388  
FXUS63 KSGF 222322  
AFDSGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
522 PM CST THU FEB 22 2018  
   
..UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 158 PM CST THU FEB 22 2018  
 
THE NEXT MID LEVEL WAVE OF ENERGY AND SLUG OF MOISTURE IS  
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.  
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SPREADING IN FROM SOUTHWEST TO  
NORTHEAST. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE ENTIRE AREA IS NOW ABOVE  
FREEZING AND WE ARE DONE WITH THE WINTER WEATHER THREAT. THE BAD  
NEWS IS THAT MUCH OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI IS CLOSE TO SATURATION.  
 
WE HAVE ISSUED A NEW FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL  
MISSOURI WHERE AREAS HAVE ALREADY SEEN 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL  
ALREADY THIS WEEK. THIS AREA COULD SEE ANOTHER 2 TO 3 INCHES OF  
RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND WILL  
HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL MINOR FLOODING OF  
CREEKS, STREAMS, AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL SEE  
OFF AND ON SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH VERY LITTLE ELEVATED  
INSTABILITY POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI FOR A COUPLE  
CLAPS OF THUNDER TONIGHT. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THE RAIN  
CHANCES DECREASE BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH A BREAK IN THE RAIN  
CHANCES BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND DEVELOPS AND MOVES IN BY FRIDAY  
EVENING.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 158 PM CST THU FEB 22 2018  
 
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL WAFFLE BACK AND FORTH OVER THE  
REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD FRIDAY  
NIGHT ACROSS THE OZARKS. ENHANCED LIFT NEAR 850 TO 750 MB WILL BE  
THE FOCUS FOR ANOTHER BAND OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY  
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI  
LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI BY SATURDAY MORNING.  
 
A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP  
SATURDAY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND LIFT INTO THE MIDWEST. A  
SHARPENING COLD FRONT/DRY LINE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL  
PLAINS AND SURGE EASTWARD AND A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT  
ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS INTO IOWA. WE WILL HAVE MONITOR THIS STORM  
SYSTEM DEVELOP AND CHARACTERISTICS WITH WARM MOIST AIR TRYING TO  
SNEAK UP INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI AHEAD OF THE FRONT SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE PUSHES OUR DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S  
AND LOWER 60S. WIND SHEAR WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND INSTABILITY WILL  
BE THE BIG QUESTION. FORECAST MUCAPE VALUES MAY APPROACH 1000 J/KG  
AND EVEN SOME LOW LEVEL CAPE TRYING TO SHOW UP IN THE MODELS.  
RIGHT NOW SOUTHERN MISSOURI IS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR A FEW STRONG  
TO SEVERE STORMS BUT THAT COULD BE ADJUSTED UPWARDS IF TRENDS  
CONTINUE. THE FRONT AND LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE  
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE AND QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR A COUPLE DAYS ON  
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW  
ALOFT BRINGS IN MORE MOISTURE AND OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM. ANOTHER  
SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. BY  
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN AND MAYBE  
STORMS TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE TO ABOVE  
AVERAGE OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 522 PM CST THU FEB 22 2018  
 
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST  
THROUGH 15Z-18Z FRIDAY ALL ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI, INCLUDING  
KSGF, KJLN AND KBBG FOR BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. PERIODS  
OF RAIN WILL ALSO BE COMMON THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE ENDING FRIDAY  
MORNING. A VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED BY  
MID MORNING FRIDAY, WITH CEILINGS EVEN SLOWER TO RISE INTO THE  
MVFR CATEGORY BY AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR MOZ071-082-083-092-  
096>098-104>106.  
 
KS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...GRIFFIN  
LONG TERM...GRIFFIN  
AVIATION...RABERDING  
 
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