990
FXUS63 KGID 091136
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
536 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2010
AVIATION
12Z KGRI TAF. WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST AWAY
FROM AREA. WINDS WILL THEN DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET AND COULD EVEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE JUST BEFORE DAWN TOMORROW. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH A FEW LOW CLOUDS
AROUND THE AREA THIS MORNING. COULD SEE A BROKEN MVFR CEILING
BRIEFLY AT SOME POINT TODAY...BUT WILL JUST CALL FOR SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS IN THE TAF AS THAT WILL BE THE CASE FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 340 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2010/
DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER
WE/LL SEE ANY SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED THE CLOSED UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER THE NE/IA BORDER...CHURNING SOUTHEAST. MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE CIRCULATION WAS BRINGING SOME
LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE CWA. WINDS REMAIN STOUT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST IN THE ENHANCED
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF 1030+ MB SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THESE
BRISK WINDS COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING AROUND 10F HAVE
ALLOWED WIND CHILLS TO FALL INTO THE 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO RANGE.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MO VALLEY
TODAY...BEFORE EVENTUALLY PULLING MORE EASTWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FLURRIES/VERY LIGHT
SNOW TO THE NORTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEAST AND THEN PULLS EAST...CLOUD COVER WILL
DECREASE FORM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH FLURRY
ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN AS WELL. MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES LINGER INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON EAST OF A FULLERTON TO HEBRON LINE...BUT THESE
TOO WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE CWA BY NO LATER THAN MID-AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN...RELAXING
THE GRADIENT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
TO TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY. WINDS
WILL HOWEVER DROP OFF PRETTY QUICKLY BY SUNSET AS THE RIDGE
SETTLES IN. TEMPS EXPECTED TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT TODAY BUT REMAIN
WELL BELOW AVERAGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. WIND CHILLS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 BELOW RANGE THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE
IMPROVING. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE BRINGS LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...RESULTING IN GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL AIM FOR LOWS IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS NORTHEAST TO POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE. DESPITE THE
LIGHT WINDS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING...NOT EXPECTING FOG TO BE AN
ISSUE GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND LACK OF ANY REAL SNOW
MELT TODAY AS HIGHS DON/T SURPASS THE MID 20S. SREF PROBABILITIES
AND MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORT THIS...SO WILL FOREGO ANY FOG MENTION.
WILL SEE SOME ADDITIONAL MODERATION IN TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES EAST...GIVING WAY TO RETURN FLOW AND ATTENDANT
WAA. INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHALLOWER MIXING WILL NEGATE SOME OF THE
WARMING POTENTIAL...BUT SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S
NORTHEAST TO UPPER 20S SOUTHWEST. SPEAKING OF THE INCREASING
CLOUDS...MODELS HAVE BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING STRATUS IN
FROM WEST/SOUTHWEST TO EAST/NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
ON THE 280/285K SURFACES INCREASES. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF
INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THE BIGGER QUESTION
CONTINUES TO LIE WITH WHETHER THIS ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA WILL BE
ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT ANY LIGHT PRECIP. SOME OF THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY VERY LIGHT QPF TO VARYING DEGREES FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS ARE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE IN THIS REGARD...WITH THE GEM AND ECMWF MUCH LESS SO.
ANALYSIS OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
FZDZ MAINLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE TOO IFFY TO ADD JUST YET. THE LOW LEVELS DO MOISTEN UP
BENEATH DRY MID LEVELS...BUT THE EXTENT OF THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTENING IS STILL IN QUESTION. THE MOIST LAYER IS RATHER SHALLOW
AT TIMES AND NOT QUITE SHOWING THE EXTENT OF SATURATION OFTEN
PRESENT IN A DRIZZLE SCENARIO...SO CONFIDENCE WASN/T QUITE THERE
TO ADD FZDZ TO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS ARE CLEARLY REDUCED...BUT AGAIN NOT TO THE EXTENT THAT
OFTEN SHOWS UP IN THESE TYPES OF SCENARIOS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND STILL MAY VERY WELL NEED TO ADD TO THE FORECAST AS THE
TIME NEARS DEPENDING ON HOW MODEL TRENDS SHAKE OUT. THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY EVENING...A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIPPLING THROUGH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT MAY PRODUCE SOME BRIEF SATURATION ALOFT TO PRODUCE MORE
OF A FLURRY/VERY LIGHT SNOW SCENARIO...BUT MODELS ARE STILL QUITE
VARIABLE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE. WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING
ANY SMALL POPS OR FLURRY MENTION AT THIS POINT UNTIL A LITTLE
BETTER CONSISTENCY/CONFIDENCE DEVELOPS. SO IN SHORT...THERE COULD
BE A LITTLE VERY LIGHT PATCHY FZDZ OR FLURRY ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING...BUT IT STILL LOOKS A LITTLE IFFY AT
THIS JUNCTURE AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A BIG DEAL.
TEMPERATURE WISE...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES
INTO THURSDAY. INCREASED CLOUDS AND WAA WILL HELP KEEP LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
NIGHTS...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 30S. NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO FRIDAY AND BEYOND WITH THIS FORECAST.
OVERALL PRETTY QUIET CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO NOTABLE SYSTEMS TARGETING THE
REGION.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
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