773
FXUS63 KEAX 041724
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1220 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
..UPDATED FOR AVIATION
DISCUSSION
/627 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009/
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOCUSES ON THE VERY NEAR TERM WITH A FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST...PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUING AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
INDEPENDENCE DAY:
A LINE OF STORMS THAT FORMED EARLIER IN THE NIGHT WAS SLOWLY
DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR
THIS AFTERNOONS STORMS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. UNTIL THEN THE CURRENT
LINE SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS OR INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WHILE CONTINUING ITS SLOW SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION. THIS
SEEMED TO BE FOCUSED ON AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM AROUND 306K
TO 310K. MODELS SHOW THIS AREA OF LIFT PERSISTING THROUGH ABOUT 18Z
BEFORE DIMINISHING. SO THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION AREA SHOULD DO
ABOUT THE SAME. THE NEXT QUESTION IS WHERE THE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY
WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW THAT BY THIS AFTERNOON THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
AREA MAY BE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH DUE TO OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION BUT THE PLACEMENT ACTUALLY SEEMS REASONABLE. WITH THAT IN
MIND...ARRANGED HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS FROM
ROUGHLY PAOLA THROUGH SEDALIA INTO NORTH CENTRAL MO. THIS WILL ALSO
LIMIT SEVERE CHANCES TO OUR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES AND WITH WINDS
VEERED OUT IN THAT AREA FEEL THAT OVER SEVERE CHANCES ARE FAIRLY
LIMITED. EXPECT THE METRO TO BE DRY BY THE AFTERNOON AND WITH A
NORTH WIND BEHIND THE FRONT IT ACTUALLY LOOKS FAIRLY PLEASANT FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE REGION SUNDAY EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EASTWARD IT SETS UP A WEAK BOUNDARY IN THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS BRING A
WEAK WAVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW. WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ON THE
BOUNDARY AND WHAT LOOKS LIKE AN UNCAPPED/NEARLY UNCAPPED AIRMASS A
FEW AFTERNOON STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THIS AREA WOULD LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MISSOURI AND FOR NOW WILL ONLY
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS AN UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BUILD OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES BY MIDWEEK WITH MIDDLE 90S EXPECTED BY THE LATER HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED FORECAST DRY
AS SHORTWAVE AND JET ENERGY STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THIS MAY BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK BUT WILL
LET FUTURE SHIFTS ADDRESS THIS.
CDB
AVIATION
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE
TERMINAL SITES EARLY THIS AFTN. EXPECTING THIS FRONT TO PASS
THROUGH THE AIRPORTS WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS WITH A SWLY WIND
TURNING MORE NWLY BY MID-AFTN. ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT WILL BE A
RATHER EXTENSIVE MVFR/IFR STRATUS DECK. GENERAL TRENDS REMAIN TIED
CLOSER TO A SOLN PRODUCED BY THE 12Z NAM WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY LOWERING DOWN TO IFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FEEL THAT THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT ALL
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY AT MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS WHERE TURBULENT
MIXING WILL BE MINIMIZED. RIVER TEMPS ALSO REMAIN IN THE UPPER
70S...AND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 60S STEAM FOG
MAY DROP LOCALIZED VIS/CIGS TOWARDS LIFR CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF TIME
NEAR DAYBREAK. THIS PERIOD STILL REMAINS IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE TAF...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MORE THOROUGH EXAMINATION FOR THE 00Z
SET OF TAFS AND A LOWERING OF THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS NEAR DAYBREAK
IF TRENDS CONTINUE.
DUX
BOOKBINDER
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
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