215
FXUS63 KSGF 051109
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
609 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG IN THE EASTERN OZARKS THIS MORNING.
- DRY WITH A WARMING TREND THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY, WITH HEAT INDEX
REACHING AND EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES THROUGH LATE WEEK.
- EYEING A COOLDOWN AND POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2025
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS GRACED US WITH YET ANOTHER QUIET
NIGHT. WHILE THERE IS STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE INCOMING SYNOPTIC RIDGE, WINDS IN THE MID- AND LOW-
LEVELS ARE VERY LIGHT AND ERRATIC, PERHAPS DUE TO THE MORE LOCALIZED
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF YESTERDAY'S MCV. THE CAVEAT TO THESE CALM CONDITIONS IS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR FOG THIS MORNING DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND VERY
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS THREAT IS PRIMARILY IN THE
VALLEYS IN THE EASTERN OZARKS, AS BETTER MOISTURE HAS STUCK AROUND
HERE. THIS FOG WILL BE PATCHY AND SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH
DAYTIME HEATING, BUT USE CAUTION IF VISIBILITIES BECOME
REDUCED.
AN INVERTED RIDGE IS EVIDENT AT SEVERAL LEVELS, AND IT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, KEEPING SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT. PLENTY
OF DIRECT HEATING AND LITTLE ADVECTION WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE TO
AROUND NORMAL TODAY, IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90 IN SOME AREAS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WARM, IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. THERE WILL
BE A SIMILAR THREAT FOR FOG IN THE EASTERN OZARKS TOMORROW MORNING.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE OUR FIRST OF SEVERAL DAYS WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS THEY CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2025
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH IN, AND THE TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT CAUSES WINDS TO START PICKING UP. THE STRONGER SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL ADVECT IN WARMER AIR VERY EFFICIENTLY, AND HIGHS
WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB UP INTO THE MID-90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MID-
TO LATE-WEEK, SOME MAY SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES REACH OR EXCEED 100
DEGREES.
BY SATURDAY, LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH OUT OF THE PLAINS,
WHICH WILL START TO TEMPER TEMPERATURES JUST A SMIDGE. BY SUNDAY,
LONG-RANGE MODELS HAVE THIS LOW JOINING FORCES WITH A CANADIAN LOW
TO ITS NORTH TO SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA, COOLING
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NORMAL AND PERHAPS BRINGING SOME CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PATCHY FOG MAY IMPACT AREAS IN THE EASTERN OZARKS FOR A SHORT
PERIOD AFTER SUNRISE.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...NELSON
LONG TERM...NELSON
AVIATION...NELSON
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