195
FXUS63 KGID 041131
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
631 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
AVIATION
12Z TAF. PRIMARY CONCERN LIES WITH LOW VIS/CEILINGS THIS
MORNING...AND LINGERING STRATUS THROUGH THE DAY. LIFR CONDITIONS
HAVE BEEN THE STORY SINCE MIDNIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND AND VERY LIGHT WINDS. NOW THAT THE SFC FRONT HAS
SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH...NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE STARTED TO
INCREASE...HELPING THE VISIBILITIES OUT SOME BUT CURRENT CEILINGS
STILL REMAIN BELOW 500FT. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE CASE FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...GRADUALLY INCREASING VISIBILITIES BUT LOW CEILINGS.
EXPECTING THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS TO BE AN ISSUE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAYTIME HOURS WITH GENERALLY MVFR BASES...BEFORE LIFTING A BIT
THIS EVENING. NOW THAT THE FRONT HAS FINALLY SHIFTED TO THE
SOUTH...WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DURATION OF
THIS TAF PERIOD...INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON TO NEAR 15KTS AND
TAPERING OFF ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 325 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009/
DISCUSSION...THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE FOG THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH
A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE HAS CREATED AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING.
MOST SPOTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE 2 TO 3 MILE RANGE...HOWEVER
AT TIMES THERE HAVE BEEN LOCATIONS REPORTING LESS THAN ONE MILE.
WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTH AND INCREASE IN SPEED THIS MORNING
BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT UNTIL THAT HAPPENS AREAS OF FOG
WILL PERSIST.
THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE CHANCE OF A LINGERING SHOWER. THE MAIN
AREA OF RAIN THIS MORNING HAS PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA DUE TO A SOUTHWEST TURN IN THE LOW LEVEL JET. DO NOT
THINK THAT ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE A RETURN TO THE NORTH
THIS MORNING...WITH THE SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TAKING
THE RAIN CHANCES EVEN FARTHER SOUTH THIS MORNING. THE PRIMARY
RAIN CONCERN APPEARS TO RESIDE WITH AN H7 WAVE THAT THE 00Z NAM
AND GFS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY. THE 00Z NAM IS BASICALLY
DRY AS THIS FEATURE PASSES...HOWEVER THE 00Z GFS PAINTS LIGHT QPF
ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST 06Z NAM SUGGESTS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY CLIP AREAS
GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 92...AND WITH A FEW SHOWERS NOW MOVING
INTO FAR NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WILL GO AHEAD AN KEEP SMALL POP
IN THE FAR NORTH THIS MORNING.
IT WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY IN SOME SPOTS WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS BRINGING IN COOLER AIR. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE SLOW TO CLEAR
WITH THE 00Z NAM SHOWING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STAYING IN PLACE
MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE COULD BE SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS
WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE EAST
MAY STAY CLOUDY MOST OF THE DAY. WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
NORTH...TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH. TONIGHT SHOULD BE DRY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE REGIONS WEATHER. CLOUDS MAY STILL
LINGER IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT OVERALL
IT SHOULD BE A COOL AND QUIET EVENING. HAVE SHOWN LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NORTH...TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.
IT SHOULD BE WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH FEWER CLOUDS AND A GRADUAL TURN
TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE SURFACE HIGH EVENTUALLY SHIFTS TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN GRADUALLY MOVE EAST DURING
THE NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS SUGGESTS A FEW STORMS COULD MAKE IT INTO
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THE 00Z NAM IS DRY. THE 06Z
NAM NOW SUGGESTS A FEW STORMS COULD MAKE IT INTO WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...AND HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE SMALL POP FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND 06Z NAM.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
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