103
FXUS64 KJAN 190639
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
139 AM CDT FRI APR 19 2024
..NEW AVIATION
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT THU APR 18 2024
NOW THAT THINGS HAVE QUIETED DOWN IN TERMS OF CONVECTION, ONE OF
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS GOING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE FOR DENSE FOG IN THE SOUTHEAST
GIVEN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT COOLING IN THE VERY HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. HAVE MAINTAINED THE LIMITED
DENSE FOG THREAT FOR NOW BUT IT WOULDN'T BE TOO SURPRISING IF WE
EVENTUALLY NEED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN THE PINE BELT REGION.
OTHERWISE, WE'LL BE MONITORING STORMS CURRENTLY WELL TO THE NORTH
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK. MOST GUIDANCE SHOW THAT
STORMS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THEY ENTER OUR AREA, AND THIS AT
LEAST SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE DIMINISHING INSTABILITY AND
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. HAVING SAID, THE SPRING SEASON ALWAYS
THROWS IN A FEW WRINKLES WHEN IT COMES TO FORECASTING CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION, SO DON'T BE SURPRISED IF THERE ARE A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS IN THE BOLIVAR COUNTY AREA BEFORE
DAYBREAK. /EC/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU APR 18 2024
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW: THE SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING THREAT IN
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST AS A SLIGHT AND MARGINAL RISK AREAS FOR SEVERE
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO
60MPH, HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZED, SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS FOR THIS EVENT AS WELL AS A TORNADO NOT BEING
ABLE TO BE BE RULED OUT. FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NEAR
THE ARKLAMS BORDERS DUE TO THE REPETITIVE NATURE OF THE
FORECASTED STORMS HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE SAME AREA. WHILE WE
STILL EXPECT THIS TO BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM EVENT, IF STORMS DO
FORM THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WHICH
COULD PRODUCE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZED, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
A TORNADO CANT BE RULED OUT. THE TIMING OF THE MAIN BRUNT OF THIS
WEATHER WILL LAST UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AS STORMS WRAP UP
EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TO REMAIN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE I-20 WITH BEST CHANCES
ABOVE HWY-82. GOING INTO THE MORNING DENSE PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS EXCESS
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE DEVELOPMENT EASY AND MORE
LIKELY DUE TO PERSISTENCE. GOING INTO THE EARLY MORNING A COLD
FRONT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DROPPING INTO THE CWA ALLOWING
RAIN CHANCES IN THE NORTH TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
BOUNDARY MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD./KP/
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: THE PATTERN CHANGE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO REFOCUSES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING BECOMES MORE PREVALENT OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND TOWARD THE MID- SOUTH BEHIND A COLD
FRONT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IT SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR AND INITIALLY
COOLER WEATHER TO THE GULF COAST REGION. FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA
WILL BE MOSTLY ZONAL IN THE EARLY TO MIDWEEK TIME FRAME, AND IT'S
POSSIBLE A SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH OF OUR AREA AND ITS ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
SYSTEM GLANCES BY OUR REGION. FOR NOW, POPS ARE AN UNCERTAIN 20
PERCENT FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD. /NF/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT FRI APR 19 2024
LOW STRATUS/FOG EXPECTED TO BE MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, WITH SOME ALREADY DEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN TAF
SITES. LIFR/IFR REMAINS LIKELY, WITH VLIFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES PSBL,
DUE TO LOW STRATUS/DENSE FOG. PRIMARY DENSE FOG CONCERNS REMAIN
IN THE PIB/HBG AREAS ONCE AGAIN. EXPECT ANY LOW VSBY IMPROVEMENTS
AFTER 19/14Z & CEILINGS TO LIFT LATER IN THE MORNING WITH DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING & MVFR/VFR CATEGORIES SHOULD PREVAIL BY AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE PERSISTENT LOWERED MVFR CEILINGS IN NORTHERN TAF
SITES OF GLH, GWO & THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTION BUT SOME COULD SNEAK IN THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR
NEAR OR JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. SOME SCATTERED SHRA OR VCTS IS
PSBL INTO THE AFTN, MAINLY NEAR GTR, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INTRODUCE IN THE 06Z TAF CYCLE. PERSISTENCE IS LIKELY AGAIN THIS
EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW LIFR/IFR STRATUS & PSBL FOG
NEAR PIB & HBG. /DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 82 64 73 52 / 20 10 50 80
MERIDIAN 87 62 75 51 / 20 20 40 70
VICKSBURG 80 61 70 51 / 20 10 50 80
HATTIESBURG 87 66 83 58 / 10 10 40 60
NATCHEZ 85 64 76 53 / 10 10 30 70
GREENVILLE 72 56 63 51 / 20 30 70 80
GREENWOOD 74 57 65 50 / 20 20 60 70
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/NF/DC
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