193
FXUS61 KILN 091314
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
814 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2010
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY THROUGH OHIO TODAY.
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE LOW EXITS
OHIO TONIGHT. FLOW WILL TURN NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT...TAPPING THE
GREAT LAKES FOR ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
815 AM MESOSCALE UPDATE...
SNOW IS CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND ON THE LAST
FEW RADAR LOOPS IT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE FILLING IN A BIT ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS IS HINTING AT PERHAPS A
WEAK SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING NEAR KSDF AND THIS MAY BE ENHANCING
THE SNOW SOMEWHAT ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE
UPDATED TO BUMP UP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A TAD ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST
AND WILL NOW ALLOW FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO ACCUMULATIONS ELSEWHERE AT THIS POINT.
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN IS NOW OCCURRING FROM KLEX TO KHTS...AND AS
WARMER AIR ALOFT PUSHES NORTH AHEAD OF LOW...EXPECT THIS
MIX/CHANGEOVER TO SNEAK INTO OUR SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST TO BRING
THIS MIX A BIT FARTHER NORTH. DRY SLOT SHOULD ALLOW FOR PCPN TO
TAPER OFF FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WRAP AROUND
PCPN BEGINS TO MOVE BACK IN FROM THE WEST LATE.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
THE LOW WILL EXIT OHIO TONIGHT AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BE TAPPED. FAVORABLE FETCHES OVER DAYTON AND
CINCINNATI METRO AREAS WILL SET UP LATER OVERNIGHT...BRINGING A
CONTINUED LIGHT BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION THAT WILL
GRADUALLY BE PULLED INTO EASTERN CWA. THE BROAD UPWARD MOTION
WILL HAVE TURNED OFF AS THE LOW GETS ABSORBED INTO THE EAST COAST
SYSTEM IN THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY WEDNESDAY...LIMITING ANY SNOW
TO WHAT FALLS FROM THE LAKE BANDS THAT SET UP.
COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO DOWN TO THE SURFACE ON
WEDNESDAY...OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 30 AND 40 MPH...CAUSING
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
WITH THE FRESH SNOW COVER...ANY CLEARING ON THURSDAY WILL JUST
ALLOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO PLUMMET. HAVE GENERALLY KEPT
PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH MINOR TWEAKS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH ON THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS BACK DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. DIFFICULT TO TIME
WEAK DISTURBANCES DROPPING SOUTHEAST IN THIS PATTERN COULD BRING
SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES AT JUST ABOUT ANY POINT. APPEARS
THAT A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY. BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT IN THE
FORECAST. SO LIMITED TO LOW CHANCE POPS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MODELS CONTINUE AGREEMENT IN LIFTING SFC LOW FM TN VLY TO E OF
CVG AT 18Z. THE LOW CONTINUES NE TO NR CMH BY 00Z WED...THEN
SLOWLY WORKS INTO WRN PA BY 12Z WED.
SNOW IS AFFECTING THE TAFS DUE TO STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF
THE LOW. SMALL SUCKER HOLE HAS MOVED THRU CVG/LUK...BUT CONTINUES
TO CLOSE AS IT HEADS NE. KEPT THE HEAVIEST SNOWS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. ALSO KEPT PCPN ALL SNOW AT ALL TAFS. 1000-850
CRITICAL THICKNESS LINE PUSHES CLOSE TO I-71...BUT EVEN IF LITTLE
RA MIXES IN LATER THIS AFTN...FEEL THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN WILL
BE SN.
AS LOW PASSES N OF THE TAFS...THE SN SHOULD TAPER DOWN IF NOT
STOP. THIS SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY TRUE IN THE SRN TAFS. LIFTED THE
VSBYS TO 6 AT CVG/LUK AND ILN DURING THE LATE AFTN.
WITH PASSAGE OF LOW/CDFNT...CAA WILL KICK IN AND WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE W/SW AND BECOME GUSTY. WRAP AROUND SHSN ARE EXPECTED FOR
TNGT. BLOWING SNOW MAY REDUCE VSBYS AS WINDS GUST OVER 25KTS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY WEDNESDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR INZ050-058-
059-066-073>075-080.
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SITES
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