075  
FXUS63 KICT 121100  
AFDICT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS  
500 AM CST TUE DEC 12 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST TUE DEC 12 2017  
 
TODAY:  
A MID-UPPER DECK LONGWAVE TROUGH, DEEPER THAN THE MARIANAS TRENCH,  
IS SITUATED FROM THE GREAT LAKES ALL THE WAY TO ABOUT MISSISSIPPI,  
WHILE AN ULTRA-HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER-DECK RIDGE COVERS WESTERN  
NORTH AMERICA FROM BAJA CA ALL THE WAY TO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/  
ALBERTA BORDER. BOTH CONTINUE TO KEEP THE GREAT PLAINS UNDER A  
STRONG DUE NORTH MID-UPPER REGIME. SUCH A PATTERN WILL FORCE A  
FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE  
STRAIGHT SOUTH TODAY WITH THE HIGH CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS THIS  
EVENING. THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL INDUCE NW WINDS TO  
BACK TOWARD THE WEST AS TODAY PROGRESSES. WITH COLDER AIR  
FILTERING IN FROM WESTERN KS, IT STILL WON'T BE NEARLY AS WARM AS  
YESTERDAY, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST KS.  
 
TONIGHT & WED:  
THE NEXT SHARP BUT COMPACT MID-UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL SPRINT S/SE  
FROM SASKATCHEWAN & SHOULD REACH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WED  
EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE WILL KICK A SURFACE TROUGH RAPIDLY SE  
ACROSS THE CWA WED MORNING. AIRMASS IN WAKE OF TROUGH PASSAGE  
BECOMES DRY ADIABATIC EARLY WED AFTERNOON & WITH EXCELLENT  
MOMENTUM TRANSFER WINDY & WARMER WEATHER RESULTS FOR ALL AREAS.  
WHILE THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WOULD INCREASE, THE INDICES ARE  
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR CENTRAL OR  
SOUTH-CENTRAL KS WED AFTERNOON.  
 
WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT:  
THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL SAIL QUICKLY S/SE FROM SASKATCHEWAN &  
MANITOBA LATE WED NIGHT & STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT CROSSES  
THE IMMEDIATE KS NEIGHBORHOOD THU & THU NIGHT. GREATEST MOISTURE  
FLUX TARGETS AREAS JUST NE OF OUR CWA & AS SUCH KEPT DRY FORECAST  
INTACT.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 2 AM CST TUE DEC 12 2017  
 
THE STRONG UPPER-DECK RIDGE THAT HAS COVERED WESTERN NORTH AMERICA  
WILL DEAMPLIFY RAPIDLY AS IT GETS FORCED EAST ACROSS THE GREAT  
PLAINS BY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE FRI & FRI NIGHT. THE POSITIVELY-  
TILTED UPPER WAVE CROSSING THE WESTERN U.S. WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS  
IT CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS SAT & SAT NIGHT. THE STRENGTHENING  
WAVE SHOULD EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY TO AROUND NEW MEXICO  
ON SUN. THE MID-UPPER WAVE WILL KICK A WEAK COLD FRONT SE ACROSS  
KS SAT NIGHT. SINCE THE FRONT IS FAIRLY WEAK, TEMPERATURES WON'T  
COOL THAT MUCH FROM SAT TO SUN WITH SUN'S HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S.  
MON WILL BE WARMER AS LOWER-DECK FLOW BACKS TOWARD THE WEST WHICH  
WOULD ENABLE HIGHS TO REACH BACK INTO THE MID 50S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST TUE DEC 12 2017  
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MIGRATE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL  
KANSAS THIS MORNING AND OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  
WINDS WILL BACK FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY  
AND REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. A SURFACE TROF WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL  
KANSAS LATE TONIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AND BECOMING  
GUSTY TOWARD THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD AT KRSL. EXCEPT FOR SOME  
SCT STRATOCU THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN  
KANSAS, GENERALLY CLEAR TODAY AND TONIGHT.  
 
KED  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
WICHITA-KICT 53 32 61 31 / 0 0 0 0  
HUTCHINSON 53 31 60 29 / 0 0 0 0  
NEWTON 51 31 58 30 / 0 0 0 0  
ELDORADO 50 31 59 30 / 0 0 0 0  
WINFIELD-KWLD 51 31 61 31 / 0 0 0 0  
RUSSELL 56 31 59 28 / 0 0 0 0  
GREAT BEND 56 31 59 29 / 0 0 0 0  
SALINA 53 31 59 30 / 0 0 0 0  
MCPHERSON 52 29 59 29 / 0 0 0 0  
COFFEYVILLE 48 30 61 30 / 0 0 0 0  
CHANUTE 46 30 59 30 / 0 0 0 0  
IOLA 46 30 58 30 / 0 0 0 0  
PARSONS-KPPF 47 30 61 31 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...EPS  
LONG TERM...EPS  
AVIATION...KED  
 
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