834  
FXUS64 KMOB 181124  
AFDMOB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
524 AM CST THU JAN 18 2018  
   
DISCUSSION
 
UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS PREVAIL  
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. /49  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 424 AM CST THU JAN 18 2018/  
 
NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...COOL AND DRY WEATHER  
CONTINUES THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN SETS UP  
ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE REGION. WITH  
WINDS (AND THUS, COLD AIR ADVECTION) WEAKENING, WE BEGIN TO SEE A  
SLIGHT WARMING TREND TODAY AS TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 40'S  
ACROSS THE AREA. HOPEFULLY THIS WILL HELP MELT AND EVAPORATE THE  
REMAINING ICY SPOTS ON ROADS. TONIGHT, CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS  
WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF RADIATIVE COOLING, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES  
TO BECOME VERY COLD ONCE AGAIN. THE PREVIOUS HARD FREEZE WATCH  
HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HARD FREEZE WARNING FOR AREAS GENERALLY  
NORTH OF I-10 LATE TONIGHT, WHERE LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER  
TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGREES. CLOSER TO THE COAST, TEMPERATURES WILL  
GET DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S. /49  
 
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...A 1028 MB SURFACE  
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE EAST  
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, BUT A TRAILING SURFACE RIDGE WILL  
REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO  
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THROUGH FRIDAY  
NIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY ON SATURDAY ALONG THE WESTERN  
PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE, BRINGING INCREASING LOW LEVEL  
MOISTURE AND THE POTENTIAL OF PATCHY FOG LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.  
ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE  
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES SLOWLY EAST, HOWEVER RAIN-FREE  
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER THROUGH THE PERIOD,  
WITH HIGHS FRIDAY CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 52 TO 56 DEGREES, AND HIGHS  
SATURDAY CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 60 TO 65 DEGREES. LOWS WILL TREND  
ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY NIGHT. /22  
 
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW  
PRESSURE AREA EXITING THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES EARLY SUNDAY WILL  
MOVE EAST OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, AND  
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO  
WILL WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA  
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS DEEPENS AND LIFTS  
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AN  
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON  
MONDAY.  
 
THESE FEATURES WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN BACK TO THE REGION LATE  
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING, ALONG WITH POSSIBLE  
EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS  
AROUND ONE-HALF INCH SHOULD OCCUR, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS  
NEAR ONE INCH POSSIBLE. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG SHOULD RESUME EARLY  
NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW  
THROUGH MID WEEK. /22  
 
MARINE...MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW GRADUALLY DIMINISHES THROUGH  
TODAY, WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW SETTLING IN FRIDAY  
AND SATURDAY. PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER DRAINAGE WINDS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE NEAR THE SHORE OVER THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS, AT LEAST UNTIL A  
BETTER ESTABLISHED SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO  
SUNDAY. ONSHORE FLOW THEN CONTINUES INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT  
COLD FRONT BLASTS THROUGH AND WINDS SHIFT BACK TO NORTHERLY MONDAY  
NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. SEAS DIMINISH TO AROUND  
1 TO 2 FEET INTO THIS WEEKEND BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING TO 3 TO  
5 FEET EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING WINDS. /49  
 

 
   
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ALZ051>060-  
261>266.  
 
HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR  
ALZ051>060-261-262.  
 
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ALZ051>060-  
261>266.  
 
FL...HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ201>206.  
 
HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR  
FLZ201-203-205.  
 
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ201>206.  
 
MS...HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MSZ067-075-  
076-078-079.  
 
HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR  
MSZ067-075-076-078-079.  
 
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MSZ067-075-  
076-078-079.  
 
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR  
GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675.  
 

 
 

 
 
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