647
FXUS61 KPBZ 240837
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
337 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009
SYNOPSIS
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHING FOR MID WEEK. SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS THURSDAY. IT WILL TURN MUCH COLDER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH SNOW SHOWERS MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIMES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
LINGERING DRIZZLE WILL EXIT THE RIDGES AND FAR NORTH EARLY THIS
MORNING LEAVING BEHIND CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS REGION AHEAD OF A LARGE COMPLEX
UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN LAKES WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE
ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
STRONG CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL WORK ACROSS GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SHOWERS WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY COLDER AIR FOR THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH A MIX SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES BELOW MEX MOS FRIDAY WHICH
SEEMS TO BE RUNNING WARM BASED ON ECMWF AND GFS THICKNESS AND 850MB
TEMPS. LIGHT COATING OF SNOW POSSIBLE LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
NORTH OF PITTSBURGH AND ALONG RIDGES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
SURFACE LOW WILL BOMB OUT OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS CENTER OF CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.
850MB TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY FROM -5C TO
-7C AND WITH WELL ALIGNED NORTHWEST FLOW SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE RIDGES. UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENDING SNOW SHOWERS WITH
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM EARLIER PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
OVER REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS AT SEVERAL
TAF LOCATIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR WITH DEPARTURE OF
PRECIPITATION...EXPECT DETERIORATION TO IFR/LIFR BEFORE SUNRISE AS
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOP.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR CEILINGS AND UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITY BY THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME DRYING OCCURS WITH WEAK
RIDGING.
PREDOMINATELY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH
AREAS OF IFR FOG DEVELOPING LATE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS. SOME IMPROVEMENT COULD
OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND
MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS OCCURS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS MOISTURE AND
COLDER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE LOW.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
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