377  
FXUS63 KSGF 191043  
AFDSGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
543 AM CDT SAT AUG 19 2017  
   
..12Z AVIATION FORECAST UPDATE
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT AUG 19 2017  
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A VERY WEAK AND SUBTLE  
AREA OF CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO EXTREME  
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THERE IS A VERY WEAK BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM  
OVERNIGHT STORMS NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 60 CORRIDOR. A FEW OF THE  
MODELS (HRRR, NAM, NAMNEST) AND HAVE PICKED UP ON A TREND OF  
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION TRYING TO  
DEVELOP IN THIS ZONE LATER MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
 
CONFIDENCE IS LOW BUT WILL MENTION THIS POSSIBLE ISOLATED  
CONVECTION FOR TODAY ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN MISSOURI. GIVEN THE  
SHEAR IS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND STRONG  
INSTABILITY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL KEEP AN ISOLATED  
CHANCE OF A STRONG STORM OR TWO WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL  
FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI.  
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATION  
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 100 FOR SOME LOCATIONS.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT AUG 19 2017  
 
SOME MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPING  
IN KANSAS VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT  
THIS TIME. WILL MENTION THE CHANCE AGAIN FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY  
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY BUT MOST  
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY AND VERY WARM WITH HIGH TEMPS BACK IN THE  
LOWER 90S.  
 
SOLAR ECLIPSE OUTLOOK...  
 
THE BIG DAY FOR SKY WATCHES IS MIDDAY ON MONDAY FOR THE ECLIPSE.  
THE NAM AND GFS IS A LITTLE MORE BULLISH WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION  
AND MORE CLOUD POTENTIAL AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF CONVERGENCE  
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE ECMWF IS LESS EXCITED ABOUT QPF CLOUDS.  
WITH THAT SAID, WILL STAY CONSISTENT WITH THE FORECAST WITH A  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPOTTY SHOWERS OR STORM POPPING UP DURING THE  
AFTERNOON AND WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS OR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. IT  
DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE THE COMPLETELY CLOUDY DURING THE ECLIPSE BUT  
NOT EXACTLY CLEAR EITHER. THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR SCATTERED CLOUD  
COVER ACROSS THE OZARKS REGION WITH MORE CLOUDS POSSIBLY JUST  
NORTH OF OUR AREA.  
 
A ZONAL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY WITH A DECENT COLD FRONT  
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR MOVING ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY  
EVENING. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY AHEAD AND ALONG  
THE FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A COUPLE  
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. AVERAGE  
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE BETWEEN HALF AN INCH TO 1 INCH. EXTREMELY  
NICE WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST  
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AND  
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60. THAT IS VERY NICE  
FOR THE END OF AUGUST!  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 529 AM CDT SAT AUG 19 2017  
 
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR  
AIRPORTS ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS REGION. ISOLATED TO WIDELY  
SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP BY MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON  
AND HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR THIS POTENTIAL BETWEEN 18Z AND 23Z FOR  
SGF AND BBG. OTHERWISE FAIR SKIES WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS  
AROUND 5 TO 7 KNOTS EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MO...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...GRIFFIN  
LONG TERM...GRIFFIN  
AVIATION...GRIFFIN  
 
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