076  
FXUS63 KIWX 142029  
AFDIWX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA  
329 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016  
 
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND  
CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.  
SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 1  
AND 3 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE TONIGHT  
FROM THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S IN THE EVENING, TO THE MIDDLE AND  
UPPER 20S BY DAWN MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL  
MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY, POSSIBLY CAUSING SOME LIGHT SNOW,  
MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BUT LITTLE OR NO  
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST  
MONDAY ALLOWING FOR CONSIDERABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN TODAY,  
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016  
 
VORT MAX MOVG INTO WRN IL THIS AFTN WILL CONT TO SHEAR OUT AS IT  
MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH BEST FORCING AND  
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLJ WILL BYPASS OUR AREA  
TO THE SOUTH, THERE IS RATHER STRONG 500-300MB Q VECTOR  
CONVERGENCE MOVG INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE VORT MAX AND MODEST  
WAA IMPLIED BY KIWX/AMDAR VEERING WIND PROFILES AIDING UVM AND  
ALLOWING AREA OF SNOW TO ADVANCE E-NE ACROSS WRN PORTION OF OUR  
CWA THIS AFTN. WITH SYSTEM WKNG AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA, SNOW  
CHANCES PEAK EARLY TONIGHT, THEN GRDLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. NO  
SGFNT CHANGE IN FCST AMOUNTS WITH STORM TOTALS FROM THIS AFTN TO  
LATE TONIGHT GENERALLY 1-3", HIGHEST SW CWA AND LOWEST NE. WAA  
OVERNIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISING FROM THE  
TEENS/L20S IN THE EVENING TO THE M-U20S BY DAWN.  
 
A WEAKER SHRTWV WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY WHILE LOW LEVEL  
WAA CONTS. GIVEN WK FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE AND MID LEVEL  
MOISTURE SCOURED OUT BY TONIGHT'S SYSTEM, JUST MAINTAINED  
CHC/SCHC POPS, MAINLY ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SOME  
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO LIQUID MONDAY AS MID LEVEL  
MOISTURE DIMINISHES, HOWEVER, BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVELS  
WILL REMAIN UNSATURATED, ALLOWING FOR SOME EVAPORATIONAL COOLING  
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SNOW GRAINS AS OPPOSED TO DRIZZLE/FREEZING  
DRIZZLE, SO NO CHANGE TO PTYPE FCST ATTM. CONTD LOW LEVEL WAA  
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE M30S ON MONDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016  
 
MAIN ITEM OF NOTE FOR THIS LONG TERM PERIOD IS POTENTIAL FOR SNOW  
LATE TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE IMMENSELY WITH EXACT  
PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF COMPACT PV ANOMALY SET TO DIVE ACROSS  
THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY. MUCH OF THE PARENT JET ENERGY IS STILL  
OFFSHORE AND CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION REMAINS LOW. GENERAL  
TREND OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE WAS FOR A WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH  
SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH 12Z GFS STILL PAINTS A DECENT SWATH OF LIGHT  
SNOW ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. DID NOT CHANGE INHERITED  
FORECAST MUCH WITH MID TO HIGH RANGE CHANCE POPS. GIVEN SOUTHERN  
AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER TREND IN LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODELS...AS WELL  
AS POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S...SUSPECT ANY  
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND IMPACTS MINIMAL...IF AT ALL. WILL  
CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT THOUGH. STILL EXPECT PRECIP SHIELD  
OF LEAD WAVE TO STAY JUST E/SE OF OUR CWA BORDER MONDAY NIGHT BUT  
DID CARRY SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE LIMA AREA.  
 
REST OF THE LONG TERM RELATIVELY QUIET. AFTER A BRIEF SHOT OF WEAK  
CAA ON WED...STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO SHOOT INTO THE 50S BY FRIDAY  
GIVEN EASTWARD FOLD OF STOUT CENTRAL PLAINS RIDGE AND STRONG WAA. A  
FEW RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AS  
SURFACE LOW SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. POSTFRONTAL AIRMASS NOT  
PARTICULARLY COLDER AND APPEARS MILD WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH  
NEXT WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1147 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016  
 
AREA OF SNOW OVER IA/IL ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL VORT MAX AND  
LOW LEVEL WAA WILL MOVE EAST AND IMPACT THE TERMINALS THIS  
AFTN/EVE. SOME SHEARING OUT OF THE SYSTEM EXPECTED AS IT MOVES  
EAST OVER THE NEXT 24HRS AND INTO VERY DRY AIRMASS, SO STUCK WITH  
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR PER PREVIOUS TAFS AS OPPOSED TO LIFR  
WHICH CURRENTLY IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM IN IL/IA. WINDS WILL VEER  
FROM SE TO SOUTH AS A WK SFC TROF REFLECTION LIFTS NORTH ACROSS  
INDIANA TONIGHT. THIS WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE LOW  
CIGS MOVG INTO THE AREA WITH THE SNOW THIS AFTN TO PERSIST  
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.  
 

 
   
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IN...NONE.  
MI...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
LM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...JT  
SHORT TERM...JT  
LONG TERM...AGD  
AVIATION...JT  
 
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