295  
FXUS63 KIWX 250521  
AFDIWX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA  
120 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.  
LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S TO AROUND 60. HIGHS  
ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. CHANCES FOR  
RAIN SHOWERS RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, WITH BREEZY  
AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT MONDAY INTO  
TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016  
 
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOWED MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE BASE OF A LARGE  
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH A COOL EAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. LAKE  
CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS WERE MOVING  
SOUTHWEST ACROSS LAKE ERIE TOWARD NORTHWEST OHIO EARLY THIS  
AFTERNOON. THE STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION WILL GREATLY LIMIT ANY  
SHOWERS; THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA.  
HOWEVER, CLOUDS MAY LINGER WELL INTO THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF  
NORTHWEST OHIO. OTHERWISE, SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT  
WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING WELL INTO THE 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD BE  
MOSTLY IN THE 70S WITH AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. THERE IS A SMALL  
CHANCE FOR A SHOWER NEAR THE ILLINOIS BORDER LATE IN THE DAY AS A  
FRONT APPROACHES.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016  
 
A FAIRLY VIGOROUS UPPER TROF WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED SUNDAY  
NIGHT AND WILL TRIGGER A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS AS  
THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVE EAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES  
PER BUFKIT WILL TOP 2.0 INCHES AS A NARROW AXIS OF MOISTURE SPREADS  
NORTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE ONGOING TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND  
STORMS APPEARS ON TRACK FOR A MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT EVENT. THE CHANCES  
FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS GIVEN VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY; HOWEVER,  
LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD REACH 25 M/S.  
 
CHILLY AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTH BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES  
BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. VERY WARM LAKE  
TEMPERATURES WILL FAVOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AS  
DELTA T VALUES APPROACH OR EXCEED 15C.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016  
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER LATE PERIOD  
MOISTURE SURGE AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT ADVANCING EASTWARD OUT OF  
THE PLAINS PROMISES A PERIOD OF MVFR REDUCTION. IMPLIED HIGHRES  
MODEL TIMING THOUGH IS QUITE DISPARATE AND OTHER THAN A VCTS MENTION  
INVOF KSBN BY MID EVENING WILL DEFER TO 12Z FCST FOR POTENTIAL TEMPO  
GROUP INCLUSION.  
 

 
   
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IN...NONE.  
MI...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
LM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY  
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER  
LONG TERM...SKIPPER  
AVIATION...T  
 
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