985  
FXUS63 KSGF 010745  
AFDSGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
245 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- SOME MILD HEAT AND RAIN RELIEF TODAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE  
HEAT, HUMIDITY, AND ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES (15-30%) RETURN FOR  
THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND AND ONWARDS.  
 
- GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS SUNDAY AND MONDAY  
(30-45%) DUE TO A SIGNAL FOR A WEAK FRONT/TROUGH PASSAGE.  
DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN.  
 
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/  
 
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
 
A MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EASILY IDENTIFIABLE  
ON MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE  
PUSHING SOUTHWARD BEHIND A MID-LEVEL FRONT. SURFACE OBS SHOW  
THAT THE ATTENDING SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY DROPPED SOUTH  
OF THE AREA WITH WEAK NORTHERLY WINDS, COOLER AIR, AND A LOW  
CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING IN THE REGION. MEANWHILE, A PRONOUNCED  
MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS,  
SLOWLY TRANSLATING EASTWARD.  
 
THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT PUSHING UP THE OZARK PLATEAU  
MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING, BUT MAINLY  
LOOKING AT LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE  
SUBSIDENCE CLEARS SKIES LATER TODAY. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP  
LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.  
 
SOME MILD HEAT AND RAIN RELIEF TODAY AND WEDNESDAY:  
 
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN BEHIND THE FRONT.  
ADDITIONALLY, THE SURFACE HIGH IS PROGGED TO SETTLE RIGHT OVER  
THE OZARKS BY TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE  
MIDDLE 80S TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE DRIER AIR AND CLEAR SKIES WILL  
ALSO ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S TONIGHT  
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER, IT WILL PROVIDE  
SOME MILD RELIEF TO THE HEAT, HUMIDITY, AND RAIN EXPERIENCED  
THE PAST WEEK OR SO.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
 
HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND:  
 
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE REGION  
THURSDAY, WHICH WILL KICK THE SURFACE HIGH OUT TO THE EAST. THIS  
WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW, WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION, AND  
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING TO TAKE PLACE, SLOWLY RAISING TEMPERATURES  
AND HUMIDITY INTO THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND. HIGHS THURSDAY  
TROUGH SUNDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, WITH THE  
SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYS OCCURRING FRIDAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY) AND  
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL ALSO BE WARMER IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.  
 
FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE SLIGHTLY DECREASED FROM PREVIOUS  
FORECASTS. HOWEVER, THE PERSISTENCE OF FORECASTED >97.5TH  
PERCENTILE MOISTURE WILL STILL BRING HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE  
90-100 RANGE, POSSIBLY LOCALLY HIGHER. FOR EXAMPLE, THE NBM HAS  
BRANSON AT A 30-50% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 95 F (CURRENT FORECAST  
IS 90-92 F FOR THE BRANSON AREA) AND THE NBM MEAN HEAT INDEX IS  
AT 100 (CURRENT FORECAST IS 97-102 FOR THE BRANSON AREA).  
 
WHILE THIS IS NOT "EXCESSIVE" HEAT FOR EARLY JULY, THE ABOVE  
NORMAL HUMIDITY AND INCREASED/EXTENDED ACTIVITY OUTDOORS DURING  
THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND WILL MAKE PEOPLE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE  
TO HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS. SO, MAKE SURE TO PLAN ACCORDINGLY FOR  
ANY EXTENDED OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES, INCLUDING PACKING PLENTY OF  
WATER, HAVING A PLAN FOR FINDING COOL PLACES FOR HEAT RELIEF,  
AND KNOWING THE SIGNS OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES.  
 
ISOLATED 15-30% RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:  
 
WITH TROUGHING AND A GREATER HEIGHT GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN EDGE  
OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS, A LOW-LEVEL HEIGHT  
GRADIENT WILL SETUP ACROSS THE PLAINS. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG THIS HEIGHT GRADIENT. THE EASTERN  
EDGES OF WHICH WILL SLOWLY INCH INTO EAST KANSAS AND WEST  
MISSOURI THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING 15-30%  
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
THESE DAYS, MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 AND NORTH OF I-44.  
 
GREATEST RAIN CHANCES (30-45%) SUNDAY AND MONDAY:  
 
CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SUMMERTIME UPPER-  
LEVEL HIGH FLATTENING OUT SUNDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW MODEST FLOW  
ALOFT TO BE NEAR THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE ARE STILL  
QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCES IN ANY SHORTWAVE PROGRESSIONS THROUGH  
THE MODEST FLOW ALOFT, BUT EARLY SIGNALS POINT TO A WEAK  
FRONT/TROUGH SAGGING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY,  
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO 30-45% ACROSS THE AREA.  
 
AI GUIDANCE FROM THE GEFS AND ENS PRODUCE A 5% CHANCE FOR SEVERE  
WEATHER WITH THIS FRONT/TROUGH PASSAGE, BUT THIS COULD MAINLY BE  
CAPE-DRIVEN SINCE THE LREF OUTPUTS A >90% CHANCE FOR LESS THAN  
20 KTS SHEAR, AND ONLY A 10-30% CHANCE FOR >15 KTS OF SHEAR.  
THEREFORE, NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THESE RAIN  
CHANCES DURING THE WEEKEND, BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE  
MONITORED.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
 
SOME VERY LIGHT MIST AND DEVELOPING LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN  
OBSERVED AT SGF. THIS IS COINCIDENT WITH SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE  
SUGGESTING A 60-80% CHANCE FOR IFR TO LIFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT  
ALL TAF SITES (GREATEST CONFIDENCE AT SGF AS COOLER AIR RISES UP  
THE OZARK PLATEAU). THE MIST DEVELOPING COULD BE FROM BUILD  
DOWN OF THE LOW CLOUDS, SO HAVE PUT TEMPOS WITH LOWERED  
VISIBILITIES AS WELL.  
 
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT 3-8 KTS OUT OF THE NORTH FOR  
THE WHOLE PERIOD, WITH CLOUDS AND VISIBILITIES GRADUALLY  
CLEARING AFTER 14Z.  
 
 
   
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
KS...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...PRICE  
LONG TERM...PRICE  
AVIATION...PRICE  
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