110  
FXUS63 KEAX 221640  
AFDEAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO  
1140 AM CDT TUE MAY 22 2018  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT TUE MAY 22 2018  
 
PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS  
THROUGH EASTERN IA AND INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN MO EARLY THIS MORNING;  
HOWEVER, SOME LIGHT SURFACE FLOW HAS KEPT VISIBILITIES FROM  
DROPPING FAR ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY IN FAR EASTERN PARTS OF  
THE FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS WILL ALSO CONTINUE  
TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY  
THIN AND WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES TODAY.  
 
LARGE-SCALE RIDGING WILL EXPAND AND BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS  
OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD, RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WELL  
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TODAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE  
MID 80S TO LOWER 90S EACH DAY THIS WEEK, AND THE OVERARCHING  
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE  
WORK WEEK. THE TROUGH PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED TO CARVE OUT THE EASTERN  
SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER, WETTER CONDITIONS BY  
THE WEEKEND HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD IN THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS;  
AND WHILE A "COLD" FRONT STILL PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION THIS  
WEEKEND, LACKING UPPER SUPPORT WILL RESULT IN LITTLE IMPACT ON  
TEMPERATURES AND LESSER POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.  
 
BOTH THE EC AND GFS BRING A TROPICAL SYSTEM INTO THE SOUTHEAST US  
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND WITHOUT ANY REAL  
STEERING FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS IT IS POSSIBLE  
THAT THE REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE REGION  
AS EARLY AS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE LONGEVITY  
OF THIS SYSTEM (IF IT EVEN MATERIALIZES) WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT  
ON ITS STRENGTH WHEN IT MOVES INLAND, AND SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THE  
PATTERN COULD PREVENT IT FROM REACHING EVEN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF  
MO. IN SHORT, WHILE PRECIPITATION IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR  
THE COMING WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK, THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN MAINLY  
SUPPORTS DRY CONDITIONS AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE FORE-  
SEEABLE FUTURE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CDT TUE MAY 22 2018  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR ALL  
SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH AND  
SOUTHEAST. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION  
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...LAFLIN  
AVIATION...KURTZ  
 
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