751  
FXUS64 KMOB 311149 AAA  
AFDMOB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
649 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015  
   
UPDATE
 
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE A DENSE FOG  
ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH 9 AM THIS MORNING. /13  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 348 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/  
 
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND  
TONIGHT...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN PARKED JUST NORTH OF THE  
AREA TODAY...KEEPING THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM  
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASED RIDGING  
WILL KEEP THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DRY TODAY. A FEW STRONG  
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH  
HIGHS WARMING IN THE LOW 80S. COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS AND LOW WET BULB  
ZERO LEVELS WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER CORES. THE GREATEST  
THREAT OF STRONG STORMS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ZONES NEAR THE  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK  
LEVEL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THESE AREAS. THE WEAK SFC FRONT WILL  
REMAIN NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. DUE TO THE BOUNDARY IN  
PLACE...A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS  
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH  
LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN PLACE. /13  
 
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE  
CENTRAL STATES MOVES TO NEAR THE EAST COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE  
A SHORTWAVE TROF OVER TEXAS MEANWHILE LIKEWISE ADVANCES EASTWARD AND  
MOVES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST STATES ON THURSDAY. A WEAK STALLED  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PRESENT OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI  
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND DISSIPATES DURING THE DAY. A SURFACE RIDGE  
PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LIGHT  
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL  
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER INTERIOR AREAS ON WEDNESDAY  
NEAR THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION  
LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR  
INTERIOR AREAS ON THURSDAY DUE TO MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT. DAYTIME  
HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE LOWER TO MID  
80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SIMILARLY WARM AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER  
50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN  
SLIGHTLY WARMER THURSDAY NIGHT. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS BOTH  
DAYS WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH DRY MID LEVEL AIR...ESPECIALLY ON  
THURSDAY...SO STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG GUSTY  
WINDS AND PRIMARILY SMALL HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. /29  
 
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AN UPPER TROF ADVANCES ACROSS  
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AMPLIFIES WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERIOR  
EASTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT...LATER MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC  
ON SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE  
ADVANCING UPPER TROF BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES  
ON FRIDAY...WHICH MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.  
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MAINLY WEST OF I-65 ON FRIDAY ARE  
FOLLOWED BY CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY  
NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS  
FOR SATURDAY FOR LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THEN  
DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE  
SOUTHEAST STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY THEN MOVES INTO  
THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT RETURN FLOW TO ENSUE  
WHICH INCREASES SOMEWHAT BY MONDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS  
RETURN BY MONDAY DUE TO MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT. /29  
 
MARINE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM  
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK.  
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL  
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY OCCUR  
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO  
AFTERNOON HEATING AND LOCAL SEABREEZE EFFECTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY NEAR SHORE AND OVER  
INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. /13  
 
AVIATION...  
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE  
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING  
WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. /13  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
MOBILE 81 60 82 61 81 / 10 10 10 10 10  
PENSACOLA 79 62 80 61 80 / 10 10 10 10 10  
DESTIN 75 64 76 63 75 / 10 10 10 10 10  
EVERGREEN 84 59 84 56 83 / 20 20 20 10 20  
WAYNESBORO 82 58 83 60 83 / 10 20 20 10 20  
CAMDEN 82 58 84 57 83 / 30 30 30 20 20  
CRESTVIEW 84 60 82 53 83 / 10 10 20 10 10  
 

 
   
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BUTLER-  
CONECUH-COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA.  
 
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR INLAND  
OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA.  
 
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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