480  
FXUS64 KMOB 181018  
AFDMOB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
518 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014  
   
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)
 
LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS STARTING  
TO SHOW A MORE DEFINED SFC LOW OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS  
APPROXIMATELY 60NM EAST ENE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER MEANDERING  
TO THE NORTH AND EAST DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. LATEST  
GUIDANCE FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE LOW CENTER TRACKING NE  
TOWARDS THE EAST FLORIDA PANHANDLE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA  
FLORIDA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH CONTINUES TO PLACE THE  
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL OVER EASTERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF  
THE CWFA THROUGH ABOUT 18Z TODAY THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST  
THROUGH THIS EVENING. ALOFT GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS STILL  
NOTED IN THE GUIDANCE MOSTLY OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS  
STRETCHING SOUTH TO BEYOND 60NM FROM SHORE AND INLAND MOSTLY OVER  
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THEN  
GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. AS THE SFC LOW  
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE NEAR SHORE GULF WATERS HEAVIER  
RAINBANDS MAINLY EAST AND NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO  
AFFECT THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE RESULTING IN RAINFALL TOTALS  
BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE  
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE STRETCHING NORTHWARD  
OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AL GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR.  
AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS  
MENTIONED ABOVE THOUGH BELIEVE WE WILL SEE SOME WESTERN COUNTIES  
DROPPED FROM THE WATCH BY LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON  
AS THE HEAVIER RAIN SHIFTS MORE TO THE EAST. WITH THIS HAVE MADE A  
FEW TWEAKS TO THE EARLIER FORECAST MOSTLY KEEPING SLIGHTLY BETTER  
RAIN CHANCES ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THIS  
EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE FOR  
HIGHS TODAY THROUGH UNDERCUTTING THESE VALUES A DEGREE OR TWO DUE TO  
CLOUDS AND RAIN. FOR TONIGHT WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE COOLER MAV  
GUIDANCE DUE TO WRAP AROUND CLOUDS AND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A GOOD  
NORTHERLY FLOW NEAR THE SFC. 32/EE  
 
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED  
NEAR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES  
OFF INTO THE WESTERN ALTANTIC LATER IN THE DAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED  
UPPER LOW FOLLOWING SOON AFTER. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA  
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST  
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION WITH THE DEPARTING  
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH A DRY  
FORECAST CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A  
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY THEN RETURN TO SEASONABLE  
VALUES BY SUNDAY. /29  
   
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
 
UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS EAST OF  
THE AREA ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROF ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN STATES  
THROUGH TUESDAY. A SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH BRINGS A WEAKENING  
TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WHICH MOVES THROUGH  
THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. A DRY FORECAST  
CONTINUES FOR MONDAY THEN WILL HAVE SMALL POPS RETURN TO THE  
NORTHWESTERN PORTION MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING  
FRONT...THEN CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE FOR TUESDAY. WILL HAVE SMALL  
POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION TUESDAY EVENING BUT OTHERWISE A DRY  
FORECAST FOLLOWS THROUGH THURSDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS INTO  
THE EASTERN STATES. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE  
SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO A FEW DEGREES  
ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY. /29  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
12Z ISSUANCE...LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 18.18Z FOLLOWED  
BY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 20.09Z THEN MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS  
THROUGH 20.12Z. LOW CLOUDS...LIGHT FOG AND PERSISTENT RAIN WILL  
CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY TODAY THEN TAPER OFF SLOWLY FROM WEST  
TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE  
NORTH AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH EARLY THIS  
AFTERNOON THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT  
AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. 32/EE  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
A WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS  
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN  
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. WITH THIS PATTERN A  
STRONG NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA  
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING WITH FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO NEAR GALE  
FORCE...MOSTLY WELL OFFSHORE...GENERALLY SOUTH OF PENSACOLA AND  
DESTIN STRETCHING EASTWARD. SEAS UP TO 9 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE  
ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST WELL OFFSHORE. NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL  
BEGIN DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE  
MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE MARINE AREA  
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL  
BUILD OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A  
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH BY WEDNESDAY  
RESULTING IN A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW LATER IN THE WEEK. 32/EE  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
MOBILE 69 50 76 53 79 / 60 10 05 05 05  
PENSACOLA 66 53 75 56 76 / 80 20 05 05 05  
DESTIN 65 54 72 57 73 / 90 40 10 05 00  
EVERGREEN 63 48 74 50 77 / 80 30 05 05 05  
WAYNESBORO 66 47 76 49 80 / 50 20 05 05 05  
CAMDEN 63 48 74 50 77 / 80 30 05 00 00  
CRESTVIEW 64 49 73 49 77 / 90 40 05 05 00  
 

 
   
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:  
LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...  
 
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:  
CONECUH...COVINGTON...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER  
MOBILE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...  
 
FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:  
COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...  
INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...  
 
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:  
COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...  
 
MS...NONE.  
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING  
ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO  
PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL  
TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN  
MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN  
MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO  
60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20  
TO 60 NM...  
 

 
 

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab AL Page
The Nexlab FL Page
The Nexlab MS Page Main Text Page