975  
FXUS63 KEAX 240437  
AFDEAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO  
1137 PM CDT SAT SEP 23 2017  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT SEP 23 2017  
 
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION THIS  
AFTERNOON AS A CORE OF 925-HPA AIR OF 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS  
ABOVE NORMAL PERSISTS ACROSS THE UPPER MISS AND LWR MISSOURI RVR  
VLYS. FOR THE MOST PART, TODAY'S ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN  
UNSUPPORTIVE OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION AS UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT  
REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK THANKS TO A SOUTHWEST EXTENDING MIDLEVEL RIDGE  
AXIS. THAT SAID HOWEVER, A STRAY STORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP LATER  
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING EAST OF ROUTE 65, HOWEVER OVERALL  
THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL FOR MENTIONABLE POPS AT THIS TIME.  
OTHERWISE, EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH LOWS FALLING INTO  
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR MOST.  
 
A FAIRLY SIMILAR STORY ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY WITH MORE CLOUD  
COVER EXPECTED THANKS TO SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A COLD FRONT  
OFF OUT OUR WEST. CONVECTION ALONG THIS FEATURE DURING THE  
OVERNIGHT MAY LEAD TO GREATER AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER THAN SEEN  
THIS AFTERNOON, A SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  
DESPITE THIS, SOUTHERLY FLOW AND COMBINED WITH THE BRUSHING OF A  
WEAK SHORTWAVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO A FEW STRAY NON-SEVERE  
STORMS, HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED IN NATURE.  
 
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT  
WEEK AS AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT INCHES EVER CLOSER TO OUR AREA.  
THIS WILL OCCUR AS A WESTERN U.S. DEEP TROUGH FINALLY EJECTS EAST  
FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH MIDWEEK, WHICH WILL FINALLY  
ALLOW THE FRONT TO START SLIDING EAST THROUGH OUR AREA TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW, TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE  
THE WETTEST OF THE PERIODS WITH SHWRS/STORMS LIKELY FOR A GOOD  
PORTION OF THE DAY. QUICK LOOK AT MODEL PROJECTED PWAT PLOTS SHOWS  
VALUES INCREASING TO 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, WHICH  
COMBINED WITH THE SLOW FRONTAL MOVEMENT, MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED  
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. THAT SAID HOWEVER, PATTERN  
DOESN'T APPEAR OVERALL PROBLEMATIC AS A SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF  
OUR MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE LOCKED IN-PLACE ACROSS  
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE TIMEFRAME, LIKELY SERVING AS A  
FOCUS FOR EXTENSIVE CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH AND THUS HOPEFULLY  
PREVENTING EXCESSIVE TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM LIFTING TOO FAR NORTH.  
THAT SAID HOWEVER, TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN COMING  
DAYS TO SEE IF THIS PATTERN CHANGES AT ALL.  
 
RAIN CHANCES TO COME TO AN END BY WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COOLER  
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA. IN FACT, HIGH TEMPS BY THIS  
TIME NEXT WEEK MAY BE STRUGGLING TO REACH THE 70 DEGREE MARK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT SAT SEP 23 2017  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY A FEW HIGH  
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THE REGION OVERNIGHT. DIURNAL CUMULUS  
SHOULD DEVELOP SUNDAY AROUND NOON AND DISSIPATE BY THE EVENING  
HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE  
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. COVERAGE STILL LOOKS LOW ENOUGH TO  
INCLUDE THE FORECAST THOUGH AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...32  
AVIATION...CDB  
 
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