505  
FXUS64 KJAN 222331 AAA  
AFDJAN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS  
531 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
 
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
00Z TAF DISCUSSION:  
 
EXPECT SHOWERS AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE REGION WELL INTO  
THE NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. POTENTIAL FOR  
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL SITES IS NOW VERY LOW. EXPECT ANY VFR CONDITIONS  
NOW TO TREND TO MVFR IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH POCKETS OF IFR  
CEILINGS ANTICIPATED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WEST TO  
NORTHWEST WILL ALSO BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY OVER ALL AREAS, EARLIEST  
AND PARTICULARLY SO AT GLH/GWO WHERE GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE  
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIE DOWN TOMORROW WITH MOST SITES  
TRENDING TO ALL VFR BY LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY. /BB/  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY:  
THE UPPER COLD CORE LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER EAST MISSISSIPPI THIS  
EVENING WITH LIGHT RAINSHOWERS ON THE BACK SIDE MOVING SOUTHEAST  
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST  
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND WILL END FOR THE MOST PART BY MIDNIGHT,  
BUT SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT  
HOURS IN THE SOUTH. THE MAIN ISSUE THIS EVENING WILL BE VERY GUSTY  
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH LIKELY IN THE DELTA  
FROM EARLY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS  
ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A COOL NIGHT  
AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 40S.  
 
MONDAY WILLS START OUT CLOUDY, BUT THE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM WEST  
TO EAST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS UPPER  
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN OVER THE AREA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE  
MID 50S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOW 60S IN THE SOUTH. /15/  
 
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MUCH QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED  
THROUGH THE WEEK AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN  
STORE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS  
SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER OUR CWA MONDAY WILL SHIFT EAST MONDAY NIGHT  
AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.  
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW WILL LIFT OUT FROM THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH INTO  
THE PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE GREAT  
LAKES REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BEGIN OVER  
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE  
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. OUR AIRMASS WILL START OF WITH A PWAT LESS  
THAN A HALF INCH TUESDAY MORNING AND ONLY INCREASE JUST ABOVE THREE  
QUARTERS OF AN INCH BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OUR WESTERN  
ZONES WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS AGREE THAT THAT LIGHT SHOWERS  
DEVELOP ALONG FRONT AND SPREAD INTO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES PRIOR TO  
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY  
WEDNESDAY MOVING OUT DURING THE EVENING. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL  
FILTER INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. MOST SITES  
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30S  
THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT  
WHILE A SURFACE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER OUR CWA. AFTERNOON  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL IN THE LOW  
TO MID 50S. OUR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY THEN BECOME  
NORTHWESTERLY SATURDAY AS MID LEVEL TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE  
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE IN FROM  
THE WEST MAINTAINING DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. /22/  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
JACKSON 45 57 37 70 / 61 0 0 1  
MERIDIAN 46 58 35 67 / 53 7 0 1  
VICKSBURG 44 58 36 70 / 41 0 0 1  
HATTIESBURG 48 61 39 69 / 33 3 0 1  
NATCHEZ 44 61 40 72 / 26 0 0 1  
GREENVILLE 42 54 37 65 / 75 1 0 1  
GREENWOOD 43 54 35 67 / 84 4 0 1  
 

 
   
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025-034-035-  
040-041.  
 
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR LAZ007>009.  
 
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR ARZ074-075.  
 

 
 

 
 
15/22/BB  
 
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