306  
FXUS63 KICT 282328  
AFDICT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS  
628 PM CDT WED JUN 28 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED JUN 28 2017  
 
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS/CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO FOCUS AROUND  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS EVENING/TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING,  
AND AGAIN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.  
 
THIS EVENING-TONIGHT...COULD SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO  
AFTER 5-7 PM GENERALLY NORTH OF GREAT BEND TO SALINA, AS A WEAK  
FRONTAL ZONE/WIND SHIFT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. UPPER  
SUPPORT IS NEGLIGIBLE TO NON-EXISTENT AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS  
WEAK, SO THERE'S A CHANCE THE CAP WILL NOT BE BREACHED FOR STORM  
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, IF A STORM OR TWO CAN MANAGE TO FORM, STRONG  
INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD PROMOTE  
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THINKING  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS  
NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST KANSAS AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES, MAINLY  
ALONG/NORTH OF I- 70, AS A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON  
THE NEARLY STALLED FRONTAL ZONE, AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES  
FROM THE WEST. THIS ACTIVITY MAY INITIALLY POSE A LARGE HAIL  
THREAT, BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A WIND THREAT, WITH  
SPORADIC DAMAGING WIND OCCURRENCES POSSIBLE.  
 
THURSDAY...SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN THAN  
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT THURSDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING. LATEST SHORT-TERM  
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TONIGHT'S THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL TRACK A BIT  
FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT, WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE  
ORIENTATION AND LOCATION OF THE BETTER 700MB THERMAL GRADIENT AND  
RAP INSTABILITY AXIS. THIS LENDS CONFIDENCE IN THURSDAY'S FRONTAL  
PLACEMENT FROM NORTHEAST KS, SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST  
KS. HOWEVER, LIKE TODAY WEAK UPPER FORCING AND RELATIVELY WARM  
MID- LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY TEND TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE  
ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON, WITH CHANCES POSSIBLY  
HOLDING OFF ALTOGETHER UNTIL THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHEN BETTER  
UPPER FORCING APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET  
INCREASES. REGARDLESS, STRONG INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH MODEST DEEP  
LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN  
DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING, WITH THE THREAT TRANSITIONING TO  
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND OCCURRENCES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY  
NIGHT, AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO EASTERN/SOUTHEAST KS.  
 
FRIDAY...THREAT FOR STORMS COULD LINGER OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KS FOR  
FRIDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING, ESPECIALLY IF THURSDAY NIGHT'S  
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX REMAINS ON THE SMALLER SIDE AND DOESN'T  
ACCELERATE THE FRONTAL ZONE SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA. IF SO, SEVERE  
STORMS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, COOLER  
WEATHER BEGINS ARRIVING BY FRIDAY IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  
 
SATURDAY...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS  
SOUTH IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED JUN 28 2017  
 
SUNDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...LOW CONFIDENCE/LOW PREDICTABILITY  
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND. OPERATIONAL MODEL CONSENSUS  
SUGGESTS UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNING FOR AT LEAST SUNDAY AND  
MONDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE SLOWLY MIGRATES OVER MID-AMERICA. WEAK  
UPPER FLOW SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS, ALTHOUGH A FEW  
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE GIVEN  
INSTABILITY, ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. MODEL SOLUTIONS  
DIVERGE FROM TUESDAY AND BEYOND, WITH THE GFS KEEPING AN UNSETTLED  
WEATHER PATTERN ALL WEEK, AND THE ECMWF BUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE  
FROM THE SOUTHWEST, RESULTING IN BETTER CHANCES FOR QUIET AND WARM  
WEATHER. FOR NOW WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR  
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH MID-WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT WED JUN 28 2017  
 
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY ACCOMPANY A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT  
AFTER 06-08Z ACROSS CENTRAL KS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY  
PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KS DURING THE  
PREDAWN HOURS. FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY BE REDUCED ACROSS CENTRAL KS  
AND PERHAPS SOUTHEAST KANSAS UNDER THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY. BREEZY  
SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF  
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS BUT WIND GUST SPEED WILL DIMINISH  
AFTER SUNSET.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
WICHITA-KICT 73 96 69 86 / 10 10 40 30  
HUTCHINSON 72 96 66 85 / 10 20 40 20  
NEWTON 72 94 67 84 / 10 20 50 30  
ELDORADO 72 92 68 84 / 10 10 50 40  
WINFIELD-KWLD 74 94 71 86 / 0 10 40 40  
RUSSELL 68 94 64 85 / 40 20 30 20  
GREAT BEND 69 95 65 85 / 20 20 30 10  
SALINA 70 95 67 86 / 40 20 40 10  
MCPHERSON 71 95 66 85 / 10 20 40 20  
COFFEYVILLE 73 91 72 86 / 0 0 40 50  
CHANUTE 72 90 70 84 / 10 10 50 50  
IOLA 71 90 69 84 / 10 10 50 50  
PARSONS-KPPF 73 90 71 85 / 0 0 40 50  
 

 
   
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...ADK  
LONG TERM...ADK  
AVIATION...MWM  
 
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