456
FXUS63 KICT 091129
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
529 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2010
AVIATION
12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST KANSAS TODAY...AS THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MISSOURI WRAPS SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS ACROSS FAR EASTERN KANSAS. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS BEFORE DIMINISHING BY SUNSET THIS EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH SOME LATE NIGHT RADIATIONAL FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS. IF IT DEVELOPS A PERIOD OF IFR VSBYS CAN BE
EXPECTED...HOWEVER SINCE CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODEST AT BEST
WILL ONLY SHOW A TEMPO MVFR GROUP FOR TOWARD END OF PERIOD.
KED
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 242 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2010/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE FREEZING FOG CHANCES TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...CHILLY TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH
READINGS GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL TOWARD LATE WEEK/EARLY
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER COLD SNAP COULD ARRIVE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
AND BEYOND.
AMPLIFIED LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY TODAY...EAST OF
THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TODAY WITH A
BIT OF LOW-LEVEL CAPE...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS
AND SCATTERED AREAS OF FLURRIES. HOWEVER...THIS LOW-LEVEL CAPE IS
DUE MAINLY TO THE MODEL-PROGGED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WHICH IS LIKELY
PROGGED TO BE MUCH HIGHER THAN REALITY. LOWERING THESE DEWPOINTS
CLOSER TO REALITY CHANGES THE PICTURE COMPLETELY...RESULTING IN ONLY
SMALL CHANCES FOR FLURRIES MAINLY OVER EASTERN KANSAS.
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SLACKEN FROM THE WEST. THE LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES COULD RESULT IN PATCHY FREEZING FOG MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...MOST LIKELY OVER SNOW COVERED REGIONS WHERE
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE MAXIMIZED...BUT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ALL
AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF I-135 WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST. THINKING
THERE COULD BE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER SNOW COVERED
AREAS.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD RETURN ON WEDNESDAY...AND LAST THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS LIGHT AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW COMMENCES ACROSS
THE PLAINS. CONSEQUENTLY...MAY SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING
DRIZZLE GENERALLY WEST OF I-135 WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW AS THE SIGNAL DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT STRONG.
WITH WESTERN CONUS MID/UPPER RIDGING INCREASING AND INCHING
EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE 30S/40S BY
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
BEGINNING TO INCREASE THAT ANOTHER COLD SNAP MAY ARRIVE BY SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY...AS NOW BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING ANOTHER POLAR
VORTEX AND ASSOCIATED MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS SOUTH ACROSS THE
PLAINS/EASTERN CONUS. HOWEVER...DUE TO INTEROFFICE
COORDINATION...WILL ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO MAKE ANY PERTINENT CHANGES TO
THIS PERIOD.
ADK
AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING...LEADING TO VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO ALL THE TAF SITES. WILL SEE THE VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE UNTIL TUE AFTERNOON WHEN WE COULD SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF MVFR CEILINGS MOVE INTO THE AREA AS CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES
OVER MOST OF ERN KS. THIS CYCLONIC CURVATURE WILL LEAD TO AN MVFR
STRATO-CU DECK RETURNING TO MOST OF THE TAF SITES FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON TUE. LAPSE RATES ALSO LOOK STEEP ENOUGH NEAR KCNU FOR A
POSSIBLE FLURRY CHANCE JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF KCNU. WILL NOT
INCLUDE THIS JUST YET IN THE KCNU TAF...BUT MAY NEED TO ADDED WITH
LATER FORECASTS.
MOST OF THE MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET ON TUE EVE.
KETCHAM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
WICHITA-KICT 27 9 31 22 / 0 0 10 10
HUTCHINSON 26 7 30 21 / 0 0 10 10
NEWTON 27 8 30 21 / 10 0 0 10
ELDORADO 27 9 31 20 / 10 0 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 29 11 32 21 / 0 0 10 10
RUSSELL 24 6 28 19 / 0 0 10 10
GREAT BEND 24 6 29 20 / 0 0 10 10
SALINA 26 7 29 20 / 10 0 0 10
MCPHERSON 26 7 29 20 / 0 0 0 10
COFFEYVILLE 30 13 33 20 / 10 0 10 10
CHANUTE 28 12 31 17 / 10 0 10 10
IOLA 28 12 31 17 / 10 0 0 10
PARSONS-KPPF 29 12 32 18 / 10 0 10 10
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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