716  
FXUS63 KEAX 250509  
AFDEAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO  
1209 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016  
 
THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ENTERS THE  
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITIONED  
OVER THE WEST COAST. EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS STABILIZED THE  
ENVIRONMENT, AND GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY NEAR-TERM FORCING OR  
TRIGGERING MECHANISMS IN PLACE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION, HAVE  
REDUCED POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY  
EVENING HOURS. THOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW  
THINGS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, EXPECTING TO SEE STORMS MERGING INTO  
AN MCS OVER NW KANSAS, MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LEE-SIDE  
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP BY LATE THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN KANSAS,  
WITH A DRYLINE RUNNING SOUTH INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. MODELS ARE  
STILL IN DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE TIMING AND POSITION OF OVERNIGHT  
CONVECTION, THOUGH GENERALLY THINKING THAT STORMS WILL FIRE  
ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER SW KANSAS AND BEGIN TO MERGE AS THEY CROSS  
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. SEVERAL FACTORS WILL BE AT PLAY HERE, WHICH  
COULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY FOR NW  
MISSOURI. THE SURFACE LOW WILL PROPAGATE TO THE NE AHEAD THE LOW-  
LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT THROUGHOUT NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL OCCUR  
IN AN AREA OF INCREASED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES, APPROXIMATELY  
150% OF NORMAL. AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT DRAPED OVER THE KS/NE  
BORDER, COMBINED WITH AN EASTWARD STORM MOTION PARALLEL WITH THE  
BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO TRAINING STORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT  
APPROACHES NW MISSOURI. THE AFOREMENTIONED, COUPLE WITH A WEAK  
SHORTWAVE ON THE CREST OF AN EASTWARD MOVING RIDGE OVER THIS AREA  
WILL PRODUCE A POSSIBLE MADDOX FRONTAL TYPE EVENT TONIGHT.  
CONSIDERING THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THINGS COME TOGETHER,  
THE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY PRESENT FOR OVERNIGHT FLASH FLOODING AS  
THE MCS ENTERS THE WESTERN CWA.  
 
MUCH OF WHAT THEN DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL DEPEND ON  
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY, THOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE  
OF SEVERE POTENTIAL, PARTICULARLY ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES  
PRESENT. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MORE SUPPORTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR  
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS WILL RIPEN THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL  
AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS  
WILL AGAIN DEPEND ON HOW STABLE THE ENVIRONMENT IS AND WHETHER OR  
NOT IT CAN RECOVER FROM MORNING CONVECTION.  
 
SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW  
APPROACHES NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY THURSDAY MORNING. UPPER-LEVEL  
DYNAMICS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES THURSDAY  
AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-70 AS 0-6KM SHEAR  
VALUES APPROACH 40+ KNOTS. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN APPROACH  
WESTERN KANSAS BY FRIDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES SW IOWA  
INTO SATURDAY. AS A RESULT, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO  
THE WEEKEND, WITH PERHAPS A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY SUNDAY AS MID-  
LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL  
THEN CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER DEEPENING TROUGH SETTLES  
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016  
 
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN  
06-09Z AS ACTIVITY FROM CENTRAL KANSAS SPREADS EASTWARD. THIS  
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MVFR AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR  
RESTRICTIONS. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING  
HOWEVER VARIABLE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  
SHWRS/STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL  
JET INCREASES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS. LOW CIGS IN THE MVFR  
RANGE LOOK TO MAKE A RETURN AFTER 12Z...WITH CATEGORICAL IMPROVEMENTS  
BACK TO VFR EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF  
SHWRS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE FCST PERIOD HOWEVER LOW  
CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES MENTION FOR THE TIME BEING.  
 

 
   
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...WELSH  
AVIATION...32  
 
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