792
FXUS64 KMOB 042341
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
641 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2008
AVIATION
SIMILAR PATTERN OF THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS CONTINUES WITH
FEW LOW AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE EVENING HOURS AFTER THE
EVENING CONVECTION HAS ENDED. SOME LOW BASED CUMULUS CLOUDS ADVANCE
FROM OFFSHORE/NEAR THE COASTLINE INLAND DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY NEAR 14/15Z.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY NEAR 17Z...SLIGHTLY EARLIER
CLOSER TO SHORE...WITH CEILINGS NEAR 5 KFT. A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORM OCCURRENCE AT THE AIRPORTS WILL BE DURING THE EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON HOURS WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY 3 KFT. /29
*** PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***
SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND SATURDAY]...UNFORTUNATELY
EVENING
BARBECUES MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH LINGERING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CARRYING OVER FROM THE AFTERNOON. NOT LOOKING FOR A COMPLETE WASHOUT
THOUGH...BUT LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS WILL BRING ABOUT DELAYS
IN THE INDEPENDENCE DAY COOKING PLANS. SOME OF THE EVENING STORMS
COULD BE STRONG AT TIMES AND CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM. HOWEVER...FORECASTERS ANTICIPATE COVERAGES OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO DECREASE DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF
INSTABILITY. CLOUD DEBRIS FROM DECAYED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
ANTICIPATED TO BE HIGH ENOUGH AS TO NOT IMPACT FIRE WORKS VIEWING IN
MOST AREAS LATER IN THE EVENING. THE GULF COAST REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER
ATMOSPHERE...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC INTO THE GULF. WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE
WATERS 1.8 TO 2 INCHES) ALONG WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY...ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM INITIATING
ON WEAK MESOSCALE/SEA/BAY BREEZE BOUNDARIES ON SATURDAY. LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH LOWS NEAR 70 INLAND TO MID
70S COAST AND DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR 90. /10
LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
PERSIST FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...ROUGHLY 30 TO 50
PERCENT...PRIMARILY FROM THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING AND
NEAR THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ALSO WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL. 10/11
AVIATION
EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO BE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS
WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING INTO THE EVENING. MAY GET DOWN TO MVFR
CEILINGS BRIEFLY IN MORNING WITH TSTMS IN VCNTY SATURDAY NEAR THE
COASTAL SITES. /10
MARINE
DID NOT SEE ANYTHING IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE TO MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO WHAT IS OFFERED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES FROM THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. SOUTHERLY DAYTIME WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT FROM
AN EASTERLY DIRECTION LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING NEXT WEEK. SEAS 1 TO 2
FEET. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. 05/10
FIRE WEATHER
NO HEADLINES. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES REMAIN WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS. /10
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 72 89 71 88 / 20 40 30 60
PENSACOLA 75 90 73 86 / 20 40 30 60
DESTIN 76 88 75 87 / 20 40 30 60
EVERGREEN 69 89 69 88 / 20 40 30 60
WAYNESBORO 69 90 68 89 / 20 30 40 50
CAMDEN 69 89 69 88 / 20 40 40 60
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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