786
FXUS63 KEAX 172013
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
313 PM CDT TUE JUL 17 2018
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE JUL 17 2018
MESSAGE OF THE DAY: A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF STORMS POSSIBLE THIS WEEK
WHICH COULD BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN (0.5 INCH TO 1.25 INCH) WITH
HEAVIER AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN MO.
A MCV IS STILL MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA, UNFORTUNATELY THOUGH,
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT EVAPORATED AS IT MOVED
INTO OUR AREA THANKS TO DRY AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE EAST. SOME
HAVE BEEN LUCKY THOUGH WITH THE PRECIPITATION KEEPING IT TOGETHER IN
OUR NORTHWEST AND TO OUR SOUTHWEST. PWAT VALUES ARE NEAR 2.00
INCHES, WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, SO THOSE AREAS
SHOULD BE SEEING DECENT RAIN MAKERS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, EVENTUALLY FIZZLING OUT THIS EVENING
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FADES AWAY INTO THE UPPER-LEVEL
PATTERN. BEFORE THIS HAPPENS THOUGH, THE STORM CLUSTER SHOULD
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST PROVIDING SOME RAIN CHANCES FOR THOSE
ALONG THE MO/KS BORDER. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM, BUT ISOLATED FLOODING SHOULD BE KEPT IN MIND AS A POSSIBLE
CONCERN. GIVEN THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS THOUGH, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN
MO AND KS, THIS RAIN SHOULD BE MORE BENEFICIAL THAN HARMFUL.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA, WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY SETTING UP WITH A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE, BUT SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY RIGHT NOW. OVERNIGHT,
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, A MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TAKE
SHAPE AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL GENERATE A MCS
OVER THE SD REGION, WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY HEAD TOWARD MO AND KS.
THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS WEEK FOR EVERYONE, THOUGH
NORTHERN MO IS IN THE BEST POSITION TO SEE THIS PRECIPITATION RIGHT
NOW. GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ROUND, BUT LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED AND PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP TABS
ON SOIL CONDITIONS TO SEE HOW EARLIER RAINS MAY CHANGE THINGS, BUT
AGAIN, GIVEN THE CURRENT DROUGHT SITUATION, THESE RAINS SHOULD BE
MORE BENEFICIAL.
THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO OUR
AREA FRIDAY MORNING, THOUGH, THERE ISN'T GREAT CONSENSUS AMONG THE
NAM, ECMWF, AND GFS. THE NAM KEEPS US DRY, WITH THE ECMWF GETTING
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WET, AND GFS GETTING THE ENTIRE AREA VERY
WET. ALL THREE SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE LARGER
UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM, IT IS MORE OF A MATTER OF WHERE IT WILL SET UP.
WHEREVER IT DOES, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE OUR COOLEST DAY, WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S AND THURSDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY AS WE ENTER THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE SURFACE LOW. A 'COLD FRONT' IS SCHEDULE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY, BUT UNFORTUNATELY IT WON'T DO MUCH TO THE
TEMPERATURES. THIS WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA,
KEEPING THINGS DRY, AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT TUE JUL 17 2018
A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX HAS BEEN WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST
THIS MORNING, JUST NOW ENTERING OUR NORTHWEST CORNER AND SLIDING
TO OUR SOUTHWEST. MOST OF THE SYSTEM HAS DISSIPATED AS IT HAS RUN
INTO DRY AIR. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON THOUGH IT'LL BE MORE SCATTERED THAN WIDESPREAD.
LIGHTNING WILL BE PRESENT BUT ISOLATED. STORM CHANCES WILL
DECREASE AROUND SUNSET. CEILINGS AND VIS SHOULD STAY VFR BUT A
STORM WITH HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE VISIBILITIES TO DROP
TEMPORARILY. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORM IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD THOUGH THERE IS NOT GREAT CONSENSUS RIGHT NOW.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GRANA
AVIATION...GRANA
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