261  
FXUS64 KMOB 282158  
AFDMOB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
358 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014  
   
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
 
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH  
SATURDAY...A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A SURFACE  
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MEANWHILE EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE  
VALLEY REGION TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. VISIBLE SATELLITE  
IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THIS  
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REPORTING  
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AS OF 2 PM CST.  
 
THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT...  
WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND BECOMES ORIENTED  
FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. ANOTHER  
NIGHT OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS  
EXPECTED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM  
THE LOWER TO MID 30S INLAND TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S NEAR THE  
IMMEDIATE COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD FROM THE  
GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION  
SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR  
AREA. INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN  
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND  
WE COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON LOWER LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOP...  
ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. TEMPERATURES  
SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES FOR HIGHS  
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. /21  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A SHORTWAVE  
MOVING FROM OVER TX TO OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEX. ALSO BEING  
ADVERTISED IS A LOBE OF ENERGY SWING SOUTHEAST OVER THE  
PLAINS...AROUND AN UPPER LOW SITUATED BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES AND  
HUDSON BAY. IT'S THIS VORT LOBE THAT PUSHES A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE  
PLAINS TO NEAR THE MISS DELTA REGION BY MONDAY MORN. THIS APPROACHING  
FRONT AND THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEX WORK AGAINST  
EACH OTHER...KEEPING THE ONSHORE FLOW ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THE RESULT  
FOR THE FORECAST IS TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND.  
   
LONG TERM...(MONDAY ON)...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
 
THE VORT LOBE MOVING  
ACROSS THE PLAINS DETACHES FROM THE CLOSED LOW AND HEADS  
EAST...PUSHING THE FRONT MOSTLY ACROSS THE FA BY TUESDAY  
MORN....WHERE IT STALLS. WITHT HE WEAK NATURE OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH  
WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS SOUTH OF THE FRONT...THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS  
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN CLOSE  
TO AND NORTH OF THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT WITH THE  
WEAKENING DYNAMICS MOVING OFF...NO APPRECIABLE COOLER AIR MOVES OVER  
THE FA WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH THE LITTLE PRECIP EXPECTED SOUTH OF  
THE FRONT. AM EXPECTING MOSTLY CLOUD SKIES WITH THE FRONT FRONT WITH  
DECENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS CONTINUE.  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A PRETTY QUITE PERIOD ENSUES...WITH SOME  
UPPER ENERGY MOVING FROM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY. THE GFS IS  
ADVERTISING ANOTHER FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE FA...WHILST THE LESS  
ORGANIZED ECMWF IS ADVERTISING ANY RAIN STAYING WELL NORTH OF THE FA.  
AN UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BUILT UP OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEX  
FLATTENS WITH THE WESTERN CONUS ENERGY MOVING EAST AND TEMPS COOL A  
BIT...BUT REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
28.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE  
WITH CLEAR SKIES. CALM TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH  
TONIGHT. /21  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE WESTERN  
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND. A  
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE  
MARINE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE  
EASTERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DEVELOPS FROM  
THE EAST COAST TO THE GULF COAST REGION. /21  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
MOBILE 41 69 56 72 57 / 00 00 05 10 10  
PENSACOLA 42 67 58 72 59 / 00 00 05 10 10  
DESTIN 45 64 60 70 58 / 00 00 05 10 05  
EVERGREEN 32 68 48 71 55 / 00 00 05 10 10  
WAYNESBORO 34 68 52 71 57 / 00 00 05 10 10  
CAMDEN 32 68 51 71 55 / 00 00 05 05 10  
CRESTVIEW 32 68 48 72 52 / 00 00 05 10 05  
 

 
   
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...NONE.  
FL...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
21/16  
 
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