157  
FXUS61 KAKQ 240053  
AFDAKQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
753 PM EST THU NOV 23 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW  
PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY THROUGH  
SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE  
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK  
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
 
 
LATEST WX ANALYSIS REVEALS BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  
EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST INTO THE NRN MID ATLC  
REGION. ALOFT, A TROUGH AXIS WAS IN PLACE FROM THE ERN GREAT  
LAKES SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. TO THE SOUTH, A WEAK  
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NE OVER CENTRAL FL.  
 
ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GRIDS ON THIS THANKSGIVING  
EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH  
THE OVERNIGHT, KEEPING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE  
OVER FL SHUNTED OFF TO OUR SSE, ALTHOUGH WE'LL CONTINUE TO SEE  
SOME SCT-BKN CIRRUS OVER SE SECTIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.  
ADJUSTED LOWS DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE  
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S INLAND. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL RANGE FM  
THE LOW-MID 20S FAR NW TO NEAR 30 MOST AREAS (LOWER TO MID 30S  
OVER COASTAL SE VA AND NE NC).  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
LATEST GFS/NAM/ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH ENOUGH NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ENERGY  
PASSING BY TO OUR NE FRI MORNING/AFTN TO KEEP SFC LOW PRESSURE  
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC COASTS AND  
SSE OF THE LOCAL AREA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE MORE OR LESS TO STAY  
ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION THRU FRI, GRADUALLY SHIFTING OFF THE  
MID ATLC COAST FRI EVENING/NIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AGAIN DEPICT  
FAIRLY LIMITED/SHALLOW MIXING FOR FRI, SO EVEN WITH SIGNIFICANT  
RISES IN 850 MB TEMPS, ACTUAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AT THE SFC WILL  
NOT WARM ALL THAT MUCH, MAINLY INTO THE MID 50S. MOSTLY SUNNY,  
EXCEPT FOR SOME INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE FAR SE.  
 
NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO AND THRU THE GREAT LAKES FRI  
NIGHT/SAT. STILL LOOKS LIKE BULK OF MOISTURE FROM LOW PRESSURE  
OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC COASTS STAYS WELL ESE AND OFFSHORE, AS  
IT LIFTS ENE. NOT QUITE AS COLD FRI NIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY  
RANGING FM THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40. SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES  
FROM THE WEST LATE FRI NIGHT INTO MIDDAY SAT, THEN CROSSES THE  
AREA LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. A SW FLOW TO DEVELOP AND WILL SEE  
A MILDER DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 N TO THE MID 60S SE. CLOUDS  
WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTN, AND BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS  
THE NW. SFC COLD FRONT AND A LAGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT TO  
CROSS THE REGION SAT EVENING AND PUSH OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT. SYSTEM  
REMAINS MOISTURE STARVED, BUT WILL CARRY 20% POPS OVER THE N/NE,  
GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE FORCING THAN THE ECMWF. LOWS SAT NIGHT  
RANGING FM THE MID 30S NW TO THE LOWER 40S SE VA AND NE NC.  
MOSTLY SUNNY AND TURNING COOLER SUN, AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE  
RETURNS FM THE W. HIGHS MAINLY 50-55.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY DEPARTING EAST COAST TROUGH,  
AND BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES SLIDING EAST THROUGH  
MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO TO START THE  
PERIOD, BUT WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WARMING BACK INTO THE  
60S FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.  
 
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH LOW CHANCE POPS BY  
THURSDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM PUSHES EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST WED NIGHT/THU.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTN INTO FRI AFTN WITH JUST SOME  
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS THRU THE PERIOD, ESPLY AT PHF/ORF/ECG. NORTH  
WINDS 5-7 KT EARLY THIS AFTN, WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE BY  
EARLY THIS EVENING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN VFR  
CONDITIONS INTO SAT. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT FROM THE SSW  
SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, AND TURN TO THE NW FOR SAT NIGHT AND  
SUN, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FROM THE WNW. SKY MAY  
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY SAT AFTN/EVENING, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS  
POSSIBLE, BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT, AND THEN  
GRADUALLY SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY. MEANWHILE,  
LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS AREA OF  
LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT  
INTO SATURDAY, AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW BY  
SATURDAY. THE WIND WILL BE NORTHERLY AOB 10KT FOR MUCH OF THE  
MARINE AREA TONIGHT, BUT WILL BECOME NE 10-15KT S OF CAPE HENRY  
LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NE THEN E FRIDAY,  
WITH SPEEDS AOB 10KT, BEFORE BECOMING SW 10-15KT LATE FRIDAY  
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS  
REMAIN 3-4FT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THEN SUBSIDE TO 2-3FT  
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION  
SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SUBSEQUENT CAA SURGE LATE SATURDAY  
NIGHT INTO MIDDAY SUNDAY WITH A NW WIND OF 15-25KT. SEAS BUILD  
TO 4-6FT, WITH 3-4FT WAVES IN THE BAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS  
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST  
TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...TMG  
NEAR TERM...MAM/TMG  
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG  
LONG TERM...MAM  
AVIATION...TMG  
MARINE...AJZ  
 
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