144
FXUS63 KOAX 041400
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
900 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
UPDATE
UPDATED POP AND WX GRIDS FOR THIS MORNING AS RAIN HAS CONTINUED TO
PUSH OUT OF THE CWA.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 334 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009/
DISCUSSION...
TEMPS AND PCPN CHANCES ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR TODAY. THE MAIN
ISSUE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY IS THE CHANCE FOR PCPN. IT DOESNT LOOK
COMPLETELY DRY...SO WILL LEAVE IN SOME LOW POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS MORNING SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES. STORMS DID PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAIN IN PARTS OF
POTTAWATTAMIE COUNTY. SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED A
LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER SERN NE...WHICH SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD OVER
NRN MO TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY HANG AROUND ALL DAY...SO EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 70S.
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN PERSISTENT SHOWING LIGHT PCPN FOR OUR AREA
SUNDAY...WITH BETTER CHANCES ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
AND HIGH PLAINS. FOR NOW JUST WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SUNDAY
AFTN IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA.
MODELS ALSO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR PCPN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THE ECMWF SEEMS TO INDICATE POTENTIAL DUE TO MONSOONAL MOISTURE
COMING IN FROM THE WEST...WHILE THE GFS BRINGS A WAVE DOWN FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND ALSO BRINGS IN A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. EITHER
SOLUTION IS ENOUGH TO KEEP A LOW POP GOING.
COULD HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LOW POPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT
FOR NOW LEFT THOSE PERIODS DRY. A 500 MB TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WEAK RIDGING WILL SPREAD
INTO THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. IT APPEARS THAT SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
COULD MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN TO OUR NORTH. ECMWF MIGHT BE TOO GENEROUS WITH QPF THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. IT DOES APPEAR THAT A BIG MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE SWRN U.S. LATER THIS WEEK...BUT NOT AS MUCH INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS AS IN PREVIOUS RUNS. HIGHS SHOULD STILL WARM TOWARD THE 90S
LATER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION...
FOR TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK FORECAST VALID THROUGH 05/06Z.
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NORTH DAKOTA IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY
05/06Z. MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
20-22Z. FOG AND MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AFTER 05/06Z AS
HIGH SETTLES IN WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
JTK
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