146
FXUS63 KICT 041138
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
638 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
AVIATION
12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS THE FOCUS
FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA
BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER COUNTIES OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
VALID PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT...THOUGH RATHER CONDITIONAL AND DEPENDENT ON LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PROFILE OF POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.
KED
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 314 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES TODAY AND HOW WARM TO
GO IN THE EXTENDED.
TODAY-TONIGHT:
STORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KS. EVEN THOUGH THE COVERAGE HAS DECREASED THE AREA OF
CONVECTION IS STILL BEING MAINTAINED BY A 35-40KT LOW LEVEL JET
COMBINED WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 315K SURFACE. IN
ADDITION MUCH OF THE AREA IS UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
UPPER JET. WITH ABUNDANT CONVECTION THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
PLAINS...THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT IS HARD TO PIN DOWN. BEST GUESS IS
THAT IT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SW KS INTO NORTHEAST KS WITH OUTFLOW
SURGING SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE KS WITH DOWNGLIDE SHUTTING OFF PRECIP CHANCES
OVER CENTRAL KS. WITH LACK OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND
VEERING 850MB WINDS...FEEL THE OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS MORNING. GIVEN DECENT MODEL
CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS FEEL CONFIDENT THAT BY 18Z THE
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MUCH COOLER AIR STILL LOOKS ON TAP TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA TODAY
WHICH WILL BE AIDED BY LOWER CLOUDS STICKING AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. BY 06Z SUN THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE DOWN ALONG THE RED RIVER
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE PLAINS.
SUN-MON:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST ON SUN ALLOWING SOME RETURN
FLOW TO COMMENCE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP ANY
CONVECTION OVER EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS. TEMPS ON SUN WILL CONTINUE TO
BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MON WITH A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH SOME
MOISTURE STARTING TO WORK BACK AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
HIGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER
WESTERN KS SUN NIGHT WHICH MAY SKIRT THE WESTERN FRINGES OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INSERT
PRECIP.
TUE-FRI:
BY WED THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A MUCH
WEAKER WAVE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST CONUS DOWN INTO THE GULF
COAST. MEANWHILE AN UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST HOWEVER WOULD STILL NOT BE
SURPRISED IF AT SOME POINT SOME ISO OR SLIGHT CHANCES ARE ADDED IN
WITH THIS PATTERN STILL RESULTING IN SOME WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE. BY
THU THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN AND WILL PUSH EAST. THIS
WILL ALLOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
LAWSON
AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
NMRS TS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FROM SWRN THRU
CNTRL/NERN KS...WITH PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE 925 MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE. WILL UTILIZE TEMPO TS AT SLN/HUT AND MAY
EVENTUALLY NEED ONE AT ICT IN THE EARLY AM HRS. OTHERWISE FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY WITH NW-NRLY
WINDS BEHIND IT. SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO IMPACT CNTRL KS
EARLY SAT AM BEHIND FRONT. CAP WILL ONCE AGAIN WEAKEN BY LATE PM
WITH SCT TS DEVELOPING IN FAR SERN KS ALONG THE SWD MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEFORE ACTIVITY PUSHES INTO NRN OK EARLY SAT EVE.
JMC
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
WICHITA-KICT 87 64 86 66 / 40 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 86 63 86 65 / 20 10 10 10
NEWTON 86 63 85 65 / 30 10 10 10
ELDORADO 86 63 85 63 / 40 10 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 89 66 85 66 / 50 20 10 10
RUSSELL 83 61 85 64 / 10 10 10 20
GREAT BEND 84 62 86 65 / 10 10 10 20
SALINA 85 63 86 65 / 10 10 10 10
MCPHERSON 85 63 86 65 / 10 10 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 88 65 85 65 / 50 20 10 10
CHANUTE 86 64 83 63 / 50 10 10 10
IOLA 85 64 83 63 / 40 10 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 87 64 83 64 / 50 20 10 10
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page