563  
FXUS63 KIWX 301803  
AFDIWX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA  
203 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016  
 
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE THIS  
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. OTHERWISE,  
EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S  
AND LOW 80S. THERE IS A MODERATE SWIM RISK FOR LAKE MICHIGAN  
BEACHES IN LAPORTE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH BREAKING WAVES AND  
CURRENTS EXPECTED. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS  
TONIGHT MAINLY NORTH OF I 80/90. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016  
 
COMBO OF STRATUS WEDGE ENTRENCHED ACRS THE CWA AND NWD PIVOT OF  
MID LVL CONVERGENCE ZONE LAST NIGHT INTO THE I-94 CORRIDOR IN MI  
CURTAILING FURTHER DVLPMNT SWD ACRS NRN IN/NW OH. FAILURE TO  
ATTAIN SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION ALG W/ABJECT LACK OF FORCING  
WARRANTS SCRAPPING POPS ALL TOGETHER TONIGHT SANS SRN MI COUNTIES  
IN PROXIMITY TO SRN MI CVRG ZONE. OTRWS THROUGH THIS AFTN XPC JUST  
SCT SHRA AND PERHAPS A FEW ISOLD TSRA AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO WARM  
OUT OF THE LOW-MID 70S CURRENTLY.  
 
EWD PIVOT OF PARENT SW OVR THE UPR MS VALLEY INTO THE ERN GRTLKS  
FOLLOWS ON SUN. SUSPECT CONSIDERABLE STATUS WEDGE WILL PERSIST  
WITHIN CONTD MOIST BNDRY LYR UNDERNEATH WKNG LL THERMAL INVERSION.  
SOME INSOLATION XPCD IN THE AFTN BUT LIKELY TOO LTL TOO LATE  
W/MINIMAL LINGERING MID LVL BASED FORCING AGAIN XPCD TO FAIL TO DVLP  
SHRA AND NO DOUBT REFLECTED IN SHARPLY DWINDLING MOS POPS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016  
 
STG RIDGING ALOFT XPCD TO BUILD NEWD INTO THE SRN LAKES THIS PD  
AS EAST CANADA TROUGHING BREAKS DOWN AT LEAST TEMPORARILY BFR  
REDVLPG TWD NXT WEEKEND. LG SCALE PATTN SIGNALS MULTIPLE CONV  
COMPLEXES LIKELY TO ARISE WITHIN NRN PERIPHERY OF SHARP LL THETA-E  
RIDGE THAT TAKES SHAPE ACRS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. WHILE  
TIMING/PLACEMENT DIFFICULTIES ABOUND WITHIN POORLY CLUSTERED MED  
RANGE SOLUTIONS...BROAD BRUSHED SHOTGUN POPS REMAIN WARRANTED LT  
TUE-FRI ALTHOUGH WILL CONT TO REFRAIN FROM SPURIOUS/NOISY BLENDED  
POPS.  
 

   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 627 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016  
 
LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG/STRATUS WERE WIDESPREAD ALONG AND  
SOUTH OF A PPO-FWA LINE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS UP  
TO THE MI BORDER. DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING SHOULD ALLOW CIGS/VSBYS  
TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY. SFC LOW AND AND UPR LEVEL TROF OVER  
THE AREA SHOULD CONT TO SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION, BECOMING MORE  
WIDESPREAD DURING PEAK HEATING. FLIGHT CONDITIONS COULD LOWER TO  
IFR IN THIS ACTIVITY, HWVR, LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS CONVECTION ACROSS  
NRN IN WILL BE FAIRLY SCT THIS AFTN, SO FOR NOW STUCK WITH VCTS IN  
TAFS. WITH NO SGFNT CHANGE IN AIRMASS TONIGHT, DIURNAL COOLING  
SHOULD LEAD TO FOG/STRATUS REDEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. MODELS/MOS  
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THIS REGARD SO LOWERED CONDITIONS IN  
TAFS TO IFR BY THIS TIME TOMORROW.  
 

 
   
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IN...NONE.  
MI...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
LM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...T  
SHORT TERM...T  
LONG TERM...T  
AVIATION...JT  
 
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