319
FXUS63 KOAX 072015
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
215 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
SHORT TERM
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
LITTLE CHANGE TO GENERAL FORECAST TRENDS IN THE SHORT TERM
WITH TEMPERATURES PRIMARY CONCERN. SOME CHANCE OF PRECIP CONTINUES
ON MONDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH MAIN FOCUS
OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWFA.
LONG TERM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE
FEATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. TUESDAY NIGHT...500 MB
FLOW WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AS ONE TROUGH MOVES EAST OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND ANOTHER AFFECTS THE WEST COAST. 12Z GFS WAS A
LITTLE FASTER AND 00Z ECMWF WITH TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY/SATURDAY. THE RESULT WAS THAT THE 12Z GFS
IS ALSO FASTER WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH FRIDAY. GENERALLY
STAYED CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE FRONTAL TIMING...WHICH IS A
COMPROMISE. KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN FOR PARTS OF THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.
12Z ECMWF IS NOW EVEN FASTER THAN 12Z GFS WITH COLD FRONT LATE IN
THE WEEK. FOR NOW...FELT THAT TIMING (FROM 12Z ECMWF) WAS TOO FAST.
WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST AS NEEDED ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
07/18Z TAFS
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU FCST PD. APPEARS TO BE
POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT HUGGING AREAS ALONG THE MO
RIVER VLY TWD 08/10Z...MAINLY AFFECTING KOMA. LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO
ANY DEVELOPMENT AT KOFK/KLNK...THUS HAVE OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
FOBERT/MILLER/DEE
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