726  
FXUS63 KICT 180444  
AFDICT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS  
1044 PM CST SAT FEB 17 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SAT FEB 17 2018  
 
THE TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT IS ON THE MOVE EASTWARD  
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. A RIDGE HAS FOLLOWED IN BEHIND THE  
EXITING TROUGH. TODAY WAS A NICE DAY TO BE OUTSIDE WITH  
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SAT FEB 17 2018  
 
FORECAST CHALLENGES AND HIGHLIGHTS: ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS FOR  
SUNDAY AND CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY  
 
A TROUGH IS TRAVELING DOWN THE ROCKIES. THERE IS A FIRST WAVE THAT  
WILL MOVE FROM THE FRONT RANGE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS PART  
OF THE SYSTEM STAYS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IF YOU ENJOYED  
SATURDAY, SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS CLIMBING TO AROUND  
70 DEGREES IN CENTRAL KANSAS. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE GOING TO BE IN  
FILL FORCE THOUGH WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH IN THE  
AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST IS JUST AT THE CRITERIA THRESHOLD FOR A  
WIND ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL KANSAS; HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL ISSUANCE OF  
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS PROMPTED A HOLD IN ISSUING AN ADVISORY.  
MESSAGING WILL BE PUT OUT ON SOCIAL MEDIA TO ALERT OF THE GUSTY  
SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR NOW. THERE IS A RETURN IN MOISTURE ACROSS  
OKLAHOMA INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WOULD  
PLAY TO INCREASING THE DEW POINTS, BUT THIS WILL NOT MAKE MUCH OF A  
DIFFERENCE IN TERMS OF THE ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY IN  
CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR FEW  
COUNTIES TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT. PLEASE SEE THE WATCH AND FIRE  
WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION. ADJUSTMENTS IN THE WIND SPEEDS  
OR DEW POINTS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS UP STREAM AND MODEL  
GUIDANCE COULD BE BETTER INDICATORS FOR ADDITIONAL HEADLINES.  
 
A TROUGH FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL STRETCH FROM THE NORTHEAST  
TO SOUTHWEST OR ROUGHLY LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE FRONT RANGE.  
INCREASED MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS GOING TO STAY TO START THE WEEK  
WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE  
ATLANTIC CREATING A TRANSITIONAL ZONE FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION REMAIN IN THE FORECAST BEGINNING SUNDAY  
NIGHT THRU TUESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ARE  
GOING TO BE IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS, MISSOURI AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA.  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. TOTAL RAINFALL  
COULD BE A HALF OF AN INCH UP TO NEARLY TWO INCHES FOR SOUTHEAST  
KANSAS. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY APPEARS NOW TO BE THE TIME  
PERIOD FOR THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN AS THE TROUGH IS ON THE  
MOVE. CHANGES TO THIS PART OF THE FORECAST COULD OCCUR IN THE  
COMING DAYS.  
 
THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OUT ON TUESDAY AND USHER IN COLD AIR  
WITH THE ROLLERCOASTER BACK INTO ACTION. TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY TO  
TUESDAY COULD BASICALLY BE CUT IN HALF ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE.  
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER, TEMPERATURES MAY STILL BE IN THE 50S  
THOUGH.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SAT FEB 17 2018  
 
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL DROP  
TO THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS WITH THE LOWEST VALUES IN NORTH  
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. WIND CHILLS ARE CALCULATED TO BE  
FROM 0 TO -10 DEGREES NORTHWEST OF THE FLINT HILLS ON WEDNESDAY  
MORNING. MAKE SURE TO BUNDLE UP BEFORE HEADING OUT THE DOOR. AFTER  
THE TROUGH EXITS, THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL CLIMB IN THE TEMPERATURES  
TO FOLLOW. THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOWS UP FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  
THERE IS A DIFFERENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE MODELS, BUT THE  
SUGGESTION OF PRECIPITATION RETURNS FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO  
FRIDAY. A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES IS POSSIBLE IN THE FORM OF  
FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CST SAT FEB 17 2018  
 
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS LEE  
TROUGHING INCREASES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS, A STRONG  
LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE ON SUNDAY WITH WINDS JUST  
OFF OF THE SURFACE IN THE 40-50KT RANGE FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF  
INTERSTATE 135. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONG ON SUN WITH SUSTAINED  
SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30 KTS AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 KTS.  
 
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY FOR SUN EVENING, WITH AREAS  
OF MVFR AND EVEN SOME IFR CIGS MOVING INTO THE KICT AND KCNU TAF  
SITES AFTER 03Z/MON.  
 
KETCHAM  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SAT FEB 17 2018  
 
SUNDAY IS THE HIGHLIGHT DAY IN TERMS OF ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS  
OVER THE AREA. THE MAIN COMPONENTS WILL BE SOUTHERLY WINDS AT  
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH  
AND THE PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS. CENTRAL KANSAS IS ANTICIPATED  
TO REACH EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER. THUS A FIRE WEATHER WATCH  
WAS ISSUED FOR FIVE COUNTIES IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS  
THREAT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST WATCH FOR MORE DETAILS. BURNING IS  
DISCOURAGED ACROSS ARGUABLY THE ENTIRE STATE OF KANSAS ON SUNDAY  
GIVEN THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS. VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS  
FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON MONDAY WITH  
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE  
BROUGHT INTO THE FORECAST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY. THE BEST  
CHANCE FOR RAIN IS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
WICHITA-KICT 35 63 56 70 / 0 0 10 20  
HUTCHINSON 29 65 52 63 / 0 0 10 10  
NEWTON 34 62 54 64 / 0 0 10 20  
ELDORADO 35 61 56 69 / 0 0 20 40  
WINFIELD-KWLD 36 63 58 73 / 0 10 20 30  
RUSSELL 34 72 36 45 / 0 0 10 10  
GREAT BEND 35 72 41 51 / 0 0 10 10  
SALINA 33 66 48 53 / 0 0 20 10  
MCPHERSON 34 65 51 58 / 0 0 10 10  
COFFEYVILLE 33 62 57 71 / 0 10 40 60  
CHANUTE 30 60 56 69 / 0 0 50 50  
IOLA 32 60 56 68 / 0 0 40 50  
PARSONS-KPPF 29 61 57 70 / 0 0 50 50  
 

 
   
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ032-033-047-048-050.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...VJP  
SHORT TERM...VJP  
LONG TERM...VJP  
AVIATION...KETCHAM  
FIRE WEATHER...VJP  
 
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