518
FXUS63 KSGF 291207
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
607 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2009
..UPDATE TO AVIATION
DISCUSSION
SOUTHERLY BREEZES ALLOWING FOR MILD CONDITIONS OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
ONGOING AIR MASS WILL SOON BE REPLACED BY A COOLER NORTHERN PLAINS
AIR MASS THAT CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A MATTER
OF FACT...AT 0830Z...THE FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR PONCA CITY
OKLAHOMA...UP TO KANSAS CITY.
THE INITIAL FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THIS MORNINGS ANALYSIS WAS
DETERMINING TODAYS PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
PASSES ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS WIDESPREAD
LIGHT QPF...WHILE THE WRF HAS REALLY BACKED OFF ON AREAL COVERAGE
AND AMOUNTS OF ITS QPF. HAVE BEEN WATCHING SATELLITE AND RADAR
TRENDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS SUFFICIENT
LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN. THE NORMAN AND FORT
WORTH 00Z RAOBS SUGGEST THAT QUALITY GULF MOISTURE HAS STRUGGLED TO
ADVANCE NORTHWARD.
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHEN...IF...OR WHERE ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
MAY DEVELOP...COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES LED TO LOADING
POP GRIDS WITH A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE. ULTIMATELY WHAT
THIS MEANS...IS THAT OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CARRY 20-45 POPS
ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING OVER
FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI. IF RAIN DOES DEVELOP...THEN AMOUNTS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT.
AS THE FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE OZARKS DURING THE DAY TODAY...A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR...ALONG WITH STEADY TO COOLING
TEMPERATURES. EVENTUALLY READINGS WILL FALL ALL THE WAY INTO THE
LOWER 30S TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. ALL PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
EXITED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM BACK UP MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY BREEZES. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WHICH CAN BE VIEWED ON THE MOISTURE CHANNEL OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...WILL BEGIN TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. THIS FEATURE WILL
CREATE SOME ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH. THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS ACTIVE WEATHER IS DEPENDENT UPON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER.
THE GFS HAS MAINTAINED ITS SOLUTION BY TRACKING THE LOW ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR...WHICH WOULD KEEP THE OZARKS DRY THROUGH ALL
OF THE WORK WEEK. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF IS FURTHER NORTH WITH ITS
TRACK...POTENTIALLY CAUSING LIGHT RAIN TO IMPACT FAR SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. HAVE DECIDED TO LEAN THE FORECAST WITH THE ECWMF...AND
INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR
ON WEDNESDAY.
COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THIS UPPER LOW FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT.
CRAMER
AVIATION
FOR THE 29/1200Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...MVFR CEILINGS ARE OCCURRING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN KS TO START THE TAF PERIOD.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. PROGGED SOUNDINGS AND OBS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER
CEILINGS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FROPA AND WILL CARRY A TEMPO
GROUP FOR A FEW HOURS WITH IFR CEILINGS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE OZARKS (KSGF/KBBG). CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE LATE IN THE DAY AND
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRYER AIR MASS MOVE BACK INTO THE
AREA. DSA
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
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