268
FXUS61 KILN 072037
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
337 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
SYNOPSIS
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
MODELS ARE INDICATING STRATUS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE NOT
TOTALLY BOUGHT INTO THIS AS MODELS WERE ALSO INDICATING CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH HAVE NOT MATERIALIZED. HAVE ADDED A FEW
CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN FA CLOSER TO FRONT THAT WILL BE POSITIONED
OVER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. WITH WAA WENT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON HIGH TEMPERATURES AND APPROACHING SYSTEM
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. WENT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ESPECIALLY GIVEN TODAYS HIGH TEMPS. CLOUD COVER
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.
MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE FRONT DUE TO REMAINS OF IDA. WITH THE
SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN...PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD HOWEVER CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY ALTHOUGH ITS
PROGRESS MAY BE SLOWED SOMEWHAT BY IDA...OR THE REMNANTS THEREOF...
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL ALSO ROB THE COLD
FRONT OF MUCH OF ITS MOISTURE. SO ONLY CARRIED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THEREAFTER...RIDGING AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL WORK ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK. BY SATURDAY THE UPPER FLOW WILL FLATTEN AND MOISTURE WILL
RETURN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. THIS COULD RESULT IN A
FEW SHOWERS BUT PROBABILITY IS QUITE LOW AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL TO NEAR NORMAL AFTER THE FRONT PASSES AND THEN GRADUALLY
WARM THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SKC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. LOOK FOR GUSTS TO CONTINUE
OCCLY TO 20-25KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN SUBSIDING. ALL
MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT WITH
MVFR CIGS. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS NOT HIGH GIVEN THE
NEAREST SUCH CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION AND
DISSIPATING. STILL...WITH ALL 3 MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON LOW
CLOUDS...DECIDED TO INTRODUCE MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AT
ALL SITES EXCEPT KCVG...WHICH MAY BE SOUTH OF THE THICKEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HAWBLITZEL
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