774  
FNUS71 KALY 211414  
FWSALY  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR FRENCH HOLLOW PILE BURN...USFS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
914 AM EST TUE NOV 21 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EST ON NOVEMBER 21.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL  
WEATHER SERVICE.  
 
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT ALB.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV, IF YOU  
HAVE QUESTIONS OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND  
30 MPH AT TIMES TODAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES  
IN THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
FAIR AND MILD TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT  
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING  
SOME SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. A MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS  
WILL BE USHERED BACK IN WITH MAINLY FAIR WEATHER THEN EXPECTED  
THROUGH FRIDAY.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
BEGIN/END OF PCPN...NONE.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50.  
MIN HUMIDITY........34 PERCENT.  
MIN HUMIDITY........34 PERCENT.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS 12 TO 15 MPH.  
SURFACE WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 12 TO 15 MPH.  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTH WINDS 12 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20  
MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......900-1900 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 19 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.00 INCHES.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF RAIN  
OR SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
CWR.................20 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.  
BEGIN/END OF PCPN...PCPN CHANCES BEGIN AROUND 5 AM.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 35.  
MAX HUMIDITY........96 PERCENT.  
MAX HUMIDITY........96 PERCENT.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH.  
SURFACE WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH.  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......600-700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 14 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.02 INCHES.  
   
WEDNESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT), THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF RAIN  
OR SNOW SHOWERS.  
CWR.................40 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.  
BEGIN/END OF PCPN...PCPN END TIME AROUND 2 PM.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 37.  
MIN HUMIDITY........66 PERCENT.  
MIN HUMIDITY........66 PERCENT.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....WEST WINDS 8 TO 14 MPH.  
SURFACE WINDS.......WEST WINDS 8 TO 14 MPH.  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......WEST WINDS 8 TO 14 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN  
THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-2000 FT AGL, INCREASING TO 2600-3800 FT AGL  
IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 17 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.09 INCHES.  
 

 
FORECASTER...JPV  
REQUESTED BY...KEITH SARGENT  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1719065.0/ALY  
.EMAIL NECC.DISPATCH@GMAIL.COM  
 
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