633  
FXUS61 KPBZ 230528 AAC  
AFDPBZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA  
128 AM EDT THU MAR 23 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
SUNSHINE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES TODAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN  
THIS WEEKEND WITH A CONTINUED WARMING TREND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
 
 
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  
 
AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE CHESAPEAKE BAY TODAY, WARM  
ADVECTION WILL TAKE OVER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO  
REBOUND TOWARD MORE SEASONAL LEVELS. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY AS  
A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE. MAY BE SOME PASSING  
CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT ANY REAL CLOUD INCREASE WILL HOLD OFF  
UNTIL THE EVENING.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
MODELS ARE CONTINUING THE TREND OF PUSHING THE DEEP MOISTURE,  
LARGE SCALE ASCENSION AND MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FURTHER  
NORTH. IN ADDITION TO THE SHIFT NORTHWARD, PRECIPITATION ONSET  
IS SLOWING. THIS IS ALL IN RESPONSE TO A SLOWLY STRENGTHENING  
RIDGE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR  
A RAPIDLY WARMING ATMOSPHERE, AND IN TURN A DRIER AND MORE  
STABLE ATMOSPHERE. AS HEIGHTS RISE TONIGHT, MOST, IF NOT ALL,  
OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE SHOVED NORTHWARD TOWARD THE  
GREAT LAKES. BECAUSE OF THIS, HAVE SHIFTED POP COVERAGE  
NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND REMOVED THE MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN.  
 
MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL PASS QUICKLY TO THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING AND  
THE WARM ADVECTION AND RISING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE.  
ANY LINGER SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY END DURING THE MORNING. THE  
PUSH NORTHWARD OF THE EASTERN RIDGE WILL ALSO SHOVE THE WARM  
FRONT FURTHER TO THE NORTH, ENGULFING THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE  
EXPANDING WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP THE REST OF FRIDAY  
DRY AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.  
 
WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTH, SATURDAY LOOKS  
DRY AS WELL. PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE WITH THE EASTERN RIDGE FIRMLY  
IN PLACE AND ANY UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL BE SHOVED WELL TO THE  
NORTH OF THE AREA. THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER  
SATURDAY, AS THE ATMOSPHERE SLOWLY BECOMES MORE SATURATED. EVEN  
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AN UPPER LOW EJECTING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL  
PUSH A FRONT OUR WAY ON SUNDAY WITH GOOD RAIN CHANCES. THE  
FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS,  
BEFORE ANOTHER LOW THREATENS TO BRING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ONCE  
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER AND HIGH PRESSURE MAY  
THEN RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES ARE A STRONG POSSIBILITY THROUGHOUT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE VFR AND LIGHT, VARIABLE WIND  
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. A CROSSING SHORTWAVE IN CONJUNCTION  
WITH A WARM FRONT MAY GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR FKL AND DUJ  
IN THE POST 06Z PERIOD OF FRIDAY.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS NOT EXPECTED  
UNTIL THE APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE EARLY ON SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
PA...NONE.  
WV...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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