945  
FXUS63 KSGF 302317  
AFDSGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
617 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016  
 
A SHORTWAVE TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM OKLAHOMA HELPED TO GENERATE SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF AN  
ASSOCIATED CLOUD SHIELD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD  
EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED STRONG  
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM COULD OCCUR PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL  
MISSOURI WITHIN AXIS OF BETTER INSTABILITY. CAN'T RULE OUT  
ISOLATED CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE SPARSE.  
 
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY  
TUESDAY. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT COULD TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN  
OZARKS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE.  
 
AN INCREASING COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE FROM THE WEST  
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND  
ASSOCIATED FRONT COMES ACROSS THE PLAINS. AMPLE INSTABILITY ALONG  
WITH SOME INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL  
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI INTO  
EASTERN KANSAS.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016  
 
THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS THE  
SHORTWAVE TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN  
A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO ARKANSAS BY LATER WEDNESDAY AND  
THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS  
WILL BRING AN END TO THE CONVECTION FOR MOST LOCATIONS BUT CAN'T  
RULE OUT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THE ARKANSAS BORDER INTO  
THURSDAY.  
 
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS WE HEAD INTO LATE  
WEEK AND THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OUT WEST.  
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MOST AREAS FRIDAY. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR  
DISTURBANCES SLIDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WHICH  
COULD RESULT IN RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE  
CHANCES OF RAIN THIS WEEKEND REMAIN QUITE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016  
 
FOR THE MOST PART...SEEING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH  
SCATTERED CONVECTION STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL  
MISSOURI. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE  
THAT IS CURRENTLY THROUGH THE REGION.  
 
EXPECT THE RAIN TO END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE BUT A MID  
LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND  
VARIABLE BECOMING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS SUNRISE.  
 
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING  
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MO...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...FOSTER  
LONG TERM...FOSTER  
AVIATION...GAEDE  
 
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