301  
FXUS63 KICT 201154  
AFDICT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS  
654 AM CDT MON AUG 20 2018  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT MON AUG 20 2018  
 
ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED STORM  
OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS TODAY AS MID-  
LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE VIGOROUS MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVING  
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA. BETTER  
CHANCES SHOULD BE WEIGHTED EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH CLEARING  
ANTICIPATED FROM WEST TO EAST WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING  
FOR SUBSIDENCE ARRIVING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. WITH ABUNDANT  
MORNING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED H85 CAA, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN  
WELL BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR MOST  
AREAS.  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO CENTRAL KS TONIGHT BRINGING  
LIGHT WINDS AND MUCH DRIER AIR TO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR  
INCREASED RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID 50S  
IN LOW-LYING AREAS. ANOTHER QUIET DAY IS ANTICIPATED ON TUE ACROSS  
THE AREA WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MOST AREAS WILL SEE  
AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S.  
 
MAINTAINED LOW POPS TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS CONVECTION DEVELOPING  
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS MAY PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA  
AS WE REMAIN ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE MID/UPPER RIDGE WHERE  
A BROAD AREA OF MID-LVL WAA IS PROGGED. CONTINUED CLOUDS AND AREAS  
OF PRECIPITATION WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN  
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT MON AUG 20 2018  
 
ANOTHER ROBUST MID/UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO EMERGE FROM  
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OVER THE GREAT PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND  
THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH, BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL  
DRAW ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON THU WITH  
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS  
MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND  
STEEPENING MID-LVL LAPSE RATES.  
 
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS  
STATES ON FRI WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SHIFTING  
EAST OF THE AREA. MAINTAINED DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE  
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS WE REMAIN WITHIN A W TO SW MID/UPPER  
FLOW REGIME ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH  
IS PROGGED TO REMAIN CAMPED ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND  
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO MORE  
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT MON AUG 20 2018  
 
AT 11Z, FAIRLY INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NW MO/SW IA  
BORDER. THE LOW IS SPREADING "LOW-END" MVFR CIGS FROM 1200-1700FT  
ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF KS. (THE EXCEPTION IS SE KS.) A NARROW NE-SW  
ORIENTED BAND OF RA IS MOVING THROUGH KSLN WHERE VSBYS WERE  
BRIEFLY AS LOW AS 2 1/2SM BETWEEN 1110Z & 1120Z BUT THE VSBYS HAVE  
IMPROVED RAPIDLY. WHERE THE RA IS OCCURRING CIGS MAY BRIEFLY DROP  
JUST BELOW 1,000FT. CIGS WILL LIFT THIS MORNING AS THE LOW BEGINS  
TO MOVE E ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST  
AREAS RETURNING TO VFR STATUS MID-LATE AFTERNOON. NW WINDS  
SUSTAINED FROM 15-25KTS WITH 25-30KT GUSTS ARE LIKELY IN ALL AREAS  
UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH RAPID DIMINISHMENT OCCURRING  
~21/00Z.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
WICHITA-KICT 79 61 83 64 / 10 0 0 40  
HUTCHINSON 78 59 81 62 / 10 0 0 50  
NEWTON 78 59 81 62 / 10 0 0 40  
ELDORADO 77 59 81 62 / 10 0 0 40  
WINFIELD-KWLD 80 61 84 64 / 10 0 0 40  
RUSSELL 77 57 79 60 / 10 0 10 50  
GREAT BEND 78 56 80 60 / 10 0 10 60  
SALINA 78 59 82 62 / 20 0 0 40  
MCPHERSON 78 59 81 61 / 20 0 0 50  
COFFEYVILLE 80 63 84 64 / 20 0 0 20  
CHANUTE 77 63 82 62 / 30 0 0 10  
IOLA 76 63 82 62 / 30 0 0 10  
PARSONS-KPPF 79 62 83 64 / 20 0 0 10  
 

 
   
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...MWM  
LONG TERM...MWM  
AVIATION...EPS  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab KS Page Main Text Page