416  
FXUS63 KGID 201722  
AFDGID  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE  
1222 PM CDT MON AUG 20 2018  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT MON AUG 20 2018  
 
INITIAL FORECAST CONCERN IS ENDING THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE  
CWA TODAY.  
 
MUCH OF THE CWA HAS BENEFITED FROM SLOW SOAKING RAIN THE PAST 24  
HOURS. AS OF 2 AM, LIGHT RAIN STILL AFFECTING THE ENTIRE CWA  
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE AT ANY ONE TIME IS AROUND 20 PERCENT. HAVEN'T SEEN  
ANY LIGHTNING DETECTED IN THE CWA FOR SEVERAL HOURS SO JUST  
DEALING WITH SHOWERS. THE CULPRIT IN ALL THIS IS A LARGE UPPER LOW  
WHICH IS NOW LOCATED IN SE NEB AS NOTED IN THE GOES-16 WATER  
VAPOR IMAGERY. THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PULL EAST AND WHILE WE  
ARE STILL GETTING WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION, THE MAIN DEFORMATION  
ZONE LOOKS TO BE OVER NORTHERN IA/EASTERN NEB AT THIS TIME. AT THE  
SURFACE, A 1004 MB LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NW MISSOURI WITH A 1024  
MB HIGH IN WESTERN SDAK. THIS RESULTS IN AN 18 MB PRESSURE  
GRADIENT ACROSS NEB AT PRESENT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE  
MID 60S IN SE NEB TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST. ALL IN ALL A  
DYNAMIC SYSTEM AND NOT VERY COMMON FOR AUGUST.  
 
FIRST ISSUE IS ENDING RAIN OVER THE CWA TODAY. DRIER AIR, AS NOTED  
ON THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY, CAN BE SEEN PROGRESSING  
EASTWARD AND HAS ALREADY PUSHED THROUGH THE NEB PANHANDLE. AND  
WHILE SHOWERS CAN STILL BE NOTED ON RADAR IN THE WESTERN PART OF  
THE CWA, IT IS ALSO APPARENT THAT THE BACK EDGE IS SLOWLY ERODING.  
GIVEN THESE TRENDS, BELIEVE THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE  
AROUND HIGHWAY 281 AROUND 7 OR 8 AM, AND THEN TOTALLY EAST OF THE  
CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  
 
SECOND ISSUE FOR TODAY INVOLVES THE WIND. AS NOTED ABOVE,  
THERE IS A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA AND WINDS HAVE  
ALREADY PICKED UP OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA WITH SEVERAL  
SITES GUSTING OVER 20 KT. DUE TO THE SLOW NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM,  
EXPECT WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO PERSIST  
UNTIL SUNSET, ALTHOUGH THOSE IN THE WESTERN CWA MIGHT SEE THEM  
DIMINISH A BIT BY LATE AFTERNOON. SO WITH CLOUDY SKIES, COOLER  
TEMPS, AND STRONG WINDS, PREPARE FOR A RAW DAY BY AUGUST STANDARDS.  
QUIET WEATHER IS THEN ANTICIPATED TONIGHT WITH NO MAJOR CONCERNS.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT MON AUG 20 2018  
 
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK ALTHOUGH  
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH. NOT  
ALWAYS EASY TO TIME THESE, BUT BOTH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC  
SHOW ONE WAVE AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TUE NIGHT  
INTO WED, AND THEN A MORE IMPRESSIVE WAVE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS ON THUR NIGHT. WILL KEEP POPS GOING FOR THOSE  
TIME PERIODS AND LATER SHIFTS CAN WATCH FOR CONSISTENCY ESPECIALLY  
WITH THE THUR NIGHT SYSTEM.  
 
THE WARMING TREND NOTED IN THE LAST FEW DISCUSSIONS STILL SEEMS  
REASONABLE AS HEIGHTS BUILD A LITTLE IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE  
CONUS. TODAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH LOW/MID 70S FORECAST AS  
THE SYSTEM NOTED EARLIER PUSHES EAST. BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND  
EXPECTING MID TO UPPER 80S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT MON AUG 20 2018  
 
CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY LIFTING AND SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE  
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A SURFACE HIGH SHOULD KEEP WINDS  
LIGHT FROM THE NORTH DURING THE NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NE...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...EWALD  
LONG TERM...EWALD  
AVIATION...JCB  
 
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