466  
FXUS64 KJAN 182339  
AFDJAN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS  
539 PM CST SUN FEB 18 2018  
   
UPDATE
 
 
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
00Z TAF DISCUSSION:  
A RANGE OF VFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON. AS A  
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH, CEILINGS SHOULD DROP ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT  
TO A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR. SOME VIS RESTRICTIONS WILL ALSO BE  
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH WHICH COULD BRING SOME MVFR TO  
IFR CATEGORIES. FURTHER NORTH, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AT ENOUGH OF A  
SPEED TO PRECLUDE FOG AND ALLOW MOST OF THE ISSUE TO BE LOWERED  
STRATUS. /28/  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...WEAK UPGLIDE ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUES TO  
RESULT IN SOME PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN  
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING  
NORTH, AND CONTINUING TO DO SO OVERNIGHT, THIS ACTIVITY WILL  
CONTINUE TO BE SHUNTED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WARM MOIST AIR WILL  
OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THIS  
WARM FRONT TONIGHT. STRATUS IS AGAIN EXPECTED OVERHEAD, WITH SOME  
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF  
THE AREA. LOWS MONDAY MORNING WILL BE MILD, AS THEY RANGE FROM  
THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S.  
 
THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL RESIDE NORTH OF THE CWA. HIGH  
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE, WEDGED INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST, WILL  
RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER US. ALOFT, INCREASED  
RIDGING FROM THE EAST AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES, WILL  
MAINTAIN A STEADY SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS  
WILL ALL RESULT A GOOD BIT OF CLOUDS OVERHEAD, WITH WELL ABOVE  
NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR MID-FEBRUARY. WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE  
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, HIGHS MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE  
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.  
 
THANKS TO THE SURFACE HIGH FROM THE EAST HOLDING FIRMLY OVER THE  
REGION, AND A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT SWINGING EAST TOWARDS THE  
MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH REGION, THE PRESSURE  
GRADIENT OVER US WILL TIGHTEN A BIT AS WELL ON MONDAY. THIS WILL  
RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH  
MONDAY AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE DELTA. SUSTAINED SOUTH  
WINDS ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 15 MPH, WITH GUSTS  
BETWEEN 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE. /19/  
 
MONDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND:  
 
EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE  
REGION TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST  
LOCATIONS.  
 
THE EUROPEAN MODEL CONTINUES TO BE VERY CONSISTENT WITH A SOLUTION  
OF KEEPING A FRONTAL ZONE SLOWLY ADVANCING EAST INTO THE WESTERN  
PERIPHERY OF RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A VARIETY OF BAD WEATHER,  
ESPECIALLY HEAVY RAIN, WILL BE OCCURRING OVER THE ARKLATEX AND INTO  
THE MID MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. CONVECTION  
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY HELP EDGE THE FRONT TOWARD  
THE ARKLAMISS DELTA VERY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY  
MORNING, WITH COLD POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT PROBABLY TRIGGERING  
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER INTO THE  
HEART OF OUR REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STILL FAVORING THE  
EUROPEAN SOLUTION, BUT IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THE GFS GENERALLY  
SHOWS MORE AGGRESSIVE MOVEMENT OF THE ACTUAL FRONT INTO THE AREA  
WEDNESDAY.  
 
THE EUROPEAN MODEL SUGGESTS SOME RISK OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE ARKLAMISS  
DELTA WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE ACTUAL FRONT MOVES IN  
AND STALLS, BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.  
DEBATED INCLUDING A LIMITED RISK OF FLOODING FOR THESE AREAS FOR  
THIS PERIOD IN THE HWO AND GRAPHICS, BUT THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY  
REGARDING WHETHER THE FRONT WILL ACTUALLY MOVE INTO THE CWA AND,  
EVEN IF DOES, THE 2 TO LOCALLY 3 INCHES OF RAIN THAT COULD FALL IN  
FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES OVER A 24 HOUR PERIOD COULD PROBABLY TAKE  
PLACE WITHOUT MUCH FLOODING CONCERN. IN THE END WE KEPT THE HWO  
CLEAR AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN MODELS A BIT MORE TO INCREASE  
CLARITY OF THREAT. IN ADDITION, SOME STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED  
OUT OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE REGION IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD, MAINLY OWING TO LOW-END COMBINATIONS OF WIND  
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, DEFINITELY GOING TO SIDE TOWARD  
MONITORING THIS ASPECT FURTHER BECAUSE HIGH SURFACE PRESSURES AND  
HIGH 500MB HEIGHTS ARE FAR FROM BEING CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE FOR  
SEVERE WEATHER.  
 
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL  
RETREAT OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST AND CONTINUE KEEPING BAD WEATHER MAINLY  
CLEAR OF OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE WARM AND HUMID SECTOR OVER  
OUR REGION.  
 
BY THE WEEKEND THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE A MORE CONSIDERABLE  
SHORT WAVE COMING OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AXIS COULD HAVE  
BETTER SUCCESS COMING INTO OUR REGION AS THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE AXIS  
RELENTS A BIT. THIS PERIOD WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED GOING FORWARD  
OWING TO BETTER POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD ACTIVE, AND MAYBE EVEN  
HAZARDOUS WEATHER. /BB/27/  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
JACKSON 60 81 66 82 / 10 16 13 26  
MERIDIAN 59 80 63 82 / 10 17 11 17  
VICKSBURG 61 81 65 82 / 10 11 10 26  
HATTIESBURG 61 82 64 82 / 10 22 20 24  
NATCHEZ 62 82 67 82 / 10 14 13 25  
GREENVILLE 54 78 64 80 / 11 10 9 24  
GREENWOOD 57 79 65 81 / 11 11 8 24  
 

 
   
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MS...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
AR...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
28  
 
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