732  
FXUS63 KICT 250429  
AFDICT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS  
1129 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2017  
 
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE  
WEATHER.  
 
INITIAL GULF MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF UPPER  
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE ALONG THE  
CALIFORNIA COAST THIS AFTERNOON, IS PROGGED TO EJECT EAST-  
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF COLORADO ACROSS KANSAS LATE THURSDAY INTO  
THURSDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED-SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE PROGGED TO  
DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO THURSDAY AFTERNOON, IN MODESTLY  
MOIST, POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS ACTIVITY MAY MERGE INTO AN  
MCS CLUSTER, PROPAGATING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH  
CENTRAL KANSAS THURSDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS MAY POSE  
A MARGINAL SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT TO OUR CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES,  
WITH MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY/SHEAR PRESENT ALONG WITH VERY  
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST THURSDAY  
NIGHT IN THE SOUTH, WHERE THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SHOULD KEEP  
THE AREA CAPPED.  
 
ON FRIDAY, THE COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO STALL FROM CENTRAL  
MISSOURI TO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, WITH THE TRAILING WESTERN END OF THE  
FRONT UP INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED  
TO EJECT OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATE FRIDAY,  
AND ACROSS KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS WARM AND  
HUMID WITH MOST OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINING DRY. SCATTERED  
SEVERE STORMS SHOULD INITIATE OVER EASTERN COLORADO FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON/EVENING, FROM THE COMBINATION OF MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND  
THE APPROACHING WAVE. THIS ACTIVITY COULD MERGE INTO ANOTHER MCS  
CLUSTER OR TWO, PROPAGATING EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT  
INTO SATURDAY, AIDED BY A MODERATE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AND  
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT. VERY STRONG INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP-  
LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IN THE FORECAST  
AREA, AS THE UPPER WAVE AND MCS CLUSTERS MOVE THROUGH. OUTFLOW  
EFFECTS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT, COULD AFFECT WHERE  
THE EFFECTIVE FRONT ENDS UP BY PEAK HEATING SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT EXTREME  
INSTABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR TARGET THE SOUTHEAST PART OF KANSAS  
NEAR THE FRONT, WITH A RELATIVELY HIGHER PROBABILITY OF SEVERE  
STORMS EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2017  
 
THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO  
THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL SHUNT THE  
RICHER GULF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF STATES FROM  
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. A FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE  
KANSAS REGION LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT, WHERE IT MAY STALL  
THROUGH MIDWEEK BENEATH A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED MID-LEVEL  
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS MAY SUPPORT SMALL CHANCES FOR  
SHOWERS/STORMS. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS  
EXTENDED PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2017  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KANSAS DURING  
THE NEXT 24HRS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS  
AROUND DAYBREAK, OTHERWISE LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL  
INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
WICHITA-KICT 50 80 61 83 / 0 0 10 0  
HUTCHINSON 50 79 59 82 / 0 0 20 0  
NEWTON 49 78 60 81 / 0 0 10 10  
ELDORADO 48 79 61 83 / 0 0 10 10  
WINFIELD-KWLD 49 81 62 85 / 0 0 10 0  
RUSSELL 49 80 56 80 / 0 0 40 10  
GREAT BEND 50 81 57 80 / 0 0 30 10  
SALINA 50 80 59 82 / 0 0 20 10  
MCPHERSON 49 79 59 81 / 0 0 20 10  
COFFEYVILLE 46 79 64 85 / 0 0 10 20  
CHANUTE 46 78 62 83 / 0 0 10 20  
IOLA 46 78 62 82 / 0 0 10 20  
PARSONS-KPPF 46 78 63 84 / 0 0 10 20  
 

 
   
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...JMC  
LONG TERM...JMC  
AVIATION...CDJ  
 
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