865  
FXUS64 KMOB 012056  
AFDMOB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
356 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015  
   
SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]
 
MUCH CALMER CONDITIONS EARLY  
THIS AFTERNOON AS MUCH OF THE AREA IS STILL SOMEWHAT RELATIVELY  
STABLE IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S THUNDERSTORM/OUTFLOW EVENT.  
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE HEATED UP TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER  
90S...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WE ARE JUST  
NOW GETTING UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION TO BEGIN TO  
DEVELOP OVER THE FCST AREA. TO THE WEST OF THE FCST AREA...IN A  
REGION THAT DIDN'T GET AS WORKED OVER YESTERDAY (AND ALSO INFLUENCED  
BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TODAY)...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS  
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO OF NOTE TODAY IS ANOTHER  
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. OUTFLOW  
FROM THE CLUSTER OF STORMS TO THE NORTH MAY APPROACH NORTHERN ZONES  
THIS EVENING...AND WITH THE SUPPORT OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL  
SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY INITIATE A FEW STORMS UP THAT WAY...BUT NOT AT  
THE INTENSITY OF YESTERDAYS EVENT. THE STORMS TO THE WEST WILL  
PROBABLY MOVE/BUILD A LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON  
AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS WELL AS THE OTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE  
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MOVES ON EAST ACROSS AND PAST THE FCST AREA. BY  
MID TO LATE EVENING HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF OF SOLAR HEATING WE  
EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT  
CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE TODAY. TAIL END OF THE UPPER  
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH MENTIONED EARLIER WILL BE  
MOVING EAST OUT OF THE FCST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND BE  
JUST EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNSET. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN  
TOMORROW...WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE EAST NEARER THE UPPER  
SUPPORT. SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS VERY LOW FOR BOTH TONIGHT AND  
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S OVER INTERIOR  
AREAS AND MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES  
ON THURSDAY EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...LOWER 90S  
INLAND WITH SOME UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST. 12/DS  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH LEVEL TROF TO CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN US. AT  
THE BASE OF THE TROF...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH WITH  
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 1.8 INCHES. IN THE HIGHER  
LEVEL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE BASE OF THE HIGH LEVEL  
TROF...BEST CORRIDOR FOR THE PASSAGE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE  
COMPLEXES LOOKS TO BE POSITIONED FROM THE MID-SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN  
APPALACHIANS...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. WILL STILL  
MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS => ISOLATED COVERAGES. IN THE  
LOWER LEVELS AND SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC  
NOSES WESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN A LIGHT  
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN NIGHTTIME LOWS...LOWER 70S  
INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 70S BEACHES. /10  
   
LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]
 
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES  
THAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN US MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER  
THE WEEKEND. AT THE BASE OF THE TROF...EMBEDDED MID LEVEL IMPULSES  
PIVOTING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA KEEPS  
THE SOUTHERN US POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF THUNDERSTORM  
COMPLEXES. THE STORMS LOOK TO INITIATE ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...TO BE CARRIED EAST  
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE MEAN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITABLE  
WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH AND WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME  
INSTABILITY...A CHANCE OF STORMS IS FORECAST FOR THE FOURTH AND  
CONTINUING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  
 
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A MID LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE DEEP  
SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH MAY ACT TO LIMIT CHANCES OF  
DAYTIME STORMS WHILE BRINGING A BIT MORE HEAT TO THE LOCAL AREA.  
 
DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL (87 TO 91) OVER THE  
WEEKEND. HIGHS TRENDING WARMER NEXT WEEK...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING  
NUMBERS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S BY WEDNESDAY. NIGHTTIME LOWS...LOWER 70S  
INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 70S BEACHES. /10  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
01/18Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD...BUT  
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MAINLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. MORE  
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...MAINLY FROM MID  
MORNING ON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 10  
KNOT RANGES...SLIGHTLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON  
AND EVENING (AND ALSO STRONGER AND GUSTY IN AND NEAR ANY STORMS).  
12/DS  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN  
GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND  
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROMOTE A LIGHT TO MODERATE  
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE  
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER AND  
THUNDERSTORM STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OVER INTERIOR  
SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND GENERALLY AWAY FROM THE MARINE AREA.  
HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER  
THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. 12/DS  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
DEEP MIXED LAYERS RESULT IN ELEVATED DISPERSION. THE  
LATEST GRIDDED FORECAST CALLS FOR VERY HIGH DISPERSION OVER THE  
INTERIOR OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...INTERIOR OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA  
PANHANDLE...AND MUCH OF INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA BY FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON. DISPERSION INDEX RATINGS REACH BETWEEN 100 AND 110 FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON...WHICH SUGGESTS HAZARDOUS FIRE CONTROL CONDITIONS. /10  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
MOBILE 73 90 74 92 74 / 20 20 05 10 10  
PENSACOLA 76 88 77 93 76 / 20 20 05 10 10  
DESTIN 78 87 79 91 79 / 20 30 10 10 10  
EVERGREEN 72 90 72 92 71 / 30 30 20 20 20  
WAYNESBORO 72 91 71 92 70 / 30 30 10 20 30  
CAMDEN 72 90 71 92 71 / 40 30 20 20 30  
CRESTVIEW 72 90 72 94 71 / 20 30 10 10 20  
 

 
   
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR BALDWIN  
COASTAL-MOBILE COASTAL.  
 
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ESCAMBIA  
COASTAL-OKALOOSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA COASTAL.  
 
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab AL Page
The Nexlab FL Page
The Nexlab MS Page Main Text Page