221  
FXUS64 KMOB 172330  
AFDMOB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
530 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014  
   
AVIATION
 
 
18.00Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...  
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDERNEATH  
SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. CALM  
TO LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO THURSDAY  
AFTERNOON. /21  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 328 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/  
 
SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON]...SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND  
GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE  
CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS/OZARKS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW  
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF HIGH  
CLOUDINESS INTO THE FORECAST REGION THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT.  
LIGHT WINDS...LOW DEWPOINTS...AND VERY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS WILL  
FAVOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE EXTENT OF THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL  
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW COLD IT WILL GET TONIGHT. FORECAST LOWS ARE  
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE MAV (THE MAV HAS NOT DONE WELL RECENTLY  
WITH LOW TEMPS DUE TO THE DRY SOILS)...BUT DID NOT GO QUITE AS LOW  
AS THE MET DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER. THIS YIELDS LOWS IN GENERALLY IN  
THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. IF THE HIGH CLOUDS STAY THIN  
ENOUGH...THEN IT WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER.  
 
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE SHEARS OUT AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE  
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT  
WEST OF THE MS RIVER WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST TOWARD THE AREA  
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS ALL DEEP LAYER FORCING IS LOST. ONLY A SLIGHT  
CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MAINLY CHOCTAW COUNTY LATE THURSDAY  
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY WITH JUST A FURTHER  
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID  
60S...WITH SOME UPPER 50S NORTH OF WAYNESBORO/BUTLER. 34/JFB  
 
[THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...A MEDIUM AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL  
SHORTWAVE OVER THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER  
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THEN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER  
VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER  
THE EXTREME NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE EAST  
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND BY  
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN  
CONUS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND MAINTAIN A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY TO  
EASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE A WARM FRONT  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN  
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS OR PUSH SLIGHTLY INLAND FROM THE  
BEACHES FRIDAY NIGHT.  
 
CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THURSDAY  
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO BETWEEN  
1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIP WEST OF THE  
ALABAMA RIVER THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS  
COVERAGE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE  
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES  
FROM THE WEST...WITH LIKELY TO DEFINITE RAIN CHANCES. INSTABILITY AND  
SHEAR REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME...BUT DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK  
OF THE SYSTEM...SOME STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE  
IMMEDIATE COAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ONE-HALF  
INCH NEAR DESTIN TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.  
 
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S INLAND  
AREAS...WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL  
SECTIONS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM 54 TO 59 DEGREES. LOWS  
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN 34 AND 39 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND  
FROM 40 TO 45 DEGREES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22  
 
LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...THE SURFACE LOW MOVES  
ACROSS THE COASTAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AND  
LOOKS TO HAVE A DRY SLOT IMPACTING THE SYSTEM...SO WILL HAVE CHANCE  
TO GOOD CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY THEN DRY  
CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE A CONTINUING  
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG STORMS EARLY SATURDAY OVER THE EASTERN  
COASTAL PORTION OF THE AREA. AN UPPER TROF MEANWHILE AMPLIFIES OVER  
THE CENTRAL STATES THROUGH SUNDAY AND CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN  
THROUGH TUESDAY INTO A LONGWAVE TROF WHILE BEGINNING TO ADVANCE INTO  
THE EASTERN STATES LATE IN THE PERIOD. WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT  
OVER THE AREA AND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE  
REGION...EXPECT TO SEE A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS TRACK EASTWARD  
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL  
PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS SMALL POPS RETURNING  
TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH GRADUALLY  
INCREASE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY. THERE IS THE  
POTENTIAL FOR A VIGOROUS SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ON THE COLD FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY AS THE FRONT ADVANCES TO NEAR THE AREA WHICH COULD PORTEND  
STRONG STORMS FOR TUESDAY...BUT THIS IS WELL INTO THE EXTENDED  
PERIOD AND WILL MONITOR FOR NOW. /29  
 
AVIATION...  
17.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE  
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 34/JFB  
 
MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN A  
LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT...BECOMING MORE EASTERLY ON THURSDAY.  
WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST ON FRIDAY AND VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST  
AND SOUTH FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE TX COAST. THE LOW TRACKS ALONG THE COAST OF  
AL/NW FL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...AND SOME STRONG  
STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN GULF  
WATERS. A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF  
THE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY AND  
GRADUALLY INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING STORM  
SYSTEM. SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT FRI/FRI NIGHT...BUT DIMINISH BACK  
TO 1-2 FT BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. 34/JFB  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
MOBILE 40 65 47 63 55 / 00 10 20 60 70  
PENSACOLA 42 64 49 63 58 / 00 05 05 50 70  
DESTIN 44 63 49 64 59 / 00 05 05 40 50  
EVERGREEN 36 62 41 61 49 / 00 05 05 60 80  
WAYNESBORO 37 60 42 58 44 / 00 10 30 70 80  
CAMDEN 36 61 40 56 45 / 00 10 05 70 80  
CRESTVIEW 35 65 43 64 52 / 00 05 05 40 60  
 

 
   
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...NONE.  
FL...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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