330  
FXUS64 KJAN 300022  
AFDJAN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS  
722 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016  
   
UPDATE
 
 
THE CWA REMAINS IN A WEAKNESS BETWEEN A 591DAM SUBTROPICAL BERMUDA  
HIGH TO THE EAST AND A 594DAM HIGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH  
WEAK MID/UPPER TROUGHING JUST TO THE NORTH. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS  
ALSO NOTED OVER NW ARKANSAS. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM A COMPLEX OF  
THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH ORIGINATED ALONG A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER  
THE CENTRAL PLAINS LAST NIGHT, TRIGGERED ADDITIONAL STORMS THIS  
AFTERNOON ACROSS ARKANSAS AND WESTERN TENNESSEE. AS OF 00Z, THIS  
BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WAS LOCATED ACROSS SE ARKANSAS, N MISSISSIPPI,  
AND SW TENNESSEE AND MOVING SE. HI-RES MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH  
HANDLING THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS, THUS POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED ACROSS  
THE NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH 3Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE STORMS. A  
WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN NOTED AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH THE  
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, THEREFORE HIGHEST POPS WERE KEPT ALONG THE  
HWY 82 CORRIDOR. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE ALSO LOCATED ALONG THE  
I-20 CORRIDOR, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR  
TWO. TEMPS WERE LOWERED IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT  
FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED STORMS, AND WERE BLENDED WITH LATEST GUIDANCE  
AND PERSISTENCE ELSEWHERE. /TW/  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
FOCUS FOR THIS EVENING WILL BE THE OUTFLOW AND  
ASSOCIATED PRECIP/STORMS PUSHING SE INTO OUR NW/NORTHERN AREAS.  
INDICATIONS IS THE ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES OR  
SHORTLY AFTER IT ARRIVES INTO THE NORTHERN AREA. INITIAL WIND SHIFT  
AND GUSTS AT GLH/GWO COULD PEAK AROUND 30KTS. LOOK FOR A DECREASE IN  
SPEED, BUT STILL A WIND SHIFT FOR GTR. TIMING FOR GLH IS 0030Z, GWO  
0140Z AND GTR 04Z. OUTSIDE OF THAT, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.  
THERE WILL BE A FEW SITES BRIEFLY TOUCH MVFR VISIBILITY BETWEEN 10-  
13Z. THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR SAT LOOKS TO BE VFR. THERE WILL  
BE SOME PRECIP ACTIVITY, BUT WILL HOLD OFF RIGHT NOW ON ANY VCTS  
TIMING UNTIL THAT BECOMES MORE CLEAR. /CME/  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 313 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016/  
 
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON,  
BUT HAS MANAGED TO INITIATE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS ON THE DIFFERENTIAL  
HEATING BOUNDARY AT THE EDGE OF THE ALTOCUMULUS DECK. MEANWHILE OVER  
THE NORTHWEST, CUMULUS HAS REMAINED RATHER FLAT IN SUBSIDENT AREA  
BEHIND MCV OVER EASTERN MS. SOME CONVECTIVE POSSIBILITY WILL EXIST  
OVER THE NORTH DURING THE EVENING AS OUTFLOW FROM STORMS IN AR  
APPROACH THE AREA.  
 
ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES TO THE MID LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS DURING  
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AT PRESENT, THE NORTHERN CONUS IS DOMINATED BY  
THE WESTERLIES AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE. OVER THE SOUTH, A LARGE,  
SPRAWLING, PERSISTENT RIDGE REMAINS LOCKED IN. IN THE RIDGE OVER THE  
SOUTH REMAINS A WEAKNESS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY IN THE FORM OF A  
WEAK CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS. THIS AXIS HAS SERVED AS A FOCUS FOR WAVES  
DIPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST, AS WELL AS, WAVES MOVING ON THE  
UNDERSIDE OF THE RIDGE.  
 
THROUGH SUNDAY, THE SHEAR AXIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE PROMOTING AT  
LEAST A SCATTERING OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH DAY. FOR SUNDAY  
NIGHT INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD, THE RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO STRENGTHEN  
FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY/SOUTHERN  
PLAINS, PUTTING THE AREA INTO MORE OF A NNW MID LEVEL FLOW. WHILE  
THE INCREASED HEIGHTS WILL MEAN AN INCREASE IN TEMPS, THE NORTHERLY  
FLOW WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH ON THE EASTERN  
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH AND A CHANCE FOR DIURNAL AND NOCTURNAL  
CONVECTION.  
 
AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE, TEMPERATURES  
WILL BEGIN INCHING BACK UP AS WELL REACHING THE MID 90S BY MID WEEK.  
WITH THE MOIST GROUND FROM RECENT AND EXPECTED RAINS, AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS  
LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND 75 THROUGH THE PERIOD. THESE VALUES WITH THE  
EXPECTED INCREASE IN DAYTIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD LEAD HEAT  
INDICES TO APPROACH 105 BY MONDAY AND POSSIBLY RISING INTO THE  
105-110 RANGE BY LATE WEEK./26/  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
JACKSON 74 93 75 93 / 16 44 21 40  
MERIDIAN 74 93 75 93 / 12 50 30 41  
VICKSBURG 74 93 75 94 / 16 44 20 32  
HATTIESBURG 74 94 75 93 / 13 53 20 45  
NATCHEZ 74 92 74 92 / 17 46 20 34  
GREENVILLE 74 92 75 93 / 39 43 28 32  
GREENWOOD 73 92 74 92 / 34 39 25 31  
 

 
   
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MS...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
AR...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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