621  
FXUS63 KEAX 010839  
AFDEAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO  
339 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
* PLEASANT CONDITIONS TODAY, WITH NEAR-NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S,  
BUT COMFORTABLE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 60S.  
 
* GRADUAL WARMING AND INCREASING HUMIDITY THROUGH REMAINDER OF WEEK.  
- 4TH OF JULY: HEAT INDEX VALUES CREEP BACK TOWARD THE UPPER 90S  
 
* NEXT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS MAY RETURN AS EARLY AS 4TH OF  
JULY EVENING, BUT BEST CHANCES MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE WEEKEND.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
 
AFTER THE LAST FEW DAYS, A WELCOME COUPLE/FEW DAYS OF QUIET AND  
LARGELY SEASONABLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS HAVE ARRIVED.  
 
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS BROADLY TRANSITIONED FROM THE ZONAL FLOW OF  
RECENT DAYS TO MORE OF A WESTERN RIDGE - EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN,  
THOUGH A WEAKLY CLOSED LOW IS SITUATED JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST  
AS WELL. THIS HAS PLACED THE REGION WITHIN NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND  
QUIET, CLEAR CONDITIONS. SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPMENT ON THE HEELS OF  
THE MID-UPPER TROUGH HAS DROPPED INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, BROADLY  
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TO EASTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. GIVEN  
THE LACK OF STRONG FEATURES/DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW, THIS SURFACE  
HIGH IS QUITE BROAD AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RATHER WEAK.  
BECAUSE OF THAT, AIR MASS CHANGE HAS BEEN SLOW AND GRADUAL,  
PREDOMINANTLY IN THE FORM OF FALLING/DRIER DEW POINTS. DO CONTINUE  
TO EXPECT DEW POINTS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS  
THE AREA TODAY, WHICH WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE COMFORTABLE. MODEST  
850MB COOLING, ONLY INTO THE MID-TEENS DEG C, AND STRONG DIURNAL  
HEATING UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WILL KEEP  
TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE IN THE MID 80S ("NORMAL" THIS TIME OF THE  
YEAR IS MID 80S FOR THE MOST PART). BUT AGAIN, MORE COMFORTABLE WITH  
THE LOWER DEW POINTS.  
 
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK,  
PUSHING RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. FORTUNATELY, EML IS NOT  
EXPECTED TO SUBSTANTIAL LOCALLY, EVEN AS THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES  
CENTERED OVERHEAD AROUND FRIDAY/4TH OF JULY. EXPECTATION FOR MID-  
UPPER TEENS 850MB VALUES LOCALLY, BUT INTO THE LOWER 20S DEG C JUST  
TO OUR WEST. AT THE SURFACE, EASTWARD DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH WILL  
ALLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN WEDNESDAY ONWARD, AIDING IN GRADUAL  
WARMING AND INCREASING DEW POINTS. GIVEN THE LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL  
THERMAL RIDGING AND HO-HUM SOUTHERLY FLOW THERE IS NO CURRENT  
EXPECTATION FOR OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. IT WILL BE SEASONABLY  
WARM THOUGH WITH A MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES  
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND  
DEW POINTS CREEPING BACK INTO THE LOW 70S PUSHING HEAT INDEX VALUES  
TO THE MID-UPPER 90S. AGAIN, NOT TRULY OPPRESSIVE, BUT ENOUGH TO  
WARRANT AT LEAST SOME CAUTION GIVEN THE PLETHORA OF OUTDOOR  
ACTIVITIES EXPECTED WITH THE 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY.  
 
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN GRADUALLY SHIFTING, SO TOO DOES THE  
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CUTOFF UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS  
TOO IS WHERE UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO GROW IN THE FORECAST. CONFIDENCE  
IS HIGH IN THIS FEATURE GRADUALLY BEING ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER  
PATTERN, BUT GIVEN ITS RATHER WEAK NATURE IN THE FIRST PLACE,  
SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE IS NOT FULL LOCK-STEP WITH ONE ANOTHER IN HOW THIS  
FEATURE EVOLVES THROUGH THE WEEK, INCLUDING TIMING. THIS RESULTS IN  
REINTRODUCTION OF LOW END (<30%) NBM POPS AS EARLY AS FRIDAY PM OVER  
WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA, AND FURTHER SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE  
WEEKEND. WHETHER OR NOT FRIDAY EVENING MAY REMAIN DRY FOR VARIOUS  
PYROTECHNIC ACTIVITIES WILL LIKELY HINGE ON ARRIVAL TIME OF REMNANT  
UPPER CUTOFF LOW (BY THEN A BROAD AND FILLING OPEN WAVE) FOR BROAD  
SCALE LIFT TO OVERCOME AN EXPECTED CAP. POINT SOUNDINGS THAT FAR OUT  
DEPICT A WEAK CAP IN PLACE FRIDAY AND WEAK OVERALL DEEP LAYER SHEAR,  
SUGGESTING MORE OF AN AIR MASS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VS WIDESPREAD.  
SHOULD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NOT RESULT FOR MUCH (OR ALL) OF THE AREA  
FRIDAY EVENING, CHANCES WILL CARRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THIS  
BROAD/WEAK LIFT OVERSPREADS AND PASSES THE AREA. THE THREAT FOR ANY  
STRONG/SEVERE APPEARS QUITE LOW AT THIS POINT, BUT THE PLETHORA OF  
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES EXPECTED FRIDAY (4TH) THROUGH THE WEEKEND WOULD  
STILL WARRANT PAYING ATTENTION TO FORECASTS AND STORMS FOR  
LIGHTNING.  
 
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE WEEKEND SIMILAR TO THE  
4TH HOLIDAY, UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S AND MID-UPPER 90S RESPECTIVELY AS  
UPPER LEVELS APPEAR POISED TO TRANSITION BACK TOWARD A MORE ZONAL  
STANCE AND JET DISPLACED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA.  
A LIKELY WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL ALLOW  
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER/STORM CHANCES, BUT CONFIDENCE AT THIS DISTANCE  
IS QUITE LOW FOR ITS LOCATION/PROGRESSION.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025  
 
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING WILL FAVOR LOW LYING AREAS WITH GOOD  
RADIATIVE CONDITIONS. EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF TUESDAY  
MORNING GIVING WAY TO SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AND A  
LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND.  
 
 
   
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
MO...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...CURTIS  
AVIATION...BT  
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