127  
FXUS63 KICT 250510  
AFDICT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS  
1210 AM CDT SAT MAR 25 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT FRI MAR 24 2017  
 
LATEST TRENDS IN THE RAP/HRRR CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE FORECAST  
THESIS OF LOW-TOPPED, STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION POTENTIAL LATE  
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST  
KANSAS. THE NAM/RAP MAY ALSO HAVE THE RIGHT IDEA IN BACKING THE  
SURFACE FLOW AND ADVECTING HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS A BIT FURTHER  
WEST ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BETWEEN 21-00Z. THIS  
SUPPORTS SBCAPE VALUES OF 1200-1500 J/KG WITH LOW LEVEL (0-3KM)  
CAPE VALUES OVER 225 J/KG. SO ALL FACETS OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL  
REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE POTENTIAL COLD-CORE SETUP AS THE NEAR  
NORTHEAST QUAD OF THE UPPER LOW AFFECTS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY  
THIS EVENING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED  
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITHIN THE BACK EDGE OF THE  
DEFORMATION ZONE AND WRAP-AROUND PRECIP TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST  
OF THE EASTWARD MIGRATING UPPER LOW. ITS RATHER SLOW NORTHEAST  
DEPARTURE ACROSS MISSOURI THROUGH SATURDAY SUPPORTS HOLDING ON TO  
LOW TO MODEST POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE  
DAY. AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY, THE  
NEXT UPPER TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY  
MONDAY. THE MODEST MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE SUFFICIENT GIVEN THE  
PROGGED TRANSIENT LIFT ACROSS THE AREA FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A  
FEW STORMS OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS. AFTER SOME MORNING PRECIP  
CHANCES MONDAY, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
DARMOFAL  
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT FRI MAR 24 2017  
 
ANOTHER UPPER TROF WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS CALIFORNIA  
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS.  
THIS SYSTEM STILL LOOKS TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND  
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MID-WEEK, PROVIDING THE AREA WITH MORE PRECIP  
CHANCES.  
 
KED  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT SAT MAR 25 2017  
 
COMBO OF IFR-MVFR CEILINGS WITH PATCHY SHRA WILL BE THE RULE FOR  
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. MVFR SHOULD BE THE RULE THRU THE MORNING  
AND MOST OF THE AFTERNOON, WITH SOME CLEARING WORKING INTO  
KRSL/KGBD/KHUT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND KICT AROUND SUNSET.  
APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT KSLN/KCNU WOULD CLEAR DURING THIS FORECAST  
PERIOD. -HOWERTON  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT FRI MAR 24 2017  
 
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE  
AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE ENDING EARLY ON  
SATURDAY. GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A COLD  
FRONT WILL KEEP GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER VERY HIGH IN RAIN-FREE  
AREAS. FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO BE ONLY MODERATE TO HIGH THE  
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AGAIN LATE  
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THESE RAINS SHOULD PROVIDE DECENT  
GREEN-UP ACROSS THE AREA AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.  
 
KED  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
WICHITA-KICT 44 59 42 72 / 30 20 0 30  
HUTCHINSON 43 58 40 70 / 50 10 0 30  
NEWTON 42 56 41 69 / 40 20 0 30  
ELDORADO 43 57 42 71 / 60 30 0 30  
WINFIELD-KWLD 43 61 42 74 / 30 20 0 30  
RUSSELL 40 58 38 66 / 20 10 0 30  
GREAT BEND 42 60 38 66 / 20 0 0 30  
SALINA 42 56 40 67 / 50 20 0 20  
MCPHERSON 42 56 39 69 / 50 20 0 30  
COFFEYVILLE 49 60 44 74 / 60 50 0 30  
CHANUTE 46 58 43 72 / 70 60 10 20  
IOLA 47 57 43 71 / 70 60 10 20  
PARSONS-KPPF 48 59 44 73 / 60 60 10 20  
 

 
   
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...KED  
LONG TERM...KED  
AVIATION...PJH  
FIRE WEATHER...KED  
 
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