706  
FXUS65 KCYS 161923  
AFDCYS  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY  
123 PM MDT THU AUG 16 2018  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 119 PM MDT THU AUG 16 2018  
 
TONIGHT...A QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND MOSTLY CLEAR  
SKIES.  
 
FRIDAY...SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES. A WEAK  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD DURING PEAK HEATING WITH LOW  
LEVEL SOUTHEAST WINDS HELPING TO SPARK ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER  
AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT...EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE EAST OF THE  
MOUNTAINS IN THE EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 25, THEN  
DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT.  
 
SATURDAY...A RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES ACROSS  
WYOMING IN THE AFTERNOON, SPARKING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR COUNTIES. COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH THE  
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE.  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT...AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE  
EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT PASSAGE, THEN  
DECREASING SHOWER CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 119 PM MDT THU AUG 16 2018  
 
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL LIE EAST OF OUR  
COUNTIES, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED  
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO HELP GENERATE  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
MONDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS NORTHWEST WITH DRYING AT LOW AND MID  
LEVELS, THUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK QUITE SLIM.  
 
TUESDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING ALOFT WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM  
POTENTIAL, THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS OVER  
AND NEAR THE SNOWY RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
WEDNESDAY...RESIDUAL MONSOONAL TYPE MOISTURE SHOULD HELP INITIATE  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON OVER AND NEAR  
THE SNOWY RANGE AND SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE, OTHERWISE DRY.  
 
THURSDAY...LOOKS A BIT DRIER AS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE  
DECREASE, ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT LIMITING CONVECTIVE  
POTENTIAL. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR  
16 CELSIUS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 119 PM MDT THU AUG 16 2018  
 
VFR REMAINDER OF THE DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA  
PANHANDLE. DO NOT BELIEVE WE WILL SEE LOW CONDITIONS RETURNING  
TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST/DOWNSLOPING IN THE  
PANHANDLE. LATEST SREF GUIDANCE KEEPS LOWER CONDITIONS SOUTH IN  
EASTERN COLORADO. SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY LOWER CONDITIONS UNTIL I  
CAN SEE LATEST HRRR OUTPUT FOR THE 00Z TAFS.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 119 PM MDT THU AUG 16 2018  
 
LOWEST HUMIDITIES FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT WILL PREVAIL THIS  
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF A DOUGLAS TO LARAMIE LINE,  
THOUGH FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. INCREASED  
HUMIDITIES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL LIMIT CONCERNS.  
 

 
   
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WY...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...RUBIN  
LONG TERM...RUBIN  
AVIATION...GCC  
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN  
 
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