135  
FXUS64 KJAN 121140  
AFDJAN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS  
540 AM CST TUE DEC 12 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
 
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
12Z TAF DISCUSSION:  
A COLD FRONT MADE ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT.  
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS MORNING AND THEN WILL  
RELAX THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SITES MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS OR SO  
THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR  
ALL SITES. /10/  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
TODAY AND TONIGHT:  
 
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING OUT OF THE AREA TODAY AND BRING  
GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPS. THE ACCOMPANIED DRY COLD FRONT  
CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. AT THIS  
TIME, IT SITS IN A LINE FROM MERIDIAN TO MCCOMB AND SOUTHWESTWARD.  
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR TODAY. HIGHS IN  
THE 50S TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. THE  
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS BREEZY THIS MORNING BEFORE THE  
GRADIENT RELAXES THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST.  
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WILL BE COMMON THROUGHOUT THE AREA  
WHILE GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALLOW  
WINDS TO CALM TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. /10/  
 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY:  
 
THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE FROM A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TO A MORE  
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WHICH WILL BE MORE INFLUENCED  
BY PACIFIC AIRMASSES DURING THE PERIOD. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL COME  
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD BEFORE WE GET A LATE PERIOD  
FRONT THAT WILL BRING SOME RAIN FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN THIS  
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM SOME FROM THE  
WEST ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A DRY COLD FRONT  
THROUGH ON THURSDAY. WE WILL GET A QUICK WARMUP ON SATURDAY AS WE  
DEVELOP HIGHER HEIGHTS IN ZONAL FLOW FROM THE WEST. READINGS WILL GO  
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. MODELS SHOWS BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOR  
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING ON MONDAY. THE GFS  
AND EURO ALONG WITH ITS ENSEMBLES SHOWED BETTER QPF COVERAGE  
ON THE 00Z RUN. THE EURO MODEL WAS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE SYSTEM  
THEN ITS ENSEMBLES AS WELL AS THE GFS. SO OPTED TO GO WITH THE  
BLENDED SOLUTION OF THE SUPERBLEND POPS.  
 
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERN DAILY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S  
AND 60S. NIGHTLY LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S BEFORE WARMING TO THE 40S  
OVER THE WEEKEND THEN 30S AND 40S FOR MONDAY. ON TUESDAY THE  
COMBINATION OF SOME LOW 30S HUMIDITY AND SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS IN  
THE DELTA REGION WILL WARRANT A LIMITED RISK OF FIRE DANGER  
CONDITIONS./17/  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
JACKSON 56 29 59 37 / 0 0 0 2  
MERIDIAN 55 28 57 36 / 0 0 1 2  
VICKSBURG 56 29 59 36 / 0 0 0 2  
HATTIESBURG 57 29 59 38 / 0 0 1 1  
NATCHEZ 56 30 59 37 / 0 0 0 2  
GREENVILLE 51 29 59 36 / 0 0 1 2  
GREENWOOD 51 28 59 35 / 0 0 1 2  
 

 
   
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MS...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
AR...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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