312  
FXUS64 KMOB 032106  
AFDMOB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
406 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015  
   
SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND FRIDAY]
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE  
BEGUN TO DEVELOP BETTER OVER INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHWEST AL STRETCHING  
SOUTH INTO EXTREME NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE.  
FURTHER NORTH ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION WAS ENTERING EXTREME  
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA GENERALLY FROM CAMDEN TO  
BUTLER IN AL. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS  
EVENING ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE COAST AND THE AL/NWFL BORDER DUE TO A  
LATE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE DEVELOPING AND SHIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...  
AND AREAS FURTHER TO THE NORTH GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE  
STRETCHING FROM ANDALUSIA AL TO WAYNESBORO MS.  
 
LATEST MESO ANALYSIS FROM SPC DEPICTS MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG WHERE  
THE BETTER CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED WHICH WILL LIKELY ERODE QUICKLY  
AFTER 7 PM AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. ALOFT LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS  
AND MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE  
MOVING SE ACROSS AL AND SW GA THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED  
AS IT NEARS THE FL PANHANDLE COAST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRI. TO THE  
WEST A WELL DEFINED MID TO UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES  
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WHICH HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST IN THE PAST 24  
HOURS WHICH IS EVIDENT IN THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE  
FORECAST AREA SHOWING A NOSE OF WARMER/DRYER AIR GENERALLY BETWEEN  
700 AND 500 MB PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST. WITH THIS PATTERN BELIEVE  
WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE ACROSS THE  
FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BE MOSTLY DIURNALLY  
DRIVEN DUE TO THE LACK OF GOOD FORCING ALOFT AND DRIER MORE STABLE  
AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST.  
 
AS FOR TEMPS WILL CONTINUE LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV/ECS THROUGH  
FRI AFT DUE TO MORE STABLE AIR ALOFT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. LOWS  
TONIGHT WILL FALL TO THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE  
MIDDLE 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL CLIMB TO THE  
MIDDLE 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S  
CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE  
 
[FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY]...A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY  
MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST  
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH  
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM TX TO THE UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES AND AN  
ELONGATED MID LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN  
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL  
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST  
AREA TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTACT  
FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN MORE SCATTERED IN  
COVERAGE BY SATURDAY UNDERNEATH THE MOIST NORTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW  
PATTERN AND WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEABREEZE. WILL KEEP COVERAGE  
IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE REGION. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE  
ONGOING TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WITH LOWS RANGING AROUND 70 INLAND TO  
THE LOWER TO MID 70S NEAR THE COAST...AND HIGHS SATURDAY RANGING FROM  
AROUND 90 NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND. /21  
 
   
LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]
 
THE ELONGATED MID LEVEL TROUGH  
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE  
SOUTHEASTERN STATES LATE THIS LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND WILL SLOWLY  
RETROGRADE WESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AS IT OPENS  
INTO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT  
WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN  
OUR FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SLIGHTLY COOLER  
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...  
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY RANGING AROUND 90...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM AROUND  
70 TO THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.  
/21  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTH  
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY  
FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY  
EVENING HOURS THROUGH MONDAY. A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO  
PERSIST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE EARLY  
NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY  
NEXT WEEK WITH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING WINDS LESS THEN  
30 KNOTS. 32/EE  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
MOBILE 72 91 74 91 72 / 30 30 20 40 30  
PENSACOLA 75 91 75 90 74 / 30 30 20 40 40  
DESTIN 80 90 77 89 75 / 30 30 20 40 40  
EVERGREEN 71 94 70 93 70 / 20 20 20 40 30  
WAYNESBORO 71 95 71 94 71 / 20 20 10 30 20  
CAMDEN 71 95 71 93 71 / 20 20 10 30 20  
CRESTVIEW 71 95 71 93 70 / 30 30 20 40 40  
 

 
   
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...NONE.  
FL...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
32/21  
 
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