284  
FXUS61 KILN 200241  
AFDILN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH  
1041 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE  
AIRMASS WILL PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH ON THURSDAY AS THE  
FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
EXPECTED AGAIN ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING THROUGH  
THE GREAT LAKES.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
 
 
CONVECTION DEVELOPED THIS AFTN IN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE  
AIRMASS, GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A BOUNDARY THAT BISECTED  
ILN/S FA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION HAS ALLOWED CONVECTION  
TO DEVELOP SOUTH INTO AREAS NEAR AND ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.  
 
A SFC WAVE OVER INDIANA WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE  
REGION OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WAVY FRONT  
TO LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ALSO  
SHIFTING NORTH. 00Z ILN SOUNDING SHOWED A PRECIPITABLE WATER  
VALUE OF 1.7 INCHES. GIVEN SLOW MOVEMENT AND VERY MOIST  
ENVIRONMENT, THE MAIN THREAT OVERNIGHT WILL BE LOCALIZED HEAVY  
RAIN AND FLOODING.  
 
IN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT, SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH  
STATUS DEVELOPMENT ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES  
CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO  
LOWER 70S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY,  
WHILE THE FRONT REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE REGION. SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE, AND STRONG CELLS WITH HEAVY  
DOWNPOURS WILL BE PROBABLE IN AN ATMOSPHERE STILL CONTAINING  
CLOSE TO 2 INCHES PWAT. MOIST SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE A LOWER  
THREAT FOR DOWNBURSTS. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES DECREASE WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT WHEN THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.  
 
MODEST COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID  
80S, AND LOWS IN THE 60S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
APPEARS THAT FRONT WILL BE STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN  
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BE THE  
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY.  
 
A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WILL DROP IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND  
THEN GRADUALLY OPEN UP AND LIFT INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.  
APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO  
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS THE  
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE INTO  
FRIDAY EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN COUNTIES, UNTIL THE SYSTEM  
PASSES OFF TO THE EAST.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY CROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. BUT  
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL SWING SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THIS  
MAY BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN  
COUNTIES. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES  
BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  
 
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL. LOWS WILL BE  
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BUT THEN FALL BACK  
CLOSER TO NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
THUNDERSTORMS STORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTN IN THE MODERATELY  
UNSTABLE AIRMASS, ALONG AND SOUTH OF A BOUNDARY THAT BISECTED  
ILN/S FA. SOME LINGERING/WEAKENING CONVECTION WILL REMAIN  
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. A SFC WAVE OVER INDIANA WILL TRACK SLOWLY  
EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT ALLOWING THE  
STALLED FRONT TO LIFT NORTH. SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE  
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS WHICH RECEIVED RAIN TODAY.  
EXPECT ANY VSBY RESTRICTION FROM FOG TO REMAIN IN MVFR CATEGORY  
AND LIMITED TO A FEW HOURS. DUE TO EXPECTED LIMITED DURATION AND  
IMPACT HAVE OMITTED THE MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.  
 
MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT OVER  
KCMH/KLCK CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALLOW A PERIOD OF  
MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP BUT IFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT OUT OF THE  
QUESTION.  
 
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY WHEN THE BOUNDARY  
IS FORECAST TO SAG SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER IN THE WAKE OF  
THE THE DEPARTING LOW.  
 
OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES  
THROUGH SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO  
NEAR TERM...AR  
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO  
LONG TERM...  
AVIATION...AR  
 
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