341  
FXUS64 KMOB 231740  
AFDMOB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
1140 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014  
   
UPDATE
 
LINE OF STRONGEST STORMS EXTENDING FROM WILCOX COUNTY  
SOUTHEAST TO SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES OF FLORIDA. AS UPPER  
TROF BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY ORIENTED THIS LINE OF STORMS SHOULD  
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST AND BEGIN LIFTING OUT A LITTLE MORE  
RAPIDLY DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. WE HAVE BEEN MONITORING THE  
STORMS...AND MANY HAVE BEEN BROADLY ROTATING...BUT DEEP LAYER STRONG  
SHEAR OF 50 KNOTS OR GREATER IS ACTUALLY PROVING TO BE JUST A LITTLE  
TOO STRONG TO SUPPORT LONG LIVED ROTATING UPDRAFTS. IN ADDITION...TO  
THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WHERE THE STRONGER STORMS ARE LOCATED  
THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR HAS DECREASED AND BECOME MORE UNIFORM WITH  
HEIGHT. AS A RESULT...WHILE SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE STRONG (AND  
POSSIBLE EVEN BRIEFLY SEVERE) OVER OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...THE  
SEVERE THREAT IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FOR OUR AREA (ALTHOUGH  
CONTINUES JUST TO THE EAST). THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF  
OUR FCST AREA DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. RAIN CONTINUES BEHIND THE  
STRONGER STORMS...BUT WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE  
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR (CLEARLY DEPICTED IN THE DRY SLOT  
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) RAPIDLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. OTHERWISE...FCST  
REMAINS ON TRACK. WIND ADVISORY HAS YET TO VERIFY...BUT OBSERVATIONS  
UPSTREAM ARE INDICATING STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND THOSE ARE  
LIKELY TO DEVELOP EAST LATER TODAY SO WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY  
WHICH IS VALID UNTIL 6 PM. TEMPERATURES HAVE JUMPED SLIGHTLY ABOVE  
FCST MAX VALUES IN A FEW LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...BUT THE  
GENERAL MIDDLE 70S FCST LOOKS TO BE OK FOR THE MOST PART. TEMPS OVER  
THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 60S...AND MAX  
TEMPS HAVE ALREADY PEAKED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S OVER SOUTHWESTERN  
COUNTIES BUT ARE NOW DROPPING BACK DOWN THROUGH THE 60S.  
 
12/DS  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 437 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/  
 
..SQUALL LINE APPROACHES AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND  
BRINGS POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...  
 
SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...VIGOROUS MID LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WAS  
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH AN AREA OF COLD CLOUD  
TOPS INDICATED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM COAST SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA  
TO OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST. COLDER CLOUDS/CONCENTRATED LIGHTNING  
DATA IS POSITIONED IN THE MORE ESTABLISHED...HIGH LEVEL DIFFLUENT  
FLOW AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SOON BEGIN LIFTING NORTHEAST. A  
STRONGLY DEFINED NEGATIVE TILT APPEARANCE AND DIFFLUENT FLOW TO THE  
MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY  
THE NOON HOUR. THIS WILL CAUSE ENHANCED ASCENT IN A DEVELOPING WARM  
AND MOIST SECTOR AS A WARM FRONT SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS  
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI. LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES VEER WITH H85  
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET STREAK INCREASING TO 50 TO 60 KNOTS  
DURING THE LATE MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON. LATEST SHORT RANGE  
MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE HODOGRAPHS BECOMING STRONGLY CURVED WITH  
0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES RANGING FROM 150 TO 300 M2/S2.  
THIS SUPPORTS ROTATING STORM UPDRAFTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES IN  
DISCRETE CELLS THAT FORM OUT AHEAD OF MAIN SQUALL LINE THAT IS  
PROGGED TO MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. LATEST  
HIGH RESOLUTION WEATHER MODELS INDICATE TIMING OF THIS LINE ACROSS  
SOUTHEAST MS BETWEEN 9 AM AND NOON...MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST AL AROUND  
THE NOON HOUR AND MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BETWEEN  
1 AND 3 PM. IN ADDITION TO THE ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL BE THE  
POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN ANY BOWING LINE  
SEGMENTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT THE RAPID EASTWARD  
PROGRESSION OF THE LINE...IS EXPECTED TO MITIGATE WIDESPREAD FLOODING  
ISSUES. LOOKS LIKE WET WEATHER WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA  
BY AND AFTER 3 PM. CLOUDS LOOK TO LINGER LONGER AS LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC  
CURVATURE IN HEIGHT FIELD ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES  
IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S  
INTERIOR TO LOWER/MID 60S BEACH AREAS.  
 
LATEST RADAR VELOCITY WIND PROFILES IN THE LOWEST 3 KFT SHOW  
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 25 TO 35 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO  
CONTINUE TO VEER AND TREND HIGHER THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL  
STORM SYSTEM MAKES A CLOSER APPROACH. GOOD MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A  
WINDY DAY WITH EAST NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTH TO  
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM 20 TO 30  
MPH WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED  
BEGINNING AT MID MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  
 
AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY COMPONENT IN WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH  
SPRING TIDAL CYCLES AND AN INCREASE IN HIGHER PERIOD SWELL RESULTS IN  
CONTINUED HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS TO POTENTIALLY DEADLY RIP CURRENTS  
ALONG THE BEACHES TODAY. /10  
 
[MONDAY AND TUESDAY]...A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH OUR SOUTHEAST  
MISSISSIPPI AND INLAND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA COUNTIES MONDAY MORNING  
WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST  
AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT  
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL  
QUICKLY EXIT EASTWARD BY NOON MONDAY. A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE  
TROUGH WILL CRADLE MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA MONDAY MORNING. A 150 KNOT  
300 MB JET DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS WILL CARVE OUT  
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO SOUTH  
TEXAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN ADVANCE  
EASTWARD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.  
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST  
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AS A SURFACE  
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE  
EASTERN GULF BY TUESDAY EVENING...AND THEN ACROSS THE FLORIDA  
PENINSULA AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER  
SYSTEM...HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BE IN THE  
NEAR 60 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S...SO  
EXPECT A COLD RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. /22  
 
LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...UPPER ZONAL FLOW WILL RESUME  
ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER THE WESTERN  
ATLANTIC. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL  
SETTLE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE  
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST  
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID  
60S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE  
MID 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WARMING INTO THE MID  
40S TO MID 50S SATURDAY NIGHT. /22  
 
AVIATION...  
23.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE  
CONVECTIVE LINE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS MOB/BFM BETWEEN 17 AND  
19Z AND PNS BETWEEN 18 AND 20Z. AHEAD OF THE LINE...WINDS TURN SOUTH  
AND RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRONGER WINDS  
EXPECTED WITH PASSING CONVECTION. IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE IN  
CONVECTION. /10  
 
MARINE...A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE  
LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...STRONG  
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE.  
FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY  
TODAY OVER THE OPEN ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN UP ACROSS BAYS AND SOUNDS. HIGH SEAS  
CONTINUE. DATA COLLECTION PLATFORMS AT 23.09Z INDICATE SEAS OF 8 FEET  
AT BUOY 42012 AND 42040. AS SQUALL LINE OF STORMS MOVE EAST  
TODAY...WINDS...WAVES AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER. MARINERS  
SHOULD BE ALERT TO SEVERE STORMS WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING INSTANCES OF  
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE.  
FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY...VISIBILITY  
REDUCING RAINS WILL BE COMMON IN STRONG TO SEVERE MARINE STORMS  
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS  
TODAY...LIFTS QUICKLY NORTHEAST...UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY  
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES INTO THE  
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS DECREASE AND SEAS SUBSIDE INTO THE MIDDLE  
OF THE WEEK. /10  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
MOBILE 74 58 70 41 59 / 100 10 10 05 20  
PENSACOLA 75 63 72 46 59 / 100 10 10 05 40  
DESTIN 72 64 72 49 59 / 100 20 20 05 40  
EVERGREEN 73 55 71 40 59 / 100 10 10 05 20  
WAYNESBORO 74 51 66 38 59 / 100 10 10 05 05  
CAMDEN 72 53 68 39 58 / 100 10 10 05 10  
CRESTVIEW 73 61 74 42 59 / 100 20 10 05 30  
 

 
   
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:  
LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...  
 
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:  
BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...  
CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...  
MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...  
WILCOX...  
 
FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL  
ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND  
ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...  
 
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:  
COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...  
 
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:  
GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...  
 
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:  
CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE  
BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE  
BAY...  
 
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL  
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL  
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...  
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...  
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60  
NM...  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE  
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL  
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA  
MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20  
TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM  
20 TO 60 NM...  
 

 
 

 
 
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