932
FXUS63 KICT 122006
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
306 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2008
DISCUSSION
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON TUESDAY
AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY:
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS IS KEEPING WINDS
AT OR ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA AT MANY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
I-135. THESE WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING...BUT WILL
LIKELY STAY UP PAST SUNSET. THE EXPIRATION TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY
(03Z) WILL BE KEPT AS IS. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT...BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES QUITE
A BIT MORE MILD THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT.
ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS SHAPING UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS
ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS EVENT LOOKS QUITE SIMILAR IN LOCATION AND TIMING TO THIS PAST
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH IT COULD ALL BE SHIFTED AN HOUR OR TWO LATER
DEPENDING WHEN THE CAP CAN BE BROKEN. GFS SHOWS A BIT MORE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE NAM/WRF AND WRFARW ARE
SHOWING THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE FROM ABOUT MARION TO
WINFIELD AND EASTWARD WHERE THE BEST CAPE IS. WE REMOVED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS FOR TUESDAY
SINCE THE FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH THIS AREA BEFORE THE CONVECTION
CAN GET GOING. SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH DEEP SHEAR AND
CAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG...AND THESE STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
AND LIKELY WITH SLOWER MOVEMENT.
THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
AFFECTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WE DID INCREASE THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT KEPT RAIN SHOWERS
RATHER THAN THUNDER SINCE ALL OF THE INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE SOUTH
OF THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY:
THE FIRST PART OF THIS PERIOD WILL INCLUDE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...BUT THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S SHOULD RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH NORTHWEST WINDS PROVIDING SOME DOWNSLOPE. THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME...SO
WE WILL KEEP SOME CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE A DRY PART OF THE FORECAST.
SCHRECK
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
WICHITA-KICT 59 73 51 70 / 10 10 10 0
HUTCHINSON 56 65 47 70 / 10 10 0 0
NEWTON 57 69 49 69 / 10 20 10 0
ELDORADO 57 74 50 69 / 10 20 10 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 60 75 52 71 / 10 20 10 0
RUSSELL 53 58 45 71 / 10 20 0 0
GREAT BEND 53 57 45 71 / 10 10 0 0
SALINA 55 60 47 70 / 10 20 0 0
MCPHERSON 54 63 48 69 / 10 20 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 61 77 54 69 / 10 40 40 10
CHANUTE 59 75 53 68 / 10 40 30 10
IOLA 58 74 54 68 / 10 40 30 10
PARSONS-KPPF 60 76 54 69 / 10 40 40 10
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-
047>052-067-068-082-083-091-092.
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