163  
FXUS61 KOKX 170735  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
335 AM EDT TUE OCT 17 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY,  
AND WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
FROSTY CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE AN UPPER SHORTWAVE  
AXIS MOVES EAST TODAY, WITH SLIGHT MEAN UPPER TROUGHING IN ITS  
WAKE. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST GRADUALLY  
BUILDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. GUSTY N WINDS TO START THE  
DAY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY.  
 
DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE, ANOTHER SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE DAY  
EXPECTED WITH COLD POOL OVERHEAD. TEMPS LIKELY ONLY TOPPING OUT IN  
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
 
 
SLIGHT SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION DURING  
THIS PERIOD, WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDES SOUTH  
OF THE REGION.  
 
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LIKELY TONIGHT ACROSS  
INTERIOR WITH A FAVORABLE WAA ALOFT SETUP FOR DECOUPLING;  
ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ONCE AGAIN.  
FROST CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE  
INTERIOR OF SOUTHERN CT AND FOR THE SUBURBS NW OF NYC METRO.  
AFTER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES, WILL HOLD OFF ON FROST  
ADVISORY JUST YET TO SEE IF ANY INTERIOR AREAS EXPERIENCE A HARD  
FREEZE EARLY THIS MORNING, ENDING THEIR GROWING SEASON. FOR  
CITY AND COAST, INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MIXING AS THE NIGHT  
WEARS ON IN STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW, WHICH MAY KEEP OR BOUNCE  
TEMPS INTO THE 40S. LOWER 50S LIKELY FOR THE NYC METRO.  
 
SUNNY SKIES AND A GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPS BEGINS ON  
WEDNESDAY AS SW RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AROUND THE HIGH TO THE  
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE  
LEVELS INT HE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE PREVAILS THROUGH MUCH OF  
THE PERIOD. ONLY A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE OCCURS  
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS CYCLONIC FOR A SHORT  
PERIOD. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAINFALL DOESN'T APPEAR TO ARRIVE  
UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.  
EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH DAYTIME  
HIGHS AVERAGING AROUND 7-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST THIS MORNING, THEN DRIFTS  
SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY.  
 
VFR.  
   
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
 
   
TONIGHT-SATURDAY
 
VFR.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
MARGINAL SCA GUSTS AND SEAS ARE LIMITED TO THE OCEAN WATERS  
EARLY THIS MORNING, AND WILL FALL BELOW SCA BY AROUND DAYBREAK  
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH SUB SCA  
CONDITIONS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THAT SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE  
APPROACHED THURSDAY NIGHT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS AHEAD OF A  
WEAK COLD FRONT WITH SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ005>008.  
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ067>070.  
NJ...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-  
353-355.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV  
NEAR TERM...NV  
SHORT TERM...NV  
LONG TERM...JC  
AVIATION...JMC  
MARINE...JC/NV  
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV  
 
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