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NOUS43 KTOP 111548  
PNSTOP  
 
SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS  
1048 AM CDT MON SEP 11 2017  
 
TO: SUBSCRIBERS:  
-NOAA WEATHER WIRE SERVICE  
-EMERGENCY MANAGERS WEATHER INFORMATION NETWORK  
-NOAAPORT  
OTHER NWS PARTNERS, USERS AND EMPLOYEES  
 
FROM: JOHN WOYNICK  
HYDROLOGIC PROGRAM MANAGER  
NWS TOPEKA, KS  
 
SUBJECT: ADDITION OF PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS TO RIVER FORECASTS  
FOR THE MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER NEAR QUENEMO AND  
AT OTTAWA KS  
 
ON SEPTEMBER 26, 2017, THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN  
TOPEKA, KS WILL IMPLEMENT AHPS PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS FOR THE  
MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER NEAR QUENEMO AND AT OTTAWA, KS. ADVANCED  
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE OR AHPS IS THE MODERNIZATION OF  
HYDROLOGIC SERVICES TO IMPROVE FLOOD FORECASTS AND WATER RESOURCES  
INFORMATION.  
 
GRAPHICAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT  
HTTPS://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=TOP THEN CLICK ON THE  
EXPERIMENTAL LONG RANGE FLOOD RISK TAB.  
 
ADDITIONALLY, A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK TEXT PRODUCT, CATEGORY ESF, WILL  
BE ISSUED NEAR THE END OF EACH MONTH WITH PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS FOR  
THESE NEW SITES AND FOR EXISTING PROBABILISTIC FORECAST POINTS ACROSS  
NORTH CENTRAL, NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.  
 
INFORMATION PROVIDED ON THE INTERNET INCLUDES:  
 
- GRAPHS SHOWING CURRENT AND FORECAST RIVER LEVELS  
- GRAPHS SHOWING CHANCES OR PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING  
CERTAIN LEVELS, FLOW AND VOLUME  
- IMPACT INFORMATION WHICH IS A DESCRIPTION OF WHAT HAPPENS  
WHEN THE WATER REACHES CERTAIN LEVELS  
- A MAP AND SOMETIMES PHOTOGRAPHS SHOWING THE LOCATION OF  
THE GAGE.  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WELCOMES PUBLIC FEEDBACK. IF YOU HAVE  
ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ON THE CHANCE, PLEASE CONTACT:  
 
JOHN WOYNICK  
NWS FORECAST OFFICE  
1116 NE STRAIT AVE.  
TOPEKA, KS 66616  
 
PHONE: 785-232-1493  
EMAIL: JOHN.WOYNICK@NOAA.GOV  
 

 
 
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