302  
FXUS63 KIWX 170948  
AFDIWX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA  
548 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014  
 
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES  
AS AFTERNOON HIGHS REACH NEAR 60 DEGREES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN  
WILL BE LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS  
THROUGH THE REGION. THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE WITH  
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING TO NEAR 70 DEGREES BY SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014  
 
PERSISTENT WAA IS EXPECTED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY AS AN UPPER  
MIDWEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH DAMPENS NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES.  
NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPS WILL RESULT WITH MIXING DEPTHS DEEPER WHEN  
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS THETA-E RIDGE DROPS IN AND SFC WINDS VEER  
SSW IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. CONSIDERABLE MID-HIGH LEVEL  
CLOUDINESS MAY LIMIT TEMP RISES A BIT ACROSS NW IN/SW LOWER MI.  
 
SFC BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN LAKES WAVE  
WILL GRADUALLY SINK INTO OUR NW IN/SW LOWER MI ZONES LATER THIS  
EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE HERE  
DURING THIS TIME AS DEEPER SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WITH AN  
APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DEVELOPING RRQ UPPER JET  
SUPPORT ENHANCES THE FRONTOGENETICAL RESPONSE. HOWEVER...LIMITED  
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING/RETURN AND EXPECTED NARROW BAND  
PRECLUDES ANYTHING HIGHER THAN A MID CHC POP AFTER 03Z.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014  
 
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO LONG TERM FORECAST. STILL LOOKS TO  
BE JUST A COUPLE PERIODS WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH  
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
FRIDAY BEGINS WITH SHORT WAVE AND WEAK SURFACE FRONT CROSSING THE  
AREA. MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS LIMITED WITH SLIGHT POOLING  
ALONG FRONT AND MODEST MID LEVEL FORCING. THIS WARRANTS THE  
CONTINUATION OF MID CHANCE POPS IN THE MORNING WITH DECREASING POPS  
IN AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THEN SETTLES INTO THE  
REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. COOL EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED  
SATURDAY BUT THIS TO BE OFFSET BY PLENTY OF SUN AND WARM AIR  
ADVECTION ALOFT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND UP A FEW DEGREES AND  
HAVE FOLLOWED WITH EXPECTED HIGHS RANGING FROM UPPER 50S EAST TO  
MIDDLE 60S SOUTHWEST.  
 
DEEPER MIXING ON EASTER SUNDAY ALONG WITH A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF NEXT  
SYSTEM PER LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A MILD AND DRY DAY IN  
STORE. 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO BETWEEN 8C AND 10C WITH DRY ADIABATIC  
MIXING YIELDING POTENTIAL FOR LOW TO MID 70S. NOT ENTIRELY READY TO  
JUMP ON THIS BUT CONTINUED TO NUDGE TEMPS WARMER BY A FEW DEGREES.  
 
DEEP CLOSED LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE SLOWING  
EASTWARD PROGRESS OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM AS SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER  
THE OHIO VALLEY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN NOW LOOKS TO BE MONDAY WITH  
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM. MODELS STILL NOT SHOWING A GOOD GULF TAP BUT  
DECENT SHORT WAVE DEPICTED AMONG MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WARRANTS POP  
INCLUSION. TEMPS REMAIN SEASONAL FOR DAY 6 AND 7 BEHIND THIS FRONT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 548 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014  
 
DRY LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST TODAY INTO  
TONIGHT. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER SOUTHERLY WITH  
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...WITH  
WINDS RELAXING TONIGHT AS GRADIENT DIMINISHES NEAR FRONT. A NARROW  
BAND OF RAIN MAY MATERIALIZE INVOF THIS FRONT LATE THIS EVENING  
INTO FRIDAY MORNING NEAR SBN. OPTED FOR A VCSH MENTION FOR NOW  
GIVEN SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE EXACTLY THIS WILL SET UP  
AND HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE LOW LEVELS TO SATURATE.  
 

 
   
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IN...NONE.  
MI...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
LM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL/KG  
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL  
LONG TERM...LASHLEY  
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL  
 
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX  
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA  
 
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