784  
FXUS63 KSGF 142324  
AFDSGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
624 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2018  
   
..UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2018  
 
UPPER LOW CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH  
SCATTERED CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND  
MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL  
MISSOURI. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS  
EXTENDED FROM EAST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS LIFTING EAST-  
NORTHEAST. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY CONTINUE AN  
EASTWARD TREK INTO MISSOURI TONIGHT AND BECOMING MORE OF AN OPEN  
WAVE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL  
CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL  
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. EVENTUALLY BY  
LATE WEDNESDAY THE TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA  
AND THE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD COME TO AN END FROM NORTHWEST TO  
SOUTHEAST. RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH SOME ISOLATED HIGHER  
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. WHILE WE ARE  
NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FLOODING DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS  
WITHIN A D2-D3 DROUGHT, SOME ISOLATED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE  
WHERE HEAVY RAIN CAN MOVE ACROSS THE SAME LOCATIONS. PW VALUES  
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL SO THERE SHOULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN  
PRODUCING SHOWERS/STORMS.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2018  
 
RAIN SHOULD MOSTLY END BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY PERIOD ON  
THURSDAY AS WELL. A SHORTWAVE TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL DROP SOUTHEAST  
INTO MISSOURI THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE  
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.  
 
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY  
NEXT WEEK AS A SYSTEM MOVING INLAND LATE IN THE WEEK WILL BREAK  
DOWN THE RIDGE AND PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND.  
THE BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE WILL ARRIVE  
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2018  
 
MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING,  
WITH SOME SHOWERS BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO WESTERN MISSOURI, WITH  
STRONGER CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS.  
WILL SEE THIS CONVECTION SPREAD EASTWARD LATE THIS EVENING AND  
OVERNIGHT AFFECTING ALL 3 TAF SITES. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE  
MAINLY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD  
BE SOME VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE RAIN,  
EXPECTED MAINLY MVFR TO LOCALIZED IFR LATER TONIGHT INTO MUCH OF  
WEDNESDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 12 KNOTS EXPECTED  
TONIGHT, AND PERHAPS GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MO...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG  
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG  
AVIATION...RABERDING  
 
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