997  
FXUS61 KOKX 221045  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
645 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY, AND  
PASS LATE SATURDAY. THE FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH SUNDAY,  
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY. HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH MID WEEK, THEN GIVES WAY TO A WARM FRONT  
THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
FOG HAS MAINLY LIFTED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A LACK  
OF CLR SKIES MAY BE THE LIMITING FACTOR. THE MORE WIDESPREAD  
LOCALLY DENSE FOG WAS RELEGATED TO AREAS FROM CAPE COD TO BLOCK  
ISLAND.  
 
RADAR SHOWS RAIN ACROSS CNTRL PA AND SWD THIS MORNING. THIS IS  
AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER. AS  
THE UPR LOW NEAR ST. LOUIS TRACKS EWD AND SW FLOW ALOFT  
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEAST, THE FRONT WILL LIFT NWD TOWARDS THE  
AREA. A FEW SHWRS ARE THEREFORE POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY SWRN  
PORTIONS OF THE CWA, BY THE END OF THE DAY WITH INCREASING  
THETAE. THE NBM WAS USED FOR TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR  
70S.  
 
THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
 
 
THETAE CONTINUES TO INCREASE TNGT, LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN  
RAIN CHCS. THE NAM SUGGESTS ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD INCREASE  
SUFFICIENTLY AFT 6-9Z FOR AN EMBEDDED TSTM. ANY TSTM ACTIVITY  
WOULD BE ELEVATED WITH LIGHTNING AND ENHANCED RAINFALL THE ONLY  
THREATS.  
 
ADDITIONAL SHWRS AND TSTMS ARE LIKELY ON SAT AS THE H5 LOW  
APPROACHES AND DPVA ACTS ON THE MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE  
ENVIRONMENT. AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO PASS LATE IN THE DAY, SFC  
BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BY THE SLY FLOW OFF THE OCEAN,  
LIMITING THE THREAT OF SFC BASED CONVECTION. FRONTAL TIMING  
APPEARS TO BE TRENDING SLOWER IN THE MODELS, SO IF THIS  
CONTINUES IT MAY NOT PUNCH INTO THE CWA UNTIL SAT NGT. AN ELY  
BREEZE WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH  
GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTS. THE  
NBM WAS USED FOR TEMPS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY CONCUR ON MAIN FEATURES THROUGH THE MEDIUM  
RANGE. INITIAL SHORTWAVE PASSES SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH SFC WARM FRONT  
LIFTING NORTH BY SUNDAY MORNING. NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CENTRAL  
CANADA, WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS THE  
NORTHEAST. TROUGH AXIS PASSES MONDAY, WITH A SFC COLD FRONT MOVING  
ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT, AND PERHAPS SECONDARY  
FRONT MONDAY.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH RIDGE BUILDING  
ALOFT. DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER TOWARD  
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY, WITH SFC WARM FRONT APPROACHING.  
 
AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT  
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT  
PROGRESSES INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AMPLE CAPE FOR THUNDER, AND A FEW  
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE AS DEEPER MOISTURE INCREASES.  
 
AS MENTIONED, ISOLATED COVERAGE TO SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EARLY  
SUNDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CHANCES LATER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF  
THE COLD FRONT. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE NW OF NYC  
METRO.  
 
A FEW PASSING SHOWERS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ARE POSSIBLE LATER  
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THEN, DRY  
WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH MID WEEK. NEXT CHANCE FOR  
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED  
SHORTWAVE, WARM FRONT.  
 
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY, CLOSER TO  
NORMAL MONDAY, THEN REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY  
AS RIDGE BUILDS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING BEFORE  
MOVING OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THEN  
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  
 
IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WEST INTO THE  
CITY TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE CONDITIONS  
IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. WHILE THE  
PRIMARY IMPACT IS TO CEILINGS, SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE  
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AS WELL. ONCE THE STRATUS CLEARS,  
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE BULK OF THE TAF PERIOD  
UNTIL CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN  
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.  
 
EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SPEEDS  
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO  
10-15 KT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20  
KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...  
 
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,  
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90  
 
KJFK TAF COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING  
MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT  
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
THE AFTERNOON KJFK HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES  
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.  
 
KLGA TAF COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE  
THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
THE AFTERNOON KLGA HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES  
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.  
 
KEWR TAF COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.  
 
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES  
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.  
 
KTEB TAF COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.  
 
KHPN TAF COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING  
MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT  
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
KISP TAF COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING  
MAY BE OFF BY +/- 2 HOURS.  
   
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
 
   
FRIDAY NIGHT
 
BECOMING MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN.   
SATURDAY
 
SUB-VFR. SHOWERS LIKELY, POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM  
DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS.   
SUNDAY
 
CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS.   
MONDAY
 
CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY, BECOMING VFR.   
TUESDAY
 
VFR.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
FOG HAS MAINLY LIFTED EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS  
GRADUALLY INCREASE THRU SAT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.  
WIND SPEEDS AND WAVES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT  
AND SAT, PARTICULARLY ON THE OCEAN.  
 
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH, THEN SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND  
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE WATERS. A COLD FRONT  
PASSES ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH A SECONDARY FRONT  
PASSING MONDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST, THEN NORTH  
DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE WATERS MONDAY  
NIGHT AND TUESDAY, WHICH WILL RESULT IN WINDS SHIFTING BACK AROUND  
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.  
 
GENERALLY, SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
TUESDAY. OCEAN SEAS HOWEVER MAY REACH 5 FT AT TIMES SUNDAY INTO  
MONDAY, SO CANNOT RULE OUT SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ON THE OCEAN  
DURING THAT TIME FRAME.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
THERE COULD BE A FEW LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS FRI NIGHT THRU SUN,  
BUT NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED.  
 

 
   
EQUIPMENT
 
 
NYC NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO-35 (162.55 MHZ) REMAINS OFF  
THE AIR FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.  
 

 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...JMC/PW  
NEAR TERM...JMC/PW  
SHORT TERM...JMC  
LONG TERM...PW  
AVIATION...FEB  
MARINE...JMC/PW  
HYDROLOGY...JMC/PW  
EQUIPMENT...  
 
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