873  
FXUS63 KICT 262038  
AFDICT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS  
338 PM CDT WED APR 26 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED APR 26 2017  
 
TONIGHT:  
ANTICIPATE SHOWERS WILL EXIT AREA/DISSIPATE BY 00 UTC. MAIN ISSUE  
IS THE FROST POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL KS. APPEARS TO BE A DECENT  
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY, ESPECIALLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-70. MAIN  
CONCERN IS TIMING OF CLOUDS THAT WILL ROLL IN FROM THE WEST JUST  
ABOUT DAYBREAK IN THE FAR WEST SECTIONS. HAVE HOISTED FROST  
ADVISORY FOR THE THREE NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR NOW, WHERE CONDITIONS  
APPEAR MOST FAVORABLE.  
 
THURSDAY:  
INFLUX OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF  
RAIN TO MAINLY CENTRAL KS. GIVEN PROPENSITY OF MODELS TO BREAK OUT  
PRECIPITATION TOO FAST, TRENDED ONSET A BIT SLOWER AND CONCERNED  
THAT IT MAY NOT HAVE BEEN SLOW ENOUGH. CHANCES SHOULD RAMP UP  
FAIRLY QUICKLY AROUND 0000 UTC.  
 
FRIDAY-SATURDAY:  
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS  
EASTERN OK AND INTO MO OVER THE WEEKEND. SURFACE FRONT WILL SAG  
INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE STALLING FRIDAY NIGHT  
SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE KEY ISSUE IS THE TRACK/DEPTH OF THE UPPER  
LOW WHICH WILL IMPACT WHERE BEST OVERRUNNING AND RESULTANT HEAVY  
RAIN WILL OCCUR. GOOD MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE WARM  
SECTOR, THE ONLY QUESTION IS HOW MUCH/HOW FAR WEST THE HEAVY RAIN  
WILL OCCUR. AT THIS POINT, APPEARS THAT SOUTHEAST KS, ROUGHLY  
EAST OF HIGHWAY 75, COULD GET 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN. GIVEN MOIST  
CONDITIONS, THIS COULD LEAD TO BOTH RIVER AND AREAL FLOODING  
ISSUES OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER IF THE TRACK ENDS UP SLIGHTLY  
FARTHER EAST, THEN OF COURSE IMPACTS WOULD BE MINIMAL. IF TRACK  
DOES NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE, SUSPECT A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE  
HOISTED ON THURSDAY. INFLUX OF COLD AIR COULD LEAD TO SOME  
FLURRIES MIXING IN WITH THE LIGHT RAIN WEST OF HIGHWAY 14 IN  
CENTRAL KS SATURDAY NIGHT. -HOWERTON  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED APR 26 2017  
 
ANTICIPATE THAT LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER ON SUNDAY, AGAIN  
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLURRIES TO MIX WITH THE LIGHT RAIN  
SUNDAY MORNING IN CENTRAL KS WEST OF HIGHWAY 14. LIGHT RAIN  
SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY LINGER FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY ON THE BACK SIDE  
OF THE LOW IN THE EAST, HOWEVER CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY  
ADVANCE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE  
AND CONDITIONS DRY A BIT AT THE START OF THE WORK WEEK, BUT  
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING RENEWED PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY  
MIDWEEK. NOT OPTIMISTIC ABOUT RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY. -HOWERTON  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT WED APR 26 2017  
 
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE  
TROUGH AXIS PROPAGATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GUSTY  
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE BECOMING LIGHT AND  
VARIABLE TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
WICHITA-KICT 39 64 48 68 / 0 20 60 10  
HUTCHINSON 38 63 46 65 / 0 30 60 10  
NEWTON 37 63 47 64 / 0 20 60 10  
ELDORADO 38 63 48 68 / 0 20 60 10  
WINFIELD-KWLD 40 65 49 70 / 0 20 60 10  
RUSSELL 35 62 44 59 / 0 40 70 20  
GREAT BEND 36 63 43 62 / 0 40 60 20  
SALINA 36 62 46 61 / 0 30 60 20  
MCPHERSON 37 62 46 62 / 0 30 60 10  
COFFEYVILLE 40 66 52 72 / 10 10 60 20  
CHANUTE 39 64 50 70 / 10 10 60 10  
IOLA 39 63 50 69 / 10 10 60 20  
PARSONS-KPPF 39 65 51 71 / 10 10 60 20  
 

 
   
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ032-033-049.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...PJH  
LONG TERM...PJH  
AVIATION...MWM  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab KS Page Main Text Page