087  
FXUS63 KGID 232009 CCA  
AFDGID  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE  
309 PM CDT SUN JUL 23 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN JUL 23 2017  
 
DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF  
TODAY AND MONDAY. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE  
TONIGHT, BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH FOR MONDAY MORNING AS HIGH  
PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS TOMORROW WILL LIKELY BE MORE  
BREEZY THAN TODAY, POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 15-25 MPH DURING THE  
AFTERNOON.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN JUL 23 2017  
 
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD BEGINS OFF DRY AS WELL, BUT CONTINUED SOUTHERLY  
FLOW MEANS THAT TUESDAY WILL BE NOTABLY WARMER ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS  
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO THE UPPER 90S. DEWPOINTS IN  
THE MID TO UPPER 60S MAY PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES TO AROUND 100  
DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE NOT AS HOT AS LAST WEEK, IT WILL  
PROBABLY END UP BEING THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK.  
 
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA LATE  
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST  
AREA. MODELS VARY A LITTLE BIT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT, BUT  
THE OVERALL CONSENSUS IS THAT IT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED  
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THE GFS ISN'T PARTICULARLY CONCERNING  
FROM A SEVERE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE...AROUND 1000-2000J OF MUCAPE  
AND 25-25 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...BUT I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A  
"MARGINAL" RISK BE INTRODUCED TOMORROW, AT LEAST FOR PARTS OF THE  
AREA. OF COURSE, THIS WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY MESOSCALE  
FEATURES FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION (OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, LINGERING  
CLOUD COVER, ETC.)  
 
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY  
THURSDAY. MOST OF THE AREA WILL DRY OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON, BUT A  
FEW STORMS COULD LINGER ACROSS KANSAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO  
FRIDAY MORNING.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH  
COOLER AND WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S TO THE MID 90S. THESE  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE GREATLY INFLUENCED ON TIMING OF PRECIPITATION  
AND SKY COVER.  
 
LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, WE WILL MOVE INTO MORE  
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, LEADING TO PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS. EVEN  
SO, I'VE KEPT ISOLATED CHANCES FOR STORMS AS A FEW QUICK-MOVING  
DISTURBANCES ARE INDICATED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF...ALBEIT AT  
VARYING TIMES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO  
LOW 90S FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY AS WELL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SUN JUL 23 2017  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TODAY.  
WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AND LIGHT TODAY, BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND  
VARIABLE THIS EVENING. A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE  
OVERNIGHT, BUT THE THREAT FOR FOR FOG OR STRATUS APPEARS LOW.  
 
TOMORROW, WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY, EVENTUALLY GUSTING TO THE  
13-17KT RANGE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NE...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...MANGELS  
LONG TERM...MANGELS  
AVIATION...MANGELS  
 
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