979  
FXUS61 KILN 111449  
AFDILN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH  
949 AM EST MON DEC 11 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE  
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. A SECOND  
DISTURBANCE WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL WORK THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT  
INTO THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR  
WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO THE  
MIDDLE 40S. THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE  
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TODAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
 
 
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF  
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. A TRAILING COLD  
FRONT WILL BRING SOME COOLER AIR TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME  
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THERE IS SOME UPPER SUPPORT WITH  
THIS FEATURE AS WELL.  
 
AFTER THIS INITIAL FEATURE MOVES BY THERE WILL BE A FEW HOUR  
PERIOD LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WHERE  
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MORE OF A DRIZZLE SOUNDING WITH NO ICE  
IN THE CLOUD. TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND FREEZING AND BELOW  
FREEZING IN SOME CASES DURING THIS TIME. AS SUCH, HAVE A CHANCE  
FOR DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME  
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION, AFTER  
THIS INITIAL FEATURE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP AS WELL.  
 
BY AROUND DAYBREAK A SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND  
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA. WINDS BECOME  
QUITE GUSTY WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 TO 40 MPH. THESE WIND  
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY ON  
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SOME THROUGH THE DAY. THE  
COMBINATION OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND THE WINDS WILL ALLOW  
FOR WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST OF THE  
AREA.  
 
WITH THE SECOND FEATURE SOUNDING PROFILES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH AS  
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW. IN ADDITION TO  
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY SOME SNOW SQUALLS, AN  
ENHANCED LAKE BAND ALSO LOOKS TO DEVELOP. THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL  
BE WHERE THE MOST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE LOCATED. ACROSS FAR  
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE LAKE,  
A THIN AREA OF POTENTIALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE  
POSSIBLE. FURTHER AWAY FROM THE LAKE VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE A  
HALF INCH TO UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES IN THE BAND. SOUTHWESTERN  
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE LIKELY TO SEE THE LEAST AMOUNT  
OF SNOW OF A HALF INCH OR LESS SINCE THE BETTER LAKE  
TRAJECTORIES FOR LONGER AMOUNTS OF TIME STAY FURTHER NORTHEAST  
OF THEIR LOCATION. WITH THE GUSTY WINDS DURING THIS TIME EXPECT  
VISBILITIES TO BE REDUCED WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND THE BAND OF  
SNOW THAT DOES DEVELOP.  
 
PLEASE USE CAUTION LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY  
WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM FALLING TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILL  
VALUES, FREEZING DRIZZLE CONCERNS, GUSTY WINDS, SNOWFALL, AND  
SUBSEQUENTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM SNOW.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
LAKE EFFECT BAND WILL BE WEAKENING IN THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING  
AS WINDS BACK. RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY CROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY  
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE  
APPROACHING THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
00Z MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/LOCATION OF LOW  
PRESSURE THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO  
THURSDAY. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH IS A  
REASONABLE COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF. THERE  
WILL BE SNOW AHEAD OF AND NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK. GIVEN  
UNCERTAINTIES, HAVE STILL LIMITED POPS TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY.  
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO QUICKLY MOVE OFF THURSDAY MORNING. THERE  
COULD BE AN INCH OR SO ACCUMULATION SOMEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN PART  
OF THE FORECAST AREA.  
 
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, THERE WILL BE FURTHER REENFORCEMENT OF COLD  
AIR, BUT IT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE  
DEAMPLIFYING AND ROBUST SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW  
TEMPERATURES TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE IS TIMING  
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MAY OCCUR LATE IN  
THE PERIOD. AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS, MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME  
SNOW IF IT STARTS EARLY ENOUGH, WITH THE BETTER CHANCE OF  
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHEAST AREAS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TODAY. MID CLOUDS  
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. EXPECT MOST  
PRECIPITATION TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER TONIGHT NEAR THE END OF  
THE TAF PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.  
CIGS WILL LOWER AND WINDS WILL PICK UP WITH THE FRONT. THERE  
WILL THEN BE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE  
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THEN A SECONDARY SYSTEM  
WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN TOWARDS THE  
VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS AND WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE  
EVEN MORE AND PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.  
 
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND  
THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO  
TUESDAY EVENING.  
 

 
   
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK  
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/NOVAK  
SHORT TERM...NOVAK  
LONG TERM...  
AVIATION...NOVAK  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab OH Page
The Nexlab IN Page
The Nexlab KY Page Main Text Page