172  
FXUS63 KSGF 191059  
AFDSGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
559 AM CDT TUE SEP 19 2017  
   
..12Z AVIATION FORECAST UPDATE
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT TUE SEP 19 2017  
 
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, WET GROUND AND SMALL DEWPOINT  
DEPRESSIONS WERE LEADING TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING.  
WHILE AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL BE MOST FAVORED FOR  
DENSE FOG, WE WILL BE MONITORING AREAS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE  
EASTERN OZARKS AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT  
FOR ANY EXPANSIONS TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. GOES-16 FOG IMAGERY  
WAS SHOWING FOG WELL ACROSS AREA RIVERS AND LAKES. LOCATIONS WEST  
OF US HIGHWAY 65 WILL LIKELY SEE LESS FOG SINCE THIS AREA HAS  
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND  
SPEEDS. THE FOG WILL LIKELY VARY CONSIDERABLY FROM LOCATION TO  
LOCATION AND MORNING MOTORISTS WILL NEED TO BE COGNIZANT OF THIS. THE  
FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING.  
 
THERE IS A WEAK MID LEVEL VORT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING  
WHICH WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE AREA. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT IS  
THERE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAINLY ACROSS SE  
KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HRRR AND  
RAP HAVE BEEN OVERDONE ALREADY WITH THIS ACTIVITY SO CONFIDENCE IS  
LOW INTO HOW MUCH ACTIVITY THERE WILL BE.  
 
MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH  
HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO TAKE  
SHAPE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE  
GRADIENT TO OUR WEST. THEREFORE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE  
TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI AND SE KANSAS.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT TUE SEP 19 2017  
 
THE PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD WILL FEATURE A LONG WAVE TROUGH  
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN US, PLACING OUR AREA IN A SOUTHWEST  
MID LEVEL FLOW WITH A LARGE RIDGE TO OUR EAST. ON WEDNESDAY,  
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PASS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WITH A SURFACE  
FRONT FROM KANSAS NORTHEAST INTO IOWA. WITH A NEARLY PARALLEL  
FLOW PATTERN IT WILL BE HARD FOR A SURFACE FRONT TO PUSH SOUTHEAST  
THEREFORE HIGHEST CHANCES OF A SHOWER AND STORM (20-30%) WILL  
OCCUR ACROSS SE KANSAS INTO WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI. THE NAM KEEPS  
ALL PRECIP FROM KANSAS CITY ON TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE GFS AND  
EURO DEVELOPS PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH AND MOVES IT INTO OUR AREA  
WEDNESDAY EVENING. DUE THINK THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY WITH  
THE FRONT NEVER HAVING A CHANCE TO MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA. WINDS  
WILL AGAIN BE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND  
25MPH.  
 
THE MAIN STORY HOWEVER WILL BE THE HEAT FOR WED AND THURS,  
POTENTIALLY INTO FRIDAY. 850 MB TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 20-23C RANGE  
WHICH WILL COMBINED WITH A STRONG SOUTH WIND WILL PUSH HIGHS FROM  
90 INTO THE LOW 90S. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HIGHS MAY NEED TO BE  
RAISED A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IF THE TROUGH OUT WEST IS  
SLOWER TO MOVE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK VERY LOW FROM THURSDAY  
ONWARD AND WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND WHEN  
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH FINALLY MOVE EAST TOWARD THE AREA.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 556 AM CDT TUE SEP 19 2017  
 
AREAS OF DENSE FOG AFFECTING THE OZARKS REGION THIS MORNING  
AROUND SGF AND BBG. IFR TO LIRF VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL  
LAST THROUGH 13Z OR 14Z BEFORE FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY  
MID MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE TAF  
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS BY  
MIDDAY AND THIS AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MOZ055>058-  
067>071-079>083-090>092-095>098-103>106.  
 
KS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...BURCHFIELD  
LONG TERM...BURCHFIELD  
AVIATION...GRIFFIN  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab MO Page
The Nexlab KS Page Main Text Page