118
FXUS64 KMOB 250446 AAA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
..UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1146 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
AVIATION...[06Z ISSUANCE]
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z SUN. A FEW
LOW TO MID CLOUDS SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT
5 TO 8 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND SAT MORNING BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT
8 TO 12 KNOTS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS SAT AFTERNOON DIMINISHING TO
LESS THAN 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUN. 32/EE
MARINE
NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE OVER THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS THIS EVENING WITH THIS TREND SHIFTING SOUTH FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TONIGHT. WINDS RANGING FROM 14 TO 19 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 24
KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR MOST AREAS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TONIGHT. 32/EE
AVIATION...[00Z ISSUANCE]
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z SUN. A FEW
LOW TO MID CLOUDS SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT
8 TO 12 KNOTS EARLY THIS EVENING BECOMING NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 9 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT AND SAT MORNING BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 14
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS SAT AFTERNOON. 32/EE
SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]
A WEAK AND PCPN-FREE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE GULF TONIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MORE EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY
(ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON) TOMORROW. MOISTURE
RETURN TO THE AREA ONLY SLIGHT ON SATURDAY. WITH RIDGING SFC AND
ALOFT OVER THE AREA...LOOK FOR CONTINUED NO PCPN. BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT A LITTLE COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS...WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S TOWARD THE COAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WARMING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S OVER ALL OF THE INTERIOR ZONES...LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST.
12/DS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND A SLIGHT MODERATION IN NIGHTTIME LOWS. NUMBERS IN THE MID
50S INTERIOR...LOWER TO MID 60S COAST.
LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE REPLACED BY A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER
RIDGE MIDDLE TO LATE WEEK ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WHILE AREA
WILL BE ON WESTERN EDGE OF A LARGE WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH.
CONSIDERING THE 24.12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT...CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH NON-
ZERO WILL NONETHELESS LOOK TO BE VERY LOW AT 10% OR LESS. UNDER
SOUTHERLY WINDS...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S INTERIOR IS SUPPORTED...WHILE BEACHES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MODERATE EACH NIGHT...MOVING WELL INTO THE 60S BY
NEXT WEEK...TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. /10
AVIATION [18Z TAF ISSUANCE]
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH RESULTING IN LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY. VFR
CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS. /10
MARINE
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE MARINE AREA
THIS EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RIDGE
SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY. AN OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MARINE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...
INCREASING TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PATTERN
WILL PREVAIL LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
12/DS
FIRE WEATHER
A DRY MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS FORECAST WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. FIRE DANGER WILL BE
ELEVATED THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS DUE TO LOW DAILY RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES AND GENERALLY GOOD DISPERSION. ALTHOUGH CRITICALLY LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST ON SATURDAY...NOT MEETING ENERGY RELEASE
COMPONENT (ERC)...KBDI AND WIND SPEED CRITERIA NECESSARY FOR FIRE
WEATHER WATCH/RED FLAG WARNING ISSUANCE. /10
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 59 86 61 86 64 / 00 00 00 05 05
PENSACOLA 63 87 66 85 68 / 00 00 00 05 05
DESTIN 67 79 68 83 70 / 00 00 00 05 05
EVERGREEN 50 87 54 89 59 / 00 00 00 05 05
WAYNESBORO 51 87 54 88 59 / 00 00 00 05 05
CAMDEN 49 87 53 88 60 / 00 00 00 05 05
CRESTVIEW 50 89 53 90 59 / 00 00 00 05 05
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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