672  
FXUS64 KMOB 011121 AAB  
AFDMOB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
621 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016  
   
DISCUSSION
 
UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
12Z ISSUANCE...IFR TO LOW END MVFR LEVEL CIGS/VISBYS WILL RISE TO  
VFR LEVELS THIS MORNING. LOCALIZED DROPS BACK TO LOW END MVFR LEVELS  
EXPECTED IN SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY. TONIGHT...AREAS THAT  
SEE SOME CLEARING AND RAIN WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING IFR  
LEVEL CIGS/VISBYS...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OF I65.  
 
/16  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 546 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/  
 
DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION FOR LAND AREAS BELOW.  
 
UPDATE...GOING THROUGH THE RIP CURRENT RISK...WITH SWELL HEIGHTS OF  
3 TO 4 FEET AND A PERIOD OF 6 TO 7 SECONDS OVER RIDING A TODAY RANGE  
OF LESS THAN A FOOT...CURRENT PACKAGE HAS BEEN UPDATED TO ADD A HIGH  
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR TODAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. EVEN WITH A FRONT  
GOING THROUGH MONDAY...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF THE HIGH RISK BEING  
EXPANDED FURTHER.  
 
/16  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/  
 
NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING  
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER  
VALLEY. THIS ENERGY WORKS WITH A COLD POOL SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN  
MISSISSIPPI SET UP FROM YESTERDAY'S RAIN (08Z TEMPS AT KMOB  
71/71...63/61 AT KHBG) TO CREATE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INDUCED SHRA/TSRA  
INITIALLY TODAY. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING THE  
COLD POOL ERODING...GENERALLY BY 18Z...WITH MORE SURFACE BASED  
WEATHER THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY  
INTO TONIGHT CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE  
FA...CLOSER TO THE PATH OF THE PASSING ENERGY. HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN  
SEE A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT...WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER AND  
RAIN COOLING NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S  
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 80S SOUTHEAST EXPECTED. TONIGHT...WITH THE ENERGY  
MOVING OFF...QUESTION WILL BE ANY RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER AM EXPECTING  
.AND THE AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW  
CONTINUING...WARM MOIST INFLUX CONTINUES...AND WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS  
CONTINUING...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED OVER  
MOST OF THE AREA.  
 
LOOKING AT THE CHANCE OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...ENOUGH  
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...BUT WIND  
SHEAR WILL BE LIMITED. WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT IN THE MID AND UPPER  
LEVELS...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT ORGANIZED  
SEVERE WILL BE LIMITED. /16  
 
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...THE REGION WILL REMAIN  
WEDGED BETWEEN AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND  
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND AN UPPER TROUGH PRESSING INTO THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST STATES FROM THE NORTH. MEANWHILE A  
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC  
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES WILL  
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE  
NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE I-65 CORRIDOR BY  
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST OFF THE COAST LATE  
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. GENERAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH MID  
AFTERNOON TUESDAY...AND THEN TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE  
SOUTHEAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL  
AMOUNTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL RANGE FROM ONE-  
HALF TO AN INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES  
POSSIBLE.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM 80 TO 85 DEGREES INLAND  
AREAS...WITH UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY  
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE  
IN THE LOW TO MID 6OS INLAND AREAS...WITH UPPER 60S ALONG THE  
IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LOWER INTO THE  
MID TO UPPER 5OS INLAND AREAS...WITH LOWER 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE  
COAST. /22  
 
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL  
DEVELOP AND PERSIST ACROSS THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE  
WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP AND DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND  
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW WILL  
CONTINUE TO ADVECT A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION WITH LOW TEMPS  
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 50S AND HIGHS NEAR TO BELOW CLIMO LEVELS WITH  
MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS. /13  
 
MARINE...LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT  
WHEN A MORE ORGANIZED FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FA. LIGHT TO MODERATE  
OFFSHORE FLOW FOLLOWS...LASTING INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. /16  
 

 
   
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR ALZ265-266.  
 
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR FLZ202-204-206.  
 
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:  
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB  
 
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