453
FXUS65 KBYZ 090235
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
835 PM MDT TUE JUL 8 2008
SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING AND HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO LOWER CLOUD COVER AS DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE PLAINS. DID KEEP ISOLATED POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THIS EVENING AS VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING HIGH BASE CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURE AND WIND FORECAST
LOOK GOOD AND MADE NOT CHANGES. RICHMOND
LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE
DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL WEATHER ON TAP FOR EARLY IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...IE FRI AND SAT...IN THE WAKE OF BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE
AND DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE THU NITE. CONFLUENT NW FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTS
STABLE SURFACE RIDGING ADVERTISED BY ALL MODELS...WITH MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED WELL TO OUR SOUTH. WITH CONFIDENCE IN A DRY PERIOD OF
WEATHER HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH SAT NITE ACROSS THE AREA.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS WELL LESS THAN A HALF INCH WEST PARTS BOTH FRI
AND SAT...WITHOUT ANY SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS...SO DO NOT BELIEVE THERE
WILL EVEN BE ANY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION. FLOW BEGINS TO AMPLIFY WITH
DEEPENING PACIFIC TROF SUN/MON...AND ONSET OF SW FLOW COULD BRING
A SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO OUR SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS BY MON
AND/OR TUE. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL SE FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE UP THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO OUR EASTERN PARTS AS EARLY
AS SUN. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT FROM PACIFIC
TROF...IT APPEARS A PATTERN MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION
WILL TAKE SHAPE NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP WITH BROADBRUSHED POPS SUN-
TUE UNTIL MORE DETAIL CAN BE ESTABLISHED.
AS FOR TEMPS...FRI SHAPING UP TO BE QUITE COOL FOR JULY AS THU
NITE WAVE ALLOWS FOR A SURGE FROM THE NORTH. WITH 700MB TEMPS IN
THE LOWER TO MID SINGLE DIGITS THINK HIGHS WILL MAX OUT IN THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING COOLER AND HAVE DONE
THE SAME WITH FRI HIGHS AND FRI NIGHT LOWS. SAT SHOULD BE A LITTLE
WARMER AS RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...BUT WITH
CONTINUED EAST WIND WARM UP WILL BE GRADUAL AT FIRST WITH HIGHS
MAINLY LOWER TO MID 80S. MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING CAN BE EXPECTED
SUN/MON AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD. HAVE RAISED TEMPS A BIT
THESE DAYS AND COULD SEE TEMPS BACK TO THE LOWER OR MID 90S BY
MON. PROBABLY A BIT COOLER TUE WITH BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN AND
LOWER HEIGHTS AS PACIFIC TROF MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT.
JKL
AVIATION
NO SIGNIFICANT THREATS TO AVIATION TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. LOOK FOR
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN LATE WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL. BT
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 057/091 060/097 058/079 054/082 056/088 061/090 061/086
10/U 00/N 00/U 01/B 12/T 22/T 22/T
LVM 047/088 051/092 049/080 044/081 045/086 051/088 051/084
00/U 00/N 00/U 11/B 12/T 22/T 22/T
HDN 057/093 059/100 058/082 052/085 056/090 058/093 060/089
10/U 00/U 00/U 01/U 12/T 22/T 22/T
MLS 057/089 061/098 058/080 054/083 056/089 061/091 062/087
10/U 00/N 02/T 11/U 12/T 22/T 22/T
4BQ 057/088 060/099 058/082 051/083 054/087 059/091 061/086
10/U 00/U 01/U 11/U 12/T 22/T 22/T
BHK 053/087 058/097 053/080 053/082 055/083 058/087 058/083
10/U 00/U 02/T 11/U 12/T 22/T 22/T
SHR 051/085 053/096 053/080 047/081 051/087 054/088 054/084
10/U 00/U 01/U 11/U 12/T 22/T 22/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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