266  
FXUS63 KICT 230854 AAA  
AFDICT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS  
336 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2018  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2018  
 
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS INCLUDE...1) THUNDERSTORM  
POTENTIAL SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...2) HIGH  
PROBABILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND BEYOND.  
 
SUSPECT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HAVE ENDED FOR THE NIGHT/DAY,  
AS EXPANSIVE COLD POOL HAS ENVELOPED THE AREA IN WAKE OF A LARGE  
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CURRENTLY PROGRESSING ACROSS SOUTHEAST  
OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER, HELD ONTO LOW POPS THIS MORNING FOR LOCATIONS  
NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEST MID-LEVEL  
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY. THINKING  
THIS POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE KS/OK  
BORDER THOUGH. REST OF DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST  
AREA, WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND FORECAST HIGHS MOSTLY IN  
THE 80S.  
 
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO STRONG/SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL SUNDAY  
THRU SUNDAY NIGHT, AS POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM  
THE NORTHWEST INTERACTS WITH A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN  
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY, FORCING AND  
LOW TO DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR SEVERE  
STORMS, HIGHEST GENERALLY WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS, THERE REMAINS  
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING TIMING OF STORMS. SCENARIO  
ONE SUPPORTED BY THE NAM SUGGESTS AN EARLIER ONSET OF STORMS  
SOMETIME SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST  
AREA, IN RESPONSE TO STRONG HIGH PLAINS LIFT AHEAD OF THE  
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP, THIS EARLIER  
CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AND LINEAR IN NATURE,  
POSING PRIMARILY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. SCENARIO 2 SUPPORTED BY  
MOST OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS DOES NOT DEVELOP EXPANSIVE EARLY  
MORNING HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION, AND SUGGESTS A LATER ONSET OF STORMS  
SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN WARM  
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND ASSOCIATED STRONG CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.  
THIS LATER ONSET COULD SUPPORT A MORE DIVERSE STORM MODE WITH ALL  
SEVERE HAZARDS POSSIBLE, INCLUDING LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND  
PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES. EVEN THOUGH THE NAM IS THE OUTLIER, DO NOT  
WANT TO DISCOUNT THE EARLIER ONSET SCENARIO SINCE IT SEEMS  
REASONABLE GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP. REGARDLESS, DEGREE OF  
INSTABILITY, LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND FORCING SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR  
A HIGHER-END SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND  
FLOODING ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS...STAY TUNED.  
 
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT WILL DEPEND ON EXTENT  
OF SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT STORMS AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW. IF OUTFLOW  
DOES NOT OBLITERATE ANY SEMBLANCE OF AN UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR,  
CONTINUED LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE  
AND TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO  
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING ACROSS  
EASTERN/SOUTHEAST KS. INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBO WOULD SUPPORT A  
SEVERE THREAT, ALTHOUGH PROBABLY NOT TO THE EXTENT OF SUNDAY'S  
EPISODE.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2018  
 
GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES STRONGLY SUPPORT A RETURN TO HOT, MOSTLY  
DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER FROM TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT  
WEEKEND, AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS MID-AMERICA AND LEE  
TROUGHING PERSISTS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. FORECAST HIGH  
TEMPERATURES ARE WELL INTO THE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES, WITH  
OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL INTO THE 70S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2018  
 
WIDESPREAD RA (THERE ARE A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA IN SE KS) CONTINUE  
TO MOVE SE ~35KTS. AT 05Z ALL RA WAS CONFINED TO SC & SE KS ALONG,  
& E, OF I-35/I-135. THE POTENTIAL FOR "LOW-END" MVFR & PERHAPS  
EVEN IFR CIGS REMAINS HIGH IN NEARLY ALL AREAS AS LIGHT, GENERALLY  
SE WIND, INDUCES ENOUGH UPSLOPE TO BRING DECKS DOWN TO  
1,000-1,500FT SAT MORNING. THE GREATEST IFR CIG POTENTIAL EXISTS  
ACROSS C KS WHERE 700-800FT DECKS ARE LIKELY FROM 09-15Z. MID SAT  
MORNING, THE ONSET OF S-SW WINDS, ALBEIT 10KTS OR LESS, WILL SCOUR  
THE STRATUS FROM THE C KS TERMINALS. INSOLATION COUPLED WITH  
SOAKED GROUNDS WOULD PROMOTE MVFR CIGS ACROSS SC & SE KS THAT MAY  
PERSIST WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2018  
 
LONGER-RANGE GFS ENSEMBLES, INCLUDING 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND  
850MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES, ALONG WITH OUTLOOKS ISSUED BY THE  
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER SUPPORT CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY. THIS LARGE-  
SCALE PATTERN WOULD ALSO SUPPORT LOW TO NIL PRECIPITATION CHANCES  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. MANY AREAS ARE EXPERIENCING ONE OF  
THEIR WARMEST JUNE'S ON RECORD, AND WITH THE EXPECTED HOT WEATHER  
THROUGH AT LEAST MONTH'S END, MONTHLY JUNE TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY  
BE IN JEOPARDY.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
WICHITA-KICT 89 69 90 69 / 10 0 40 70  
HUTCHINSON 88 68 89 67 / 0 0 50 70  
NEWTON 88 68 88 68 / 10 0 40 70  
ELDORADO 86 67 87 69 / 10 0 30 60  
WINFIELD-KWLD 87 69 89 70 / 10 10 20 60  
RUSSELL 89 67 86 64 / 0 10 60 70  
GREAT BEND 89 67 87 64 / 0 10 60 70  
SALINA 88 68 89 68 / 0 0 60 70  
MCPHERSON 88 68 88 67 / 0 0 50 70  
COFFEYVILLE 87 69 88 72 / 20 10 20 50  
CHANUTE 85 68 88 71 / 20 10 30 60  
IOLA 85 67 88 70 / 20 10 30 60  
PARSONS-KPPF 86 69 88 72 / 20 10 20 50  
 

 
   
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...ADK  
LONG TERM...ADK  
AVIATION...EPS  
CLIMATE...ADK  
 
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