033  
FXUS61 KILN 261058  
AFDILN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH  
658 AM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS LOW  
PRESSURE MOVES TO LAKE MICHIGAN. AFTER A BRIEF VISIT BY HIGH  
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR EARLY MONDAY, ANOTHER LOW WILL BRING MORE  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER CAN  
BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS WILL TRAVEL TO SOUTHERN LAKE  
MICHIGAN BY THIS EVENING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF OF  
MEXICO AHEAD OF THIS SLOW MOVING, VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM IS  
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE. RADAR SHOWS THAT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED  
AND ARE AFFECTING WESTERN COUNTIES. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS WILL  
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY, SO KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS  
THAT HAVE BEEN IN THE FORECAST FOR A FEW DAYS.  
 
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH DIURNAL HEATING. MODELS CONTINUE  
TO DEPICT MARGINAL INSTABILITY, WITH CAPE VALUES REACHING ABOUT  
500 J/KG, ENOUGH TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.  
POTENT MID LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL AID IN ORGANIZATION OF  
THUNDERSTORMS, AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS CELLS COULD APPROACH  
SEVERE LIMITS, ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE BETTER  
FORCING AND INSTABILITY MAY BE MORE IN PHASE.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S WILL BE ABOUT 10  
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
 
 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO LINGER THIS EVENING, MAINLY OVER  
EASTERN LOCATIONS. SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING IN STRENGTH AND  
COVERAGE LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER  
NORTHEAST INTO AN UPPER RIDGE AND WEAKENS.  
 
FOR EARLY MONDAY, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF  
RESPITE FROM PRECIP CHANCES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY  
RETURN BY MONDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE  
THAT WILL BE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  
 
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE TREND WILL CONTINUE, WITH HIGHS IN THE  
MID 60S NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTH.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TO TRACK  
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE  
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THIS PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM  
SHIFTS EAST PCPN WILL COME TO AN END TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL  
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, WITH TUESDAY'S HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 60  
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK.  
THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES  
WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL, WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY RANGING FROM THE  
MID 50S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 60S SOUTHEAST.  
 
MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE ON HANDLING LATE WEEK WEATHER SYSTEM. GFS  
CONTINUES TO BE OUTLIER AND TAKES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW INTO  
THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEREFORE IS QUICKER WITH RETURN PCPN.  
 
THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS HAVE THE CLOSED LOW  
LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MS VLY FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO  
TREND THE FORECAST TOWARD THE ECMWF/CANADIAN.  
 
WILL BRING CHANCE POPS INTO THE WEST THURSDAY AND INCREASE THESE  
POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, AS MOISTURE AND  
INSTABILITY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR  
THUNDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES TO  
CONTINUE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S  
NORTH TO LOWER/MID 60S SOUTH FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  
 
AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION PCPN WILL END SATURDAY. HIGH  
PRESSURE TO OFFER DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT  
WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS WILL IMPACT AVIATION  
WEATHER. SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AHEAD  
OF THE LOW, AFFECTING WESTERN SITES FIRST. THE SHOWERS WILL  
TAKE SEVERAL HOURS TO PUSH ACROSS EASTERN SITES IN THIS SLOW  
MOVING SYSTEM. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF THE  
ONSET OF SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES SATURATED.  
 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT VCTS  
WITH SHOWERS WHILE DECREASING CEILINGS AND VISBILITIES TO MVFR.  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ADDED INTO TEMPO OR PREVAILING GROUPS  
WHEN TIMING AND IMPACTS BECOME EVIDENT. PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN  
LATER IN THE FORECAST AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND FILLS IN.  
 
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH, WITH SPEEDS CLOSE TO 10 KNOTS  
THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE  
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO  
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO  
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO  
LONG TERM...AR  
AVIATION...CONIGLIO  
 
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