822  
FXUS63 KICT 080530  
AFDICT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS  
1130 PM CST WED DEC 7 2016  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST WED DEC 7 2016  
 
700-650 MB MID-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE AND ASSOCIATED NARROW BANDS OF  
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES SHOULD EXIT SOUTHWARD, OUT OF FAR  
SOUTHERN KANSAS EARLY THIS EVENING. MOST AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE A  
LITTLE MORE THAN A DUSTING, DUE TO THE TRANSIENT/NARROW NATURE OF  
THESE BANDS, ALONG WITH THE ANTECEDENT DRY LOW LEVEL AIR TO  
OVERCOME. CLEARING SKIES WITH SUBSIDENCE WILL OCCUR TONIGHT FROM  
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THIS DEPARTING  
FEATURE. A STRONG POLAR HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD  
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, AND WILL LINGER  
INTO FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE  
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AND NORTH WINDS HANGING UP AROUND 10-15  
MPH, WIND CHILLS OF ZERO TO 8 BELOW ARE SLATED FOR CENTRAL AND  
MUCH OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO MID MORNING  
THURSDAY. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE LOW TEMPERATURES IN  
THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE  
REGION WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LEE  
TROUGHING AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES  
RECOVERING BACK TO SEASONAL CLIMATOLOGY SATURDAY (HIGHS LOW-MID  
40S).  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST WED DEC 7 2016  
 
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A VERY STRONG NEGATIVE HEIGHT  
ANOMALY AT 500 MB ROTATING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO  
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH A PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY  
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY  
EXISTS WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING/AMPLIFICATION OF SEVERAL, EMBEDDED  
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS PROGRESSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. ONE  
SUCH SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS  
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH THE GFS APPEARING FASTER WITH THE  
TIMING AND SHOWING LESS AMPLITUDE. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN OFFER A  
MORE AMPLIFYING, SLOWER SHORTWAVE WHICH WOULD POTENTIALLY RESULT  
IN CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS  
SUGGESTS A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. A BLENDED APPROACH WAS USED WHICH  
CARRIES SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA  
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIPITATION  
TIMING/IMPACTS IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, A BLEND OF  
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES TRENDING SLOWLY  
DOWNWARD TO BELOW NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO  
SUGGEST A MORE DIRECT POLAR AIR INTRUSION TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WITH  
SOME DEGREE OF CONTINUITY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST WED DEC 7 2016  
 
AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24  
HOURS.  
 
LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR CEILINGS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA  
SEVERAL HOURS AGO, LEAVING VFR CEILINGS AREA WIDE. SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING-IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WILL  
ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE PLAINS BY THU AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP VFR  
CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THIS ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
WICHITA-KICT 14 29 9 33 / 10 0 0 0  
HUTCHINSON 12 28 6 32 / 10 0 0 0  
NEWTON 11 26 9 31 / 10 0 0 0  
ELDORADO 13 27 9 31 / 10 0 0 0  
WINFIELD-KWLD 15 30 9 33 / 10 0 0 0  
RUSSELL 8 25 6 33 / 0 0 0 0  
GREAT BEND 8 27 7 33 / 0 0 0 0  
SALINA 9 26 6 31 / 10 0 0 0  
MCPHERSON 10 26 6 31 / 10 0 0 0  
COFFEYVILLE 16 31 11 33 / 50 0 0 0  
CHANUTE 15 29 10 31 / 20 0 0 0  
IOLA 14 27 10 30 / 20 0 0 0  
PARSONS-KPPF 16 30 9 32 / 40 0 0 0  
 

 
   
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...JMC  
LONG TERM...JMC  
AVIATION...RBL  
 
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