446  
FXUS64 KMOB 250456 AAB  
AFDMOB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
1156 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016  
   
DISCUSSION
 
UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH  
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE LOWER CEILINGS AND  
VISIBILITIES IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON THURSDAY BETWEEN 24.18Z AND 20Z. LIGHT  
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS  
ON THURSDAY. /22  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 945 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/  
 
DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION FOR LAND AREAS BELOW.  
 
UPDATE...AREA RADARS DETECTING THAT THE EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WHILE  
AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM WIGGINS MS TO CRESTVIEW FL WILL REMAIN  
RAIN-FREE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AREAS SOUTH OF THIS LINE COULD  
SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS POSSIBLE  
RE-DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WORK ITS WAY  
SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE COAST. REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE  
TRENDING AS FORECAST. /22  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/  
 
NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO WEATHER  
PATTERN IN THE NEAR TERM FCST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BOTH SFC AND  
ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE FCST AREA. AS EXPECTED...ISOLATED TO  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS  
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHERN (ESPECIALLY COASTAL) PORTIONS  
OF THE FCST AREA. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE  
REGION THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH ONLY A LINGERING ISOLATED  
SHOWER OR STORM REMAINING POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. PRETTY MUCH THE SAME  
STORY FOR TOMORROW (THURSDAY) WITH DIURNAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION  
DEVELOPING... ESPECIALLY OVER COASTAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS (CLOSER TO  
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE) OF THE FCST AREA AS AFTERNOON CAPE  
EXPECTED TO AGAIN BE IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. SOME STORMS COULD  
BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS, BUT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE  
LIMITS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S OVER  
INTERIOR AREAS TO THE UPPER 70S DOWN NEAR THE COAST. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S OVER  
INTERIOR LOCATIONS...UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AT THE COAST. 12/DS  
 
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...AN UPPER RIDGE  
ORIENTED EAST-WEST OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEASTERN STATES SHIFTS  
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL EASTERN STATES THROUGH THE  
PERIOD. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES MEANWHILE WEAKENS  
GRADUALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT MAINTAINS A MAINLY EASTERLY FLOW  
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A DEEP LAYER EASTERLY FLOW ALSO PREVAILS  
WHICH USHERS IN PROGRESSIVELY DRIER DEEP LAYER AIR INTO THE AREA,  
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING FROM 1.5-2.0 INCHES THURSDAY  
EVENING TO 1.2-1.5 INCHES BY FRIDAY MORNING. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE  
INCREASES TEMPORARILY FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN EASTERLY EDDY MOVES ACROSS  
THE REGION, THEN DECREASES AGAIN TO 1.0-1.5 INCHES FOR SATURDAY AND  
MUCH OF SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 
OTHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NEAR THE COAST WHERE THE BETTER DEEP  
LAYER MOISTURE WILL TEND TO BE LOCATED ALONG WITH SOME LOW LEVEL  
CONVERGENCE WITH AN OCCASIONAL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THAT DEVELOPS,  
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL  
RANGE FROM THE MID 90S INLAND TO THE LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST.  
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S/LOWERS 70S INLAND,  
WITH THE LOWER VALUES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA, TO THE MID/UPPER  
70S NEAR THE COAST. /29  
 
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...AN UNCERTAIN PERIOD FOLLOWS  
FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD, WITH THE FORECAST HINGING ON POTENTIAL  
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT (INVEST 99L) WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT AFFECT THE  
NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION. ALL INTERESTS IN THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE  
TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SITUATION AND NOT FOCUS ON SPECIFIC MODEL  
SOLUTIONS AS THESE WILL CONTINUE TO VARY GREATLY UNTIL/IF A SYSTEM  
FORMS. PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WEBSITE AT  
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV AND OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB FOR  
THE LATEST OFFICIAL INFORMATION REGARDING THIS SYSTEM.  
 
WITH SUCH A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED, HAVE GONE WITH  
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY INCREASING TO CHANCE/GOOD  
CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE  
LOWER 90S ON SUNDAY THEN EXPECTED TO TREND TO MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S  
BY LATER IN THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL TYPICALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 70S  
INLAND TO THE UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST. /29  
 
MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF  
MEXICO THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY SUNDAY  
INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE (INVEST 99L)  
POSSIBLY MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF FROM THE EAST TOWARD THE END OF  
THE FCST PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO  
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND GRADUALLY INCREASE IN STRENGTH OVER  
THE WEEKEND. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS AND POSSIBLE  
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA (INVEST 99L) FOR SEVERAL MORE  
DAYS BEFORE WE HAVE A FIRM IDEA OF WHERE IT MAY GO AND TO WHAT  
EXTENT IT DEVELOPS. AT THIS TIME ANY POSSIBLE EFFECTS FROM THIS  
SYSTEM...IF THEY OCCUR...ARE STILL BEYOND THE FCST PERIOD. IN THE  
MEANTIME...LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH  
SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET (OR LESS). WINDS AND SEAS WILL OF COURSE  
BE HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. 12/DS  
 

 
   
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...NONE.  
FL...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:  
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB  
 
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