422  
FXUS61 KILN 280808  
AFDILN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH  
408 AM EDT WED JUN 28 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
AN EXITING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS  
SET UP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, BRINGING AN INCREASE IN BOTH  
TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. A COLD  
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY, WITH  
SOME PRE-FRONTAL STORMS AFFECTING THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND IT FOR THE NEW WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION  
AND HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 80S WITH ONE MORE DAY OF  
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE NW TONIGHT FROM  
UPSTREAM CONVECTION THAT IS NOT FORECAST TO REACH ANY PART OF  
THE CWA UNTIL THURSDAY. EVEN THIS SCENARIO APPEARS LESS LIKELY  
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHWEST, GIVEN A STRONG WARMING  
TREND IN THE LOWER LEVELS INHIBITING ANY CONVECTIVE INITIATION.  
STORMS THAT SKIRT FAR NORTHERN CWA ON THURSDAY WILL BE PEELED  
OFF FROM CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS FURTHER NW.  
 
THE PROXIMITY OF STORMS NORTH OF THE AREA WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE  
OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR THROUGH THURSDAY AND  
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FRIDAY WILL SEE MORE UPPER LEVEL  
SHORTWAVES GETTING CLOSER TO THE CWA AND LESS LARGE-SCALE  
HEATING IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. CONVECTION WILL HAVE AN  
INCREASED THREAT FOR HITTING JUST ABOUT ANY OF THE CWA DURING  
THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY, IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL  
CROSS EARLY SATURDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST  
PROPENSITY OF STORMS IN THE REGION GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE  
COLD FRONT, INCREASED MOISTURE, AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH  
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING NNE AHEAD OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH.  
 
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TONIGHT WILL WARM TO AROUND 70  
THURS AND FRI NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID  
80S WILL PREVAIL FOR THURS AND FRI WITH GENERALLY CLOUDY  
CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH AND SLIGHTLY MORE SUN INFILTRATING TO  
THE SOUTH AND EAST.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE REMAINS IN QUESTION ON SATURDAY,  
BUT THE EARLIER SOLUTION IS FAVORED WITH A QUICKER ENDING OF ANY  
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, EVEN IN CURRENT FORECAST. POPS LASTING  
INTO THE AFTERNOON WAS MORE OF A HEDGE TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION,  
WITH THE L/W TROUGH STILL FOUND WEST OF THE REGION BEHIND THE  
SURFACE FRONT.  
 
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ONWARD WERE CLOSE TO CLIMO ON BOTH HIGHS  
AND LOWS, AND THE NEXT THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WAS MUDDLED BUT  
INCREASED ON TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A SYSTEM EJECTING NE  
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE MIDWEST.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
EXCEPT FOR A STRAY CIRRUS, SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR EARLY THIS  
MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION. GUIDANCE IS  
STILL SUGGESTING MVFR FOG AROUND KLUK BEFORE SUNRISE.  
 
LATER TODAY, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH, AND WILL INCREASE  
IN STRENGTH TO AROUND 8-12 KNOTS AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST.  
THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS. CLOUDS SHOULD  
BE LIMITED TO SOME CIRRUS.  
 
GUSTS SHOULD DIE OFF AROUND 00Z LEAVING LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.  
SCATTERED CIRRUS WILL BE TONIGHT.  
 
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH  
SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS  
NEAR TERM...FRANKS  
SHORT TERM...FRANKS  
LONG TERM...FRANKS  
AVIATION...SITES  
 
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