786  
FXUS63 KEAX 172013  
AFDEAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO  
313 PM CDT TUE JUL 17 2018  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE JUL 17 2018  
 
MESSAGE OF THE DAY: A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF STORMS POSSIBLE THIS WEEK  
WHICH COULD BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN (0.5 INCH TO 1.25 INCH) WITH  
HEAVIER AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN MO.  
 
A MCV IS STILL MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA, UNFORTUNATELY THOUGH,  
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT EVAPORATED AS IT MOVED  
INTO OUR AREA THANKS TO DRY AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE EAST. SOME  
HAVE BEEN LUCKY THOUGH WITH THE PRECIPITATION KEEPING IT TOGETHER IN  
OUR NORTHWEST AND TO OUR SOUTHWEST. PWAT VALUES ARE NEAR 2.00  
INCHES, WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, SO THOSE AREAS  
SHOULD BE SEEING DECENT RAIN MAKERS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO  
WEAKEN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, EVENTUALLY FIZZLING OUT THIS EVENING  
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FADES AWAY INTO THE UPPER-LEVEL  
PATTERN. BEFORE THIS HAPPENS THOUGH, THE STORM CLUSTER SHOULD  
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST PROVIDING SOME RAIN CHANCES FOR THOSE  
ALONG THE MO/KS BORDER. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS  
SYSTEM, BUT ISOLATED FLOODING SHOULD BE KEPT IN MIND AS A POSSIBLE  
CONCERN. GIVEN THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS THOUGH, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN  
MO AND KS, THIS RAIN SHOULD BE MORE BENEFICIAL THAN HARMFUL.  
 
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
FORECAST AREA, WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY SETTING UP WITH A SUBTLE  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE, BUT SEVERE  
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY RIGHT NOW. OVERNIGHT,  
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, A MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TAKE  
SHAPE AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL GENERATE A MCS  
OVER THE SD REGION, WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY HEAD TOWARD MO AND KS.  
THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS WEEK FOR EVERYONE, THOUGH  
NORTHERN MO IS IN THE BEST POSITION TO SEE THIS PRECIPITATION RIGHT  
NOW. GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ROUND, BUT LOCALIZED  
FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY  
RAINFALL EXPECTED AND PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP TABS  
ON SOIL CONDITIONS TO SEE HOW EARLIER RAINS MAY CHANGE THINGS, BUT  
AGAIN, GIVEN THE CURRENT DROUGHT SITUATION, THESE RAINS SHOULD BE  
MORE BENEFICIAL.  
 
THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO OUR  
AREA FRIDAY MORNING, THOUGH, THERE ISN'T GREAT CONSENSUS AMONG THE  
NAM, ECMWF, AND GFS. THE NAM KEEPS US DRY, WITH THE ECMWF GETTING  
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WET, AND GFS GETTING THE ENTIRE AREA VERY  
WET. ALL THREE SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE LARGER  
UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM, IT IS MORE OF A MATTER OF WHERE IT WILL SET UP.  
WHEREVER IT DOES, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.  
 
TEMPERATURE-WISE, WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE OUR COOLEST DAY, WITH HIGHS  
IN THE UPPER 80S AND THURSDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY AS WE ENTER THE  
WARM SECTOR OF THE SURFACE LOW. A 'COLD FRONT' IS SCHEDULE TO MOVE  
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY, BUT UNFORTUNATELY IT WON'T DO MUCH TO THE  
TEMPERATURES. THIS WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA,  
KEEPING THINGS DRY, AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT TUE JUL 17 2018  
 
A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX HAS BEEN WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST  
THIS MORNING, JUST NOW ENTERING OUR NORTHWEST CORNER AND SLIDING  
TO OUR SOUTHWEST. MOST OF THE SYSTEM HAS DISSIPATED AS IT HAS RUN  
INTO DRY AIR. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS  
AFTERNOON THOUGH IT'LL BE MORE SCATTERED THAN WIDESPREAD.  
LIGHTNING WILL BE PRESENT BUT ISOLATED. STORM CHANCES WILL  
DECREASE AROUND SUNSET. CEILINGS AND VIS SHOULD STAY VFR BUT A  
STORM WITH HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE VISIBILITIES TO DROP  
TEMPORARILY. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORM IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF  
PERIOD THOUGH THERE IS NOT GREAT CONSENSUS RIGHT NOW.  
 

 
   
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...GRANA  
AVIATION...GRANA  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab MO Page
The Nexlab KS Page Main Text Page