139
FXUS63 KEAX 261121
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
621 AM CDT FRI APR 26 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS MORNING. A FEW MAY BE ON THE STRONG
SIDE BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
- POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
SUPERCELLS WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE.
- ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS MAINLY SATURDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD. HEAVY
RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT FRI APR 26 2024
TODAY - TONIGHT: AN AREA OF STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT, NOTED ON THE
300K AND 305K SURFACES, WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS AREA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE
EAST/ NORTHEAST AFTER SUNRISE WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT WEAKENING
AS IT DOES. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN OVERALL DECREASE IN COVERAGE
FROM LATE IN THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. IT'S POSSIBLE THE
AFTERNOON REMAINS DRY FOR MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER, THERE IS AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE AREA AND CONTINUED
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH WEAKER AND BROADER ASCENT WHICH
MAY KEEP SOME SHOWERS AND A STORMS GOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
GIVEN THAT POTENTIAL, WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING THROUGH THE
DAY.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A MODIFIED DRYLINE WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN KS
THIS AFTERNOON AND STALL JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S, AND WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT, MODERATELY STRONG CAPE WILL BE ABLE TO
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER
BUT EVEN WITH SOME CLOUD COVER, THE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION COUPLED
WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT FROM THE CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA, WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR ORIENTATION CONTINUES TO BE NEARLY ORTHOGONAL TO
THE INITIATING BOUNDARY SO THAT IF STORMS DO DEVELOP, THEY WILL
TEND TO BE MORE DISCREET AND GIVEN THE PARAMETERS, WILL BE
SUPERCELLS WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE. WHILE THE PARAMETERS DO
LOOK QUIET STRONG, WITH LARGE, LOOPING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS, THE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE. THE UPPER JET STREAK
ISN'T SYNCED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FAVORABLE PARAMETERS. IN FACT,
WE'RE ALMOST IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND
NEARLY HAVE CONFLUENCE AT THAT LEVEL. THIS IS ONE PARAMETER THAT
COULD LEAD TO UNDERPERFORMANCE OF THIS EVENT. HOWEVER, IF THE
UPPER JET STRUCTURE BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE, SEVERE STORMS BECOME
FAR MORE LIKELY/ NUMEROUS AND GIVEN THE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR, TORNADOES LOOK VERY POSSIBLE. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
FAVOR LARGE HAIL. DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND THE STRONG KINEMATICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM.
SATURDAY - SATURDAY NIGHT: THE MODIFIED DRYLINE WILL RETREAT
WESTWARD OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY FROM SOUTHEASTERN TO
SOUTH CENTRAL KS. ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KS AND NORTHWESTERN MO,
THIS OCCLUDES WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT WHICH THEN EXTENDS
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL KS WITH THE SURFACE LOW IN THE
VICINITY OF SOUTHWESTERN KS/SOUTHEASTERN CO/ NW OK BY 12Z
SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY LOW- LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WE'LL SEE
DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THE PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION INTO THE AREA, COUPLED WITH CONTINUED STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN AN EVEN MORE UNSTABLE AIR
MASS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THERE WILL BE
CAPPING IN PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS SO A GOOD CHUNK OF
THE DAY SATURDAY LOOKS DRY. BUT IF THAT CAP IS ERODED AND
CONVECTION DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS,
A FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH ALL
HAZARD TYPES POSSIBLE. WHILE THIS IS POSSIBLE, IT SEEMS UNLIKELY
GIVEN THE CAP. THE MORE FAVORABLE AREA FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP
WILL BE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA, JUST EAST OF THE BOUNDARY
THAT RETREATED EARLIER IN THE DAY, AND GROW UPSCALE ACROSS
EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MODELS SHOW STRONG 0-3KM SHEAR DEVELOPING IN PROXIMITY TO
THIS POTENTIAL MCS AND AS A RESULT, THERE'S A GOOD CHANCE FOR
OVERNIGHT SEVERE STORMS WITH A RISK MESOVORTICES AND ASSOCIATED
TORNADO DEVELOPMENT AND DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE AMPLE PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.5" ACROSS EASTERN KS
AND WESTERN MO DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN FACT,
WIDESPREAD 1-2" RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH 60- 70% PROBABILITIES
OF EXCEEDING 1" IN THE 24HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z SUNDAY. THERE
ARE SMALLER PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDANCE AT 3" AND EVEN A VERY
SMALL PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 4 INCHES. WHILE THESE HIGHER RAIN
AMOUNTS ARE UNLIKELY OVER A LARGER AREA, THERE MAY BE SOME
ISOLATED AMOUNTS PUSHING THAT GIVEN THE SMALL PROBABILITIES
DEPICTED BY THE ENSEMBLES.
SUNDAY - SUNDAY NIGHT: SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY
AS BOTH THE SATURDAY NIGHT ACTIVITY MOVES EAST AND NEW
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WILL SLOWLY MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAKER THAN THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS RESULTING IN
A LOWER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. BY SUNDAY NIGHT, THE
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA AND THAT WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT, WE'LL HAVE AT
LEAST A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL THE NEXT
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
NEXT WEEK: UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND
THAT WILL PUSH A FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN MO. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MODELS SUGGEST THE REGION WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH 30-40 KTS
OF SHEAR. GIVEN THIS, CAN'T RULE OUT ADDITIONAL STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS. FINALLY BY THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME
FRAME, A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION AND BRING
IN A DRIER AIR MASS. THIS WILL FINALLY LEAD TO QUIETER WEATHER
CONDITIONS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT FRI APR 26 2024
LGT SHRA AND OCNL ISOL EMBD TS CONT TO BACK BUILD INTO THE VC
OF TAF SITES AND WILL REMAIN IN THE VC TIL 14Z. OTRW...LOW MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED THRU 20Z-21Z WHEN THEY WILL LIFT TO BTN 2-3KFT
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VC THRU 00Z-01Z. BYD
00Z-01Z...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED WITH SCT CLOUDS BTN 2-3KFT.
WINDS TO BEGIN THE PD WILL BE OUT OF THE SE BTN 15-20KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 25-30KTS BUT WILL VEER TO THE SSE BY 14Z. BY
20Z-21Z...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY WHILE REMAINING GUSTY.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...73
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