659  
FXUS64 KMOB 210952 CCA  
AFDMOB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
452 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015  
   
SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]
 
A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES  
TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING...  
WITH A GENERAL MID LEVEL ZONAL FLOW PREVALENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL  
GULF COAST REGION ON THE BASE OF THIS FEATURE. A COLD FRONT  
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN GA AND NORTHERN FL EARLY  
THIS MORNING...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MEANWHILE  
BUILDING FROM THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION  
TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. A COOLER AIRMASS HAS SETTLED  
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SURFACE  
OBSERVATIONS INDICATING THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER  
TO MID 50S OVER INTERIOR AREAS AS OF 4 AM CDT...WITH READINGS CLOSER  
TO 60 NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.  
 
A DRY GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH LOW  
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 0.6 AND 0.8 INCHES REMAINING IN  
PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION. WE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH  
TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO  
AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL  
CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TONIGHT.  
LIGHT WINDS AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER  
RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES LOOKING TO FALL  
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S AGAIN OVER THE INTERIOR...WITH READINGS IN  
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /21  
 
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER DAY OF MILD WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY  
AS A FLAT RIDGE PREVAILS ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN  
GULF PROVIDES A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL TREND SEVERAL  
DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 80S NEAR THE COAST TO MID 80S  
AT MORE INLAND LOCATIONS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON  
AS CLOUD COVER INVADES FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND A  
WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO  
FEATURES WILL PROVIDE A LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT. /08  
   
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO  
THE AREA AND THEN STALLS ALONG THE COAST. MODELS INDICATE THIS  
BOUNDARY WILL INTERACT WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROPAGATING  
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW TO GENERATE CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWER  
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE FRIDAY NIGHT THEN RESUME AGAIN  
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS A WEAK BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA AND  
BOTH ECMWF AND GFS PROJECT ENOUGH SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO TRIGGER  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM. KEPT CHANCE POPS IN  
FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH TRAIN OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RIPPLING  
THROUGH MOIST ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVERLYING A CONDITIONALLY  
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHUT OFF SUNDAY AS MODELS  
PROJECT A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION WITH ENOUGH OOMPH  
TO MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ALLOWING COOLER...DRIER AIR  
TO FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. IF MODEL TRENDS HOLD...A BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW  
WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY...CREATING RIP CURRENT ISSUES..FOLLOWED BY A  
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. /08 JW  
 

 
   
AVIATION...21.12Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED  
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT  
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT  
OVER THE INTERIOR WITH SOUTH WINDS 5-10 KNOTS DEVELOPING NEAR THE  
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. /21  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD  
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO  
TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND THE  
ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. NORTHEASTERLY  
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS EARLY THIS  
MORNING...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY TO  
SOUTHERLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES  
EASTWARD. A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER  
THE MARINE AREA LATE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE  
TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST AND THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE  
DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS STATES. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN  
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT WILL  
APPROACH THE GULF COAST STATES. /21  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
MOBILE 78 55 83 64 84 / 00 00 10 40 40  
PENSACOLA 78 60 82 68 83 / 00 00 10 30 50  
DESTIN 77 63 81 68 81 / 00 00 10 30 50  
EVERGREEN 78 52 85 60 81 / 00 00 10 30 40  
WAYNESBORO 78 52 84 62 81 / 05 00 10 30 30  
CAMDEN 77 52 84 60 81 / 05 05 10 30 40  
CRESTVIEW 80 52 86 61 84 / 00 00 10 30 50  
 

 
   
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR  
LOWER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE.  
 
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR  
COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA.  
 
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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