109  
FXUS63 KEAX 250536  
AFDEAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO  
1236 AM CDT SAT MAR 25 2017  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT FRI MAR 24 2017  
 
MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL  
FOR STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE  
LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH MODEL  
ANALYSIS INDICATES SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION, ON-  
AND-OFF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AND THICK CLOUD COVER HAVE  
MUDDIED LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY, AND THERMAL RIDGING AHEAD OF THE  
850-700 HPA LOW HAS ALSO KEPT MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAK. IN  
ADDITION, THE RECENT DIMINISHMENT OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY SEEMS TO  
INDICATE A STABILIZING ATMOSPHERE. MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE  
PRESENT OFF TO THE WEST AND MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE  
INITIATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT EVEN ROBUST  
STORMS COULD STRUGGLE ONCE THEY MOVE INTO THE WORKED-OVER AIRMASS  
IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE, ALTHOUGH THE STRONG/MARGINALLY  
SEVERE THREAT CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT FOR THIS EVENING, IT  
IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY AS THE DAY WEARS ON.  
 
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP  
AROUND THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT  
TRAVELS SOUTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, EXTENDING THE  
SCATTERED STORM CHANCES INTO AT LEAST EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH TOMORROW UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AND  
NORTHWEST WINDS, BUT WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60S FOR SUNDAY AS WE  
DRY OUT.  
 
THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY  
AS A QUICKLY-FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN  
CONUS. THE SURFACE LOW WILL NOT WRAP UP NEARLY AS MUCH AS WITH  
THIS SYSTEM, THEREFORE THE COMBINATION OF A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERN  
TRACK AND NOT AS MUCH PRECIPITATION WRAPPING AROUND WILL RESULT IN  
A QUICK ROUND OF SHOWERS, MOST OF WHICH WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF I-70.  
A MORE POTENT SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE REGION  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, AND IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO AGAIN  
TREK FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE UP I-44. PWATS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE  
QUITE HIGH AND MODELS ARE PRODUCING FAIRLY HIGH QPF, BUT THERE IS  
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH WHERE THE LOW WILL TRACK AND HOW FAR  
EAST IT IS WHEN IT BEGINS TO REALLY DEEPEN AND WRAP UP, SO WILL  
NOT COMMIT TO ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS YET. OVERALL, NOT TOO CONCERNED  
ABOUT FLOODING EVEN AFTER SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL, AS TODAY'S  
RAIN SHOULD BE QUICKLY ABSORBED INTO THE DRY GROUND, SUNDAY  
NIGHT'S AMOUNTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE, AND THERE SHOULD BE  
ENOUGH LAG TIME BEFORE THE NEXT STRONGER SYSTEM.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SAT MAR 25 2017  
 
VICINITY RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD  
AND WILL EXTEND INTO MUCH OF SATURDAY AS THE OVERALL STORM SYSTEM  
SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST. IFR CEILINGS WILL APPROACH THE TERMINALS  
FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY SATURDAY AND LIKELY LINGER OVER THE AREA  
UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS  
WILL RETURN SATURDAY EVENING WHILE SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN  
MOSTLY OUT OF THE NORTH.  
 

 
   
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...LAFLIN  
AVIATION...WELSH  
 
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