461  
FXUS63 KSGF 221031  
AFDSGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
531 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2018  
   
..12Z AVIATION UPDATE
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2018  
 
A CLOSED OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF ST  
LOUIS EARLY THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE HAVE  
USHERED IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE  
AREA. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY WITH RESIDUAL  
CLOUDCOVER AND A FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTHEAST  
OF SPRINGFIELD. TEMPS WILL VARY QUITE A BIT ACROSS THE AREA WITH  
MORE SUNSHINE AND TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S NEAR JLN TO CLOUDS AND MUCH  
COOLER LOW/MID 70S ACROSS THE ROLLA/VICHY AREA.  
 
THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES,  
AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES,  
AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM SW KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA AND  
ARKANSAS WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING. AN INSTABILITY  
AND TIGHT THETAE GRADIENT IS QUITE EVIDENT IN HIGH RES MODELS  
TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT/STATIONARY BOUNDARY,  
STRETCHING SOUTHEAST FROM DODGE CITY, KS TO TULSA, OK TO LITTLE  
ROCK AR. THEREFORE THE FORECASTED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM  
WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE THETAE GRADIENT AND AFFECT LOCATIONS  
MAINLY ALONG THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER AND PERHAPS EXTREME  
SOUTHEAST KANSAS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6AM. FORWARD PROPAGATING  
VECTORS ALSO SUPPORT THE SYSTEM MOVING EAST WITH A SHARP TURN  
SOUTHEAST AS IT APPROACHES THE KS/MO/AR BORDER AREA. DO THINK THAT  
SOME RAINFALL WILL OCCUR HOWEVER THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL  
LIKELY REMAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. A FEW OF THE HIGH RES  
CAM MODELS SHOW THE COMPLEX COMPLETELY MISSING THE ENTIRE AREA TO  
THE SOUTH WHILE THE 00Z 12KM NAM IS THE MOST NORTH WITH THE  
COMPLEX, THEREFORE SOME CHANGES TO POPS/QPF FOR TONIGHT ARE STILL  
POSSIBLE.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2018  
 
THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY IS TRICKY AND WILL BE HEAVY ON THE  
MESOSCALE DETAILS. ONGOING MCS WILL LIKELY AFFECT LOCATIONS NEAR  
THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AS A 35-40KT  
LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE ORIENTED IN A FASHION WHERE ADDITIONAL  
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN  
OKLAHOMA AND MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST ALONG OUTFLOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  
 
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, OR PERHAPS THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE WARM FRONT,  
WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGHOUT  
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE POSSIBLY LIFTING NORTH  
INTO THE AREA. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY FORECAST VARIES IN THE  
MODELS FOR SATURDAY. THE GFS HAS BETWEEN 2000-3000J/KG OF ML CAPE  
WITH OVER 40KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SATURDAY WHILE  
OTHER MODELS SHOW MUCH LESS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL JETS WILL BE  
OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND THE GFS SHOWS A WEAK DISTURBANCE  
MOVING OUT OF KANSAS LATE IN THE DAY. THEREFORE A CONDITIONAL  
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL  
EXIST SATURDAY. DETAILS WILL BE REFINED AS WE GET CLOSER.  
 
THE FRONT WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN  
OKLAHOMA AND WE MAY SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOP ACROSS  
THE AREA ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. A STRONG  
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON  
SUNDAY WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE  
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY. WHILE  
THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE SUNDAY, WE MAY BE  
CAPPED ALONG WITH MODEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES. WILL NEED TO  
MONITOR TRENDS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN GET GOING SUNDAY.  
THE SCENARIO ALSO EXISTS WHERE OVERNIGHT ELEVATED STORMS CONTINUE  
INTO THE DAY AND BECOME SURFACE BASED. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO  
IS THAT STORMS WILL FIRE WELL TO OUR WEST ACROSS KANSAS BY EVENING AND  
GENERALLY MOVE JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA, HOWEVER THEY  
MAY CLIP SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI.  
SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBO WOULD FAVOR A SEVERE THREAT IN THESE  
AREAS.  
 
THE MAIN UPPER WAVE MOVES OUT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL  
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR  
NORTHWEST CWA. FROM MIDWEEK INTO THE END OF THE WEEK, MODELS ARE  
CONSISTENT THAT A DECENT MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WITH  
TEMPS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 90S AND PRECIP CHANCES BEING TIED TO  
DIURNAL PROCESSES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 529 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2018  
 
CEILINGS WILL BOUNCE AROUND BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR FOR THE FIRST  
FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD BEFORE REMAINING IN MVFR INTO THE  
AFTERNOON HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THIS EVENING.  
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST TODAY. RAIN WITH  
EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND MAY AFFECT THE  
SITES TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.  
 

 
   
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MO...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...BURCHFIELD  
LONG TERM...BURCHFIELD  
AVIATION...BURCHFIELD  
 
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