843  
FXUS63 KICT 171722  
AFDICT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS  
1222 PM CDT TUE OCT 17 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT TUE OCT 17 2017  
 
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER ANTICIPATED AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EAST ON  
TUESDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN RETURN FLOW. LOOKS MORE LIKELY THAT  
WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL KS WEDNESDAY NIGHT  
AND THEN RETREAT AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT  
MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE PRECIPITATION. -HOWERTON  
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT TUE OCT 17 2017  
 
MUCH FOCUS WAS DIRECTED TO THIS PERIOD WITH SEVERAL INITIALIZATION  
ISSUES TO ADJUST PER CONSENSUS. INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE  
GRADIENT AND MIXING WILL SUPPORT BRISK SOUTH WINDS BY FRIDAY AND  
INTO SATURDAY, FASTER THAN THE NOTORIOUSLY LOW BIASED  
INITIALIZATION GRIDS IN THIS SCENARIO. THE STRONGER WINDS ALSO  
SUPPORT WARMER LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT, ALBEIT WITH ONE CAVEAT IN  
SOUTHEAST KS. IN SOUTHEAST KS, MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW  
PROBABILITIES OF ELEVATED PRECIPITATION IN WARM AIR ADVECTION  
PATTERN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. IF THIS OCCURS, GIVEN SURFACE  
DEWPOINTS, TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY WET BULB BELOW INITIALIZATION  
GRIDS FOR LOWS. HOWEVER PRECIPITATION APPEARS UNLIKELY IN WESTERN  
SECTIONS AND ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UP ACCORDINGLY. EVEN WITH  
ADJUSTMENTS, MINIMUMS COULD EASILY BE EVEN WARMER, POTENTIALLY IN  
THE UPPER 60S, PER VERIFICATION IN THIS PATTERN. TIMING OF THE  
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH GFS  
STILL RUNNING ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. THIS WILL PLAY  
INTO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. IF SLOWER ECMWF VERIFIES,  
THIS COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER ACROSS SOUTH  
CENTRAL KS ON SATURDAY WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW JUST AHEAD  
OF THE FRONT. CLEARING MOVES IN QUICKLY ON SUNDAY. LATEST ECMWF  
RUN HAS TRENDED AWAY FROM STRONG CLOSED LOW AND PRECIPITATION  
CHANCES HAVE DWINDLED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. -HOWERTON  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT TUE OCT 17 2017  
 
AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE SOME MILD WIND SHEAR LATER TONIGHT.  
 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT UPPER IMPULSE TRACKING ACROSS  
EASTERN WY/WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TRACKING  
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR  
THIS FEATURE TO PRODUCE ANY CLOUDS OR PRECIP. LEE TROUGHING IS  
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE WHICH WILL KEEP SOUTH/SW WINDS IN  
PLACE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAY SEE SOME WIND SHEAR AFTER 06Z  
AS WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE GUST TO AROUND 35KTS OVER MAINLY  
SOUTH CENTRAL KS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL  
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
WICHITA-KICT 74 49 77 51 / 0 0 0 0  
HUTCHINSON 75 49 77 49 / 0 0 0 0  
NEWTON 73 49 75 49 / 0 0 0 0  
ELDORADO 73 50 76 51 / 0 0 0 0  
WINFIELD-KWLD 74 50 77 51 / 0 0 0 0  
RUSSELL 78 48 81 47 / 0 0 0 0  
GREAT BEND 77 47 80 47 / 0 0 0 0  
SALINA 76 50 78 48 / 0 0 0 0  
MCPHERSON 75 49 76 48 / 0 0 0 0  
COFFEYVILLE 72 47 76 50 / 0 0 0 0  
CHANUTE 71 47 75 50 / 0 0 0 0  
IOLA 71 47 74 50 / 0 0 0 0  
PARSONS-KPPF 71 47 75 50 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...PJH  
LONG TERM...PJH  
AVIATION...RBL  
 
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