875  
FXUS63 KEAX 111103  
AFDEAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO  
503 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2016  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2016  
 
WARM ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING  
MUCH, IF AT ALL, TONIGHT AND LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING  
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR AT FREEZING ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI. WITH  
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RISE EARLY THIS MORNING, THE  
THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS DECREASING AND MAY ONLY BE CONFINED TO  
LOCALIZED AREAS IN FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND  
SUNRISE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY MID LAYER BELOW AN  
ICE CRYSTAL BEARING LAYER AND ABOVE THE SATURATED WARM ADVECTION. SO  
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE INDICATE ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY  
BE DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. BUT THERE MAY BE SOME SEEDER-FEEDER  
MECHANISM AT WORK AS WELL TODAY SO POCKETS OF RAIN OR SNOW, MAINLY  
EARLY THIS MORNING WHEN TEMPERATURES SUPPORT IT, APPEAR POSSIBLE AS  
WELL.  
 
FOR MONDAY, WITH THE COOLER SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY TRAVERSING THE  
AREA, TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET BACK TO CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES WITH  
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S EXPECTED. BUT ANOTHER BLAST OF COLD AIR WILL  
SWEEP INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO  
THE 20S BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE WARMUP DURING THE DAY AS COLD  
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THAT COLD HIGH GETS  
REINFORCED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S EXPECTED FOR BOTH  
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  
 
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, MODELS MOVE A DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE MIDDLE  
OF THE COUNTRY. THIS PRODUCES A CHALLENGING FORECAST AS THERE HAS  
BEEN SIGNIFICANT MODEL RUN TO RUN CHANGES LEADING TO A LOW  
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. FOR NOW, THE DEEPENING TROUGH DEVELOPS A RATHER  
STRONG SURFACE LOW. STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND  
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SUGGEST TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY MAY ACTUALLY  
WARM INTO THE 40S OR EVEN CLOSE TO 50 AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH  
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH CURRENT MODELS DEPICTING THE AREA IN THE  
WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM, PRECIPITATION SHOULD TREND TO BEING OF  
LIQUID FORM. BUT THERE MAY BE A PERIOD WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES  
SUPPORT FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONALLY, FORECAST  
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A LACK OF CLOUD ICE SO IF THE LATEST MODELS WERE TO  
VERIFY, IT COULD BE ANOTHER DRIZZLE/RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE/SNOW EVENT  
DEPENDING ON THE TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FOR ICE CRYSTALS. GIVEN  
THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND LACK OF CONSISTENCY OF THE MODELS, WILL JUST  
MENTION RAIN/SNOW/MIX AT THIS TIME. THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY HAS ALSO  
LED TO POPS BEING PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. WITH THE LATEST ROUND  
OF MODELS INDICATING DRY CONDITIONS, IT'S HARD TO GO WITH HIGH CHANCE  
OR EVEN LIKELY POPS THAT WERE POPULATED. AFTER MUCH DISCUSSION WITH  
NEIGHBORING OFFICES, HAVE SETTLED FOR JUST CARRYING SLIGHT CHANCE  
POPS WITH THE MINDSET THAT MODELS COULD EASILY SWING BACK TO NEEDING  
TO CARRY HIGHER POPS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 504 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2016  
 
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR SOON AFTER SUNRISE AS  
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD IN EASTERN KANSAS  
AND WESTERN MISSOURI. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CEILINGS BETWEEN 600 AND  
900 FT BY MID MORNING WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLY LOWERING  
VISIBILITY TO AROUND 4 MILES. BY THIS AFTERNOON, A COLD FRONT WILL  
MOVE INTO THE AREA, SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND ELIMINATING  
THE IFR CEILINGS. CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON  
AS A RESULT.  
 

 
   
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...CDB  
AVIATION...CDB  
 
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