670  
FXUS63 KSGF 050558  
AFDSGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
1158 PM CST SUN DEC 4 2016  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST SUN DEC 4 2016  
 
THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE WET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WILL EXIT TO  
THE EAST TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE FROM THE WEST  
TONIGHT. WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND LIGHT WIND EXPECT AREAS  
OF FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE FOG COULD BE  
LOCALLY DENSE. IN ADDITION, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR  
FREEZING SOME FREEZING FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT EARLY MONDAY  
MORNING.  
 
THE TEMPORARY BREAK FROM THE RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE  
DAY MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HOWEVER  
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY THE AFTERNOON AS A WELL DEFINED  
MID LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM TEXAS. LIGHT  
RAIN MAY DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI DURING THE  
AFTERNOON.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST SUN DEC 4 2016  
 
THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. A SHIELD OF RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO  
SOUTHERN MISSOURI MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAINFALL FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTH  
CENTRAL MISSOURI AND EASTERN OZARKS. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF  
TUESDAY MORNING AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE  
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. TUESDAY WILL BE THE LAST SEASONABLY COOL DAY  
BEFORE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON ARRIVES MID WEEK.  
 
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION  
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS FROM THE ROCKIES INTO  
THE CENTRAL U.S. GOOD SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS  
SYSTEM ALONG WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE TO GENERATE THE POTENTIAL FOR  
WINTRY PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL SEE LIGHT SNOW  
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON A  
SOLUTION.  
 
GENERAL SOLUTION IS TO BRING THE ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS THE OZARKS  
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK SURFACE LOW  
PRESSURE ACROSS ARKANSAS. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN  
OR RAIN SNOW MIX WILL DEVELOP INITIALLY FROM THE WEST DURING DAY.  
EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON  
AS COLD AIR ADVECTION INTENSIFIES. LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL INTO  
WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE ENDING FROM THE WEST.  
 
MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE CERTAINTLY POSSIBLE BUT TOO EARLY TO  
PIN POINT EXACT AMOUNTS. WE WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR POTENTIAL  
IMPACTS DURING THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COMMUTE. EVEN  
LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS CAN IMPACT TRAVEL HERE IN THE OZARKS. STAY  
TUNED TO THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.  
 
THE ARCTIC AIR WILL SETTLE INTO OZARKS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
FRIDAY WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER TEENS. WIND CHILL VALUES  
WILL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY  
NIGHTS.  
 
SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO NEXT  
WEEKEND BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. A PASSING UPPER  
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA  
LATE NEXT WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CST SUN DEC 4 2016  
 
AREAS OF FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS MORNING.  
VISIBILITIES IS THIS FOG WILL VARY AT TIMES THROUGH THE NIGHT  
BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR. FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING MONDAY  
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY.  
 

 
   
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MO...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...FOSTER  
LONG TERM...FOSTER  
AVIATION...WISE  
 
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