051
FXUS61 KPBZ 081951 AAA
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
251 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY
AND COOLER CONDITIONS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
LARGE RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS
THROUGH MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. SOME RATHER DRAMATIC DIFFERENCES IN MODELS
THROUGH THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. GFS TRIES TO BRING
IDA REMNANTS NORTH AND PHASE WITH NORTHERN STREAM TROF TO CREATE A
CLOSED LOW WELL INLAND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. NAM KEEPS IDA
REMAINS SUPPRESSED FAR SOUTH, WITH OTHER MODELS HAVING VARIOUS
SCENARIOS BUT NONE AS EXTREME AS THE GFS. WHILE DEALING WITH
TROPICAL REMAINS IS ALWAYS PROBLEMATIC, WILL NOT FOLLOW GFS AND
WILL KEEP WITH A SOLUTION NEARER THE NAM, AND THIS IS IN AGREEMENT
WITH HPC THINKING AS WELL. AS SUCH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH FRONT
TUESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY COOL DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
A MID-LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY THURSDAY.
BEGINNING OF FCST IS CLOSEST TO A NAM/EMCWF BLEND WITH THE LOCATION
OF THE TROF AXIS. BEHIND THE TROF...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT BROAD RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
IS FASTER IN BUILDING A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN FOR THE LATE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH REGARDLESS OF THE TIMING...DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED TO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. A DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED
INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS.
LATE ON SATURDAY...A TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HUDSON BAY...WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWWD FROM ITS ASSOCD SFC LOW INTO THE THE
UPPER MIDWEST. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...FLOW WILL BE MORE ZONAL ACROSS
THE AREA. THE CHC OF WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY PASSING WILL RETURN AS
AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SWRLY LATE ON SATURDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE...WITH A LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE
MODELS WITH THE TIMING OF THE A FRONT BOUNDARY PASSING LATE NEXT
WEEKEND...THUS HAVE GONE WITH SCHC POPS SATURDAY AND CHC POPS INTO
SUNDAY.
AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...KEEPING
THE TERMINALS IN A WEAK SRLY FLOW WITH A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO ADVECT NEWD INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. REDUCED CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCD PRECIP
WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST CHANCES OF ANY RAIN REMAINING SOUTH OF
THE TERMINALS. ANOTHER BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
INTO THE AREA...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
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