586
FXUS61 KAKQ 032125
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
425 PM EST TUE NOV 3 2009
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION BY EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
BEAUTIFUL ERY NOV DAY...COMPLETE W/ GENLY LGT WNDS/SKC AND TEMPS
IN THE M/U60S. WK CDFNT ENTERING FAR NW CTYS OF FA ATTM...WL CONT
TO PUSH ESE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FA THIS EVE (W/ NOTHING MR
THAN PTCHY MLVL CLDS AND A BRIEF PD OF GSTY WNW WNDS). AFT
MDNGT...SFC HI PRES FM THE OH VLY NOSES OVR THE MTNS AND INTO THE
FA. SFC WNDSPDS MAY STAY UP JUST ENUF TO PREVENT WDSPRD FROST (ERN
SXNS) - WNDS RMN GSTY IN THE MTNS THROUGH MID AFTN HRS. WL CONT
MENTION OF PTCHY FROST W OF I95 CORRIDOR. LCL POLICY STATES THAT
WE HAVE ENDED THE FROST/FREEZE ADSVRY/WRNG PROGRAM AS OF NOV 1ST
FOR PDMNT CTYS W OF I95. ALSO...BACK ARND OCT 20TH...MANY SPOTS
OVR THE PDMNT HAD LO TEMPS FM ARND 30 TO M30S. LO TEMPS TNGT FM
THE M/U30S INLAND...TO M/U40S CLS TO THE CST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/
SFC HI PRES OVR THE FA WED MRNG...QUIKLY SLIDES OFF THE CST IN THE
AFTN. NEXT S/W DIVING THROUGH LAKES/OH VLY ON WED...PASSES BY N OF
THE RGN WED NGT INTO THU MRNG. ASSOCIATED CDFNT APPROACHES THE
MTNS WED AFTN...THEN CRSS THE FA THROUGH ERY THU MRNG. NAM DRIER
W/ FNTL PASSAGE AS COMPARED TO GFS...MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE FACT
THAT M/ULVL SYS TO MV BY N OF FA. WL LEAN CLSR TO LWR (NAM) POP
GUID FM LT WED NGT INTO THU MRNG. AFT THAT...MOD/STRNG LLVL CAA
TAKES HOLD AS LO PRES STRENGTHENS E OF CAPE COD LT THU INTO FRI.
SFC HI PRES ARRIVES FOR FRI...PRVDG COOL/DRY CONDS.
LO TEMPS WED NGT IN THE U30S TO U40S...HI TEMPS THU M50S TO NR
60. LO TEMPS THU NGT FM THE M30S TO L40S...THEN HI TEMPS FRI IN
THE 50S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD KEEPING
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FAIRLY HIGH. EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO
LOOK DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA
FRI NIGHT AND SAT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP TO GRADUALLY MODERATE
TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER RIDGING SLOWLY
BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLC REGION FROM THE WEST DURING THIS
PERIOD...WITH THE 700-500 MB RIDGE AXIS NOT EXPECTED TO SHIFT E OF
OUR REGION UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE CONTINUED LARGE-SCALE
HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE REGIME...KEPT A DRY FCST GOING THROUGH NEXT
TUE.
MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS. FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES POSSIBLE
FRI NIGHT. THINK MODELS ARE TRYING TO WARM TEMPS A LITTLE
TOO QUICKLY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUN.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...EXPECT GRADUAL MODERATION TO OCCUR OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS TOWARD THE SE ATLC COAST. AFTER A
CHILLY START (AT LEAST 30-35 INLAND)...HIGHS ON SAT TO REBOUND TO
60-65. LITTLE...IF ANY...FROST THREAT EARLY SUN AM (MIN TEMPS FM UPR
LWR/MID 40S)...WHILE HIGHS SUN SHOULD BOOST INTO THE MID-UPR 60S
AWAY FROM THE COAST. MON AND TUE LOOK EVEN WARMER WITH 65-70
AREA-WIDE. NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE
SOMETIME WED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN STORE AS VFR CONDS WL CONT THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD. WEAK COLD FNT WL MV THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS AFTN
BRINGING A FEW HI CLDS WITH IT. NORTHERLY WNDS AT ORF/ECG AFTER
04Z/WED...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT.
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...OTHER THAN THE STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS
EARLY WED...THE PERIOD LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN WITH VFR
CONDITIONS/MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTH BRIEFLY WED
NGT ALONG W/ SOME MID LVL CLOUDINESS...THEN BACK TO A WNW FLOW
THU. STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED ALL SITES ON FRI. WNDS DIMINISH SAT
AS HI PRES BECOMES CENTERED OVER VA/NC WITH DRY CONDS CONT THROUGH SUN.
MARINE
LATEST OBS AND STLT LOOPS SHOW DRY CD FRONT ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH
THE MID ATLC STATES LATE THIS AFTN. BEHIND THE FRONT...QUICK COLD
(NRLY) SURGE WILL BE UNDER WAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE MID
ATLC WATERS THIS EVENING. DEGREE OF LLVL CAA IS RELATIVELY
WEAK/SHALLOW AND SHORT-LIVED (MAINLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WED
MORNING). LATEST RUC/NAM/LCL WRF TRENDS SHOW 925-900 MB WINDS A
BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS (I.E. CLOSER TO 25 KTS THAN 30
KTS)...THUS EXPECT AT MOST OCNL GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS. SEAS OVER THE
CSTL WATERS ARE ALREADY AT SCA CRITERIA EVEN BEFORE THE NRLY SURGE
ARRIVES...THANKS TO THE LINGERING 12-14 SEC EASTERLY SWELLS.
WED...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W...WINDS SUBSIDE BY
LATER MORNING SO WILL END THE SCA HEADLINES FOR ALL ZONES BY NOON
(EXCEPT FOR NC CSTL WATERS WHERE SEAS WILL LIKELY LINGER NEAR 5 FT
THROUGH THE AFTN).
WINDS/SEAS DIMINISH ALL ZONES BY WED EVENING INTO THU...BUT THEN A
STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE W OF THE MTNS WILL COMBINE W/ A
STRENGTHENING LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO PRODUCE AT LEAST
STRONG SCA CONDITIONS BY THU NGT INTO FRI MORNING...WITH THE
CHANCE FOR GALES BECOMING MORE LIKELY WITH THE SUCCESSIVE MODEL
RUNS/GUIDANCE SINCE YDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF
INCREASINGS WINDS/WAVES IN THE GRIDDED FCSTS...AS LATER SHIFTS WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO HOIST GALE WARNINGS FOR THU NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING
SHOULD THE TRENDS CONTINUE.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ632.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
654-656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ658.
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...BKH
AVIATION...AM
MARINE...BKH
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