891  
FXUS64 KJAN 290929 CCA  
AFDJAN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FORMAT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS  
427 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT,  
 
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE MS VALLEY EARLY THIS WEEK  
AND BRING SEASONABLY HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE ARKLAMISS  
AS WE APPROACH THE END OF AUGUST. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND  
TRAJECTORIES WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN RELATIVELY DRIER AIR AND THIS  
WILL HELP TO GREATLY LIMIT DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE,  
WITH THE GREATEST THREAT GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84. AFTERNOON  
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A BIT ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMAL AND WILL  
CONTRIBUTE TO HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 DEG F IN A FEW LOCATIONS, BUT THE  
OVERALL HEAT STRESS WILL BE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. /EC/  
 
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...HEADLINES IN THE EXTENDED  
INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR A GLANCING SHOT OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND  
DRIER AIR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. PLUS WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR  
THE TRACK OF TD 9 OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  
 
THE RECENT TREND TOWARD LESSER COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL  
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY, AS GREATER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS  
PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, CHANGES WILL ALREADY BE ON THE  
HORIZON AS MID/UPPER TROUGHING BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN  
CONUS. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST  
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A BRIEF SURGE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE  
FRONT WILL PROVIDE FOR SLIGHTLY GREATER RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY,  
THOUGH EXPANSIVE RAINFALL COVERAGE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS POINT.  
TEMPS THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL, WITH  
SUFFICIENT HUMIDITY FOR HEAT INDICES TOPPING OUT NEAR 100 IN MANY  
AREAS.  
 
LATEST GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD A DEEPER EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH,  
EXTENDING FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. AS A  
RESULT, THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT  
MAKING IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. THOUGH THIS FRONT WILL  
NOT BE VERY POTENT, IT LOOKS TO BRING NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WELL  
SOUTH INTO THE CWA, WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 60S AND PERHAPS  
UPPER 50S BY SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY MORNING LOW TEMPS WERE  
ADJUSTED DOWN BY AS MUCH AS 5 DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST,  
WITH MID 60S NOW ANTICIPATED IN THE UPPER DELTA AND UPPER 60S  
TEASING THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR. 00Z MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE  
NUMBERS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED EVEN LOWER IN FUTURE FORECASTS.  
UNFORTUNATELY, SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGING WILL SUPPLANT THE  
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH BEGINNING SUNDAY, THUS A RETURN TO WARMER AND  
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE FAR BEHIND.  
 
TD 9 IS NOW BEGINNING TO EMERGE INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. AFTER  
FLARING UP AND BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY YESTERDAY, IT  
HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT LESS ORGANIZED AGAIN THIS MORNING AS IT  
CONTINUES TO ENDURE NORTHERLY SHEAR. BEGINNING LATER TODAY, THE  
ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE  
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE MODELS NOW COMING INTO BETTER  
AGREEMENT ON A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH, THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE  
IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...CONTINUING WESTWARD TODAY,  
THEN BEGINNING TO TURN NORTHWARD THEN NORTHEASTWARD MIDWEEK AHEAD OF  
THE TROUGH. OF COURSE, THERE STILL REMAINS SOME DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY  
UNTIL THE SYSTEM FURTHER DEVELOPS, SO KEEP CHECKING FOR UPDATES FROM  
NHC FOR THE LATEST. /DL/  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A FEW STRAY  
SHRA/TSRA COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT SITES THIS AFTERNOON, AND CAN EXPECT  
THE TYPICAL PATCHY MVFR/IFR CATEGORY FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY  
TUESDAY MORNING. /EC/  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
JACKSON 94 75 93 74 / 10 6 7 7  
MERIDIAN 96 75 96 75 / 10 5 6 6  
VICKSBURG 94 75 95 74 / 7 8 6 6  
HATTIESBURG 93 75 93 74 / 12 9 8 8  
NATCHEZ 91 73 92 73 / 20 14 11 11  
GREENVILLE 93 74 94 74 / 10 7 6 6  
GREENWOOD 94 74 94 74 / 13 5 6 6  
 

 
   
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MS...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
AR...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
/EC/DL/  
 
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