104  
FXUS63 KEAX 230810  
AFDEAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO  
310 AM CDT TUE MAY 23 2017  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT TUE MAY 23 2017  
 
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER OVER  
THE NEXT TWO DAYS EXTENDS FROM FROM MN TO THE TX PANHANDLE, WITH  
MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH IT NOTED VIA THE VARIOUS  
GOES-16 WATER VAPOR CHANNELS. ONE OF THESE EMBEDDED WAVES WAS OVER  
SOUTHERN TO EASTERN NE EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE  
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THIS MAY SPREAD SOME SHOWERS TO THE  
AREA THIS MORNING AS A RESULT. THE NEXT EMBEDDED WAVE CAN BE SEEN  
ALONG THE SD/MN STATE LINE AND SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE AREA BY THE  
AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE IS VERY NEAR THE MAIN UPPER LOW AND AS THIS  
WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA, SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE LIKELY TO  
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN MO AND THEN BUILD SOUTHWARD WITH TIME.  
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT 100 TO 200 J/KG CAPE WITH A LOW  
FREEZING LEVEL AND LOW EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL. WHILE CONVECTION WILL BE  
SHALLOW/LOW TOPPED, FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 6000 TO 7000 FT SUGGEST  
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL. FOR WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL  
HAVE SHIFTED INTO EASTERN MO OR IL BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A SIMILAR  
SCENARIO TO TUESDAY SHOULD SET UP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE  
FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THOUGH SUGGEST WEAKER, SHALLOWER  
INSTABILITY SO THINK THE CHANCES FOR ANY THUNDER ARE LOWER. SO  
FOR WEDNESDAY IT LOOKS MORE LIKE DIURNAL SHOWERS.  
 
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TO NORMAL TO  
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING THROUGH  
THE AREA ON THURSDAY WILL HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE  
MID TO UPPER 70S, CLOSE TO NORMAL. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE  
TEMPERATURE FORECAST GETS A LITTLE MORE CHALLENGING AS THERE IS  
SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF SURFACE FEATURES. FOR  
FRIDAY, THE GFS AND THE CANADIAN SHOW THE FORECAST AREA NORTH OF A  
WEAK FRONT. THIS RESULTS IN COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES COMPARED TO THE ECMWF WHICH SHOWS THE FRONT  
FURTHER NORTH. MODELS THEN REMAIN OUT OF SYNC THROUGH SATURDAY AND  
SUNDAY WITH THE GFS ACTUALLY MOVING A STRONG CONVECTIVE SYSTEM  
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. SOME AGREEMENT HAPPENS TO RETURN TO THE  
MODELS BY SUNDAY WITH THE AREA GENERALLY IN A POST-FRONTAL REGIME  
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE GFS THOUGH  
CONTINUES TO TRY TO MOVE PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA WHILE THE  
ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN STAY DRY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2017  
 
PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT  
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER UNTIL LIFTING SLIGHTLY TUESDAY  
MORNING. THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL  
TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. ADDITIONAL  
PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH  
ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET. ASIDE FROM THE OVERNIGHT  
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED,  
THOUGH LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE  
FORECAST PERIOD.  
 

 
   
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...CDB  
AVIATION...WELSH  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab MO Page
The Nexlab KS Page Main Text Page