289  
FXUS63 KSGF 171736  
AFDSGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
1136 AM CST SUN DEC 17 2017  
   
..AVIATION UPDATE
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 134 AM CST SUN DEC 17 2017  
 
A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WAS MOVING INTO THE OZARKS AND IS  
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE RAIN WILL END FROM  
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOONS HOURS,  
LEAVING BEHIND CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MOST  
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE FROM 0.10" TO 0.25" OF RAIN WITH A LUCKY FEW  
SEEING A BIT MORE.  
 
THE CLOUD COVER WILL WORK TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING OUT  
OF THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS TODAY BUT WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP  
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 134 AM CST SUN DEC 17 2017  
 
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO START THE WEEK WITH  
MILD TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW, NOW  
OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA, WILL MAKES ITS WAY EAST INTO THE TEXAS  
PANHANDLE AND THEN ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS INTO TUESDAY. A SURFACE  
LOW WILL DEVELOP AND AID IN BRINING SOME MORE GULF MOISTURE  
NORTHWARD. THOUGH THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EAST, IT IS FORECAST  
TO STAY SOUTH OF THE OZARKS WITH ONLY THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT  
PRECIPITATION MAKING ITS WAY ONLY AS FAR NORTH AS THE MISSOURI  
AND ARKANSAS LINE. SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE STATE LINE MAY SEE  
SOME VERY LIGHT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. AN LOCATION NORTH WILL  
LIKELY ONLY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES.  
 
THE MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS SEMI ZONAL FLOW  
OCCURS BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL  
THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY  
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT AT SOME VERY  
LIGHT PRECIPITATION BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY WILL BRING A COLDER AND  
MUCH MORE WINTER LIKE AIR MASS TO THE OZARKS.  
 
BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY, DAY TIME TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO  
MAKE IT TO 40 DEGREES FOR ALL BUT THE EASTERN OZARKS AS THE FRONT  
MOVES SLOWLY EAST. BY THE WEEKEND AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE  
30S FOR NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS WITH SOME AREAS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL  
MISSOURI THAT MAY APPROACH NEAR THE 40 DEGREE MARK.  
 
MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY, CHRISTMAS  
EVE DAY, BUT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH THE COVERAGE,  
TIMING AND TRACK OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WEAK SYSTEM. WILL  
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TREND FOR NOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)  
 
PILOTS FLYING IN AND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AIRPORTS CAN  
EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
 
EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER WAS OBSERVED OVER THE REGION WITH CEILINGS  
UNDER A 1000 FEET. AIRPORTS ACROSS THE AREA WERE ALSO DEALING WITH  
LIGHT FOG AND DRIZZLE. VISIBILITIES WERE RANGING FROM ONE TO FIVE  
MILES.  
 
THE CLOUD COVER AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST  
THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FEED INTO THE  
REGION.  
 
WE MAY START TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER BY MID DAY  
MONDAY.  
 
SAFE TRAVELS.  
 

 
   
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MO...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...HATCH  
LONG TERM...HATCH  
AVIATION...CRAMER  
 
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