422  
FXUS65 KBYZ 242101  
AFDBYZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT  
301 PM MDT FRI MAR 24 2017  
   
SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN
 
 
THIN HIGH CLOUDS WERE SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE AREA THIS  
AFTERNOON. BAROCLINIC LEAF ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE  
PACIFIC COAST, WAS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY APPROACHING THE  
REGION. SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT WAS SEEN MOVING E THROUGH THE PACIFIC  
NW. THE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT AND AN UPPER JET  
WILL BRING RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT DIVERGENCE TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.  
MODELS BRING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE WEST AFTER 06Z TONIGHT,  
WHICH WILL CUT OFF ANY GUSTY GAP WINDS. WENT WITH CHANCE POPS OVER  
AND NEAR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS BEGINNING AT 09Z. THE FRONT MOVES  
THROUGH THE REGION DURING SAT., WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES IN QPF  
FIELDS. THE NAEFS TABLE SHOWED ABNORMALLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS  
OVER THE AREA SAT. AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SO BLENDED IN HIGHER  
QPF'S FROM THE GFS INTO THE FORECAST. SPREAD CHANCE POPS E  
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ZONES THROUGH 18Z, THEN HAD THEM OVER THE REST  
OF THE AREA SAT. AFTERNOON. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS OVER THE SW  
MOUNTAINS, NE BIGHORNS AND FOOTHILLS. THE FLOW WILL TURN NORTHERLY  
THROUGH 700 MB, WHICH WILL FAVOR CERTAIN HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS.  
ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE WEST SAT. AFTERNOON WITH LIFTED  
INDICES AROUND ZERO DEGREES C.  
 
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA SAT. NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY  
WHILE SPLITTING. THE 700 MB FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SE ZONES  
SAT. NIGHT BRINGING THE LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION TO THAT AREA.  
CONTINUED LIKELY POPS IN THE SW MOUNTAINS, NE BIGHORNS AND  
FOOTHILLS, WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. THE AREA WILL DRY OUT FROM  
W TO E LATE SAT. NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY AFTERNOON  
AND EVENING WILL BE DRY UNDER THE NEXT RIDGE, THEN CHANCES FOR  
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE W AGAIN UNDER DIFFLUENCE  
FROM THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH.  
 
TEMPERATURES REACHED THE 60S IN MANY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS  
WILL BE IN THE 50S BEHIND THE FRONT ON SAT., WITH SOME 60S  
POSSIBLE OVER THE E AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ON SUN., HIGHS WILL BE  
FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ARTHUR  
   
LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI
 
 
A PROGRESSIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE  
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ABOUT EVERY OTHER  
DAY. NONE OF THE PRECIPITATION EVENTS INDIVIDUALLY LOOK TERRIBLY  
HEAVY, BUT COMBINED A FEW PLACES COULD SEE OVER AN INCH OF  
PRECIPITATION BY NEXT WEEKEND. AREAS FROM ROSEBUD COUNTY EAST LOOK  
TO BE THE MOST FAVORED FOR THIS EVENTUALITY. WHILE THERE IS NOT A  
LOT OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ANY OF THESE SYSTEMS, THERE IS  
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE  
FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER HILLTOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS, AS WELL AS THE  
MOUNTAINS. SYSTEMS ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT, THEN AGAIN THURSDAY AND  
SATURDAY. HIGHS LOOK TO STAY IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH LOWS IN THE  
30S THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHAMBERS  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS  
EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KLVM THROUGH THE EVENING AS  
WELL. CLOUDS AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW  
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY MORNING AFTER 12Z ALONG WITH  
WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO  
MENTION IN TAF BUT MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS  
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH ON SATURDAY. DOBBS  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
 
 
SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI  
-----------------------------------------------------------  
BIL 044/056 036/057 038/060 041/053 036/059 039/057 037/050  
15/W 41/B 02/W 45/R 21/B 23/W 53/W  
LVM 038/051 030/055 034/055 032/051 032/057 036/054 032/049  
35/T 51/B 25/W 84/O 11/B 36/W 43/W  
HDN 040/056 033/060 035/063 039/055 034/061 036/060 037/052  
15/W 31/B 02/W 45/R 21/B 12/W 54/W  
MLS 040/060 038/061 037/065 041/055 036/060 038/062 037/053  
03/W 31/B 01/B 36/R 41/B 11/B 33/W  
4BQ 038/062 038/058 036/063 038/054 036/058 036/060 036/051  
03/W 72/W 01/B 46/R 51/U 11/B 54/W  
BHK 036/062 037/059 033/062 036/054 035/057 034/059 035/050  
03/W 63/W 01/B 37/R 62/W 11/B 23/W  
SHR 037/055 033/055 032/059 036/051 033/059 035/059 035/049  
16/W 62/W 02/W 55/R 31/U 12/W 55/W  
 

 
   
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MT...NONE.  
WY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
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