044
FXUS64 KJAN 260216 AAB
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
916 PM CDT THU APR 25 2024
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT THU APR 25 2024
REST OF TONIGHT...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL ACROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING, AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESIDES IN THE VICINITY OF THE
HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN THE FOCUSING MECHANISM
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, THIS
ACTIVITY HAS PREDOMINATELY STAYED NORTH AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FOR TONIGHT, QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA.
LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AS THEY FALL INTO THE
LOW AND MIDDLE 60S. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST,
WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
TOWARD DAY BREAK FRIDAY.
THE ONGOING FORECAST IS CURRENTLY IN GOOD SHAPE. I'LL MAKE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES WILL BE MADE ON THIS
EVENING'S UPDATE. /19/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT THU APR 25 2024
THE REST OF TODAY AND TOMORROW...WARM AND MOSTLY CALM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
A SYSTEM JUST NORTH OF THE CWA COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE,
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY THIS EVENING, DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AREAWIDE, WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASING OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S. PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING.
BY FRIDAY, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE CWA. A BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN STALLED
OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WHILE TO OUR SOUTHEAST, A
SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE CWA. RAIN CHANCES LOOK
TO REMAIN JUST NORTHWEST OF MS, BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHT
SHOWER IN SE AR AND NW MS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. /AJ/
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START
OFF WITH QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS AS GLOBAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT A RIDGE AXIS MAINTAINING ITS STRONG PRESENCE OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. AT THE SAME TIME, A 997MB SFC LOW IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION HEADING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
RIDGE AXIS AXIS WILL HELP DEFLECT MOST SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR US, WITH SOME RAIN CHANCES
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ACROSS PART OF THE DELTA. NO CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE TO THE LIMITED WIND GRAPHIC FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
STORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY MONDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT HELPS BUILD UP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AHEAD OF
A SURFACE COLD FRONT. FURTHERMORE, SEVERAL OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE
THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES THANKS
TO DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND THE RETREATING RIDGE AND
MOVING ALONG A HUGE FETCH OF WARM TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC
WATERS. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LOW HEADING
INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK AS THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. BY TUESDAY EVENING, A STRONGER
RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVING
US A SHORT BREAK FROM THE RAIN. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
MAKE A BRIEF RETURN TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH QUIET
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. /CR/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT THU APR 25 2024
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL AT MOST AREA TAF SITES THIS
EVENING AND INTO FRIDAY. SOME PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT NAMELY KHBG AND KPIB TOWARDS DAY
BREAK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF LOWERING OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES
TO AT LEAST MVFR STATUS BETWEEN 09-13Z. AFTER SUNRISE AND WARMING
ENSUES, BOTH WILL QUICKLY ERODE AND A RETURN TO VFR FLIGHT
CATEGORIES IS EXPECTED. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH ON
FRIDAY AND SUSTAINED BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS, WITH GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. /19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 62 85 67 85 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 61 87 65 85 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 63 86 68 86 / 0 10 0 0
HATTIESBURG 62 86 66 84 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 62 85 68 86 / 0 10 0 0
GREENVILLE 64 83 68 86 / 0 10 10 10
GREENWOOD 64 84 67 85 / 0 0 0 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
19
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