612  
FXUS63 KEAX 292337  
AFDEAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO  
637 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 409 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016  
 
TAIL END OF AUGUST CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER WET, AT LEAST FOR THE  
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BUBBLING UP TODAY  
ACROSS THE REGION AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS UP AND REACHES THE  
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. THUS FAR, THE LACK OF ORGANIZING SHEAR HAS  
MEANT THAT STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ARE GOING UP AND RAINING THEMSELVES  
OUT, PUSHING OUT A LITTLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT HELPS THE NEXT SET  
OF STORMS TO GET GOING. EXPECTATIONS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON  
ARE THAT MUCH OF THE BUBBLING ACTIVITY WILL SUBSIDE AS THE SUN SETS  
AND WE LOSE OUR INSOLATION. HOWEVER, STEPPING BACK TO LOOK AT THE  
BIGGER PICTURE, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED EXITING THE FOUR CORNERS  
REGION NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY, WHICH WILL HELP FOCUS  
THE NOCTURNAL JET ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH A NOTABLE WARM AIR WING  
OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH NORTHERN MISSOURI  
OVERNIGHT.  
 
FOR TONIGHT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WELL  
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOUR WITH THE HELP OF PERSISTENT WARM AIR  
ADVECTION. CURRENT SET OF MODEL RUNS, PLUS SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA,  
ALL POINT AT THE BUBBLING AFTERNOON STORMS FADING OUT THIS EVENING  
WITH REMNANT STORMS CONGEALING INTO A SMALL COMPLEX IN SOUTHEAST  
NEBRASKA. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND 2 INCHES, AND  
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS, EXPECTATIONS  
ARE THAT THE ADVERTISED ACTIVITY FOR OVERNIGHT WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR  
FLASH FLOODING UP ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHWEST  
MISSOURI AS ANY STORMS TONIGHT WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS. AS A  
RESULT, HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF EXTREME  
NORTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI TO GO TONIGHT THROUGH THE  
DAY TUESDAY.  
 
SPEAKING OF TUESDAY...STORMS MAY BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING FROM  
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY THAT WAS FUELED BY THE NOCTURNAL JET, OR SOME  
OUTFLOW FEATURE FROM ACTIVITY IN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. EITHER WAY,  
MORE STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING  
THE DAY TUESDAY WITH A LOT OF FOCUS ON NORTHERN MISSOURI. AS A  
RESULT, KEPT FLASH FLOOD WARNING GOING OUT THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY.  
 
WEDNESDAY...STORMS WILL SETTLE SOUTH WITH A POSSIBLE BOUNDARY ACROSS  
CENTRAL MISSOURI --FROM TUESDAY'S ACTIVITY-- THAT WILL LIKELY RESULT  
IN, AT A MINIMUM, PART OF A DAY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THESE  
STORMS WILL LIKELY BRING STILL MORE HEAVY RAIN.  
 
AFTER WEDNESDAY...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLING SOUTH WE WILL  
FINALLY DRY OUT THE REGION FOR A FEW DAYS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER  
VALUES FALL TO LESS THAN 1 INCH, WHICH WILL BE A NICE CHANGE FROM  
THE HUMIDITY OF LATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW DAYS OF COOLER  
TEMPERATURES --HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S--. NEXT BIG CHANCE FOR  
STORMS THEN LOOKS TO ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016  
 
AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, THOUGH EXPECTING  
TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THAT TIME, STORMS  
MAY DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING FROM THE SOUTH, THOUGH  
THINKING THAT BETTER FORCING WILL REMAIN OVER NW MISSOURI TONIGHT.  
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE SAME  
BOUNDARY, AND MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE THIS INTO THE FORECAST CLOSER TO  
THE TIME, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW STORMS WILL DEVELOP.  
 

 
   
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR KSZ025-102.  
 
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR MOZ001-002-011-012-  
020.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...CUTTER  
AVIATION...WELSH  
 
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