410  
FNUS73 KGID 250943  
FWSGID  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR COZAD HOUSE BURN...DAWSON COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE  
443 AM CDT SUN JUN 25 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0600 CDT ON JUNE 25.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
THE BIG ISSUE RELATING TO FIRE WEATHER WILL CENTER AROUND THE VERY  
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND. EXPECT THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL FOR THE MOST  
PART REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 MPH THROUGH MONDAY. AT TIMES THE WIND WILL  
BE FLAT OUT CALM GIVEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE  
FORECAST AREA. IT IS IMPORTANT TO REALIZE THAT WHEN THE WIND IS THIS  
LIGHT IT WILL BE A BIT SHIFTY WITH LIGHT BREEZES RANDOMLY COMING OUT  
OF DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS.  
 
FOR THE COZAD AREA THE WIND WILL BE MORE PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE  
NORTH OR EAST THIS MORNING, AND THEN EAST OR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON,  
AND THEN SOUTH OR WEST TONIGHT. BUT AGAIN GIVEN THAT THE WIND IS  
SO LIGHT IT WILL LIKELY BE RATHER VARIABLE AND COULD COME FROM  
ABOUT ANY DIRECTION FROM TIME TO TIME. CAN NOT RULE OUT A VERY  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER TODAY OR TONIGHT, BUT IN THE  
SMALL CHANCE THAT IT DOES RAIN IT WOULD LIKELY BE SHORT IN  
DURATION AND HARDLY MEASURE IF AT ALL.  
 
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN  
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN  
THE AFTERNOON.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75 AT 4PM.  
MIN HUMIDITY........37 PERCENT AT 4PM.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE  
NORTH AND EAST THIS MORNING, AND THEN EAST AND SOUTH THIS  
AFTERNOON. WIND COULD BE STRONGER AND MORE VARIABLE IN AND AROUND  
ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL, WIND WILL BE SOMEWHAT  
VARIABLE.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL AT 6AM INCREASING TO 2500 FT AGL  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....VARIABLE.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (CDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM  
SKY (%).........66 65 64 63 59 55 51 46 41 36 35 33  
WEATHER COV..... ISO ISO ISO SCH  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........ ISO  
TEMP............49 52 57 62 66 69 71 72 73 74 75 75  
RH..............74 69 59 52 45 40 38 38 37 37 37 37  
20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE E E E SE SE SE SE S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7  
20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 10 10 10  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.9 2.2 2.5  
TRANSP WIND DIR.NE NE NE NE NE E SE SE SE SE SE S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.7 6 6 6 7 9 10 10 10 9 8 8  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 54.  
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING  
BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-2500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400-900 FT AGL  
IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 13 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (CDT) 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM  
SKY (%).........32 34 35 37 40 42 45 51 56 62 62 62  
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO  
TEMP............74 71 67 64 61 60 59 58 58 56 55 54  
RH..............40 46 56 65 72 78 80 83 86 93 96 100  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S SW SW SW SW  
20 FT WIND SPD..7 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 3 3  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 5 5  
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.5 1.9 1.1 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.7 6 6 6 7 9 12 13 13 12 10 9  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
 

 
FORECASTER...WESELY  
REQUESTED BY...BRIAN WOLDT  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1711556.0/GID  
 
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