044  
FXUS63 KIWX 212351  
AFDIWX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA  
751 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014  
 
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD  
FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. ASIDE FROM SOME CLOUD COVER  
OVERNIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED  
AFTER TONIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL  
GRADUALLY WARM FROM HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S MONDAY TO HIGHS IN THE  
MID TO UPPER 70S BY FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014  
 
THE FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE ENDING OF SHOWERS EARLY TONIGHT AND  
AMOUNT OF CLEARING OVERNIGHT. A SHORT WAVE TROF WAS MOVING ACROSS  
LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY  
COLD FRONT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM FROM NORTHEAST ILLINOIS  
INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT IN ADDITION TO  
THE UPPER TROF AND COLD FRONT WERE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS.  
KEPT A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER  
NORTHEAST GIVEN THE INSTABILITY WITH COLD AIR ALOFT. THERE WERE A  
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN NORTH OF  
INTERSTATE 94 DURING THE MIDDLE OF THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD  
BEGIN TO CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY TONIGHT. SOME CONCERN FOR LAKE  
CLOUDS FORMING UNDER THE BASE OF A DEVELOPING INVERSION OVERNIGHT.  
ADDED SOME LAKE CLOUDS TONIGHT GIVEN A FAVORABLE FETCH AND  
INCREASING DELTA T VALUES. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY  
WITH LOWS AWAY FROM ANY LINGERING AREAS OF LAKE CLOUDS WELL DOWN  
INTO THE 40S. KEPT TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW NORMAL MONDAY WITH HIGHS  
AROUND 60S MOST AREAS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014  
 
VERY LITTLE TO DISCUSS WITH RESPECT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE LONG  
TERM PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION  
THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE...TRENDING  
FROM BELOW NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL BY END OF PERIOD. IT SHOULD REMAIN  
DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND LIKELY DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  
MODELS DO BEGIN TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE NEXT WEEKEND IN  
RESPONSE TO SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE WORKING TOWARD THE AREA WITH WEAK  
UPPER LOW UNDERCUTTING RIDGE. NO SUPPORT FOR ADDING POPS WITH LACK  
OF ANY STRONG UPPER AIR SUPPORT OR SFC TRIGGER.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014  
 
MVFR CIGS ONGOING AT TERMINALS W/ ONSET OF TAF PERIOD...AS UPPER  
TROF DIGS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN  
TO SCATTER OUT AFTER 03Z AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION.  
SOME CONCERN FOR MVFR CONDS AT TERMINALS TOWARD DAYBREAK  
MONDAY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE TO LOW ATTM FOR MENTION IN TAF...ASIDE  
FROM A TEMPO 4SM BR AT KFWA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA  
W/ FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.  
 

 
   
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IN...NONE.  
MI...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.  
 
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...NG  
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER  
LONG TERM...LASHLEY  
AVIATION...NG  
 
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)  
 
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:  
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA  
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX  
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA  
 
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