151
FXUS63 KSGF 241117
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
617 AM CDT WED APR 24 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG AND GROUND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AREA LAKES AND RIVERS.
- SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS RETURN LATE TODAY INTO THURSDAY.
- RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
- HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL ACCOMPANY THE
ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT WED APR 24 2024
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND CURRENT CONDITIONS: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
AND AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION IN THE PACIFIC OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. OUR AREA WAS LOCATED IN BETWEEN THE TROUGH AXIS AND THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. THIS HAS
BROUGHT A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WAS
A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME BOUNDARY
LEVEL MOISTURE STILL REMAINING WHICH WAS CAUSING SOME FOG AND
GROUND FOG, ESPECIALLY ALONG WITH AREA RIVERS AND LAKES WHICH
CAN BE SEEN NICELY WITH THE NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS GOES CHANNEL.
NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG, ESPECIALLY IN
OUR EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING.
TODAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFF TO THE
EAST WITH MAINLY AN EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA AT THE SURFACE.
THE FRONT WILL HANG UP OVER ARKANSAS WITH THE MAIN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AXIS TO OUR SOUTHWEST. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF THIS
MORNING AND WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS RETURN TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S WITH SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY.
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY: A LOW LEVEL JET WILL SET UP OVER THE
PLAINS TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE HIGH PLAINS. EASTERN EDGES OF SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO OUR WESTERN CWA DURING THE
NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY
WITH THE MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTING INTO THE AREA (PW VALUES 1.2" TO
1.5"). SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT WED APR 24 2024
SEVERE WEATHER, HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND: THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASING OVER
THE AREA. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH 850 MB JET OF 40-50
KTS OVER THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH 1000-1500 J/KG SFC
BASED CAPE VALUES IN THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY
AND 35-60 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. WILL START TO SEE OUR SEVERE
WEATHER PROBABILITIES INCREASE ON FRIDAY. THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL LIFT NEGATIVELY TILTED TO THE NORTHEAST INTO NEBRASKA
BY 00Z SAT. WHILE THE FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY END FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THE NEXT WAVE WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY
WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LIKELY DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE AVAILABLE AS THIS NEXT WAVE OF CONVECTION PUSHES THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE
WEATHER. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA, BUT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. BECAUSE OF THE HIGHER PW VALUES
AND LIKELY TRAINING OF STORMS ACROSS THE SAME LOCATIONS, WE WILL
HAVE INCREASED RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLOODING ACROSS
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WARMER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA
AND THE NORTHERN STREAM JET WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT WED APR 24 2024
SOME LIGHT FOG MIGHT START OUT THE 12Z TAFS, BUT SHOULD RAPIDLY
DISSIPATE THEREAFTER. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST TODAY WITH AN EASTERLY WIND DEVELOPING ON THE BACK OF A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
MAY AFFECT THE JLN TAF AFTER 06Z. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION WITH SOME MVFR AT JLN
WITHIN THE PROB30 GROUP LATE TONIGHT.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT MON APR 22 2024
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 26:
KSGF: 66/2016
APRIL 27:
KSGF: 67/1899
APRIL 28:
KSGF: 68/1896
RECORD PRECIPITATION:
APRIL 28:
KSGF: 2.19/1996
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...LINDENBERG
CLIMATE...CAMDEN
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