768
FXUS63 KICT 071733
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1133 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
AVIATION
18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
PRESSURE FALLS TO LEE OF CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL ALLOW WEAK FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS CNTRL/SWRN KS...TO LIFT NWD TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT.
A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL THEN RESUME AREAWIDE TONIGHT-SUNDAY.
IFR/MVFR CIGS TO OUR SOUTH IN ERN TX/SERN OK SHOWING SIGNS OF
DISSIPATING AS OF MIDDAY. THE RELATIVELY HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THAT
REGION WILL BE ATTEMPTING TO ADVECT NWD INTO ERN KS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THAT SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY LEAD
TO TRANSIENT SCT-BKN IFR CLOUD DECKS IN OUR AREA EARLY SUN
AM...BEFORE DISSIPATING BY LATE AM.
JMC
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 551 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS NEAR THE WEAK FRONT. THE FRONT IS THROUGH
KRSL AND WILL LIKELY STALL IN THE VICINITY OF KSLN/KHUT.
ELSEWHERE...SOUTH WINDS SHOULD PERSIST AND BECOME GUSTY LATER THIS
MORNING. WITH FRONT PUSHING BACK NORTH LATER TODAY...GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP AT KRSL/KSLN/KHUT. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND WINDS OFF DECK WILL LIKELY KEEP WINDS FAIRLY MIXED AND
PREDOMINATELY GUSTY...ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHTER WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. -HOWERTON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...
A RELATIVELY QUIET AND MILD WEATHER PATTERN ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ALTHOUGH SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS
MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING.
WEAK WIND SHIFT WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL KS TODAY...WHICH SHOULD
PRECLUDE MAXIMUM HEATING OVER CENTRAL KS DUE TO LIMITED
MIXING...ALTHOUGH STILL ANTICIPATING HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S...WITH
MID-UPPER 70S OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS DUE TO BETTER MIXING.
THESE READINGS WILL BE 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT JUST SHORT
OF RECORD HIGHS (RECORDS FOR TODAY ARE IN THE LOW 80S).
WITH CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
MONDAY DISTURBANCE...SHOULD SEE SOME SCATTERED-BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. THINKING THEY SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID-LATE
MORNING...SO NOT ANTICIPATING THE CLOUDS TO AFFECT SUNDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH INCREASED MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY PRECLUDE
MAXIMUM HEATING...BUT STILL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 70S.
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS ON
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING...AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
CONUS...SURGING A PACIFIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY. CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
PROGRESS WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY-MONDAY
EVENING...ALONG/BEHIND A COLD FRONT...AND AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORMS
OR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN BY ANY MEANS DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND
LIMITED INSTABILITY...BUT DECENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT. ENDED UP INCREASING
POPS INTO THE 30-40% REALM. TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO MORE NORMAL
READINGS FOR MONDAY-TUESDAY IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...AS A PACIFIC
AIRMASS SETTLES EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE HEARTLAND.
DESPITE SOME RELATIVELY MINOR DIFFERENCES...THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC
MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEPICTED BY THE GFS...ECMWF...UKMET AND GFS
ENSEMBLES SUPPORTS WARMING AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM MID-LATE NEXT
WEEK...AS THE MENTIONED MODELS DEVELOP WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY. SO...ONCE THE MONDAY SYSTEM
PASSES...BREEZY...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER (ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES)
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN RETURN.
ADK
FIRE WEATHER... GIVEN OBSERVED AND CLIMATOLOGICALLY INFERRED
GRASSLAND CURING VALUES...DECIDED YESTERDAY TO INCREASE CURING
VALUES BY 5-10% ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...INCREASING CURING VALUES
INTO THE 80-95% RANGE. THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER INDEX FROM HERE ON OUT...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY DUE TO ANTICIPATED STOUT SOUTHERLY FLOW. ANTICIPATE
WITHIN THE NEXT 15-30 DAYS CURING VALUES WILL BE INCREASED TO 100%
ALL AREAS...AS WINTER SETS IN.
ADK
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
WICHITA-KICT 76 54 74 54 / 0 0 0 10
HUTCHINSON 75 53 73 52 / 0 0 0 10
NEWTON 75 54 74 54 / 0 0 0 10
ELDORADO 76 54 74 54 / 0 0 0 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 77 55 75 54 / 0 0 0 10
RUSSELL 73 48 72 44 / 0 0 0 10
GREAT BEND 74 50 72 46 / 0 0 0 10
SALINA 73 52 72 50 / 0 0 0 10
MCPHERSON 74 53 73 52 / 0 0 0 10
COFFEYVILLE 77 55 76 55 / 0 0 0 10
CHANUTE 76 54 76 55 / 0 0 0 10
IOLA 76 54 75 55 / 0 0 0 10
PARSONS-KPPF 77 55 76 55 / 0 0 0 10
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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