743  
FXUS63 KSGF 230832  
AFDSGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
332 AM CDT TUE MAY 23 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 148 AM CDT TUE MAY 23 2017  
 
A SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDS FOR CENTRAL IA INTO EASTERN KS. THIS  
FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST REACHING THE EASTERN CWFA BORDER BY  
EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SPOTTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH  
LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN. AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT  
IS EXPECTED, SO EXPECT COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS TO INCREASE THIS  
MORNING. MODEST INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SOME SPOTTY LIGHTING,  
BUT NOT MUCH MORE. NICE TO HAVE SOME RAIN THAT DOESN'T ARRIVE BY  
THE BUCKETFUL FOR A CHANGE.  
 
WITH THE CLOUDS AND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE  
CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BEHIND FRONT.  
 
AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO  
NORTHEAST MO BY 12Z/7AM WED. POST FRONTAL CLOUDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY  
ABUNDANT. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME BREAKS AT TIMES.  
 
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE MAY 23 2017  
 
THE WEATHER LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE TO END THE WEEK.  
 
WEDNESDAY: THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER MO WILL MOVE SSE INTO TN BY  
WED NIGHT. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SOME ADDITIONAL  
CLOUDS/LIGHT SHOWERS ESPECIALLY WITH SOME MODEST DIURNALLY DRIVEN  
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE THE EASTERN CWFA.  
AGAIN, NOT LOOKING AT ANYTHING HIGH IMPACT. IT WILL BE ANOTHER  
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY.  
 
THURSDAY: A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS OFF  
TO THE EAST AND SFC WINDS BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL (MID/UPPER 70S)  
AFTER A CHILLY MORNING START.  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFTS DURING THIS  
TIME FRAME WITH A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. WE WILL BE  
MORE INFLUENCED BY A SUBTROPICAL JET FRI-SAT. LEE SIDE SFC LOW  
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WED-THU,  
GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING INTO A SFC LOW OVER THE TX PANHANDLE BY  
THU EVENING. GULF MOISTURE WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH, WITH THE  
BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS JUST TO OUR WEST  
THU NIGHT. AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (EML) WILL OVERSPREAD THE WARM  
SECTOR (INCLUDING OUR AREA) DURING THIS TIME. COULDN'T RULE OUT  
SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING WITH AN  
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET, AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST INTO CENTRAL  
OK. BY AND LARGE, THE CAPPING UNDERNEATH THE EML WILL LIMIT RAIN  
CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY DESPITE STRONG INSTABILITY.  
 
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON-SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND A  
SFC WAVE ALONG A SFC FRONT JUST TO OUR WEST WILL INCREASE  
RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THIS TIME. CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO  
TEMPORARILY WEAKEN TOWARD EVENING FRIDAY WITH LOWERING MID LEVEL  
HEIGHTS (COOLING) AND DAYTIME HEATING. AN INCREASED NIGHTTIME LOW  
LEVEL JET WILL AID IN LIFT, BUT PROGGED GFS SOUNDINGS DO NOT HAVE  
MUCH MOISTURE ABOVE 850MB, SO AGAIN, OVERALL COVERAGE OF RAINFALL  
MAY BE FAIRLY LIMITED. ANY SURFACED BASED CONVECTION THAT COULD  
THEORETICALLY BREAK THE CAP WOULD BE ROBUST GIVEN THE INSTABILITY  
AND STRONG MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SATURDAY MAY BE THE MOST ACTIVE  
DAY AS THE SFC FRONT/FRONTAL WAVE MOVE THROUGH OUT CWFA. WEAKLY  
CAPPED STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH  
THE FRONT'S PASSAGE. MLCAPE COULD BE ON ORDER OF 4000 J/KG SAT  
WITH WINDS/LARGE HAIL THE MAIN POTENTIAL HAZARDS. WE WILL NEED TO  
WATCH HOW GUIDANCE EVOLVES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. STILL SOME  
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND POSSIBLE MESOSCALE  
INFLUENCES NOT RESOLVED BY GLOBAL MODELS THIS FAR OUT IN TIME.  
 
SUNDAY-MEMORIAL DAY MONDAY: LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF RELATIVE QUIET  
BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW  
HELPS BRING IN DRIER AIR. HOPEFULLY THIS TIMING WILL HOLD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2017  
 
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING LOWERING CEILINGS TO THE REGION  
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS APPEAR LIKELY FOR  
MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE SCATTERED SHOWERS  
AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS ENOUGH INSTABILITY  
FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO EARLY TUESDAY  
MORNING BEFORE INCREASING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A PASSING  
COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MO...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...DSA  
LONG TERM...DSA  
AVIATION...SCHAUMANN  
 
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