868  
FXUS63 KEAX 230826  
AFDEAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO  
326 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2018  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2018  
 
THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW THE WEATHER WILL PAN  
OUT TODAY. FIRST, THERE IS WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE/MCV ALONG THE  
KS/NE STATE LINE THAT IS SLIDING THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. THERE IS ALSO A  
KIND OF BAROCLINIC EXTENSION FROM THIS MCV TO THE MCS THAT IS DIVING  
THROUGH OKLAHOMA. THERE IS PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH  
FEATURES. SECOND, THE AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BECOME WEAKLY  
UNSTABLE AND POTENTIALLY UNCAPPED AS THE MCV IS TRACKING INTO THE  
AREA. CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS  
AND STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAKES  
SENSE GIVEN THE PREVIOUS POINTS. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO  
MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF  
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.  
 
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE HOT AND HUMID WITH STRONG INSTABILITY BUILDING  
THROUGH THE DAY AS A RESULT. A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL  
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AND STRONG FORCING WITH THIS  
TROUGH WILL HELP TRIGGER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN KANSAS. ALL MODELS  
SHOW STORMS DEVELOPING IN KANSAS AND/OR NEBRASKA DURING THE  
AFTERNOON AND TRACKING TO THE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS A  
LIKELY SEVERE MCS. BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING. THE NAM IS  
THE QUICKEST, BRINGING THE MCS INTO EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS THE SLOWEST AND MOVES THE MCS INTO THE AREA  
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ECMWF, THE ARW, AND THE NMM ARE  
IN BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES. GIVEN THE AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS,  
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE'LL HAVE A LIKELY SEVERE MCS MOVE INTO  
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY EVENING OR INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE AREA  
LOOKS TO REMAIN MIXED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOUTHEASTERLY  
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS AHEAD OF THE MCS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET  
WITH 30 TO 40 KT WINDS NOSES RIGHT INTO THE AREA, FEEDING THE MCS.  
SEVERE PARAMETERS ON THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE STRONG. WHILE THE NAM  
IS SLOWEST, IT HAS VERY HIGH 0-3KM SHEAR, 40 TO 50 KTS, THAT IS  
ORIENTED ORTHOGONAL TO THE LINE OF STORMS. THIS IS A STRONG  
INDICATION THAT QLCS TORNADOES WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THE GFS IS NOT  
QUITE AS STRONG WITH THE 0-3KM SHEAR BUT STILL HAS 25 TO 40 KTS  
WHICH IS STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO LEAD TO QLCS TORNADOES. AT THE  
VERY LEAST, IT LOOKS LIKE DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS THE  
MCS TRACKS INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI SUNDAY NIGHT.  
 
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MORE SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY. BUT A LOT WILL  
DEPEND ON HOW THE OVERNIGHT SYSTEM EVOLVES AND WHETHER ENOUGH  
RECOVERY OF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN OCCUR. BUT MODELS SHOW CONVECTION  
DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS AN  
UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS  
NOW CLOSED OFF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  
 
FOR TUESDAY, THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER MCS TRACKING INTO THE  
AREA FROM IOWA. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEING FORCED  
TO THE EAST. DURING THE DAY, A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BUILDS OVER  
THE FORECAST AREA WITH STORMS DEVELOPING IN IOWA ALONG A WEAK  
BOUNDARY. ONCE AGAIN, CAPE/SHEAR COMBINATIONS FAVOR THE POTENTIAL  
FOR SEVERE STORMS.  
 
ASIDE FROM THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS  
THROUGH TUESDAY, HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA  
THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. BUT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE A  
NUMBER OF TIMES SO FAR THIS SPRING AND SUMMER, THE UPPER RIDGE IS  
FLAT/BROAD AND MAY ALLOW FOR CONVECTION OR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TO MOVE  
INTO THE AREA.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2018  
 
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS CONTINUE TO NARROW THIS EVENING AND LATEST  
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS REDEVELOPING LOW STRATUS ACROSS WESTERN  
MISSOURI AND FAR EASTERN KANSAS. GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE OF THIS  
PACKAGE, HAVE DECIDED TO HEDGE ON DEVELOPING FOG AT STJ AND  
POSSIBLY MCI GIVEN NARROW TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS. OVERNIGHT SHIFT  
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST ACCORDINGLY HOWEVER. ALL  
PRECIP HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE REGION AND SHOULD NOT POSE ANY  
PROBLEMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IMPROVEMENTS ARE EXPECTED  
AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS DOMINATING THROUGH THE  
CONCLUSION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
 

 
   
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...CDB  
AVIATION...32  
 
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