358  
FXUS64 KJAN 162335  
AFDJAN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS  
635 PM CDT MON OCT 16 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
 
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
00Z TAF DISCUSSION:  
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT, BUT STILL REMAIN  
AROUND 5-10KTS TONIGHT. /28/  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...LATEST RAP AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A  
STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WAS  
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT EAST OF THE REGION. UNLIKE YESTERDAY READINGS  
WERE MORE SEASONABLE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE  
LOWER 70S. GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 20-25 KNOTS WAS NOTED ACROSS THE  
REGION.  
 
FOR TONIGHT THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 MPH. IT WILL BE  
A COOL NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH  
BELOW AVERAGE LOWS FROM NEAR 40 TO THE MIDDLE 40S.  
 
FOR TUESDAY SUNNY SKIES AND CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS WILL BE THE  
GENERAL RULE WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. THE SURFACE  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AS  
SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGING TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. /17/  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND:  
 
CONSENSUS OF LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE COME IN A LITTLE MORE  
STOUTLY WITH THE WARM UP AND ALSO A LITTLE MORE VIGOROUSLY WITH  
REGARD TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENERGY DIGGING TOWARD THE SOUTH-  
CENTRAL STATES BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 
THE MORE PRONOUNCED RIDGING ALOFT BEFORE THE TROUGH IS THE BIGGEST  
DRIVER OF SOME SLIGHT INCREASES IN TEMPERATURES (IN COMPARISON TO  
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST) FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD.  
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN DRY  
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LARGE (30+ DEGREE F) DIURNAL RANGES AND  
OVERNIGHT HOURS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL STILL BE QUITE COOL AND  
PLEASANT.  
 
IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE MODELS STILL DO NOT HAVE THE RIGHT IDEA  
CONCERNING SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES TROUGH EVOLUTION TOWARD THE LATTER  
HALF OF THE PERIOD, MAINLY BECAUSE THIS TROUGH IS THE  
MANIFESTATION OF A LARGE SURGE OF PACIFIC JET STREAM ENERGY  
CASCADING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND THEN DOWN THE LEE OF  
A BUILDING RIDGE NEAR OF JUST OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  
MANY MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE THIS ENERGY EFFECTIVELY "CUTTING-OFF"  
NEAR OR JUST TO THE WEST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THE  
START OF NEXT WEEK. IF THIS HAPPENS THEN OUR REGION COULD QUICKLY  
GET INTO A CLOUDY, MOIST, AND RATHER WET PATTERN. HOWEVER, THERE  
IS CERTAINLY STILL SOME POTENTIAL ENERGY WILL FAIL TO CUT OFF AND  
COULD PASS QUICKLY TO OUR NORTH, BRINGING FAR LESS (NOT TO MENTION  
MORE SHORT-LIVED) RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW WE HAVE KEPT FROM GOING  
TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST  
PERIOD (NEXT SUNDAY/MONDAY) BUT BASICALLY HAD LITTLE CHOICE BUT TO  
AT LEAST START INTRODUCING SOME SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR MANY  
LOCATIONS BY SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY  
HAZARDOUS WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS PRETTY LOW, BUT I  
WOULD NOT EXACTLY SAY IT IS ZERO EITHER BECAUSE THERE IS A LOT OF  
JET STREAM ENERGY THAT MAY DIG SOUTH IF MODEL CONSENSUS TRENDS  
MOST AGGRESSIVELY FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. FOR NOW WE ARE  
KEEPING THE HWO CLEAR AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN THE FORECAST  
CLOSELY. /BB/  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
JACKSON 44 74 47 78 / 0 0 0 0  
MERIDIAN 44 72 46 77 / 0 0 0 0  
VICKSBURG 42 74 47 80 / 0 0 0 0  
HATTIESBURG 46 75 48 77 / 0 0 0 0  
NATCHEZ 44 74 49 79 / 0 0 0 0  
GREENVILLE 42 72 47 78 / 0 0 0 0  
GREENWOOD 42 73 46 79 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MS...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
AR...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
28  
 
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