256
FXUS63 KSGF 252101
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
401 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2018
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2018
SGF 88D DETECTING INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI ALONG THE TAIL END OF LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION AIDED BY
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. HAVE BEEN
MONITORING MVC OVER FAR SE KANSAS THIS MORNING BUT STRUCTURE IS
FALTERING...THUS AMOUNT OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FARTHER WEST
IN QUESTION AS SPC MESOANALYSIS CONTINUES TO MARGINAL ML CAPES
ALONG WITH WEAK CIN OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MAY SEE ISOLATED DIURNAL STORMS ON SATURDAY AS WARM ADVECTION
KICKS OFF THOUGH WIDESPREAD RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2018
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BUILDING HEIGHTS WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING RECORD LEVELS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW) AS THE
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATED UPPER RIDGE IS SANDWICHED IN
BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND AN EARLY SEASON
TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GULF COAST.
THE WESTERN UPPER LOW WILL KICK OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BY MIDWEEK BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE AND BRINGING BACK A SLIM CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2018
AIRMASS HAS STABILIZED BEHIND EARLY MORNING CONVECTION...THOUGH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2018
SATURDAY MAY 26TH SUNDAY MAY 27THMONDAY MAY 28TH
RECORD/YEAR RECORD/YEAR RECORD/YEAR
SPRINGFIELD 93/2012 91/2012 90/2012
JOPLIN 94/195392/2012 92/1983
VICHY-ROLLA 98/2012 95/201292/2012
WEST PLAINS 95/201292/201294/2012
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GRIFFIN
LONG TERM...GRIFFIN
AVIATION...RUNNELS
CLIMATE...GRIFFIN
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