006
FXUS61 KAKQ 261947
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
347 PM EDT FRI APR 26 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
TONIGHT, MOVING SOUTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP FROM TUESDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
AS OF 345 PM EDT FRIDAY...
LATE THIS AFTN, SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NEW
ENGLAND. THE HIGH WAS PROVIDING A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND
COOL TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM THE UPPER
50S TO THE UPPER 60S. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO JUST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT, ALLOWING A WEAK WARM FRONT TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS, ESPLY LATE TONIGHT INTO
SAT MORNING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER COULD OCCUR TOWARD MORNING IN
OUR EXTRM WNW COUNTIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE THROUGH THE
40S TO NEAR 50.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 345 PM EDT FRIDAY...
THAT WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS OUR EXTRM NRN COUNTIES SAT
INTO SAT EVENING, WHILE THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTH TO OFF THE
NRN MID ATLC COAST. ALSO, UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE WARM FRONT COULD TRIGGER
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE EXTRM NRN COUNTIES. BUT OTHERWISE,
EXPECT A PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY ON SAT WITH HIGHS
RANGING THROUGH THE 60S TO NEAR 70. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SAT
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
UPPER RIDGE THEN STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION FOR SUN AFTN
THROUGH MON, RESULTING IN INCREASINGLY WARMER TEMPS FOR SUN AND
MON. THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING SOUTH FROM OFF
THE MID ATLC COAST TO OFF THE SE COAST. UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY, HIGH TEMPS ON SUN WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S. UNDER A SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY SKY ON MON, HIGHS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S, BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME UPPER
80S INLAND/PIEDMONT OF VA.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 345 PM EDT FRIDAY...
THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, BECOMING LESS
AMPLIFIED BY MIDWEEK, BUT LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEK REGARDLESS
WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S TUE, IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WED AND THU. NEXT WEEK
WILL NOT ONLY "FEEL" SUMMER-LIKE DUE TO WARM TEMPS, BUT ALSO IN
THE SENSE THAT AN UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPS FROM TUE-FRI WITH
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER, GLOBAL MODELS
DISAGREE WITH TIMING FOR EACH OF THESE SUBTLE FEATURES. AS SUCH,
HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS, MAINLY FOR
AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS TUE THROUGH THU. THE BEST CHANCE
WILL LIKELY BE FRI AFTN/EVENING (30-40% POPS), AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WNW. HIGHS ALSO LOOK TO BE A TOUCH COOLER
ON FRI (MID 70S TO LOWER 80S).
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 215 PM EDT FRIDAY...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES FROM THIS
AFTN INTO SAT AFTN. WINDS WILL BE E OR SE 5-15 KT THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KT INTO THIS EVENING. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER COULD OCCUR AT RIC AND SBY SAT AFTN INTO EARLY
SAT EVENING, DUE TO A WEAK WARM FRONT.
OUTLOOK: DRY/VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS FROM
SAT NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MON.
MARINE
AS OF 245 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCAS CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. SCAS IN FOR THE COASTAL WATERS N OF
CAPE CHARLES LIGHT HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.
-SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER EASTERN CANADA/THE NE
CONUS THIS AFTERNOON AND HAS BEEN BUILDING TOWARD LOCAL WATERS.
ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUE WITH LATEST OBS SHOWING 10-15KT. BUOY OBS ARE
SHOWING A DOWNWARD TREND IN SEAS, BUT ONSHORE FLOW IS MAKING THIS
IMPROVEMENT SLOW. SEAS N OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT HAVE CONSISTENTLY
BEEN UNDER 5FT FOR SEVERAL HOURS, SO HAVE CANCELLED THE SCA FOR
THOSE ZONES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUOY OBS AND TAKE DOWN SCAS AS
APPROPRIATE. ONSHORE WINDS OF 10-15KT CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY PUSHED OFFSHORE. LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE AND GETS
PUSHED S. WITH THIS MOVEMENT, WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY (STILL AT 10-
15KT) SUN THROUGH TUES. DURING THIS PERIOD, SEAS WILL BE 3-4FT AND
WAVES 1-2FT.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ634-656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...RMM/TMG
LONG TERM...RMM/TMG
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AM
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