819  
FXUS61 KALY 281028  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
628 AM EDT TUE MAR 28 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
DESPITE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER  
TODAY THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. IN ADDITION, AN APPROACHING COLD  
FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE  
AFTERNOON HOURS. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN  
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.  
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WITH RAIN OR SNOW WILL IMPACT THE REGION ON  
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
AS OF 628 AM EDT...OUR REGION IS IN A LULL BETWEEN STORM  
SYSTEMS, AS ONE SHORTWAVE IS DEPARTING OFF NOVA SCOTIA, WHILE  
ANOTHER ONE STARTS TO APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE  
SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ALONG A FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN OHIO, AND THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDS EASTWARD  
AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. OUR REGION  
REMAINS ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY AND IT APPEARS THAT  
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE WAVE OF  
LOW PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD.  
 
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION HAS ALLOWED FOR  
PLENTY OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN  
LOCATIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE ABLE TO COOL INTO THE 30S. IN  
ADDITION, THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW PASSING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, BUT  
THE MORE APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION IS STILL BACK ACROSS THE  
UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS, MAINLY DRY  
WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE AREAS OF FOG,  
SOME OF WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE. THIS FOG WILL START TO  
BREAK UP SOMEWHAT AFTER DAYBREAK, BUT IT STILL WILL CONTINUE TO  
BE FAIRLY CLOUDY INTO THE MORNING HOURS.  
 
THE 09Z 3KM HRRR SHOWS PRECIP WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE AREA TO REACH SOUTHERN AREAS BY 10-11  
AM. RAINFALL WILL TAKE UNTIL THE AFTERNOON TO MAKE IT INTO THE  
CAPITAL REGION AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, WHILE NORTHERN AREAS  
(SUCH AS THE ADIRONDACKS) MAY ONLY SEE A FEW PASSING SHOWERS,  
AS THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. RAIN  
SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART, ALTHOUGH WITH  
PWATS RISING UP TO AROUND AN INCH BY LATER TODAY, CANNOT TOTALLY  
RULE OUT A HEAVIER BURST LATE TODAY. THE LATEST NAM12 AND GFS20  
ALL SUGGEST THE BEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF  
THE AREA, SO WON'T INCLUDE ANY THUNDER WITH THE SHOWERS AT THIS  
TIME EITHER.  
 
DESPITE THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS, WARMING TEMPS ALOFT WILL HELP BOOST  
SFC TEMPS MUCH WARMER THAN RECENT DAYS. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE  
MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY LATE TODAY FOR THE WHOLE AREA. WINDS WILL  
CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS THE  
STORM SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. HOWEVER, IT WILL  
STAY FAIRLY CLOUDY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AS LINGERING LOW  
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GET TRAPPED AND THERE REALLY WON'T BE MUCH  
CLEARING UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. AS A  
RESULT OF THE CLOUDS, TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO  
UPPER 30S, WITH THE BULK OF THE REGION REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING.  
CANNOT RULE OUT A LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE  
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT THANKS TO  
THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRYING  
OUT.  
 
ON WEDNESDAY, CLEARING WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING AND  
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP. DESPITE BEING BEHIND THE  
FRONT, GOOD MIXING AND A PARTLY SUNNY SKY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO  
REACH INTO THE 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS MOST AREAS. IT SHOULD BE  
DRY FOR MOST AREAS, BUT AGAIN TOTALLY CAN'T RULE OUT A BRIEF  
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN, AS TEMPS ALOFT  
CRASH THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  
 
CHILLY AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A  
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD  
TO BE FOLLOWED BY SOMEWHAT TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE FIRST  
WEEKEND OF APRIL.  
 
WE BEGIN ON WITH A TRANQUIL NOTE AS LARGE SURFACE HIGH TRANSFERRING  
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA EXTENDS ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS OUR REGION  
THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE H850 TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN  
BELOW 0C, UNDER LATE MARCH PARTIAL SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES SHOULD  
MODERATE INTO THE 40S AND PERHAPS TOUCH 50F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.  
 
THIS ALL CHANGES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS STORM SYSTEM  
CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION APPROACHES THE  
OHIO VALLEY REGION. IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF OF  
MEXICO AND ISENTROPIC LIFT COMMENCES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY  
MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW  
FROM THE NORTHEAST SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY COLD ENOUGH FOR  
LIGHT SNOW TO EVOLVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO THE  
FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE. QPF FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE A BIT HIGH  
WITH VALUES APPROACHING HALF AN INCH BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.  
ASSUMING THIS FALLS AS MAINLY SNOW, SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION  
ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE A TRANSITION TO RAIN OCCURS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  
HOWEVER, THERMAL PROFILES DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO THE  
ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN FROM WARM TO COLD, RESPECTFULLY. THEN  
DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE APPARENT AS THE CANADIAN IS THE SLOWEST WITH  
THE DEPARTURE OF THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF THE MOST  
PROGRESSIVE. WE FOLLOWED A BLENDED APPROACH FROM WPC AND MODEL-  
BLENDS.  
 
THE WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY TRANQUIL WITH A BROAD CYCLONIC  
FLOW AND MAYBE A WEAK SHORT WAVE OR TWO FOR SOME TERRAIN BASED  
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, AS WE ENTER THE MONTH OF APRIL, HIGH  
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE THROUGH THE 40S AND EVEN SOME LOWER 50S  
WHERE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST DO OCCUR.  
 
LOOKING JUST BEYOND THE LONG TERM, ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER  
APPEARS TO BE ON THE HORIZON FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
BASED ON THE LATEST KENX RADAR DATA, MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS  
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL  
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW  
STRATUS AND FOG, ESPECIALLY FOR KPSF/KGFL.  
 
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CEILING HEIGHTS AND VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED  
BY MID-MORNING WITH A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR/MVFR, HOWEVER, SOME  
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE  
POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE  
EXPECT PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS.  
 
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH IT WILL  
REMAIN OVC INTO TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL  
MOISTURE. SOME MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE  
LIKELY ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT SINCE THERE WON'T BE ENOUGH FLOW JUST  
YET TO GET THE DRIER AIR IN UNTIL THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.  
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN.  
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO  
HAVE SNOW ON THE GROUND. SOME OF THE VALLEY AREAS HAVE BARE  
PATCHES, BUT THE MOUNTAINS HAVE A DEEP SNOW PACK. A MOIST AND  
DAMP AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS, AS A  
COLD FRONT AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS  
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE  
MID-WEEK INTO THURSDAY WITH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER. SOME WIND  
GUSTS COULD REACH AROUND 25 MPH ON WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH RH VALUES  
WON'T BE VERY LOW AT ALL.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
SOME RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD  
FRONT, ESPECIALLY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.  
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL RANGE FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO  
OVER THE NORTHERN BASINS TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OVER THE THE MID-  
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS RAINFALL, ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED  
SNOWMELT, WILL CAUSE SOME WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS AND  
STREAMS. HOWEVER, THIS RAIN AND SNOWMELT IS NOT LIKELY TO  
PRODUCE ANY CONCERN FOR FLOODING AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST MMEFS  
GUIDANCE AND OFFICIAL FORECASTS HAVE A FEW POINTS GETTING TO  
CLOSE OR UP TO THE ALERT OR ACTION STAGE, BUT NO FLOODING IS  
FORECAST.  
 
FLOWS WILL RECEDE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MID-WEEK WITH A  
COLDER AND DRIER AIR MAS BUILDING IN. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO GO  
BELOW FREEZING WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT WITH A NORMAL DIURNAL  
MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK IN SPOTS.  
 
SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND SNOW IS  
EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM.  
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AND THE AMOUNT OF  
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. IT BE COULD BE A MODERATE TO HEAVY  
PRECIPITATION EVENT, BUT IT IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT  
THIS TIME.  
 
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING OBSERVED  
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE VISIT THE  
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR  
WEBSITE.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS  
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS  
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS  
LONG TERM...BGM  
AVIATION...FRUGIS  
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/WASULA  
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA  
 
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