045
FXUS64 KMOB 222030
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
229 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)RATHER COMPLEX
BUT
WEAK OCCLUDED SYSTEM ACROSS AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY EASE OFF
TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN
AND/OR DRIZZLE TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING BUT WITH LITTLE IF ANY
ADDITIONAL MEASURABLE AMOUNTS EXPECTED. EXPECT LOWER CLOUDS TO
LINGER INTO MONDAY...POSSIBLY AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST. WILL ALSO
HAVE SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IF CLOUDS BREAK LATE IN THE DAY AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
CALM MONDAY NIGHT. NEXT SYSTEM COMING TUESDAY EVENING...THEREFORE
WILL NOT BE MUCH TIME FOR CLEARING BUT ALSO NOT MUCH TIME FOR
MOISTURE TO RETURN. FOR NOW WILL ONLY HAVE SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY POST FRONTAL OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MORE
TRICKY AS THERE IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MAV AND
MET GUIDANCE THE FIRST 36 HOURS OR SO...THE MET BEING THE COOLER OF
THE TWO. WILL SHAVE THE MAV A FEW DEGREES WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. /11
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA FROM MID WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO RAIN EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 30S AND LOWER 40S TO THE 60S...COOLEST
MORNING ON SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE
AREA. /11
AVIATION...[18/00Z ISSUANCE]
QUITE A BIT OF LOW STRATUS SPINNING
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BUFR DATA
AND TIME HEIGHT FCSTS OF MOISTURE SUGGESTS MAXIMUM WILL RESIDE IN
THE 1000-900 MILLIBAR LAYER THRU NEXT 24H. GIVEN WHAT WE ARE SEEING
BY THE CLOUD EXPANSE ON SATELLITE AND FCST...WILL USE A BLEND OF
LIFR TO LOW END MVFR CIGS. SOME -RA/-DZ BEING SQUEEZED OUT OF THE
CLOUDS AND WILL MENTION THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF FCST.
PATCHY BR WITH IFR/MVFR RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT. /10
MARINE...BROAD
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BECOME OFFSHORE AND DECREASE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS. SEAS WILL BE TRENDING LOWER AS WE ENTER THE NEW WEEK.
THE HIGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...FORECASTERS ANTICIPATE A FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS. A SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL RESULT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH A BUILDING
TREND IN SEAS. THE BETTER DEVELOPED SEAS LOOK TO OCCUR IN THE 20 TO
60 NM ZONES THURSDAY/FRIDAY DUE TO THE DURATION AND STRENGTH OF THE
EXPECTED MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FETCH. /10
FIRE WEATHER
COOL AND HUMID TODAY WITH PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLY
SOME DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME PATCHES OF FOG AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT. DRIEST AIR WILL BE LATE WEEK WHEN SURFACE HUMIDITY IS
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 35 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOONS. /11
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 48 68 46 71 / 10 05 05 10
PENSACOLA 50 67 50 67 / 10 05 05 10
DESTIN 54 66 53 67 / 10 05 05 10
EVERGREEN 44 65 44 69 / 10 05 05 10
WAYNESBORO 44 65 42 71 / 10 05 05 05
CAMDEN 44 62 44 70 / 10 05 05 10
CRESTVIEW 46 68 42 68 / 10 05 05 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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