366
FXUS63 KICT 210036
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
636 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
AVIATION
00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
GIVEN RATHER POOR MODEL PERFORMANCE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...NOT
OPTIMISTIC ABOUT ACCURACY OF DETAILS WITH THIS FORECAST. 1800 UTC
NORTH AMERICAN MODEL APPEARS TO BE OFF TO A BETTER START...ALTHOUGH
A BIT LACKING IN BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS NE OK WHERE SOME IFR CEILINGS/DRIZZLE
ARE OCCURRING. AT FACE VALUE IT WOULD SUGGEST LOWEST CONDITIONS
ALONG WESTERN THIRD OF FORECAST AREA TOMORROW MORNING. LOW IFR WOULD
BE LIKELY IF NORTH AMERICAN MODEL IS CORRECT AT KRSL/KHUT/KICT BUT
WOULD NOT DEVELOP UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. CONDITIONS ARE NOT LIKELY
TO IMPROVE UNTIL AT LEAST 1800 UTC WHEN INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS
SHOULD ALLOW MORE MIXING. -HOWERTON
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 312 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE DENSE FOG LIKELIHOOD TONIGHT AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
SYNOPSIS:
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS TEXAS...AND STRATUS
AND FOG ARE PERSISTING OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA. OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS...THE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE CONTINUING TO BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR TO THE REGION AND CLOUDS ARE DISSIPATING SOON AFTER MOVING NORTH
OF THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON:
WITH CURRENT TRENDS IN BOTH RADAR AND VIS SATELLITE...REMOVED PRECIP
CHANCES FOR SE KANSAS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. WITH MOISTURE
TRANSPORT STRONGER OVER EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR EXPECT THE MAIN BULK
OF PRECIP TO STAY DOWN THERE. WITH NORTHERLY COMPONENT IN THE
WINDS...CLOUDS HAVE REMAIN NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER. WITH SUBSIDENCE
MOVING ACROSS KS...EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN MOSTLY OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TWEAKED TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
DUNTEN
TONIGHT-SUNDAY:
SURFACE WINDS ARE GOING TO BECOME EASTERLY AND THEN SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SATURATE QUICKLY AROUND 9Z...AND ARE
SATURATED FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 750MB. FROM 9Z TO ABOUT
15Z...SOUNDINGS SHOW A STEEP INVERSION RIGHT NEAR THE SURFACE. AN
ADVECTION TYPE FOG SCENARIO IS LIKELY WITH THESE CONDITIONS. THE
QUESTION IS HOW WIDESPREAD WILL DENSE FOG BE ACROSS THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...SO
WE WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA AT THIS POINT AND
THEN LET LATER SHIFTS EXPAND IF NECESSARY.
THE DENSE FOG SHOULD TRANSITION TO NON-DENSE FOG ACROSS THE ADVISORY
AREA AROUND MID-MORNING...AND SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
WILL KEEP THAT MENTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.
SCHRECK
MONDAY-TUESDAY:
AM FOLLOWING THE EUROPEAN MODEL ON THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE FRONT. BIG QUESTION WILL REMAIN THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH. MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. MONDAY NIGHT
COULD SEE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF IOWA
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BEING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD RESULT
THIS BEING OUR COOLEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 40S...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL KANSAS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
WEATHER LOOKS GOOD FOR HOLIDAY TRAVELERS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.
RHE
AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MAIN FOCUS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RETURN MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND STREAM NORTH INTO THE AREA. INITIALLY THIS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS INTO KICT AND KHUT IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THIS MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM NORTH INTO
CENTRAL KS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON SAT. CERTAINLY HAVE SOME
CONCERNS IN MOST LOCATIONS ABOUT FOG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLY
IFR FOG MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z/SAT. COULD ALSO SEE SOME IFR
CEILINGS MOVE INTO THE AREA AS WELL...AS MOISTURE BUILDS DOWN TO THE
SURFACE WITH A POSSIBLE STRATUS BUILD DOWN SITUATION DEVELOPING.
WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO WATCH THE KICT/KHUT AND KCNU TAF SITES FOR
THE 10-14Z/SAT TIME FRAME AS VISIBILITIES COULD BECOME LIFR. WILL
LET LATER TAF ISSUANCES LOOK AT THIS CHANCE.
KETCHAM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
WICHITA-KICT 41 59 43 56 / 0 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 39 57 41 55 / 0 10 10 10
NEWTON 42 57 42 54 / 0 10 10 10
ELDORADO 40 58 41 56 / 0 10 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 45 62 43 57 / 10 10 10 10
RUSSELL 32 58 38 54 / 0 10 10 10
GREAT BEND 33 57 37 53 / 0 10 10 10
SALINA 37 56 42 56 / 0 10 10 20
MCPHERSON 39 57 42 56 / 0 10 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 47 59 43 62 / 10 20 10 10
CHANUTE 44 57 44 62 / 10 20 10 10
IOLA 43 56 43 60 / 10 20 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 45 58 43 62 / 10 20 10 10
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR KSZ067>072-
082-083-091>096-098>100.
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