321
FXUS65 KBYZ 071643
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
943 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
MORNING UPDATE
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND THEREFORE NO UPDATES ARE
PLANNED AT THIS TIME. A FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH IT WHICH
MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT POP CHANCE FOR THESE AREAS. WEB CAMS SHOW
SNOW HAS ENDED IN COOKE CITY BUT WITH SATELLITE SHOWING MORE
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEAST OUT OF IDAHO...AND THIS COMBINED
WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED WAVE...BELIEVE SNOW SHOWERS WILL RETURN
THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS
GOING FOR THE DAY ACROSS THIS AREA. WINDS WILL BE DOWNSLOPING
TODAY BUT MUCH LIGHTER THAN WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY. THIS MAY
HINDER SHOWERS ON THE PLAINS BUT GIVEN WEAKER WINDS...WILL KEEP
SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES GOING. WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AT TIMES
ACROSS THE PLAINS...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS THIS AFTERNOON. HOOLEY
LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. RIDGE OVER THE REGION MONDAY WILL TRANSITION TO STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY TUESDAY AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
WITH TUESDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED THANKS TO
ANOTHER DOWNSLOPE AND WELL MIXED DAY. HAVE NUDGED FORECAST HIGHS
UP FOR TUESDAY.
IT APPEARS SPLIT TROUGH THEN MOVES ACROSS INTER MOUNTAIN WEST AND
GREAT BASIN AT MIDWEEK. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY BE A LITTLE TRICKY
FOR TEMPS AS WE MUST BALANCE OUT WARMING DOWNSLOPE WINDS VERSUS
TIMING OF WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT. GFS QUICKER WITH FRONT WHILE
ECMWF SLOWER.
DGRPG/DT FUNCTION SHOWS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER
INCONSISTENT FOR LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW
AS TO WHICH MODEL OR CYCLE RUN IS BEST. THEREFORE WILL MAKE LITTLE
CHANGES FOR LATTER PART OF WEEK BUT MAY TREND INHERITED FORECASTS
SLIGHTLY TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY.
AVIATION
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WILL CAUSE
OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE
VFR FLYING WEATHER WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT. HUMPHREY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053 032/053 029/053 031/061 033/052 030/047 028/044
2/W 20/U 00/B 00/B 02/W 22/W 22/W
LVM 051 027/049 024/052 031/058 030/050 025/043 023/042
3/W 20/N 00/B 00/N 03/W 22/W 22/W
HDN 057 032/056 029/056 026/062 031/056 028/049 026/048
2/W 20/U 00/U 00/B 02/W 22/W 22/W
MLS 057 031/056 029/054 029/063 032/055 030/050 027/048
0/B 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 22/W 22/W
4BQ 056 032/056 032/055 030/061 032/055 027/048 025/047
2/W 20/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 22/W 22/W
BHK 055 031/056 030/055 031/063 032/053 028/048 026/046
0/B 20/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 22/W 22/W
SHR 055 031/055 026/051 023/061 028/056 024/045 022/046
2/W 20/B 00/U 00/B 02/W 22/W 22/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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