824  
FNUS73 KSGF 191251  
FWSSGF  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR CARMAN...USFS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
751 AM CDT THU APR 19 2018  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1600 CDT ON APRIL 18.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
 
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT 1-800-762-4363, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
A STEADY NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE  
AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT AND SHIFT TO THE EAST FOR FRIDAY. SHOWERS  
ARE LIKELY THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW  
AVERAGE.  
 
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).  
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 56.  
RH..................MIN 38 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............29 INCREASING TO 32 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
APPARENT TEMP.......29.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTH WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH.  
WIND SHIFT..........  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300-4200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4400-5000 FT AGL  
IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 15 TO 20 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD TO EXCELLENT (36800-68500 KNOT-FT).  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD TO EXCELLENT (36800-68500 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (CDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM  
SKY (%).........33 52 47 42 37 35 33 31 24 16 9 5  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............37 38 40 43 45 47 50 53 54 55 55 54  
DEWPOINT........27 27 27 28 28 29 30 31 31 31 32 32  
RH..............67 64 59 55 51 49 46 43 41 40 41 43  
APARNT TMP (F)..29 31 34 38 40 43 46 53 54 55 55 54  
20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N N N N N N N N N  
20 FT WIND SPD..7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 10  
EYE LVL WND DIR.N N N N N N N N N N N N  
EYE LVL WND SPD.5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4  
EYE LVL WND GST.10 10 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 10  
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.3 2.9 3.4 3.7 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 4.9 5.0 4.8  
TRANSP WIND DIR.N N N N N N N N N N NE NE  
TRANSP WIND SPD.18 20 20 20 20 18 17 16 16 15 15 15  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2  
VRATE KT-FT/100037 49 57 64 69 68 66 65 68 64 65 62  
SDSPL KT-FT/100037 49 57 64 69 68 66 65 68 64 65 62  
   
THURSDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-5 PERCENT). AREAS OF FROST EARLY IN  
THE MORNING.  
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 35.  
RH..................MAX 82 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............31.  
APPARENT TEMP.......34.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE  
EVENING BECOMING LIGHT.  
WIND SHIFT..........  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE  
EVENING BECOMING LIGHT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000-4300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-1500 FT AGL  
FROM MID EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 5 TO 14 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 3  
MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (1700-51200 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO  
POOR TO POOR (0-1000 KNOT-FT) IN THE LATE  
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (1700-51200 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO  
POOR TO POOR (0-1000 KNOT-FT) IN THE LATE  
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (CDT) 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM  
SKY (%).........2 2 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 3  
WEATHER COV..... ARS ARS ARS  
WEATHER TYPE.... FST FST FST  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............53 50 47 45 43 42 40 39 39 38 37 37  
DEWPOINT........32 32 31 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 31 31  
RH..............44 50 53 60 65 67 73 76 76 79 79 79  
APARNT TMP (F)..53 48 46 45 43 42 40 37 37 36 34 34  
20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE  
20 FT WIND SPD..4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2  
20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5  
EYE LVL WND DIR.NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE  
EYE LVL WND SPD.3 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2  
EYE LVL WND GST.5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5  
MIX HGT (KFT)...4.3 3.0 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1  
TRANSP WIND DIR.NE NE NE NE NE E E NE NE NE NE NE  
TRANSP WIND SPD.14 12 8 6 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 3  
HAINES INDEX....2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4  
VRATE KT-FT/100051 30 11 2 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0  
SDSPL KT-FT/100051 30 11 2 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT). AREAS OF FROST EARLY IN  
THE MORNING.  
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 63.  
RH..................MIN 26 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............30.  
APPARENT TEMP.......37.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 7 MPH.  
WIND SHIFT..........  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 7 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3000-4400 FT AGL  
IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 5 TO 14 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 14  
TO 16 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (800-49300 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO  
GOOD TO EXCELLENT (40900-61300 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (800-49300 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO  
GOOD TO EXCELLENT (40900-61300 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (CDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM  
SKY (%).........2 2 2 1 2 3 4 4 4 4 6 10  
WEATHER COV.....ARS  
WEATHER TYPE....FST  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............39 42 47 51 55 58 60 62 63 63 62 60  
DEWPOINT........31 32 32 32 32 31 30 29 28 28 29 30  
RH..............73 67 56 48 41 36 32 28 26 26 28 32  
APARNT TMP (F)..37 38 44 51 55 58 60 62 63 63 62 60  
20 FT WIND DIR..NE E E E E E E E E E E E  
20 FT WIND SPD..2 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10  
EYE LVL WND DIR.NE E E E E E E E E E E E  
EYE LVL WND SPD.2 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4  
EYE LVL WND GST.5 5 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.2 1.0 2.1 3.0 3.5 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.3 3.9 3.3  
TRANSP WIND DIR.NE NE E E E E E E SE SE SE E  
TRANSP WIND SPD.5 7 12 14 15 15 15 16 16 16 15 14  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4  
VRATE KT-FT/10001 6 21 36 45 49 52 58 61 60 53 41  
SDSPL KT-FT/10001 6 21 36 45 49 52 58 61 60 53 41  
 

 
FORECASTER...FOSTER  
REQUESTED BY...CHARLENE NAZARENKO  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 1806981.0/SGF  
.EMAIL MOMOCDISPATCH@FS.FED.US  
 
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