066
FXUS63 KSGF 210723
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
123 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
DISCUSSION
FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL PRIMARILY WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY TIMING OF NEXT FROPA THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS THIS MORNING
GIVING US AN EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. 11-3.9U SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING STRATUS DECK STILL HANGING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM
WITH LOW 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND MID 40S ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI AT THIS TIME. OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
ROCKIES THIS MORNING WITH RIDGING FROM NEW MEXICO NORTH INTO NORTH
DAKOTA OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. UPPER CIRCULATION CONTINUES OVER
NORTHERN TEXAS ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH DRY SLOTTING OVER MOST
OF THE CWA.
FOR THIS WEEKEND...GENERALLY FOLLOWED MET GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES
AS IT HAS BEEN DOING VERY WELL THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOW 60S AS THE STRATUS DECK BREAKS
UP...DESPITE 850/925MB TEMPERATURES BEING A LITTLE COOLER TODAY
OVER YESTERDAY. THIS COOLING SHOULD BE OFFSET BY SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN
LOUISIANA THROUGH THE DAY...EFFECTIVELY CUTTING OFF ANY GULF
MOISTURE RETURN. LOOKS DRY AND WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE OUR
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONTINUED FOLLOWING
MET/WRF GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES. GFS DOES SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH NO GULF
MOISTURE RETURN...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.
THE 00Z GFS STARTING TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF ON
POSITIONING OF UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. STILL A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WITH THE LOW
CENTER TRACKING ACROSS IOWA..WHILE ECMWF TRACK IT MORE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI MONDAY NIGHT. BOTH SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND HAVE
CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME. PRETTY GOOD SHOT OF COLD
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO
-4C TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLD AIR LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
FALLING TO -6C...SO LOOKS LIKE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL
PROBABLY SEE TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL BASED ON BETTER AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS. WILL MOST LIKELY SEE OUR FIRST REAL FREEZE
OF THE SEASON THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AREA WIDE.
CLAYCOMB
AVIATION
FOR THE 21/0600Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...CLOUD COVER/VFR CEILINGS
CONTINUE OVER THE TAF SITES...WITH SOME LOWER MVFR CEILINGS
LURKING HERE AND THERE AS WELL. PROGGED (AND OBSERVED 00Z) SOUNDINGS
STILL SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT CLOUDS/MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 2KM AS
WELL...BUT SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE SHOWN THINNING OR CLEARING IN
SPOTS...AND WHERE CLEARING CAN OCCUR...WE SHOULD SEE MORE OF A
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY WITH RADIATION FOG. ALL IN ALL...TRENDS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED...BUT WENT WITH MORE OF CLOUDY (MAINLY
MVFR CEILING CATEGORY) SCENARIO WITH A BRIEF CHANCE OF SOME IFR
VISIBILITY NEAR SUNRISE /11Z-14Z.
DSA
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
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