621
FXUS63 KSGF 290912
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
412 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT RISK (2 OUT OF 5) FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. PRIMARY HAZARDS ARE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
- FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TODAY THROUGH 7 AM THURSDAY
WITH A SLIGHT (2 OF 4) TO LOCALLY MODERATE (3 OF 4) RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES, WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 TO 6 INCHES.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. THEREFORE, ANY LINGERING FLOOD IMPACTS MAY CONTINUE
FOR AREAS RECEIVING MORE HEAVY RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
AS A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST CONTINUES ITS TREK EAST,
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARDS
WEST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MISSOURI FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME RIDING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW-LEVEL JET SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI ALL THE WAY TO QUEBEC, WITH THE MOISTURE PLUME FEEDING
DIRECTLY INTO THE CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE FRONT.
THOUGH OUR WEST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MISSOURI COUNTIES WILL BE
CLIPPED BY SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EXISTING LINE NEAR KANSAS CITY EARLY THIS MORNING, THE HIGHEST
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH. THE
STORMS MOVING INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI ARE QUICKLY RUNNING OUT OF
INSTABILITY TO FEED OFF OF, AND THOUGH INSTABILITY HAS ALSO
DECREASED SLOWLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FURTHER SOUTH,
THERE IS STILL 1500-200 J/KG OF MUCAPE AVAILABLE FOR THE
ANTICIPATED DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
TO WORK WITH.
EVOLUTION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WILL LOOK LIKE THIS: MORNING
CONVECTION IN CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE AS IT MOVES FURTHER EAST. THE DECAYING REMAINS OF THESE
STORMS WILL ORGANIZE WITH A STRONGER CLUSTER OF DEVELOPING
STORMS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY
THIS MORNING (6-9 AM). THE STORMS IN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA WILL
MOVE MORE DUE EAST AS THEY DEVELOP ALONG THE STILL-
SOUTHEASTWARD- PROGRESSING COLD FRONT. THIS SEGMENT OF STORMS
WILL BE WHERE OUR HIGHEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR THE DAY
COMES FROM, BOTH IN SPACE AND TIME. THE SEVERE RISK FOR STORMS
WILL EXIT OUR SOUTH- CENTRAL MISSOURI COUNTIES IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON (12-2 PM).
HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WOULD
INCLUDE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS (MORE LIKELY IN ELEVATED
STORMS THAT CAN SUSTAIN BEHIND THE FRONT) AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS 60-70 MPH ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL-LIKE
STRUCTURES WITHIN THE LINE, IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND
ASSOCIATED LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING (SEE MORE BELOW).
FRONT-PARALLEL WINDS ALOFT WILL HELP SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF A
FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS, WHICH WILL REALLY WORK OVER THE
MORNING ENVIRONMENT AND PROPEL THE COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA.
THE MIDDAY PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO CONTAIN THE
BUILDUP OF INSTABILITY BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH 00Z HREF MEAN
MUCAPE THIS AFTERNOON REMAINING LARGELY BELOW 1000 J/KG BESIDES
A SMALL CORRIDOR NEAR THE CENTRAL MO/AR BORDER. HOWEVER, MORE
RECENT RUNS OF CAMS ARE SHOWING CONSIDERABLY LESS, REMAINING
BELOW 500 J/KG. THIS WILL WORK AGAINST THE FORMATION OF
POTENTIAL POST-FRONTAL ELEVATED SUPERCELLS, KEEPING DEVELOPMENT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE DAY MORE AKIN TO TRAILING
STRATIFORM RAIN, WITH POTENTIAL BREAKS/GAPS IN COVERAGE BETWEEN
"ROUNDS" OF DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, IF AREAS OF INSTABILITY CAN
RECOVER SUFFICIENTLY BEHIND THE MCS, SOME STRONGER STORMS COULD
BE POSSIBLE. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY,
SEVERE WEATHER BECOMES LESS AND LESS LIKELY.
FLOOD WATCH GOES INTO EFFECT AT 7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 7 AM
THURSDAY. AFOREMENTIONED PARALLEL WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE
TRAINING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, WHERE RAINFALL RATES COULD
REACH 1-2"/HR DESPITE A FAST STORM MOTION AND RELATIVELY LOW
RESIDENCE TIME OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. 1 HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IS AROUND 2.5" ALONG THE I-49 CORRIDOR, DECREASING TO
1-1.5" INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN OZARKS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
MODELS CONTINUE TO COME CLOSER INTO AGREEMENT ON RAINFALL
TOTALS, THOUGH LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AXIS IS
STILL NOT WELL AGREED UPON. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE
DECREASED SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY - THURSDAY DUE TO THE DECREASE IN
MODEL SPREAD. WE NOW ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS IN
THE 1-3" RANGE, WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN THE 4-6" RANGE. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE, MUCH OF THE RAINFALL WILL COME IN SHORT BURSTS,
WHICH WILL INCREASE THE ASSOCIATED FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL,
ESPECIALLY IN FLASHY BASINS.
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY IN SEVERAL ROUNDS, WITH
BREAKS IN PRECIPITATION LIKELY BETWEEN SOME ROUNDS. DESPITE SOME
SHORT RESPITES FROM RAIN, RECOVERY TIME WILL BE MINIMAL WITH THE
REPEATED DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF STORMS INTO THE AREA FROM
OUR SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WITH THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP AXIS SHIFTING SOUTH, CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING IS DECREASING RELATIVE TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER
FLOODING REMAINS HIGH, ESPECIALLY IN THE FLOOD-PRONE AREAS OF
FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER SW MISSOURI EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN OKLAHOMA,
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEGRADE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AS IT
MOVES NE ACROSS THE OZARKS, THUS NO IMPACTS TO TAF SITES
EXPECTED BESIDES BRIEF AND ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS.
THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE TEMPERAMENTAL AROUND 11-12Z AS A COLD
FRONT BRINGS A STRONG AND ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. HEAVY RAIN WITHIN THESE STORMS
MAY LOWER VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS BRIEFLY, WITH CONDITIONS
POTENTIALLY REMAINING MVFR IN AREAS WHERE TRAILING STRATIFORM
RAINFALL CAN PERSIST AFTER THE LEADING LINE HAS PASSED THROUGH.
WINDS WILL SHIFT WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
BECOMING WESTERLY AS STORMS PASS AND NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND
THE MAIN LINE AND FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-101.
MO...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
SHORT TERM...CAMDEN
LONG TERM...CAMDEN
AVIATION...CAMDEN
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