532
FXUS63 KGID 211715
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1215 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CONDITIONS
WILL BE CLOUDY AND COOL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY PLACED THE UPPER LOW CENTER ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH LOBES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO REACH
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING AND TRANSLATE SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER TONIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH...OUR REGION WILL
SEE COLDER AIR ADVECTING SOUTH AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
TODAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE PROGGED IN THE MID/UPPER 50S IN OUR
NORTHERN ZONES AND IN THE UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTH...WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO BE REACHED THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH NOT WIDESPREAD...CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES THIS AFTN WITH BETTER CHCS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 IN NEB IN PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW/DYNAMICS
WHILE FARTHER SOUTH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRIER LLVLS. NORMAL
HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID 70S...AND WE WILL FALL SHORT
OF THIS TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FM NEAR 60F IN OUR NORTH TO NEAR
70F IN THE SOUTH.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW REACHES IOWA AND A WRAPAROUND
SHOWER/SPRINKLE COULD LINGER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN/NORTHEAST ZONES BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND HAVE WENT WITH SILENT POPS. CLOUD COVER AND
STEADY WINDS TONIGHT SHLD HOLD LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN ACROSS THE PLAINS
ON WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES TRYING TO CLIMB BACK TOWARDS NORMAL THURSDAY AS
A BIT MORE SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.
WEDNESDAY WILL STILL REMAIN FAIRLY COOL FOR THE END OF MAY...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.
AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY LATE THURSDAY...
EXPECT MOISTURE TO BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION AND FOR
INSTABILITY TO BUILD. THIS BUILDING INSTABILITY SHOULD MARK A
RETURN TO A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO
AT LEAST MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL...WITH GENERALLY 80S EXPECTED OVER
THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
WHILE THERE WILL BE ADEQUATE INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS
CONTINUES TO REMAIN OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH FORECAST SOUNDING
INDICATING THE CAP WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK WITH SEVERAL THOUSAND
JOULES OF CAPE TO WORK WITH. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...AT THIS POINT THE MAIN THREATS APPEAR TO BE GUSTY
THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. THE EUROPEAN
COMPUTER MODEL IS DEFINITELY A BIT MORE BULLISH WITH PRECIP THAN
THE 00Z GFS ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT BOUNDARY BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT EITHER WAY...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
AROUND BOTH DAYS...WITH THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE SOME BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL TOTALS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST UNTIL 02Z...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES WILL CONTINUE AT KGRI THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD...WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AN MVFR CEILING WILL BE
REALIZED STARTING THIS EVENING AND LASTING INTO THE MORNING HOURS
WEDNESDAY...THUS THE MVFR FORECAST 02Z ONWARD. THE SURFACE WIND
WILL REMAIN FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...SUSTAINED NEAR 19KTS AND GUSTING AROUND 27KTS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE DECREASING TO AROUND 12KTS
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT
EXPECTED AT KGRI THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...SAR
AVIATION...BRYANT
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