978  
FXUS64 KMOB 160435 AAC  
AFDMOB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
1135 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2018  
   
DISCUSSION
 
UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION  
OF SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WELL INLAND  
AND NEAR THE COAST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS  
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY THEN DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING  
HOURS. GUSTY WINDS AND IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE  
STORMS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL SWITCH TO A  
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. /29  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 945 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2018/  
 
DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION FOR LAND AREAS BELOW.  
 
UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING TO  
HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH  
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WELL  
INLAND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MADE ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO  
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2018/  
 
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 
AVIATION...  
00Z ISSUANCE...SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS OVER THE AREA WILL  
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS  
PREVAIL OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR SOME POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR  
CONDITIONS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP  
AGAIN ON MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA, AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE  
POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS ALONG WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT AND  
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS ON  
MONDAY. /29  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2018/  
 
NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE, SURFACE AND  
ALOFT, WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. WITH  
CONTINUED HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT, EXPECT MAINLY  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE.  
CONVECTION DEVELOPED MUCH EARLIER TODAY THAN ON SATURDAY, AND WILL  
LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE  
FORECAST AREA, ESPECIALLY INLAND AREAS. AFTER MOST OF THE  
CONVECTION DYING OUT OVERNIGHT, EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED  
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY. WITH PWAT'S EXPECTED TO  
BY IN THE +2.0 INCH RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD, LOCALLY HEAVY  
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. TWO DAY QPF TOTALS (TODAY THROUGH  
MONDAY) ARE FORECAST TO BE LOCALLY UP TO AROUND 2.5 INCHES (WITH  
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE), ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN  
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TOTALS REGION. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR MINOR,  
LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS, BUT THAT THREAT SHOULD REMAIN  
RELATIVELY LOW THROUGH MONDAY (BUT POTENTIALLY INCREASE LATER IN  
THE WEEK AS MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP).  
VERY HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. THE EARLIER ONSET OF  
CONVECTION TODAY LIMITED THE HEAT IN SOME AREAS TODAY, BUT STILL  
VERY HOT IN OTHER LOCATIONS. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AGAIN  
EXPECTED ON MONDAY, WITH HEAT INDICES AGAIN CLIMBING INTO THE 105  
TO 107 DEGREE RANGE OVER A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA, WITH A FEW  
LOCATIONS AGAIN FLIRTING WITH 110 DEGREES. STILL NOT QUITE ENOUGH  
COVERAGE OF HEAT INDICES ABOVE 108- 110 TO WARRANT A HEAT  
ADVISORY, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE  
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. STAYS WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT,  
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S INLAND AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S  
CLOSER TO THE COAST AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW LOWER 80S ALONG  
IMMEDIATE BEACHES. 12/DS  
 
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...THIS FORECAST PERIOD,  
AND THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD BELOW, IS MARKED BY THE FORMATION  
AND PASSAGE OF A PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH WHOSE MAIN EFFECTS WILL  
BE TO LOWER STATIC STABILITIES ACROSS OUR REGION AS WELL AS BRING  
AN INCREASE IN DEEP- LAYER MOISTURE. TOMORROW NIGHT, THINGS BEGIN  
TO CHANGE. MIDDLE TO LOWER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL AS  
A 'FORERUNNER' PROGRESSIVE TROUGH [I.E., COMPARED TO NEXT ONE BY  
LATE WEEK (SEE LONG- TERM SECTION BELOW)] THAT HAD PASSED THROUGH  
THE OHIO VALLEY EARLIER MONDAY SETTLES SOUTHWARD. TUESDAY SHOULD  
BE WET FOR MOST OF OUR COUNTIES AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURE  
CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD OVER OUR AREA. THERE SHOULD BE A  
NOTABLE 'FILLING-IN' OF PRECIPITATION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES DAY AS  
DEEP- LAYER WATER VAPOR VALUES PEAK AND WITH AMPLE DEEP AND  
MODERATE FORCING MODULATED BY FAVORABLE 300-850 HPA DIFFERENTIAL  
DIVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. WEDNESDAY'S RAINFALL  
FORECAST COULD BE TRICKY, HOWEVER, SINCE THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE  
VIGOROUS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE VS. THE ECMWF. IF  
THE ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES, THE TROUGH COULD STALL AND MOVE  
SLOWER. EITHER WAY, RAIN WILL FALL MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY (BUT  
COULD BEGIN DRYING SOONER NW OF I-65 AND N OF HIGHWAY 84 - IF THE  
GFS IS MORE ACCURATE). WEDNESDAY NIGHT, RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN  
HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST (WITH PERHAPS SOME DRYING FURTHER INLAND)  
AND THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR THE NEXT MAIN LARGE SCALE FEATURE  
THAT WILL AFFECT OUR REGION NO DOUBT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE  
CURVES WILL BE DAMPENED GIVEN INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN - BUT  
IT WILL BE VERY HUMID. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL TREND MORE TOWARD MID-  
AND UPPER- 70S. /23 JMM  
 
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...IN SHORT, A MORE  
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED DEEP-LAYER FORCING EVEN FOR OUR  
REGION) - AND THEN UPPER LOW - IS FORECAST TO FORM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY  
ON THE FRONT END OF NEXT WEEKEND. AS TIME PROGRESSES, GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS  
ONCE AGAIN LOWER AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE, PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY.  
THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT OVER HOW DEEP THE LOW WILL BE (I.E., THIS  
TIME, THE ECMWF BEING FURTHER SOUTH AND WITH LOWER HEIGHTS). THERE IS  
ALSO DISAGREEMENT IN THE INDIVIDUAL GEFS MEMBERS WITH T HE  
EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW. DESPITE THIS, FEEL FAIRLY  
CONFIDENT OUR REGION WILL BE WETTER THAN NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND AND  
THAT MAXIMUM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES COULD ONCE AGAIN BE TAPERED BY  
GREATER THAN AVERAGE FORECAST CLOUD COVER. THE 7 DAY PERIOD COULD  
BRING 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS OUR REGION (HIGHER NEAR THE  
COAST). ISOLATED SEVEN DAY MAXIMUM RAINFALL TOTALS WILL VARY. /23  
JMM  
 
MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND EAST  
TO WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY  
TUESDAY, THEN SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF BY LATE TUESDAY  
INTO WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SETTLES INTO THE INTERIOR  
SOUTHEASTERN STATES FROM THE NORTH. THIS PATTERN WILL THEN  
CONTINUE LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A LIGHT, GENERALLY  
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH A  
WEAK DIURNAL LATE NIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW NEAR SHORE AT TIMES. BY  
WEDNESDAY, AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN, EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS  
AND STORMS OVER THE MARINE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATE PART  
OF THE WEEK, AS WELL AS A SLIGHTLY HIGHER WEST WIND AND BUILDING  
SEAS. WINDS COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION, ESPECIALLY  
OFFSHORE, MID TO LATE WEEK. 12/DS  
 

 
   
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...NONE.  
FL...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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