082
FXUS63 KOAX 090920
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
320 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2010
DISCUSSION
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TIGHTLY CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW CIRCULATING ON TOP OF THE CWA AND MOVING SOUTHEAST DOWN THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. BANDS OF SNOW CONTINUE TO FORM ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA THRU THE MORNING
HOURS AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. DRY SLOT
WAS ABLE TO WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM AND CLEAR SKIES AND VERY COLD
SLUG OF 850MB AIR HAS LED TO SOME SFC TEMPS IN THE -10 TO -15 F
RANGE IN PARTS OF SWRN IA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS NORTH OF THE COLD
SLUG HAS ALSO LED TO BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS THIS MORNING OF -15
TO -20. THIS DOES LOOK TO BE BRIEF AS CLOUDS FILL IN AND BRING
TEMPS UP TO ABOVE ZERO SO WL NOT ISSUE A WIND CHILL HEADLINE THIS
MORNING DUE TO THE SHORT DURATION. THE COMBINATION OF FALLING
LIGHT SNOW AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WL PRODUCE SOME AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW BUT DUE TO THE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED...DO NOT
THINK IT WL WARRANT AN ADVISORY. WL MENTION POSSIBILITY OF SLICK
ROADS IN HWO. SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES AND WINDS WL BEGIN
TO RELAX THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WL BUILD INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO BY WED MORNING.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS SPLIT FLOW REGIME SETS
UP WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SRN CA/AZ AND A WEAK
NRN STREAM SYSTEM. RETURN FLOW WL SET UP EARLY THURSDAY AND MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE PCPN DEVELOPING AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
INCREASES AROUND THE 290K SFC. WL CONTINUE SLIGHT POPS FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST HOWEVER DID TRIM UP THE ERN EDGE CLOSER TO DRY
HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY. LEFT FRIDAY DRY AS SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY SEEMS
TO STAY FAR TO OUR SOUTH WHILE THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY LOOKS TO
FOCUS MORE TO OUR NORTH. TEMPS WL MODERATE LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD PUSH MOVES SOUTH DURING THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
TIGHTLY WOUND MID TROPOSPHERIC LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE AREA NOW
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI AND INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY
THIS EVENING. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF IFR THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS WITH AREAS OF SNOW. PCPN SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS
WIDESPREAD DURING THE EARLY AND MID AFTN HOURS. CLOUDS MAY SCATTER
OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS BY AROUND 20-23Z AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
KERN/MILLER
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