086  
FXUS63 KGID 270619  
AFDGID  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE  
119 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2017  
 
DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE IN PLACE AT MID  
AFTERNOON, WITH SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR DATA SHOWING THE AREA SET  
UP BETWEEN SYSTEMS, ONE WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE MIDWEST REGION  
AND THE OTHER NEAR THE WY/ID BORDER. AT THE SURFACE, IT WAS A  
BREEZY START TO THE DAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25  
MPH. SPEEDS HAVE GRADUALLY TAPERED OFF FOR MOST (STILL AN  
OCCASIONAL GUST NEAR 20 MPH), AS HIGHER PRESSURE SLIDES IN FROM  
THE NORTHWEST. NO BIG SURPRISES WITH TEMPERATURES, WITH MID 70S TO  
NEAR 80 ACROSS THE AREA.  
 
THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, MAINLY LATE TONIGHT  
THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING, LIES WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. MODELS  
ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT, SHOWING THE SYSTEM OFF TO  
OUR WNW PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH  
AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT, AND INTO THE CWA  
BY AROUND MIDDAY TOMORROW. AN ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW LOOKS TO SLIDE  
SOUTH OF THE CWA TOMORROW, DRAGGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH AND  
BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF NORTHERLY WINDS FOR THE  
MIDDAY/AFTERNOON HOURS.  
 
OUT WEST OVER PORTIONS OF COLORADO, HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON AND  
UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF  
THUNDERSTORMS. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH  
EAST WITH TIME THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND INTO  
THIS EVENING, BUT AGAIN THERE IS SOME QUESTION WITH JUST HOW FAR  
EAST IT WILL PUSH. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME AID VIA AN INCREASING  
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET, THIS IS MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NE/KS, AND  
THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS STILL OFF TO THE WEST. THE  
HIRES MODELS VARY SOME ON JUST HOW MUCH ACTIVITY ACTUALLY MAKES IT  
INTO OUR WEST (AND HOW FAR INTO THE CWA IT GOES BEFORE  
DIMINISHING), SO DID MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS (MAINLY  
THE EASTWARD EXTENT/TIMING). SOME MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE A  
BIT OF A LULL BETWEEN THIS ACTIVITY AND THE NEXT ROUND MORE  
CLOSELY TIED TO THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS, SHOWING IT POSSIBLY  
BEING CLOSER TO SUNRISE BEFORE ITS GETTING INTO NWRN PORTIONS OF  
THE CWA. KEPT THE HIGHER POPS CENTERED OVER NWRN AREAS LATE  
TONIGHT, THEN THROUGH TOMORROW WHEN THE TROUGH IS SWINGING  
THROUGH, HAVE MORE WIDESPREAD LIKELY POPS GOING, MAINLY DURING THE  
12-18Z TIMEFRAME. FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS, FOCUS SHOULD BE  
TURNING MORE TO ESERN AREAS BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING EAST OF THE CWA  
BY LATE AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY EARLY EVENING. THE POTENTIAL FOR  
STRONG AND AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS REMAINS, ONLY THE FAR SW  
REMAINS IN THE SPC DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK, THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA IS  
IN THE MARGINAL RISK AREA BETWEEN TONIGHT/TOMORROW. HAIL/WIND  
REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. ONCE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT, SATURDAY  
NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY.  
 
OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES, EXPECTING PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER  
TOMORROW, AND CONFIDENCE IN HIGHS IS NOT HIGH. CURRENT FORECAST  
CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 60S NW TO MID 70S FAR SE, BUT IF BRUNT  
OF PRECIP IS MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAYTIMES HOURS, THINK  
IT'D STRUGGLE TO GET TO THAT POINT.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2017  
 
BY SUNDAY MORNING, MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING MORE  
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BUILDING IN ACROSS THE  
REGION, BETWEEN THE DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS AND RIDGING OVER THE  
WESTERN CONUS. THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY REMAINS  
DRY, NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE PATTERN, THOUGH LOW PRESSURE  
BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE  
SURFACE, WINDS BOTH DAYS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHWESTERLY, AS THE  
CWA LOOKS TO BE SET UP BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO/GREAT  
LAKES REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED TO OUR WEST AND  
SOUTHWEST. OVERALL, NOT BAD FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE HOLIDAY  
WEEKEND, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER  
70S.  
 
MONDAY NIGHT, SOME MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A  
QUICK SHOT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MAINLY SSW PORTIONS OF THE CWA,  
ALONG AN AREA OF INCREASE MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE, ALSO AS AN UPPER  
LEVEL JET STREAK SWINGS IN FROM THE NW. MODELS SHOWING IT BEING A  
NARROW BAND, BUT WITH NOT ALL MODELS SHOWING QPF, KEPT POPS ON THE  
LOW SIDE.  
 
THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT IS CURRENTLY DRY, BUT A  
MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP FOR MID/LATE WORK  
WEEK, AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH SYSTEMS MOVING IN  
FROM THE WEST COAST. THE FORECAST HAS POPS EVERY PERIOD WED  
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT IT'LL BE MORE PERIODIC IN NATURE.  
BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS (VS JUST SHOWERS) LOOKS TO BE  
WED/THUR. HIGHS THROUGH THE TUES-FRI PERIOD REMAIN IN THE 70S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017  
 
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOCAL  
AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AS SHRAS OVERTAKE  
THE AREA AND CIGS LOWER TOWARDS THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. WHILE  
WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AT THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT...EXPECT  
INCREASING WINDS ALOFT RESULTING IN SOME LLWS DURING THE MORNING  
HOURS AND PERSISTING THROUGH AROUND 27/18Z. OTHERWISE...CIGS WILL  
SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE RESPONSIBLE DISTURBANCE  
EXITS THE REGION...WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY OR  
BEFORE 28/00Z.  
 

 
   
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NE...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...ADP  
LONG TERM...ADP  
AVIATION...ROSSI  
 
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