888
FXUS63 KSGF 042346
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
646 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
..UPDATE TO AVIATION
DISCUSSION
CURRENTLY CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...ALONG AN OUT FLOW BOUNDARY
FROM AN MCS THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS FROM THIS MCS REMAIN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL FROM THE MCS HAS
LIMITED HEATING AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE CONVECTION BEING CONFINED TO THE SOUTH WHERE
THE BETTER INSTABILITY RESIDES. INSTABILITY IS BEGINNING TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA INTO SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI.
HOWEVER WITH THE RAINFALL FROM THE MCS MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI...THIS INSTABILITY WILL MOST LIKELY NOT BE REALIZED WITH
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE CWA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.
A COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY ROUGHLY LOCATED FROM WICHITA
KANSAS TO KANSAS CITY MISSOURI...WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. A FEW HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA ARE
TRYING TO DEVELOP. IF INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
FRONT. DUE TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY CURRENTLY IN PLACE...HAVE
DOUBTS THAT ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP TO SUPPORT SEVERE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD
BE POSSIBLE. THIS CONVECTION WILL MAINLY BE DRIVEN BY
INSTABILITY...SO ONCE THE SUN BEGINS TO SET AND INSTABILITY
DECREASES ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...AND WILL STALL ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS. AT THIS TIME
FEEL THE FRONT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH INTO ARKANSAS TO KEEP ALL
CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CWA TOMORROW MORNING...HOWEVER IF THE
FRONT STALLS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE ARKANSAS MISSOURI
BORDER. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE FRONT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DRY WEATHER IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO OCCUR
DURING MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK AS A DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES BRINGING A WARMING TREND TO THE AREA THIS
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 90S WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 100 DEGREES LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY RETURN NEXT WEEKEND...AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK TO THE WEST AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WISE
AVIATION
FOR THE 0000Z KSGF/KJLN TAFS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING GRADUALLY VEERING WINDS TO THE WEST THEN NORTH
TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN THE FRONTAL ZONE AND
COULDN'T RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER AT THE TAF SITES...BUT THE OVERALL
AREAL COVERAGE IS VERY SPARSE. LOWER MVFR/IFR POST FRONTAL CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH TONIGHT AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY WITH CEILINGS ONLY GRADUALLY LIFTING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. DSA
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
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