442  
FXUS63 KEAX 192329  
AFDEAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO  
529 PM CST THU JAN 19 2017  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST THU JAN 19 2017  
 
THE MAIN CONCERN AGAIN TONIGHT CENTERS AROUND FOG POTENTIAL. WARM,  
MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE UPPER LOW  
SPINNING TO OUR WEST. AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL THIS EVENING AND  
THE BOUNDARY LAYER QUICKLY SATURATES, VISIBILITIES SHOULD QUICKLY  
DROP AND DENSE FOG LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY. THIS SHOULD  
OCCUR FIRST OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHERE  
VISIBILITIES JUST NORTH OF STATE LINE ARE VERY POOR ALREADY. FOG  
SHOULD THEN BUILD FURTHER SOUTH WITH TIME, EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASSING  
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PERSISTING TO AT  
LEAST LATE TOMORROW MORNING. GIVEN THE HIGH PROBABILITY OF DENSE  
FOG ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR  
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TOMORROW MORNING.  
 
THAT UPPER LOW SHOULD SLOWLY PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT  
AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOW LEVELS,  
WARM, MOIST ADVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AND IT  
MAY NOT BE UNTIL TOMORROW EVENING THAT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS  
TO ERODE AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA, PROVIDING JUST  
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO ERODE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. GIVEN THAT TOMORROW  
LOOKS CLOUDY FOR MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE DAY, HAVE TRENDED  
TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES.  
 
FOR THE WEEKEND, SATURDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK MILD WITH HIGHS  
APPROACHING 60 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST  
AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT,  
HELPING TO GET THE REGION BACK TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPS. HIGHS SUNDAY  
SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MOD 40S COMPARED TO THE LOW 50S TO NEAR 60  
DEGREES.  
 
FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST, THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT  
WEEK, BROAD TROUGHING WILL SPREAD FROM THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE  
MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. WHILE IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SEVERAL  
EMBEDDED AREAS OF VORTICITY, THE LEADING WAVE LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE  
AREA TUESDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR  
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE  
WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP WINTRY WEATHER AT BAY. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE  
IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE  
WAVE BUT ALL THE MODELS SHOW AN UNFAVORABLE TRACK FOR WINTRY WEATHER  
UNTIL AFTER THE LOW PASSES AND WE SEE ANY LIGHT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE  
IN THE COLD SIDE OF THE STORM. TEMPERATURES LOOK COLDER ON THE BACK  
SIDE OF THE TROUGH, OWING TO RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN  
PACIFIC/WEST COAST AND NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF COUNTRY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 529 PM CST THU JAN 19 2017  
 
LONG DURATION IFR TO CONTINUE MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH  
SOME IMPROVEMENT TO LOW-END MVFR LIKELY AFTER THE 18Z TIME FRAME.  
DURING THE OVERNIGHT, EXPECT TRENDS TO FALL BELOW ALTERNATE MIN  
THRESHOLDS, AND AT TIMES BELOW AIRFIELD MINS, ESPECIALLY DURING  
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS. MODELS  
CONTINUE TO INDICATE RISING CIGS AFTER 18Z WHICH COMBINED WITH  
IMPROVED VSBYS AFTER 15Z, SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT  
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH  
THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HRS, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5-10  
KTS RETURNING DURING BY AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR  
KSZ057-060-103>105.  
 
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR KSZ025-102.  
 
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR  
MOZ021-022-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.  
 
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-  
020-023>025.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...CDB  
AVIATION...32  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab MO Page
The Nexlab KS Page Main Text Page