234  
FXUS63 KICT 282003  
AFDICT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS  
303 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016  
 
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS AROUND A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN  
THUNDERSTORM-WISE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS/NIGHTS, WITH SEVERAL BOUTS  
OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS  
THE REGION.  
 
THE FORECAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY  
MESOSCALE, CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED FEATURES, WHICH ARE EXTREMELY  
DIFFICULT IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT MORE THAN 12-24 HOURS IN  
ADVANCE. CONSEQUENTLY, FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING SPECIFIC  
DETAILS IS LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOCUSED MAINLY ON  
TRENDS AND IN MANY CASES MADE LITTLE CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS  
FORECASTER.  
 
CURRENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND  
SOUTH-CENTRAL KS IS BEING DRIVEN BY A SOUTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOW  
BOUNDARY AMIDST AN INCREASING UNSTABLE AIRMASS. EVEN THOUGH DEEP  
LAYER SHEAR IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE, STRONG CLOCKWISE DIRECTIONAL  
TURNING WITH HEIGHT WILL FAVOR A HANDFUL OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS  
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY/MID EVENING OVER MAINLY SOUTH-CENTRAL  
KS. THINKING ACTIVITY WILL EXIT SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA BY 7PM. BUBBLE  
HIGH IN WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO STABILIZE THE  
ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE EVENING AND THUS SUPPRESS WIDESPREAD  
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AFTER 7PM. HOWEVER, EXPECTING A THUNDERSTORM  
COMPLEX OR TWO TO CONGEAL OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN NE THIS  
EVENING, PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST ALONG 850-700MB THERMAL/MOISTURE  
GRADIENT INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KS LATER TONIGHT TOWARD WED MORNING.  
LIKE LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING, WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS  
NOT EXPECTED BY THE TIME THIS ACTIVITY REACHES THE FORECAST AREA,  
ALTHOUGH A HANDFUL OF WIND GUST REPORTS OVER 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE,  
ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.  
 
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT FORECAST IS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON  
MAGNITUDE AND TRACK OF TONIGHT'S ACTIVITY. IF THE NAM AND  
ASSOCIATED HI-RES MODELS VERIFY, A MASSIVE CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED  
OUTFLOW AND ASSOCIATED BUBBLE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA,  
LEAVING A STABILIZED, COOLER AND MOSTLY THUNDERSTORM-FREE  
ATMOSPHERE IN ITS WAKE. IN CONTRAST, THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP  
OVERNIGHT COMPLEX FURTHER NORTH AND NOT AS ROBUST, ALLOWING FOR A  
WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE WED AIRMASS AS THE REMNANT OUTFLOW DRAPES  
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS LATTER SCENARIO, POTENTIAL  
FOR STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER DEEP  
LAYER SHEAR SHOULD PROMOTE STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH ANYTHING THAT  
CAN DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE REMNANT OUTFLOW, ALONG WITH  
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.  
 
WONDERING IF THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM  
ACTIVITY WILL BE THU AFTERNOON-NIGHT, AS APPROACHING CANADIAN HIGH  
PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH ENHANCES OUTFLOW/FRONTAL CONVERGENCE  
SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN KS/NORTHERN OK. ONCE AGAIN  
THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENTS WILL FAVOR STRONG TO  
SEVERE STORMS WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT AFFECTS THE AREA, ALONG WITH  
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. WITH THE BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK NORTH, EXPECT  
CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT.  
 
TEMPERATURE-WISE, THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND  
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS IN CHECK THE NEXT  
SEVERAL DAYS, LIKELY NO HIGHER THAN AROUND 90 DEGREES.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016  
 
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SATURDAY-SUNDAY WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT  
ON HOW FAR NORTH THE FRONTAL ZONE RETREATS. GFS RETREATS THE  
BOUNDARY FURTHEST NORTH, LIKELY KEEPING GREATEST CHANCES NORTH OF  
THE FORECAST AREA SAT-SUN, WITH HOT AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER SOUTH  
OF THE BOUNDARY. IN CONTRAST, THE ECMWF HOLDS THE FRONTAL ZONE  
FURTHER SOUTH, WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR GREATER CHANCES FOR  
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALONG  
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. STRONG-SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY  
RAIN WOULD BE A CONTINUED THREAT IF THE ECMWF SCENARIO VERIFIES.  
 
EXPECT A GRADUAL DRYING AND WARMING TREND BY EARLY TO MID NEXT  
WEEK, AS SOME SEMBLANCE OF UPPER RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN FROM  
THE WEST.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016  
 
VERY CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST. MODELS DID NOT INITIALIZE  
850MB MOISTURE VERY WELL THIS MORNING AND HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLING  
CONVECTIVE TRENDS EITHER. 850MB ANALYSIS SHOWED IMPRESSIVE  
MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY FROM ROUGHLY KCNK TO KTUL. CURRENT  
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IN THE VICINITY OF KRSL IS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED  
AND LIKELY MOVING ALONG THIS GRADIENT. WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING  
TO THE SOUTH, SUSPECT THESE WILL HOLD TOGETHER IN THE SHORT TERM,  
BUT WITH FORCING RATHER WEAK, EVOLUTION WILL BE AT MERCY OF COLD  
POOL AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE. HAVE INCLUDING VCTS AT KHUT AND WILL  
AMEND KICT FOR STORMS WHEN TIMING IS A BIT MORE CERTAIN. EXPECTING  
PRECIPITATION TO WANE BEHIND THIS CLUSTER DURING THE EVENING.  
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL LIKELY SWEEP  
ACROSS THE AREA VERY LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. HAVE  
INCLUDED VCTS FOR THAT. -HOWERTON  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
WICHITA-KICT 69 87 68 89 / 30 40 40 40  
HUTCHINSON 68 86 67 89 / 40 40 40 40  
NEWTON 68 85 66 87 / 40 40 40 40  
ELDORADO 68 86 67 87 / 30 40 40 40  
WINFIELD-KWLD 69 89 69 90 / 20 30 30 40  
RUSSELL 66 85 65 86 / 50 50 50 30  
GREAT BEND 66 86 65 87 / 50 50 40 30  
SALINA 68 86 66 88 / 50 50 50 40  
MCPHERSON 67 86 66 88 / 40 50 40 40  
COFFEYVILLE 68 89 69 89 / 20 30 30 40  
CHANUTE 68 87 67 86 / 30 30 40 40  
IOLA 67 86 66 86 / 30 40 50 40  
PARSONS-KPPF 68 88 68 88 / 20 30 40 40  
 

 
   
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...ADK  
LONG TERM...ADK  
AVIATION...PJH  
 
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