522  
FXUS65 KBYZ 260147  
AFDBYZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT  
747 PM MDT SUN JUN 25 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
 
QUIET WEATHER IN STORE TONIGHT AS BUILDING UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES  
THE REGION. WE ARE STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST, SO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL  
GIVE US ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT, THOUGH NOT AS COOL AS THE  
PAST COUPLE. DID TWEAK EXPECTED LOWS DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN THE  
NOTORIOUSLY COOLER SPOTS, OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.  
MONDAY WILL BE HOTTER WITH SOME HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE  
IN THE WEST BY LATE IN THE DAY, AS AREA OF PV LIFTS THRU THE  
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. JKL  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE
 
 
QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT AS HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A  
BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE WEST. A CUMULUS FIELD HAS FORMED OVER  
EASTERN MONTANA, AND WAS MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF  
DAYS. CUMULUS CLOUDS HAD VERY LITTLE VERTICAL EXTENT, SO WILL  
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT.  
 
THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY WITH THE  
AXIS MAKING IT TO AROUND BILLINGS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL  
PROVIDE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S  
TO RIGHT AROUND 90 DEGREES. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE LOW, BUT THERE  
WILL BE SOME DEWPOINT RECOVERY AS THE AFTERNOON HEATS UP WITH  
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING. WINDS WILL BE A  
LITTLE GUSTY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES, BUT LOOK BORDERLINE FOR FIRE  
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS. HUMIDITY LEVELS LOOK BORDERLINE TOO WHERE THE  
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE (THE FAR TWO EASTERN COUNTIES). WILL  
CONTINUE TO HIT THE FIRE WEATHER WORDING HARD, MAINTAIN THE HWO  
AND A WEATHER STORY, TO HIGHLIGHT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. ENERGY  
MOVING INTO THE WEST FOR CONVECTION POSSIBILITIES LOOKS LATER AND  
WEAKER, SO BELIEVE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LOW AND MAINLY  
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. ENERGY SPREADS OUT  
ONTO THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND HEIGHTS LOWER IN RESPONSE AND  
THUS, THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL ZONES.  
 
THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES INTO THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY AS HEIGHTS LOWER.  
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS A LITTLE LATER, AND CROSSES THE EASTERN  
ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER, WITH THE  
WARMEST READINGS AND LOWEST HUMIDITIES OVER THE EAST. THE CHANCE  
OF THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE AND THESE STORMS COULD CONTAIN GUSTY  
WINDS. ALL OF THESE FACTORS CONTRIBUTE TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS  
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HUMIDITY LEVELS LOOK BORDERLINE  
AT THIS TIME SINCE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH DURING THE EARLY  
AFTERNOON HOURS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. SHOULD THE FRONTAL TIMING  
SLOW, THIS WOULD HELP CONFIDENCE FOR A FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT.  
WILL GIVE MODELS A COUPLE MORE RUNS TO GAIN MORE CONFIDENCE ON  
FRONTAL TIMING. THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS WILL BE OVER THE  
FAR EAST, BUT MODELS WERE KEEPING THE HIGHEST CAPES IN THE  
DAKOTAS. CAPES AROUND 600J/KG COULD LEAD TO SOME SMALLER HAIL AND  
GUSTY WINDS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. TWH  
   
LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN
 
 
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SHORTWAVE EXITING EASTERN  
MONTANA, BRINGING A CHANGE TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR  
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS  
ACROSS THE REGION. FIRE CONCERNS SHOULD BE MUCH LOWER ON  
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES  
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 20 PERCENT.  
 
UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON,  
ALONG WITH COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES  
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER ARE  
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID  
TO UPPER 70S. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND INTO  
THE WEEKEND AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH A CHANCE  
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND, DEPENDING ON  
THE TIMING OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. DOBBS  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MOSTLY  
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. DOBBS  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
 
 
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN  
-----------------------------------------------------------  
BIL 054/090 063/084 055/079 055/077 053/080 056/085 058/085  
00/U 24/T 31/B 22/T 11/B 11/U 22/T  
LVM 046/087 055/078 046/076 045/075 045/078 047/082 049/081  
01/U 35/T 32/T 22/T 11/B 12/T 12/T  
HDN 049/092 060/087 054/082 054/079 052/081 054/089 057/088  
00/U 23/T 41/B 32/T 11/B 11/U 22/T  
MLS 052/089 063/089 056/084 056/080 053/081 055/087 060/088  
00/U 03/T 42/T 12/T 22/W 11/U 22/T  
4BQ 046/088 062/089 055/082 055/078 051/080 054/086 058/087  
00/U 02/T 42/T 23/T 21/B 11/U 11/B  
BHK 044/081 056/088 053/080 052/076 049/077 051/082 055/084  
00/U 02/T 32/T 13/T 32/T 11/B 22/T  
SHR 046/087 056/084 052/077 050/074 048/078 050/083 053/084  
00/U 23/T 43/T 32/T 21/B 11/U 11/B  
 

 
   
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MT...NONE.  
WY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
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