256  
FXUS63 KSGF 252101  
AFDSGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
401 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2018  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2018  
 
SGF 88D DETECTING INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL  
MISSOURI ALONG THE TAIL END OF LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION AIDED BY  
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. HAVE BEEN  
MONITORING MVC OVER FAR SE KANSAS THIS MORNING BUT STRUCTURE IS  
FALTERING...THUS AMOUNT OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FARTHER WEST  
IN QUESTION AS SPC MESOANALYSIS CONTINUES TO MARGINAL ML CAPES  
ALONG WITH WEAK CIN OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.  
 
MAY SEE ISOLATED DIURNAL STORMS ON SATURDAY AS WARM ADVECTION  
KICKS OFF THOUGH WIDESPREAD RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2018  
 
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BUILDING HEIGHTS WITH TEMPERATURES  
APPROACHING RECORD LEVELS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW) AS THE  
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATED UPPER RIDGE IS SANDWICHED IN  
BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND AN EARLY SEASON  
TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GULF COAST.  
 
THE WESTERN UPPER LOW WILL KICK OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS  
BY MIDWEEK BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE AND BRINGING BACK A SLIM CHANCE  
OF THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2018  
 
AIRMASS HAS STABILIZED BEHIND EARLY MORNING CONVECTION...THOUGH  
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO  
THE EARLY EVENING.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2018  
 
SATURDAY MAY 26TH SUNDAY MAY 27THMONDAY MAY 28TH  
RECORD/YEAR RECORD/YEAR RECORD/YEAR  
SPRINGFIELD 93/2012 91/2012 90/2012  
JOPLIN 94/195392/2012 92/1983  
VICHY-ROLLA 98/2012 95/201292/2012  
WEST PLAINS 95/201292/201294/2012  
 

 
   
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MO...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...GRIFFIN  
LONG TERM...GRIFFIN  
AVIATION...RUNNELS  
CLIMATE...GRIFFIN  
 
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