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FXUS63 KEAX 091129
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
529 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2010
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
THE COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS SAGGED SSE TO ALONG THE MO/IA BDR
NORTH OF KSTJ EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE SNOW COMING TO AN END IN
THE ERN GRIDS AS THE DRY SLOT WORKS ITS WAY INTO ERN MO. THE CLR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE SNOW COVER HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS. STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS HAVE SURGED INTO NWRN
MO...FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW...WITH WIND CHILLS OVER XTRM
NWRN MO FM -10 TO -15. THE STRONG NW WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT SE ACR
THE ENTIRE CWA...POTENTIALLY CAUSING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. DO NOT
PLAN AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. FOR THE TIME BEING WILL CONFINED THE
BLOWING SNOW TO THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA WHERE THE RECENT SNOWS
HAVE BEEN THE HEAVIEST. LATER SHIFTS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO FINE TUNE
THIS REGION AS WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
INDICATED. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT BLOWING SNOW MAY
STILL BE A PROBLEM FOR THE ERN GRIDS THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...MOISTURE WILL WRAP CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW TODAY...YIELDING PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW FOR EXTREME NERN MO WITH
FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. AS THE LOW PULLS EAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING...THE FLURRIES WILL END IN CENTRAL AND NERN MO THIS EVENING.
SFC RIDGE TO BUILD INTO MO ON WED WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE.
GIVEN THE SNOW PACK AND TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM...GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO
WARM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
DB
AVIATION
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...CENTER OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
PASSING JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. DRY AIR
WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE
TERMINALS AT THIS TIME...THOUGH THERE IS SOME CLOUD COVER TO BE HAD
EVEN IN THIS DRY AIR MASS. WHAT CLOUDS ARE PRESENT ABOVE THE
TERMINALS AT THIS TIME ARE IN THE VFR RANGE...BUT LOOKING UPSTREAM
MVFR CLOUDS ARE NOTED ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD INTO THE TERMINALS DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS. ALONG WITH
THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD ARRIVE GUSTY WINDS RESULTING FROM THE PASSAGE
OF THE LOW. EXPECT GUSTY SURFACE WINDS TO DIE DOWN THIS EVENING AS
THE LOW PULLS EAST. OTHERWISE...WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD POOL
ALOFT WITH THE LOW...EXPECT SOME FLURRIES TO FORM IN ANY CLOUDS THAT
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...SO HAVE PUT SOME VFR LIGHT SNOW IN THE
TERMINAL OBSERVATIONS AS A HEADS UP.
CUTTER
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
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