335  
FXUS61 KALY 222011  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
411 PM EDT FRI SEP 22 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER  
THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, PROVIDING DRY  
CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TROPICAL  
STORM JOSE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTH OF CAPE COD, AND  
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH NO IMPACTS FOR  
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES COULD  
REACH RECORD HIGH LEVELS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, AS THE RIDGE  
STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION WITH THE  
TROPICAL SYSTEM OFFSHORE. NORTH TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW  
SHOULD SLOWLY EASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR  
ADVECTS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.  
 
LIGHT WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO FALL AND  
FOG SHOULD FORM ALONG RIVERS, LAKES AND SWAMPS BUT NOT SPREAD  
MUCH BEYOND THAT. AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND MAY SEE MORE  
INTERVALS OF HIGH CLOUDS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE  
TROPICAL SYSTEM ALONG WITH INTERVALS OF LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST  
WINDS.  
 
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 50S, BUT 40S NORTHERN AREAS AND MAYBE UPPER  
50S TO NEAR 60 MID HUDSON VALLEY, NW CT AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES,  
WHERE AGAIN, THERE COULD BE SOME INTERVALS OF HIGH CLOUDS AND  
SOME LIGHT PERSISTENT NORTH TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE LOW  
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH INTO OUR REGION FROM THE  
NORTH AND NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD  
OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST AND NORTH AS WELL, CAUSING LOW LEVEL  
FLOW TO WEAKEN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE, LIMITING MIXING POTENTIAL.  
 
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WARM TO LEVELS THAT WOULD RESULT IN  
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SOLIDLY IN THE 90S IF IT WERE THE MIDDLE OF  
SUMMER BUT THE RAPIDLY DECREASING SUN ANGLE AND THE LACK OF WIND  
TO HELP WITH MIXING COULD LIMIT THE WARMING POTENTIAL. LOW LEVEL  
MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE BUT WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW SO WEAK,  
SURFACE DEW POINTS MAY NOT GET AS HIGH AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.  
TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT MAY BE ABLE TO FALL TO THE LOWER END OF  
GUIDANCE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LACK OF RAIN  
RECENTLY HAS CONTRIBUTED TO RELATIVELY DRY GROUND AND NIGHTS ARE  
GETTING LONGER NOW THAT WE ARE INTO AUTUMN.  
 
SO, IT IS TOUGH TO SAY HOW MUCH MIXING WE WILL GET AS  
TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM IN THE MIDWEST ARE GETTING INTO THE 90S  
BUT IN RECENT DAYS, WE JUST HAVE NOT BEEN MIXING AS WELL AS WE  
HAVE IN THE SUMMER EVEN WITH FULL SUN AND AT LEAST SOME WIND  
DURING THE DAY.  
 
STILL FORECASTING SOLID 80S SATURDAY WITH SOME 70S HIGHER  
TERRAIN. EVEN IF WE DO NOT REACH FULL MIXING POTENTIAL SUNDAY  
AND MONDAY, WE SHOULD SEE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE QUESTION  
IS WHETHER WE HIT 90 IN SOME AREAS EITHER DAY OR BOTH DAYS.  
FULL MIXING POTENTIAL IF WE WERE IN THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER WOULD  
SUGGEST POSSIBLE HIGHS IN THE MID 90S BUT AGAIN IT IS AUTUMN,  
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MUCH LOWER SUN ANGLE. IT MAY HIT 90 BUT  
IT WILL FEEL QUITE WARM WHETHER WE ARE IN THE UPPER 80S OR  
AROUND 90, WITH DEWPOINTS AT LEAST AROUND 60 IF NOT LOWER 60S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL TRANSITION TO MORE SEASONABLE  
TEMPERATURES BY LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH A POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS  
DURING THE TRANSITION.  
 
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE STRONG MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC  
RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS A TROUGH APPROACHES  
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MID TO LATE WEEK. HURRICANE MARIA IS  
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST, GRADUALLY MOVING  
NORTH/NORTHEAST. PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR  
OFFICIAL FORECASTS ON MARIA.  
 
TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE WARM AND HUMID, WITH HIGH  
TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY 20 OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN SOME  
AREAS. EXPECT HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WELL INTO THE 80S, AND COULD  
APPROACH 90, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER  
VALLEY AND MOHAWK VALLEY, WHICH MAY REMAIN SLIGHTLY FARTHER REMOVED  
FROM ANY POSSIBLE MARINE-MODIFIED INFLUENCE. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD  
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND WESTERN NEW  
ENGLAND, PERHAPS DUE TO SOME ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE  
EXTREME OUTER EDGE OF MARIA'S CIRCULATION. TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE  
WARM AND HUMID WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.  
 
A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME BETWEEN  
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FORCING LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK, WITH THE MAIN  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LAGGING QUITE FAR TO THE WEST. WILL INCLUDE  
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. HIGHS WEDNESDAY MAY STILL REACH THE LOWER  
80S IN VALLEYS, WITH MAINLY 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. WED NT/THU AM  
LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.  
 
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR SHOULD MOVE INTO  
THE REGION FOR LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES  
GRADUALLY FALLING BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS. WITH THE MAIN  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING WEST OF THE REGION, SOME SHOWERS MAY  
ALSO PERSIST, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS WHERE A  
COMBINATION OF OROGRAPHIC AND LAKE ENHANCED EFFECTS MAY OCCUR.  
THURSDAY HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 70S IN VALLEYS, AND 60S ACROSS  
HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS THU NT/FRI AM FALLING INTO THE  
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. HIGHS FRIDAY ONLY IN THE 60S FOR VALLEYS, AND  
50S ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS ROTATING AROUND THE EXTREME NORTHWEST  
PERIPHERY OF POST-TROPICAL STORM JOE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA,  
WITH SOME STRATOCU WITH 3-4 KFT BASED OCCASIONALLY DRIFTING  
ACROSS KPSF. DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL LEAD TO MAINLY VFR  
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING 18Z SATURDAY.  
SOME LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP AT KGFL WITH POSSIBLE MVFR VSBY, BUT  
DRY AIR IN LOW LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY THICKER/PERSISTENT  
FOG.  
 
WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 7-12 KT  
WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ESPECIALLY AT KPOU. WINDS WILL BECOME  
VARIABLE AT 5 KT OR LESS LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH THE REST OF  
TONIGHT.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO  
SIG WX.  
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER  
THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, PROVIDING DRY  
CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TROPICAL  
STORM JOSE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTH OF CAPE COD, AND  
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH NO IMPACTS FOR  
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES COULD  
REACH RECORD HIGH LEVELS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, AS THE RIDGE  
STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD.  
 
RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE 75 TO 100 PERCENT RANGE TONIGHT AND  
SATURDAY NIGHT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT 15 MPH OR LESS WILL BECOME LIGHT  
AND VARIABLE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT  
WEEK. AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF FAIR AND WARM WEATHER IS FORECAST  
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.  
 
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING  
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE  
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS  
ON OUR WEBSITE.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  
 
HERE IS A LIST OF THE CURRENT RECORD HIGHS FOR SEPTEMBER 24/25:  
 
ALBANY NY:  
SEPTEMBER 24TH/SUNDAY: 87 DEGREES 1961  
SEPTEMBER 25TH/MONDAY: 89 DEGREES 1970  
DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874  
 
GLENS FALLS NY:  
SEPTEMBER 24TH/SUNDAY: 86 DEGREES 1961  
SEPTEMBER 25TH/MONDAY: 84 DEGREES 2007  
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949  
 
POUGHKEEPSIE NY:  
SEPTEMBER 24TH/SUNDAY: 91 DEGREES 1959  
SEPTEMBER 25TH/MONDAY: 89 DEGREES 1970  
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949, HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING  
FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...NAS  
NEAR TERM...NAS  
SHORT TERM...NAS  
LONG TERM...KL  
AVIATION...JPV  
FIRE WEATHER...NAS  
HYDROLOGY...NAS  
CLIMATE...  
 
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