793  
FXUS61 KOKX 270224  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
924 PM EST SUN FEB 26 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING MILDER  
WEATHER ON MONDAY, BUT THEN UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND  
WEDNESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY EVENING  
RETURNS COLD, BUT SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK,  
WITH THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW FOR EARLY FRIDAY. IT'S A DRY  
WEEKEND AND WARMING UP ON SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
 
 
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WINDS TAKING A LITTLE LONGER TO DIMINISH  
AND BACK SW AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.  
 
LOWS IN THE 20S WITH 30S IN THE NY METRO--STILL A FEW DEGREES  
ABOVE AVERAGE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
WITH THE HIGH HAVING MOVED OFF THE COAST - THAT SETS UP THE  
START OF A PROLONGED WARM ADVECTION PERIOD. CLOUDS INCREASE  
THROUGH THE DAY AND IT'S MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON - THIS  
KEEPS TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
NWP APPEARS FAIRLY CLUSTERED AND CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL  
PATTERN, BUT NOT WITHOUT LOTS OF LOCAL FORECAST PROBLEMS THIS  
WEEK.  
 
1. TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY. WAA ADVECTION PATTERN WILL LIKELY BRING  
LIGHT RA BY LATE AFTN TUE THERE PERSISTS ON AND OFF INTO WED  
AFTN. WE HAVE LIKELY POPS, BUT EXPECT THESE TO GO TO CATEGORICAL  
AS TIMING OF PCPN BECOMES CLEARER.  
 
THERE'S LOTS OF SPREAD IN THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY  
AND HAVE GONE WITH THE COOLER SIDE (GFS) DUE TO THE ONSET OF  
PCPN AND THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. THAT BEING SAID, TEMPS  
SHOULD GET WELL INTO THE 60S BY WED AWAY FROM THE COAST - OF  
COURSE WITH A STRONG GRADIENT AT THE COAST. ADVECTION FOG ALSO  
BECOMES A FORECAST PROBLEM AND CAN SEE REPEAT OF A FEW DAYS AGO.  
 
2. WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVE. INSTABILITY IS ONCE AGAIN PRESENT ALONG  
WITH VERY STRONG SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 60 KT. LI'S OF -2 C AND  
TOTAL TOTALS IN THE LOWER 50S ARE NOT TO BE IGNORED THIS TIME  
OF YEAR AS WE SAW SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS HAVE INCLUDED TS IN THE  
FORECAST. NO ENHANCED WORDING, BUT THAT MAY COME AS WE GET  
CLOSER.  
 
3. THURSDAY. WINDY WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS. THINK  
40 MPH SHOULD DO IT FOR THE WINDS, BUT WE COULD GET CLOSE TO  
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.  
 
4. FRIDAY. CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES THE REGION. LOOKING AT THE  
GEFS SUGGEST MUCH OF THE ENERGY PASSES ACROSS UP STATE AND  
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THUS, KEEPING JUST A 30 POP FOR LIGHT SNOW.  
THE OPERATION GFS IS ON THE HIGHER END OF THE QPF ACROSS THE  
OKX FORECAST AREA.  
 
ON THE OTHER HAND, THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS SOUTH OF THE AREA.  
 
TEMPS ARE FCST SLIGHT BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY, BUT REBOUND TO  
THE LOWER 50S FOR SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE TO THE SOUTH.  
WINDS TAKING A LITTLE LONGER TO BACK WSW AND DIMINISH THAN  
ORIGINALLY FORECAST, BUT SHOULD GET THERE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HIGH  
CONFIDENCE IN SW FLOW 10-15G20KT BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE  
AFTERNOON.  
   
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
 
   
MONDAY NIGHT
 
VFR.    
TUESDAY
 
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/MVFR CONDS.    
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING
 
AREAS OF FOG WITH LIGHT RAIN  
CONTINUING. MVFR/IFR AND POSSIBLY LOWER. LLWS POSSIBLE WITH SW  
WINDS 45-55 KT AT 2KFT. SW WINDS G15-20KT WEDNESDAY MORNING.   
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 
SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. SW WINDS G20-30KT. WINDS  
BECOME WESTERLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.   
THURSDAY
 
VFR. W-WNW WINDS G20-25KT.   
FRIDAY
 
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. WNW  
WINDS G20KT.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SCA CONDS CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN THIS EVENING, BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE  
BY MIDNIGHT W OF FIRE ISLAND INLET. SEA THROUGHOUT SHOULD FALL  
BELOW 5 FT LATER TONIGHT, BUT THEN RETURN TO THE OCEAN E OF FIRE  
ISLAND INLET MON AFTERNOON/NIGHT VIA SW FLOW INCREASING TO  
15-20 KT ON MON.  
 
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST, TUESDAY WILL HAVE INCREASING  
SOUTHERLY FLOW BUT WILL STILL BE BELOW SCA LEVELS. THE REGION  
WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND A LOW  
PRESSURE AREA MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT  
GRADUALLY TIGHTENS THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT  
EVENTUALLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE RESULTING INCREASING  
SW FLOW WILL BUILD SEAS TO SCA RANGE BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND  
CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEEK. AHEAD AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD  
FRONT WILL BE POTENTIALLY THE HIGHEST OF WINDS, WHEN GALES WILL  
BE POSSIBLE FOR THE EASTERN WATERS AND THE OCEAN WEDNESDAY  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH OTHERWISE SCA WINDS FOR ALL  
WATERS. AFTER THIS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT,  
THERE WILL BE GUSTY NW FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE OCEAN  
WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE REST OF THE MARINE  
FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY. SCA LEVEL WINDS WILL PERSIST  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND COME TO A BRIEF LULL BELOW  
SCA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE RETURNING TO AROUND SCA LEVELS FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.  
RAINFALL IN THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO WEDNESDAY EVENING SHOULD  
AVERAGE AROUND 0.5" WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH.  
 
RELEASE FROM SPRING SNOW MELT IS OCCURRING DOWN THE CONNECTICUT  
AND HOUSATONIC RIVERS.  
 

 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ355.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353.  
 

 
 

 
 
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