183  
FXUS61 KAKQ 220026  
AFDAKQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
726 PM EST WED FEB 21 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT.  
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY, THEN  
LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
 
 
LATEST MSAS HAS THE SFC HIGH OFF THE SERN COAST WITH THE COLD FRONT  
APPROACHING THE MTS. SCT SHWRS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAIN WEST OF  
THE LOCAL AREA LATE THIS AFTRN. DATA SHOWS A DRY AND WARM EVENING  
AHEAD AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE OFFSHORE  
HIGH. SHWRS ASSTD WITH THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER  
04Z WITH THE ACTUAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO BE ACROSS AKQ'S NORTHERN  
MOST ZONES BY 12Z THURS. WILL KEEP LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE NRN HALF  
OF THE FA AFTER MIDNITE, DRY ACROSS THE SOUTH. AIRMASS REMAINS MIXED  
TONIGHT SO WILL LIMIT ANY MARINE FOG TO THE COASTAL WATERS FOR NOW.  
LOWS IN THE UPR 40S-LWR 50S ERN SHORE AREAS, MID 50S-LWR 60S WEST OF  
THE BAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR THURS AS THE POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY WILL  
DETERMINE THE TEMP, PCPN TYPE AND CHCS. DATA INDICATES THE BOUNDARY  
SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH INTO CENTRAL VA BY 18Z THEN STALLS ACROSS SRN VA  
BY 00Z FRI. MOISTURE FIELDS SHOW BEST SUPPORT FOR MEASURABLE PCPN  
WILL BE NORTH OF THE BNDRY WHERE PCPN TYPE WILL LIKELY CHANGE FROM  
SHWRS TO A STRATIFORMED LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE CAD SCENARIO. LOOK FOR  
TEMPS TO REMAIN STDY OR SLOWLY FALL THRU THE DAY NORTH OF IT WHILE  
IT REMAINS UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S SOUTH. COULD SEE  
A 30 DEGREE RANGE IN TEMPS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.  
 
COOLER THURS NIGHT WITH LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE/FOG ACROSS THE NORTH DUE  
TO A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. LOWS 40-45 NORTH, 45-50 SOUTH. KEPT CHC  
SHOWERS GOING FRI AS FRONT SLIPS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. HIGHS  
IN THE LWR 50S NORTH TO LWR 60S SOUTH. HIGHS LOW-MID 50S NORTH, UPR  
60S-LWR 70S SOUTH.  
 
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH LEAVING THE LOCAL AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR FRI  
NIGHT ALONG WITH CHCS FOR MORE FOG. LOWS MID 40S ERN SHORE TO MID-  
UPR 50S SOUTH. WARM AGAIN SAT WITH CHC FOR SHWRS. HIGHS 60-65 ERN  
SHORE TO THE MID-UPR 70S SOUTH.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A MILD YET WET DAY WITH THE SURFACE  
CYCLONE STAYING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT  
MOVING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE  
NORTH OF I-64 WHERE THE BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED.  
HOWEVER, THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA GIVEN THAT  
IT WILL BECOME NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW ALOFT. CANADIAN  
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A  
LINGERING SHOWER MAY PERSIST ACROSS NC ON MONDAY, IT WILL MOST  
LIKELY BE DRY MONDAY-TUESDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY,  
ALLOWING RETURN S-SW FLOW TO DEVELOP. AN APPROACHING FRONT WED  
AFTERNOON MAY ALLOW FOR SHOWERS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INTO WED  
NIGHT, BUT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND HAVE OPTED TO KEEP OUT OF  
THE FORECAST.  
 
SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH S-SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE STRONG  
WARM FRONT. HOWEVER, CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS IN  
THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S DESPITE THE +12C 850MB TEMPS. TEMPS CLOSER  
TO NORMAL MONDAY-WEDNESDAY, BUT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED AS THE  
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL SITES. A  
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH  
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRATUS TO FIRST DEVELOP  
ACROSS THE NORTH AND THEN SPREAD SOUTH AS THE FRONT SAGS INTO  
THE REGION. AM EXPECTING MVFR/IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT PHF/RIC/SBY  
BY 09Z THURSDAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS, DRIZZLE, AND PATCHY FOG  
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH MUCH  
OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH  
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH DETERIORATING AVIATION  
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. LOCATIONS FURTHER SOUTH,  
INCLUDING ECG, MAY NOT SEE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS UNTIL AFTER  
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO  
REMAIN S-SW 5 TO 10 BECOMING VARIABLE OR LIGHT NORTHEAST BEHIND  
THE FRONT.  
 
OUTLOOK: EXPECTING A RETURN TO IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN/FOG  
IN MOIST ONSHORE FLOW THU NIGHT/FRI BEHIND THIS FEATURE. FRONT  
SLIPS BACK NORTH OF THE AREA ON LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A  
SECOND, STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY  
NIGHT, WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE  
DURING THIS PERIOD.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SOUTH FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE  
GUSTY AHEAD OF THE UPCOMING COLD FRONT. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS TO 20KT  
AT TIMES TONIGHT IN THE BAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG  
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY, BUT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE  
AREA OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. WILL SEE NORTH WINDS INCREASE TO 15-  
20KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 15KT IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY LATE  
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE FRONT STARTS MOVING BACK  
NORTH BY FRIDAY. MAY BRIEFLY SEE SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR  
NORTHERN WATERS LATE THU INTO THURSDAY EVENING, BUT IT IS TOO  
MARGINAL FOR ISSUANCE RIGHT NOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE  
AGAIN FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE  
WATERS SUNDAY WITH INCREASING NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE  
OVERHEAD BY MONDAY EVENING WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
RECORD HIGHS WERE RECORDED AT RICHMOND, SALISBURY, AND  
ELIZABETH CITY TODAY. THE RECORD HIGH WAS TIED AT NORFOLK.  
RECORD HIGH MINS WILL LIKELY BE CHALLENGED AT ALL CLIMATE SITES.  
 
* DATE: WED 2/21  
* LOCATION, OBSERVED, PREVIOUS RECORD  
 
RIC: 80, 75 (1930)  
ORF: 79, 79 (2014)  
SBY: 76, 75 (1943)  
ECG: 80, 77 (2014)  
 
* RECORD HIGH MINS FOR 2/21.  
 
RIC: 54 (1953)  
ORF: 58 (1953)  
SBY: 51 (1953)  
ECG: 61 (1939)  
 

 
   
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...MPR  
NEAR TERM...MPR  
SHORT TERM...MPR  
LONG TERM...AJB/MRD  
AVIATION...AJB  
MARINE...MRD  
CLIMATE...  
 
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