851
FXUS64 KJAN 071949
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
149 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
...MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE BREEZY AND ON THE WET
SIDE...
DISCUSSION
THE FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST REVOLVE AROUND THE
EVOLUTION OF IDA AND HER INTERACTION WITH A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND THE WET PERIOD OF WEATHER WHICH LOOKS TO RESULT.
BEFORE THE RAIN RETURNS...WE WILL SE ONE MORE COOL NIGHT WITH CLR/MO
CLR CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL RUN A TAD WARMER THAN THIS PAST MORNING
AS LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE INCREASING ALONG WITH A TAD MORE BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE. ADDITIONALLY...A SE RETURN FLOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AS WELL ALONG WITH SOME CIRRUS STREAMING OVER THE REGION FROM THE
GULF. SUN WILL BE NICE AS WELL...BUT WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
WHICH WILL FILTER THE SUN PRETTY GOOD COME AFTN. GUID TEMPS WERE
FOLLOWED TONIGHT AND SUN.
MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING AT ALL LEVELS OVER THE SUN NIGHT PERIOD
AND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS WELL. THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE
WX PATTERN IS QUITE COMPLICATED AS THERE WILL BE IDA...ANOTHER WEAK
SFC LOW OVER THE W GULF AND LOTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. ALL THIS WILL
BECOME INTERTWINED ON MON INTO TUE AS WE SEE A UPPER DISTURBANCE
PUSH E ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. IDA IS STEADILY GETTING
STRONGER TODAY AND BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED AND MAY REACH HURRICANE
STRENGTH BEFORE REACHING THE YUCATAN. HOWEVER...WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AS IDA INTERACTS MORE WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE I
MENTIONED. SHE WILL ACTUALLY BECOME MORE OF A HYBRID TYPE SYSTEM AS
AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION TAKES PLACE MON AFTN/NIGHT. THE OVERALL
OUTCOME ACROSS OUR AREA WILL NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN WHAT WAS
PREV EXPECTED. LOOK FOR A DEFORMATION AXIS OF DECENT RAINFALL TO
DEVELOP ACROSS S-CENTRAL LA WHICH WILL EXTEND N-EASTWARD INTO THE
S/SE PORTION OF THE CWA. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES DUE TO THE "IDA" SFC CIRCULATION AND THE
LARGE SFC HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WE SHOULD SEE SUSTAINED NE/N
WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH. RAINFALL
TYPE WILL BE OF THE LIGHT TO MODERATE VARIETY AS A SOLID SHIELD OF
STEADY RAIN DEVELOPS. SOME AREAS ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL/SE CWA WILL
SEE SOME HEAVIER RAINS BUT NOT OF THE CONVECTIVE/HIGH RATE SORT.
ACTUALLY...THE MAIN REASON TO WORD THINGS HEAVY IS BECAUSE OF THE
EVENT TOTALS. AREAS ALONG AND SE/E OF THE TRACE SHOULD SEE A SOLID
1-3 INCHES WITH AREAS SE OF A BUDE TO MERIDIAN LINE SEEING 2-4
INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS WILL ACCUMULATE OVER MULTIPLE HRS (8-16) AND
SHOULD NOT POSE MUCH OF A FLOODING RISK AS RAINFALL RATES REMAIN
SOMEWHAT TAME. PONDING ACROSS LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE COMMON DUE TO
THE STEADY NATURE OF THE RAIN AND FROM PURE ACCUMULATIONS.
THE LATEST MODEL GUID SUGGESTS THINGS WILL PROGRESS A BIT FASTER AND
IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE RAIN WILL SHIFT E OF THE CWA BY TUE
MORNING. I HAVE TRENDED THE WX TO INDICATE THIS.
AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS TIME...GUID VALUES SEEM TO BE VERY GOOD AND
I HAVE FOLLOWED. LOOK FOR ABV NORMAL READINGS MON MORNING THROUGH
TUE. I ALSO ADJ LOW TEMPS DOWNWARD TO MATCH THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE
GUID FOR WED-FRI MORNINGS. DRIER SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST CLIMO TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO CONDITIONS. /CME/
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
LATER BECOME CALM TO LIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND DAY BREAK SUNDAY MORNING AT MOST SITES...
NAMELY KMEI AND KHBG. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
14Z. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY...WHILE WINDS BECOME MORE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BETWEEN 5-10
KNOTS. /19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 47 72 57 68 / 0 0 31 85
MERIDIAN 43 74 55 70 / 0 0 19 85
VICKSBURG 49 73 57 69 / 0 0 37 75
HATTIESBURG 49 74 58 69 / 0 2 36 89
NATCHEZ 54 71 60 67 / 0 4 52 88
GREENVILLE 49 73 55 69 / 0 0 19 50
GREENWOOD 47 76 56 70 / 0 0 16 57
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
CME/19
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