070  
FXUS63 KICT 260810  
AFDICT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS  
310 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016  
 
TODAY-TONIGHT:  
LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY  
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING, WITH BULK OF PRECIPITATION MOST LIKELY IN  
CENTRAL KS IN THE VICINITY OF BEST 850MB CONVERGENCE BY DAYBREAK.  
THIS PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON AROUND KSLN.  
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA IS A BIT MORE CHALLENGING.  
COMBO OF DECREASING CLOUDS/INSOLATION AND VERY MOIST GROUND COULD  
SET STAGE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THIS SEEMS PROBABLE GIVEN  
RIPPLE IN UPPER FLOW THAT WILL LIKELY TRAVERSE THE AREA EARLY THIS  
EVENING. ALL MODELS SEEM TO MORE OR LESS SUGGEST THIS, BUT  
LOCATION AND COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN. WOULD PROBABLY HEDGE TO THE  
AREA EAST OF I-35 AND IN THE VICINITY OF SURFACE BOUNDARY/DIFFERENTIAL  
HEATING IN CENTRAL KS. AT THIS POINT, PLAN TO LET FLASH FLOOD WATCH  
EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE.  
 
SATURDAY-SUNDAY:  
UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS EARLY ON SATURDAY  
WHICH COULD KEEP FRIDAY EVENING CONVECTION GOING OR REGENERATE  
CONVECTION AROUND DAYBREAK. AT FACE VALUE, MODELS SUGGEST SURFACE  
BOUNDARY WILL EITHER WASH OUT OR LIFT NORTH OF AREA BY SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON. BUT WITH MOIST AIRMASS AND POTENTIAL FOR EITHER RIPPLES  
IN ZONAL FLOW AND/OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION,  
WILL NEED TO KEEP LOW POPS GOING FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN  
TRICKY, WITH A LOT DEPENDING ON EXTENT/TIMING OF AFTERNOON  
CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. -HOWERTON  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016  
 
NORMALLY WOULD EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE MOSTLY SHUT DOWN AS UPPER  
RIDGE BUILDS AND FLOW WEAKENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER  
THAT HAS NOT BEEN THE CASE THIS YEAR, AND MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT  
AT AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES  
REMAIN TRICKY, WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTING  
NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, BUT EXTENSIVE CLOUDS/CONVECTION  
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT ERRORS ON SOME DAYS/LOCATIONS.  
-HOWERTON  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016  
 
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH  
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE PRIMARY  
THREATS WILL BE LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL RATES, ALONG WITH GUSTY  
WINDS AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL. INCLUDED VCTS AT MOST SITES, AND  
EVEN INCLUDED TEMPO +TSRA FOR A FEW HOURS AT WICHITA AND  
HUTCHINSON. OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE  
AMENDMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
WICHITA-KICT 84 68 89 70 / 30 20 20 30  
HUTCHINSON 83 67 88 69 / 40 30 20 30  
NEWTON 82 67 87 69 / 40 20 20 20  
ELDORADO 82 67 88 70 / 30 20 30 30  
WINFIELD-KWLD 85 68 90 70 / 20 20 20 30  
RUSSELL 78 63 86 67 / 40 50 20 30  
GREAT BEND 81 64 87 67 / 30 40 20 30  
SALINA 78 66 88 69 / 40 50 30 30  
MCPHERSON 82 66 87 68 / 40 30 20 30  
COFFEYVILLE 87 68 90 70 / 20 20 30 20  
CHANUTE 84 68 88 70 / 20 20 40 20  
IOLA 83 68 88 70 / 20 20 40 20  
PARSONS-KPPF 86 68 89 70 / 20 20 40 20  
 

 
   
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ051>053-  
067>072-082-083-091>095.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...PJH  
LONG TERM...PJH  
AVIATION...ADK  
 
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