073  
FXUS61 KOKX 150155  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
955 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY  
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH  
AND LIFT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COOL FRONT FRIDAY  
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN SETTLE JUST OFFSHORE  
THIS WEEKEND AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE  
WILL BRIEFLY RETURN ON MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM  
APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS STATES.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
 
 
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS AT A MINIMUM RIGHT NOW, SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE  
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL 10-11 PM WHEN WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE  
AREA WILL START TO SEE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM AN APPROACHING  
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM NORTHEASTER PENNSYLVANIA AND  
SOUTHER NEW YORK. THE HRRR SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON IT,  
SO POPS ARE LARGELY FROM THAT MODEL. OTHERWISE, FORECAST IS ON  
TRACK.  
 
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGRESSES NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT.  
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH GRADUALLY TONIGHT AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
BE ISOLATED AND OVER THE OCEAN WHERE MORE INSTABILITY WILL BE  
LOCATED. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT  
WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH AND BEST LIFT AREA  
SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS  
OVERNIGHT COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS  
AND PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID 60S  
NORTH AND WEST TO LOW 70S ACROSS LONG ISLAND, NYC AND ALONG THE  
COAST.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 500MB LOW WILL  
PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL  
CONTINUE TO FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AS DEWPOINTS WILL BE  
DROPPING INTO THE 60S. WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WEDNESDAY INTO  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  
FORECAST 850MB TEMPS OF 16C-17C COMBINED WITH A WESTERLY FLOW  
WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS MOST  
SPOTS. WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS, EXPECT HEAT INDICES JUST A  
DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE. ISOLATED 95  
DEGREE HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD OCCUR IN THE CITY AND IMMEDIATE  
SURROUNDING SUBURBS, BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE FOR HEAT ADVISORY  
CONSIDERATION.  
 
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THURSDAY WITH MAX  
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER. THIS COULD RESULT IN HEAT  
INDICES OF LOW TO MID 90S IN AND AROUND THE CITY. MINIMUM  
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS  
OUTSIDE OF NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.  
 
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE OCEAN  
BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN AND PUSH OFFSHORE  
THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE ADVANCING ACROSS THE GREAT  
LAKES. AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE LAKES ON  
FRIDAY, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY,  
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY  
MORNING. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE  
DAY, WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES  
AGAIN INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES.  
 
THE FRONT THEN SETTLES JUST OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.  
WITH ENERGY LINGERING IN THE UPPER TROUGH, THIS WILL RESULT IN AT  
LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION, THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A SHORTWAVE  
OVER THE MIDWEST DEVELOPS A SURFACE REFLECTION AS IT EMERGES OFF THE  
MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT  
APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE  
REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THAT LOW RIDES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG  
THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RIDGING THEN BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE  
REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM  
TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS.  
 
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SEVERAL  
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE FALLING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE  
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO  
AROUND 90 ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND PLENTY OF  
HUMIDITY, HEAT INDICES COULD RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS  
MUCH OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY, NEW YORK CITY, AND LONG ISLAND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PASS TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY.  
 
VFR FOR THE TAF PERIOD, WITH JUST A FEW EVENING SHOWERS LEFT  
OVER FROM DAYTIME CONVECTION. S-SW WINDS MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KT  
SHOULD SHIFT W-WNW OVERNIGHT, THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT WITH  
GUSTS 15-20 KT LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. COASTAL SITES SHOULD  
SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE, WITH WINDS  
EITHER BACKING ENTIRELY TO 240-250 TRUE OR FLUCTUATING BETWEEN  
240-290 TRUE.  
 
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...  
 
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS,  
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90  
 
KJFK TAF COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WED AFTERNOON COULD FLUCTUATE  
BETWEEN 240-290 TRUE.  
 
KLGA TAF COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMD EXPECTED.  
 
KEWR TAF COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMD EXPECTED.  
 
KTEB TAF COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMD EXPECTED.  
 
KHPN TAF COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMD.  
 
KISP TAF COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION LATE WED AFTERNOON COULD  
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 240-290 TRUE.  
   
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
 
   
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY
 
MAINLY VFR.    
FRIDAY
 
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE DAY/EVENING  
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM THE NYC METROS NORTH/WEST.    
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
 
VFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
A BRIEF PERIOD OF INCREASING SW FLOW INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY COULD  
BUILD OCEAN SEAS CLOSE TO 5 FT FARTHER OFFSHORE. GUSTS SHOULD  
REMAIN UNDER 25 KT.  
 
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT  
WITH RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WINDS AND SEAS. SOUTHERLY WINDS  
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT. AT  
THIS TIME, WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA  
THRESHOLDS.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
SHOWERS WILL TAPER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. DRY  
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL ALLOW A BIT OF A  
REPRIEVE, BUT AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE  
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP  
LAYER SW FLOW NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE APPROACHING FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WITH PW  
EXPECTED TO REACH OVER 2 INCHES. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY  
RAIN WITH INDIVIDUAL CELLS AND ALSO TRAINING OF CELLS, MAINLY  
FROM THE NYC METRO AREA NORTH/WEST.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT CONTINUES FOR TIDAL LOCATIONS ALONG  
SOUTHERN NASSAU AND SOUTHERN QUEENS, ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BACK  
BAYS. EXPECT ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE LEVELS WILL NEAR MINOR  
FLOODING TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
EQUIPMENT
 
 
NYC NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO-35 (162.55 MHZ) REMAINS OFF  
THE AIR FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.  
 

 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...FEB/99  
NEAR TERM...JM/JP/99  
SHORT TERM...99  
LONG TERM...FEB  
AVIATION...GOODMAN  
MARINE...FEB/99  
HYDROLOGY...FEB/99  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...  
EQUIPMENT...  
 
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