088  
FXUS64 KJAN 231044  
AFDJAN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS  
544 AM CDT THU MAR 23 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
 
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
12Z TAF DISCUSSION:  
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD. THE  
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST AT 5-10KTS, BUT  
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. STRATUS WILL MOVE  
IN LATE IN THE PERIOD AFTER 06-07Z AND BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS  
TO MUCH OF THE AREA./15/  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
TODAY AND TONIGHT:  
 
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE  
TODAY WITH MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB  
INTO THE LOW/MID 80S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LITTLE WILL CHANGE  
TONIGHT WITH SEASONABLY WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID  
60S./15/  
 
FRIDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK:  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY LOOK TO BE THE START OF AN ACTIVE  
STREAK OF WEATHER THAT SHOULD AT LEAST EXTEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.  
THIS PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY RATHER POTENT ATMOSPHERIC  
DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE REGION EVERY TWO TO THREE DAYS AND  
WORKING WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A GOOD  
DEAL OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. MOST TIMES WHEN THE REGIME ACROSS THE  
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY GETS AS ACTIVE AS IS ANTICIPATED,  
FORECASTING DETAILS AND TIMING OF IMPACTS RESULTING FROM SPECIFIC  
SYSTEMS GETS INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT DUE TO INHERENT CHAOS FROM  
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE PROCESSES. THAT SAID, WE WILL DO OUR BEST.  
 
THE INITIAL SYSTEM WE WILL BE DEALING WITH STILL LOOKS TO COME  
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND THE STORM PREDICTION  
CENTER CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY  
INCREASING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT PARTLY TO MOSTLY  
CLOUDY SKIES BUT BEFORE NIGHTFALL ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE  
MAINLY LIMITED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS. THESE CLOUDS WILL HOLD HIGHS  
SHY OF 80 DEGREES IN A MAJORITY OF LOCALES. BY THE FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON POTENT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE  
ARKLATEX AS THE MEAT OF THE DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL  
SYSTEM MOVE IN. LATE FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY MORNING SATURDAY A  
SQUALL LINE, PREVIOUSLY FORMED TO OUR WEST, SHOULD BE MOVING  
THROUGH WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN SEVERE  
WEATHER THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL, BUT THERE WILL BE  
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO NOT RULE OUT A TORNADO OR TWO.  
 
DEEP MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THIS ANTICIPATED SQUALL LINE  
WILL NOT BE GREAT, ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO, AND THIS  
ENVIRONMENTAL LIMITATION SHOULD CAUSE THE SQUALL LINE TO SLOW DOWN  
OR CONSIDERABLY WEAKEN VERY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY  
MORNING. BUT THIS WILL NOT BE THE END OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT  
SINCE NO FRONT WILL BE COMING THROUGH TO CLEAN OUT INSTABILITY AND  
THE BULK OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL NOT PASS THROUGH UNTIL SATURDAY  
NIGHT. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND  
STORMS (AND PERHAPS ANOTHER, DIFFERENT SQUALL LINE) WILL DEVELOP  
IN THE VICINITY OF OUR REGION BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON  
SATURDAY AND REINVIGORATE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, ESPECIALLY  
FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS WILL BETTER  
HANDLE THE DETAILS OF WHAT WILL UNFOLD, BUT THE PERIOD OF INTEREST  
WILL NOT COME INTO THE TIME DOMAIN OF MOST OF THOSE MODELS UNTIL  
LATER TODAY.  
 
SO BY SATURDAY NIGHT A WEAK BOUNDARY DRAGGING IN THE WAKE OF THE  
FRONTAL SYSTEM EXITING TO OUR NORTHEAST COULD STILL BE BRINGING AT  
LEAST EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THUNDERSTORMS IN THE  
EVENING. EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO BASICALLY STALL NEAR SOUTHEAST MS  
SATURDAY NIGHT AND START RETURNING BACK NORTH ON SUNDAY. A GOOD  
DEAL OF CLOUDS SHOULD BE FOUND AROUND THIS BOUNDARY OVER THAT TIME  
FRAME ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RATHER INSIGNIFICANT  
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.  
 
MODEL CONSENSUS IS INCREASING WITH REGARD TO THE NEXT DISTURBANCE  
COMING DOWN THE PIKE ON MONDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD INTERACT  
WITH WARMTH AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND THE LINGERING BAROCLINIC  
ZONE TO BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS (ESPECIALLY  
OVER NORTHERN ZONES). THROUGH COLLABORATION WITH THE STORM  
PREDICTION CENTER IT WAS DECIDED TO INTRODUCE ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK  
OF SEVERE STORMS FOR THESE AREAS AS THE COMBINATION OF MODEST WIND  
SHEAR AND AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY COULD YIELD POTENT  
THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION. AT THIS POINT THE MAIN RISKS AGAIN LOOK  
TO BE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS.  
 
MY INITIAL OFFERED CAVEAT IMPLIES HEAVILY FROM THIS POINT FORWARD,  
BUT THE GIST OF MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY  
COULD BE RELATIVELY DRY (ALTHOUGH THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY OF THE  
CHAOTIC FORECAST REQUIRES HOLDING ON TO LOWER END RAIN CHANCES).  
THEREAFTER, ANOTHER POTENT DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE BEFORE THE WORK  
WEEK IS OUT, POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS NEXT THURSDAY. AS WILL BE THE  
CASE WITH THE PREVIOUS TWO DISTURBANCES, THIS ONE MAY AGAIN HOLD  
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER, AT THIS POINT WE WILL  
REFRAIN FROM YET MENTIONING ANYTHING REGARDING THIS SYSTEM IN THE  
HWO. /BB/  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
JACKSON 85 62 78 64 / 3 5 20 69  
MERIDIAN 81 60 77 61 / 6 5 10 33  
VICKSBURG 83 63 80 64 / 1 5 14 84  
HATTIESBURG 84 63 77 63 / 6 5 22 43  
NATCHEZ 83 64 80 66 / 1 5 14 77  
GREENVILLE 79 62 79 63 / 2 5 15 89  
GREENWOOD 81 62 77 63 / 2 5 14 83  
 

 
   
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MS...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
AR...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
15  
 
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