098  
FXUS64 KMOB 300023 AAA  
AFDMOB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
723 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015  
   
MESOSCALE UPDATE
 
LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SHOW LATEST  
ROUND OF DEEP CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH REGION AT THE MOMENT. IN THE  
PAST HOUR THERE HAS BEEN A TREND TOWARDS DECREASING COVERAGE. EXPECT  
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE FOR A WHILE BUT THEN SOMETIME DURING THE LATE  
EVENING...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RE-  
DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER S/WAVE AND ASSOCIATED  
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC PRESSURE TROUGH. LATEST GLOBAL MODELS...NAM AND  
HRRR SUGGEST AN AREA OF PCPN WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE SWWD INTO OUR  
AREA. DO NOT EXPECT IT TO AMOUNT TO MUCH...BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY...THOSE  
OUTFLOWS WILL ENDURE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND WILL SERVE TO  
ENHANCE COVERAGE EARLY TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY ALONG SOUTH OF I-65. WE  
ARE CURRENTLY ADVERTISING A 60% CHANCE OF RAIN FOR TOMORROW. PUT  
MINOR TWEAKS ON OVERNIGHT WINDS...POPS...QPF...CLOUDS AND WEATHER  
GRIDS. HEAT ADVISORY EXPIRED AT 7 PM CDT. NEW PACKAGE OUT SHORTLY.  
/23 JMM  
 

 
   
AVIATION...30/00Z TAF ISSUANCE
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS  
WEAKENING AND BECOMING LESS WIDESPREAD AS WE BEGIN TO LOSE DAYTIME  
HEATING. BELIEVE SOME EAK CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE WELL  
INTO THE EVENING HOURS THOUGH...AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES  
TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL SFC TROF AXIS  
(BOUNDARY) IS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. CEILINGS AND SFC VISIBILITY  
WILL BE AT VFR CRITERIA FOR NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS TONIGHT...BUT THERE  
WILL LIKELY BE SOME BKN MID/HIGH LEVELS CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME  
PATCHY LIGHT FOG AT SOME LOCATIONS. SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE  
LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD  
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH  
PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILTY. 12/DS  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 334 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/  
 
NEAR TERM...(TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)....THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES  
VERY LITTLE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ESSENTIALLY THE SRN DEEPLY-  
REFLECTED RIDGE REMAINS INTACT AS IMPULSES ROTATE AROUND IT IN THE  
MID- AND UPPER FLOW. MAIN THING IS DETERMINING EVOLUTION OF LEFT-  
OVER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (SOME THAT WILL PRODUCE SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS ON AN ISOLATED BASIS THROUGH MID EVENING).  
LOOKS LIKE THE W-E LINE ENTERING OUR CWFA WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER  
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (AS THE FIRST PUSH MOVES  
SWD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS). A NICE ZONE OF MLCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG  
WILL BE PRESENT AS THE STORMS MOVE FURTHER SWD (AND THIS WILL AVERAGE BEING  
THE HIGHEST ZONE OF INSTABILITY AS WE MOVE INTO THE EARLY EVENING  
HOURS). ALSO WILL BE WATCHING ANOTHER AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION UP OVER  
NRN/CNTRL AL THAT IS POISED TO MOVE S IN THE FLOW. A WELL- DEFINED  
PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL MOMENTUM SUPPORTING THIS FEATURE VIA  
CONSENSUS...BUT THE RECOVERY OF INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION. MAY JUST  
END UP BEING A DECAYING AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT MOVES IN AND  
THROUGH DURING THE 9 PM-2 AM TIME FRAME. ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IN STORE  
WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...TO LOWER 80S ALONG THE BEACHES.  
EXPECT ELEVATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGES ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW  
AS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY CONTINUES MOVING SEWD INTO OUR AREA. HIGHS IN  
THE LOW TO MID 90S. WE SHOULD BE JUST OUT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA  
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SO...THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE  
AT 7 PM THIS EVENING AND WILL NOT BE RE-ISSUED. /23 JMM  
 
SHORT TERM...(TOMORROW EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING)...THE  
PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE OVERALL FROM WHAT WAS DESCRIBED ABOVE. A  
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY DOES SETTLE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND  
THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO SUPPORT SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE  
COOLER GIVEN THE ASSOCIATED ADDITIONAL CLOUDS BROUGHT THE VIA THE  
BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE A NW-SE ORIENTED MOISTURE GRADIENT...AND ON  
AVERAGE...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER SE OF I-65 EACH DAY. HIGHS  
GENERALLY 90 TO 95 DEG(F) WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER  
70S TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE BEACHES. /23 JMM  
 
LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...ALOFT...THE FAMILIAR  
NW FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME CHANGES IN THE  
ATMOSPHERIC LOW LEVELS. BEGINNING MONDAY...THE WWD EXTENSION OF THE  
LOW-LEVEL BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS WWD AND WE BENEFIT FROM THE  
INCREASINGLY MORE SLY RETURN FLOW THAT WILL BRING ABOUT A MODERATING  
TREND OF THE NW-SE MOISTURE GRADIENT. THIS SETUP KEEPS US SUSCEPTIBLE  
TO MID- AND UPPER S/WAVES THAT WILL MOVE SOUTH IN THE LOW BUT WILL KEEP  
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT HIGH. SO...WE ARE LOOKING AT A  
CONTINUED UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED. HIGHS IN THE LOW-  
MID 90S EACH DAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER  
70S...EXCEPT AROUND 80 ALONG THE BEACHES. /23 JMM  
 
MARINE...THE OVERALL PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT WEEK.  
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE REPLACED BY A MORE VARIABLE CONTINUED LIGHT FLOW  
ON SATURDAY AS A PRESSURE TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THERE  
WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR THE WIND FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY IN THE  
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD  
ONCE AGAIN IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE MAIN MARINE HAZARD WILL  
BE STORMS THAT FORM DAILY AND MOVE FROM LAND TO THE WATER DURING THE  
AFTERNOONS. THE ASSOCIATED GUSTY OUTFLOWS WILL BRING SUDDEN  
SQUALLS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO SURFACE LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY  
WATERSPOUTS. LOOKING AT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...PRECIPITATION  
COVERAGE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE THE GREATEST OVER THE NEXT  
TWO DAYS. /23 JMM  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
MOBILE 96 76 93 77 91 / 60 60 60 60 50  
PENSACOLA 96 78 91 78 89 / 60 60 60 60 40  
DESTIN 93 79 89 80 88 / 50 60 60 60 50  
EVERGREEN 96 75 95 75 92 / 60 60 60 40 40  
WAYNESBORO 97 75 97 75 93 / 40 50 60 40 40  
CAMDEN 95 75 96 76 92 / 50 50 60 40 30  
CRESTVIEW 97 76 93 76 91 / 60 60 60 40 30  
 

 
   
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...NONE.  
FL...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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