010  
FXUS63 KSGF 191137  
AFDSGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
537 AM CST SUN FEB 19 2017  
   
..UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SHOWERS MONDAY.
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 145 AM CST SUN FEB 19 2017  
 
AREAS OF FOG WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI AND THE EASTERN  
OZARKS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN  
EFFECT AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 60.  
 
EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL  
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MORE  
SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT A WARMER DAY.  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW OUT WEST WILL MAKES IT WAY EASTWARD.  
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THIS  
SYSTEM. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS  
AND MAKE THEIR EASTWARD INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI  
LATE TONIGHT.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 145 AM CST SUN FEB 19 2017  
 
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT WILL PUSH  
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. A BAND OF SCATTERED TO  
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE OZARKS REGION FROM WEST TO  
EAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT MODEST INSTABILITY WHICH WILL  
SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL RECEIVE  
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT PUT MUCH OF A DENT IN THE CURRENT DRY  
SPELL.  
 
RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS AND A MORE ZONAL PATTERN WILL FOLLOW THE  
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP THE WARM WEATHER  
PATTERN GOING THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGHS TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY THURSDAY WILL  
RISE INTO THE 70S.  
 
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY AND  
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO TRACK FROM EASTERN  
KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. RAINFALL AT THIS TIME IS LOOKING  
RATHER SPARSE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS QUALITY OF MOISTURE AND EXTENT  
OF A CAPPING INVERSION ARE IN PLAY.  
 
COLDER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF  
THIS SYSTEM TO END THE WEEK.  
 
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED THURSDAY AND  
FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 514 AM CST SUN FEB 19 2017  
 
PILOTS CAN EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO IMPACT THE REGION THIS MORNING  
THROUGH 15Z. MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL IMPACT AREA TERMINALS WITH THE  
POTENTIAL OF IFR MAINLY AT THE JOPLIN TERMINAL. VFR CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED FROM THE LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT  
STRATUS AND MVFR CEILINGS TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF  
AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO DEVELOP  
LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST  
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
RECORD HIGHS FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS FOLLOW:  
 
FEB 19TH FEB 20TH  
SPRINGFIELD 72/2016 77/2016  
JOPLIN 75/2011 78/2016  
WEST PLAINS 73/1981 76/2016  
VICHY-ROLLA 70/2004 AND 2016 75/2016  
 

 
   
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MOZ058-066-  
070-071-077-082-083-088-092-093-096>098-101-105-106.  
 
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-  
101.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...FOSTER  
LONG TERM...FOSTER  
AVIATION...FOSTER  
CLIMATE...FOSTER  
 
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