542  
FXUS64 KMOB 302045  
AFDMOB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
345 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016  
   
NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
A COOL, DRY AND STABLE SURFACE  
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT  
AND SATURDAY AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES  
TO SPIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR OR EVEN  
A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S OVER  
NORTHERN INTERIOR COUNTIES TO THE LOWER 60S AT THE COAST. MAX TEMPS  
ON SATURDAY AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW  
TO A FEW MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION. 12/DS  
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
AN UPPER LOW OVER  
THE TENN RIVER VALLEY MOVES NORTH TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, THEN  
HEADS EAST, OPENING AS IT MOVES TO OVER THE JERSEY COAST. A SECOND  
CLOSED SYSTEM DIVES SOUTH, THEN MOVES EAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TO  
THE ROCKIES, PUSHING AN UPPER RIDGE FROM OVER THE PLAINS TO OVER/JUST  
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS ALLOWS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE TO  
BUILD OVER THE APPALACHIANS. SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY, ALONG WITH  
MATTHEW MOVING OVER THE CARIBBEAN HELP TO KEEP THE RIDGE ON THE WEAK  
SIDE. STILL, THE RIDGE BRINGS A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN  
THE LOWER LEVELS AND KEEP A DECENTLY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE FA THROUGH  
MONDAY, UNTIL MATTHEW MOVING OVER THE CARIBBEAN ADDS ENOUGH OF AN  
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO START PUSHING ATLANTIC  
MOISTURE WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEAST.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, WITH THE DECENTLY DRY AIRMASS ALLOWING FOR A LARGER  
THAN SEASONAL TEMPERATURE RANGE COMBINED WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE  
FROM THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING OVER THE MISS RIVER, TEMPS RISE INTO THE  
COMING WEEK, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE ID TO UPPER 80S, OVERNIGHT  
LOWS RISING FROM THE MID 50S TO ROUND 60 SATURDAY NIGHT TO AROUND 60  
TO THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT.  
 
/16  
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
THE EXTENDED PART OF THE  
FORECAST CONTINUES TO SEE THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGING IN ITS  
HANDLING OF THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE CONUS AND ULTIMATELY,  
MATTHEW. THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING THE UPPER LOW MOVING FROM OVER THE  
ROCKIES NORTHEASTWARD, WITH A LOBE OF ENERGY SWINGING AROUND THE  
SOUTH, THEN EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS FLATTENS THE WEAK RIDGE  
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, BUT BUILD A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS. THIS  
STALLS MATTHEW OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. THIS KEEPS A MORE  
NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW, BRINGING IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND WITH THAT,  
A WARMER WETTER FORECAST.  
 
THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND, ADVERTISES A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION  
OF THE LOBE AROUND THE UPPER LOW, ALLOWING MATTHEW TO MOVE FARTHER  
NORTH ALONG THE COAST AROUND AN UPPER HIGH SITUATED OVER THE ATLANTIC  
BEFORE THE THE LOBE BEGINS TO PULL MATTHEW NORTH ALONG THE EAST  
COAST.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, WITH EACH GUIDANCE CONSISTENT IN THEIR  
INTERPRETATION, ALBEIT A BIT SLOWER IN THE GFS THAN PREVIOUS RUNS,  
HAVE WENT WITH A BLENDED APPROACH TO GAIN SOME CONFIDENCE. TEMPS  
REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL, BUT HAVE KEPT RAIN OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF  
THE FA WITH THESE AREAS SEEING BETTER EASTERLY, THUS MOISTER FLOW,  
THEN OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE FA AS THE MOISTURE GETS PUSHED WEST BY  
DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MID WEEK.  
 
/16  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BE CENTERED  
NORTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE MARINE AREA  
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT). THE  
PREVAILING LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY  
AND LIKELY INCREASE SOMEWHAT BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT  
WEEK. WILL LIKELY SEE A DIURNAL FLUCTUATION IN WINDS NEAR THE COAST  
AND OVER AREA BAYS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A MORE  
OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT OVERNIGHT AND A MORE ONSHORE COMPONENT  
DURING THE AFTERNOONS. SMALL SEA STATES (1 FOOT OR LESS) THIS  
WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...INCREASING SOME BY MID  
WEEK (3 TO 4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE). 12/DS  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
MOBILE 60 84 61 85 / 0 0 0 0  
PENSACOLA 62 83 65 84 / 0 0 10 0  
DESTIN 66 83 66 84 / 0 0 10 0  
EVERGREEN 54 84 55 86 / 0 0 0 0  
WAYNESBORO 55 84 56 85 / 0 0 0 0  
CAMDEN 53 84 56 85 / 0 0 0 0  
CRESTVIEW 54 85 54 88 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...NONE.  
FL...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:  
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB  
 
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