955  
FXUS63 KGID 022339  
AFDGID  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE  
639 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS, SOME SEVERE, WILL TRACK ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT (ESPECIALLY  
ALONG/NORTH OF HWY 6 AND INCREASING AFTER 8 PM). PRIMARY  
THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS (60-70MPH), LARGE HAIL (UP  
TO GOLF BALL).  
 
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 0.5-1" EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS  
EVENING- TUESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY  
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WHERE 2-4" ARE  
POSSIBLE. FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING IS IN EFFECT THIS  
EVENING (DAWSON, BUFFALO, SHERMAN, VALLEY, GREELEY COUNTIES)  
 
- SCATTERED-WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY  
ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS NOTICEABLY COOLER (LOWER TO MID 60S).  
 
- ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARDS, WITH CHANCES  
FOR PRECIPITATION MOST EVERY DAY, BUT WITH THE NEXT BETTER  
CHANCE (60-70%) BEING ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES STEADILY  
CLIMB BACK TOWARDS NORMAL (UPPER 70S/LOW 80S) BY THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2025  
 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...  
 
OUR PRIMARY CONCERN CENTERS AROUND THE LIKELY THREAT FOR SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND  
NORTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION, THE THUNDERSTORMS  
ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ARE LIKELY TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME LOCATION  
LEADING TO SOME LOCALIZED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4  
INCHES.  
 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO INITIALLY FORM OVER THE SANDHILLS  
NORTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 5-6 PM AND THEN TRACK  
SOUTHEAST INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AFTER 7 OR 8 PM. ADDITIONAL  
STORMS WILL FORM FURTHER WEST OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND  
WESTERN KANSAS. THESE STORMS WILL ACTUALLY TRACK EAST NORTHEAST  
AND EVENTUALLY INTERACT WITH THE MORE NORTHERN STORMS COMING OUT  
OF THE SANDHILLS. MOST OF OUR HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS  
INCLUDING THE HRRR ARE INDICATING THAT MOST OF THE STORMS THIS  
EVENING WILL QUICKLY BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINATE WITH GUST FRONTS  
RACING WELL AHEAD OF THE STORMS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WELL AHEAD  
OF THE LINES OF CONVECTION IS NOT GOOD FOR LONGEVITY AND THESE  
STORMS THAT WILL LIKELY BE INITIALLY SEVERE WILL HAVE A  
DIFFICULT TIME MAINTAINING SEVERITY FOR MORE THAN A FEW HOURS.  
LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE EARLIER STORMS AND THEN  
SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BECOME THE MAIN THREAT AS WE GO THROUGH  
THE LATER EVENING. BUT EVEN THE WINDS SHOULD START TO LOSE THEIR  
PUNCH ONCE THE OUTFLOWS BECOME TOO FAR REMOVED FROM THE  
THUNDERSTORMS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS MOST LIKELY NORTH OF HIGHWAY  
6 AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80 BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORMS GUST  
OUT. THE LONGER THESE STORMS CAN REMAIN BALANCED AND KEEP UP  
WITH THE GUST FRONT THEN THE LONGER THEY WILL SURVIVE AS THEY  
TRACK ACROSS THE AREA, BUT ONCE THAT OUTFLOW STARTS TO RACE  
AHEAD, THEN BE READY FOR THE STORMS TO START DECREASING IN  
INTENSITY.  
 
TUESDAY WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS...  
 
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND THE  
STRONG STORMS WILL REDEVELOP WELL SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST  
AREA. HOWEVER, LIGHTER GENERAL OFF AND ON AGAIN RAIN SHOWERS  
WILL BE LIKELY (80-90%) WELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR  
FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW  
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, BUT NOTHING SEVERE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY  
AND THE OVERALL PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD WORK SOUTHEAST  
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE AREA DRYING OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO  
SOUTHEAST. IT WILL BE NOTICABLY COOLER ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS  
ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH ALL OF THE MORNING RAIN AND  
THEN LINGERING CLOUDS.  
 
WEDNESDAY (MOST LIKELY DRY DAY)...  
 
WEDNESDAY IS THE DAY BETWEEN SHORT WAVES AND SHOULD BE DRY WITH  
THE WARMUP BEGINNING (HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S).  
 
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY (SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN / WARMER)  
 
THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS  
SLIDING THROUGH BRINGING AT LEAST SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT PROBABLY NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TONIGHT INTO  
TUESDAY. THE NEXT STRONGEST TROUGH WILL PROBABLY BE ON THURSDAY  
IF TRENDS HOLD (CURRENTLY 60-70% RAIN CHANCES). WE DO EXPECT A  
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS FOR MOST  
LOCATIONS BACK INTO THE 80S BY THE WEEKEND.  
 
SUNDAY AND MONDAY (NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS)...  
 
THE PATTERN SHIFTS TO AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED  
STATES AND A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WE WARM UP AND LARGELY  
DRY OUT A BIT WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2025  
 
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:  
 
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTH UNTIL AROUND 03Z WHEN WINDS  
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE  
NORTH BY 06Z AND WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH THE REST  
OF THE PERIOD BUT WILL DECREASE DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON  
HOURS. LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING AROUND 06Z/07Z AND  
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 17Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
EXPECTED BEGINNING AROUND 03Z/04Z. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS  
TO HOW LONG STORMS WILL LAST BUT MAY CONTINUE OFF AND ON UNTIL  
AROUND 15Z.  
 

 
   
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NE...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ039-040-046-060-061.  
KS...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...WESELY  
AVIATION...SCHULDT  
 
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