424  
FNUS73 KGID 091147  
FWSGID  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR KIRWIN4 RX...USFWS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE  
647 AM CDT TUE MAY 9 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 CDT ON MAY 09.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
A WEAK COOL FRONT MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN KANSAS  
OVERNIGHT...AND IT WAS LOCATED NEAR I-70 AT 6 AM. THIS FRONT IS  
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH  
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT NE WINDS.  
WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE E LATER THIS MORNING...AND  
EVENTUALLY TO THE SE THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN  
NEARLY STATIONARY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.  
 
SKIES WILL AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY. SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR MIXING  
HEIGHTS TO RISE TO NEAR 6000 FT THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR GOOD  
VENTING AND DISPERSAL OF THE SMOKE. HOWEVER...UNTIL MIXING REALLY  
DEVELOPS BY MIDDAY...SMOKE DISPERSAL COULD BE LIMITED THIS MORNING.  
 
MOST OF TODAY WILL BE DRY...BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
DEVELOP A LITTLE WEST OF THE BURN SITE AFTER 4 PM...AND COULD BE  
AT OR NEAR THE BURN SITE BY 6 PM. IF THIS OCCURS...AN ABRUPT WIND  
SHIFT TO THE W OR NW WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH A SIGNIFICANT  
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS. SO BE SURE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY  
AND CLOSELY WATCH THE WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS  
EVENING.  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 79.  
MIN HUMIDITY........52 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5400-5700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 3 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 13  
TO 16 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (CDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM  
SKY (%).........67 68 68 66 64 63 66 69 73 74 76  
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH CHC  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH CHC  
TEMP............61 65 68 71 73 75 77 78 79 79 78  
RH..............84 73 68 61 59 55 54 52 52 52 54  
20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE E E E SE SE SE SE SE SE  
20 FT WIND SPD..8 8 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 8  
20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 15 15 15 10 10 10 10 15  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.8 1.5 2.2 3.1 4.1 4.9 5.4 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.5  
TRANSP WIND DIR.E E SE SE SE SE SE S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.3 3 5 7 10 13 14 15 15 16 16  
HAINES INDEX....3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL EARLY MORNING,  
THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61.  
MAX HUMIDITY........90 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500-4900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200-1900 FT AGL  
EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 7 TO 16 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE  
GROWTH.  
 
TIME (CDT) 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM  
SKY (%).........78 76 75 74 74 73 73 71 69 66 69 71  
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH CHC  
TEMP............77 74 71 69 67 66 65 64 63 62 62 61  
RH..............56 62 68 73 78 81 84 87 87 90 87 90  
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE E SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE  
20 FT WIND SPD..8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.15 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10  
MIX HGT (KFT)...4.9 3.5 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW W NW NW N N N N NE NE NE  
TRANSP WIND SPD.16 14 12 9 8 7 7 8 9 10 12 12  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
   
WEDNESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76.  
MIN HUMIDITY........55 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 9 MPH. GUSTY AND  
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......900-2600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2500-3900 FT AGL  
LATE IN THE MORNING.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 7 TO 15 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE  
GROWTH.  
 
TIME (CDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM  
SKY (%).........74 75 78 79 79 79 79 76 68 64 71 84  
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC  
TEMP............61 63 65 68 70 72 73 74 75 76 76 72  
RH..............87 90 81 76 71 66 64 59 56 56 55 61  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S SE E E NE  
20 FT WIND SPD..3 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9  
20 FT WIND GUST.5 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 15  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.9 1.1 1.5 2.0 2.6 3.3 3.7 3.9 3.8 3.5 3.1 2.5  
TRANSP WIND DIR.NE NE E E E E E E NE NE NE NE  
TRANSP WIND SPD.12 10 8 7 8 9 10 9 8 8 10 15  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
 

 
FORECASTER...KELLEY  
REQUESTED BY...JEFF DUNLAP  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1708589.3/GID  
 
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