161  
FXUS63 KEAX 290501  
AFDEAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO  
1201 AM CDT WED MAR 29 2017  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017  
 
IT'S LOOKING A BIT WET AS A COUPLE OF LARGE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO  
SWEEP ACROSS THE NATION OVER THE NEXT WEEK.  
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY SHOWS ONE, IN WHAT WILL BE A SERIES, OF  
LARGE TROUGHS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TODAY;  
WHICH WILL THEN LIFT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY  
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO  
FOLLOW THE MID-WORK WEEK TROUGH INTO AND OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS  
REGION; EFFECTING THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE UP COMING WEEKEND INTO  
EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. AND, THAT'S NOT EVEN THE END OF IT AS MODELS  
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SOME FAST MOVING OPEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS  
ZIPPING EAST LATER NEXT WEEK; ALL OF WHICH MIGHT BRING SOME  
STORMY WEATHER.  
 
LATE TONIGHT THE FOUR CORNERS TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO EJECT INTO AND  
THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE HAS ALREADY SPREAD  
NORTH FROM THE GULF THANKS TO THE SYSTEM THIS PAST WEEKEND. WITH THE  
MOISTURE IN PLACE, AND MORE TO COME, THE TROUGH WILL HAVE NO ISSUE  
GENERATING SOME WIDESPREAD STORMY ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF  
DAYS AS IT SLOWLY EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. CURRENT TRACK  
OF THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES INDICATE THAT THE BEST  
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR  
AREA; WITH THE FOCUS DOWN IN ARKANSAS AND POINTS SOUTH. BUT, THAT  
DOESN'T PRECLUDE SOME STRONG STORMS AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL  
MISSOURI.  
 
AS THE TROUGH EXITS THE FOUR CORNERS WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL START  
OVER RUNNING THE PLAINS WITH THE HELP OF THE NOCTURNAL JET. WITH  
BOTH STRONG WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED ON THE NOSE  
OF THIS JET, RAIN WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN  
KANSAS AND MISSOURI BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE  
A BIT HARD TO FIND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF KANSAS AND MISSOURI  
TOMORROW DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND PREVAILING SHOWERS, BUT AS THE  
TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH COOLING ALOFT WILL HELP INDUCE SOME --UP  
TO 900 J/KG-- ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR STORMS TO WORK WITH FOR  
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS FOR SHEAR, 0-6KM VALUES WILL  
BE RUNNING IN THE 60 TO 70 KNOT RANGE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALL  
THIS MEANS THAT AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI  
--SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50-- WILL HAVE SOME THREAT OF FOR SEVERE  
WEATHER; WITH WHAT SEVERE THREAT THERE IS DECREASING RAPIDLY AS  
YOU MOVE NORTH. PRIMARY THREATS FROM THE WEATHER LOOK TO BE LARGE  
HAIL, THOUGH SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN  
THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT. OTHERWISE, AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES  
WILL BE AROUND 1 TO 1.25 INCHES, WHICH IS IN THE 90% RANGE FOR  
THIS TIME OF YEAR, AND WE ARE EXPECTING SUFFICIENT RAINFALL THAT  
SOME FLASH FLOODING COULD BE AN ISSUE ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT RISES  
ON AREAS RIVERS AND STREAMS.  
 
NEXT BOUT OF RAIN WILL THEN ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT  
LARGE TROUGH MOVES INTO AND SLOWLY THROUGH THE PLAINS. STORMS FROM  
THIS SECOND TROUGH WILL LIKELY ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND  
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, AND MAYBE TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017  
 
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW LATE MORNING, THEN  
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST  
AREA, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS REMAINING IN THE SOUTHERN HALF. IT IS  
POSSIBLE FOR THE MVFR CEILINGS TO SPREAD NORTH NEAR MCI AND MKC  
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST  
THESE TERMINALS AND SURROUNDING AREAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 1000 FT. WIDESPREAD  
RAIN AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO PUSH INTO THE  
AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, DROPPING VISIBILITY SOME. THE RAIN AND  
THUNDER WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED DURING THE DAY TIME THROUGH  
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE  
CONDITIONS IS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH- SOUTHWEST. AS  
IT DOES SO, THE EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE, GUSTING UP TO 25  
KTS, MAINLY IN THE MORNING HOURS, THEN DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.  
THIS IS A SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM; THEREFORE, THE LOWER CEILINGS AND  
VISIBILITIES, AND RAINY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...CUTTER  
AVIATION...GRANA  
 
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