536  
FXUS63 KIWX 270804  
AFDIWX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA  
404 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN  
U.S. CAUSING WARM MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE  
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL  
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER OR MIDDLE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S. A LOW  
CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS  
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016  
 
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH ABUNDANT  
MOISTURE BUT A LACK OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. WATER VAPOR AND IR  
IMAGERY SHOWING NUMEROUS WEAK MCVS EMBEDDED WITHIN WIDESPREAD  
CONVECTION AND DEBRIS CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. SPECTRAL MODELS  
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH CONVECTIVE DETAILS GIVEN MORE COARSE  
RESOLUTION AND CONVECTIVE MODELS REMAIN OVERDONE AT TIMES. WEAK FLOW  
AND LACK OF STRONG SHORT WAVE MAKES FOR DIFFICULT FORECAST WITH  
RESPECT TO WHEN AND WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP.  
 
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST FROM  
SOUTHERN IL AND IN AT 08Z. HRRR HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS AREA AND  
BRINGS IT INTO FAR SOUTHWEST AROUND 12Z WITH DECAYING/WEAKENING  
TRENDS AS IT LIFTS NORTH. HAVE MIDDLE RANGE CHANCE POPS FOR THIS  
AREA. INSTABILITY AGAIN SHOWN BY MODELS TO BE IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG  
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. CONCERN THAT DEBRIS CLOUDINESS MAY BE MORE  
EXTENSIVE TODAY AND MAY NOT SEE AS MUCH AFTERNOON SUN AS ON  
THURSDAY. CONTINUED WITH A LOW TO MID CHANCE POP THIS AFTERNOON WITH  
CONVECTIVE MODELS AGAIN SHOWING SOME DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD  
STILL REACH LOWER 80S WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS AS SFC DEWPOINTS REMAIN  
IN THE MID 60S. LINGERING LOW CHANCE POPS TONIGHT IN THE WEST WITH  
DEEP MOISTURE FEED AND ANY WEAK MCV COULD EASILY SET OFF A FEW  
STORMS. LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016  
 
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS DEEP SOUTHWEST  
FLOW CONTINUES TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. A FEW WEAK SHORT  
WAVES SATURDAY BUT STRONGER WAVE APPEARS IN THE MODELS FOR SUNDAY AS  
UPPER LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND STRONGER SHORT  
WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA. 0-6KM SHEAR INCREASES AND  
POTENTIAL CAPES OF 2K J/KG OR GREATER IF WE PARTIALLY CLEAR. WILL  
SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT AS MODELS HAVE YET TO IMPRESS IN THIS REGIME.  
 
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE APPEARS LIKELY FOR MEMORIAL  
DAY BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE AND BUILDING HEIGHTS. THIS IN PART  
TO BLOCKY PATTERN WITH TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL LOW MEANDERING OVER THE  
CAROLINAS AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGING DEVELOPS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES  
RETURN MID WEEK AS MOISTURE PLUME RETURNS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AS  
ANOTHER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS.  
 
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S DURING THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE  
60S. TEMPS WILL TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER BY MID TO END OF WEEK  
WITH DEW POINTS ALSO BACK INTO THE 50S MAKING IT A BIT MORE  
COMFORTABLE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016  
 
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE. HIGH CLOUDS  
FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER BOTH SITES.  
A FEW OF THE HI RES MODELS STILL SHOW SOME MVFR STRATUS/FOG  
TAKING SHAPE 9 TO 10Z FRI WINDOW TO AFTER SUNRISE. 1 OR 2 OF THEM  
ACTUALLY SHOW A DROP TO IFR CIGS FOR A FEW HOURS. LOW CONFIDENCE  
IN SETUP WARRANTS HOLDING WITH WHAT WAS ALREADY IN PLACE.  
 
UPSTREAM CONVECTION ACROSS NE MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS  
MAY HOLD TOGETHER OR AID IN WIDELY SCT SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT  
FROM 17Z ON...WARRANTING HOLDING ONTO VCSH FOR NOW. PRIOR TO  
THIS...SHOULD END UP DRY BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER POPPING  
AT EITHER SITE.  
 

 
   
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IN...NONE.  
MI...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
LM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY  
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY  
LONG TERM...LASHLEY  
AVIATION...FISHER  
 
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