797  
FXUS63 KIWX 020001  
AFDIWX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA  
801 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 116 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY.  
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND ANY REMAINING CLOUD COVER WILL  
GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE  
UPPER 60S AND 70S. UNDER CLEAR SKIES, LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT  
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S. THERE IS A HIGH SWIM RISK FOR LAKE  
MICHIGAN BEACHES THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE LIFE  
THREATENING TO ANYONE WHO ENTERS THE WATER.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016  
 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SHORT WAVE PUSHING EASTWARD INTO THE  
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS COLD FRONT MOVING  
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATING DIMINISHING  
TRENDS IN STRATOCU CLOUD COVER AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE AS HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR A VERY  
PLEASANT START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. COOL DRY AIRMASS WILL HAVE  
TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR 50 TONIGHT AND COMFORTABLY IN THE 70S  
SATURDAY WITH LOW HUMIDITIES. STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE  
TN VALLEY EXTENDING BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO  
LIFT NORTHWARD AS FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE  
ENERGY EJECTING EASTWARD FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. STILL ALOT  
OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY WITH MODELS IN HANDLING THE EVOLUTION OF  
THIS SYSTEM FOR TIMING...PLACEMENT...AND STRENGTH. BY 12Z  
SUNDAY...SOLUTIONS HAVE FRONTAL WAVE RANGING ANYWHERE FROM WESTERN  
MO AND CENTRAL KS DOWN TO OK AND NORTHERN TX WITH SOME HAVING  
NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIP ENTERING OUR FAR SW CWA BY THIS TIME. PLAN  
IS TO STAY THE COURSE WITH GOING FORECAST AND INTRODUCE POPS  
BEGINNING 12Z SUN IN SW CWA AND KEEP IN CHANCE RANGE WITH FOCUS OF  
HIGHER POPS IN THE SOUTH...DEVIATING FROM THE BLEND WHICH EXTENDS  
POPS TOO FAR NORTH TOO QUICKLY AND HAS LIKELY IN THE SOUTH.  
POTENT THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDING UP INTO CENTRAL INDIANA WILL BE  
COINCIDENT WITH PW EXCEEDING 2 INCHES WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR  
A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX PRODUCING A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT...NOT  
ANTICIPATING IT EXTENDING UP INTO OUR AREA AT THIS TIME BUT  
CERTAINLY NEEDS MONITORING IF MODELS SHOW ANY NORTHWARD TRENDS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016  
 
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE EXIT OF FRONTAL WAVE...MOVING  
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
TUESDAY. WILL TREND PRECIP CHANCES ACCORDINGLY WITH DRY IN THE NW  
MONDAY NIGHT AND ENTIRE CWA TUESDAY AND TUE NIGHT. REMAINDER OF  
THE EXTENDED STILL UP IN THE AIR AS MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER  
VARYING SOLUTIONS. GFS...OPERATIONAL AND GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE  
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...STILL BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WHILE ECMWF  
CONTINUES TO HINT AT NORTHERN STREAM DIPPING DOWN INTO THE  
REGION. RESULT HAS BLEND GOING WITH LOW CHANCE POPS DAYS 5-7 WITH  
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AS HIGHS GET UP TOWARD 90 AND  
65-70 DEWPOINTS WILL HAVE OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016  
 
VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH THE PD AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS ACRS THE  
GRTLAKES.  
 

 
   
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR INZ003.  
 
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR MIZ077.  
 
OH...NONE.  
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...MCD  
SHORT TERM...JAL  
LONG TERM...JAL  
AVIATION...T  
 
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