856  
FXUS61 KALY 181330  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
930 AM EDT SAT AUG 18 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA  
TODAY ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL  
MOVE IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DRY AND MUCH LESS  
HUMID, ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME  
OVER FAR SOUTHERN AREAS.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 930 AM EDT, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING AHEAD  
OF A COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHERN VT TO THE ONTARIO SHORELINE AND  
NIAGARA FRONTIER REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH  
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS THE POSITIVELY  
TILTED MIDLEVEL TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH. THE FRONT WILL BE  
INTERSECTING A STILL-MOIST AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS OF  
1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES, SO IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS STILL HAVE THE  
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY ALONG  
AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PITTSFIELD, MA TO HUNTER, NY WHERE MORE  
FAVORABLE FRONTAL TIMING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME RESPECTABLE  
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY OF 1000-1500 J/KG TO DEVELOP GIVEN  
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S AND TEMPERATURES HEATING UP INTO THE  
UPPER 70S/LOW 80S. THE FRONT SHOULD BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WHICH  
WILL LIMIT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL FLASH FLOODING THREAT, BUT WILL  
HAVE TO ESPECIALLY WATCH AREAS THAT SAW HEAVY RAIN ON FRIDAY FOR  
LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUES FORECAST  
TO BE AROUND 25 KT PRESENTS A MARGINAL OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS TO  
BE ORGANIZED, WITH SEVERAL CAMS SHOWING A BROKEN LINE OF  
CONVECTION OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONT. ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS  
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MAIN THREAT PERIOD FOR GUSTY WINDS AND  
HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE ROUGHLY 16-22Z.  
 
FROM THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY TO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT, NORTHERN  
BERKSHIRES, AND SOUTHERN VERMONT AND POINTS NORTH, A DRYING  
TREND WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPS ARE A  
LITTLE TRICKY, BUT HAVE SIDED AWAY FROM THE MET MOS GUIDANCE  
WHICH APPEARS TO BE A COOL OUTLIER.  
 
TONIGHT, WE'LL BE IN A LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME IN  
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE  
REGION. A COUPLE OF LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE  
EASTERN CATSKILLS TO SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND POINTS SOUTH. TO  
THE NORTH, TRICKY CALL WITH RESPECT TO SKY COVER AS SOME  
GUIDANCE INDICATES A MIDLEVEL CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING IN THE COLD  
ADVECTION. OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA, SOME PATCHES OF FOG ARE  
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE  
NORTH. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE  
MID-50S TO MID-60S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL  
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE DELMARVA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,  
WHILE A WEAK/BAGGY MIDLEVEL TROUGH EXISTS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC  
INTO THE NORTHEAST. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS HAD DIFFICULTY  
SIMULATING POTENTIAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.  
HOWEVER, THE ECMWF, WHICH HAD BEEN A NORTHERLY OUTLIER COMPARED  
WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE, HAS NOW SHIFTED SOUTHWARD  
SUCH THAT THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST OVER MOST  
OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM. WILL RETAIN ENTRY-  
LEVEL CHANCE POPS OVER ULSTER/DUTCHESS/LITCHFIELD SUNDAY TO  
ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE FURTHER SHIFTS NORTHWARD. FOR THE REMAINDER  
OF THE FORECAST AREA, DRY EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW AT LOW/MID  
LEVELS SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY, ALTHOUGH WE MAY SEE SOME HIGH  
CLOUDS. HIGHS SUNDAY MAINLY IN THE 70S OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL  
NORMALS.  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT, RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY  
ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. HAVE GONE  
SLIGHTLY BELOW BLENDED GUIDANCE BUT STILL NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.  
 
SIMILAR STORY FOR MONDAY AS ON SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH HIGHER  
CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.  
MONDAY NIGHT, THE BAGGY TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AHEAD OF A STRONGER  
INBOUND TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SURFACE WINDS WILL  
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY WHICH MAY KEEP TEMPS A BIT WARMER  
THAN SUNDAY NIGHT, RIGHT NEAR NORMAL.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
TUESDAY, STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL  
GREAT LAKES REGION PUSHING A WARM FRONT TOWARDS THE ALBANY FORECAST  
AREA. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS WARM ADVECTION  
INCREASES ON 50KT 850MB JET. HOWEVER, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE HOLDING  
TOUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND SO PRECIPITATION MAY ONLY REACH OUR WESTERN  
ZONES LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE 70S.  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO BE  
JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTH MOVING ACROSS  
NEW YORK. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS  
THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.  
 
ON WEDNESDAY, A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE  
AFTERNOON WITH AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO  
LOWER 70S OVER THE MOUNTAINS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION,  
AND 70S TO LOWER 80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE  
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION AND CRESTS OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY  
WITH FAIR, DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE  
AUGUST. LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY.  
THERE IS STILL THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SO COMBINATION OF  
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST. EXPECTING RAIN SHOWERS THIS  
MORNING WITH THE THREAT FOR THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON AND MAINLY  
AT KALB, KPSF AND KPOU.  
 
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AT 5 TO  
10 KTS. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT KGFL THIS  
MORNING AND FINALLY AT KPOU BY SATURDAY EVENING. NORTHERLY  
WINDS COULD GUST TO 15 OR 20 KNOTS AT THE HUDSON VALLEY TAF  
SITES (KGFL, KALB AND KPOU) LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH  
OVERNIGHT TO 5 TO 10 KTS AND GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY  
SUNDAY MORNING.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.  
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.  
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.  
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
AFTER A WET DAY FRIDAY, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
EXPECTED TODAY AS COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION. A DRYING  
TREND WILL OCCUR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING, SETTING THE STAGE FOR A COOLER AND MAINLY DRY PERIOD  
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY  
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST  
WIND. RH VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN THE 50S.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
MUCH OF THE REGION SAW RAINFALL ON FRIDAY, WITH SEVERAL SPOTS  
RECEIVING IN EXCESS OF AN INCH AND SOME AREAS ACROSS COLUMBIA  
AND BERKSHIRE COUNTIES SEEING TWO TO FIVE INCHES OF RAINFALL.  
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY ALONG A  
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE INTERSECTING A STILL-MOIST  
AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS OF 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES. SOME OF  
THE STORMS STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY  
RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PITTSFIELD,  
MA TO HUNTER, NY WHERE MORE FAVORABLE FRONTAL TIMING MAY ALLOW  
FOR SOME RESPECTABLE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY OF 1000-1500 J/KG  
TO DEVELOP GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S AND TEMPERATURES  
HEATING UP INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S. THE FRONT SHOULD BE  
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WHICH WILL LIMIT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL FLASH  
FLOODING THREAT, BUT WILL HAVE TO ESPECIALLY WATCH AREAS THAT  
SAW HEAVY RAIN ON FRIDAY FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS.  
 
ALTHOUGH FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS IS POSSIBLE,  
FLOODING ON MAIN STEM RIVERS IS NOT EXPECTED.  
 
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST MONDAY  
NIGHT, ASIDE FROM PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS  
ULSTER/DUTCHESS/LITCHFIELD COUNTIES ON SUNDAY.  
 
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING  
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE  
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS  
ON OUR WEBSITE.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...THOMPSON  
NEAR TERM...11/THOMPSON  
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON  
LONG TERM...SND  
AVIATION...SND  
FIRE WEATHER...THOMPSON  
HYDROLOGY...THOMPSON  
 
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