698
FGUS74 KLCH 191625
ESFLCH
LAC001-003-009-019-039-053-055-079-099-101-113-115-TXC199-241-245-
351-361-457-201625-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1125 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2008
...ADVANCED HYROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG
RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE NECHES RIVER BASIN
IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE (NWS) IN LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
HAS IMPLEMENTED THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE
(AHPS) FOR THE NECHES RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AHPS
ENABLES THE NWS TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS.
THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE
THE CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS
DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE...THE PINE ISLAND BAYOU
NEAR SOUR LAKE HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 25 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE THE SOUR LAKE FORECAST POINT WILL RISE ABOVE 16.2 FEET
DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID FOR JUNE 18, 2008 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 16, 2008
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
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NECHES RIVER
TOWN BLUFF 64 51.4 51.4 51.4 51.4 51.4 51.4 51.4 52.3 53.9
EVADALE 19 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 6.1 7.8
WEISS BLUFF 15 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 3.0 5.2
BEAUMONT 4 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.6
VILLAGE CREEK
KOUNTZE 17 2.9 2.9 3.4 4.1 4.8 5.9 6.5 9.1 11.5
PINE ISLAND BAYOU
SOUR LAKE 25 13.5 13.8 14.3 15.4 16.2 17.6 18.7 19.7 21.9
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT CURRENT RIVER FLOWS AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS. BY
PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE LEVEL OF
RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CANBE DETERMINED.
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT: HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LCH (INTERNET
ADDRESS IS ALL LOWER CASE).
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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