545  
FXUS64 KMOB 302111  
AFDMOB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
411 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016  
   
NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES  
TO EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL  
GULF AND INTO AL AND THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON,  
WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRETCH ACROSS  
MUCH OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER  
RIDGE, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE  
ADVANCING SEABREEZE AS EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST AND I-10 CORRIDOR  
THIS AFTERNOON, A COUPLE OF WHICH HAVE PRODUCED BRIEF GUSTY WINDS  
(37 MPH NOTED AT KHRT AT ABOUT 216 PM) AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING  
STRIKES. BRIEF BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ALSO FALLEN WHERE  
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED, WITH RADAR ESTIMATING UPWARDS OF 1-2 INCHES  
OF RAIN IN VERY LOCALIZED SPOTS GIVEN THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE  
STORMS. OTHERWISE, PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HOT  
TEMPERATURES PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION, WITH  
READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND, AND MID 80S TO AROUND 90  
CLOSER TO THE COAST AWAY FROM STORMS AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW.  
 
CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME  
HEATING, AND HAVE ISOLATED POPS IN THE EARLY EVENING FOLLOWED BY DRY  
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT IN THE FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE  
TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND AND 70-75 NEAR THE  
IMMEDIATE COAST AND BEACHES.  
 
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN TUESDAY, WITH EMBEDDED  
IMPULSES IN THE MORE ZONAL FLOW COMPONENT EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE  
ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY. ADDITIONAL LIFT PROVIDED BY THESE  
IMPULSES WILL LIKELY AID IN SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS  
MUCH OF THE REGION, ESPECIALLY AGAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE  
SEABREEZE. WE INCREASED POPS TO ABOUT 30 PERCENT OVER MOST LOCATIONS  
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY  
INCREASE TO 1.5-1.75 INCHES AROUND THE REGION TUESDAY, PERHAPS  
LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 1.75-2.0 INCHES IN THE VICINITY OF THE SEABREEZE.  
MLCAPE COULD BE A LITTLE MORE ENHANCED NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE  
SEABREEZE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE NAM-12 INDICATING VALUES  
BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THE POTENTIAL FOR  
ISOLATED STORMS TO PULSE TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS WITH WET MICROBURSTS  
AND ASSOCIATED WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH MAY INCREASE A BIT MORE BY  
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IF THESE PARAMETERS BECOME REALIZED, AND WILL BE  
SOMETHING TO MONITOR. WE STILL EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF HOT  
TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND AND UPPER  
80S TO AROUND 90 NEAR THE BEACHES. /21  
 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...ALOFT
 
WEAK  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND  
SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH MIDDAY THU THEN SHIFT EAST TO NEAR THE GA/SC  
COAST AND WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE THU THROUGH FRI IN RESPONSE TO A  
DEEPENING MID TO UPPER TROF OVER THE CENTRAL AND LOWER PLAINS STATES.  
AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL  
GULF COAST REGION AND SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH  
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...INITIALLY  
DEVELOPING ON AN EARLY AFTERNOON SEABREEZE BOUNDARY FORMING MOSTLY  
OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY INLAND FROM THE  
COAST...FOLLOWED BY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT INTO LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY  
EVENING HOURS FORMING MOSTLY ON RANDOM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM  
THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER IN THE DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO  
INDICATE MARGINAL INSTABILITY OR CAPE VALUES ALONG WITH HIGH LCL  
HEIGHTS THROUGH THE WEEK COMBINED WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE IN  
THE LOWER LEVELS SUGGESTING MOSTLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED  
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH EARLY THU. WITH LIMITED FORCING  
IN THE MID LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE  
SHORT LIVED PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND SHORT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND  
LIGHTNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS  
THROUGH THU. DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY  
ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S INLAND AND  
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE  
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
A DEEP UPPER TROF OF LOW  
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL AND LOWER PLAINS FRI THROUGH  
EARLY NEXT WEEK LIKELY LEADING TO SLIGHTLY BETTER MID LEVEL FORCING  
AND MOISTURE RETURN FURTHER EAST OR DOWNSTREAM INCLUDING THE CENTRAL  
GULF STATES AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...CONTINUING THROUGH  
MON. AS A RESULT EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN EACH DAY WITH SLIGHTLY  
BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH BETTER MOISTURE  
RETURN AND MID LEVEL FORCING AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD BE STRONGER  
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING BETTER ORGANIZED THAN  
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. DAY AND NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER  
OR NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS DUE TO BETTER CLOUDS AND COVERAGE OF PRECIP.  
32/EE  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK  
BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD AND WEAKENING LATE THIS WEEK AND  
INTO THE WEEKEND. A DAILY PATTERN OF LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW AT NIGHT  
AND LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE DAY WILL GENERALLY  
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE A BIT MORE ENHANCED  
OVER NEAR SHORE BAYS/SOUNDS WITH THE DAILY SEABREEZE. SEAS WILL  
REMAIN LOW. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN TO  
MOST OF THE MARINE AREA THIS WEEKEND. /21  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
MOBILE 69 91 70 89 / 20 30 10 20  
PENSACOLA 73 90 73 87 / 10 20 10 10  
DESTIN 76 89 74 85 / 10 20 10 10  
EVERGREEN 67 93 67 93 / 10 30 10 20  
WAYNESBORO 67 94 66 92 / 10 30 10 20  
CAMDEN 67 93 67 93 / 10 20 20 20  
CRESTVIEW 67 94 68 92 / 20 30 10 20  
 

 
   
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...NONE.  
FL...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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