636  
FXUS63 KSGF 280748  
AFDSGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
248 AM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 210 AM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017  
 
LOW STRATUS WAS IN PLACE OVER THE OZARKS THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER  
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE OZARKS. THE RIDGE WILL BRING A DRY DAY  
TO THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S FOR MOST  
OF THE REGION WITH NEAR 70 DEGREES IN EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN PARTS  
OF THE AREA. DESPITE THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA, CLOUD COVER WILL BE  
STUBBORN WITH ONLY A FEW PEEKS OF SUN EXPECTED.  
 
THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS  
A STRONG STORMS SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND  
TAKES A SIMILAR TRACK AS THIS PAST WEEKENDS SYSTEM. RAIN AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION  
LATE TONIGHT TO NEAR MIDNIGHT AND SPREAD FROM EAST TO WEST.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 210 AM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017  
 
THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST THROUGH  
THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THURSDAY. THE DYNAMICS OF THIS  
SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS  
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF AMPLE MOISTURE, A  
RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT WILL MAKE  
ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER  
HAS ALREADY PLACED THE OZARKS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK, THOUGH IF THE  
MODELS CONTINUE THE TRENDS OF THE PAST FEW RUNS, WE MAY SEE AN  
UPGRADE. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE LATEST TRENDS.  
 
MODELS ALSO BRING A GOOD AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION  
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL AREA WIDE THROUGH  
THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS, ON TOP OF THE  
RAIN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, MAY PRODUCE SOME FLOODING CONCERNS.  
 
THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THE  
NEXT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND  
SATURDAY BRINGING A FAIRLY NICE END TO THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ON  
FRIDAY WILL BE COOL IN RESPONSE TO THE DEPARTING LOW AND LINGERING  
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 60S FOR  
SATURDAY.  
 
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS THEN ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION  
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MORE RAIN AND TEMPERATURES  
IN THE 60S DURING THE DAY AS WE HEAD INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
THE OVERALL PATTERN AS DEPICTED BY THE MODELS LOOKS RATHER ACTIVE FOR  
THE COMING WEEK STORM SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE OZARKS EVERY TWO  
DAYS OR SO.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017  
 
PILOTS CAN EXPECT PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY  
MORNING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW CEILINGS  
WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY LOWER OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU.  
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY RISE TUESDAY BUT LIKELY REMAIN MVFR MUCH  
OF THE DAY. AREAS OF LIGHT FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.  
 

 
   
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MO...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...HATCH  
LONG TERM...HATCH  
AVIATION...FOSTER  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab MO Page
The Nexlab KS Page Main Text Page