605  
FXUS63 KSGF 221051  
AFDSGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
551 AM CDT SUN OCT 22 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT SUN OCT 22 2017  
 
LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MARCH EAST ACROSS  
THE CWA WITH INDIVIDUAL ELEMENTS TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG THE  
LINE. HAD AN UPTICK IN WINDS BETWEEN 1 AM AND 130 AM WITHIN THE  
LINE AND HAD A COUPLE OF SMALL MESOVORTS ALONG A NORTHWEST TO  
SOUTHEAST ORIENTED LINE SEGMENT. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE MONITORING  
THESE NORTHEAST SURGES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE/FEW HOURS. CONVECTION  
IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE  
EASTERN OZARKS WITH BEST INSTABILITY REMAINING FURTHER SOUTH INTO  
ARKANSAS. WOULD EXPECT OUR BEST SEVERE CHANCES WILL BE WITH  
NORTHEAST SURGES COMING OUT OF ARKANSAS THROUGH 4-5 AM. SHOWERS  
WITH MORE SCATTERED LIGHTNING STRIKES REMAIN FURTHER WEST ACROSS  
THE CWA BEHIND THE INITIAL LINE AND THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO  
TRACK EAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  
 
MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE WITH REMAINING CONVECTION FOR THE REST  
OF TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN WITH TEMPERATURES FOR THE  
UPCOMING WORK WEEK.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT SUN OCT 22 2017  
 
FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT INTO TODAY, STRONGEST CONVECTION IN  
THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD PUSH OUT OF THE CWA BY 12-13Z, BUT MAY  
STILL HAVE A WIND RISK, ESPECIALLY WITH LINE SEGMENTS SURGING TO  
THE NORTHEAST. LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE  
MORNING HOURS WITH DECREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FROM WEST  
TO EAST, EVENTUALLY ENDING BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR  
SOUTHEAST CWA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE AREA.  
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH AND  
WE SHOULD SEE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES  
WILL BE IN THE 60S TODAY AND DIP DOWN INTO THE 40S TONIGHT WITH A  
FEW UPPER 30S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT SUN OCT 22 2017  
 
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BEGIN TO DIVE SOUTEHAST OUT OF  
CANADA INTO THE PLAINS ON MONDAY AND WILL CARVE OUT ANOTHER  
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE  
AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY, BUT WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING INTO  
THE REGION TONIGHT, PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WINDY  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AS A COLD AIR MASS SURGES  
SOUTHEAST. THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WHERE  
WINDS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. TUESDAYS HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO  
GET OUT OF THE 50S WITH TUESDAY NIGHTS LOWS IN THE 30S. AT THIS  
POINT, IT LOOKS LIKE MOST TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING  
AND WINDS WILL BE STIRRING ENOUGH THAT A FROST IS NOT EXPECTED.  
 
THE MAIN TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND WE  
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES REBOUND AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  
ANOTHER STRONG PUSH OF CANADIAN AIR WILL ARRIVE WITH A FRONT ON  
FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN. CAN'T RULE OUT A  
FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN ON THE TAIL END OF THE  
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 549 AM CDT SUN OCT 22 2017  
 
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED OFF EAST OF THE TERMINALS EARLY  
THIS MORNING, WITH SHOWERS REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA. JLN APPEARS  
TO BE ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THAT SHOULD END THERE  
SHORTLY. LOW CLOUDS EXTEND A BIT FURTHER WEST OVER EASTERN KANSAS  
SO IT MAY BE A COUPLE/FEW HOURS AFTER 12Z BEFORE THE STRATUS  
CLEARS OUT AT JLN AND LATER IN THE DAY AT SGF/BBG. ONCE IT CLEARS,  
SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE  
REGION LATER IN THE DAY AND TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MO...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...LINDENBERG  
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG  
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG  
AVIATION...LINDENBERG  
 
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