192  
FXUS61 KILN 170204  
AFDILN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH  
1004 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL COMBINE WITH A SLOW  
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A  
FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WEAK  
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE  
REGION FOR SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE  
MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
SOME MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL WORK EAST TOWARD OUR AREA  
LATER TONIGHT AS A WEAK BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG SLOWLY  
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH ANOTHER,  
WEAKER LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE MID OHIO VALLEY TO  
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS GOING  
OVERNIGHT, AIDED BY PERSISTENT INSTABILITY RESIDING OVER INDIANA.  
 
AS CVG APPROACHES ITS DAILY RAINFALL RECORD FOR ANY DAY IN  
AUGUST, MINOR HIGH WATER ISSUES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE, THOUGH  
SCATTERED NATURE OF CONVECTION WILL WORK AGAINST THIS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST  
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY WORKS EAST ACROSS  
THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF  
THE BOUNDARY, PWS WILL STILL REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE SO HEAVY  
RAIN/LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY,  
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. HIGHS ON  
FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.  
 
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
PERSIST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES VERY  
SLOWLY TO OUR SOUTHEAST. WILL RANGE POPS ON SATURDAY FROM SLIGHT  
CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST TO LIKELY IN THE SOUTHEAST.  
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
THE BOUNDARY WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY,  
ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE  
OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS GOING ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHWEST,  
PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON AS WE GET SOME DAYTIME HEATING.  
OTHERWISE, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS ON  
SUNDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.  
 
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HELP  
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUILD DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH  
MID WEEK. AS IT DOES, AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT  
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS,  
THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM  
FRONT ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A TRAILING COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.  
THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THESE WILL LIKELY  
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM THE WEST  
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON  
WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS. RIDGING AND A DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD THEN BUILD  
INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
TAF SITES CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW  
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING TO THE GREAT LAKES. THOUGH  
STRONGEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EXITING WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET  
MAX, THERE IS ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND LIFT TO PRODUCE A FEW  
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TONIGHT. AS CONVECTION  
DIES OFF OVERNIGHT, CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS IFR ARE  
EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE ON FRIDAY, EVEN AS  
THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON HEATING.  
 
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY INTO  
TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...JGL  
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/JGL  
SHORT TERM...JGL  
LONG TERM...BINAU/JGL  
AVIATION...CONIGLIO  
 
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