007  
FXUS61 KOKX 241440  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
1040 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CAPE COD TRACKS NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT,  
MOVING ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN  
BRIEFLY FOR LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES  
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND LIFTS NORTH  
AS A WARM FRONT LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS  
SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE  
WEEKEND. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON LATE SATURDAY  
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
THE FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK HERE. THERE WERE SOME SLIGHT  
ADJUSTMENTS TO BETTER MATCH OBSERVED TRENDS WITH REGARDS TO  
TEMPERATURES, DEWPOINTS, AND POPS FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE THOUGH, NO  
REMARKABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST DATABASE.  
 
A WEAKENING LOW SOUTH OF CAPE COD TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH  
TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS BACK FROM THE LOW INTO THE  
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. MEANWHILE AN UPPER CLOSED, AND NEARLY CUTOFF  
LOW, EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE DELMARVA, AS SEEN ON THE WATER VAPOR  
LOOP, DRIFTS NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND BEGINS TO FILL AND GET PICKED  
UP BY THE NORTHERN STREAM.  
 
WITH AREAS OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND THE SURFACE LOW,  
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING, EVENTUALLY BECOMING  
MORE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS VERY WEAK THIS  
MORNING AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 50 J/KG BUT THIS WILL INCREASE  
THIS AFTERNOON TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG WITH INCREASED DAYTIME  
HEATING AT THE SURFACE. FORECAST INCLUDES ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS  
THIS AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
 
 
TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO FILL AND BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE  
AFTER 06Z AND THE NORTHERN STREAM CARRIES THE LOW INTO MAINE AND  
NOVA SCOTIA, MERGING WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. THE  
SURFACE LOW BECOMES NEARLY INDISTINGUISHABLE BY LATE TONIGHT, ALSO  
MERGING WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. BY 00Z  
PRECIPITATION IS QUICKLY ENDING AS HEIGHTS RISE FROM AS WEAK UPPER  
RIDGING BUILDS TO THE WEST. THIS RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY  
WITH DRY WEATHER LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
 
WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY AT THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS. A DRAMATIC WARMUP IS  
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS A WESTERLY FLOW ALLOWS EVEN  
COASTAL AREAS TO WARM TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL PUSH A  
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL THEN  
HEAD QUICKLY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT, MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY  
AFTERNOON.  
 
THEREAFTER, THERE WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AS  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SAME  
TIME, RIDGING ALOFT WILL MEAN RISING HEIGHTS AND THEREFORE, WARMING  
TEMPERATURES, MAINLY FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST. CLOSER TO THE  
COAST, FLOW OFF THE COOLER OCEAN WATERS WILL KEEP THESE AREAS A FEW  
DEGREES COOLER THAN INLAND. WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW, DEWPOINTS WILL  
ALSO BE ON THE RISE. BY THE WEEKEND, DEWPOINTS COULD BE IN THE LOWER  
60S, MAKING IT SLIGHTLY UNCOMFORTABLE FOR SOME.  
 
THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 00Z GFS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE PASSAGE  
OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY (QUICKER  
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST). THEREAFTER, THE 2 MODELS DIFFER. THE GFS  
CONTINUES TO NOSE A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA  
INTO THE AREA, WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THIS HIGH OFF THE ATLANTIC  
COAST, AND IS WEAKER. THOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF DOES NOSE THE HIGH  
PRESSURE FARTHER INLAND THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN. THE GFS SOLUTION  
WOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, WHILE THE  
ECMWF WOULD KEEP IT UNSETTLED. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY, A BLEND OF  
MODELS SEEMS REASONABLE.  
 
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO COME THROUGH DRY  
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY, MAINLY  
INLAND AS THE LOWER TEMPERATURES OVER THE COASTAL AREAS STABILIZES  
THOSE AREAS. A THERMAL TROUGH SETS UP OVER INLAND AREAS FOR FRIDAY  
AND SATURDAY, WHICH WILL MEAN DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR  
THESE AREAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH  
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS  
WILL NOT BE A CONTINUOUS RAINFALL EVENT FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY  
NIGHT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTH  
AND EAST TODAY.  
 
PRIMARILY VFR, EXCEPT SOME MVFR CONDITIONS, MAINLY EAST OF KNYC  
TERMINALS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FLIGHT CATEGORY FORECAST. RAIN THIS  
MORNING WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON, AND ISOLATED  
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME TODAY. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND  
LOCATION NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN TAFS.  
 
WINDS GENERALLY RANGING FROM NE TO NW, BUT SPEEDS WILL BE LESS  
THAN 10 KT.  
 
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...  
 
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT  
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90  
 
KJFK TAF COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL VSBYS 3-5SM POSSIBLE IN RAIN THIS  
MORNING. TIMING OF VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION AND SOUTH WIND SHIFT  
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.  
 
KLGA TAF COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL VSBYS 3-5SM POSSIBLE IN RAIN THIS  
MORNING. TIMING OF NE WIND DIRECTION AND SE WIND SHIFT COULD BE  
OFF BY A FEW HOURS.  
 
KEWR TAF COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL VSBYS 3-5SM POSSIBLE IN RAIN THIS  
MORNING. TIMING OF VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION AND SE WIND SHIFT  
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.  
 
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES  
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.  
 
KTEB TAF COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL VSBYS 3-5SM POSSIBLE IN RAIN THIS  
MORNING. TIMING OF VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION AND SE WIND SHIFT  
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.  
 
KHPN TAF COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL VSBYS 3-5SM POSSIBLE IN RAIN THIS  
MORNING. TIMING OF NE WIND DIRECTION AND SE WIND SHIFT COULD BE  
OFF BY A FEW HOURS.  
 
KISP TAF COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MIGHT BE OF BY A  
FEW HOURS. TIMING OF VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION AND SOUTH WIND SHIFT  
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.  
   
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
 
   
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY
 
VFR.   
THURSDAY NIGHT
 
LOW CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.   
FRIDAY-SATURDAY
 
MVFR POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE WILL BE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY AS A WEAKENING LOW SOUTH OF CAPE COD TRACKS TO THE  
NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT  
AND WEDNESDAY.  
 
THE ONLY HAZARD ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS WILL BE ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE  
NO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.  
 
WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR THE LONG TERM  
WITH LIGHT A PRESSURE GRADIENT.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN 1/4 INCH ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST  
OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
NO CONCERNS FOR HYDROLOGY WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  
 

 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...JP/MET  
NEAR TERM...JM/MET  
SHORT TERM...MET  
LONG TERM...JP  
AVIATION...MPS  
MARINE...JM/JP/MET  
HYDROLOGY...JP/MET  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab NY Page
The Nexlab NJ Page
The Nexlab CT Page Main Text Page