119  
FXUS61 KAKQ 200135  
AFDAKQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
935 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT  
AND WEDNESDAY, THEN SETTLES NEAR THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA  
BORDER THURSDAY. THE FRONT DROPS FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE  
CAROLINAS FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NEW ENGLAND  
COAST.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
 
 
AS OF 930 PM EDT TUESDAY...  
 
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES WHAT HAS BECOME A VERY WEAK FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VA WITH WNW FLOW ALOFT.  
EARLIER LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS NOW BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED  
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VA WHERE LIKELY POPS WILL PERSIST THROUGH  
MIDNIGHT, WITH GENERALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS SE  
VA/NE NC. ITS MAINLY JUST SHOWERS NOW OVER METRO RICHMOND AND  
POINTS EAST TO THE PENINSULA AND VA EASTERN SHORE. ADDITIONAL  
TSTMS THROUGH 06Z WILL BE MAINLY OVER FAR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC,  
WITH POPS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO ONLY 20-40% FROM 04-06Z AND  
20% OR LESS AFTER 06Z. WITH SFC DEW PTS STILL IN THE MID 70S  
MOST AREAS, THE FRONT HAS CERTAINLY WEAKENED AND WILL MORE OR  
LESS WASH OUT/DIMINISH OVERNIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING. SOME PATCHY  
FOG/LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WITH SKIES EXPECTED  
TO PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT AT BEST, DO NOT ANTICIPATE DENSE FOG AT  
THIS TIME. CONTINUED VERY MUGGY TONIGHT, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM  
AROUND 70 F ACROSS THE NW AND IN THE LOW- MID 70S ELSEWHERE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...  
 
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY,  
AGAIN SERVING AS THE FOCUS FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS.  
WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BEING SUPPRESSED SLIGHTLY OVER THE  
AREA ON WEDNESDAY, THE MID- UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS SLIGHTLY  
STRONGER THAN TODAY. HOWEVER, STABILITY WILL BE HIGHER ON  
WEDNESDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND LESS AFTERNOON HEATING. AS  
SUCH, ALTHOUGH A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON, IT IS A FAIRLY LOW PROBABILITY. THE BEST COVERAGE  
WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WHERE THE  
MODELS SUGGEST SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHERN VA. AS  
SUCH, HAVE WENT WITH LIKELY POPS NORTH OF I-64 AND GENERALLY  
CHANCE POPS SOUTH. ANOTHER WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH NOT  
AS WARM AS TODAY. GENERALLY TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S NORTH AND  
LOWER 90S SOUTH. MAY BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105  
ACROSS NE NC WED AFTN, BUT FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAX HI WILL  
BE AROUND 103.  
 
THE FRONT SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA  
WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCE FOR  
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN VA/ NE NC AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE  
BUILDS FROM THE NE. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS THU AFTN AND THU  
NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER TAPERING TO CHANCE POPS TO THE  
NORTH. WITH THE RELATIVELY STABLE ONSHORE FLOW, AM NOT EXPECTING  
MUCH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  
 
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 ON  
THURSDAY, AND IN THE LOW-MID 80S ON FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...  
 
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LIFTED ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE  
DAY ON SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS FROM NEAR THE  
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH  
ACROSS THE REGION. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY FEATURE WARMER AND DRIER  
CONDITIONS AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS WELL NORTH OF THE  
REGION, PUTTING THE AREA IN S/SW FLOW. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM  
CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH  
MAY CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION. THE ATTENDANT COLD  
FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO  
MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH  
LINGERING POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY BRINGING DRIER AND  
COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH TO THE  
MID 80S ACROSS THE NE AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION.  
SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH  
S/SW FLOW AND LOWER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, HIGHS WILL GENERALLY  
BE IN THE LOWER 90S. COOLING OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT  
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION, TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID  
TO UPPER 80S ON MONDAY WITH EVEN COOLER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. LOW  
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
SUNDAY NIGHT. COOLER LOW TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED EARLY NEXT  
WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 925 PM EDT TUESDAY...  
 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PLAQUE PORTIONS OF  
THE REGION WITH SOME MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR VISIBILITIES. THE  
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION IS NOW SOUTH OF ALL TERMINAL SITES  
IN VA AND JUST IMPACTING ECG NOW. AS THE CONVECTION WANES OVER  
THE NEXT FEW HOURS SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.  
HOWEVER, DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE FLOW TURNING TO THE  
EAST, MODELS SHOW LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING AND WITH  
LIGHT WINDS, COULD SEE SOME LOWERING OF THE CEILINGS AND  
VISIBILITIES FOR RIC/PHF/SBY. HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS AT MVFR  
LEVELS BUT COULD SEE SOME LOWER CEILINGS ESPECIALLY FOR SBY. ANY  
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR LEVELS BY 13Z WITH CU  
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED LATER IN THE MORNING.  
 
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON  
AND EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED ACROSS  
THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS FARTHER S BY THURSDAY, WITH THE  
BEST POTENTIAL FOR AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY OVER  
SRN/SE VA AND NE NC. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY  
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER COASTAL NEW ENGLAND RESULTS IN ONSHORE  
FLOW. THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS RETURNS  
SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...  
 
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. CURRENT  
OBSERVATIONS SHOW GENERALLY WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVER THE  
WATERS. SEAS RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 FEET AND WAVES 1 FOOT. A BOUNDARY  
WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND  
OVERNIGHT TURNING THE WINDS TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST, AND  
ALSO BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL  
REMAIN LIGHT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, OUTSIDE OF ANY  
THUNDERSTORMS, GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS  
EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK NORTH OVER THE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO  
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL TURN BACK TO THE SE AND THEN THE S/SW AS THIS  
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH, WINDS AND SEAS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN  
SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE FRONT LINGERS NEAR THE WATERS  
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY BEFORE DROPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ONCE  
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WINDS BECOME EAST AND INCREASE  
SLIGHTLY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS GENERALLY 2  
TO 3 FEET AND WAVES 1 TO 2 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
AS OF 930 PM EDT TUESDAY...  
 
A RECORD HIGH WAS TIED THIS AFTERNOON AT NORFOLK (101 DEGREES).  
EARLY MORNING LOWS HAD TEMPORARILY BEEN ABOVE PREVIOUS RECORD  
HIGH MINS AT MOST SITES, BUT THE RAIN THIS EVENING HAS DROPPED  
THE TEMPERATURES AND SOME OF THESE MAY NOT STAND.  
 
* SITE RECORD HIGH RECORD HIGH MIN  
 
* RIC: 103 (1944) 74 (2015)  
* ORF: 101 (2018/1944) 77 (2017)  
* SBY: 96 (1993) 74 (2017)  
* ECG: 100 (1944) 78 (2017)  
 

 
   
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...LKB  
NEAR TERM...LKB  
SHORT TERM...MRD  
LONG TERM...AJB  
AVIATION...ESS/MRD  
MARINE...AJB  
CLIMATE...AKQ  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab VA Page
The Nexlab NC Page
The Nexlab MD Page Main Text Page