855  
FXUS64 KJAN 281054  
AFDJAN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS  
554 AM CDT WED JUN 28 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
 
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
12Z TAF DISCUSSION:  
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT MOST SITES. A  
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXIST TODAY,  
PARTICULARLY FOR TAF SITES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. HAVE INCLUDED  
MENTION OF VCTS FOR HBG/MEI WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN STORMS  
AFFECTING THE SITE, BUT LEFT OUT OF JAN/HKS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS  
LOWER BUT MAY NEED TO BE ADDED LATER. STORMS COULD BRING BRIEF  
MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS. OTHERWISE, SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL  
TODAY AROUND 10-15KTS AT ALL TAF SITES. LOW CLOUDS AND/OR PATCHY  
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT/CLOSER TO DAYBREAK.  
/28/  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
TODAY AND TONIGHT:  
 
OUR STRETCH OF PLEASANT WEATHER HAS COME TO AN END. THE LARGE  
UPPER TROUGH HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST, AND THE SURFACE HIGH ALSO  
HAS BECOME CENTERED MORE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THIS HAS  
HELPED OUR WINDS SWITCH AROUND OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH  
TODAY. THIS WILL HELP MOISTURE FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION.  
DEWPOINTS WILL RETURN TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ACROSS THE  
ARKLAMISS. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM THE  
SOUTH TODAY, AS VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 2.1 INCHES IN THE PINE BELT  
THIS AFTERNOON TO 1.5 INCHES NEAR THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. AS  
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S, AND COMBINE  
WITH THE INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH LINGERING OVER THE  
NORTHERN GULF, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR  
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOULD INITIATE IN THE SOUTH AND MOVE  
NORTH. THE GREATEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE SOUTH OF I-20, AND CLOSER  
TO THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR. MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL  
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME  
COULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE EAST, BUT THUS FAR  
HAVE LEFT THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY  
THURSDAY COULD BEGIN RATHER EARLY IN THE MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS  
WILL BE RATHER MILD IN THE LOWER 70S. /28/  
 
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:  
 
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH  
AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE ON DAYTIME  
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND A WARMING TREND IN HIGH TEMPERATURES.  
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT  
WESTWARD OVER THE GULF COAST BY THE WEEKEND, KEEPING MOIST  
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THAT TIME. MEANWHILE A  
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OF VARYING STRENGTH WILL MOVE ACROSS  
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE  
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE  
70S, LEADING TO DECENT INSTABILITY. WIND SHEAR WILL BE FAIRLY  
WEAK (0-6 KM SHEAR LESS THAN 15 KTS MOST DAYS), AS MOST OF THE  
UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY STAYING TO OUR NORTH. THEREFORE ORGANIZED  
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
MODELS DO INDICATE THAT DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR WITH STEEPER LAPSE  
RATES COULD EDGE INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND, SO WE WILL CONTINUE  
TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MICROBURSTS DURING THAT TIME. /NF/  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
JACKSON 88 71 84 73 / 36 20 62 27  
MERIDIAN 87 71 83 72 / 34 20 69 34  
VICKSBURG 88 71 85 73 / 26 20 57 25  
HATTIESBURG 85 70 82 72 / 50 40 73 34  
NATCHEZ 86 71 83 73 / 43 35 63 28  
GREENVILLE 88 71 85 73 / 9 8 39 21  
GREENWOOD 88 71 85 73 / 5 10 46 21  
 

 
   
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MS...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
AR...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
28  
 
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