087
FXUS63 KSGF 092330
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
530 PM CST MON NOV 9 2009
..UPDATE TO AVIATION
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
THE MAJOR WEATHER FACTOR FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. AMPLE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SIGNIFICANT MIDLEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE GULF. WITH THIS CLOUD
COVER...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN CWA TOMORROW AS
A SHORTWAVE QUICKLY TRACKS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...PUSHING IT
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. AREAS OVER THE NORTHERN CWA WILL
SEE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 60S...WITH LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH THE MOISTURE AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE
AREA...A DRIER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND RIDGING MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
KARDELL
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN US. UPPER 60S HIGHS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE MORE UNCERTAIN AS SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
COVER AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 60S. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS DUE TO CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. BOTH MODELS DEPICTED A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING
INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC AND A WEAKER
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
ECMWF FAVORED CONSOLIDATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES...RESULTING IN A
STRONG...SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS CUT OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
TROUGH...PROGRESSING THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER. WITH THE FIRST LOOK AT THE 12Z GFS...THE SOLUTION IS
MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF. GIVEN THE LACK OF RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY...LEFT OUT CHANCE POPS FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
THE SOLUTIONS DEPICT...GOING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INSTEAD.
KARDELL
AVIATION
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...EXPECT VFR CEILINGS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THOUGH A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS
EXPECTED FOR THE JOPLIN TERMINAL AS IT WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO THE SAGGING COLD FRONT NOW OVER KANSAS. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION AND LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF
THE TERMINALS AND LITTLE IMPACT IS EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF THE
FRONT.
HATCH
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
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