174  
FXUS64 KMOB 231228  
AFDMOB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
728 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014  
   
MARINE
 
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO CURRENT FORECAST FOR TODAY INCREASING  
WINDS 3 TO 5 KNOTS MOSTLY OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DUE TO GOOD  
DRAINAGE THIS MORNING AND FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR A  
STRONGER SEASBREEZE THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. 32/EE  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 510 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014/  
 
..DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT OUR REGION THROUGH  
THE WEEKEND...  
 
SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL  
CONTINUE TO BE DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM 107 TO 112  
DEGREES FOR ALL INLAND AREAS STARTING JUST NORTH OF THE IMMEDIATE  
COAST STRETCHING NORTH OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEEP  
RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION TODAY WITH A  
WELL DEFINED THERMAL RIDGE DEPICTED AT 925 MB CENTERED OVER THE CWFA  
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. AS FOR PRECIP WILL CONTINUE WITH A  
20 POP OR ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE  
BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG  
A WEAK SEABREEZE BOUNDARY SHIFTING INLAND OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES  
OF AL AND NWFL. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV/MET  
GUIDANCE THROUGH TONIGHT MAKING MINOR TWEAKS FOR CONSISTENCY WITH  
SURROUNDING WFO'S. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100  
FOR MOST INLAND AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE  
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH INCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE  
COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 70S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND  
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST. 32/EE  
 
THIS AFTERNOON'S WET MICROBURST RISK WILL BE MODERATE.  
 
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD IN PLACE ACROSS THE  
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY REGION AND TOWARD THE CENTRAL  
GULF COAST REGION SUNDAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL  
MEANWHILE STRETCH FROM THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN FL/SOUTHERN GA  
WESTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST MS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL PUSHING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AL AND CENTRAL  
GA. LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING WILL BECOME ENHANCED ACROSS OUR CWFA  
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED HOT TEMPERATURES.  
HIGHS WILL TREND FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S NEAR THE COAST TO AROUND  
100 DEGREES OVER MOST INLAND LOCATIONS. DEWPOINTS MAY MIX OUT TO  
THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND...BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO  
MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL ONCE AGAIN RANGE  
BETWEEN 106 AND 110 DEGREES WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS AS HIGH AS 112  
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL ISSUE A  
HEAT ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT CRENSHAW AND BUTLER COUNTIES...WHERE HEAT  
INDICES LOOK TO GENERALLY AVERAGE BELOW 106.  
 
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL OTHERWISE INCREASE FROM NORTHEAST TO  
SOUTHWEST AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS  
SUNDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOOKING TO RISE TO 1.8 TO 2.1  
INCHES ACROSS THE CWFA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE INCREASED MOISTURE  
ALONG WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH  
AXIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE BETTER  
COVERAGE OVER NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA WITHIN THE REGION OF  
HIGHER PWATS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF  
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THAT  
DEVELOP. MOISTURE GRADUALLY ADVECTS WESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST  
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST AREAS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH OVERNIGHT  
CONVECTION BECOMING FOCUSED MOSTLY NEAR THE COAST OR OFFSHORE. /21  
 
LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH  
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY....WITH SURFACE FLOW  
BECOMING EASTERLY IN ITS WAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY COOL BACK  
DOWN CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AS SURFACE  
RIDGING EXTENDS INTO OUR AREA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. A PLUME OF DEEP  
LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A  
WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE REGION ON THE  
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES  
REMAIN BETWEEN 2 AND 2.25 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION...AND WE WILL KEEP  
POPS RANGING FROM 30-40 PERCENT ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE  
CWFA...TO AROUND 50 PERCENT OVER WESTERN SECTIONS. LOCALLY HEAVY  
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT  
DEVELOP. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN LOOKS TO RE-  
STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH  
THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATING DEEP LAYER DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE  
MOVING BACK INTO OUR FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE CONSIDERABLY TUESDAY...AND WILL  
OPT TO GO FOR A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. LOWER  
DEWPOINTS MAY ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER MORNING LOWS AND LOWER  
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES GOING INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. UPPER  
RIDGING MAY PERSIST INTO THURSDAY BEFORE BREAKING DOWN LATE THURSDAY  
INTO FRIDAY AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF  
THE NEXT TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE  
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE  
LATE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES...  
BUT OUR CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF  
THIS NEXT SYSTEM. /21  
 
AVIATION [23.12Z ISSUANCE]...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24.12Z.  
COULD SEE A VERY BRIEF PD OF LOWER CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND AN  
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MOSTLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR  
EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NORTHWEST TO WEST 3 TO 5 KNOTS  
EARLY TODAY SHIFTING SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 6 TO 8 KNOTS THIS  
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 2 TO  
4 KNOTS LATE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE  
 
MARINE...DEEP RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH  
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING  
SOUTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO THE SE UNITED STATES AND  
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION MON INTO TUES. WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECT A  
LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY SHIFTING  
NORTHEAST THEN EAST AND BUILDING TO 15 TO 18 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS  
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE MON THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THE HIGHER  
WINDS AND WAVES WILL OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.  
SEAS AT 1 TO 2 FEET THROUGH EARLY MON WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FEET BY  
EARLY TUES MORNING THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO AROUND 2 TO 3 FT BY THU  
MORNING. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE WAKE OF THE  
FRONT LATE MON THROUGH EARLY WED. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT MON THROUGH EARLY TUE.  
32/EE  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
MOBILE 97 75 98 76 91 / 20 10 20 30 50  
PENSACOLA 96 79 97 79 92 / 20 10 20 30 40  
DESTIN 91 82 96 79 92 / 20 10 20 30 40  
EVERGREEN 99 75 98 74 93 / 20 05 20 30 30  
WAYNESBORO 99 74 100 75 93 / 20 05 20 30 50  
CAMDEN 99 73 98 74 92 / 10 05 30 30 40  
CRESTVIEW 99 74 99 75 92 / 20 10 20 30 30  
 

 
   
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE  
FOLLOWING ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...  
COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER  
MOBILE...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...  
WASHINGTON...WILCOX...  
 
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING  
ZONES: CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...ESCAMBIA...  
LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...  
UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...WILCOX...  
 
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE  
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...  
COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...  
INLAND SANTA ROSA...  
 
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING  
ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA  
ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA  
ROSA...  
 
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE  
FOLLOWING ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...  
 
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING  
ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...  
 
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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