371  
FXUS63 KEAX 272047  
AFDEAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO  
347 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016  
 
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT):  
 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL HELP KEEP THE  
AREA IN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.  
THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE  
PERIOD AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE FIRST  
OF THESE SHORTWAVES IS MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS  
AFTERNOON AND WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING.  
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE WEAK AS IT MOVES THROUGH  
THE AREA THIS EVENING HOWEVER, MODELS DO CONTINUE TO WANT TO DEVELOP  
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF  
THE AREA BY TOMORROW MORNING AND CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS  
THE AREA WITH JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE  
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE NEAR NORMAL BEHIND  
THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. A MCS IS EXPECTED  
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TOMORROW. THIS MCS IS  
EXPECTED TO ROLL SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS ALONG THE  
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AND WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE  
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA MAY GET CLIPPED WITH A FEW SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY  
AND FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A FEW SHORTWAVES  
TRAVERSING THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED  
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THAT PERIOD. HIGHS FRIDAY,  
WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER, WILL HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.  
 
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016  
 
THIS WEEKEND WILL SEE MOSTLY NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS THE UPPER  
LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. PERIODIC STORM CHANCES  
ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS MODELS SHOW MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES  
MOVING OVER THE CWA. THE TIMING OF THESE STORMS ARE UNCERTAIN THIS  
FAR IN ADVANCE, THOUGH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS CURRENTLY LEAN  
TOWARDS SUNDAY BEING THE WETTER DAY.  
 
HOT TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER RETURN NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL FLOW  
WILL LEVEL OUT THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL  
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, BRINGING HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE  
LOW 90S BY MONDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016  
 
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE TAF PD WITH GENERALLY FEW-SCT MID AND  
UPPER LVL CLOUDS EXPECTED. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VC OF THE  
TERMINALS BTN 06Z-09Z ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION HOWEVER CONFIDENCE  
WAS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL BE  
LGT AND VRB THRU TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE BECMG N BTN 5-10KTS.  
 

 
   
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...73  
LONG TERM...HEC/73  
AVIATION...73  
 
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