254  
FXUS64 KMOB 240950  
AFDMOB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
450 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015  
   
..THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TREND HIGHER MOVING INTO MEMORIAL DAY
 
   
..HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ALONG THE BEACHES
 
 
   
SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]
 
THE LONG WAVENUMBER 5 PATTERN  
INDICATES A 500 MB TROUGH ORIENTED ALONG 70W AND AN ANTICYCLONE OVER  
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND ANTILLES. THE GFS360 FULL SPECTRUM OF THE  
500 MB PROG INDICATES THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN IN A QUASI-STEADY  
STATE ALONG 60W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SINCE THE 500 MB ANTICYCLONE  
IS ALIGNED OVER ONSLOW BAY...THE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT GRADIENT AT 500  
MB WILL OPEN UP A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH 00Z MONDAY.  
SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND INTO THE NORTH  
CENTRAL GULF TO EFFECT A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST ALONG THE BEACHES.  
 
DEWPOINTS WILL BE RISING INTO THE LOW 70S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER  
WILL RISE TO NEAR 2 INCHES. SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL GET INTO THE MID  
2000'S INLAND AND MIXED LAYER CAPES WILL BE ABOUT HALF THAT. LIFTED  
INDEX -3 TO -4 SO ALL INDICATE CONVECTION WILL INCREASE THROUGH  
TODAY. WETBULB ZEROS WILL BE AROUND 13000 FEET INDICATING HAIL WILL  
NOT BE AN ISSUE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE MOIST ADIABATIC FOR  
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT DEPRESSION IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES CELSIUS  
BEING COUNTER-INDICATIVE OF HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIND AT  
925 MB IS INDICATED SOUTHEAST AROUND 25 KNOTS SO LIMITED ORGANIZATION  
OF CONVECTIVE CELLS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  
 
HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID 80S INLAND TO THE WEST AS CLOUD COVER  
INCREASES...AND UPPER 80S INLAND TO THE EAST. AND LOW TO MID 80S  
FURTHER TOWARD THE COAST. LOWS INLAND AROUND 70 GIVE OR TAKE A  
DEGREE...AND MID 70S FURTHER TOWARD THE COAST.  
 
THIS AFTERNOON'S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE. /77  
 
MEMORIAL DAY...AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS FORECAST IN THE UPPER LEVEL  
HEIGHT FIELD WITH TROUGH PIVOTING EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS AND  
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE TAKING UP POSITION INTO THE MID  
ATLANTIC...BAHAMAS...AND EASTERN GULF. A LEAD...POTENTIALLY STRONG  
MID LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BETWEEN THESE TWO  
PRESSURE SYSTEMS...SWINGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST DURING THE  
DAY. WITH DEEP GULF MOISTURE BEING PLENTIFUL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US  
(PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.6 AND 1.8 INCHES ON AVERAGE)...LARGER  
SCALE ASCENT FROM THE PASSAGE OF THE IMPULSE ALOFT IN CONJUNCTION  
WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY FAVORS SHOWERS/STORMS BECOMING LIKELY. NOT  
SO GOOD NEWS FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND BEACH TRIPS. FORECASTERS  
ANTICIPATE A STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESSION WITH THE DEEPER LAYER  
FORCING...SO IT APPEARS FOR NOW...THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH  
FLOODING IS LOW. EVEN SO...SOME OF THE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS WILL  
LIKELY BE EFFICIENT IN DROPPING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...WHICH  
COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING IN  
POOR DRAINAGE AND LOWER LYING AREAS. OTHER IMPACTS FROM STORMS WILL  
BE BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH  
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS LOW...THE EQUATION CANNOT RULE THEM OUT  
ENTIRELY GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING  
ACROSS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. MAIN THREAT IN ANY SEVERE STORMS  
APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  
 
SURFACE HIGH EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN  
US...MAINTAINS A SOUTHEAST FLOW WHICH MAY BE BREEZY AT TIMES  
ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST DURING THE DAY. WITH THE MODERATE TO  
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW...COINCIDING WITH AN INCREASE IN SWELL/BREAKER  
ACTION...A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS TO POTENTIALLY DEADLY RIP CURRENTS  
EXISTS ALONG OUR SHORES. /10  
 
DAYTIME HIGHS FOR MEMORIAL DAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE  
LOWER/MID 80S WEST OF I-65 AND MID/UPPER 80S EAST OF THE INTERSTATE.  
OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70 OVER THE INTERIOR TO LOWER/MID 70S SOUTHERN  
ZONES. /10  
   
LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]
 
BULK OF ENERGY AT THE BASE  
OF UPPER TROF OVER THE PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY SHEARS OUT TO THE  
NORTHEAST...MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES  
WEDNESDAY. FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE HIGH LEVEL  
SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES  
PASS EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WITH DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING  
MOSTLY UNCHANGED...CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS REMAIN ELEVATED TUESDAY  
AND WEDNESDAY. THE STRONGER STORMS CAN BE EFFICIENT IN PRODUCING  
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING  
ACTIVITY.  
 
AT THE CLOSE OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...LOOK TO BE GETTING BACK INTO A  
MORE SEASONAL DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MODE. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS  
FORMING ON COASTAL SEABREEZE BOUNDARY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS THURSDAY  
THROUGH SATURDAY.  
 
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...TREND HIGHER...INTO  
THE UPPER 80S/POSSIBLY LOWER 90S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY OVER THE  
INTERIOR. BEACH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO HOLD INTO THE MID 80S...WITH  
FLOW OFF THE GULF. OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70 INTERIOR TO MID 70S BEACH  
AREAS. /10  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
24.12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24  
HOURS. WIND AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE DAYTIME FROM THE SOUTHEAST  
VEERING TO EAST LATER TODAY AND DIMINISHING SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS  
OVERNIGHT. WIND BECOMING CLOSER TO 15 KNOTS ALONG THE SHORELINE  
TODAY. /77  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN  
ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING TO  
20 TO 25 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH WE EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO BE SHORT  
LIVED...NONETHELESS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW POSTED THROUGH  
THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 8 FEET AND  
OCCASIONALLY HIGHER. AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST THIS MEMORIAL  
DAY WEEKEND...THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF  
AND SEAS WILL FOLLOW SUIT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME  
SCATTERED TODAY. BAYS AND AREA WATERWAYS WILL BE CHOPPY. THE SWAN  
CALCULATIONS OF SEA HEIGHTS WERE IN NEED OF AN UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO  
AGREE WITH THE WNA AND GWW WAVE MODELS...AS WELL AS WITH THE  
BRETSCHNEIDER APPROACH. /77  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
MOBILE 84 73 84 72 85 / 30 50 70 40 70  
PENSACOLA 84 76 85 75 84 / 30 30 50 40 70  
DESTIN 83 77 85 76 84 / 30 20 50 30 70  
EVERGREEN 87 70 87 70 86 / 30 30 60 40 70  
WAYNESBORO 85 69 82 69 84 / 30 50 70 40 70  
CAMDEN 87 69 86 69 85 / 30 30 60 40 60  
CRESTVIEW 88 71 88 70 86 / 30 20 50 40 70  
 

 
   
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON FOR LOWER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE.  
 
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL  
SANTA ROSA.  
 
MS...NONE.  
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS  
EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT  
20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT  
20 NM-WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-  
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.  
 

 
 

 
 
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