464  
FXUS64 KMOB 221204 AAA  
AFDMOB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
704 AM CDT TUE MAY 22 2018  
   
DISCUSSION
 
UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 22.18Z THEN  
MOSTLY MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILTIES THROUGH ABOUT 23.03Z THEN MOSTLY  
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 23.18Z. LOWER CIGS AND VISIBILITIES MAINLY  
IN AND AROUND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 5 KNOTS OR  
LESS EARLY TODAY BECOMING MOSTLY SOUTH AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS THIS  
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND  
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND MOST OF WED MORNING. 32/EE  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 446 AM CDT TUE MAY 22 2018/  
 
NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...A WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR THE  
TEXAS COAST COMBINED WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED  
OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF AND FL PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO  
ALLOW BETTER MOISTURE TO ADVECT INLAND ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL  
GULF STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SLIGHTLY  
HIGHER PWATS ACROSS MOST AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND  
TONIGHT AVERAGING AROUND 1.7 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT. MARGINAL  
INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO NOTED, SIMILAR TO THE LAST  
FEW DAYS, LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS  
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY CONTINUING THROUGH  
MOST OF TONIGHT. THE BEST LIFT LOOKS TO BE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE  
COAST AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING SHIFTING INLAND LATER THIS MORNING  
MOSTLY OVER EXTREME EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THEN  
ACROSS THE MOST CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA  
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SIMILIAR TO YESTERDAY EXPECT  
GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS, FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND  
PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH MOST OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS  
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. DUE TO RECENT RAINS AND A  
SATURATED GROUND SURFACE SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE,  
ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS AND AREAS PRONE TO POOR DRAINAGE, LATER  
IN THE DAY CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  
 
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL  
CONTINUE TO BE MODERATED SOMEWHAT WITH HIGHS CLIMBING TO THE MID 80S  
FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, INCLUDING THE  
IMMEDIATE COAST, AND THE UPPER 80S TO THE WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL  
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE  
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE  
 
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MID/UPPER LEVEL  
RIDGING OVER INTERIOR EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY DRIFTS EAST  
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND APPROACHES THE EAST COAST BY LATE TUESDAY  
NIGHT. MEANWHILE A BROAD AND WEAK MID/UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE  
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY DOWN TO  
THE SURFACE THURSDAY INTO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH A NUMBER OF  
MODELS INDICATING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BY LATE  
THURSDAY NIGHT. EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO  
BRING ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND COMBINED  
WITH THE WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED TO OCNLY NUMEROUS  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE, A FEW  
STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A  
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY  
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE  
FLOW INCREASES AS A RESULT OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE  
AREA IN THE CENTRAL GULF. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S  
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. 12/DS  
 
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW  
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COULD TRANSITION INTO A TROPICAL,  
WARM CORE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BY FRIDAY AND THEN LIKELY  
DRIFT NORTH TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL REGION THROUGH THE  
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH A FEW MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP IT  
CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. NHC IS NOW INDICATING A 40  
PERCENT CHANCE OF A SOME GRADUAL SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL  
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY  
NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS  
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST MOVEMENT AND STRENGTH OF  
THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTH TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF  
COAST. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS ANY REAL SPECIFICS WITH  
THIS SYSTEM, BUT THE OVERALL DEVELOPING PATTERN DOES CONTINUE TO  
SUPPORT AT LEAST LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF COAST REGION  
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM  
OTHER IMPACTS SUCH AS POTENTIAL FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS, AS WELL SOME  
MARINE HAZARDS SUCH AS MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND HIGH SURF AND  
INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG AREA BEACHES MAY HAVE TO BE  
ADDRESSED AS WELL. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION.  
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM,  
ALTHOUGH DAYTIME HIGHS COULD BE A LITTLE LOWER BY THE WEEKEND DUE  
TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. 12/DS  
 
MARINE...A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF COMBINED WITH A  
WEAK UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF  
WILL HELP MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER  
THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THU. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THU WITH THE BEST  
COVERAGE OCCURRING NEAR THE COAST AND OVER INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS.  
BY LATE THU INTO FRI A DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL  
GULF WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTHWARD LEADING TO A MODERATE TO  
OCCASIONALLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA LATE IN THE  
WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME EASTERLY WINDS POSSIBLY  
NEAR SMALL CRAFT LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER  
THE WEEKEND. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY  
THE IMPACTS TO THE MARINE AREA ARE SUBJECT CHANGE EACH DAY AS WE  
NEAR THE WEEKEND. BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
WILL BE LIKELY WITH THIS PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEK. STAY TUNED TO  
LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO ON THIS DEVELOPING  
WEATHER PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. 32/EE  
 

 
   
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...NONE.  
FL...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:  
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab AL Page
The Nexlab FL Page
The Nexlab MS Page Main Text Page