379  
FXUS64 KMOB 011500 AAA  
AFDMOB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
900 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015  
   
MARINE UPDATE
 
LOCAL NEAR SHORE OBSERVATIONS AND A LOOK AT LOCAL  
WEATHER CAMS ALONG THE BEACH INDICATE DENSE MARINE FOG HAS DEVELOPED  
ALONG AREA BAYS AND SOUNDS EARLY THIS MORNING. WE HAVE ISSUED A DENSE  
MARINE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE LOCAL BAYS AND SOUNDS UNTIL NOON CST. /21  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 457 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/  
 
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY EXPECT MOSTLY  
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME PATCHY FOG LINGERING AN HOUR OR 2 AFTER  
SUNRISE. ALOFT UPPER MID TO UPPER FLOW REMAINS MOSTLY ZONAL TONIGHT  
WITH A WEAKENING MID LEVEL IMPULSE TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE DEEP  
SOUTH MOVING FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES THROUGH  
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM DAMPENS SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH TONIGHT RESULTING  
IN LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR  
NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWFA TODAY  
AND TONIGHT KEEPING THE COVERAGE MOSTLY AS LIGHT RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT  
DUE TO THE LACK DEEP MOISTURE...WEAK FORCING ALOFT AND LIMITED  
INSTABILITY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF  
THE MAV AND COOLER MET GUIDANCE THOUGH LEANING TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV  
FOR MOST INLAND AREA DUE MOSTLY FROM PERSISTENCE. TODAYS HIGHS WILL  
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF THE  
I-65 CORRIDOR AND ALONG THE COAST...AND THE MID TO UPPER 60S FURTHER  
WEST. LOWS TONIGHTS WILL BE MUCH WARMER...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S  
TO LOWER 50S TO THE EAST AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S FURTHER WEST AND  
ALONG THE COAST. 32/EE  
 
FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS  
AMPLIFIES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHILE SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN  
STATES. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHERN  
PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND ADVANCES TO  
NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE STALLING WHILE A LARGE SURFACE  
BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN STATES. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES  
MONDAY NIGHT WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS THE SURFACE HIGH  
CONTINUES TO NEAR THE EAST COAST AND A SURFACE LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH  
A POSITIVELY TILTED WESTERN STATES LONGWAVE TROF...ADVANCES INTO THE  
PLAINS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY  
WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THEN POPS  
TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE LONGWAVE TROF ADVANCES SLOWLY  
EASTWARD...THE PLAINS SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES  
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS  
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BUT REMAINS JUST WEST AND NORTH  
OF THE FORECAST AREA. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY CONTINUE FOR  
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR LOW END CHANCE POPS  
MAINLY OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND A PORTION OF INTERIOR  
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA CLOSEST TO THE APPROACHING FRONT. HIGHS ON MONDAY  
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...A BIT COOLER OVER  
THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION...THEN MILD DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 70S  
FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S THEN  
RATHER MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE  
FRONT AND WILL WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S. /29  
   
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
 
THE LONGWAVE TROF  
CONTINUES EASTWARD AND MOVES ACROSS THE INTERIOR EASTERN STATES ON  
THURSDAY. THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST  
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AND USHERS MUCH  
COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. WHILE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE  
FRONT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...MUCH COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS  
FOLLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR AREA AND WILL RANGE FROM  
THE MID TO UPPER 30S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE  
COAST. GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY INTO  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WHILE THE SHEAR LOOKS  
WEAKER BASED ON THE LATEST DATA...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE  
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY  
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS 0-3 KM MUCAPES LOOK TO ATTAIN 500-1000  
J/KG AT LEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.  
 
THERE ARE A COUPLE PERIODS WHERE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST  
GETS CHALLENGING THE COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE FIRST  
OF THESE POTENTIAL TIMES IS MAINLY OVER CHOCTAW COUNTY AND POSSIBLY  
WAYNE COUNTY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE  
COLDER AIR FLOWS INTO THE AREA...BUT AT THIS POINT STILL EXPECT A  
COLD RAIN. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS  
RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 40S OVER INLAND AREAS RANGING TO THE  
LOWER 50S CLOSE TO THE COAST. THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE MOST  
CHALLENGING PERIOD OF THE FORECAST GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR  
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP IN A MODEST OVERRUNNING FLOW WHILE  
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S WELL INLAND TO THE  
LOWER 30S CLOSER TO THE COAST. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY OF WHETHER  
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION  
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHERE THE COLDER AIR WILL  
BE IN PLACE...AND ALSO WHETHER OR NOT PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP.  
FOR NOW HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CLOSE TO THE COAST DURING THIS  
TIME PERIOD AND CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS  
FOLLOW FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER  
50S. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE  
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S...THEN THE  
ENTIRE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 AS AN OVERRUNNING FLOW  
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. /29  
 
AVIATION...  
12Z ISSUANCE...MOSTLY IFR TO MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH  
02.12Z. LOW STATUS COMBINED WITH PATCHY FOG WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS  
MORNING IMPROVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FOLLOWED BY A  
BETTER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS AND WIDESPREAD FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE AT  
TIMES...TONIGHT AND MON MORNING. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHEAST AT 8  
TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 5 KNOTS  
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MON MORNING. 32/EE  
 
MARINE...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH  
THROUGH EARLY TUE AS THERMAL/PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF  
COAST CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD  
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST REINFORCED BY ANOTHER BROAD RIDGE MOVING  
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES TO MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH  
TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THIS NEXT RIDGE STALLS  
WELL NORTH OF THE COAST RESULTING IN A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH  
EARLY TUES. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS THEN BUILD THROUGH EARLY WED  
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST  
NORTHWEST. THE STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL  
DEVELOP LATE WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING  
DIMINISHING LATE IN THE WEEK AS A STRONGER RIDGE NEAR THE SFC TRACKS  
EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY LATE IN THE  
WEEK. HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE LEGS TO  
EXPIRE THIS MORNING WITH NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS  
OCCURRING ALONG AND IN THE WAKE OF THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING  
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING.  
32/EE  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
MOBILE 68 53 71 58 73 / 20 30 40 20 20  
PENSACOLA 64 53 71 59 72 / 20 20 30 20 10  
DESTIN 62 53 70 59 70 / 20 10 20 20 10  
EVERGREEN 65 50 71 58 77 / 20 20 40 20 20  
WAYNESBORO 66 52 65 57 75 / 30 30 50 30 20  
CAMDEN 65 51 67 57 77 / 20 30 50 20 20  
CRESTVIEW 65 51 73 58 76 / 20 10 30 20 10  
 

 
   
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...NONE.  
FL...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:  
CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE  
BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE  
BAY...  
 

 
 

 
 
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