636
FXUS63 KGID 130359
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1059 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2008
AVIATION
06Z KGRI TAF. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH KGRI
BETWEEN 08Z AND 10Z SWITCHING THE WINDS AROUND FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTH. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY
AND COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES. CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AS THE
FRONT PASSES BUT CEILING HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA BUT BELIEVE
THE ODDS OF SEEING A SHOWER AT THE AIRPORT ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT
MENTIONING IN THE TAF.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 317 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2008/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH 00Z THURS. UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER DRY WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
SO NOT MUCH TO WORK WITH THERE. BUT ENOUGH DYNAMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM TO CONTINUE A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIP. BEST AREA TO SEE SOME
RAIN WILL BE THE NEBRASKA PORTION OF FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS AND GOOD
NORTH WIND ON TAP FOR TUESDAY WITH STILL SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. MOST OF THIS CLEARS OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON
SO TEMPS WILL HAVE A LAST MINUTE JUMP BUT READINGS SHOULD STILL HOLD
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. SKIES ARE TO CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WITH LIGHT WINDS...LOWS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ONCE
AGAIN. SLOW WARM UP TO START ON WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM...00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
LIE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT.
MOST INTERESTING PORTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD ACROSS THE CWA TAKES
PLACE RIGHT AWAY. AT 00Z THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A CLOSED
LOW SITTING OVER NM CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST...WITH A PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND ANOTHER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA AND
DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
THROUGH THURSDAY...THESE TWO PHASE TOGETHER OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN. DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO POPS...AS MODELS SHOW FORCING OVER THE CWA TO BE A BIT
DISORGANIZED WITH THE TWO DISTURBANCES MOVING IN. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT GETS PUSHED THROUGH THE CWA...AND BY
LATE AFTERNOON IS JUST OFF TO THE EAST. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIP IN THE AREA...NOT EXPECTING HIGHS FOR THURSDAY TO GET
OUT OF THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE ORGANIZED...WITH A TROUGH AXIS REACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTH INTO THE DESERT SW. PRECIP
EXPECTED TO BE ENDING NEAR MIDNIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS AND SFC
COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST...WITH THE REST OF THE NIGHT DRY.
LOOKING INTO FRIDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE CWA GETS A CHANCE
TO DRY OUT FROM RECENT PRECIP. ON FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EAST...ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY SEPARATES AND DEVELOPS INTO A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE SW PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. MODELS DIFFER WITH
TIMING/PLACEMENT...AND THE ECMWF IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION WITH
BETTER CONSISTENCY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PAC
NW...LEAVING THE CENTRAL PLAINS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES AND
LOW PRESSURE TO OUR EAST LEAVES THE CWA WITH WEST/NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS HINT AT LIGHT PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS
AND THE UPPER LEVEL JET NOSING IN...BUT LOOKS TO HAVE MORE OF AN
IMPACT NORTH OF OUR CWA...SO LEFT FORECAST DRY.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...AFTER COOLER CONDITIONS ON
THURSDAY...HIGHS START A SLIGHT UPWARD TREND. MOST RECENT MODEL
RUNS SHOW THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE...AND WARMEST TEMPERATURES...JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE CWA. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE NEAR 70 DEGREES...AND
INTO THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY REACHING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
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