936  
FXUS63 KSGF 290439  
AFDSGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
1139 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)  
 
MILD AND QUIET CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED OVER THE REGION TODAY. A  
STORM SYSTEM WAS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, AND WILL BEGIN TO BRING  
US SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY.  
STORMY CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AS WELL AS UNSTABLE  
AIR REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI.  
 
A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM  
FRONT SURGES INTO THE REGION. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL  
SPREAD WITHIN A HIGHLY SHEARED AIRMASS, INCREASING THE RISK FOR  
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
WE WILL BE MENTIONING ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE ON  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, DUE TO THE SHEAR AND CAPE  
COMBINATION. STORMS LOCATED ON THE DENSITY GRADIENT (WARM FRONT)  
WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR A TORNADO RISK. ALSO,  
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL PROVIDE A DECENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR  
STRUCTURE FOR STREAMWISE VORTICITY INGESTION INTO UPDRAFTS.  
 
FOR THURSDAY, THE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT A SEVERE RISK WILL  
CONTINUE FOR THE EASTERN OZARKS, OR ESSENTIALLY AREAS EAST OF  
HIGHWAY 65. WE WILL ALSO MENTION ALL MODES POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY.  
 
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA LATE THURSDAY EVENING.  
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL COOL INTO THE 40S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
 
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL TRACK OVER THE NATION'S MIDSECTION ON  
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS  
FEATURE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE  
SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.  
 
THE GFS HAS THE UPPER LOW ON THIS SYSTEM LAGGING BEHIND  
CONSIDERABLY, SO SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.  
 
THE GFS IS ALSO HINTING TOWARD A PATTERN CHANGE WITH DEEP  
NORTHWEST FLOW EVOLVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS  
WOULD BRING A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS INTO THE AREA TOWARD THE  
MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017  
 
PILOTS CAN EXPECT DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO  
WEDNESDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO  
WEDNESDAY WHILE CEILINGS LOWER. PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL  
PERSIST INTO THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MO...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...CRAMER  
LONG TERM...CRAMER  
AVIATION...FOSTER  
 
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