645  
FXUS63 KICT 262340  
AFDICT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS  
640 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016  
 
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WITH POTENTIAL MCS TRACKS THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS  
REMAINS THE MAIN CHALLENGE. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNALLY  
DRIVEN CONVECTION DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER  
PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY  
TO WANE TOWARD SUNSET WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE STRONG STORMS WITH  
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL  
BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. SOME  
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN LOW-LYING AREAS OF THE FLINT HILLS AND  
CENTRAL KANSAS. MESOSCALE OUTFLOW OF THE EXPECTED STORM CLUSTERS OR  
MCS EVOLVING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY MODULATE  
THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND  
PERHAPS CLOSE TO THE KANSAS BORDER DURING WEDNESDAY. A SHORTWAVE  
NOW MOVING OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CONUS SHOULD VENTURE ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS DURING PEAK HEATING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.  
THESE FEATURES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO FOCUS AND FORCE CONVECTION  
ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A MODEST  
INCREASE IN WINDS ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN PROXIMITY TO THE  
DEVELOPING STORM CLUSTER WHICH SHOULD INCREASE THE CLOUD-BEARING  
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND AID IN STORM MAINTENANCE WITH A SOUTHEASTWARD  
MOVEMENT/PROPAGATION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN  
KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CHALLENGE THEN BECOMES HOW FAR SOUTH  
THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AND RESULTANT MESOSCALE OUTFLOW COMES AND  
MODULATES THE AIRMASS FOR THURSDAY AND THE POSITION OF THE  
EFFECTIVE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER ANY LINGERING  
CONVECTION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THERE COULD BE A RELATIVE LULL  
INTO THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT TO MODEST CHANCE  
POPS. HOWEVER, UPSLOPE FLOW FOCUSED NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS  
WESTERN KANSAS AND ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ALOFT LATE  
THURSDAY SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OR MCS OVER  
THE HIGH PLAINS WHICH WOULD TEND TO MOVE/PROPAGATE ACROSS WESTERN  
INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY SHOULD BE  
THE COOLEST DAY OF THE NEXT FEW IN THE WAKE OF THURSDAY NIGHTS  
SYSTEM AND PERHAPS DRIER THAN INDICATED, THOUGH WILL MAINTAIN A  
MODEST POP THROUGH THE DAY AS THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE  
EXPECTED CONVECTION THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WHERE THE EFFECTIVE  
BOUNDARY WILL ACTUALLY BE SITUATED BY FRIDAY.  
 
DARMOFAL  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016  
 
UPPER RIDGE STILL ON TRACK TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS  
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SO THE TREND TOWARD HOT AND DRY STILL LOOKS  
REASONABLE.  
 
KED  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016  
 
THE IMMEDIATE ATTENTION IS THAT OF NUMEROUS TSRA OCRG ACRS EXTREME  
SE KS. CELLS HAVE BEEN BUILDING N TWD KCNU & AS SUCH HAVE ASSIGNED  
"TEMPO 3SM TSRA" TO KCNU UNTIL 03Z, BUT CIGS SHUD RMN AOA 3,500 FT.  
WL ONCE AGN HAVE TO WATCH FOR BR DVLPMT LATE TNGT (~09Z). ISSUE WL  
BE ADDRESSED IN GREATER DEPTH WITH THE 27/06Z EDITION.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
WICHITA-KICT 72 92 72 91 / 10 10 40 30  
HUTCHINSON 70 91 71 90 / 10 10 50 30  
NEWTON 70 90 71 89 / 10 10 50 30  
ELDORADO 71 91 71 89 / 10 10 40 40  
WINFIELD-KWLD 72 91 72 92 / 20 20 30 30  
RUSSELL 69 92 69 89 / 10 20 50 20  
GREAT BEND 69 92 70 89 / 10 10 40 20  
SALINA 70 93 70 90 / 10 20 60 20  
MCPHERSON 71 91 71 89 / 10 10 50 30  
COFFEYVILLE 72 91 72 91 / 20 20 30 40  
CHANUTE 72 90 71 89 / 20 20 30 40  
IOLA 71 90 71 89 / 20 20 40 40  
PARSONS-KPPF 72 91 72 90 / 20 20 30 40  
 

 
   
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...KED  
LONG TERM...KED  
AVIATION...EPS  
 
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