226  
FXUS63 KEAX 201710  
AFDEAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO  
1210 PM CDT MON AUG 20 2018  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT MON AUG 20 2018  
 
THE POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH, WHICH CAUSED THE OFF-AND-ON RAIN OVER  
THE LAST 12-16 HOURS IS CONTINUING ITS PUSH TO THE EAST THIS AM.  
CURRENTLY THE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE KS/MO/NE COMMON BORDER  
REGION. ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THE ANATOMY OF THIS TROUGH IS  
CLEARLY EVIDENT WITH THE MOIST CONVEYOR BELT CONTINUING  
PRECIPITATION OVER FAR NORTHERN MO INTO IOWA AND NEBRASKA. ALSO  
EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY THIS HOUR IS THE VERY PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT  
PUNCHING THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA AND PUSHING  
NORTH/NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI. THIS  
DRY SLOT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MORE TRUNCATED RAINFALL  
TOTALS SOUTH OF HWY 36. WHILE SOME AREAS SOUTH OF HWY 36 DID  
RECEIVE 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN, MOST AREAS SAW LESS THAN AN INCH. ON  
THE BACKSIDE OF THIS TROUGH, A FAIRLY THICK LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL  
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY, AND SOME LIGHT OFF-AND-ON SHOWERS WILL  
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH MORE  
ACCUMULATION, BUT SPITS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT  
12-24 HOURS. AT THE SURFACE, ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAIRLY POTENT LOW  
LEVEL CYCLONE, ALSO CENTERED IN THE KS/MO/NE COMMON BORDER  
REGIONS. AS THE TIGHT SURFACE CYCLONE PUSHES E/NE THROUGH THE DAY  
THE BETTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE WILL ALSO MOVE INTO  
THE AREA. THIS WILL MANIFEST ITSELF WITH INCREASING WINDS THROUGH  
THE MORNING HOURS AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT NW WINDS IN THE  
15 TO 25 MPH RANGE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. BY TONIGHT THE TROUGH  
WILL CLEAR THE AREA AND WE ENTER A PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER FOR THE  
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.  
 
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL REMAIN RATHER MILD, ESPECIALLY FOR  
MID/LATE AUGUST, WHEN DAILY NORMAL HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MIDDLE  
TO UPPER 80S. SURFACE RIDGING WILL AFFECT THE AREA WITH COOLER AND  
DRIER AIR. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY BRING AN ANOMALOUSLY COOL COUPLE  
DAYS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THAT SURFACE RIDGE TAKES HOLD  
THE AREA. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS ON TUE-THU TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER  
70S TO LOWER 80S, NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WITH THE SURFACE  
RIDGE SOLIDLY IN PLACE AND WITH ANY DISCERNIBLE BOUNDARY WELL TO  
THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO CHANCE  
FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE TUE-THU TIMEFRAME. MID LEVEL RIDGING  
FURTHER SUPPRESSES THE CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THIS TIME. BY  
FRIDAY THOUGH, THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EAST, AND SOUTHERLY RETURN  
FLOW MOVES IN WITH WARMER AND MOISTER AIR. EXPECT HIGHS FOR FRIDAY  
THROUGH SUNDAY TO REFLECT MORE OF A NORMAL PROFILE FOR LATE  
AUGUST, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. THE NEXT  
APPRECIABLE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME FRIDAY, AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA, KICKING OFF A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT MON AUG 20 2018  
 
A SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST ACROSS  
THE TERMINALS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING THE THREAT OF  
SHOWERS, ALONG WITH LOW END MVFR TO IFR CIGS, TO THE REGION  
THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, EXPECT CIGS TO SLOWLY LIFT AND/OR  
BREAK UP AS THE PARENT LOW SHIFTS EAST.  
 

 
   
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...LEIGHTON  
AVIATION...CUTTER  
 
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