963  
FXUS61 KAKQ 270159  
AFDAKQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
959 PM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH  
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST  
MONDAY NIGHT AND CROSSES THE REGION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH  
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH ON  
WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A SFC BOUNDARY EXTENDING  
FROM THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT TO SE VA. THIS BOUNDARY PROGRESSED  
NE-SW THROUGH THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS AND HAS NOW  
BECOME STATIONARY. COOL AND CLOUDY OVER THE NRN/NE ZONES  
(TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S), WITH READINGS  
IN THE MID 50S ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR, AND LOW/MID 60S  
S OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR S-CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC.  
FOG HAS PUSHED ONSHORE, AND IS THICKEST ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST  
OF THE ERN SHORE WITH VSBY OF 1/2-1SM. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES  
THE FRONT BEGINS TO RETREAT TO THE NE BY 06Z, AND THEN LIFTS N  
OF THE AREA AFTER 08Z. THEREFORE, EXPECT FOG TO  
RETREAT/DISSIPATE AS WELL. SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT  
ASSOCIATED WITH A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD DISSIPATE  
BETWEEN 04-06Z. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS  
THE ERN SHORE TO THE LOW/MID 50S ELSEWHERE. MAINLY DRY AND  
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NE  
NC.  
 
INITIAL SYSTEM LIFTS INTO/THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MON...LEAVING FA  
W/ CONTINUED MILD/WARM CONDITIONS AS HI PRES (SFC-ALOFT) REMAINS  
INVOF SE CONUS COAST. GENLY MOSTLY CLOUDY MON MORNING, BECOMING  
PARTLY SUNNY BY AFTN. ALL ZONES WILL BE BACK IN THE WARM SECTOR  
MON, EVEN THE EASTERN SHORE SO ASIDE FROM LOCALLY COOLER  
READINGS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST, MOST AREAS WILL RISE INTO THE  
MID-UPPER 70S. NOT MUCH FORCING FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP, BUT WILL  
CARRY 20% POPS FOR AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS INLAND GIVEN SOME  
INSTABILITY BY AFTN.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN MON NIGHT, AS THE FRONT  
APPROACHES FROM THE W AND WILL CARRY CHC POPS WEST OF I-95 AFTER  
MIDNIGHT/20% OR LESS E. WARM WITH LOWS MAINLY 55-60 F. UPPER  
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE AREA TUE AS A SFC COLD FRONT PASSES  
BY LATE. CONTINUED WARM W/ HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80F  
THERE WILL BE A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND AFTN TSTMS. WILL  
CONTINUE WITH 40-50% POPS MOST AREAS, WITH A SMALL AREA OF 60%  
POPS ACROSS THE N. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW  
STRONGER STORMS TUE AFTN/EVENING AS SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL  
INCREASES AND SFC DEW PTS WILL BE NEAR 60 F, BUT OVERALL NOT  
LOOKING LIKE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WX. DRYING LATE TUE NIGHT WITH  
LOWS MAINLY 50-55 F, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WED, SOMEWHAT  
COOLER BUT STILL A LITTLE ABOVE AVG WITH HIGHS 60-65 NEAR THE  
COAST AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WELL INLAND.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
DRY WX EXPECTED FOR WED NIGHT THRU THU, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS  
DOWN OVER THE AREA TO ALONG THE EAST COAST. DECENT CHC FOR  
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS LATER THU NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT  
MORNING, AS LOW PRESSURE AND ANOTHER ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT  
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACRS THE REGION. DRY WX AND HIGH PRESSURE  
RETURNS FOR SAT AFTN THRU SUN.  
 
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S THU, IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID  
60S FRI, AND IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 SAT AND SUN. LOWS IN THE  
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WED NIGHT, IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S THU  
NIGHT, IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S FRI NIGHT, AND IN THE 40S SAT  
NIGHT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION ACCEPT ON THE EASTERN  
SHORE WHERE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE IFR FOG AND CLOUD  
CEILINGS. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT SBY UNTIL  
3-4:00 IN THE MORNING THEN FOG AND CEILINGS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE  
AS THE WIND SHIFTS FROM EAST TO SOUTH...THEN SOUTHWEST.  
 
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH RIC PROBABLY HAVING THE  
BEST CHANCE TO GET SOME RAIN. SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY ALSO MOVE  
INTO RIC DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS LOW CLOUDS MOVE INTO  
CENTRAL VA FROM THE SOUTH. UNSETTLED WX CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST  
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS BECOMING  
INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. PERIODS OF REDUCED  
AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING TIMES OF  
PRECIPITATION. DRY/VFR WED AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE N.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
PUT UP A HEADLINE FOR DENSE FOG OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM  
FENWICK IS TO PARRAMORE IS UNTIL 4 AM. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS  
LAYING ACRS NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND OFF THE SRN DELMARVA  
COAST. ALSO, LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SRN LAKE MICHIGAN. THAT LOW  
WILL LIFT NE ACRS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING,  
PULLING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE MARINE WATERS. AS A  
RESULT, NE THRU SE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME  
S 5 TO 15 KT LATER TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. LOW PRESSURE AND  
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN TRACK FM THE CNTRL/SRN  
PLAINS ENE AND ACRS THE LOCAL AREA TUE AFTN INTO EARLY WED  
MORNING. EXPECT SW OR S WINDS ARND 15 KT OR LESS MON THRU TUE IN  
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THEN, AS THE LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE  
OUT TO SEA LATE TUE NIGHT THRU WED MORNING, WINDS WILL TURN TO  
THE NW THEN N 15 KT OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FM THE  
N FOR WED NIGHT AND THU, WITH NE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS...BECOME E  
BY LATE THU. SEAS 2-4 FT; WAVES 1-3 FT THRU THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...LKB  
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB  
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB  
LONG TERM...TMG  
AVIATION...LKB/JEF  
MARINE...TMG/JEF  
 
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