865  
FXUS63 KSGF 290445  
AFDSGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
1145 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016  
 
SIMILAR TO DAYS PAST, A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE  
DEVELOPED IN A VERY WARM/MOIST AIR MASS THAT RESIDES ACROSS THE  
REGION. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS  
AND WESTERN MISSOURI. ADDITIONALLY, INSTABILITY VALUES ACROSS  
OUR SOUTHEAST (AROUND WEST PLAINS) ARE A BIT HIGHER THAN  
LOCATIONS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR SO I WOULDN'T BE  
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP IN THAT REGION.  
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS PRESENT, BULK SHEAR IS ESSENTIALLY  
NONEXISTENT IN A VERY WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT, WHICH SHOULD  
LIMIT OUR OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.  
 
SIMILAR TO EVENINGS PAST, CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO WIND  
DOWN AROUND SUNSET. IF CLOUDS DECREASE OVERNIGHT, SOME LOCATIONS  
MAY EXPERIENCE SOME LIGHT FOG ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE  
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016  
 
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM FOR THE MOST PART. FAIRLY  
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY IN THE WEEK. THERE  
WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T'STORMS DEVELOP DURING PEAK  
HEATING EACH AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE APPROACHING 90F  
WITH HEAT INDICES RAMPING UP INTO THE MIDDLE 90S, ESPECIALLY  
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.  
 
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO VEER FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO  
NORTHWESTERLY BY MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD  
FRONT ARE FORECAST TO SURGE SOUTHWARD MID TO LATE WEEK. AHEAD OF  
THIS SYSTEM, SHOWER AND T'STORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND  
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH  
THROUGH THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.  
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND, RAIN CHANCES DROP OFF AS A DRIER AND A  
BIT COOLER AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE REGION.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016  
 
PILOTS CAN EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF TYPICAL SUMMER TIME WEATHER  
AND PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH MONDAY.  
SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND INTERVALS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY  
IMPACT THE TERMINAL SITES EARLY MONDAY MORNING  
 

 
   
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MO...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...FRYE  
LONG TERM...FRYE  
AVIATION...FOSTER  
 
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