790  
FXUS63 KOAX 232313  
AFDOAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE  
613 PM CDT MON APR 23 2018  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON APR 23 2018  
 
PRECIPITATION CHANCES STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY, WITH SOME SMALL CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN NORTHEAST  
NEBRASKA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT, AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD  
ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.  
 
CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT DEVELOPED TODAY FROM PARTS OF KS INTO CENTRAL  
AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST NE SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. CLOUDS  
WILL BE INCREASING LATER TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR ABOUT THE  
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE  
IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED A CLOSED LOW NEAR YELLOWSTONE  
NP WITH PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF WY AND MT. SURFACE LOW AND  
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.  
EXPECT A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER AT THE SURFACE TO BE OVER  
NORTHWEST MO BY TUESDAY EVENING. TONIGHT OUR WINDS WILL MAINLY  
BE LIGHT FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST, THEN SHIFTING TO NORTH OR  
NORTHWEST WITH PASSAGE OF THAT COLD FRONT TUESDAY.  
 
WILL HAVE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASING INTO THE LIKELY  
CATEGORY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST NE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING  
BUT THEN HIGHEST CHANCES SHIFT INTO SOUTHEAST NE AFTER THAT. THERE  
IS NOT MUCH FOR INSTABILITY, SO NO MENTION OF THUNDER. THERE ARE  
SOME SIGNALS THAT A VERY MINOR RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY OCCUR LATE  
TUESDAY NIGHT WEST OF A LINE FROM WAYNE TO ALBION BUT NO SNOW  
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HIGHEST  
MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM WAYNE TO BEATRICE, WITH 0.25 TO 0.50  
POSSIBLE. AMOUNTS EAST OF THAT LINE, LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN  
INCH AND MAYBE LESS THAN 0.10 IN IA.  
 
A FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY, WITH A  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. INSTABILITY ALSO LOOKS WEAK WITH THIS SYSTEM,  
BUT LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER  
FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST IA LATE THURSDAY.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON APR 23 2018  
 
AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD, THERE WILL BE A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE  
ROCKIES AND A CLOSED LOW OFF THE WEST COAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE  
IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN, BUT THE GFS HAS  
THE LOW JUST A BIT FARTHER EAST. WITH TIME, DIFFERENCES INCREASE,  
SO CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST DETAILS DECREASES. THE PATTERN FROM  
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD TREND GENERALLY WARMER THAN WHAT WE  
WILL SEE THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE  
INTO THE 70S, WITH LOWS ALSO WARMING FROM THE 40S TO THE LOWER AND  
MID 50S. RAIN CHANCES LOOK FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT MON APR 23 2018  
 
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. RAIN  
CHANCES INCREASE AT KOFK 18-24Z, AND AT KLNK 21-24Z.  
 

 
   
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NE...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...MILLER  
LONG TERM...MILLER  
AVIATION...DEWALD  
 
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