134  
FXUS63 KGID 231810  
AFDGID  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE  
110 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2018  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2018  
 
ALOFT: RAP ANALYSES AND 00Z RAOB DATA CONT TO DEPICT AN UNUSUAL  
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER N AMERICA WITH THE POLAR JET FAR TO THE N  
OVER CANADA AND A WEAK BRANCH OF WESTERLIES OVER THE SRN USA WITH  
A STREAM OF SLOW-MOVING LOWS AND TROFS IN THE WEAK FLOW IN  
BETWEEN. ONE SUCH TROF WAS OVERHEAD...MOVING THRU THE CNTRL/NRN  
PLNS AND ONE SUCH LOW WAS OVER MT. THE TROF WILL EXIT THE RGN THIS  
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE TONIGHT WHILE THE MT LOW  
DIGS INTO WY.  
 
SURFACE: A WEAK PRES PATTERN WAS OVER THE CNTRL PLNS. A WEAK LOW  
WAS OVER SD WITH A TROF EXTENDING S INTO CNTRL NEB AND NW KS. THIS  
TROF WILL DISSIPATE TODAY LEAVING THE WEAK PRES PATTERN. AN  
INVERTED TROF WILL FORM SUN...ARCING FROM OK-SD.  
 
OVERNIGHT PATCHY AREA OF -RA OCCURRED OVER S-CNTRL NEB E OF HWY  
183 WITH A COUPLE EMBEDDED TSTMS. THIS AREA HAS DECREASED MARKEDLY  
FROM 07Z-08Z.  
 
NOW THRU SUNRISE: THE BACK EDGE OF THIS DECREASING AREA OF RAIN  
WAS COLLOCATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROF AND IT SHOULD BE E OF THE  
CWA BY DAWN. CLDS WILL BE DECREASING AS WELL. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND  
LOW T/TD DEPRESSIONS...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL PROBABLY FORM.  
 
TODAY: VARIABLE BETWEEN M/SUNNY AND M/CLDY THIS AM. SHOULD SEE  
TRANSITION TO OR DEVELOPMENT OF EXTENSIVE STRATOCU LATE AM BUT  
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AFTER MIDDAY SHOULD RESULT IN M/SUNNY W AND  
S OF THE TRI-CITIES AND P/CLDY N AND E.  
 
CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHWR OR TSTM N AND E OF THE  
TRI-CITIES THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. TEMPS IN THE LOW  
80S WITH DWPTS IN THE MID 60S WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE AROUND 1500  
J/KG. WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 30 KT...CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN  
ISOLATED SVR TSTM.  
 
TONIGHT: ANY ISOLATED SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY N AND E OF THE TRI-  
CITIES WILL RAPIDLY DIE BY SUNSET. M/CLEAR TO START THEN  
INCREASING CLDS AS TSTM ACTIVITY FIRES WELL TO THE W. TSTMS COULD  
MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY W OF HWY 183. THIS IS DISCUSSED MORE  
BELOW...BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FCST  
LOCATION OF TSTMS.  
 
WITH 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE...EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 30  
KT... AND THE STRENGTH OF THE FORCING...IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE  
THESE TSTMS COULD BE SVR.  
 
BE SURE TO FOLLOW OUR LATEST FCSTS/POSTS TO SOCIAL MEDIA AND SPC  
OUTLOOKS. CHANGES AND REFINEMENTS TO THE FCST ARE LIKELY OVER THE  
NEXT 24 HRS.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2018  
 
ALOFT: THE WY LOW WILL SLOWLY INCH ALONG NEB/SD BORDER SUN-MON  
AND INTO SRN MN BY 12Z/TUE. A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF SWEEPING  
ACROSS CANADA WILL KICK THE LOW INTO THE GTLKS WED ESTABLISHING  
CONSOLIDATED ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN USA. THU-FRI A PATTERN CHG  
WILL OCCUR WITH A BROAD WRN TROF/ERN RIDGE DEVELOPING...WITH A HOT  
SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE ERN USA. THIS PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY AT  
TIMES BUT PERSIST INTO EARLY JUL.  
 
SURFACE: LOW PRES WILL FORM OVER OK SUN EVE AND CYCLONICALLY  
ROTATE THRU ERN KS/NEB INTO SD MON. VERY WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD  
OVER NEB TUE AS THIS LOW THEN HEADS FOR THE UPR MIDWEST. HIGH  
PRES OVER THE ATLC WILL TAKE OVER WED-FRI WITH RETURN FLOW OVER  
THE PLNS. THE TAIL END OF A COOL FRONT WILL DROP TO THE NEB/KS  
BORDER WED...THEN LIFT BACK N WAS A WARM FRONT THU BEFORE THE NEXT  
WEAK COOL FRONT ARRIVES FRI.  
 
TEMPS: SUN-MON ENJOY THE COMFORTABLE TEMPS...BUT THE HUMIDITY  
WILL BE CREEPING UP...ESPCLY FROM THE TRI-CITIES N AND E. THE  
CHANGE IN FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW SUMMERTIME HEAT TO RETURN TUE AND  
REMAIN THRU AT LEAST FRI. THE COOL FRONTS WILL BARELY PUT A DENT  
IN TEMPS. THEIR ONLY IMPACT WILL BE TO KEEP TEMPS FROM BEING AS  
HOT AS THEY MIGHT BE WITHOUT THEM. BOTTOM LINE IS TEMPS WILL STILL  
BE ABOVE 90F.  
 
PRECIP: A COMMA-SHAPED ARC OF SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE FORM SUN AM  
OVER WRN NEB/NW KS DUE TO THE STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE  
APPROACHING LOW. THERE IS TREMENDOUS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW PRECIP  
CHANCES EVOLVE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT DUE TO THE WILDLY VARYING MODEL  
QPFS. ONE THING SEEMS FAIRLY CERTAIN...THERE WILL BE MORE THAN ONE  
EPISODE OF HEAVY RAINFALL.  
 
WHAT HAPPENS TO THE SUN AM TSTM ACTIVITY WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT  
ROLE IN HOW ADDITIONAL TSTMS DEVELOP AND EVOLVE SUN AFTERNOON/EVE.  
DOES THE DAYTIME TSTM ACTIVITY DIMINISH THE SVR TSTM POTENTIAL IN  
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SUPPRESSING EFFECTS OF CLOUD COVER AND  
COOLER TEMPS? WHEREVER THIS CLUSTER OF TSTMS IS IN THE AFTERNOON  
...IT IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY AND BECOME SVR. PRESENT INDICATIONS  
ARE THAT THESE STORMS WILL SLIDE SE ACROSS KS AND THAT IS WHY THE  
SPC HAS AN ENH RISK OF SVR THERE. IF THIS OCCURS AS SOME MODELS  
DEPICT...IT REALLY CASTS DOUBT ON WHAT HAPPENS FURTHER N OVER NEB.  
ONE WOULD THINK THAT THE PERSISTENT QG FORCING/LIFT ASSOCIATED  
WITH THE LOW SHOULD INITIATE TSTMS THERE AS WELL...BUT HAVE SEEN  
MANY TIMES WHEN ONE BIG CLUSTER OF STORMS ROBS NEARBY AREAS WHICH  
SEE LITTLE OR NOTHING. STAY TUNED.  
 
PLEASE FOLLOW SPC OUTLOOKS FOR MORE DETAILS.  
 
QPF: THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE MUCH OF THE CWA WILL MEASURE AT  
LEAST 0.50-1.00". THERE IS A SMALLER CHANCE FOR NARROW SWATHS OF  
3-4" AND LOCALLY HIGHER IN A SMALL PORTION OF THE CWA.  
 
THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW AND POTENTIAL FOR REPEATED TSTM  
ACTIVITY COULD EVENTUALLY REQUIRE WE ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...  
ESPCLY FOR NUCKOLLS/THAYER/SMITH/JEWELL COUNTIES WHICH HAVE MOIST  
SOILS FROM THE 3-7" OF RAIN THAT FELL LAST TUE EVE. THESE COUNTIES  
WILL BE PARTICULARLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO QUICKER RUN-OFF.  
 
LET'S HOPE EVERYONE GETS THE RAIN WE NEED SUN-SUN NIGHT BECAUSE  
ONCE THE LOW GOES BY...IT'S BACK TO BONE DRY. THE FCST DOES  
ADVERTISE A CHANCE OF TSTMS WED NIGHT INTO THU...BUT DON'T BET ON  
IT. THE ATMS IS LIKELY TO BE CAPPED WITH THE EC FCSTG H7 TEMPS  
15-16C.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2018  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND  
TONIGHT. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG  
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY MORNING, WITH INCREASING CHANCES  
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. STRONG LOW  
LEVEL WIND SHEAR, HEAVY RAIN, AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE  
STORMS SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY BE A LINE OF STORMS THAT  
DEVELOP, BUT THE EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN THIS  
FAR OUT. THEREFORE, WILL JUST INCLUDE VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS IN  
THE TAF FOR NOW WITH FUTURE UPDATES TO BETTER SPECIFY TIMING.  
 

 
   
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NE...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...KELLEY  
LONG TERM...KELLEY  
AVIATION...WESELY  
 
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