786
FXUS61 KILN 241919
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
319 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2008
SYNOPSIS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO OUR EAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO DROP DOWN
INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...LEADING TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET. HOWEVER...WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MID/HIGH
LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF FA
TONIGHT. WILL THEREFORE GO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. BASED ON RELATIVELY LOW
DEWPOINTS...WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A BIT FOR LOWS TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SHORT WAVE
ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE KEEPING AIRMASS
ACROSS OUR AREA FAIRLY STABLE THROUGH THE DAY. THUS...DESPITE
POSSIBLE FORCING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST...IT MAY BE
TOUGH TO GET MUCH GOING. WILL THEREFORE JUST KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF OUR
FA.
COLD FRONT WILL THEN SAG DOWN INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
WITH BETTER INSTABILITY PROGGED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WE SHOULD HAVE
A BETTER SHOT AT SEEING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARD A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND ESPECIALLY THE 00Z
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE EXTENDED...WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND
OTHER MECHANISMS THROWING TOO MUCH RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY IN THE
OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTION. THUS WENT WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH THE CWA QUICKLY
SUNDAY MORNING...AND HANGS AROUND WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS BRINGS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS THROUGH
NEXT THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...COULD EASILY SEE A FEW CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES...OR THEIR
REMNANTS...PASS THROUGH THE CWA DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE
IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO INCLUDE POPS FOR THIS PATTERN SO LEFT THE
FORECAST DRY. THE EXCEPTION WAS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH
APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA TODAY AND SLIDING EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. CUMULUS
HAS DEVELOPED IN ADDITION TO CIRRUS SPILLING INTO THE REGION.
SOME MIST/FOG WL LKLY DEVELOP TNGT PARTICULARLY AT KLUK. HAVE
DROPPED VSBY TO 1 MILE AT KLUK BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR EVEN
LOWER VSBYS. REMAINDER TAF SITES MAY SEE MVFR VSBY RESTRICTION.
THIS FOG SHUD IMPROVE QUICKLY ON FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HAWBLITZEL
AVIATION...AR
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