435  
FXUS64 KMOB 300844  
AFDMOB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
344 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014  
   
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)
 
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REMAINS  
UNDER A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE TO  
THE WEST AND UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE  
CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO  
ADVECT DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA AND MAINTAIN AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND  
DRY AIRMASS. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY WITH  
HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 80S IN MOST SPOTS WITH LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS.  
RECORD LOW TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE YET AGAIN TONIGHT WITH UPPER 50S  
INLAND TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST. /13  
 
RECORDS FOR JULY 31ST  
 
MOBILE: 66/1984  
PENSACOLA: 67/1936  
 
THIS AFTERNOON'S WET MICROBURST RISK: NONE  
 
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE LONGWAVE TROF  
OVER THE EASTERN STATES SHIFTS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY  
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS IN THIS POSITION THROUGH FRIDAY  
NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...TWO FEATURES ALLOW FOR INCREASING DEEP  
LAYER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...FIRST A SURFACE-850 MB LOW OVER  
EASTERN TEXAS WHICH ADVANCES RATHER SLOWLY EASTWARD TO NEAR THE  
SABINE RIVER VALLEY AND A SECOND LESS WELL DEFINED SURFACE-850 MB  
LOW OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEAST GULF/FLORIDA PENINSULA WHICH LOSES  
IDENTITY WHILE RETROGRADING SLOWLY WESTWARD. ADDED TO THIS PATTERN  
IS A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL GULF  
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WHICH THEN LIFTS NORTHWARD AS THE  
NORTHEASTERN GULF LOW WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES...MOVING TO NEAR THE COAST  
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BEGIN THURSDAY MORNING  
A RATHER LOW 1-1.25 INCHES BUT INCREASE QUICKLY TO 1.6-1.9 INCHES BY  
THURSDAY NIGHT THEN TO AROUND 2 INCHES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE  
DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA THURSDAY EXCEPT FOR SMALL POPS  
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA WHERE DEEP  
LAYER MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE FIRST AND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES  
MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER TROF. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR  
THURSDAY NIGHT THEN CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY  
DUE TO ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SUPPORT FROM A CONTINUING  
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE  
NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE ABOUT A FEW  
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THEN TREND TO SEASONABLE VALUES BY FRIDAY NIGHT.  
/29  
   
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
 
THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE  
EASTERN STATES WEAKENS WHILE ADVANCING SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE  
PERIOD TO A WEAK UPPER TROF OVER THE REGION BY TUESDAY. THE  
SURFACE-850 MB LOW NEAR THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY MAKES LITTLE  
PROGRESS EASTWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND THEN DISSIPATE  
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE PATTERN OVER THE REGION FOR THE  
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE A ROUGHLY CONVERGENT FLOW BETWEEN  
A SURFACE HIGH ADVANCING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN STATES AND  
A LARGE SURFACE HIGH DOMINATING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. ABUNDANT DEEP  
LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY THEN TRENDS  
LOWER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES AS THE  
WEAKENING UPPER TROF ADVANCES SLOWLY EASTWARD. HAVE STAYED WITH  
CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS THROUGH MONDAY THEN CHANCE TO SLIGHT  
CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY WITH THE DECREASING DEEP LAYER  
MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE  
VALUES. /29  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE  
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL  
MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEK  
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. /13  
 

 
   
AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE  
NEXT 24 HOURS. /13  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND OR JUST  
BELOW 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THESE RELATIVE HUMIDITY  
VALUES WILL DROP BRIEFLY TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS OVER  
SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS  
WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA AND A RED FLAG WARNING WILL NOT BE  
ISSUED. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN  
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. /29  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
MOBILE 88 64 91 68 91 / 00 05 10 10 30  
PENSACOLA 88 68 91 72 91 / 00 05 05 10 20  
DESTIN 87 70 90 73 90 / 00 05 05 10 20  
EVERGREEN 88 59 91 66 91 / 00 05 10 10 30  
WAYNESBORO 87 62 90 64 89 / 00 05 20 20 30  
CAMDEN 87 60 90 66 88 / 00 05 10 20 40  
CRESTVIEW 91 59 92 65 92 / 00 05 05 10 30  
 

 
   
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...NONE.  
FL...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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