031
FXUS63 KSGF 041053
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
553 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
..UPDATE TO AVIATION
DISCUSSION
FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO WITH PRECIP CHANCES AND SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THE EFFECTS OF MORNING
CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI AND KANSAS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE
IN WHEN AND WHERE WE SEE WEATHER TODAY.
CURRENTLY...CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS AND MISSOURI PRETTY MUCH MOVING EAST AND NOT MAKING MUCH
SOUTHERN MOVEMENT. OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...BENTON...MORGAN AND
MILLER COUNTIES GETTING SOME LIGHT PRECIP AT THIS TIME FORM THE
COMPLEX...BUT FOR THE REST OF THE CWA...CONDITIONS ARE DRY.
FURTHER WEST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...CONVECTION FILLING IN AND
HEADING OUR WAY. LOW LEVEL JET OUT THAT WAY IN THE ORDER OF
45-50KTS OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS SITUATED OVER
NORTHERN KANSAS. CLOUD TOPS OVER NORTHERN KANSAS/MISSOURI APPEAR
TO BE WARMING SOME...INDICATING COMPLEX IS WEAKENING. WHILE OUT
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL AND EXPAND. TO
FURTHER COMPLICATE THINGS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME OVER OLD
MEXICO INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO SHOWING SIGNS OF SPREADING
NORTHEAST. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS FEATURE AS IT COULD REALLY HAVE
AN EFFECT ON PRECIP AMOUNTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF IT
MAKES IT INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
FOR TODAY...DEBRIS FROM THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE MOVING INTO OUR CWA AND HAVE A DEFINITE IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES AND INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BELIEVE THE AREA
LEAST IMPACTED WILL BE SOUTHEAST MISSOURI WHERE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE PROBABLY GOING TO BE THE WARMEST. WRF DEPICTING
CAPES ACROSS THIS AREA IN THE AREA OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. WRF PROG
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A FAIRLY GOOD UPPER JET FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WITH 40KTS AT 300MBS FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH BULK SHEAR IN THE
40-45KT RANGE. PWATS INCREASE ABOVE 2 INCHES AS WELL THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING. PRIMARY THREATS WITH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
WINDS AND HAIL...BUT THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR TORNADOES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. WILL ADD TO THIS MORNINGS HWO. OF
COURSE...ALL OF THIS COULD BE A MOOT POINT IF DEBRIS OVER THE CWA
KEEPS TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN WHAT I HAVE CURRENTLY FORECAST.
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON FRONTAL TIMING AS WELL. GFS A LITTLE
FASTER BRINGING THE FRONT INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI BY LATE
AFTERNOON. ECMWF LOOKS TO HANG UP THE FRONT A LITTLE LONGER AND
MOVES IT THROUGH THIS EVENING. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE HELD ONTO
SOME CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE DRYING MOST AREAS OUT ENTIRELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND
THE FRONT SUNDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN TO AROUND 14C
SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THIS COOLING AND RESIDUAL LOW
CLOUDINESS...HIGHS ON SUNDAY MAY STRUGGLE TO HIT 80. SURFACE HIGH
OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL MAKE FOR A VERY NICE
MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.
UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. KEPT FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW...BUT GFS IS HINTING AT A RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE WEDNESDAY IN
THE LOW LEVELS AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE RIDGE
THAT COULD BRING US SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER IN THE WEEK.
CLAYCOMB
AVIATION
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...CONVECTION CONTINUING OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI AND
BACK TO THE WEST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE CONVECTION IN
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO WESTERN MISSOURI LATER IN
THE MORNING AFFECTING BOTH THE SGF/JLN TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE TAF AS LOW
LEVEL JET CONTINUES OVER THE AREA.
LINDENBERG
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
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