087
FXUS63 KSGF 072022
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
222 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
DISCUSSION
..OVERVIEW
MAIN FOCUS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.
..CURRENTLY
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL NOVEMBER DAY ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
USHERING IN MID 70S TEMEPRATURES. DEWPOINTS WERE RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA. STRATUS DECK SOUTH OF THE
BOSTON MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING HAS FADED AWAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS UPPER LOW TRACKING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TOWARDS WEST TEXAS.
..SHORT TERM
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM FORECST
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF MONDAY WITH ATMOSPHERE REMAINING
FAIRLY DRY. PW VALUES OF AROUND 0.5 TO 0.6 PROGGED OUT THROUGH
SUNDAY. MOISTURE DOES BEGIN TO INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
NORTHERN STREAM SURFACE COLD FRONT. BULK OF MOISTURE AND QPF
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WHICH SHOULD REMAIN
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA WITH HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO BE
CONFINED TO GULF COASTAL STATES. MODELS ALL HINTING AT SOME POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH QPF TOTALS NOT
ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS INTO THE MID 30S DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.
..LONG TERM
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MIDWEEK AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER SHOULD SEE ANOTHER QUICK TURNAROUND IN
TEMPS BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN ON BACK SIDE
OF HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. MUCH
OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST REMAINS DRY WITH NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
LINDENBERG
AVIATION
FOR THE 1800Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
SHALLOW STRATUS LAYER NOW OVER EASTERN TX/ARKLATEX TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD TONIGHT. BELIEVE IF ANY STRATUS WERE TO ADVECT INTO
SOUTHERN MO...IT WOULD HAVE TO FIGHT TERRAIN AND EVEN THEN WOULD
LIKELY QUICKLY MIX OUT DURING THE MORNING SUNDAY. A FAIRLY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF A SFC FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST/PLAINS
WILL STILL SUPPORT SOME GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND WILL CONTINUE THE
MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN ALL TAFS TONIGHT. DSA
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page