569  
FXUS63 KSGF 280443  
AFDSGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
1143 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 539 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016  
 
HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL  
MISSOURI AROUND THE CONVECTION THAT IS NEARY STATIONARY AND IN THE  
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF MISSOURI. SHOULD START TO SEE DIMINISHING  
TRENDS IN A FEW HOURS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016  
 
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON  
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS. MOST OF THE STORMS HAVE  
BEEN FOCUSED NEAR AREAS OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. WE EXPECT  
SCATTERED STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS COLD POOLS  
BEGIN TO SPREAD OUT. GIVEN ABNORMALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF ATMOSPHERIC  
MOISTURE AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS, THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH  
FLOODING WILL PERSIST.  
 
THE COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL THEN DECREASE FROM MID TO LATE  
EVENING. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE  
OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE  
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, WE ARE NOT SEEING THE LOW/MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC  
UPGLIDE SIGNALS THAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. LOW  
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER 70S.  
 
SCATTERED STORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS THAT SHORT WAVE  
TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST COVERAGE FOR  
STORMS WILL AGAIN BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT WARMER WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE  
UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016  
 
WE ARE CONTINUING TO SEE A SIGNAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A  
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM MAY CLIP PORTIONS OF  
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND POTENTIALLY FAR WESTERN MISSOURI.  
 
WE WILL THEN REMAIN IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THIS  
WEEKEND. MODELS INDICATE MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS DROPPING  
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP  
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS GOING BOTH DURING THE HEATING OF THE  
DAY AND ALSO DUE TO NOCTURNAL MCS ACTIVITY.  
 
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION  
FROM THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL DECREASE  
THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND.  
WE ARE LIKELY LOOKING AT HEAT INDICES GETTING BACK OVER THE  
CENTURY MARK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016  
 
A THIN BAND OF CONVECTION STARTING TO REFIRE ALONG A BOUNDARY IN  
CENTRAL MO, BUT BELIEVE THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO  
POINTS EAST OF OUR TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. MAY HAVE SOME  
EARLY MORNING LIGHT FOG TO DEAL WITH AS WE HAVE A LIGHT OR CALM  
WIND AND SOME BOUNDARY LEVEL MOISTURE. FOR NOW HAVE DROPPED TAFS  
DOWN TO 4SM FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR SUNRISE. CONVECTION MAY REFIRE  
BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES.  
SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR UNLESS A STORM CAN DEVELOP OVER THE TERMINAL  
LOCATION.  
 

 
   
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MO...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...LINDENBERG  
SHORT TERM...SCHAUMANN  
LONG TERM...SCHAUMANN  
AVIATION...LINDENBERG  
 
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