838  
FXUS64 KJAN 300157  
AFDJAN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS  
857 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016  
   
UPDATE
 
A LARGE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL KY  
THIS EVENING WITH PLENTY OF DRY COOL AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA  
BEHIND LAST NIGHT'S RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE VERY FALL-LIKE AND THE COOLEST WE'VE SEEN  
SINCE MID MAY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBS INDICATE A BAND OF  
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR ROTATING AROUND THE  
UPPER LOW. THIS CLOUD COVER HAS SLOWED THE RATE OF COOLING ACROSS  
SOME OF OUR NORTHERN LOCATIONS, BUT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN THE  
VERY DRY ENVIRONMENT. LATEST OBS ALSO INDICATED THAT THE BOUNDARY  
LAYER HAS ALREADY DECOUPLED AT MULTIPLE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA WITH  
RADIATIONAL COOLING WELL UNDERWAY. THE ONLY CHANGES FOR THIS FORECAST  
UPDATE WERE TO LOWER THE MIN TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON LATEST  
GUIDANCE AND TRENDS, ADJUST THE HOURLY TEMPS ACCORDINGLY, AND UPDATE  
THE CLOUD COVER. /TW/  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
A BAND OF STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE DROPPING SOUTH THIS EVENING  
RESULTING IN VFR CEILINGS AT GTR. THE CEILING LOOKS TO LOWER FROM  
30/12Z TO 30/18Z AT GWO AND GTR, RISING TO VFR THEREAFTER./26/  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 331 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016/  
 
DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW  
DROPPING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY COULD BRING A FEW  
CLOUDS TO THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE AREA OVERNIGHT AND ON FRIDAY.  
OTHERWISE, WITH HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION AND  
CONTINUED NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT, LOOK  
FOR CONTINUED COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS WE HEAD  
INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 
UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT, EXCEPT THOSE FEW CLOUDS MEANDERING ABOUT  
ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI, LOWS WILL BE CHILLY AS THEY FALL INTO  
THE LOW AND MIDDLE 50S. ON FRIDAY, HIGHS WILL REBOUND A DEGREE OR  
TWO COMPARED TO THURSDAY, BUT WILL STILL ONLY TOP OUT AROUND THE 80  
DEGREE MARK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI  
WHERE VERY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS WILL HELP PROMOTE SLIGHTLY WARMER  
HIGHS COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE CWA. THEN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, LOWS  
WILL AGAIN FALL INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 50S. /19/  
 
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY QUIET  
EXTENDED FORECAST IS ON TAP FOR THE ARKLAMISS. UPPER TROUGHING WILL  
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO  
VALLEY CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE MODELS DO SUGGEST A  
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON,  
WITH THIS BOUNDARY MAINLY BEING A WIND SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHEAST  
FLOW. A NICE DAY IS ON TAP FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING INTO  
THE LOW 80S. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE  
WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SUNDAY  
MORNING. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S.  
 
THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST WARMER H850/H925 TEMPS ON SUNDAY, THUS  
EXPECT WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF  
BEGIN TO BUILD UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY  
WITH A WARMING TREND BEGINNING. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE  
MID 80S, AND AS UPPER HEIGHTS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY  
AND WEDNESDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO  
AROUND 90 DEGREES. THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH DEEPEN AN UPPER TROUGH OVER  
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE ECMWF THE FASTER OF THE  
MODELS. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS SOME PRECIP OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY  
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE PRECIP WEST OF THE AREA  
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WILL INTRODUCE JUST SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER  
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. /15/  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
JACKSON 53 80 54 83 / 0 0 0 0  
MERIDIAN 52 84 52 86 / 0 0 0 0  
VICKSBURG 52 80 53 84 / 0 0 0 0  
HATTIESBURG 54 82 56 84 / 0 0 0 0  
NATCHEZ 52 80 56 81 / 0 0 0 0  
GREENVILLE 54 79 55 83 / 0 0 0 1  
GREENWOOD 51 78 53 82 / 0 1 0 1  
 

 
   
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MS...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
AR...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
19/15  
 
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