844  
FXUS63 KOAX 272304  
AFDOAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE  
604 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017  
 
LUCKY PEOPLE IN NORTHEAST NE ARE GETTING GLIMPSES OF THE SUN, WHILE  
THE REST OF US REMAIN SOCKED IN UNDER STRATUS. SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER-  
AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER MO/AR TOWARD  
ARKLATEX, WITH ANOTHER TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER CA/NV TOWARD THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST. PATTERN IS OVERALL RATHER WEAK AND WAVY, WITH SEVERAL  
SHORTWAVE RIPPLES AND LACKING AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STRONGER THAN  
100KT. THE 850MB LOW WAS CENTERED IN EASTERN KS/NORTHWEST MO, WITH  
0C+ DEWPOINTS WRAPPED AROUND FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD  
CENTRAL/WESTERN NE AND WESTERN CO. LITTLE COLD AIR WAS NOTED BEHIND  
THE LOW, WITH A THERMAL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN US. SURFACE LOW AT 19Z  
WAS CENTERED IN SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN AR, WITH LEE TROUGHING ALREADY  
DEVELOPING AND WITH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS FROM MN INTO EASTERN  
NE/EASTERN KS.  
 
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WHAT LOCATIONS MAY SEE THE SKY AND FOR  
HOW LONG, FOLLOWED BY A RETURN OF RAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS HAVE  
ERODED FROM SD INTO NORTHEAST NE, WHILE STRATUS ARE HANGING ON FROM  
KLCG TO KOLU AND EAST/SOUTH. AS SURFACE WINDS VEER TO MORE  
EASTERLY, ALONG WITH LOSS OF DAYLIGHT, IT'LL BE HARD TO ERODE THAT  
CLOUD DECK MUCH FURTHER. EXPECT THAT THE CLOUDS WILL BACK INTO THE  
AREA THIS EVENING, AS SUPPORTED BY LOW-LEVEL RH PROGS AMONG MODEL  
SOLUTIONS. HAVE KEPT US LOCKED IN STRATUS PARTICULARLY IN THE  
EASTERN TO SOUTHERN CWA, WITH SOME BREAK IN THE NORTHEAST TO EAST  
CENTRAL CWA BEFORE CLOUDS RE-INVADE. COULD SEE SOME EROSION ALSO IN  
THE NORTHERN TO NORTHWESTERN CWA ON TUESDAY DURING THE DAY, BUT  
MOISTURE FETCH DOES NOT SUPPORT EROSION IN THE SAME EASTERN TO  
SOUTHERN CWA AREA.  
 
UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO ROLL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY  
AND THURSDAY, BRINGING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. WITH LOW SO FAR  
SOUTH, THE INSTABILITY ALSO SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA, AND HAVE  
CONTINUED TO KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. FORECAST INDICATES  
LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE FROM LOWS TO HIGHS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY, WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN CLOUDS AND RAIN. GIVEN SLOW-  
MOVING NATURE OF LOW, MANY AREAS COULD SEE OVER AN INCH OF MUCH-  
NEEDED RAIN FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017  
 
AFTER THAT NEXT ROUND OF RAIN AND CONTINUED CLOUDS, RESPITE ARRIVES  
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH AT LEAST A BREAK IN RAIN CHANCES.  
OPTIMISTICALLY, COULD SEE CLOUDS BREAK, TOO ... BUT THEN AGAIN, WITH  
NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL  
MOISTURE, HESITATE TO GET TOO OPTIMISTIC. THE ACTIVE UPPER-LEVEL  
PATTERN RELOADS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BUT AS ONE WOULD EXPECT,  
MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK OF THE WEEKEND LOW PRESENT A WIDER  
ENVELOPE AND THUS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS SUCH AS THUNDER  
POTENTIAL AND PRECIPITATION EXTENT. STILL DO THINK AIRMASS WILL BE  
TOO WARM FOR RAIN, THOUGH ON THE COOL SIDE AS LONG AS WE REMAIN ON  
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE EJECTING TROUGH/LOW. ANOTHER BREAK BEHIND THE  
LOW SHOULD PROVIDE RESPITE AGAIN ON MONDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017  
 
CLOUDS SCATTERED OUT AT KOFK AND KLNK BUT THEY SHOULD FILL BACK IN  
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. KOMA WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN MVFR  
CEILINGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. DID INCLUDE SOME MENTION OF FOG WITH  
VISIBILITY AROUND 4 MILES AT KLNK AND KOMA TOWARD SUNRISE.  
 

 
   
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NE...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...MAYES  
LONG TERM...MAYES  
AVIATION...MILLER  
 
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