121  
FXUS63 KEAX 172320  
AFDEAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO  
520 PM CST SAT FEB 17 2018  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT |319 PM CST SAT FEB 17 2018  
 
CONDITIONS HAVE DRIED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNNY SKIES HAVE ALLOW  
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. THE DRY CONDITIONS  
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AS STRONG WAA WILL GET UNDERWAY.  
EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS TOMORROW BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH WITH  
GUSTS TO 35 MPH ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID 50S TO  
LOWER 60S. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR  
TOMORROW ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP FROM  
REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER, BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.  
 
AN ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO SET UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND  
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THE MAIN FORECAST DRIVER WILL  
BE A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTH INTO THE  
ROCKIES TOMORROW FORCING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. WAA SHOWERS  
ARE EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  
THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH THESE WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AS  
MUCAPE VALUES OF 300-500J/KG FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MAY  
PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR STORMS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL  
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE ROCKIES MONDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE  
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SLOWLY INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MAY  
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR STORMS DURING THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT  
WILL CREATE QUITE A TEMPERATURE SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY WITH  
HIGHS IN NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI ONLY REACHING THE MID-40S WHILE THE  
AREAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REACH THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70. MONDAY  
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, ADDITIONAL LEAD SHORTWAVES WILL PUSH THROUGH  
THE CWA PROVIDING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES  
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT AND IN THESE  
AREAS, PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL IN FORM OF FREEZING RAIN. THE  
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY WITH  
AREAS TRANSITIONING FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT.  
PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH LIGHT SNOW  
MAY LINGER ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN CWA INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGHS  
WILL BE MUCH COOLER BY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID  
30S.  
 
BY THE END OF THE WEEK MODELS ARE ADVERTISING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL  
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THIS SOLUTION WOULD BRING ANOTHER  
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION LATE WEEK. AT THIS TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE A SNOW  
TO RAIN EVENT ON FRIDAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE  
LOW TO MID 40S AND RISE INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ON FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 519 PM CST SAT FEB 17 2018  
 
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS AT TERMINALS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY  
OVERNIGHT AND STRENGTHEN AROUND SUNRISE, WITH GUSTS REACHING AT OR  
ABOVE 30 KTS AT TIMES.  
 

 
   
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...73  
AVIATION...BLAIR  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab MO Page
The Nexlab KS Page Main Text Page