028
FXUS61 KALY 080134
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
834 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING MILDER AIR OUR WAY BY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
AS OF 830 PM EST...CLOUDS ARE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING/INCREASING ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS...AND HEADING S/E. THE RUC13 850 RH SEEMS TO DEPICT
THIS BEST...ALTHOUGH EVEN THIS APPEARS A TAD SLOW. THESE CLOUDS
APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING/INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF WARM
FRONT...APPROACHING FROM THE W. WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN PREVALENT
OVERNIGHT FOR AREAS N/W OF ALBANY...WITH JUST OCCASIONAL BREAKS
POSSIBLE. FURTHER S AND E...OCCASIONAL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP...BUT
MORE BREAKS WILL ALSO OCCUR. THUS...HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES IN MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...WITH GREATEST ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR
N/W AREAS...AND WITHIN THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHERE WIND
WILL ALSO REMAIN JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST TEMPS FROM FALLING
MUCH BELOW 40.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
UPPER SYSTEM TRACKING JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AS UPPER AND LOW LEVEL RIDGING REINFORCES
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM...AND A LIGHT SOUTH WIND...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND ANY VALLEYS THAT CHANNEL WINDS. THIS MAKES FOR
SOME STRANGE ISSUES AS FAR AS POTENTIAL LOCAL EFFECTS AND LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES
IN LOW TEMPERATURES IN SHORT DISTANCES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
EVEN MORE SO TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT THAT WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE
NEXT SECTION.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A BROKEN CLOUD DECK LATER TONIGHT AND AROUND
SUNRISE...WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE FALLS IN SOME AREAS
OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 30S...AROUND 40 IN WARMER
SPOTS...AROUND 30 IN COLDER SPOTS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/
WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY MONDAY. THE RELATIVE
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN LIMITED CLOUD COVER...SO EVEN
WITH THE RAPIDLY LOWERING SUN ANGLE...SOME MIXING SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND 60 TO LOWER 60S TOMORROW...AND LOWER
TO UPPER 60S MONDAY.
AS FAR AS LOW TEMPERATURES...SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL DEPEND AGAIN
ON WHAT LOCATIONS EXPERIENCE A LIGHT SOUTH WIND...AND WHAT
LOCATIONS GO CALM. THERE COULD BE 10+ DEGREE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
LOCATIONS THAT SEE CALM WINDS AND THOSE THAT SEE SOUTH WINDS AT
2-5 MPH...SO AROUND FREEZING IN AREAS THAT GO CALM...AND LOW TO
MID 40S IN AREAS THAT SEE LIGHT SOUTH WINDS MOST OF THE NIGHT.
THERE COULD BE SOME THICKENING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
THAT MAY PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALL AS MUCH AS THEY COULD.
MONDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS IN THE 40S FOR LOWS.
QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AS TO THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH FASTER
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SLOWER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONTINUED PREFRONTAL WARM
SECTOR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...SUGGESTING
GRADUAL WIND SHIFT AND SLOWER COOLING...BUT STILL...WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...HIGHS AROUND 60...50S IN
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.
MODELS NOT RESOLVING UPSTREAM FEATURES SUCH AS PACIFIC JET
ENERGY...AND IDA APPROACHING GULF OF MEXICO...SO ANY ISSUES FROM
TUESDAY AND BEYOND WILL NOT BE RESOLVED UNTIL FEATURES ENTER
DENSER DATA NETWORK. MORE INFO IN LONG RANGE SECTION.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
MOST OF THE ATTENTION WILL BE ON THE TROPICS WITH IDA WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO
SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS WAS DISCOUNTED DURING THE LONG TERM SINCE ITS RELATED ENSEMBLE
DATA DOES NOT SUPPORT ITS OPERATIONAL MEMBERS INCLUDING
INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET. THE
REMNANTS OF IDA SHOULD REMAIN FAR REMOVED FROM THE LOCAL AREA AND
WILL FOLLOW A DRIER SOLUTION HEADING INTO THIS LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.
WITH THAT SAID...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER PLAINS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC BY MID WEEK AND A NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FROPA.
TRENDS AND ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGEST SUBTROPICAL UPPER HIGH/RIDGE
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY WEEKS END WHICH WILL AID IN THE
WARM TRANSPORT FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION MAY ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH
MONDAY...AS IT GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST OFF THE MID MID ATLANTIC COAST.
KGFL...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z/MON. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME IFR VSBYS AROUND SUNRISE...DEPENDING ON IF VFR
LEVEL CLOUDS CAN CLEAR OUT. WINDS AT KGFL SHOULD REMAIN FROM A LIGHT
SE TO S DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AT LESS THAN 8 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME SW
TO W SUN MORNING AT 5-10 KT...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING...AND
PERSIST UNTIL EARLY SUN MORNING AS SFC WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...WHILE
WINDS AT AND ABOVE 2000 FT AGL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO 35-40 KT.
KALB...EXPECT VFR THROUGH 00Z/MON. WINDS AT KALB WILL REMAIN FROM
THE S AT 8-12 KT THIS EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN
8 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST SUN MORNING AT 8-12 KT...DIMINISHING AND BACKING INTO THE
SW TO S BY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THIS
EVENING...PERSISTING UNTIL EARLY SUN MORNING AS SFC WINDS DECREASE
TO LESS THAN 8 KT...WHILE WINDS AT AND ABOVE 2000 FT AGL INCREASE
FROM THE SW TO 35-40 KT.
AT KPOU...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z/MON...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC FOR BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE.
WINDS AT KPOU WILL REMAIN FROM THE S AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 5 KT
OVERNIGHT...THEN WIL BECOME W TO NW AT 8-12 KT SUN MORNING. WINDS
WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY SUN AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING...AND PERSIST UNTIL EARLY SUN
MORNING AS SFC WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...WHILE WINDS AT AND ABOVE 2000 FT
AGL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO 35-40 KT.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NGT-MON NGT...VFR...NO WX.
TUE-TUE NGT...-SHRA...CHC MVFR CIG/VSBY.
WED-THU...VFR...NO WX.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...KL/ELH
HYDROLOGY...BGM/NAS
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