013
FXUS63 KSGF 220454
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1054 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE 30S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO
AROUND 55 EXPECTED SATURDAY.
- THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TYPE, AMOUNTS OR IMPACTS IS LOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
THE UPPER TROUGH, SURFACE RIDGE, AND ASSOCIATED 850MB TEMPS OF -20C
TO -25C ARE CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA, BUT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF
THE AREA BY THIS EVENING.
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY, 850MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND -4C WITH SW
LOW LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN THE DEPARTING RIDGE AND INCOMING SURFACE
TROUGH. SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-30 MPH OUT OF THE S-SW TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THESE FACTORS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER TONIGHT
WITH LOWS OF 8-18F (COLDEST EAST) AND WIND CHILL VALUES GENERALLY -3
TO 5. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WEDNESDAY.
THE SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA.
COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MO ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY, BUT PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIP IS LESS
THAN 10%. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 20S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA, TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE IN WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE, KEEPING THINGS DRY ENOUGH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIP CONCERNS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS. SW FLOW FRIDAY
WILL BRING WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
THE WEEKEND: NO CHANGES FOR THE WEEKEND FORECAST. MODELS AGREE WELL
ON PRECIP SOUTH OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT
VARY ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT AND TIMING. THIS ALSO CAUSES SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIP TYPES, BUT PROBABILITIES FAVOR ALL OR MOSTLY
RAIN CHANCES AT THIS POINT. OVERALL PROBABILITY OF PRECIP IS LESS
THAN 20%, GREATEST OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 SATURDAY, THEN AROUND 40 ON SUNDAY.
EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES (HIGHS
IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S).
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM MANITOBA INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS PUSHES
EAST. WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TURN WESTERLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
AN ATYPICAL WARM FRONT MOVES EAST WITH THE TROUGH, PASSING
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS GUST 20-30KTS AHEAD OF
THE WARM FRONT, ESPECIALLY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON,
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10-15KTS MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR INCREASES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO
40-50KTS, DECREASING THROUGH THE MORNING.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...CAMDEN
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