237  
FXUS61 KOKX 080533  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
1233 AM EST THU DEC 8 2016  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF  
COLD FRONTS CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH  
PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS MOVES  
OFFSHORE AND GIVES WAY TO LOW PRESSURE IMPACTING THE TRI-STATE  
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TUESDAY  
INTO WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
 
 
SW FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN AREAS OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS  
OVERNIGHT. WITH NO SHORTWAVES OF NOTE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW AND  
LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW...DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.  
 
WITH BREAKS OF CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS, BRIEF WINDOWS FOR  
RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE MID-UPPER  
20S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE. WITH DEWPOINTS  
WELL INTO THE 30S TODAY...PATCHY BLACK ICE IS LIKELY IN THESE  
AREAS. IF CLEARING IS MORE WIDESPREAD, BLACK ICE POTENTIAL AND  
AREAL COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS OF THE  
TRI- STATE.  
 
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS INTERIOR...AND LOWER  
TO MID 30S FOR THE COAST.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
 
 
A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND  
THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES PASSING OVER THE AREA AS  
THE PUSH AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE PASSES  
MAINLY TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY AND THE SECOND ON THURSDAY NIGHT.  
THE PASSAGE OF EACH SHORTWAVE WILL USHER IN A SHOT OF  
PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR.  
 
DRY LOW THEN MID LEVELS SHOULD KEEP ALL AREAS DRY THROUGH THURSDAY  
EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT MOISTENING OF  
THE LOW-MID LEVELS BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE  
OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NW 1/3 OF THE CWA WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE  
ELSEWHERE IN RESPONSE TO THE SECOND SHORTWAVE.  
 
HELPING TO USHER IN THE COLD AIR WILL BE GUSTY W-NW WINDS  
INCREASING TO 20-30 MPH THURSDAY NIGHT - WITH WIND CHILLS MAINLY  
IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S JUST BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING.  
 
HIGHS THURSDAY WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE, NAM  
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 925-850 HPA PER BUFKIT  
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL - WITH SOME FALLING  
TEMPERATURES BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON - ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN  
ZONES.  
 
FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT, A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM  
2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED, WITH READINGS AROUND 5 DEGREES  
BELOW NORMAL.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
OVERALL A COLDER WEATHER PATTERN IS SHAPING UP ACROSS THE REGION FOR  
THE LONG TERM AS CONVEYED BY THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM. FOR MOST OF  
THE TIME, THIS JET WILL BE SITUATED SOUTH OF THE REGION.  
 
IN THE MID LEVELS, A FAST QUASI-ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED NEXT WEEK. A SMALL LESS AMPLIFIED  
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SATURDAY WITH A STRONGER ONE MOVING ACROSS  
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST ENDS WITH LARGE AMPLIFIED  
TROUGH OR CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTHEAST CANADA TO THE  
NORTHEAST U.S.  
 
AT THE SURFACE, A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS MOVE ACROSS FRIDAY NIGHT  
THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY  
SUNDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA THEN TRAVELING TOWARDS THE REGION  
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE.  
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT POSITION OF SURFACE LOW. FOR MONDAY NIGHT  
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS, BUILDING IN FROM THE  
WEST. AGAIN, UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH POSITION OF HIGH PRESSURE AND  
WHETHER IT MOVES CLOSER TO REGION OR STAYS FARTHER WEST OF THE AREA.  
 
IN TERMS OF WEATHER, MUCH COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH  
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES DO NOT GET THAT MUCH WARMER FOR NEXT  
WEEK, ALTHOUGH MONDAY, WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF RETURN SOUTHERLY  
FLOW, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL INTO THE 40S FOR A  
MAJORITY OF THE REGION. OTHERWISE, LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES DURING  
THE DAY MAINLY 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION,  
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD  
PRECIP EVENT EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING,  
MAINLY STRATIFORM. UNCERTAINTY WITH POSITION OF PARENT LOW WITH  
LARGE DIFFERENCES IN TERMS OF PRECIP. FOR EXAMPLE, LATEST ECMWF, 12Z  
WEDNESDAY, SHOWS LOW WELL TO THE WEST, KEEPING MAINLY A RAIN EVENT,  
WHILE OTHER MODELS SHOW MORE OF A SNOW POTENTIAL INLAND. ALL  
GENERALLY SHOW MORE RAIN AT THE COAST. TOO EARLY TO TELL WITH EXACT  
RAINFALL AMOUNTS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS THROUGH THURSDAY.  
 
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FOR ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THERE  
COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF WNW-NW WINDS FOR THE CITY TERMINALS, MAINLY  
AFTER 06, AND THEY SHOULD ONLY BE 5-10 KT. WINDS BACK TO THE W  
THURSDAY, WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT.  
   
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
 
   
THURSDAY NIGHT
 
VFR WITH W-NW G20-25KT. FLURRIES POSSIBLE  
THURS NIGHT.    
FRIDAY
 
VFR WITH NW GUSTS 25-30KT, DIMINISHING TO AROUND 20KT AT  
NIGHT.    
SATURDAY
 
VFR.   
SUNDAY
 
MAINLY VFR, SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SN IN MVFR INLAND.   
MONDAY
 
MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN CHANCE RAIN/SNOW MIX INLAND AND  
CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR COAST.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS TO 10 KT OR LESS  
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SEAS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 5 FT, THUS THE  
SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS HAS BEEN  
CANCELLED.  
 
AFTER A BRIEF SUB-SCA RESPITE LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING...THE  
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SHARPLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAINS  
FAIRLY TIGHT OVER ALL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT EXPECT  
GUSTS TO 25-30KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON  
AND ON ALL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT.  
 
ACTIVE PERIOD ON THE WATERS WITH AT LEAST SCA CONDITIONS FRIDAY  
THROUGH SATURDAY. GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT  
FOR ALL WATERS. SUB SCA CONDITIONS MOSTLY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MORE IN CONTROL. SCA CONDITIONS RESUME  
SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, MAINLY ON THE OCEAN.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
IT SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING, THEN MAINLY DRY LATE  
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.  
 
THERE IS A CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD 1/2 INCH OR MORE OF PRECIPITATION  
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.  
 

 
   
EQUIPMENT
 
 
THE NEW YORK CITY TRANSMITTER, KWO35, IS OFF THE AIR. TIME FOR A  
RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN.  
 

 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/JM  
NEAR TERM...BC/MALOIT/NV  
SHORT TERM...MALOIT  
LONG TERM...JM  
AVIATION...JP  
MARINE...BC/MALOIT/JM  
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/JM  
EQUIPMENT...  
 
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