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FXUS65 KCYS 091009
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
230 AM MST MON NOV 9 2009
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
UPPER SHORTWAVE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE MOVING ENE OVER WESTERN
COLORADO WITH MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT PCPN WITH
IT. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS COLORADO EARLY THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD BE PAST THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ANY LIGHT
PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE
DRY AND MILD WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE CWA TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. VARYING
AMOUNTS OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS OVER THE AREA WITH SEVERAL
SLUGS OF ENHANCED HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO COME
OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC EASTWARD OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
SOME BREEZINESS TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA
IN FAVORED SW FLOW AREAS AS SFC TROFFING DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT OVER THE CWA WED AND THUR. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE ONTO THE WEST COAST ON WED AND MOVE INLAND THUR.
MILD TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WED AND
THUR...BUT PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS WY ON FRI. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AND MOVES THE AXIS EAST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAYTIME
ON SAT. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THE SYSTEM AND MOVES
THE AXIS EAST OF THE CWA BY SUN MORNING. HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS
THE GFS...BUT DID NOT CLEAR OUT PRECIP AS QUICK AS IT IS
INDICATING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THUR NIGHT...WITH THE PRECIP WILL SPREADING EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. AREAS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA FRI. TEMPS
SHOULD WARM ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE BY FRI AFTERNOON...THEN CHANGE BACK TO SNOW AFTER
SUNSET FRI NIGHT. WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
FRI NIGHT AS PRECIP SHOULD BE ENDING. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
IN THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS SAT AS WEST TO NW FLOW SETS UP OVER THE
AREA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA. SAT WILL BE COLD
WITH DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS FOR SUN.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
NO CONCERNS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SOME INCREASED
WIND EXPECTED OVER CARBON COUNTY TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT RHS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AND FUELS ALSO NOT CRITICAL.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
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