043  
FXUS64 KMOB 312049  
AFDMOB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
349 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014  
   
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
 
WEATHER MAPS SHOW  
STRONG CANADIAN FRONT...THE LEADING EDGE OF A MUCH COLDER  
AIRMASS...ADVANCING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. THERE IS A FEW  
SPOTTY SHOWERS IN FRONTAL CLOUDS NOTED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. WILL  
CARRY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST FOR THE REMAINDER  
OF THE AFTERNOON. ANY MEASURABLE RAINS LOOK VERY LIGHT. HIGH  
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATE POTENTIAL OF SPOTTY RAINS THIS  
EVENING...GENERALLY OVER THE SAME AREAS. CONSIDERING THIS AND GIVEN  
SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS...WILL ADD 10% OR LESS POPS IN FOR THE  
EVENING. AT THIS TIME...MEASURABLE RAIN LOOKS LIMITED AT BEST GIVEN  
LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE.  
 
THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH/INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT MAGNITUDE IN THE  
WAKE OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT AND EXPECTED NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY  
FLOW...SUGGESTS THAT CRITERIA FOR A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE MET OVER  
THE GULF COAST TONIGHT. LATEST GRIDDED WIND SPEEDS CALL FOR NORTHWEST  
TO NORTH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 MPH WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS  
BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES TONIGHT. THE  
STRONGER OF THESE WINDS LOOK TO BE FOCUSED ALONG THE LAND AND SEA  
INTERFACE AT THE BEACHES. COLD AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES WILL ALSO BE  
UNDERWAY TONIGHT AS A DEEP NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WITHIN A LARGE  
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN SPREADS OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL  
PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF INTO THE MID 30S OVER THE INTERIOR  
TO LOWER HALF OF THE 40S OVER THE COAST. THESE NUMBERS WILL BE SOME  
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.  
 
FOR SATURDAY...AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGS ACROSS THE  
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING...MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY  
EVENING. THE ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT THE MID LEVEL HEIGHT FIELDS  
WITHIN THIS TROF ARE ~ 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW THE MEAN FOR  
NOVEMBER 1ST. FORECAST 24 HOUR 1000-850 MILLIBAR THICKNESS CHANGE  
ENDING SATURDAY AFTERNOON IS AROUND 40 METERS LOWER THAN TODAY. THIS  
RESULTS IN A MUCH COLDER DAY FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS LOOKING TO NOT  
GET OUT OF THE 50S OVER THE INTERIOR. CLOSER TO THE COAST...MAY GET  
TO 60...BUT COULD BE DIFFICULT TO REACH THERE...GIVEN THE DEEP TROF  
TO THE EAST AND COLD AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES PUSHING ACROSS THE DEEP  
SOUTH. BREEZY DAY CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE  
WEST. /10  
 
A LARGE DOME OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OH/TN  
VALLEYS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTH INTO OUR REGION.  
SINCE THE HIGH IS NOT DIRECTLY CENTERED OVER THE AREA...A LIGHT WIND  
IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. EVEN WITH THE LIGHT  
WIND...GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON THE FIRST LIGHT FREEZE OF  
THE YEAR FOR ALMOST ALL INLAND LOCATIONS. THEREFORE...HAVE EXPANDED  
THE FREEZE WATCH FURTHER SOUTH...BUT IT DOES NOT INCLUDE COASTAL  
ZONES. IN FACT...THE LOCAL HI RES WRF AND NCEP HI RES WRF BOTH SHOW  
EVEN COLDER LOW TEMPS THAN WHAT MOS IS SHOWING EVEN WITH A PERSISTENT  
LIGHT WIND. THIS BOLSTERS CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FREEZE...WITH  
SOME FAR INLAND LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S. SUNDAY  
MORNING RECORD LOWS AT MOBILE AND PENSACOLA (30 AND 31 RESPECTIVELY  
SET IN 1966) APPEAR SAFE FOR NOW. 34/JFB  
   
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
 
THE DEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL  
TROUGH WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC ON  
SUNDAY WHILE RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH  
WILL STILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS WILL MAINTAIN  
ANOTHER 24 HOURS OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL ONLY  
CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO  
UPPER 30S EXCEPT FOR LOWER 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. PATCHY  
FROST IS POSSIBLE OVER WELL INLAND LOCATIONS.  
 
A CONTINUED MODERATION TOWARD SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED EARLY  
NEXT WEEK AS THE SFC HIGH WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN  
ATLANTIC WHILE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS OUR AREA.  
 
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK AS GUIDANCE DISAGREES  
ON HOW TO HANDLE THE INCOMING TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN STATES. THE  
ECMWF CONTINUES TO SPLIT OFF A PIECE OF ENERGY AND CUT IT OFF OVER  
FAR NW MEXICO WED-THU. THE ECMWF FINALLY EJECTS THE ENERGY EAST AS IT  
PHASES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY . THE GFS IS MUCH  
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY...SHOWING THE BEST  
RAIN CHANCES THU-EARLY FRI COMPARED TO THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS MAINLY  
DRY WEATHER IN PLACE THROUGH FRI. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE  
EXTENDED AT THIS TIME...CAPPING RAIN CHANCES AT 20% WED-FRI AND  
WARMING TEMPERATURES TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. A LOOK AT THE  
GFS ENSEMBLES AND THE NAEFS DO NOT BOLSTER CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE  
SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR A BETTER SIGNAL FROM  
THE ENSEMBLES BEFORE WE CAN SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR  
ANY ONE OR TWO DAYS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. 34/JFB  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
31.18Z TAF ISSUANCE...A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING POTENTIAL OF  
CLOUDS WITH BASES 3 TO 5 KFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO RAIN  
ANTICIPATED. SKIES CLEARING LATE TONIGHT. VSBY OK. FOLLOWING THE  
FRONTAL PASSAGE...INCREASING NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY WINDS FOLLOW  
BEGINNING BY AND AFTER 21Z. WINDS INCREASE 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH  
FREQUENT GUSTS POSSIBLY BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KNOTS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY  
CLOSER TO THE BEACH AREAS. THE INCREASE IN WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN  
HAZARD TO APPROACHES AND DEPARTURES. /10  
 

 
   
MARINE...GIVEN THE STRENGTH ON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
 
COLDER AIR  
ADVECTION ATOP WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND RESULTANT WIND  
FIELD...UNUSUALLY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL  
SUPPORT TRANSFER OF HIGHER MOMENTUM WINDS FROM ALOFT TO THE WATER  
SURFACE TONIGHT. CONSIDERING THIS...THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT  
RANGE WEATHER MODELS ARE ALSO IN SUPPORT OF THIS SCENARIO...INDICATING  
THAT GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY OVER ALL MARINE WATERS TONIGHT  
THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE  
AREA...A LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS FORECAST FOR THE  
FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. SEAS SHOW A SUBSIDING TREND LATE  
SUNDAY THEN REBUILD NEXT WEEK DUE TO A MODERATE...PERSISTENT EASTERLY  
FETCH. /10  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
A STRONG REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AND DRY AIR WILL  
MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IN  
ADDITION...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE MID 20  
TO LOWER 30 PERCENT RANGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN  
CONDITIONS NEAR RED FLAG CRITERIA ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.  
AFTER COORDINATION WITH THE STATE OF MISSISSIPPI...A FIRE WEATHER  
WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. ALABAMA AND FLORIDA LOCATIONS  
WILL STAY JUST SHORT OF CRITERIA. VERY DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO  
SUNDAY...BUT WINDS WILL BE MUCH LOWER AND CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED  
TO MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA. 34/JFB  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
MOBILE 37 58 34 63 39 / 05 00 00 00 00  
PENSACOLA 42 60 37 64 45 / 05 00 00 00 00  
DESTIN 44 61 40 63 47 / 05 00 00 00 00  
EVERGREEN 36 57 30 61 34 / 10 00 00 00 00  
WAYNESBORO 35 58 29 62 36 / 10 00 00 00 00  
CAMDEN 35 57 30 60 34 / 10 00 00 00 00  
CRESTVIEW 38 60 31 64 35 / 05 00 00 00 00  
 

 
   
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM SATURDAY FOR THE  
FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...UPPER  
BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...  
 
FREEZE WATCH FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING  
ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...  
CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER  
MOBILE...WASHINGTON...WILCOX...  
 
FL...FREEZE WATCH FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING  
ZONES: INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA  
ROSA...  
 
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM SATURDAY FOR THE  
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...  
COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...  
INLAND SANTA ROSA...  
 
MS...FREEZE WATCH FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING  
ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...  
 
GM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR THE  
FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM  
DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM  
PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI  
SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...  
PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO  
PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO  
PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:  
CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO  
PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL  
TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN  
MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN  
MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO  
60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20  
TO 60 NM...  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE  
FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM  
DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM  
PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI  
SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...  
PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO  
PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO  
PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...  
 

 
 

 
 
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