073
FXUS61 KOKX 150155
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
955 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2018
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH
AND LIFT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COOL FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN SETTLE JUST OFFSHORE
THIS WEEKEND AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY RETURN ON MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS STATES.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS AT A MINIMUM RIGHT NOW, SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL 10-11 PM WHEN WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA WILL START TO SEE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM AN APPROACHING
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM NORTHEASTER PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHER NEW YORK. THE HRRR SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON IT,
SO POPS ARE LARGELY FROM THAT MODEL. OTHERWISE, FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGRESSES NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH GRADUALLY TONIGHT AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ISOLATED AND OVER THE OCEAN WHERE MORE INSTABILITY WILL BE
LOCATED. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH AND BEST LIFT AREA
SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
AND PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID 60S
NORTH AND WEST TO LOW 70S ACROSS LONG ISLAND, NYC AND ALONG THE
COAST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 500MB LOW WILL
PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AS DEWPOINTS WILL BE
DROPPING INTO THE 60S. WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FORECAST 850MB TEMPS OF 16C-17C COMBINED WITH A WESTERLY FLOW
WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS MOST
SPOTS. WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS, EXPECT HEAT INDICES JUST A
DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE. ISOLATED 95
DEGREE HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD OCCUR IN THE CITY AND IMMEDIATE
SURROUNDING SUBURBS, BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE FOR HEAT ADVISORY
CONSIDERATION.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THURSDAY WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER. THIS COULD RESULT IN HEAT
INDICES OF LOW TO MID 90S IN AND AROUND THE CITY. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS
OUTSIDE OF NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE OCEAN
BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN AND PUSH OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE ADVANCING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE LAKES ON
FRIDAY, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY,
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY, WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AGAIN INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES.
THE FRONT THEN SETTLES JUST OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
WITH ENERGY LINGERING IN THE UPPER TROUGH, THIS WILL RESULT IN AT
LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION, THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A SHORTWAVE
OVER THE MIDWEST DEVELOPS A SURFACE REFLECTION AS IT EMERGES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT
APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THAT LOW RIDES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RIDGING THEN BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE
REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE FALLING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND PLENTY OF
HUMIDITY, HEAT INDICES COULD RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY, NEW YORK CITY, AND LONG ISLAND.
AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PASS TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY.
VFR FOR THE TAF PERIOD, WITH JUST A FEW EVENING SHOWERS LEFT
OVER FROM DAYTIME CONVECTION. S-SW WINDS MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KT
SHOULD SHIFT W-WNW OVERNIGHT, THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT WITH
GUSTS 15-20 KT LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. COASTAL SITES SHOULD
SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE, WITH WINDS
EITHER BACKING ENTIRELY TO 240-250 TRUE OR FLUCTUATING BETWEEN
240-290 TRUE.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
KJFK TAF COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WED AFTERNOON COULD FLUCTUATE
BETWEEN 240-290 TRUE.
KLGA TAF COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMD EXPECTED.
KEWR TAF COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMD EXPECTED.
KTEB TAF COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMD EXPECTED.
KHPN TAF COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMD.
KISP TAF COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION LATE WED AFTERNOON COULD
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 240-290 TRUE.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY
MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE DAY/EVENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM THE NYC METROS NORTH/WEST.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
VFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF INCREASING SW FLOW INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY COULD
BUILD OCEAN SEAS CLOSE TO 5 FT FARTHER OFFSHORE. GUSTS SHOULD
REMAIN UNDER 25 KT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WINDS AND SEAS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT. AT
THIS TIME, WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.
HYDROLOGY
SHOWERS WILL TAPER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. DRY
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL ALLOW A BIT OF A
REPRIEVE, BUT AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP
LAYER SW FLOW NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WITH PW
EXPECTED TO REACH OVER 2 INCHES. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN WITH INDIVIDUAL CELLS AND ALSO TRAINING OF CELLS, MAINLY
FROM THE NYC METRO AREA NORTH/WEST.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT CONTINUES FOR TIDAL LOCATIONS ALONG
SOUTHERN NASSAU AND SOUTHERN QUEENS, ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BACK
BAYS. EXPECT ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE LEVELS WILL NEAR MINOR
FLOODING TONIGHT.
EQUIPMENT
NYC NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO-35 (162.55 MHZ) REMAINS OFF
THE AIR FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FEB/99
NEAR TERM...JM/JP/99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...FEB
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...FEB/99
HYDROLOGY...FEB/99
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...
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