044  
FXUS63 KICT 251948  
AFDICT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS  
248 PM CDT WED APR 25 2018  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED APR 25 2018  
 
THE UPPER LOW IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS ERN KS AT THIS TIME,  
WITH LOTS OF LIGHT SHOWERS ROTATING AROUND THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM.  
SYSTEM WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TO THE E-SE LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH  
PRECIP ENDING FROM NW TO SE.  
 
EXPECT MOST OF THE LIGHT RAIN FROM THE DEPARTING SYSTEM TO EXIT MOST  
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING. CLEARING AND SUBSIDENCE ON THE  
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WITH  
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A NICE RADIATIONAL  
COOLING FOR MOST AREAS, WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S  
FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY  
50. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS SOUTHERN KS GIVEN THE RECENT  
RAINFALL AND TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S, WITH SURFACE  
DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE LOWER 40S. WILL ALSO ADD SOME PATCHY/AREAS  
OF FROST FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS, GIVEN THAT THE GROWING SEASON  
HAS BEGUN WITH THE RAPID GREENUP FROM THE RECENT RAINS AND TEMPS  
FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. PLAN ON ISSUING A FROST ADVISORY FOR 5  
OR 6 COUNTIES IN CENTRAL KS AS WELL.  
 
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY LOCATED IN NRN MT), WILL DROP SE INTO  
THE PLAINS BY THU AFTERNOON. THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL TREK  
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS, BUT CURRENT MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THIS  
SYSTEM WILL COME THROUGH A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE NE THAN THE  
PREVIOUS ONE. MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS RATHER LIMITED, BUT  
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE ALOT MORE SATURATED/WETTER THAN CURRENT MODEL  
QPF AMOUNTS SUGGEST. SO WILL CARRY AT LEAST A SLIGHT POP FOR LIGHT  
RAIN OR SPRINKLES AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS  
WILL BE VERY LIGHT, UNDER A FEW HUNDREDTHS.  
 
MID LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE  
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. AS THIS RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA, SOUTHERLY  
WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED FOR THE  
WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS.  
 
KETCHAM  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED APR 25 2018  
 
MID TO UPPER FLOW LOOKS TO SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN  
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS  
PATTERN CHANGE WILL OPEN UP THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RICHER SPRING-  
LIKE MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS FOR NEXT WEEK. THE  
PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME UNSETTLED FOR MON THRU WED, WITH INGREDIENTS  
IN PLACE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER TO AFFECT THE  
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL PROJECTIONS ARE  
FAVORING A TUE-WED PERIOD NEXT WEEK FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVE WEATHER, AND  
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD TO WATCH OVER THE UPCOMING DAYS.  
 
KETCHAM  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT WED APR 25 2018  
 
AVIATION CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW CLOUDS/RAIN TODAY AND  
FOG TONIGHT.  
 
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER NORTHEAST KS WITH WRAP-AROUND  
SHOWERS AFFECTING MOST OF NORTHEAST KS, GETTING INTO THE NORTHEAST  
PORTION OF FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION, DRIZZLE HAS BEEN ONGOING  
FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-135 THIS MORNING WITH THIS EXPECTED  
TO CONTINUE. MAY SEE VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO AROUND 3SM WITH THE  
DRIZZLE. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE POCKETS OF IFR CEILINGS TODAY FOR  
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-135 AS CEILINGS START TO LIFT TO VFR  
LEVELS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING.  
 
MAY SEE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS BACK TO AS FAR  
WEST AS KHUT. KICT & KHUT LOOK TO BE THE TERMINALS MOST AFFECTED  
WITH IFR LEVELS POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z. THIS WILL BE DUE TO LOW  
CLOUDS CLEARING OFF SETTING UP GOOD RADIATION COOLING CONDITIONS.  
MOIST GROUND ALSO WON'T HURT THE FOG POTENTIAL.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED APR 25 2018  
 
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT  
FOUR DAYS DUE TO RAINFALL TODAY, FOLLOWED BY LIGHTER WINDS FOR  
THURSDAY-SATURDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FOR SUNDAY  
INTO NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE  
WHICH SHOULD RAISE THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS. THE GRASSLAND FIRE  
DANGER LEVELS COULD REACH VERY HIGH LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON  
HOURS ON SUNDAY-TUESDAY FOR MAINLY CENTRAL KANSAS.  
 
JAKUB  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
WICHITA-KICT 38 69 41 70 / 0 10 10 0  
HUTCHINSON 36 68 39 70 / 0 10 10 0  
NEWTON 37 69 38 69 / 0 10 10 0  
ELDORADO 38 69 40 69 / 10 10 10 0  
WINFIELD-KWLD 38 70 40 69 / 0 10 10 0  
RUSSELL 35 65 35 72 / 0 20 0 0  
GREAT BEND 36 66 37 71 / 0 10 0 0  
SALINA 36 67 38 72 / 0 10 0 0  
MCPHERSON 35 68 37 69 / 0 10 0 0  
COFFEYVILLE 44 70 44 69 / 60 10 10 0  
CHANUTE 42 68 43 69 / 70 10 10 0  
IOLA 41 68 42 68 / 70 10 10 0  
PARSONS-KPPF 43 69 43 69 / 80 10 10 0  
 

 
   
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ032-033-  
047>050.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...KETCHAM  
LONG TERM...KETCHAM  
AVIATION...RBL  
FIRE WEATHER...CJ  
 
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