086  
FXUS63 KIWX 310457  
AFDIWX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA  
1257 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 945 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016  
 
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY.  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS A COLD  
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID AIR WILL  
FILTER IN INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S  
WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 243 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016  
 
WEAK MCV WORKING INTO NW INDIANA. REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS  
FROM NEAR THE OFFICE SOUTHWEST TO KOKOMO AND POINT SW. SUBTLE  
HEATING ON THE EDGE OF CLOUD COVER HAS BEGUN TO ALLOW WIDELY  
SCATTERED STORMS TO POP. LOW LEVEL FLOW MEAGER WITH 850 MB WINDS  
AT BEST 15 KNOTS YIELDING A HEAVY RAIN THREAT INTO THIS EVENING  
ALONG AND EAST OF THIS AREA OF CONVERGENCE. GIVEN CONTINUED LOW  
LCLS AND NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES AROUND CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW FUNNEL  
CLOUDS AS SHOWERS/STORMS ARE DEVELOPING. AS FOR WESTERN AREAS,  
TOUGHER CALL WITH POTENTIAL FOR NO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT UNTIL FRONT  
ARRIVES TOWARDS MORNING. UPSTREAM TRENDS ACROSS ILLINOIS SHOWS A  
FEW CELLS POPPING ON LAKE BREEZE IN CHICAGO BUT DOUBT THAT WILL DO  
ANYTHING. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON LINE OF STORMS FROM  
MILWAUKEE TO JANESVILLE WI THAT WAS INTENSIFYING AND SLOWLY  
DROPPING SE. WILL JUST KEEP A GENERAL 30 POPS FOR MOST AREAS INTO  
THIS EVENING WITH TEMP DROP IN POPS 3 TO 6Z. AFTER THAT COLD FRONT  
WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH AND SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY  
WEDNESDAY. SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY  
IN THE AFTERNOON AS PEAK HEATING OCCURS. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS  
WITH A DRYING TREND NW TO SE.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 243 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016  
 
LONG TERM FAIRLY TRANQUIL AND MUCH LESS HUMID AS HIGH PRESSURE  
DOMINATES INTO AT LEAST MONDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DROP INTO  
THE NORTHERN LAKES WEDS NIGHT INTO EARLY THURS TO BRING A EVEN  
STRONGER PUSH OF DRY AIR. OUTSIDE CHANCE THIS COULD SPARK A SHOWER  
BUT WILL HOLD FOR NOW GIVEN LESS THAN STELLAR TIMING.  
 
OTHERWISE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN MAY ARRIVE SOMETIME NEXT WEEK AS  
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN STATES AND SERIES OF  
DISTURBANCES MOVE NE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1257 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016  
 
DIFFICULT/LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGH THIS MORNING GIVEN  
BR/STRATUS CONCERNS IN LIGHT WIND/AMPLE MOISTURE SETUP. A PERIOD  
OF IFR APPEARS MORE LIKELY AT KFWA GIVEN YESTERDAY'S HEAVY  
RAINFALL/HIGHER X-OVER VALUES...THOUGH MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL  
LIKELY PRECLUDE A MORE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG EVENT. THE MAIN CHANGE  
TO THE 06Z TAFS WAS TO TREND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH RESTRICTIONS AT  
MAINLY KFWA 10-14Z PER LATEST MOS TRENDS.  
 
MAINLY VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AS WINDS TURN NORTHERLY  
POST-FRONTAL AND DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS. OTHERWISE, COULD SEE AN  
ISOLATED STORM IN THE VICINITY OF KFWA THIS AFTERNOON NEAR  
ELEVATED PORTION OF FRONT.  
 

 
   
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH  
THURSDAY EVENING FOR INZ003.  
 
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY  
EVENING FOR MIZ077.  
 
OH...NONE.  
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT  
THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER  
SHORT TERM...FISHER  
LONG TERM...FISHER  
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL  
 
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX  
 
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:  
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA  
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX  
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA  
 
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