353
FXUS63 KEAX 040438
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1038 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2009
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS DEALS WITH TIMING OF AN UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND
THEN TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK.
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT:
A SHORTWAVE...EVIDENT VIA WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WAS MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WAS
NOTED ON REGIONAL RADARS/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND CLIP NORTHERN
TO NORTHEAST MISSOURI. AS IT DOES A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES. TIMING THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA MOVES IT EAST
OF US BY MIDNIGHT OR SO...ENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. MODELS SHOW WINDS
NOT COMPLETELY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
SOMEWHAT MIXED. DESPITE CLEARING SKIES AND DRY AIR LOWS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED TO CRASH LIKE THEY DID LAST NIGHT. SO GENERALLY BLENDED
LOWS FROM THE COLDER NAM AND THE WARMER GFS...WHICH GIVES LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
BROAD SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TOMORROW IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE. WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND DECENT MIXING TO ABOUT
900MB TO 875MB SOME GUSTIER NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 MPH RANGE ARE LIKELY.
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAILING AND THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA CLOSER THE UPPER LOW DO NOT BELIEVE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AS WARM AS PREVIOUS DAYS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN
ZONES. THE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD TEND TO KEEP SUPPRESS CLOUD COVER SO
SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW...WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE
LIKELY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A CHILLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR FREEZING WITH VALLEY AREAS SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER AND THE METRO AREA A BIT WARMER. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF
THE AREA SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IT WILL TAKE ANOTHER DAY TO REALLY ADVECT WARMER
AIR ALOFT AND WITH LIMITED MIXING DEPTH...HIGHS SHOULD BE HELD TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES.
CDB
MEDIUM RANGE (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
MID RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE
WEATHER OVER THE LAST HALF OF THE FORECAST...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. THE MODESTLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION THIS WORK
WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS
ADJUSTMENT IN THE PATTERN WILL LEAVE THE STRONG WESTERLIES RESIDING
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS.
WITH REPEATED RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS...HAVE GONE AHEAD
AND CONTINUED THE TREND OF BUMPING TEMPERATURES UP FOR THE WEEKEND.
CURRENT FORECAST NUMBERS ARE CLOSEST TO THE VALUES ADVERTISED ON THE
HI SIDE OF THE ENSEMBLES NUMBERS...WHICH MEANS THAT WE MIGHT SEE
AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 70 ACROSS MOST AREAS AT SOME POINT THIS
WEEKEND.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION...A SURFACE HIGH WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTH THIS
WORK WEEK AND TAKE UP RESIDENCE ALONG THE GULF COAST BY THIS
WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A LACK OF MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE DEEP LAYER STUFF GETS BOTTLED UP IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GULF. SO...WHILE THE GFS ADVERTISES SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WITH SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION FRIDAY...HAVE OPTED TO
LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION POSSIBILITIES FOR THE FAR SIDE OF THE
WEEKEND ARE A DIFFERENT ISSUE. A TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A BUCKLING IN THE WESTERLIES LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. RESULTING ADJUSTMENT IN THE FLOW SHOULD BACK OUR
WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTHWEST...AND FORCE THE GULF COAST HIGH FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW FOR DECENT MOISTURE RETURN. RESULTING WARM
AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND A FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME AROUND
MONDAY NIGHT...SHOULD RESULT IN STORMS. HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO MONDAY NIGHT... AND SHOWERS AND ISOLATION
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY AS A RESULT.
CUTTER
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...A DRY SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO MISSOURI TNGT
AND WEDNESDAY WILL INSURE VFR CONDITIONS. A WK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KNOTS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN HOURS.
DB
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
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