688  
FXUS61 KOKX 250242  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
1042 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY  
NIGHT, THEN MOVE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE  
RETURNS FOR SATURDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN IMPACT  
THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
 
 
CLOUDS, MAINLY HIGH AND MID LEVEL, WERE ADVANCING NORTHWARD AS  
SEEN ON SATELLITE, WITH LOWER CLOUDS EXPECTED AFTER 05Z AS WARM  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES. INCREASED CLOUD COVER INTO THURSDAY  
MORNING.  
 
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT  
RESULTING IN RAIN DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE AFT 06Z. RAINFALL  
PRIOR TO 12Z SHOULD BE MOSTLY LIGHT.  
 
DECIDED TO GO WITH HIGHER CATEGORICAL POPS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.  
 
FOR FORECASTS OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES AND STATEMENTS WITH  
THIS EVENING'S HIGH TIDES, READ THE TIDES AND COASTAL FLOODING  
SECTION.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS AN UPPER LOW OVER SE MO MVS VERY SLOWLY NE, AN UPPER LVL SHORT  
WAVE ROTATING ARND ITS BASE WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED.  
 
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SW ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL  
CONVERGE AND BE TAPPED FROM A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING NEAR VA.  
 
WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN OF UP TO 0.50 INCH WITH ISOLATED HIGHER  
AMOUNTS, MORE THAN FCST BY THE MODELS, IS FCST BETWEEN 12Z AND  
18Z THU, LEADING TO POSSIBLE MINOR URBAN FLOODING OF LOW LYING  
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.  
 
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THURSDAY EVENING'S  
HIGH TIDE CYCLE. AND, A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR  
PARTS OF THE COASTAL AREAS FOR THE THURSDAY EVENING'S HIGH TIDE  
CYCLE. SEE THE TIDES AND COASTAL FLOODING SECTION.  
 
AS THE LOW LIFTS FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE AREA, THE WIDESPREAD  
MODERATE RAIN IS FORECAST TO BECOME LIGHTER THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
ADDITIONAL RAIN IS FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE STACKED LOW  
PASSES DIRECTLY OVER THE LOCAL AREA.  
 
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES  
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
A CUTOFF LOW LIFTS NE THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY,  
BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS (SE CT). HIGHS FRIDAY  
SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL.  
 
NORTHERN STREAM RIDGING BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT,  
WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE KEEPING THINGS DRY, EXCEPT FOR MAYBE  
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY FRIDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW  
CONTINUES TO DEPART. HOWEVER, A SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE TOP  
OF THE RIDGE COULD BRING SOME MID CLOUDS MAINLY ON SATURDAY.  
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, HIGHS  
ON SATURDAY NEAR NORMAL AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT A FEW DEGREES  
ABOVE NORMAL.  
 
THE NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST SUNDAY,  
ALLOWING FOR SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF A BROAD  
CLOSED LOW OVER S CENTRAL CANADA TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM  
TIME TO TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK (UNFORTUNATELY THE TIMING OF  
SPECIFIC SHORTWAVES THIS FAR OUT IS PROBLEMATIC AT BEST), AT THE  
SAME TIME A COMBINATION OF WEAK COASTAL LOWS PASSING TO THE S  
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM SE CANADA SHOULD PRODUCE  
ONSHORE E-SE FLOW. SO COULD SEE SOME RAIN/DRIZZLE WITH ANY  
SHORTWAVE GIVEN THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUNDAY-MONDAY  
MORNING, THEN POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY  
WITH THE STRONGEST SHORTWAVE PASSING.  
 
WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, FOLLOWED  
BY MORE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE S CANADA CLOSED LOW,  
WHICH HAS SLID A BIT FARTHER E INTO HUDSON BAY/NW ONTARIO),  
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY - WITH MAYBE SOME MORE ISOLATED-  
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  
 
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF  
NORMAL SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT, THEN RUN ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY-  
WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE APPROACH OF A LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  
 
VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH E-SE WINDS AROUND 10 KT, INCREASING  
CLOSER TO 15 KT OVERNIGHT. ON THURSDAY, MVFR CONDS BY THE  
MORNING PUSH WITH RAIN DEVELOPING, LOWERING TO IFR BY THE END OF  
THE PUSH. IFR PREVAILS ALL DAY WITH RAIN. E WINDS AVERAGING  
AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT.  
   
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
 
   
THURSDAY NIGHT
 
LIFR/IFR IN RAIN.   
FRIDAY
 
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF SHOWERS.    
SATURDAY
 
VFR.   
SUNDAY-MONDAY
 
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SEAS ON THE OUTER OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET WERE UP TO  
6 FEET, A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF FORECAST, SO INCREASED SEAS IN THE  
SOUTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.  
 
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ATLANTIC OCEAN  
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND MIGHT NEED TO BE  
EXTENDED FOR SEAS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  
 
AN SCA WAS ISSUED FOR ALL REMAINING LOCAL COASTAL WATERS FROM 6  
AM THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY FOR E WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT.  
 
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES VERY SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH  
THURSDAY NIGHT, PERIODS OF RAIN ALONG WITH ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST AFTER 2 AM TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY  
THURSDAY.  
 
AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA, WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE W  
AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT ON FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL  
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.  
 
SMALL CRAFT LEVEL SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN  
WATERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, WITH A LIGHT TO  
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT LIMITING SUSTAINED WINDS TO 15 KT OR  
LESS FRIDAY- MONDAY, SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST  
FOR THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
1.00" TO 1.50" OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM 06Z THURSDAY UNTIL 00Z  
FRIDAY. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT  
DEVELOP ON THURSDAY. MINOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS  
POSSIBLE THURSDAY.  
 
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO LATE  
MONDAY. AT THIS TIME, IT IS TO SOON TO SPECIFY, WHAT, IF ANY,  
HYDROLOGIC IMPACT WILL BE EXPERIENCED FROM THIS SYSTEM.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
THE WEDNESDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE HAS PASSED ALONG THE SOUTH  
SHORE. WATER LEVELS HAVE RECEDED BELOW THE MINOR COASTAL  
FLOODING BENCHMARKS AND ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOODING IS NO LONGER  
EXPECTED. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES AND COASTAL FLOOD  
STATEMENTS FOR THE SOUTH SHORE AND INTO COASTAL; NEW JERSEY FOR  
THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.  
 
LOCAL AND BRIEF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH  
TONIGHT'S HIGH TIDE ALONG SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND COASTAL  
WESTCHESTER COUNTY. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS.  
 
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOWER FOR THE THURSDAY MORNING, HOWEVER,  
A STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY  
MORNING WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED BRIEF AND MINOR  
FLOODING WITH THURSDAY MORNINGS HIGH TIDE.  
 
THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD MINOR AND POTENTIALLY MODERATE  
COASTAL FLOODING STILL EXISTS FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE  
CYCLE. HOW QUICKLY EASTERLY WINDS BEGIN TO WEAKEN THURSDAY NIGHT  
WILL BE KEY TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEEING WIDESPREAD VERSUS LOCALIZED  
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTHERN BAYS OF NYC AND WESTERN  
LI. ALONG WESTERN LI SOUND, NY/NJ HARBOR INCLUDING  
MANHATTAN, AND THE SOUTHERN BAYS OF SUFFOLK COUNTY, WIDESPREAD  
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY WITH LESS THAN 1/2 FT OF SURGE  
NEEDED IN MANY PLACES TO REACH MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS. MINOR  
FLOOD THRESHOLDS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE EASTERN BAYS  
OF LI AND SE CT.  
 
THE POTENTIAL FOR DUNE EROSION LOOKS TO BE LOW AND LOCALIZED DURING  
THURSDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE.  
 

 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EDT FRIDAY  
FOR CTZ009-010.  
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR  
NYZ074.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EDT FRIDAY  
FOR NYZ071-073-078-176-177.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT  
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ080.  
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NYZ075-178-179.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EDT FRIDAY  
FOR NYZ072.  
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR  
NJZ006-106-108.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-  
335-338-340-345.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-  
355.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...GC  
NEAR TERM...GC/MET  
SHORT TERM...GC  
LONG TERM...MALOIT  
AVIATION...JC  
MARINE...GC/MET/NV  
HYDROLOGY...GC/MALOIT  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...  
 
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