849  
FXUS63 KEAX 262030  
AFDEAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO  
330 PM CDT WED JUL 26 2017  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED JUL 26 2017  
 
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED  
THROUGH THE DAY LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO A MID/UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS  
CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA THIS HOUR. THE AXIS OF THIS  
TROUGH APPEARS TO BE OVER CENTRAL IOWA AND NORTH CENTRAL AND  
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WITH TIME. AHEAD OF THE MAIN CLOUD  
SHIELD TEMPERATURES HAVE CONTINUE TO RISE TO AROUND 90 DEGREES  
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR  
ML CAPE VALUES TO RISE INTO THE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE, AND MAY  
TRIGGER SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. THIS  
LIKELIHOOD IS LOW MAINLY DUE TO SURFACE WINDS ALREADY VEERING  
THAT AREA, BUT ITS STILL WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON THAT AREA FOR  
LATER DEVELOPMENT. BEHIND THE CLOUDS TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED  
TO MAKE IT TO 80 DEGREES, THUS THE HEAT ADVISORY CONCERNS HAVE  
BEEN MINIMIZED AND THE HEAT ADVISORY CANCELLED EARLIER IN THE DAY.  
ALSO BEHIND THIS AREA OF CLOUDS HAVE GENERALLY MITIGATED THE  
DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN THIS AREA, AND MINIMIZED THE  
CHANCES FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER LATER THIS EVENING. DESPITE THE  
MINIMIZED SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WILL  
BE THE MAIN PLAYER FOR ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED  
OVER SE NEBRASKA AND WILL SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND  
OVERNIGHT. H85 WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL PICK UP LATER  
TONIGHT AND BE ORIENTED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.  
THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE A SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT  
LATER TONIGHT, MAINLY ALONG THE HWY 36 CORRIDOR, AND MORE  
GENERALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MISSOURI. PWAT VALUES IN THE  
2 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE WILL MAKE FOR EFFICIENT RAIN RATES AND  
PERHAPS SOME TRAINING OF STORMS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS  
APPROACHING 1 TO 2 INCHES, WITH PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS OR  
NARROW CORRIDORS HAVING HIGHER THAN 2 INCH AMOUNTS. FLASH FLOOD  
GUIDANCE ACROSS THAT REGION AROUND 3 INCHES FOR 3 HOURS HAVE  
PRECLUDED MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONCERN FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH  
FLOODING, BUT CONSIDERING THE CONDITIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND  
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS HAVE KEPT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN  
EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  
 
ONCE THESE STORMS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND THE BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH  
COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND  
THE WEEKEND. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF  
NEXT WEEK, BUT AT THIS TIME IT'S LOOKING LIKE LOW END CHANCES  
ACROSS THE REGION.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED JUL 26 2017  
 
LIGHT SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO AND OUT OF THE TERMINALS  
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTER A BREAK IN THE RAIN LATER THIS  
EVENING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE  
TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS AT THE TERMINALS IS LOW TO MEDIUM  
AT THIS POINT SO WILL CONTINUE WITH VCTS MENTION FOR NOW. AFTER  
RAIN DEPARTS THE TERMINALS FOR GOOD EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS  
THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MOZ001>008-  
011>017-023>025.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...LEIGHTON  
AVIATION...LEIGHTON  
 
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