168  
FXUS64 KMOB 290521 AAC  
AFDMOB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
1130 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015  
   
UPDATE
 
CURRENT PACKAGE ON TRACK. NO UPDATES PLANNED  
 
/16  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
06Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST.  
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKING IN...FOG DEVELOPMENT LIKELY THURSDAY  
NIGHT...BUT AM EXPECTING VISBYS TO REMAIN AT MVFR LEVELS OR HIGHER.  
 
/16  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE  
TO MOVE EAST AND BEGIN TO DEPART THE REGION...SO DECIDED TO GO  
SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH  
WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO  
FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS INTERIOR AL COUNTIES WITH UPPER  
30S AND LOW 40S ACROSS SOUTHERN MS AND NORTHWEST FL. TEMPERATURES ON  
THURSDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY WITH LOW 70S ACROSS  
MUCH OF THE AREA AND MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.  
07/MB  
   
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
 
SHORTWAVE ENERGY  
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SHIFT  
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AMPLIFYING A PROGRESSIVE  
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL SEND A COLD  
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY FORECAST TO  
BE OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH  
THE AREA MAINLY DRY AS THE BEST SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS STAY NORTH AND  
EAST OF THE AREA...WHILE THE DEEP LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN  
RATHER DRY. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE FROM THE SFC-700 MB MAY BE  
PRESENT TO RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONT.  
THEREFORE...WILL SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR NORTHERN AND  
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY  
NIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE  
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...WITH 30S  
EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.  
 
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC BY  
SATURDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER OUR REGION AS  
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CLOSES OFF AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN  
MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWEST STATES. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL REMAIN AT OR  
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.  
 
STRONG UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE SETS UP BY SUNDAY OVER THE LOWER MS  
VALLEY/SE STATES AS THE SOUTHWEST TROUGH CONTINUES TO VERY SLOWLY  
MOVE EAST AND ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY.  
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO  
A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET...WHILE MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT  
DEVELOPS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A PERIOD OF LIKELY LIGHT TO  
MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES LINGER  
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE  
AREA. DRY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING  
OF NEXT WEEK. BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE SOUTHERN STREAM  
TROUGH WILL FINALLY EJECT EAST WITH A SFC LOW DEVELOPING ALONG A  
FRONTAL ZONE. THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS LOW IS UNCERTAIN  
AT THIS POINT...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN  
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ONLY INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO 30% FOR  
THIS TIME FRAME UNTIL THE DETAILS OF THE LOW TRACK/TIMING BECOME MORE  
CERTAIN. 34/JFB  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST WITH WINDS AND SEAS RELAXING  
THROUGH THE EVENING. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THE  
DAY FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. ANOTHER  
FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL  
RESULT IN STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WITH SEAS ONCE AGAIN BUILDING WELL  
OFFSHORE. 07/MB  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
MOBILE 42 70 46 59 37 / 00 05 10 05 00  
PENSACOLA 45 69 48 61 39 / 00 00 10 05 00  
DESTIN 47 65 50 60 43 / 00 00 10 05 00  
EVERGREEN 36 70 44 59 33 / 00 05 20 00 00  
WAYNESBORO 39 72 43 58 33 / 00 05 20 00 00  
CAMDEN 36 71 42 57 32 / 00 05 20 00 00  
CRESTVIEW 33 70 46 61 34 / 00 00 10 00 00  
 

 
   
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...NONE.  
FL...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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