888  
FXUS63 KOAX 270827  
AFDOAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE  
327 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017  
 
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS CENTRAL NE/KS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH  
EASTWARD INTO OUR THIS MORNING. THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS  
MORNING INTO THE 60-80 PERCENT RANGE. SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTH  
CENTRAL KS WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN AS THEY PUSH EASTWARD INTO OUR  
AREA. AREAS NORTH OF I80 MAY NOT EVEN SEE MUCH LIGHTNING THIS  
MORNING WITH JUST SHOWERS OR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. AREAS ALONG/SOUTH  
OF I80 HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY STRONGER STORMS THIS  
MORNING, AS STORMS TAKE ADVANTAGE OF DAYLIGHT AND WARMING  
TEMPERATURES, AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR STORM INTENSIFICATION  
14-17Z, AGAIN SOUTH OF I80 AS THE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO MAKE  
EASTWARD PROGRESS AND CLEAR THE CWA 16-19Z, DEPENDING ON AREA.  
THEN, ADDITIONAL STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THIS  
AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT LATEST HIGHRES CAMS SUGGEST THE STRONGEST  
STORMS MAY INDEED BY /JUST/ SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN EASTERN  
KS/CENTRAL MO, SINCE MOST OF OUR AREA MAY BE TOO FAR NORTH WITHIN  
THE COOL SECTOR, AND MAY NOT HAVE SUFFICIENT TIME TO RECOVER AFTER  
THE MORNING CONVECTION. WILL STILL HAVE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THIS  
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, BUT RIGHT NOW, THE GREATER THREAT  
APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS  
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  
 
THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS LOOKING GREAT WITH DRY  
WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S. THERE IS A WEAK WAVE THAT  
MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE  
PRECIP JUST YET.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017  
 
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BOTH LOOK DRY, BUT RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY  
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS RETURN TO THE AREA.  
TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED IN THE 50S AND NIGHT AND 70S DURING THE  
DAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2017  
 
MOSAIC RADAR DATA AS OF 04:30Z INDICATE A COUPLE OF SEPARATE  
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS: ONE OVER THE NE SANDHILLS AND ANOTHER MORE  
INTENSE COMPLEX OVER NORTHWEST KS. THE FORMER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE  
EAST OVERNIGHT WITH EXTRAPOLATION BRINGING IT INTO KOFK BETWEEN  
09 AND 10Z. AT KOMA AND KLNK THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS A BIT  
MORE UNCERTAIN WITH CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING  
INCREASING PROBABILITIES IN THE 11-12Z TIME FRAME. SHOWERS AND A  
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL COULD LINGER AT ALL THREE TAF SITES UNTIL  
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  
CEILINGS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN VFR, THOUGH WE HAVE INDICATED THE  
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH KOMA AND KLNK WITHIN  
THE HEAVIER MORNING STORMS.  
 

 
   
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NE...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...DEWALD  
LONG TERM...DEWALD  
AVIATION...MEAD  
 
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