713  
FXUS64 KJAN 080601  
AFDJAN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS  
1201 AM CST THU DEC 8 2016  
   
UPDATE
 
 
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
06Z TAF DISCUSSION:  
MVFR CIGS WERE OBSERVED AT MOST SITES AT 05Z AND WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT  
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION LATER  
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS  
MOST SECTIONS BY 08/15Z. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL  
DEVELOP BY 08/15Z WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS AFTER 08/18Z. /22/26/  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION, WITH SLIGHT  
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER  
30S TO MID 40S. NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. /27/  
 
PRIOR DISCUSSION BELOW:  
 
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY: CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO ERODE IN VARIOUS SPOTS  
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MANY FOLKS ARE STILL  
HAVING TO MAKE DUE WITHOUT A HINT OF SUNSHINE FOR YET ANOTHER DAY. A  
WEAK STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST HAS BEEN INSTIGATING  
THESE STUBBORN CLOUDS SINCE YESTERDAY AS MOIST, WARM AIR ABOVE THE  
SURFACE IS FORCED NORTH OVER THE SHALLOW COLD LAYER.  
 
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A MAJOR FACET TO THE FORECAST FOR ANOTHER  
DAY, BUT A RATHER BIG TIME (TEMPERATURE-WISE) SECONDARY COLD FRONT  
COMING THROUGH TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW WILL FINALLY WORK TO START  
GRADUALLY SWEEPING CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE REGION BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON  
INTO TOMORROW EVENING. IN THE MEANTIME, ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT  
COULD JUXTAPOSE WITH THIS SECONDARY FROPA TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN  
TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW, BUT MAINLY OVER  
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SOME  
CONCERNS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA THAT RAIN  
COULD BRIEFLY CHANGE OVER THE LIGHT SNOW BEFORE ENDING BUT  
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT ANY WINTRY CONCERNS SHOULD REMAIN AWAY FROM  
OUR REGION.  
 
THE TIMING OF THE BIG PUSH OF CHILLY AIR TOMORROW WILL MEAN READINGS  
IN THE MORNING RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WILL STRUGGLE  
TO MOVE UPWARDS MUCH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IN ADDITION, THE GUSTY  
NORTH WINDS TOMORROW WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD TEMPS TO MAKE WIND  
CHILLS A BIG FACTOR (ALTHOUGH STILL WELL ABOVE ADVISORY THRESHOLDS).  
/BB/  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...  
 
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM  
LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A PROGRESSIVE  
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS. THE MOST NOTABLE  
WEATHER WILL BE THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING AND  
SATURDAY MORNING AS A ROUGHLY 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE  
REGION. NORTH WINDS ON THURSDAY NIGHT MAY STAY UP JUST ENOUGH(5 TO  
10 MPH) TO MAKE SEE WIND CHILLS DROP INTO THE TEENS. ACTUAL  
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE LOW 20S ON SATURDAY MORNING WITH  
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED. FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE CHILLY WITH HIGHS  
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. THESE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE  
WARM ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE NEED FOR ANY HARD FREEZE HEADLINES OR  
MENTIONS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK, BUT AREA RESIDENTS SHOULD  
STILL TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT PETS AND EXPOSED PIPES FROM THE  
COLD TEMPERATURES. A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH  
OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AND BRING WITH IT THE  
NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE FOR RAIN. CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS  
INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT  
MOVES THROUGH, BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS. IT SHOULD BE  
NOTED THE GFS AND CMC HAVE THE FRONT CLEAR OF THE AREA MOSTLY BY  
MONDAY MORNING, THOUGH THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND KEEPS RAIN INTO THE  
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. /NF/  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
JACKSON 43 48 24 44 / 15 21 6 0  
MERIDIAN 42 50 24 45 / 13 16 4 0  
VICKSBURG 42 47 24 42 / 19 24 7 0  
HATTIESBURG 46 53 27 47 / 17 22 4 0  
NATCHEZ 43 46 26 43 / 27 33 7 0  
GREENVILLE 38 44 24 39 / 16 10 1 0  
GREENWOOD 37 45 22 40 / 15 11 1 0  
 

 
   
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MS...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
AR...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
22/BB/NF  
 
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