240
FXUS61 KILN 210538
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1238 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
TEMPS HAVE COOLED RAPIDLY UNDER THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY IN
THE MID 30S. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE WORKING THRU NOW WHICH WILL KEEP
TEMPS UP FOR A FEW HOURS. LOWERED MIN TEMPS OVER NIGHT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.
WITH THE COOLER TEMPS PUSHING THRU THE AFTN TD...EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP
AGAIN TONIGHT. INCREASED THE FOG COVERAGE FROM PATCHY. MIGHT NEED
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN PLACE LATER TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
SHOULD SEE LITTLE MORE THAN SOME CUMULUS ON SATURDAY...WITH WARMER
CONDITIONS. NEXT NOTABLE SHORTWAVE WILL ROLL THROUGH ON SUNDAY AND
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH AN AREA OF SURFACE TROUGHING TRYING TO
PULL UP FROM THE SOUTH. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
SLOWING THIS SYSTEM AND TAKING IT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST. THIS
CALLED FOR A LOWERING OF RAIN CHANCES FOR THE ILN CWA...AND HAVE
SHAVED BACK TO 20-30 POPS FOR BASICALLY JUST THE SOUTHWEST AND
WEST PORTIONS. VERTICAL PROFILES OF MOISTURE ARE RELATIVELY
SHALLOW...SO ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FORM IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WHICH HAD LITTLE SPREAD...BUT
WENT A LITTLE BELOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH EXPECTED CLEARING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
00Z ECMWF AND 00Z CANADIAN WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND RELIED ON
THESE SOLUTIONS WHICH ARE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z
GEFS. AFTER SYSTEM PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE ABLE REASSERT ITSELF ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF IT. STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
ON THANKSGIVING AND THERMAL PROFILES MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT ACROSS TAF SITES. VISBYS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE
AFTER SUNRISE ON SATURDAY WITH VISBYS RETURNING TO VFR BY 15Z.
SOME CU CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. THIS WILL GENERALLY
DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AND BECOME EASTERLY BY SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...NOVAK
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