042  
FXUS63 KSGF 282258  
AFDSGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
558 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016  
 
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS  
EVENING BEFORE DRIER AIR INFILTRATES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS  
AIR WILL MAKE FOR A COMFORTABLE NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND  
THE MISSOURI OZARKS, WITH LOWS DROPPING TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE  
EASTERN OZARKS AND THE MIDDLE 60S IN FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.  
 
A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS  
TONIGHT AND THEN DRIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA, BUT ITS REMNANTS  
WILL LIKELY AFFECT SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI ON  
WEDNESDAY. EASTWARD EXTENT OF ANY CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED BY  
WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS, SO  
WILL CONFINE PROBABILITIES TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI.  
 
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN ON THE COMFORTABLE SIDE  
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S  
ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS TO THE UPPER 80S IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST  
KANSAS.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016  
 
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH  
PRESSURE SLIPS EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS  
TO BE ALIGNED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA, WHILE A SHORTWAVE DROPS  
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FLOW. MORE CONVECTION LIKELY TO FORM WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT OVER KANSAS AND THEN SLIDE EAST INTO MISSOURI THURSDAY.  
ALTHOUGH STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF  
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.  
 
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN VERY  
ACTIVE. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AS  
TO THE FRONTAL POSITION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. GFS LIFTS IT INTO  
NORTHERN MISSOURI ON SUNDAY, WHILE ECMWF WANTS TO KEEP IT DRAPED  
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE FACT THE THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES  
MORE ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND, BELIEVE THE GFS MAYBE THE OUTLIER.  
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN GENERATING PERIODIC  
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES THAT TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA,  
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A HEAVY  
RAIN POTENTIAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ANTECEDANT SOIL  
CONDITIONS ARE SOMEWHAT DRY WHICH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE FLOODING  
POTENTIAL. NONE THE LESS THOUGH FEEL THERE IS AT LEAST A LIMITED  
RISK FOR FLOODING. MAIN MESSAGE FOR THOSE HEADING OUT TO RIVERS  
AND LAKES THIS WEEKEND IS KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST WEATHER  
FORECASTS.  
 
EARLY INDICATIONS FROM THE MODELS SUGGEST RAIN THREAT COULD END AS  
EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AGAIN, A LOT OF  
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THIS FAR OUT.  
 
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FROM FRIDAY  
THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WARMING UP BACK TO NEAR 90 BY TUESDAY AS THE  
RAIN PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA AND RIDGING BUILDS BACKS ACROSS THE  
AREA.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 553 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016  
 
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH  
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION OCCURRING ALONG THE BOUNDARY.  
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR HAS PUSHED INTO THE NORTHEAST CWA WITH THE  
ASSOCIATED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. WE ARE EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS  
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MO...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...RABERDING  
LONG TERM...RABERDING  
AVIATION...LINDENBERG  
 
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