789  
FXUS64 KJAN 311536 AAA  
AFDJAN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS  
1036 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016  
   
UPDATE
 
MORNING CONVECTION IS SLOWLY MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN  
PART OF THE CWA THIS MORNING LEAVING MUCH OF THE REGION DRY. CLOUD  
DEBRIS IS HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO WARM THIS  
MORNING. DESPITE THE FACT THAT WE ARE ALREADY SEEING TEMPERATURES IN  
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S, READINGS THIS MORNING ARE ACTUALLY ABOUT 2  
TO 6 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. HI-RES GUIDANCE  
INDICATES THAT AFTERNOON CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY CONCENTRATED  
IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AND THE HIGHER POPS ARE  
ARRANGED AS SUCH. OTHER ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST ARE IN GOOD SHAPE AND  
UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SHIPPED. /28/  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TODAY AND INTO THE  
EVENING HOURS. SOME VERY ISOLATED SPOTS OF IFR WILL BE AROUND THIS  
AFTERNOON IN THE MIDST OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS  
WILL BE LIGHT TODAY...EXPECT AROUND AREAS OF STORMS. PATCHY FOG WILL  
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH BY 06Z AFFECTING MAINLY KHBG. THE FOG  
WILL LIFT BY 13Z./17/  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 440 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/  
 
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A MODEST UPPER LEVEL  
DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM THE ARKLATEX AND ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN  
PORTION OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HAS BEEN PRODUCING A DECENT  
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ARKLAMISS DELTA  
OVERNIGHT. THE BULK OF THIS SHORT WAVE ENERGY SHOULD TRANSLATE NORTH  
OF THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND THE SOLID COVERAGE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWESTERN ZONES SHOULD FADE  
GRADUALLY. HOWEVER, THE GENERALLY PERTURBED UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN  
THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE REGION WITH A WEAK LOWER TROPOSPHERIC  
CONVERGENCE ZONE (WHICH HELPED INITIATE SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS  
YESTERDAY IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES) MIGRATING A LITTLE FURTHER  
EAST. THE SHIFTING ALIGNMENT OF THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE SHOULD SPREAD  
AFTERNOON SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TO PREDOMINANTLY CENTRAL AND  
EASTERN AREAS OF MISSISSIPPI AND WILL PROBABLY (HOPEFULLY) KEEP  
TEMPERATURES FROM PEAKING WELL ABOVE LEVELS ANTICIPATED THE LAST FEW  
DAYS. EVEN WITH THAT EXPECTATION, MAXIMUMS COULD STILL HIT THE MID  
90S IN A FEW SPOTS AND IN THESE PARTICULAR LOCALES SURFACE-BASED  
INSTABILITY WILL BE BORDERING ON HIGH WITH ATMOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES  
AND OTHER ASPECTS OF PARAMETER SPACE SUGGESTING SOME GUSTY WINDS  
RISK WILL RESULT FROM WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON  
WHETHER THIS MICROBURST POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO YIELD MORE  
THAN A FEW VERY ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WE WILL NOT YET MENTION A  
LIMITED SEVERE RISK IN THE HWO, BUT INSTEAD WILL DEFER DECISION TO  
THE MORNING UPDATE AFTER THEY GET SOME CRITICAL CLUES FROM EXAMINING  
THE 12Z JAN SOUNDING.  
 
EXPECT MOST OF THE CONVECTION TODAY TO BE DONE IN THE EVENING HOURS  
WITH LITTLE SUGGESTION IN MODELS OF ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED  
SHOWERS AND STORMS HANGING ON IN NORTHWESTERN ZONES INTO THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS (I.E., NO REPEAT OF WHAT HAS BEEN GOING ON THE LAST  
SEVERAL HOURS IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA). LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD  
WITH MAYBE SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.  
 
ON WEDNESDAY, A MORE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UPPER TROUGH ENERGY WILL  
START APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS AN UPPER  
LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AT LEAST BRIEFLY PHASES WITH A  
TRANSITORY DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM. IN  
RESPONSE, EXPECT SOUTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION ALTHOUGH  
GULF MOISTURE ADVECTION TRAJECTORIES ARE NOT THE BEST TO KEEP A DEEP  
FEED OF MOISTURE-LADEN AIR COMING UP INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH.  
STILL THINKING THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INGREDIENTS TO SPAWN ISOLATED TO  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY WITH THE  
BETTER SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM PEAKING  
QUITE AS HOT. THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE  
FEED ALIGNMENT WILL JUST START TOUCHING FAR WESTERN ZONES LATE  
TOMORROW NIGHT, WHERE CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL LINGER THROUGH THE  
OVERNIGHT. /BB/  
 
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COOLER AND WETTER  
PATTERN IS STILL EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A STALLED COLD  
FRONT WILL BE JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA THURSDAY WHILE A WEAK  
SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS LOW A RATHER MOIST AIR MASS WITH ABOVE NORMAL  
PWATS AROUND AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS WILL RESIDE OVER OUR REGION.  
THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE CLOSED LOW AND THE STALLED COLD FRONT  
WILL LEAD TO GREATER RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY WITH THE GREATEST RAIN  
CHANCES OVER OUR NORTHWEST ZONES. THE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND  
ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSOLATION AND RESULT IN COOLER  
AFTERNOON HIGHS. THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE THAT THIS CLOSED LOW WILL  
LINGER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE  
WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN TROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER  
AND RAIN CHANCES OVER OUR CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE WEAKENING  
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE REPLACED OVER OUR CWA BY A  
DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL  
ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL SEND A  
COLD FRONT INTO OUR CWA SUNDAY. THE GFS PUSHES THIS COLD FRONT TO  
THE GULF COAST BY MONDAY MORNING WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR OVER OUR  
CWA ENDING RAIN CHANCES. THE ECMWF STALLS THE COLD FRONT MONDAY JUST  
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND MAINTAINS RAIN CHANCES OVER OUR CWA.  
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF AND KEPT POPS IN FOR MONDAY BUT HAVE  
TENDED DRIER FOR MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS  
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY BUT MORNING LOWS WILL CONTINUE AT  
OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. /22/  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
JACKSON 92 68 90 70 / 33 21 25 22  
MERIDIAN 94 67 92 68 / 36 17 24 18  
VICKSBURG 91 69 90 69 / 24 23 25 25  
HATTIESBURG 94 68 92 69 / 40 19 20 10  
NATCHEZ 91 68 88 69 / 20 19 19 18  
GREENVILLE 91 70 89 69 / 29 26 37 34  
GREENWOOD 92 70 90 69 / 42 21 37 29  
 

 
   
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MS...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
AR...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
JAN/JAN/  
 
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