036  
FXUS63 KICT 230337  
AFDICT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS  
1037 PM CDT TUE AUG 22 2017  
   
..UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION
 
 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT TUE AUG 22 2017  
 
A COLD FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY THROUGH KANSAS AND INHIBITED THE  
CHANCES OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND ONE  
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED IN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY, BUT OTHERWISE NOTHING  
WAS ABLE TO FORM. THE STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS DID  
INFLUENCE THE LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING TO HELP AID ANY DEVELOPMENT.  
IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS, A TROUGH IS POSITIONED OVER THE  
GREAT LAKES INTO HUDSON BAY WHILE A RIDGE IS OVER THE WESTERN HALF  
OF THE CONUS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT TUE AUG 22 2017  
 
THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES BRINGS A  
SECONDARY WAVE WHICH WILL LIKELY STAY EAST OF THE AREA FOR  
WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING ONSHORE SYSTEM OFF OF THE WEST COAST  
WILL MOVE ITS WAY EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES  
TOWARDS THE ROCKIES INTO THURSDAY, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR  
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE  
HIGH PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY COULD TRACK INTO CENTRAL KANSAS ON  
THURSDAY NIGHT. BETTER INSTABILITY IS WEST IN THE HIGH PLAINS.  
TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.  
 
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THERE ARE TROPICAL  
REMNANTS FROM HARVEY THAT GATHER STEAM BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE ON  
FRIDAY BETWEEN SOUTH PADRE TO JUST NORTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI  
DEPENDING ON THE CHOSEN MODEL. IF YOU BELIEVE THE GFS, THIS SYSTEM  
WILL QUICKLY WIND UP; THIS MODEL IS CERTAINLY STRENGTHENS IT MUCH  
GREATER THAN THE ECMWF. CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS ARE NOTED  
LEADING THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO HAVE A 90% CHANCE OF  
CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GULF WILL OPEN UP  
NICELY IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROPICAL ACTIVITY WHICH WILL POOL  
MOISTURE INTO KANSAS IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT TUE AUG 22 2017  
 
LOADED MODEL BLENDS ARE CONSISTING ON KEEPING CHANCES OF  
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND THANKS TO A SOUTHERLY WAVE OFF  
OF THE MAIN LOW IN CANADA. THIS WAVE COULD LEAD TO INITIATION OF  
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. AS THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES  
NORTHEAST, IT MAINTAINING ITS TEXAS ROOTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
THIS SYSTEM FINALLY KICKS OUT ONCE THE NORTHERN SYSTEM GETS ENOUGH  
GUSTO AT THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEXAS WILL BE IN FOR PLENTY  
OF WATER. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, THERE COULD BE  
AN INFLUENCE TO KANSAS, BUT LIKELY THIS WILL NOT BE THE CASE AS IT  
ANTICIPATED TO STAY OFF TO THE EAST. PERSISTENT HIGHS IN THE 80S  
WILL KEEP ON GOING THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AS WELL WHICH  
IS CERTAINLY QUITE A WAY TO END THE MONTH OF AUGUST. THE PREVIOUS  
FORECAST WAS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE  
TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT TUE AUG 22 2017  
 
LOW VFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST SOUTH OF THE KS/OK BORDER  
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS, BEFORE CONTINUING TO SINK SOUTH. OTHERWISE,  
SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ALL AREAS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS  
WILL BE LIGHT NORTHEAST TONIGHT, TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY AND  
STRENGTHENING A TAD FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
WICHITA-KICT 59 83 60 85 / 0 0 0 0  
HUTCHINSON 56 83 58 84 / 0 0 0 10  
NEWTON 57 81 58 83 / 0 0 0 0  
ELDORADO 58 81 58 83 / 0 0 0 0  
WINFIELD-KWLD 59 83 59 85 / 10 0 0 0  
RUSSELL 55 86 59 86 / 0 0 0 10  
GREAT BEND 56 85 59 85 / 0 0 0 10  
SALINA 57 85 58 86 / 0 0 0 10  
MCPHERSON 56 83 58 84 / 0 0 0 10  
COFFEYVILLE 60 83 58 84 / 10 0 0 0  
CHANUTE 57 81 58 83 / 0 0 0 0  
IOLA 57 80 58 82 / 0 0 0 0  
PARSONS-KPPF 59 82 59 84 / 10 0 0 0  
 

 
   
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...JUANITA  
SHORT TERM...JUANITA  
LONG TERM...JUANITA  
AVIATION...ADK  
 
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