209  
FXUS61 KALY 220947  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
447 AM EST THU FEB 22 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
THE COMBINATION OF SNOWMELT AND RECENT RAINFALL MAY LEAD  
TO SOME MINOR FLOODING ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND NORTHERN  
PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT TODAY. COLDER AND MORE SEASONABLE  
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS WELL ALONG WITH SOME MIXED  
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. MORE  
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND DURING THE SECOND HALF OF  
THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY  
FOR THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND THE HELDERBERGS.  
 
REGIONAL RADAR REVEALS INCREASING COVERAGE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY  
ACROSS PA AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW YORK. PER THE HIRES RADAR  
REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS FROM THE NAM3KM AND HRRR/X SUGGEST THIS  
IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE AND  
OVERALL LIFT FOR THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE CATSKILLS,  
SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF NW CT TOWARD SUNRISE WITH A  
RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE INITIALLY (COULD BE A PERIOD OF SLEET).  
 
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED  
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TODAY. THERMAL PROFILES IN THE LOWER  
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CRITICAL FOR PRECIPITATION  
TYPE. EXPECTING A MIXTURE OF SNOW, SLEET AND SOME FREEZING RAIN.  
IT MAY BE STILL WARM ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN IN THE MID HUDSON  
VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. THE FREEZING RAIN WILL BE MAINLY  
CONFINED TO THE ADVISORY AREA AND MAINLY OCCURRING DURING THE  
MORNING HOURS. DURING THE AFTERNOON THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION  
TYPE WILL BE SNOW AND SOME SLEET. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY  
ABOVE THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S  
TO UPPER 30S. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL SLIGHTLY DURING THE  
AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES WITH  
UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE IN THE ADVISORY AREA.  
 
TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL EXPAND  
SOUTHWARD SOMEWHAT, RESULTING IN THE PRECIPITATION BEING SHUNTED  
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUD COVER MAY CLEAR SOMEWHAT FOR  
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90, BUT WILL LIKELY INCREASE AGAIN  
TOWARD SUNRISE FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SOME SPOTTY VERY  
LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CATSKILLS AND MID-  
HUDSON VALLEY AFTER 06Z AS A RENEWED BOUT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT  
BEGINS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
A ROUND OF WINTRY MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY  
EVENING. THIS WOULD INCLUDE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET AND  
FREEZING RAIN.  
 
FRIDAY, THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER NOVA SCOTIA WHILE THE LOW  
LEVEL JET MAGNITUDES INCREASE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RENEWED ROUND  
OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT, WITH PRECIPITATION  
BECOMING LIKELY BY THE AFTERNOON. WE'LL START OUT THE DAY COLD  
WITH EARLY MORNING TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S, SO SOME MIXED  
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET. THE HIGH IS NOT  
IN AN IDEAL LOCATION TO KEEP COLD AIR LOCKED IN PLACE, AT LEAST  
IN THE NORTH/SOUTH VALLEYS BELOW 1000 FEET, SO CURRENTLY DO NOT  
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF WINTRY ACCUMULATION THERE, AS TEMPS  
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN AS  
THE P-TYPE. OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS AND  
ADIRONDACKS, THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT MORE IN THE WAY OF A  
MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE  
DAY. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE A  
FAIRLY DEEP SNOW PACK STILL EXISTS, AND IT HAS PROVEN VERY  
DIFFICULT TO SCOUR OUT THE COLD AIR IN SIMILAR CIRCUMSTANCES.  
STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO HOW MUCH  
PRECIPITATION FALLS AS SLEET VS FREEZING RAIN, BUT ADDITIONAL  
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES ARE A GOOD POSSIBILITY FOR THE HIGHER  
TERRAIN ABOVE 1000 FEET. AS THE TEMPS ALOFT INCREASE FROM WEST  
TO EAST, THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND MAY HOLD ONTO  
THE COLDER TEMPS LONGER, SO PERHAPS MORE SLEET OR EVEN LIGHT  
SNOW COMPARED WITH FREEZING RAIN THERE.  
 
LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEER FRIDAY NIGHT SPELLING A GRADUAL END TO THE  
ISENTROPIC LIFT, WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING IN LATE. A GOOD  
DEAL OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE AROUND, SO COULD SEE A  
CONTINUATION OF LIGHT SPOTTY SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY  
AND FRIDAY NIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BUDGE MUCH, REMAINING MAINLY IN  
THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S. TEMPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN  
NEW ENGLAND ABOVE 1500 FEET WILL LIKELY DROP BACK BELOW FREEZING AT  
NIGHT, SO COULD SEE SOME LINGERING ICY ISSUES THERE.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY  
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH ONLY ONE MAIN THREAT FOR WINTRY  
PRECIPITATION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  
 
AT UPPER LEVELS, A RIDGE WILL HOLD STEADY OVER FLORIDA AND THE  
EASTERN GULF THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL  
EVENTUALLY DAMPEN AND FLATTEN OUT BY MID-WEEK, ALLOWING FOR A MORE  
ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ON SATURDAY WITH  
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES. BY SATURDAY NIGHT, A LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE STRENGTHENING AND LIFTING ACROSS THE WESTERN  
GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC. WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE  
SYSTEM SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO OUR CWA FROM  
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AT THE  
ONSET, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW  
MIX IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. BUT BY SUNDAY MORNING, DEW POINTS ARE STILL  
BELOW FREEZING SO WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND POTENTIAL COLD AIR  
DAMMING, PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.  
A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ATTEMPT TO LIFT  
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS WELL BUT THE COLD AIR MAY BE  
STUBBORN TO MIX OUT NORTH OF ALBANY. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR THE WINTRY  
MIX TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.  
 
BY 18Z SUNDAY, THE 850MB JET STRENGTHS TO 40-50KTS WHICH MAY HELP  
WARM AIR MIX INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS THE WARM SECTOR MOVES CLOSER  
TO OUR CWA. THUS, THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIP TYPE  
CHANGING TO RAIN AFTER 18Z SUNDAY BUT STILL THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE  
FORECAST AS COLD AIR IS OFTEN STUBBORN TO SCOUR OUT. THE COLD FRONT  
SHOULD FINALLY MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, ENDING THE PRECIPITATION  
FROM WEST TO EAST.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE  
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH WOULD LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS MONDAY  
WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER  
40S. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS  
SHOULD THEN ARRIVE BY 00Z TUESDAY WITH COLDER AIR IN THE 20S  
FOLLOWING FOR MONDAY NIGHT. DESPITE NORTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP FOR  
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD, TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN  
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S. RIDGING ALSO  
SETS IN MID-WEEK WHICH SHOULD KEEP EASTERN NY/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND  
MAINLY DRY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT  
UNTIL AROUND 10Z-15Z WHEN SOME INTERMITTENT MIXED PRECIPITATION  
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AT ALL TAF SITES. THERE COULD BE A MIX OF  
SNOW, SLEET AND RAIN.  
 
AFTER ABOUT 15Z, MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME  
STEADIER AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER TO THE  
MVFR/IFR LEVELS. KGFL MAY HAVE VFR BORDERING ON MVFR SINCE MUCH  
OF THE PRECIPITATION COULD TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF KGFL. BY  
THIS AFTERNOON, PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE SNOW AT KGFL AND  
KALB BUT MAY REMAIN A MIX AT KPSF AND KPOU. PRECIPITATION  
SHOULD TAPER OFF BY 00Z/FRI WITH CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY  
IMPROVING TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, ESPECIALLY AT KALB  
AND KGFL.  
 
NORTH WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF  
PERIOD.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA...RA...SN.  
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN.  
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN...SLEET.  
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.  
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.  
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.  
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS WITH THE ICE JAM ALONG THE MOHAWK IN  
SCHENECTADY COUNTY AND HEADING INTO NORTHEAST ALBANY COUNTY. THE  
ICE JAM BECAME DISLODGED EARLIER THIS MORNING FROM LOCK 7, LOCK  
8, STOCKADE AND DOWNSTREAM TO FREEMANS BRIDGE THEN THROUGH THE  
REXFORD BRIDGE AND IMPACTING CRESCENT DAM, COHOES, AND  
DEPOSITING INTO THE HUDSON NEAR TROY. ICE AND RESULTING WATER  
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE MOHAWK AS PLEASE REFER TO THE FLOOD  
WARNINGS FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. WATER LEVELS IN THESE AREAS  
WILL CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE TODAY. ELSEWHERE, WATER LEVELS HAVE  
REMAINED RATHER STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING AT THIS TIME.  
 
SNOW AND WINTRY MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH A  
QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF QPF EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF  
I-90. MORE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE  
WEEKEND. CURRENT FORECASTS CALL FOR AROUND A QUARTER TO THREE  
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME,  
HIGHEST SOUTH OF I-90. THIS MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL RIVER  
RISES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL DURING  
THIS TIME, BUT NOT AS WARM AS WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST TWO DAYS.  
 
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING  
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE  
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS  
ON OUR WEBSITE.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS WERE BROKEN IN MANY AREAS ON  
WEDNESDAY.  
 
KALB REACHED 73 DEGREES AT 244 PM EST  
KGFL REACHED 66 DEGREES AT 243 PM EST  
KPOU REACHED 76 DEGREES AT 415 PM EST WHICH BROKE THE ALL-TIME  
FEBRUARY HIGH TEMPERATURE.  
 
WED FEB 21ST PREVIOUS RECORD HIGHS:  
KALB 65F SET IN 1981  
KGFL 65F SET IN 1981  
KPOU 67F SET IN 1953  
 
ALL-TIME FEBRUARY HIGHS:  
KALB 74F SET FEB. 24, 2017  
KGFL 70F SET FEB. 25, 2017  
KPOU 73F SET FEB. 24, 2017  
 
RECORDS FOR KPOU DATE BACK TO 1949... HOWEVER...DATA IS MISSING  
FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ047-  
051-058-063.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...JVM  
NEAR TERM...BGM  
SHORT TERM...BGM/THOMPSON  
LONG TERM...JVM/SPECIALE  
AVIATION...NAS/JVM  
HYDROLOGY...BGM/THOMPSON/JPV/JVM  
CLIMATE...  
 
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