165  
FXUS61 KAKQ 220252  
AFDAKQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
1052 PM EDT THU SEP 21 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND WHILE TROPICAL CYCLONE JOSE LINGERS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND  
COAST. HURRICANE MARIA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS  
AND BERMUDA EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FROM  
CENTRAL WV TO CENTRAL PA, REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION  
TONIGHT. THE SKY IS MAINLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR SOME LIGHT CIRRUS  
FROM TS JOSE THAT IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  
SO EXPECT DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO  
LAST NIGHTS READINGS, ALTHOUGH EXPECT READINGS TO BE A DEGREE OR  
TWO HIGHER AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO WARM A DEGREE OR TWO  
EACH NIGHT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE N-NW OF THE LOCAL AREA  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SKY CONDITIONS WILL BE NO WORSE THAN PARTLY  
TO MOSTLY SUNNY. CONTINUED WARM AND DRY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN  
THE LOW/MID 80S, EXCEPT MID/UPR 70S AT THE BEACHES. LOWS IN THE  
60S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS STRONG INVOF ERN GREAT LAKES AND INTERIOR  
NE CONUS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO MON BEFORE WEAKENING  
THEREAFTER. MEANWHILE...A MUCH WEAKENED/REMNANT CIRCULATION (OF  
JOSE) SLOWLY CIRCULATES SSE OF NEW ENGLAND. OTHER THAN PERIODIC  
CLOUDS...ESP AT THE COAST BY/OVER THE WEEKEND-MON DUE TO LIGHT  
ONSHORE FLOW...EXPECTING DRY/MAINLY WARM. LOWS SUN NIGHT MAINLY  
IN THE M-U60S. HIGHS MON IN THE U70S-AROUND 80F AT THE  
COAST...M80S INLAND.  
 
WX CONDITIONS TUE-WED REMAIN DEPENDENT ON TRACK OF TROPICAL  
CYCLONE MARIA. A TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST (THAN THAT OF JOSE)  
WOULD BRING INCREASING WINDS/POPS...ESP ERN PORTIONS OF FA...MORE  
TO THE E WOULD RESULT IN DRIER-CONTINUED WARM WX. FOR NOW...GENERALLY  
GOING W/ PARTLY CLOUDY W/ LOW POPS (E PORTIONS). MONITOR FORECASTS  
FROM TPC ON MARIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY/WARM WX EXPECTED THU.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL INFLUENCE THE  
WEATHER PATTERN WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY LIGHT WIND. SOME  
PATCHY FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BUT INTENSITY AND  
LOCATION IS DIFFICULT TO DTERMINE.  
 
OUTLOOK: GENERALLY VFR/DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
TROPICAL STORM JOSE LOCATED SE OF CAPE COD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON  
IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY BACK TO THE WSW THROUGH SUNDAY. MEANWHILE,  
HURRICANE MARIA IS LOCATED N OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND IS  
FORECAST TO TRACK TO THE NNW THROUGH SAT AND THEN NNE THROUGH  
MON/TUE ABOUT EQUIDISTANT FROM THE CAROLINA COAST AND BERMUDA.  
 
LONG PERIOD SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE TOWARD THE COAST WITH SEAS  
GENERALLY 3-6FT. SOME PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL HAVE SEAS FALL  
BELOW 5 FT AT TIMES NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HOWEVER...THE SCA FOR  
HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE AND WILL BE EXTENDED TO 22Z SAT AS  
THE ENE SWELL CONTINUES. SWELL ARRIVES FROM MARIA MOST LIKELY  
BEGINNING LATE IN THE WEEKEND. SCAS FOR SEAS WILL LIKELY BE  
NEEDED THROUGH SUN. THE BULK OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE KEEPS  
MARIA OFFSHORE DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.  
MONITOR THE TPC FORECAST FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK OF  
MARIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FURTHER INCREASE IN SEAS IS  
EXPECTED MON-WED ALONG WITH AN INCREASING N WIND TUES-WED.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
TIDAL DEPARTURES CONTINUE TO FALL TODAY, WITH TIDAL DEPARTURES  
GENERALLY AVERAGING LESS THAN 1.5 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE. THIS HAS  
ALLOWED ALL OF OUR SITES TO STAY BELOW FLOOD STAGE DURING  
TODAY'S HIGH TIDE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LEWISETTA, BISHOPS HEAD  
AND BAYFORD, WHICH MAY GO ONE MORE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE THIS  
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH MINOR FLOODING. AS SUCH, WILL  
CANCEL/EXPIRE ALL OF THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WITH THE  
EXCEPTION OF THE CENTRAL BAY. WATER LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN  
ELEVATED ALL ALL SITES THROUGHT THE WEEKEND, BUT GIVEN THAT THE  
SWELL IS NOT AS LARGE AS WHAT IT HAS BEEN, THEY SHOULD STAY JUST  
BELOW FLOOD AFTER TOMORROW. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR ADDITIONAL  
FLOODING NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY IN THE BAY, AS THE SWELL FROM  
MARIA MOVES INTO THE AREA.  
 
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES ADJACENT TO COASTAL  
WATERS CONTINUES TODAY AND POSSIBLY TOMORROW AS SWELL/NEARSHORE  
WAVES WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.  
 

 
   
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ021>023.  
NC...NONE.  
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ075-077-  
078-084>086.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT  
SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...ESS/JDM  
NEAR TERM...JDM  
SHORT TERM...AJB/JDM  
LONG TERM...ALB  
AVIATION...JDM/JEF  
MARINE...AJZ/ALB  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...  
 
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