899  
FXUS61 KPBZ 222130  
AFDPBZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA  
530 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL GENERATE PERIODIC SHOWER AND  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
 
 
THE EVENING UPDATE FEATURED SOME UPWARD, BUT MAINLY COSMETIC  
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.  
 
PREVIOUS...  
STACKED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE IL/IN BORDER WILL CONTINUE  
TO SLOWLY SHIFT ENE...OVER NORTHERN OH BY SATURDAY MORNING.  
MULTIPLE WAVES WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS IN PLAY THROUGH THE  
PERIOD. FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN WV AND OH  
ZONES WHERE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND RELATIVELY LOW FFG  
VALUES COME TOGETHER.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT  
LAKES ON SATURDAY...MAINTAINING PERIODIC SHOWERS AND STORMS AS  
WAVES OF ENERGY CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH.  
 
OVERALL INSTABILITY LOOKS MARGINAL, BUT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF  
AVAILABLE MOISTURE, AS DEWPOINTS PUSH WELL INTO THE 60S.  
THUNDER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...SO HAVE KEPT IN THE  
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
SHOWER CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON  
AFTER THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.  
FOLLOWING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT...A WEAK  
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SUNDAY, SO CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN  
MAINTAINED.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A LIMITED DIURNAL RANGE...SUPPRESSED BY  
THE CLOUDS AND RAIN, WITH HIGHS NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL, AND  
LOWS ABOVE NORMAL.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE AND A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY. A WARMING  
TREND IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED HEADING TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF  
NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
CEILINGS WILL VARY BETWEEN VFR AND HIGH MVFR THIS EVENING WITH  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM  
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF PIT/AGC, BUT CANNOT RULE  
OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAKING IT INTO THIS AREA. MOISTURE  
POOLING AROUND THE NORTHERN RIDGES WILL BRING MVFR AND  
POTENTIALLY IFR TO NORTHERN PORTS OF FKL/DUJ TONIGHT. AS THE LOW  
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL FILL  
IN FURTHER AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD AREAWIDE.  
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY FROM S-N.  
 
OUTLOOK... PERIODIC RESTRICTION POTENTIAL CONTINUES THROUGH SUN  
NIGHT AS SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA.  
 

 
   
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...NONE.  
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR OHZ039-040-  
048>050-057>059-068-069.  
PA...NONE.  
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR WVZ003-004-  
012.  
 

 
 

 
 
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