582  
FXUS63 KGID 230013  
AFDGID  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE  
713 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2017  
 
FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN NEAR CRITICAL EARLY THIS EVENING FOR  
WESTERN ZONES ESPECIALLY WEST OF KEARNEY, TO FRANKLIN, TO  
OSBORNE. THE WINDS ARE VERY STRONG GUSTING INTO THE 30 TO 40 MPH  
RANGE. THE ONLY THING PREVENTING A RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON  
AND EVENING REMAINS THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES, WHICH ARE NEAR  
THAT CRITICAL 20 PERCENT, BUT FOR THE MOST PART JUST ABOVE IT.  
 
AM NOT IMPRESSED WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS EVENING, BUT WILL  
ALLOW THE SLIGHT CHANCES TO REMAIN ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN  
ZONES FROM BEAVER CITY TO GREELEY AND POINTS WEST. THE HRRR MODEL,  
WHICH TYPICALLY OVER DOES CONVECTION IS SHOWING LITTLE TO NOTHING  
HAPPENING WITH JUST A FEW WARM SECTOR HEAT OF THE DAY  
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN DRY THROUGH THE  
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE 12Z AND 18Z NAM CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT  
JUST A SLIGHT CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE OVER OUR FAR WEST THIS  
EVENING. THEREFORE, WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH OUR SLIGHT  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN OUR FAR WEST, BUT BELIEVE MOST FOLKS WILL  
REMAIN DRY. THERE IS MODEST INSTABILITY AND FAIRLY HIGH WIND  
SHEAR THIS EVENING SO CAN NOT RULE OUT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR  
TWO SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS FORM IN THE WARM SECTOR, BUT FORCING IS  
FAIRLY WEAK IN THE WARM SECTOR.  
 
SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER, WHICH  
WILL KNOCK A SOLID 5 TO 10 DEGREES OFF OF OUR HIGHS. HOWEVER, IT  
WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH OUR  
FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR ALLOWING HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE  
80S AND PERHAPS CLOSE TO 90 IN SOME EASTERN ZONES. THE BEST CHANCE  
FOR RAIN WILL BE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING GENERALLY  
WEST OF A BEAVER CITY, KEARNEY, GREELEY LINE. CAN'T RULE OUT AN  
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE WARM SECTOR AROUND THE  
TRI-CITIES, BUT LIKELY NOT TO BIG OF A DEAL. INSTABILITY WILL BE  
MORE LIMITED AND THERE IS JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF A MARGINALLY  
SEVERE STORM ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN ZONES.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2017  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT...DO NOT REALLY EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO ADVANCE  
INTO OUR AREA UNTIL SUNDAY AND THUS THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL  
CONTINUE TO BE CONFINED TO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES WITH LITTLE  
CHANGE FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 
SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD START TO MAKE THAT PUSH FURTHER  
EAST AND MORE INTO OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL COME ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD  
FRONT. EXPECT RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER ACROSS  
OUR WESTERN ZONES, GENERALLY WEST OF THE HASTINGS/GRAND ISLAND  
AREA. THERE COULD BE A PRETTY GOOD TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS OUR  
FORECAST AREA WITH MID TO UPPER 80S IN HEBRON AND BELOIT TO  
PERHAPS THE 60S IN GOTHENBURG.  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE HEART OF OUR FORECAST AREA  
AND THIS PERIOD CURRENTLY IS FAVORED TO BE THE WETTEST PERIOD FOR  
MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.  
 
MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS TO OUR EAST AND THE ENTIRE  
FORECAST AREA WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S  
OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER AND  
CONTINUED RAIN. THE BEST BET FOR RAIN WILL NOW SHIFT INTO OUR  
EASTERN ZONES. 3-DAY RAIN TOTALS BY THE TIME IT IS ALL SET AND  
DONE WILL RANGE FROM 1-3 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.  
 
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COOL AND MAINLY DRY WITH THE COLD FRONT  
NOW WELL OFF TO OUR EAST.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 712 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2017  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. THE COLD FRONT REMAINS  
OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SOUTH TO  
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PERSIST AT BOTH TERMINALS. WINDS ARE GUSTING  
25 TO 30 KTS STILL AND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL DECREASING SLIGHTLY  
OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE, BUT WITH HIGH  
CLOUDS UNTIL LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN MID-HIGH CLOUDS  
MOVE IN. SOUTHERLY WIND WILL AGAIN INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON  
HOURS SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NE...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...WESELY  
LONG TERM...WESELY  
AVIATION...BILLINGS WRIGHT  
 
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