257  
FXUS64 KMOB 201008  
AFDMOB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
508 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014  
   
SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]
 
DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST  
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROF TO  
THE NORTH SHIFTS EAST. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO BETTER SUBSIDENCE  
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER LEADING TO MOSTLY  
SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS. WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE  
DEVELOPING BY LATE IN THE DAY...ADDING SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL  
MOISTURE TO THE REGION...COMBINED WITH BETTER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND A  
BETTER CHANCE TO DECOUPLE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVERNIGHT MOSTLY OVER  
LAND AREAS NORTH OF THE COAST WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY RADIATION FOG  
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUES MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF  
THE CURRENT MAV AND MET GUIDANCE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHS WILL RANGE  
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST AREAS WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING  
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF  
THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S FURTHER SOUTH TO THE  
COAST. 32/EE  
 
[TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY]...LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED  
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND THEN  
LIFT NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE  
EXITING THE PLAINS STATES EARLY TUESDAY WILL REACH THE MISSISSIPPI  
RIVER VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA  
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE  
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY AND THEN DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTH TOWARD  
LONG ISLAND ON WEDNESDAY. A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST  
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR  
WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 77 TO 82 DEGREES. LOWS  
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 46 TO 52 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND  
FROM 53 TO 58 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES  
ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...RANGING FROM 74 TO 79 DEGREES.  
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 39 TO 47 DEGREES INLAND  
AREAS...AND FROM 48 TO 54 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22  
   
LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]
 
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT  
EAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL  
SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. UPPER HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. SURFACE LOW  
PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF REGION WILL DRIFT EAST AS  
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM 75 TO 80  
DEGREES. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 77 TO 82  
DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM  
42 TO 48 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 49 TO 55 DEGREES ALONG THE  
COASTAL SECTIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM  
48 TO 55 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 55 TO 59 DEGREES ALONG THE  
COASTAL SECTIONS. /22  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
20.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE  
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 21.12Z. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF  
MVFR VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 21.09Z AND 21.13Z. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY  
NORTH AT 3 TO 5 KNOTS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TODAY SHIFTING SOUTH BY  
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE  
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI  
RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK LEADING TO A  
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH  
EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE  
TO A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE  
SOUTHERN GULF COMBINED WITH A DEEP RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING  
OVER THE WESTERN GULF. 32/EE  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
MOBILE 79 52 80 54 78 / 00 05 00 05 05  
PENSACOLA 79 54 80 57 77 / 00 05 00 05 00  
DESTIN 78 56 80 59 76 / 05 05 05 05 00  
EVERGREEN 76 47 80 46 76 / 00 05 00 05 00  
WAYNESBORO 77 46 80 46 77 / 00 05 00 05 05  
CAMDEN 77 48 79 46 74 / 00 05 00 05 05  
CRESTVIEW 78 50 82 48 78 / 00 05 00 05 00  
 

 
   
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...NONE.  
FL...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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