454  
FXUS63 KSGF 242301  
AFDSGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
601 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016  
   
..00Z AVIATION FORECAST UPDATE
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016  
 
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN  
HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS  
REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. MOST AREAS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN DRY  
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  
 
THE AREA REMAINS IN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO OUR EAST AND A  
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WYOMING. THEREFORE THE FLOW IS  
PRIMARILY PARALLEL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS KANSAS. SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN  
MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW REMAINS TO THE  
WEST.  
 
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE  
DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE  
SOME INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, WIND SHEAR  
WILL BE LACKING DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THIS SYSTEM THEREFORE  
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK LIGHT  
WITH MOST PLACES RECEIVING LESS THAN AN INCH.  
 
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THIS AND CONFIDENCE IN THE  
FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY IS HIGH.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016  
 
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT  
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING BY MONDAY MORNING.  
 
THE MAIN THEME OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER AS  
A NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVERHEAD. HIGHS IN THE 70S  
AND LOWS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WILL MAKE AN APPEARANCE FOR MOST  
OF THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 552 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016  
 
MOSTLY VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE  
EXCEPTION OF CONVECTION ALONG A FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA  
TOMORROW. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY AVIATION CONCERN WITH SCATTERED  
CONVECTION IN THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH TOMORROW  
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND  
VISIBILITY DROPS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING  
WITH A SWITCH TO NORTHWEST FOR JLN BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON BEHIND  
THE FRONT. THE WIND SHIFT WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE REST OF  
THE TAF SITES.  
 

 
   
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MO...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...BURCHFIELD  
LONG TERM...BURCHFIELD  
AVIATION...GRIFFIN  
 
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