048  
FXUS63 KEAX 222320  
AFDEAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO  
520 PM CST WED NOV 22 2017  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST WED NOV 22 2017  
 
THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER QUIET,  
WITH TEMPERATURES BOUNCING UP AND DOWN AS A COUPLE OF DRY COLD  
FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER BASIN,  
THUS MAKING HOLIDAY TRAVEL ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION FREE OF WEATHER  
CONCERNS.  
 
THIS AFTERNOON...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BIT OF AN AMPLIFIED  
PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NATION WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND  
A GENERAL 500MB WEAKNESS PREVAILING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS  
RESULTING FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE TO OUR  
WEST. THE RESULTING NORTHWEST FLOW HELPED PUSH THROUGH A DRY COLD  
FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN OUR COOL TEMPERATURES  
TODAY. HOWEVER, THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL HELP LIFT TEMPERATURES  
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO  
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BIG RESULT FROM  
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL START WARMING OVER  
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS; WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE 50S, AND IN  
THE 60S FRIDAY. IN FACT, WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO TIP-TOE UP TO 70  
DEGREES FRIDAY AS BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE  
REGION. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 50S  
FOR THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE DRY COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY.  
 
OF CONCERN FOR FRIDAY...WILL BE THE HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER  
CONCERNS. THE WIND WILL PREVAIL FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY,  
AHEAD OF THE DRY COLD FRONT, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 15 MPH  
AND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. THE BREEZY WIND, WHEN COMBINED WITH  
LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES, LIKELY TO DROP TO BETWEEN 30% AND  
40%, WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF OUTDOOR FIRES SPREADING QUICKLY  
IF THEY ARE NOT CAREFULLY CONTROLLED. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND  
LOWER WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE DRY COLD FRONT WILL PREVENT THIS  
THREAT FROM CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 
OTHERWISE...FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK TEMPERATURES  
WILL BE ON A SLIGHT TREND UP AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN LATE IN THE  
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY, AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH THAT WILL DRAG A  
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS NEXT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TIMING  
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN, BUT THE GENERAL  
TREND SEEMS TO SWEEP THE FRONT THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN  
MISSOURI BEFORE ENOUGH MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTH TO GENERATE ANY FORM  
OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR SECTION OF MISSOURI. CURRENTLY, LATEST  
MODEL RUNS INDICATE THAT THE CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH THE FRONT WILL  
LIKELY DEVELOP JUST EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST WED NOV 22 2017  
 
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE  
TAF PERIOD. WINDS MAY VEER JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST  
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY, BUT AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10  
KTS.  
 

 
   
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...CUTTER  
AVIATION...LAFLIN  
 
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