544  
FXUS61 KAKQ 290731  
AFDAKQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
331 AM EDT MON MAY 29 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER NEAR THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA  
BORDER TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON  
MEMORIAL DAY AND STALLS NORTH OF THE REGION INTO TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
 
 
CURRENT ANALYSIS INDICATING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT  
LAKES, EXTENDING SE INTO THE LOCAL AREA WITH SOME WEAK SURFACE  
LOW PRESSURE REFLECTION ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHEAST VA AND  
NORTHEAST NC. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT HAS PUSHED WELL OFFSHORE  
OVER PAST FEW HRS AND AIRMASS IS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE  
(GREATER INSTABILITY RESIDES ACROSS SOUTHERN NC AND SC). WHILE  
POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED A LITTLE, TO LIKELY THROUGH AROUND 02Z  
ACROSS THE NW WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH CHANCE (40-50%) INTO  
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHSIDE VA, THE THREAT FOR ANY STRONG TSTMS  
APPEARS VERY UNLIKELY NOW. MAY SEE A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS THIS  
EVENING BUT DECIDED TO UPDATE THE HWO TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF  
STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS. NEAR TERM MODELS AND HRRR REFLECTIVITY SUGGEST  
THE SHOWERS DIMINISH IN COVERAGE LATER TONIGHT WITH JUST  
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND GENLY DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. LOW  
LEVELS ARE ALREADY RATHER SATURATED AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT  
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PATCHY FG AND/OR LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT AS  
WELL. LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS MON MORNING...THEN  
CONTINUE E MON AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRYING OVER  
MOST OF THE AREA...W/ THE INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTING SE  
INTO FAR SE VA-NE NC...WHERE ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ARE  
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. PARTLY SUNNY ON MEMORIAL DAY  
WITH HIGHS IN THE L-M80S N TO THE M-U80S S (70S ALONG THE  
ATLANTIC BEACHES OF THE EASTERN SHORE).  
 
12Z/28 GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE COLD FRONT BECOMES  
ALIGNED PARALLEL TO WSW FLOW ALOFT...STALLING IMMEDIATELY N OF  
THE REGION TO PERHAPS PUSHING INTO THE MD ERN SHORE. THE CHC FOR  
AFTN/EVENING SHRAS/TSTMS WILL DIMINISH TUE...THOUGH WILL  
CONTINUE W/ 20-40% POPS IN FAR SRN AND SE VA/NE NC. HIGHS  
TUE FROM THE U70S-L80S AT THE COAST TO THE M80S INLAND...AFTER  
MORNING LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S.  
 
LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS TUE NIGHT-WED. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH  
TO SHARPEN INTO THE ERN CONUS...THOUGH A STRONG ENOUGH TRIGGER  
FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT (ESP WED) ILL-DEFINED.  
MAINTAINING POPS (15-25%) IN FAR SE VA-NE NC...MAINLY WED  
AFTERNOON. LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE 60S. HIGHS WED IN THE U70S-  
L80S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL START OFF MAINLY  
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY. THE  
HIGH WILL MERGE WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THIS WILL  
PROMOTE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AND AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE. A  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID  
ATLANTIC STATES AND HELP TO TRIGGER SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 80 TO 85 BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER AT  
THE BEACHES. LOWS OF 60 TO 65 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS WARM TO  
THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
THE CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST,  
WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PIEDMONT.  
STRATUS AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH  
RIC/SBY/ECG EXPERIENCING LIFR CONDITIONS, WITH PERIODIC IFR  
STRATUS AT PHF/ORF. IFR/LIFR STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD PREVAIL  
THROUGH 12Z, AND POTENTIALLY THROUGH 15Z AT SBY. DRIER  
CONDITIONS ARRIVE FROM THE WSW AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE  
NE TODAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF MAINLY SEA/BAY-BREEZE  
SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTN. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFF THE NC OUTER  
BANKS LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING A CHC OF SHOWERS AND  
EMBEDDED TSTMS TO SE VA/NE NC. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN  
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHY FOG OR  
STRATUS IS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
LATE THIS AFTN, WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS NEAR THE SE VA/NE NC  
BORDER. THAT LOW WILL MOVE ENE AND OUT TO SEA TONIGHT THRU MON.  
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACRS THE AREA DURING MON, THEN  
WASHES OUT OVER THE CAROLINAS DURING TUE. ANOTHER WEAK COLD  
FRONT SLIDES ACRS THE REGION TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING, WITH  
YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THRU THE WATERS WED NIGHT. HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS THEN OUT TO SEA THU INTO  
FRI. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU THE  
PERIOD. VARIABLE DIRECTION WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS, WITH  
WAVES 1 TO 2 FT AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.  
 

 
   
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB  
NEAR TERM...LKB  
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB  
LONG TERM...LSA  
AVIATION...AJZ  
MARINE...TMG  
 
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