411  
FXUS63 KIWX 151907  
AFDIWX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA  
307 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2018  
 
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO  
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ON MONDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF  
INTERSTATE 69 MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT  
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL BUILD  
IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD. ONE  
MORE MUGGY NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS IN THE 70S. HIGHS WILL REBOUND  
BACK TOWARDS OR ABOVE 80 ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COOLER  
AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2018  
 
TEMPERATURES HAVE JUMPED WELL INTO THE 80S (MID TO UPPER IN MOST  
SPOTS) ALLOWING CU FIELD TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT  
BEHIND THE LAKE BREEZE/SHADOW WORKING INLAND. SOME HINTS OF SUBTLE  
BOUNDARIES OUT THERE AS WELL AS WHAT LOOKS LIKE A WEAK WAVE  
PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL IN. RADAR NOW STARTING TO LIGHT UP FROM  
WHITE TO MIAMI COUNTY WITH A CONTINUED UPWARD TRENDS EXPECTED OVER  
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SMALL LINES OR CLUSTERS MAY TAKE SHAPE  
BUT AT THIS POINT THINKING NO MORE THAN CHC MENTION. STORMS WILL  
BE PULSY IN NATURE AS CELL TAP 1K-2K J/KG OF MLCAPE BUT QUICKLY  
COLLAPSE ON THEMSELVES WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHEAR.  
BOUNDARY/STORM INTERACTIONS COULD ALLOW FOR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS  
BUT SUSPECT REMAINING BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.  
 
ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY WANE BY THE 3-6Z WINDOW WITH PEAK HEATING  
LONG GONE. WILL LOWER ANY POPS TO 14% OR LESS UNTIL APPROACHING  
12Z MON WHEN FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES BEGIN TO EDGE TOWARDS THE AREA  
FROM THE NW. CAMS VARYING SOMEWHAT IN EXACT EVOLUTION/PLACEMENT OF  
BEST CHANCES BUT ALL AGREE ON NO MORE THAN MID RANGE CHC POPS  
WARRANTED AS BEST IMPACTS FROM SHORTWAVE PASS NORTHEAST OF THE  
AREA. COULD ARGUE NE IN/NW OHIO COULD HAVE SLIGHTLY BETTER SHOT AT  
PRECIP BUT WILL LEAVE HIGHEST SE HALF OR SO. NON-ZERO SEVERE  
THREAT WITH PRECIP LOADING OF A STRONGER CELL ABOUT THE ONLY SHOT  
FOR GUSTY WINDS BUT EVEN THIS WILL LIKELY BE A STRETCH GIVEN  
PITIFUL WIND FIELDS ALOFT. IF YOUR LUCKY ENOUGH TO GET UNDER ONE  
YOU MAY PICK UP A QUICK QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2018  
 
OUTSIDE OF A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGER CONVECTION IN THE SE DURING  
MONDAY EVENING, THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT RATHER QUIET  
AND SEASONABLE WARM. 850 MB TEMPS DO DROP SEVERAL DEGREES BEHIND  
THE FRONT FOR TUES INTO WEDS NIGHT. BLENDED MODELS HAVE BEEN  
GIVING HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WHICH MAY BE A TOUCH  
COOLER THAT WHAT WILL OCCUR. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST INTO  
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS TRENDING BACK TOWARDS THE 80S BY THURSDAY.  
 
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A PATTERN CHANGE WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW  
DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY  
SATURDAY EVENING. THIS SHOULD BRING MORE PROMISING CHANCES FOR  
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE WEEKEND. SOME DIFFICULTY HONING IN ON  
BEST CHANCES BUT SHOULD FOCUS ON AFTERNOON/EVE PERIOD THAT  
COINCIDE WITH PASSING OF SUBTLE WAVES. MAINTAIN MID CHANCE POPS  
FOR THE TIME BEING.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1236 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2018  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH  
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED LATE DAY CONVECTION TOO LOW FOR A VCTS  
MENTION AT THE TERMINALS. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING CHANCES FOR  
BR/FG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA TOWARD DAYBREAK  
TOMORROW. OPTED TO ADD A MVFR VIS GROUP FOR NOW WITH RECENT DRY  
STRETCH HOPEFULLY KEEPING MORE IMPACTFUL FOG/STRATUS FROM  
DEVELOPING.  
 

 
   
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IN...NONE.  
MI...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
LM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...MARSILI/FISHER  
SHORT TERM...FISHER  
LONG TERM...FISHER  
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL  
 
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX  
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA  
 
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