109
FXUS61 KOKX 091148
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
648 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2010
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE TO STRONG LOW PRESSURE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW PASSES TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES TO THE
EAST. ANY SUN WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM WHAT WAS
OBSERVED YESTERDAY...GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 30S.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/
DEEP CLOSED MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW BARRELS ACROSS OHIO VALLEY TO A
POINT SOUTH OF CWA. LOW PRESSURE FORMS NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST AND
WILL DEEPEN OFF THE VA CST EARLY WED. THE LOW THEN TRACKS NEAR
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK WED EVENING AS IT DEEPENS RAPIDLY.
GFS/UKMET TRACK FURTHER SOUTH ACCEPTED AS IT SEEMS TO CORRELATE
WELL WITH UPPER PATTERN.
WILL INCREASE POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT. EXPECT
SNOW TO MOVE ACROSS NYC METRO/NERN NJ AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN
SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SERN CT MAY NOT SEE
MUCH SNOWFALL UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AS THE STACKED LOW APPROACHES AND PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH...
SNOW WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY. COULD SEE SOME MIXING OF SLEET
AND RAIN DEPENDING OF BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS...AND H8-H9 WARMING
ACROSS LI. ANY MIXING WILL KEEP AMOUNTS DOWN JUST A BIT.
OTHERWISE...BANDING WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW DURING THE DAY WED
(FAVORABLE LIFT IN SNOW GROWTH REGION). OVERALL EXPECT 3/4 INCH
INTERIOR UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF LIQUID PRECIP. THIS COULD VERY
WELL RESULT IN FOOT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...OR GREATER. ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WHERE QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS...SNOW ACCUM SHOULD
FALL SHORT OF A FOOT. CLOSE TO A FOOT NEAR THE COAST IS
ANTICIPATED...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN LI TO
ALLOW FOR MIXING AND LOWER SNOW RATIOS (ALTHOUGH IF I AM WRONG
AND PTYPE REMAINS ALL SNOW...EASTERN LI REACHES FOOT SNOW ACCUM AT
LEAST).
AS FOR WINDS...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY BY
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW DEEPENS. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN SNOW...BLOWING SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. THE LOW DEPARTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND SNOW WILL TAPER
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST.
THE STRONG LOW PASSES WELL TO THE EAST...LEAVING DEEP NW FLOW IN ITS
WAKE. A CHILLY AND GUSTY THURSDAY IS EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE VIGOROUS COASTAL
STORM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. BRISK NW FLOW PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY
WITH THE REGION SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST. DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH TEMPS RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATING SOMEWHAT TO NEAR NORMAL BY
MONDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. VFR TODAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING. W-NW WINDS AT 5-10 KT WILL BECOME W LATER
THIS MORNING...THEN BECOME L/V THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY...A SECONDARY LOW WILL FORM
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING...THEN WILL SLOWLY TRACK N
AND E LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED BEFORE MOVING FARTHER OFFSHORE WED
NIGHT.
SNOW DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT...AND CONDITIONS DROP TO MVFR...THEN
IFR. E WINDS ALSO INCREASE TO 10-20 KT...WITH LLWS ISSUES AS WINDS
AT 2K FT INCREASE TO 30-40 KT...MAINLY AT COASTAL TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK 12Z WED THROUGH SAT...
WED...IFR-LIFR IN SNOW WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT THE
AIRPORTS. STRONG NE WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT WITH 25-35 KT
GUSTS...ALONG WITH LLWS CONCERNS. SOME BRIEF MIXING OF SNOW/SLEET
POSSIBLE AT KJFK/KISP/KGON.
WED NIGHT...IFR CIGS/VSBYS IMPROVE TO VFR LATE AS SNOW ENDS. NW
WINDS 20-25 KT WITH 25-30 KT GUSTS.
THU-SAT...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.
MARINE
WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING...AND SCA CONDITIONS
WILL END BY LATE MORNING ON THE EASTERN OCEAN ZONES. TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THIS EVENING BEFORE
INTENSIFYING AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND ON WED. EAST NE WINDS
RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 20-30 KT WITH 35-45 KT GUSTS ON ALL WATERS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WED. GALE WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE
MORNING FORECAST. THE LOW WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK WED
EVENING...AND WILL FURTHER INTENSIFY. 50 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON
THE OCEAN...SO WILL ISSUE A STORM WATCH FOR OCEAN WATERS WED NIGHT.
BY THU MORNING...GALES CONTINUE BEFORE DIMINISHING TO SCA CRITERIA
IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY NW WINDS WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
SIGNIFICANT QPF EXPECTED BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
A COASTAL STORM. QPF OF 3/4 INCH NORTH AND 1 TO 1 1/2 INCH LIQUID
EQUIVALENT NEAR THE COAST...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. AS
SUCH...NO SHORT TERM FLOODING ISSUES.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...THE STRONGEST WINDS AND WAVES WILL
OCCUR WED AFTERNOON THROUGH WED EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING BY THU
MORNING. FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING...3.5 TO 4 FT DEPARTURES ARE
NEEDED...WHILE 2.5 TO 3 FT DEPARTURES ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING. TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2 FT WED NIGHT
AND 1.5 TO 2 FT THU MORNING ACROSS OCEAN FACING AREAS WHILE TIDAL
DEPARTURES WILL BE 2.5 TO 3 FT ACROSS LI SOUND WED NIGHT AND AROUND
1.5 FT THU MORNING. THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE ACROSS LI SOUND DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE WED
EVENING.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR CTZ005-006-009-010.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR CTZ007-008-011-012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR NYZ067>081.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR NJZ002>006-011.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ANZ350-353-355.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
353.
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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