751  
FXUS64 KJAN 240201 AAA  
AFDJAN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS  
801 PM CST TUE JAN 23 2018  
   
UPDATE
 
 
UPDATED FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
EVENING UPDATE DISCUSSION:  
 
SUBTLE COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS EVENING ALONG THE EASTERN  
FRINGES OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND  
SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT WINDS TO BE LIGHTER FROM THE NORTHWEST  
THAN WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT, BUT GENERALLY THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH  
GRADIENT TO PREVENT PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING. ALSO, HIGH CLOUDS  
(OCCASIONALLY GETTING A LITTLE THICK TOWARD MORNING IN THE PINE  
BELT) MAY ALSO BE A FURTHER SLIGHT HINDRANCE TO RADIATIONAL  
COOLING. IN THE END, ADJUSTED PREVIOUS FORECAST TO MATCH CURRENT  
COOLER TEMPERATURE TRENDS BUT ONLY VERY SLIGHTLY LOWERED LOW  
TEMPERATURE EXPECTATIONS IN MOST AREAS. MANY AREAS NORTH OF THE  
HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR WILL HAVE A LIGHT FREEZE WITH CONFIDENCE OF A  
FEW HOURS OF SUB FREEZING CONDITIONS INCREASING AS YOU NORTH. /BB/  
 
PRIOR DISCUSSION BELOW:  
   
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE  
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, WITH MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY  
SKIES AS SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES  
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S. LITTLE WILL CHANGE ON  
WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE  
REGION. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY ON WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN  
THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND LIGHT WINDS./15/  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: IN THIS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THE  
PRIMARY PERIOD OF CONCERN WILL BE THE WEEKEND SYSTEM AS RAIN CHANCES  
RETURN TO THE ARKLAMISS. FOR LATE WEDNESDAY UPPER RIDGING OVER THE  
ROCKIES WILL BRING DRY NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE REGION. THE UPPER  
RIDGE AXIS WILL COME OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY, THIS  
WILL PROVIDE DRY SENSIBLE WEATHER TO THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY  
NIGHT. ON FRIDAY THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME WEST SOUTHWEST AS WE GET  
SOME RETURN GULF FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH PUSHING  
INTO THE PLAINS. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BRING IN ENOUGH MOISTURE  
FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND WEST DURING THE  
DAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS WE PUSH INTO THE WEEKEND AS  
PWATS INCREASE TO 1.3 INCHES. THE MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES ON  
THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE EURO AND CANADIAN WERE  
DEEPER WITH THIS FEATURE WHILE THE GFS HAD LESS AMPLITUDE. SO WITH  
THE STRONGER SOLUTIONS COULD GET A SURFACE LOW CLOSER TO THE  
COASTAL REGION FOR BETTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN  
COUNTIES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. WILL FOLLOW A BLEND OF THE TWO  
SOLUTIONS WITH THE RAINS MOVING OUT BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD  
FRONT EXITS THE REGION. WILL KEEP IT ALL SHOWERS FOR NOW AS  
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE QUITE LIMITED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN  
FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHES TO THE  
EAST.  
 
AS FAR TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERN THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT  
FREEZE DURING THE PERIOD WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S ON THE COOLER  
NIGHTS. DAILY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S./17/  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
00Z TAF DISCUSSION:  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT  
SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST, PICKING UP TO A RANGE  
FROM 5 TO 15 MPH BY MID MORNING TOMORROW. ONLY RELATIVELY THIN  
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASES GREATER THAN 15 KFT. /BB/  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
JACKSON 33 58 31 61 / 0 0 0 0  
MERIDIAN 32 58 30 60 / 0 0 0 0  
VICKSBURG 32 57 30 61 / 0 0 0 0  
HATTIESBURG 34 58 31 62 / 1 2 0 1  
NATCHEZ 34 58 31 61 / 0 1 0 0  
GREENVILLE 31 54 31 58 / 0 0 0 0  
GREENWOOD 30 54 30 59 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MS...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
AR...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
15/17/BB  
 
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