740  
FXUS63 KEAX 242333  
AFDEAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO  
633 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2017  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2017  
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER WEST AND CENTRAL MO ASSOCIATED A LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM OVER SE MO WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET. DUE TO THE SCATTERED  
NATURE OF THESE SHOWERS POPS REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON. CLOUDY SKIES AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN KEEP  
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL AS THIS TREND CHANGES GOING  
INTO THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT WITH  
LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE, SETTING UP THE LIKELIHOOD OF PATCHY TO AREA  
FOG FORMATION OVER MOST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. THE LOWEST  
VISIBILITIES LOOK TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE CALM WINDS OVER THE  
CENTRAL PORTION OF OUR CWA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH WITH  
WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHING INTO THE AREA ALONG A WEAK RIDGE  
BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW CLEAR SKIES AND  
TEMPERATURES TO REACH BACK UP INTO THE NORMAL RANGE, MID 70S, FOR  
THURSDAY.  
 
THE RIDGING WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST WITH A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL  
PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INITIATES A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN  
FOR THE WEEKEND. A MINOR SHORTWAVE EJECTS INTO WESTERN KS THURSDAY  
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY HELPING TO SPIN UP A NOCTURNAL MCS TYPE FEATURE  
THAT RUNS ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER JUST CLIPPING NW MO FRIDAY  
MORNING. NAM IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND BRINGS THE FEATURE  
THROUGH THE AREA CAUSING POPS TO LOWER AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE  
OVER THE AREA WITH THE UNCERTAINTY. LOW PRESSURE OVER OK WILL  
START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF A WEAK  
WARM FRONT OVER OUT SOUTHERN CWA. SOME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS  
ARE POSSIBLE IF THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT TO WEAKEN AND BREAK THE  
CAPPING INVERSION NEAR 800HPA WHICH IS STILL LOOKING LIKE A LOW  
POSSIBILITY.  
 
A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT  
WHICH WILL HELP DEVELOP A LOW OVER OK AND ONCE AGAIN SIGNAL A MCS  
FORMING UP ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER. STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND  
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THIS FEATURE WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD  
OF IT MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE CWA SATURDAY LATE MORNING. AN AXIS OF  
HIGHER MUCAPE OF 2000 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 50KTS WILL BE PLENTY  
OF FUEL TO INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER. LARGE HAIL AND  
DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT AS THIS FEATURE PUSHES  
THROUGH. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL  
PRIME THE SOUTHERN CWA FOR A ROUND OF POTENTIAL SEVERE CONVECTION IF  
THE MCS STAYS FAR ENOUGH NORTH IN THE MORNING. A WARM FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY WILL LIE RIGHT ALONG I-70 FROM CENTRAL MO THROUGH ST. LOUIS  
IN THE AFTERNOON PROVIDING SOME 0-1KM SRH IN THAT REGION. SBCAPE  
NEAR 2500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR ABOVE 40KTS WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR  
SEVERE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA  
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL  
MOVE SOUTH RAPIDLY CLEARING OUT THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY  
LEAVING A PRECIP FREE DAY IN THE MID 70S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A  
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY MO  
INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS  
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2017  
 
SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS,  
LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS WILL  
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING, POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOG  
TO DEVELOP WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHTEST. WHILE THE MOST WIDESPREAD,  
DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE TERMINALS, A FEW  
HOURS OF LIGHT FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES. ANY FOG  
THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL MIX OUT QUICKLY AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF  
THE SSE THURSDAY MORNING, LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER  
OF THE DAY.  
 

 
   
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...BARHAM  
AVIATION...LAFLIN  
 
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