185  
FXUS63 KICT 262356  
AFDICT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS  
556 PM CST SUN FEB 26 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CST SUN FEB 26 2017  
 
A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. MOISTURE  
TRANSPORT IS RATHER WEAK BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND  
LIFT TO ALLOW FORM SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH  
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. FURTHER TO THE NORTH IN CENTRAL  
KANSAS, THE MOISTURE IN THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS TUESDAY MORNING  
MAY PRODUCE SOME PATCHY FOG.  
 
THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL COME THROUGH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND  
OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS MUCH STRONGER THAN THE SHORTWAVE COMING  
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS DECENT BUT THE LOW  
AND MID LEVEL FORCING IS IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SHOWER  
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE  
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS  
THE FRONT PASSES. SINCE THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS DURING THE  
MORNING HOURS, WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING AS  
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY. MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL KANSAS ARE  
LIKELY TO GET SOME LIGHT SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. LITTLE TO  
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AS THE SYSTEM IS  
EXPECTED MOVE OUT OF THE REGION RATHER QUICK.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CST SUN FEB 26 2017  
 
THE LONG RANGE LOOKS TO BE RATHER QUIET AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM  
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND WEDNESDAY'S WEATHER SYSTEM.  
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB AND REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE  
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 556 PM CST SUN FEB 26 2017  
 
A LIGHT SOUTHEAST SURFACE WIND FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA  
TONIGHT, INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH DURING MONDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT  
TOWARD DAWN WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS DURING MONDAY  
MORNING RESULTING IN DEVELOPMENT AND NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF  
STRATUS CIGS AND PATCHY FOG. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON MVFR CATEGORY,  
THOUGH LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO INCLUDE A PERIOD OF IFR,  
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.  
 
KED  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 409 PM CST SUN FEB 26 2017  
 
WINDS WILL PICK UP SIGNIFICANTLY FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING  
THE FIRE DANGER UP INTO THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY. HOWEVER, THE  
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION WILL TEMPER THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX  
AND WILL KEEP IT BELOW THE EXTREME CATEGORY.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
WICHITA-KICT 34 59 46 69 / 10 20 10 10  
HUTCHINSON 30 58 43 64 / 10 10 0 10  
NEWTON 32 58 44 65 / 10 20 10 10  
ELDORADO 34 59 47 70 / 10 20 10 10  
WINFIELD-KWLD 36 60 47 72 / 10 20 10 10  
RUSSELL 26 58 36 57 / 0 10 0 10  
GREAT BEND 27 58 39 59 / 0 10 0 10  
SALINA 28 58 42 61 / 0 10 0 20  
MCPHERSON 30 58 42 63 / 0 10 0 20  
COFFEYVILLE 36 63 52 76 / 10 30 10 20  
CHANUTE 33 62 50 73 / 10 30 10 20  
IOLA 33 62 50 73 / 10 30 10 20  
PARSONS-KPPF 35 63 52 74 / 10 30 10 20  
 

 
   
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...ELM  
LONG TERM...ELM  
AVIATION...KED  
FIRE WEATHER...ELM  
 
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