783  
FXUS63 KEAX 242327  
AFDEAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO  
627 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016  
 
A LARGE SWATH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED THIS  
AFTERNOON STRETCHING FROM TX INTO CENTRAL KS AND INTO THE DAKOTAS  
AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MOST  
OF THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING DRIVEN BY AN EXTENSIVE LOW-LEVEL JET  
STRETCHING ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS JET AND ITS ASSOCIATED  
PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY WORK THEIR WAY EASTWARD LATE THIS EVENING,  
WITH THE AXIS OF STRONGEST CONVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT NOT REACHING  
THE I-35 CORRIDOR UNTIL AFTER 9 PM OR SO. HOWEVER, THE AIRMASS OUT  
AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED, AND WITH WEAK  
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED  
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA  
UNTIL THE MAIN AXIS OF PRECIPITATION MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT.  
 
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY TRACK  
EASTWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.  
LIMITED INSTABILITY DURING THIS TIME WILL PREVENT MUCH THREAT FOR  
STRONG STORMS OR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN, ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER  
VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES COULD LEAD TO A FEW POCKETS OF AN INCH OR  
TWO OF RAINFALL ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN KS AND NORTHWEST MO.  
GENERALLY, HOWEVER, RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO STAY NEAR OR BELOW A  
HALF INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL CONTINUE  
INTO SUNDAY MORNING UNTIL THE MAIN COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH DURING  
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.  
 
BY MONDAY AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO MOST OF  
THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH ITS INFLUENCE CONTINUING INTO MOST OF THE REST  
OF THE WEEK. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF  
THE WEEK WHILE TEMPERATURES STAY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016  
 
AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD THIS EVENING,  
BEGINNING TO IMPACT ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN NOW (KSTJ) AND 01Z-02Z FOR  
THE KC AREA TAF SITES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY CONTINUE TO  
PUSH EAST, AND MAY BECOME MORE RAIN-SHOWERY WITH JUST A FEW EMBEDDED  
RUMBLES OF THUNDER BY MIDNIGHT. EVENTUALLY, A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL  
SWEEP THROUGH ALL TAF SITES AND PUSH LINGERING SHOWERS OUT OF THE  
REGION BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z SUNDAY, LEAVING BEHIND GRADUALLY CLEARING  
SKIES AND NORTHWEST WINDS.  
 

 
   
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...HAWBLITZEL  
AVIATION...LAFLIN  
 
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