888
FXUS63 KEAX 240533
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1233 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2008
..UPDATED AVIATION
DISCUSSION
/408 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008/
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
CUMULUS CLOUD DECK HAS BECOME RATHER EXPANSIVE ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. THE BROKEN CLOUD
COVER HAS HELD TEMPERATURES BACK THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S BENEATH THE CLOUD SHIELD.
THE STRONG UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WEST HAS BEGUN TO BREAK DOWN AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...A
MID LEVEL BAND OF MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BAROCLINIC
ZONE IS POSITIONED OVER NORTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS
AFTERNOON. STILL CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPING IN THIS
ZONE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...SO KEPT SLIGHT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THIS EVENING.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA
HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NOW
PUSHING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA. FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT...AS THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. THIS
SHOULD INITIATE A COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER NORTHEAST/EASTERN NEBRASKA
THAT SHOULD PUSH ACROSS IOWA...AND HEAD SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHERN/NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUE TOWARD CENTRAL MISSOURI DURING THE
DAYTIME.
A SURFACE FRONT WILL START TO SINK SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS AND
NORTHERN MISSOURI THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE FOCUS OF THE FRONT
AND UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY HEADING SOUTHEAST WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
A SLIGHT WARMUP IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN SEVERAL DEGREES OF THE SEASONAL
NORMALS.
STOFLET
MEDIUM RANGE (SAT-WED)
APPEARS THAT JUST AS CURRENT EASTERN GREAT LAKES TROUGH IS LIFTING
TO THE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THAT REGION...ANOTHER STRONG UPR-TROUGH
IS POISED TO TAKE ITS PLACE DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE. THIS SECOND TROUGH WILL LIKELY SEND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN CWA BY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH MODELS
INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER MCS TO AFFECT THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. FOR NOW...HAVE INTRODUCED LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS FRONT
WILL REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA.
WITH VERY ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
CONTINUING WELL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECTING LOCAL WEATHER TO
REMAIN SOMEWHAT CHAOTIC WITH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS A BIG STRUGGLE
EACH DAY. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS MORE NW FLOW INDUCED MCS ACTIVITY WILL BE LIKELY.
HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN APPEAR TO FOCUS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND ARE FAR FROM EASY TO PREDICT AS
WELL...WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM MCS ACTIVITY...RESIDUAL LOW-LVL
MOISTURE AND LOCATIONS OF APPARENT FRONTS WILL PLAY HAVOC WITH AREA
READINGS. CAN SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDE ARRAY OF READINGS FROM
SW TO NE OVER THE CWA BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FOR NOW WOULD LIKE
TO KEEP WARMEST READINGS IN SW CORNER WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD REACH
THE LOW TO MID 90S BOTH DAYS. FURTHER TO THE NE...AFOREMENTIONED
FACTORS COME MORE INTO PLAY WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES PLAYING A
BIGGER ROLE. HOWEVER...SUNDAY AND MONDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL TO BE EXCESSIVELY WARM ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA. BEYOND MONDAY...FAR TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS TO
MODIFY EITHER POPS OR TEMPERATURES MUCH PAST CLIMATOLOGY.
31
AVIATION
SCT-BKN 3500-4500FT CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
BKN-OVC CIGS PREVAILING JUST EAST OF KC TAF SITES. DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA WILL LIKELY
SPREAD INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND INCLUDED A CB AND TEMPO TSRA GROUP AT THE KSTJ FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BUT HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE KC
SITES...THINKING AREA MAY SHIFT FARTHER EAST ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL
JET. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH.
33
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
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