184  
FXUS61 KOKX 261146  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
746 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH  
PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH  
MONDAY AND STALLS NEARBY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. ANOTHER  
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN H85-70 SHORTWAVE  
AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH HAVE WEAKENED ACROSS NORTHERN NJ. STILL  
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER WITH POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF  
THUNDER AS THIS CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...THEREFORE  
MAINTAINING THE SCHC POP.  
 
THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA BY  
AFTERNOON, BUT MAY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN  
CONNECTICUT. INSTABILITY IS LACKING TODAY AND MOISTURE IS NOT  
IMPRESSIVE. THE LINGERING PREFRONTAL TROUGH COULD SPARK OFF A FEW  
SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND EASTERN LONG  
ISLAND. RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT IN THE AFTERNOON FROM A STRONG UPPER  
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL CREATE A CAP AROUND 15KFT. THIS WILL LIKELY  
PREVENT ANY CONVECTION FROM GETTING DEEP ENOUGH FOR MUCH LIGHTNING  
ACTIVITY. DID NOT GO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE WITH POPS DUE TO  
THE INHIBITING FACTORS DESCRIBED ABOVE.  
 
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE HOT TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY.  
HAVE GONE CLOSEST TO THE WARMER MET/ECS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY.  
THIS GIVES READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S, HIGHEST ACROSS  
THE NYC METRO, NE NJ, AND INTERIOR. DEW POINTS WILL START THE DAY  
IN THE LOWER 70S, BUT SHOULD MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER 60S IN THE  
AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW GOES MORE TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH THE  
PASSAGE OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH. THESE LOWER DEW POINTS WILL  
OCCUR DURING PEAK HEATING, PREVENTING HEAT INDICES FROM RISING  
ABOVE THE UPPER 90S ACROSS NYC METRO AND URBAN NE NJ.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
 
 
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE BIGGEST CHANGE  
WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE THE DEW POINTS AS THEY WILL FALL INTO THE  
LOWER 60S TONIGHT AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SOME  
SPOTS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S. IT WILL STILL BE HOT ON SATURDAY  
AS THE STRONG MIDDLE AND UPPER ANTICYCLONE MEANDERS ACROSS THE  
MIDDLE ATLANTIC. HIGH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN  
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S ARE FORECAST. A FEW SPOTS COULD TOUCH 90  
ACROSS URBAN NE NJ/NYC METRO. WITH THE LOWER DEW POINTS, HEAT  
INDEX VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM...00Z NWP MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD  
AGREEMENT ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AT H5 INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
THE NAM IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN REMAINING GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY  
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA  
AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUN/MON. THE STRONG MIDLEVEL ANTICYCLONE  
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SAT NIGHT WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT INTO THE  
TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. DIFFERENCES ALSO BECOME  
APPARENT WITH THE PATTERN AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. WHILE THE 00Z  
EC HAS TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THE GFS IN DEVELOPING A CUTOFF LOW  
OVER SE CANADA...THERE ARE TIMING AND STRENGTH DISCREPANCIES.  
HOWEVER...THIS GENERAL PATTERN WOULD RE-INTRODUCE US TO EARLY  
FALL-LIKE WEATHER.  
 
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSING NEW ENGLAND SAT  
NIGHT...WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON SUN. ANOTHER SUNNY DAY ALTHOUGH  
ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT MIXING...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST WITH  
SLIGHTLY LOWER MAX TEMPS. HIGHS ACROSS URBANIZED NY/NY AND AREAS N  
AND W SHOULD RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH LOWER TO MID 80S  
COMMON AT THE COAST.  
 
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT TO  
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MON MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT  
LIFTS NORTH LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT WITH A WAA PATTERN ENSUING. WARMER  
TEMPS AND HUMIDITY RETURNS ON MON AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY  
MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. NOT MUCH PCPN EXPECTED AS THE  
MAJORITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH AND  
THE FRONT RUNS INTO STRONG SUBSIDENCE. THE FRONT THEN STALLS  
NEARBY WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS TUE AND WED IN RESPONSE TO  
RIPPLES OF VORT ENERGY AND A FEW PASSING JET STREAKS ALOFT. TEMPS  
WILL BE SIMILAR TUE AND WED AS THERE IS REALLY NO CHANGE IN  
AIRMASS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.  
 
A SOMEWHAT STRONGER COLD FRONT PASSES WED NIGHT...ALTHOUGH AGAIN  
MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AFTER MON  
NIGHT AS A RESULT. THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLY DRIER AND SOMEWHAT  
COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING PRECEDED BY A PRE-  
FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE COLD  
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM AROUND 17Z NORTHWEST TO  
00Z EAST. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING WITH THE PRE-  
FRONTAL TROUGH AND THEN AGAIN WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS  
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS.  
 
W/SW FLOW INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KT TODAY WILL SHIFT TO THE NW  
WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS  
EVENING. WINDS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND TO THE N TONIGHT  
AT LESS THAN 10 KT.  
 
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...  
 
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,  
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90  
 
KJFK TAF COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS MAY VARY BY AS MUCH AS 2  
HOURS. LOW CHANCE OF A SEABREEZE.  
 
KLGA TAF COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS MAY VARY BY AS MUCH AS 2  
HOURS.  
 
KEWR TAF COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS MAY VARY BY AS MUCH AS 2  
HOURS.  
 
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES  
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.  
 
KTEB TAF COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS MAY VARY BY AS MUCH AS 2  
HOURS.  
 
KHPN TAF COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS MAY VARY BY AS MUCH AS 2  
HOURS.  
 
KISP TAF COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS MAY VARY BY AS MUCH AS 2  
HOURS. LOW CHANCE OF A SEABREEZE.  
   
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
 
   
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
 
VFR.   
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
 
VFR. POTENTIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE  
WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.   
TUESDAY
 
VFR.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
A WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS BY THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE  
RETURNING TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS.  
 
SUB-ADVY CONDS PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. HOWEVER, POTENTIAL  
REMAINS FOR LONG PERIOD SE TROPICAL SWELLS ON THE OCEAN FROM THROUGH  
AT LEAST TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...SEAS COULD BUILD TO 5-6 FT FROM LATE  
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT  
WEEK.  
 

 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...24/DS  
NEAR TERM...DS  
SHORT TERM...DS  
LONG TERM...24  
AVIATION...DW  
MARINE...24/DS  
HYDROLOGY...24/DS  
 
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