511  
FNUS71 KALY 101141  
FWSALY  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR REGION G RX FIRE...NYS DEC / APB  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
741 AM EDT MON JUL 10 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 EDT ON JULY 10.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
 
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT ALB.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
A SEASONABLY WARM DAY TODAY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.  
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD GUST NEAR 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
RH VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT GENERALLY IN THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT  
RANGE.  
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO  
TUESDAY, BUT COVERAGE IS STILL IN QUESTION. IT WILL BECOME MORE  
HUMID WITH RH VALUES ONLY FALLING INTO THE 60 TO 80 PERCENT  
RANGE.  
 
DRIER ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. RH VALUES  
GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE 45 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE, WITH  
NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10 MPH OR LESS.  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).  
CWR.................MISSING.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
BEGIN/END OF PCPN...  
TEMPERATURE.........68 AT IGNITION...MAX 84.  
RH..................70 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 40 PERCENT.  
RH..................70 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 40 PERCENT.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 14 MPH.  
SURFACE WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 14 MPH.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......WINDS SOUTH AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE  
SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 14 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 100-500 FT  
AGL, INCREASING TO 8300-8600 FT AGL IN THE LATE  
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN DECREASING TO  
6500 FT AGL LATE.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 9 MPH, BECOMING SOUTHWEST 14 TO 17  
MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.00 INCHES.  
 
TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........33 37 42 46 47 46 45 44 45 46  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............M M M M M M M M M M  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10  
TEMP............68 72 76 79 82 83 84 84 84 83  
RH..............70 61 54 49 43 41 40 41 43 47  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S SW SW SW SW SW SW S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 8  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 15 15 15 15 20 20 20  
EYE LVL WND DIR.S S SW SW SW SW SW SW S S  
EYE LVL WND SPD.4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6  
EYE LVL WND GST.10 10 10 15 15 15 15 20 20 20  
SURFACE WND DIR.S S SW SW SW SW SW SW S S  
SURFACE WND SPD.6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 10  
SURFACE WND GST.10 10 10 15 15 15 15 20 20 20  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.5 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.6 8.6 8.6 6.5 6.5  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S W W W SW SW SW SW SW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.9 9 17 17 17 16 16 16 14 14  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT), THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE  
OF SHOWERS IN THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY  
MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER  
MIDNIGHT, THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS LATE.  
CWR.................MISSING.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.  
BEGIN/END OF PCPN...  
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 70.  
RH..................MAX 87 PERCENT.  
RH..................MAX 87 PERCENT.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS 9 TO 14 MPH.  
SURFACE WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 9 TO 14 MPH.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTH WINDS 9 TO 14 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH  
EARLY IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......6500 FT AGL, DECREASING TO 600-1200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 14 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.08 INCHES.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........49 52 55 57 59 62 66 71 76 79 81 81  
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........ SCH CHC CHC CHC  
CWR.............M M M M M M M M M M M M  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 20 20 20 20 20 30 30 40  
TEMP............82 80 78 76 75 73 72 71 70 70 70 70  
RH..............51 56 62 66 69 73 76 81 84 84 87 87  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 15 15 10 10 10 10 10 15 15 15  
EYE LVL WND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S  
EYE LVL WND SPD.5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4  
EYE LVL WND GST.20 20 15 15 10 10 10 10 10 15 15 15  
SURFACE WND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S  
SURFACE WND SPD.9 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6  
SURFACE WND GST.20 20 15 15 10 10 10 10 10 15 15 15  
MIX HGT (KFT)...6.5 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW S S S S S S S S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.14 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 12  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 3  
   
TUESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
CWR.................MISSING.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.  
BEGIN/END OF PCPN...  
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 83.  
RH..................MIN 63 PERCENT.  
RH..................MIN 63 PERCENT.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 12 MPH.  
SURFACE WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 12 MPH.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 12 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......700-2600 FT AGL, INCREASING TO 4900-5200 FT AGL  
IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 15 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.26 INCHES.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........79 77 76 77 79 79 77 75 74 76 80 82  
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC  
CWR.............M M M M M M M M M M M M  
CHC OF PCPN (%).40 40 40 40 40 30 40 50 50 50 50 50  
TEMP............71 71 71 73 75 78 80 82 83 83 83 82  
RH..............84 87 87 81 79 71 67 65 63 63 63 65  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW  
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15  
EYE LVL WND DIR.S S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW  
EYE LVL WND SPD.4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 4  
EYE LVL WND GST.15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15  
SURFACE WND DIR.S S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW  
SURFACE WND SPD.6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 7 6  
SURFACE WND GST.15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.7 1.0 1.0 1.0 2.6 2.6 2.6 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.2 5.2  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.12 12 12 12 15 15 15 15 15 15 13 13  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
 

 
FORECASTER...DIRIENZO  
REQUESTED BY...TYLER BRIGGS  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1712476.0/ALY  
.EMAIL TBRIGGS@ALBANYPINEBUSH.ORG  
 
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