503  
FXUS61 KILN 170741  
AFDILN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH  
341 AM EDT TUE OCT 17 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.  
DRY CONDITIONS AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES CAN BE  
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LEAD  
TO PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST. FROST ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR OUR  
EASTERN ZONES UNTIL 10 AM EDT/14Z. SPS FOR PATCHY FROST WEST HAS  
BEEN UPDATED.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. ONLY FEW-  
SCT CIRRUS IS EXPECTED. UNDER A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MOSTLY  
SUNNY SKIES, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY.  
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND SUNNY SKIES ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED.  
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. SOME  
PATCHY FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. HIGHS ON  
WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
A SPRAWLING AND VERY DRY AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH ALL THE  
WAY FROM THE NORTHEASTERN STATES TO TEXAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE  
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. ASIDE FROM A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT  
ATTEMPTING TO MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES / NORTHERN OHIO  
VALLEY ON THURSDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN  
THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION, WITH GRADUALLY  
INCREASING 925MB TEMPS, WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL RISE IN  
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY.  
 
BY SATURDAY, THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO GET MORE AMPLIFIED,  
AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BECOMES MORE  
PRONOUNCED. BECAUSE OF THIS, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR  
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN CURRENTLY  
FORECAST, THOUGH EVEN NOW THE GOING EXPECTATION IS FOR IT TO BE THE  
WARMEST DAY OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
ON SUNDAY, A SHARP BUT NARROW TROUGH WILL BEGIN ITS PROGRESSION  
EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, EVENTUALLY REACHING THE OHIO  
VALLEY AT SOME POINT BETWEEN THEN AND MONDAY. MODEL TIMING AGREEMENT  
IS NOT EXCELLENT WITH THIS SYSTEM, THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME  
IMPROVEMENT WITH THE 00Z RUNS AS THE ECMWF HAS COME IN WITH A FASTER  
SOLUTION -- THOUGH STILL SLOWER THAN THE 18Z/00Z GFS. POPS WILL BE  
KEPT IN THE CHANCE RANGE UNTIL THIS REALLY GETS LOCKED IN A LITTLE  
BETTER. AS OF NOW, THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR TO BE  
DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT FORECAST PERIOD. ONCE THE TROUGH AND ITS  
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH THE AREA, THERE APPEARS TO BE  
POTENTIAL FOR A LARGER UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES  
LATE ON MONDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH  
THE TAF PERIOD.  
 
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL RESULT IN RIVER  
VALLEY FOG. HAVE CONTINUED WITH IFR VISIBILITIES AT KLUK BETWEEN  
08Z AND 12Z. FOG WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z.  
 
OTHERWISE, FOR LATER TODAY, SOME FEW-SCT CIRRUS CAN BE EXPECTED  
ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN WIND FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DUE TO  
AN INCREASE IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DIURNAL MIXING.  
 
FOR TODAY, CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN. WINDS WILL  
DIMINISH AROUND BETWEEN 22Z AND 00Z. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE A  
CONCERN ONCE AGAIN AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY.  
 
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ045-046-  
054>056-063>065-073-074-080>082-088.  
KY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ100.  
IN...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN  
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN  
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN  
LONG TERM...HATZOS  
AVIATION...HICKMAN  
 
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