266
FXUS61 KPBZ 071502 AAA
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1102 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2008
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY WHILE WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. OTHER THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 IN PENNSYLVANIA TODAY, THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL COME WITH A TUESDAY COLD FRONT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL HEAD EAST TOWARD NEW YORK WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE. BEST SUPPORT STAYS WELL NORTH OF CWA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FAR NORTH AROUND I-80 WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE AS SYSTEMS PASSES TONIGHT AND WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
DRY WEATHER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF FRONT MONDAY NIGHT BUT RAIN CHANCES
DO NOT INCREASE UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN DEEP MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD
OF FRONT FAIRLY DECENT HEIGHT FALLS WITH UPPER TROUGH. COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS ENDING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN GENERALLY FLAT FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING DRY
AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RETURN FLOW ON
BACKSIDE OF SURFACE HIGH WILL INCREASE MOISTURE LATE WEAK AND
COMBINED WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES IN ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. NO
CHANGES TO SATURDAY WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND
POSSIBLE MOISTURE MOVING NORTH FORM GULF COAST.
AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A CROSSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL GENERATE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
TODAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST PA. GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY UNDER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING BACK OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
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