558  
FXUS63 KICT 270718  
AFDICT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS  
218 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 212 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016  
 
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO REMAIN PARKED OVER THE ROCKIES WITH  
DIFFLUENT H5 FLOW DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. MOIST  
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN TODAY WHILE THE  
SURFACE LOW REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. A MORE DIFFUSE  
DRYLINE IS PROGGED TO MIX SLOWLY EASTWARD BY LATE AFTERNOON  
PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN. THE MOIST SECTOR MAY  
BE CONTAMINATED BY ONGOING CONVECTION AND NOT NEARLY AS UNSTABLE AS  
THE PREVIOUS DAY WITH THE STEEPEST MID-LVL LAPSE RATES REMAINING  
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS. CINH IS ALSO PROGGED TO DIMINISH  
EARLY IN THE PERIOD RESULTING IN LINGERING/EARLY ONSET OF NEW  
CONVECTION BY AROUND 18Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. H5 FLOW IS PROGGED  
TO BACK AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND WHEN THE PV ANOMALY  
ROTATES TOWARD THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD...SUPPORTING A MORE RAPID  
TRANSITION TO LINEAR MODE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS  
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS. THE BETTER H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVERNIGHT  
IS PROGGED TO SHIFT RAPIDLY EASTWARD FOCUSING ON FAR SOUTHEAST KS  
INTO MO WHILE INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE  
OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO SATURDAY. SINCE MUCH OF THE AREA HAS  
SATURATED SOILS WITH ONGOING FLOODING CONCERNS THE FLASH FLOOD  
WATCH WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL & SOUTH  
CENTRAL KS. MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY ON SATURDAY  
AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST TOWARD THE  
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA. UNDER A MIX OF SUN AND  
CLOUDS...HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH  
READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.  
 
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY ALLOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO  
SURGE BACK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BUOYANT  
AIRMASS AND WE MAY SEE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE ACROSS  
THE HIGH PLAINS AND DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  
MAINTAINED LOW POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST  
CONFIDENCE ACROSS CENTRAL KS.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 212 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016  
 
MAINTAINED LOW POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER  
SLOW MOVING MID/UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD  
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES.  
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH WHICH  
WOULD RESULT IN A FASTER FROPA AND A DRIER SCENARIO WHEN COMPARED  
TO THE GFS. SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH  
THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016  
 
MAIN AVIATION HAZARDS: STRATUS POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT/EARLY  
FRIDAY, AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.  
 
QUASI-LINEAR THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST KS  
THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL KS...MOVING EASTWARD AT 30-35 MPH AS OF  
0425Z. THIS LINE SHOULD REACH THE CNU TERMINAL BETWEEN 0700Z-  
0830Z GIVEN PRESENT MOVEMENT. WILL CARRY TEMPO +TSRA WITH STRONG  
WIND GUSTS AT CNU FOR THIS LINE. POST-QLCS LIGHTNING STRIKES AND  
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR ABOUT AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND  
THIS LINE, AFFECTING THE ICT AND SLN TERMINALS.  
 
OTHERWISE, A VERY MOIST EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW  
AIDED BY RECENT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL, SHOULD LEAD TO LOW  
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. THE  
STRATUS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER OUT AROUND MIDDAY. MORE  
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATER FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON/EVENING, AS AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTS SLOWLY OUT OVER KANSAS  
FROM THE WEST.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
WICHITA-KICT 80 58 82 61 / 60 50 10 10  
HUTCHINSON 80 56 81 59 / 60 50 10 10  
NEWTON 78 57 80 59 / 60 50 10 10  
ELDORADO 77 59 81 61 / 60 60 10 10  
WINFIELD-KWLD 80 60 83 63 / 60 50 10 10  
RUSSELL 79 55 79 56 / 60 50 10 10  
GREAT BEND 80 56 79 58 / 60 50 10 10  
SALINA 79 56 80 58 / 50 50 20 10  
MCPHERSON 79 55 80 58 / 60 50 10 10  
COFFEYVILLE 77 64 82 63 / 60 60 20 10  
CHANUTE 76 63 81 62 / 60 60 30 10  
IOLA 76 62 81 62 / 60 60 30 10  
PARSONS-KPPF 77 63 82 63 / 60 60 20 10  
 

 
   
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KSZ032-033-  
047>053-067>069-082-083.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...MWM  
LONG TERM...MWM  
AVIATION...JMC  
 
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