634  
FXUS63 KICT 281727  
AFDICT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS  
1227 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016  
 
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH AND  
ACTUALLY RETROGRADE SOME BACK INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY  
THROUGH THU. THIS UPPER LOW WILL HELP PUSH A SHOT OF CANADIAN AIR  
SOUTH WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION LATER  
THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL LEAD TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION ACROSS  
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY, PUSHING TEMPS BACK A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL  
AND MORE SO ON THU AS THE COLDER AIR SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION. LACK  
OF ANY MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE, THAT WILL BE SITUATED TO  
THE WEST OF THE UPPER LOW, WILL LEAD TO MAINLY A WIND SHIFT TO THE  
NORTH-NORTHEAST AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH.  
 
COULD SEE TEMPS EVEN A LITTLE COOLER ON THU, WITH TEMPS STRUGGLE TO  
MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  
 
FRI-SAT: THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FOR  
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER  
LOW, EXPECT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE (TO THE WEST OF THE LOW) TO  
LINGER OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT LEAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING  
OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO SEASONAL TEMPS AND MOSTLY CLEAR  
SKIES CONTINUING FOR FRI-SAT.  
 
KETCHAM  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016  
 
FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND, AS A  
KICKER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WRN US. THIS WILL HELP FLATTEN  
OUT THE RIDGE WHICH WILL LEAD TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY  
RETURNING ACROSS WRN KS FOR LATE SAT INTO SUN. THIS COULD LEAD TO  
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING BACK INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF  
THE FORECAST AREA POSSIBLY BY LATE SAT NIGHT AND MORE LIKELY SUN  
NIGHT.  
 
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER SOME ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS  
SHORTWAVE AS IT CROSSES THE ROCKIES ON MON. LATEST ECMWF IS COMING  
OUT A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM, AND EVEN TAKES ON A NEGATIVE  
TILT AS IT COMES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE ECMWF AND TO LESSOR EXTENT  
THE GFS SUGGESTS A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN FOR MON-TUE, AND POSSIBLY  
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FOR MON NIGHT OR TUE NIGHT.  
 
KETCHAM  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016  
 
A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER  
MIDWEST/CORN BELT THROUGH TONIGHT INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY.  
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-23 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS  
AFTERNOON, BEFORE WINDS DECOUPLE TOWARD EARLY THIS EVENING.  
NORTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY ADVECT HIGHER RELATIVE  
HUMIDITY AIR INTO EASTERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY  
MORNING, POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO PERHAPS BROKEN MVFR  
DECKS. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR MORE THAN SCATTERED 1500 FT AGL  
DECKS AT THIS JUNCTURE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
WICHITA-KICT 75 48 69 48 / 0 0 0 0  
HUTCHINSON 74 46 69 46 / 0 0 0 0  
NEWTON 73 46 68 47 / 0 0 0 0  
ELDORADO 74 46 68 47 / 0 0 0 0  
WINFIELD-KWLD 77 48 69 48 / 0 0 0 0  
RUSSELL 74 45 68 46 / 0 0 0 0  
GREAT BEND 75 44 69 46 / 0 0 0 0  
SALINA 73 46 69 46 / 0 0 0 0  
MCPHERSON 73 46 69 45 / 0 0 0 0  
COFFEYVILLE 76 48 71 48 / 0 0 0 0  
CHANUTE 73 47 70 49 / 0 0 0 0  
IOLA 71 47 69 49 / 0 0 0 0  
PARSONS-KPPF 74 48 70 49 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...BDK  
LONG TERM...BDK  
AVIATION...JMC  
 
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