801  
FXUS61 KALY 200732  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
332 AM EDT FRI APR 20 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE  
TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH  
TODAY...BUT A PATTERN CHANGE WILL TAKE PLACE AS HIGH PRESSURE  
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AND PERSIST RIGHT THROUGH EARLY  
NEXT WEEK. EXPECT DRY WEATHER SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY WITH  
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
FOR TODAY EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW  
SHOWERS DUE TO CYCLONIC FLOW, LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE FLOW TO  
PREVAIL. SOME OF THE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING HAVE A  
CHAMPLAIN EFFECT OCCURRING AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO SPILL  
SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE CHAMPLAIN. THERE WILL ALSO BE VARIABLE  
CLOUDS TODAY WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN ACROSS THE VALLEYS. HIGHS  
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S AND 40S.  
 
FOR TONIGHT ANY LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN  
END THIS EVENING WITH GENERALLY PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES  
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A LARGE RIDGE  
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST US FROM THE GREAT  
LAKES REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE AS WELL. EXPECT  
HIGHS ON SATURDAY TO BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 50S WITH LOWS  
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S AND HIGHS ON  
SUNDAY IN THE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT  
THROUGH TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLE.  
UNCERTAINTY REIGNS THEREAFTER.  
 
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT  
INTO MONDAY UNDER CONFLUENT NORTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW. GOOD  
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO  
BELOW NORMAL LOWS, WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON  
MONDAY.  
 
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST, ALLOWING  
FOR WEAK WARM ADVECTION TO OCCUR. THIS WILL BOOST TEMPS A FEW  
DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE PRIOR TWO PERIODS, WHILE ALSO ALLOWING A  
MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A  
BAGGY MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION WILL EJECT NE AS  
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR  
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES (PEAKING WEDNESDAY) AS LOW-LEVEL SE FLOW  
INCREASES AND ADVECTS MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE MIDLEVEL  
TROUGH.  
 
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, IT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME WHETHER BAGGY  
TROUGHINESS WILL CONTINUE, RESULTING IN CLOUDY, SHOWERY CONDITIONS  
CONTINUING, OR IF IT WILL BE REPLACED BY RIDGING, RESULTING IN A  
RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER. FOR NOW, SLIGHT CHANCE TO ENTRY-LEVEL CHANCE  
POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD, WITH TEMPS REMAINING NEAR  
SEASONABLE LEVELS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS TRACKED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT  
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF KPSF. THE FLOW  
APPEARS TO BE BLOCKED WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS EXTENDING BACK  
TOWARD KGFL. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH WORDING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE  
NIGHT. SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH  
THE REST OF THE NIGHT INTO MIDMORNING FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, MAINLY  
BKN-OVC VFR STRATUS OVER THE TERMINALS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT  
INTO MUCH OF FRIDAY, EXCEPT AT KPOU WHICH WILL SEE LESS CLOUD  
COVERAGE. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY  
AS DIURNAL PROCESSES ARE LOST AND MIDLEVEL HEIGHT RISES OCCUR.  
 
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE REST OF THE  
NIGHT AT AROUND 8 TO 15 KT, EXCEPT MORE LIKE 5 TO 10 KT AT KPOU.  
SOME GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR KALB/KPSF AND  
AFTER SUNRISE AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10  
KT AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN AREAL  
COVERAGE TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH  
TODAY...BUT A PATTERN CHANGE WILL TAKE PLACE AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS  
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AND PERSIST RIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
EXPECT DRY WEATHER SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY WITH AT OR ABOVE  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 35 TO 75 PERCENT THIS  
AFTERNOON, RECOVER TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT, AND DROP TO 35  
TO 65 PERCENT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY, EXCEPT 10 TO 20  
MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH, WINDS  
WILL DECREASE IN MOST AREAS TONIGHT TO AROUND 5 MPH WITH  
NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH IN MOST AREAS ON SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE CURRENTLY SLOWLY RECEDING FROM HEAVIER  
RAINFALL EARLIER THIS WEEK.  
 
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED  
TODAY WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENTS LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. THIS  
WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS.  
 
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A  
MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME  
SNOWMELT IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD  
PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN WILL BE NEXT WEDNESDAY.  
 
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING  
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE  
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS  
ON OUR WEBSITE.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...KL/11/NAS  
NEAR TERM...11  
SHORT TERM...11  
LONG TERM...THOMPSON  
AVIATION...THOMPSON  
FIRE WEATHER...11  
HYDROLOGY...11  
 
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