350  
FXUS63 KIWX 011055  
AFDIWX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA  
655 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014  
 
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER IOWA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE  
SOUTHEAST TO KENTUCKY BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN  
DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND DIMINISHING WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY...  
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY  
IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT  
AS THE HIGH PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN  
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S... RESULTING IN THE FIRST HARD FREEZE OF THE  
SEASON FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014  
 
STILL DEEPENING UPR LOW CONTG TO DIG SE ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS  
THIS MORNING. TRAILING TROF AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS ERN PORTION OF OUR  
CWA SUSTAINING SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW. THIS TROF WILL PUSH EAST OF  
THE CWA BY 12Z ENDING ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS NW OH. ANY  
LINGERING FLURRIES ACROSS THE FAR SE WILL END THIS MORNING AND CLOUD  
COVER WILL DECREASE AS DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG  
DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS BUILDS INTO OUR AREA. THERMAL TROF  
OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST BUT ENSURE ANOTHER DAY OF MUCH  
BLO NORMAL TEMPS DESPITE CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE... WITH HIGHS ONLY IN  
THE U30S/L40S. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT  
PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY  
BE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE CWA AS  
NNE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS SW WITH RIDGE PASSAGE. ALSO MODELS  
SUGGEST CIRRUS SPILLING OVER THE UPR RIDGE ACROSS MANITOBA/ND/MN  
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT. THIS HIGH CLOUD DECK  
PRBLY NOT WIDESPREAD OR THICK ENOUGH TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON  
RADIATIONAL COOLING... BUT MAY KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TO  
DEWPOINTS... STUCK WITH PREVIOUS FCST LOWS IN THE L-M20S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014  
 
THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD WEATHER WILL LIFT  
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MUCH WARMER AIR WILL  
SPREAD BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS  
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE ECMWF IS WARMER THAN THE GFS EARLY  
NEXT WEEK...WITH 850 MB TEMPS TOPPING 11C MONDAY. THEREFORE...RAISED  
HIGHS JUST A LITTLE MORE MONDAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES LIKELY  
RISING TO NEAR 60 DEGREES OVER SOUTHWEST AREAS. THE GFS AND THE  
ECMWF HAVE BEEN REASONABLY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN WITH THE  
TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING INTO THE AREA  
TUESDAY. KEPT LIKELY RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY OVER MOST OF THE AREA.  
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE ALL RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. FOR LATER IN  
THE WEEK...THE LATEST GFS ANALOGS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW  
NORMAL NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S THURSDAY  
AND FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH 850 MB  
TEMPS AROUND -6C THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUPPORT THESE COOL TEMPERATURES  
INDICATED BY THE GFS ANALOGS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 651 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014  
 
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS REMAIN OVER SRN MI/NRN INDIANA ON  
PERIPHERY OF CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING EAST COAST LOW.  
DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA  
FROM THE WEST SHOULD GRDLY DISSIPATE THE LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING  
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN/TNGT. GUSTY  
NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH TODAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND  
GRADIENT DECREASES.  
 

 
   
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IN...NONE.  
MI...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...JT  
SHORT TERM...JT  
LONG TERM...SKIPPER  
AVIATION...JT  
 
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)  
 
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