552  
FXUS61 KALY 232320  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
620 PM EST THU NOV 23 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ASIDE FROM A FEW PASSING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER  
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ADIRONDACKS, IT WILL BE ANOTHER DRY AND  
CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE  
TOMORROW WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY, BEFORE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT  
RETURNS THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. IT WILL TURN COLDER  
AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
 
 
AS OF 620 PM EST...A FLAT AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS  
PASSING BY TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.  
THIS IS A MOISTURE-STARVED NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AND MRMS  
IMAGERY SHOWS JUST SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES  
OCCURRING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC,  
ALTHOUGH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A LOT OF THIS ISN'T EVEN  
REACHING THE SURFACE THANKS TO THE DRY LOW-LEVELS IN PLACE.  
 
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH  
LEVEL CLOUDS MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH JUST FAR SOUTHERN AREAS  
SEEING ANY APPRECIABLE CLEARING. THROUGH THE EVENING AND, WILL  
EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE, ALTHOUGH SKIES SHOULD START TO  
CLEAR OUT FOR LATER TONIGHT, AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO SLIDE  
EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION.  
 
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE, THE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW ALIGNS  
ITSELF ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A BRIEF LAKE RESPONSE OFF LAKE  
ONTARIO. TEMPS ALOFT ARE MARGINAL AND INVERSION HEIGHTS DON'T  
GET TOO HIGH, BUT THE COMBINATION OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW, SHALLOW  
LAKE MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW  
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ADIRONDACKS.  
MOST AREAS AROUND OLD FORGE, RAQUETTE LAKE AND BLUE MOUNTAIN  
LAKE WILL SEE JUST A COATING, ALTHOUGH UP TO AN INCH IS  
POSSIBLE (MAINLY FOR THE WOODS IN FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND  
NORTHWESTERN HAMILTON COUNTIES).  
 
LOWS TEMPS LOOK TO GENERALLY FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY, AS THE UPPER LEVEL  
FLOW FLATTENS OUT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED SOUTH  
AND EAST OF THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WITH A  
MILDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN RECENT  
DAYS, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.  
 
ALTHOUGH THE NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT  
LAKES, IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH SKY  
COVER WILL BE INCREASING WITH A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND  
IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM GETTING AS CHILLY AS  
RECENT NIGHTS, WITH LOWS IN THE 30S, AND TEMPS MAY EVEN HOLD  
STEADY OR START TO RISE TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY.  
 
A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BE SLIDING BY WELL TO THE NORTH ON  
SATURDAY, BUT THE STORM'S COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE  
REGION. THIS WILL BE ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM, SO MOISTURE  
LOOKS LIMITED ONCE AGAIN, BUT SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD  
ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY. NOT EVERYWHERE WILL SEE SHOWERS AND IN  
THOSE PLACES THAT DO, AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT. BOTH BOUNDARY  
LAYER TEMPS AND TEMPS ALOFT WARM ENOUGH AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, SO  
ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE LIQUID RAIN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL  
PASSAGE, WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S ONCE  
AGAIN. THE FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST  
BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING AND MID-AFTERNOON HOURS, ALTHOUGH THE  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PASSING OVER THE REGION FOR SATURDAY  
EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 
AS TEMPS COOL QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT, SOME LAKE EFFECT OR  
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FOR LATE SATURDAY AND  
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND  
MOHAWK VALLEY, AS 850 HPA TEMPS CRASH TO -10 TO -14 DEGREES C  
OVER THAT AREA. A LIGHT ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FOR THESE  
AREAS. SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN  
VT AS WELL. LOW TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S  
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
BY 12Z SUNDAY, AN NEUTRALLY TILTED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE  
TRAVERSING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND BECOMING SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY  
TILTED AS IT ENTERS INTO NEW ENGLAND. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL  
KICK IN AS THE TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE PASSES  
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING LEADING TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SOME  
FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS. LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD  
LIMIT MOST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.5" IN THE  
ADIRONDACKS. WITH H850 ISOTHERMS FALLING TO -8 TO -11C, WE CAN  
EXPECT A CHILLY AND BREEZY DAY WITH WIND GUSTS RANGING 25 TO 35MPH  
AND TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE 30S.  
 
BRIEF RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE TROUGH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON,  
LIKELY ENDING THE SNOW SHOWER THREAT. HOWEVER, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND  
ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING  
ANOTHER MINOR THREAT FOR SNOW. MOST OF THE 12Z/18Z MODEL SUITE  
SUGGESTS THE CLIPPER WILL TRACK THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH  
ITS SOUTHERN FRINGE BRUSHING OUT NORTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE REFLECTED  
THIS THINKING IN THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS  
IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN LAKE  
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGIONS. AGAIN, MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING SO MOST  
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 0.5." HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT THE COLD  
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER AND OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE  
20S, SNOW RATIOS COULD BE A BIT HIGHER THAN NORMAL, AROUND 13 TO 1.  
 
MOST SNOW SHOULD WRAP UP BY MONDAY MORNING AS OUR CLIPPER EXITS AND  
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES BACK INTO THE REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN  
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEM SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER BREEZY DAY WITH  
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY  
LEADING TO INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE BUT LACK OF MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP  
MOST AREAS DRY. AS WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE  
WARM FRONT, WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE  
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR TUESDAY (ABOUT 5 - 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).  
 
OUR NEXT THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD  
FRONT. GIVEN MILD TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOST SHOULD SEE  
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE DACKS  
WITH PERHAPS SOME MIXING AS THE SYSTEM EXITS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN  
RETURNS FOR THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST OF OUR REGION THROUGH  
FRIDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS  
BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 7 KTS OR LESS THROUGH  
THE TAF PERIOD.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.  
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.  
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.  
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ASIDE FROM A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVER THE  
ADIRONDACKS, MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO  
TOMORROW. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE ON  
SATURDAY, BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND SPOTTY.  
 
RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. RH VALUES  
WILL ONLY FALL TO 50 TO 70 PERCENT ON TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND 60  
TO 80 PERCENT ON SATURDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE 5 TO  
15 MPH TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AND SWITCH TO THE WEST  
AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
ASIDE FROM A FEW PASSING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR  
FLURRIES OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING  
INTO TONIGHT, MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY  
NIGHT. A PASSING COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO  
THE AREA ON SATURDAY, POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW OVER THE  
ADIRONDACKS. THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL LAKE-EFFECT SNOW  
SHOWERS AGAIN FOR WESTERN AREAS ON SUNDAY, OTHERWISE, MAINLY DRY  
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO END THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON RIVERS  
AND STREAMS. AS A RESULT, RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS WILL  
GENERALLY HOLD STEADY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE  
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING  
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE  
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS  
ON OUR WEBSITE.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS  
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11  
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS  
LONG TERM...SPECIALE  
AVIATION...11/NAS  
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS  
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS  
 
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