735  
FXUS63 KEAX 261123  
AFDEAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO  
623 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016  
 
COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA WILL DROP DOWN TOWARD  
THE I-70 CORRIDOR BY THIS EVENING. A LOSS OF ORGANIZED CONVERGENCE  
ALONG THE FRONT HAS CAUSED A LOT OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM  
ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN ACROSS NORTHERN MO EARLY THIS MORNING, AND THIS  
LACK OF FORCING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES  
SOUTH. THIS COMBINED WITH ONLY WEAK/MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK  
SHEAR WILL ACT AGAINST WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED STORMS LATER TODAY,  
ALTHOUGH THE PRESENCE OF A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT  
STORMS COMBINED WITH A LACK OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND A WEAK WAVE  
MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL KS COULD STILL ALLOW SCATTERED CONVECTION TO  
DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS FROM CENTRAL KS INTO CENTRAL MO THROUGHOUT THE  
DAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH, UP TO 2 INCHES, SO  
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN REMAINS A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY STORMS THAT  
DEVELOP. HOWEVER, THE LACK OF ORGANIZED FORCING AND WIND SHEAR WILL  
ACT AGAINST WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT SO A LOT OF AREAS ARE LIKELY  
TO MISS OUT ON MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM.  
 
DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT TODAY AND TONIGHT, 850 HPA  
TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR 20 C WHICH WILL STILL SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR 90  
DEGREES BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER, BY TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL  
RIDGE WILL DEEPEN TO THE WEST, PUTTING THE AREA IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW  
ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO SETTLE IN FROM  
THE NORTH SO THAT HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE  
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS IN THE  
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.  
 
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS EARLY  
AS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND AS  
SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES DROP INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER,  
WEDNESDAY'S RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO SHIFT WEST DUE TO THE PRESENCE  
OF LOW-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.  
THIS RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST LATER IN THE WEEK WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE  
STORM TRACK TO SHIFT FURTHER EAST INTO OUR AREA.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016  
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS  
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE  
REGION. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SCATTERED ENOUGH IN NATURE THAT MORE  
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THAN NOT. ANY STORMS THAT DO IMPACT A TERMINAL  
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED.  
 

 
   
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...HAWBLITZEL  
AVIATION...HAWBLITZEL  
 
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