809  
FXUS64 KJAN 010835  
AFDJAN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS  
335 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016  
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
FOR THE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD, PREDAWN WATER VAPOR  
IMAGERY AND MODEL ANALYSIS SHOWED THE ARKLAMISS UNDER AN UPPER  
TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. THIS FEATURE WAS AROUND A  
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE 592 DKM HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO. LATEST  
PREDAWN SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT AROUND THE  
PIB AREA. PREDAWN TEMPS WERE IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.  
 
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE THE DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES.  
 
FOR THE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP THE  
CURRENT STATIONARY FRONT TO WAVER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY  
NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS THE  
FLAT RIDGE EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  
THE COMBINATION OF WARM HEIGHTS, STRONG CAPPING, AND WARM LOW TO  
MIDLEVEL TEMPS WILL AID IN DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE PERIOD.  
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE FROM 1-1.5 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT.  
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL INCREASE FROM 1.5 TO AROUND 2 INCHES FOR  
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. IT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LESS HUMID  
TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S, WHILE ON SATURDAY DEWPOINTS WILL  
CREEP INTO THE LOWER 70S IN SOME AREAS.  
 
AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN IT WILL BE COOL ENOUGH TO AVOID ANY HEAT  
INDEX CONCERNS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DAILY HIGHS WILL BE  
MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S. LOWS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FROM THE UPPER  
60S TO THE LOWER 70S. LOWS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER  
TO MIDDLE 70S. /17/  
   
LONG TERM
 
 
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND  
MONDAY. RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE GULF  
COAST FROM THE EAST SUNDAY RESULTING IN DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN OVER  
OUR AREA HOWEVER, SURFACE DEWPOINTS LOOK TO MIX OUT INTO THE MID TO  
UPPER 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOWER AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES  
THAN SUGGESTED IN LAST NIGHT'S MODEL RUN. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AGAIN  
95- 97F, RESULTING IN PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 101-104. RETURN FLOW  
WILL HELP THE GULF SEA BREEZE SURGE NORTH AND THE ASSOCIATED  
CONVECTION MAY SPREAD INTO OUR SOUTHERN MOST ZONES BUT, MOST OF OUR  
CWA WILL REMAIN DRY. RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL HOLD TOUGH OVER  
THE NORTHERN GULF MONDAY WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS EAST ACROSS  
THE THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MODELS AGREE THAT THIS  
SHORTWAVE WILL HELP INCREASE RAIN CHANCES OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES  
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MONDAY HOWEVER WILL BE WARM AND HUMID. PEAK  
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 101-104 ARE EXPECTED AGAIN. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH  
WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR REGION TUESDAY LEAVING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO  
STALL CLOSE TO OUR NORTHEAST ZONES. THIS FRONT WILL MAINTAIN RAIN  
CHANCES OVER THE NORTHEAST UNTIL RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT  
STRENGTHENS BACK OVER OUR CWA WEDNESDAY. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL  
INCREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS PWATS CLIMB BACK TO NEAR 2 INCHES AND  
AFTERNOON HIGHS REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S. /22/  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. PATCHY AREAS OF  
MVFR CATEGORY FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY, PARTICULARLY AT HBG/MEI.  
/17/  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
JACKSON 95 72 97 75 / 8 5 6 12  
MERIDIAN 95 68 97 74 / 8 5 6 5  
VICKSBURG 96 70 97 75 / 8 4 6 5  
HATTIESBURG 97 71 98 75 / 8 7 7 6  
NATCHEZ 94 71 95 74 / 8 6 8 7  
GREENVILLE 96 72 97 75 / 8 4 7 5  
GREENWOOD 95 71 96 73 / 8 4 7 5  
 

 
   
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MS...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
AR...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
17/22/17  
 
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