423
FXUS63 KSGF 162205
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
505 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2012
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 248 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2012/
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
AND HAS NEARLY MADE ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS. A FEW STORMS
HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI BUT THE THREAT FOR
ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS WAS QUICKLY DISSIPATING AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD END
BY SUNSET AS THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF THE AREA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVER THE
REGION WILL THEN MAKE FOR A WARM AND CLEAR END TO THE WEEK. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY. THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN
QUESTION WITH MODELS MOVING THE FRONT INTO THE OZARKS AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY MORNING OR AS LATE AS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AND LATEST MODELS TRENDS AND
TIMING...BUT FOR NOW DID KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN WEST OF HIGHWAY 71
FOR EARLY SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMINDER OF NEXT
WEEK. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS FOR ANOTHER SHOT AT RAINFALL NEXT
WEEKEND BUT THAT IS TOO FAR OUT TO HAVE ANY CONFIDENCE IN AT THIS
POINT.
HATCH
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW
CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE
KBBG TERMINAL. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THUS...HAVE
KEPT MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE KBBG TAF. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST BELOW 12 KNOTS TODAY..BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS EVENING.
SCHAUMANN
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
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