245  
FXUS61 KPBZ 180145  
AFDPBZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA  
945 PM EDT TUE OCT 17 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND  
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES  
AND LIGHT WIND. WHILE TONIGHT WOULD OFFER UP A SIMILAR SCENARIO  
TO LAST NIGHT/THIS MORNING WITH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES  
AND FROST POTENTIAL, WE DON'T ANTICIPATE TO FULLY DECOUPLE AS  
THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING TO PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD  
FROST. IN ADDITION, INCREASING DEWPOINTS IN EVEN WEAK SOUTHWEST  
FLOW SUPPORTS A PATCHY, AT BEST, FROST MENTION AND NO HEADLINES.  
 
SLIGHT MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN TEMPERATURE TOMORROW WITH  
PLENTY OF INSOLATION AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION. VALUES WILL BE  
JUST A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE TODAYS HIGHS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE  
REMAINS IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT A SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN  
GREAT LAKES WILL KNOCK THEM DOWN TEMPORARILY THURSDAY. DESPITE  
THIS, THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH, TOWARDS HUDSON  
BAY, AND THUS THE DRY FORECAST IS MAINTAINED. TEMPERATURES WILL  
RISE BACK ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS, REACHING AROUND 70 ONCE AGAIN BY  
THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY, WITH THE RIDGE  
PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS LEADS TO A CONTINUATION OF  
THE DRY AND WARM PATTERN. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES SUNDAY  
NIGHT/MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. A TROUGHING PATTERN MAY THEN SET  
UP BY TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES  
AROUND NORMAL, IF NOT LOWER THAN THAT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. WIND  
WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY  
VALLEY FOG THAT DEVELOPS MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT THE TYPICAL  
TERMINALS BUT THE DURATION AND CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT IS NOT  
HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION.  
   
OUTLOOK
 
 
NO WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.  
 

 
   
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
PA...NONE.  
WV...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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