454
FXUS63 KSGF 242301
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
601 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016
..00Z AVIATION FORECAST UPDATE
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS
REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. MOST AREAS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
THE AREA REMAINS IN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO OUR EAST AND A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WYOMING. THEREFORE THE FLOW IS
PRIMARILY PARALLEL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS KANSAS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN
MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW REMAINS TO THE
WEST.
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE
SOME INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, WIND SHEAR
WILL BE LACKING DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THIS SYSTEM THEREFORE
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK LIGHT
WITH MOST PLACES RECEIVING LESS THAN AN INCH.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THIS AND CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY IS HIGH.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING BY MONDAY MORNING.
THE MAIN THEME OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER AS
A NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVERHEAD. HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND LOWS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WILL MAKE AN APPEARANCE FOR MOST
OF THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 552 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016
MOSTLY VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF CONVECTION ALONG A FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA
TOMORROW. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY AVIATION CONCERN WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION IN THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY DROPS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING
WITH A SWITCH TO NORTHWEST FOR JLN BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON BEHIND
THE FRONT. THE WIND SHIFT WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE REST OF
THE TAF SITES.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BURCHFIELD
LONG TERM...BURCHFIELD
AVIATION...GRIFFIN
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