094
FXUS64 KJAN 071608 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1008 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
UPDATE
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND THE ONLY ADJ THAT WERE
NEEDED WERE TO TWEAK HOURLY TEMPS/SFC DEWPTS TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS.
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH SUN EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN
SOME HIGH CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUN. /CME/
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. LOOK FOR SUSTAINED SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS AT ALL SITES TODAY...WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 15
KNOTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DELTA REGION...KGLH AND KGWO. THESE WINDS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AT SUNSET WITH CALM TO LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE
AROUND DAY BREAK AT MOST SITES...NAMELY KMEI AND KHBG. /19/
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 405 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL POSSIBLE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE...AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH TROPICAL STORM IDA SURGES NORTH.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH
A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND WARM DAYTIME TEMPS EXPECTED TODAY.
MAV GUIDANCE LOOKED GOOD FOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT DID BUMP HIGHS A
DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED ON THE BACK
SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER INCREASING OVER
SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS EAST. MAV LOWS FOR SUN
MORNING LOOKED GOOD ALTHOUGH DID LOWER A COUPLE SPOTS A DEGREE OR
TWO BASED ON ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NICE DAY WITH
CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO INCREASE AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST. HIGHS WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL...GENERALLY
MID 70S. MAV GUIDANCE WAS ON THE LOW END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
HERE AND DID BUMP AFTERNOON HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO AT MOST SITES.
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT SOUTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV CROSSING THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...WHICH WILL REALLY OPEN THE GATE FOR GULF MOISTURE TO
INCREASE OVER THE ARKLAMISS. GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
RAIN BEGINNING TO OVERTAKE SOUTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY
MORNING AS THE SRN STREAM S/WV INTERACTS WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE ARKLAMISS AHEAD OF TROPICAL STORM IDA. THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS MUCH WARMER MONDAY.
MAV GUIDANCE DEFINITELY LOOKED LOW HERE AND BUMPED LOWS INTO THE MID
50S NORTH/UPPER 50S SOUTH IN LINE WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. /BK/
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL APPROACH THE
LOWER MS VALLEY REGION ABOUT THE SAME TIME THAT TROPICAL STORM IDA
IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
SWEEP DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOC WITH "IDA" MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO BRING
HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE AS HAS
BEEN INDICATED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST
TRACK KEEPS THE CENTER OF IDA SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE
IT LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
THE WETTER ECMWF BRINGS THE CENTER OF "IDA" FARTHER NORTH AND
CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE AND
HEAVY RAINFALL TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE GFS/GEFS
STILL KEEP HEAVIER RAIN OVER SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH FITS
BETTER WITH THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TRACK OF IDA. IN THE FORECAST
GRIDS HAVE RAISED GUIDANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY SE HALF OF THE AREA
FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THIS UPCOMING
RAINFALL EVENT. VERY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY WILL
KEEP RAINFALL FROM BEING OVERLY HEAVY...BUT A LONG DURATION OF
MODERATE RAINFALL WILL ALLOW TOTALS TO TOP THE TWO INCH MARK...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG THE I-59 CORRIDOR WHERE FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES HAPPEN TO BE HIGHEST (WELL ABOVE TWO IN/HR).
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL
ALLOW THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN QUICKLY TUESDAY
WITH OUR SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOC RAINFALL ZIPPING BY TO THE EAST.
A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ARKLAMISS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMATIC AVERAGE.
THERE ARE INDICATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE LATEST ECMWF...THAT RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
REDEVELOPS OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. HAVE GONE
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW IN THE FORECAST. /EC/
AVIATION...VFR CONDS GENERALLY XPCTD THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES
DOMINATES THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN LGT AND SRLY THIS MORNING
WITH SRLY WINDS INCREASING THIS AFTN. A FEW GUSTS TO 15KTS MAY BE
POSSIBLE IN THE DELTA 18-23Z. LGT ERLY WINDS XPCTD OVRNGT. LOW LVL
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY...AND MAY ALLOW SOME MVFR/IFR
FOG/CIGS TO DEVELOP IN SRN AREAS TOMORROW MORNING. /BK/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 77 47 75 57 / 0 0 0 25
MERIDIAN 76 40 74 56 / 0 0 0 20
VICKSBURG 77 49 76 57 / 0 0 0 24
HATTIESBURG 77 46 76 57 / 0 0 2 31
NATCHEZ 77 53 75 59 / 0 0 0 35
GREENVILLE 74 47 75 54 / 0 0 0 13
GREENWOOD 74 46 76 55 / 0 0 0 13
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
JAN
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