618
FXUS63 KEAX 220458
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1058 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW (20 TO 40 PERCENT) LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-70. A DUSTING UP
TO HALF AN INCH IS EXPECTED WITH AREAS IN NORTHEAST MO MOST
LIKELY TO SEE THE HIGHER AMOUNTS.
- SLIGHT WARM UP ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA DROPPING TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
A SURFACE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY RESULTING IN
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS WITH CLEAR SKIES. AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES
ITS TRACK TO THE EAST THIS EVENING, A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER MANITOBA WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST
OVER MN. THIS WILL KEEP OUR WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH WHICH WILL
PROMOTE WARM ADVECTION. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE UPPER TEENS, MUCH WARMER THAN
THE BONE-CHILLING TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO BE IN THE 30S FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGIN TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA, FAIRLY WEAK BROAD-SCALE LIFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-70. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT
THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO ABOUT HALF AN INCH
WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME AREAS SEEING UP TO AN INCH. AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY-36 ARE ANTICIPATED TO SEE THE HIGHER END OF
THAT RANGE, CLOSER TO THE STRONGER LIFT WITH THE ATTENDANT SYSTEM.
COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST MO (SUCH AS SCHUYLER, ADAIR, PUTNAM, AND
SULLIVAN) HAVE THE BEST CHANCES (UP TO A 20 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR
SEEING UP TO AN INCH. THE LREF HAS BEEN TRENDING DOWN WITH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WITH MORE RECENT MODEL RUNS. ONE OF THE LIMITING FACTORS
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE LACK OF MOISTURE. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
PWATS RANGE AROUND .25 INCHES WHICH IS IN THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR IS THE TRACK OF THE MID-
LEVEL TROUGH. IF THE TROUGH AXIS WERE TO DIP FURTHER SOUTH, THIS
COULD ALLOW STRONGER LIFT INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME,
HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE IN AREAS TO THE NORTH OF OUR
CWA.
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES FARTHER EAST AND A QUICK-MOVING SURFACE HIGH
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST, EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY TO DROP ~10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO
LOW 30S ACROSS THE AREA. BY LATE EVENING THURSDAY, THE SURFACE RIDGE
WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. OUR WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH, RESULTING IN NEAR
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY, HOWEVER, THE MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS
THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND PRECIP CHANCES WELL TO OUR SOUTH. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SUNDAY SYSTEM, EXPECT SUNDAY HIGHS TO BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY. A SURFACE HIGH MOVES JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE AREA SHIFTING OUR WINDS TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ALLOWING
FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. AFTER 18Z, WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUG THE NORTHWEST COULD PRODUCE LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES, AND TEMPORARY REDUCED VISIBILITIES, EAST OF A
LINE FROM LAMONI IA TO MOBERLY MO.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...COLLIER
AVIATION...BT
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