356
FXUS61 KOKX 020731
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
331 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BE CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON TUESDAY, TRACKING
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, FINALLY PASSING ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY TO CONTEND WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AS
IT WORKS OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE TROUGH WILL DROP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, SENDING ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THE AIRMASS IS DRY, WOULD NOT BE TOTALLY
SURPRISED TO SEE A BRIEF POP UP SHOWER OR SPRINKLE, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO ADD TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. EXPECT TO SEE
SOME HIGH BASED STRATOCU THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH SKIES AT TIMES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S, WHICH IS CLOSE TO
NORMAL. LOCATIONS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH SHORE OF LI MAY NOT
GET OUT OF THE 60S WITH A WEAK ONSHORE SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING
BY THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND
AND ACROSS THE PINE BARRENS REGION OF LI, WITH THE 50S ELSEWHERE.
THIS IS AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM UPPER RIDGE (+2SD) BUILDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY BRINGING A TASTE OF SUMMERTIME TO
THE AREA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S, BUT FOR WEDNESDAY WARMING TO AROUND 80 AT THE COAST
AND THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS PARTS OF THE NYC METRO AND INLAND
LOCATIONS. THE LATTER IS ABOUT 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
NBM PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN 90 HIGHEST ACROSS NE NJ
WEDNESDAY AT AROUND 50 PERCENT. NBM BOX AND WHISKER PLOTS FOR
MAX TEMPERATURE SHOW THE DETERMINISTIC VALUES TO STILL BE AT OR
BELOW THE 25TH PERCENTILE. THIS WOULD LEAD ONE TO BELIEVE THAT
TEMPERATURES COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER, CLOSER TO THE 50TH
PERCENTILE. HOWEVER, NOT SEEING MUCH SUPPORT AT THIS TIME FROM
MOS GUIDANCE. SO FOR THE TIME HAVE STAYED THE COURSE.
WINDS DURING THIS TIME WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY AT OR BELOW
10 MPH. EXPECT FEW IF ANY CLOUDS WITH UPPER RIDGING AND
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE TO THE
SOUTH LOSES ITS HOLD ON THE REGION AS IT MOVES MUCH FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY. A RIDGE ALOFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALSO BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN, BECOMING MORE ZONAL ALOFT ON THURSDAY. DESPITE THIS,
HEIGHTS REMAIN HIGH, SO A WARMING TREND IS STILL EXPECTED.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL PUSH 90 DEGREES IN AREAS N & W OF NYC WITH
LOW TO MID-80S AT THE COAST. THE NBM DETERMINISTIC IS LOWER WITH
HIGH TEMPS THAN THE 25TH PERCENTILE. THE 75TH PERCENTILE REACHES THE
MID/UPPER-90S IN NE NJ. STUCK CLOSER TO THE DETERMINISTIC NBM WITH
THIS ONE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEING RESOLVED BY MOST GLOBAL MODELS
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER ENOUGH OVER AREAS N & W OF THE CITY TO
PARTIALLY SHUT OFF SOME RADIATIONAL HEATING. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
GIVEN THE NEARBY BOUNDARY AND WARMER TEMPS IN THE INTERIOR, BUT
CHANCES AREN'T LOOKING OVERLY OPTIMISTIC.
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS GRADUALLY
DROP ALOFT FROM A LONGWAVE TROUGH IN CANADA AND A LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ON FRIDAY PASSES NE OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY SENDING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. CHANCE POPS ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID-80S, LIMITED AT SOME COASTAL AREAS IN THE 70S. RAIN CHANCES
MAY CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO ENHANCED LIFT (AND STILL WARM TEMPERATURES)
WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ROUND
OF RAIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE IS SOME TIMING DISCREPANCY
WITH THE MODELS WITH THIS FRONT, SO HAVE CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT FOR A SLOW/WEAKER COLD FRONT SCENARIO.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH EXITS EAST. WITH THE TROUGH'S PASSAGE,
WINDS HAVE NOW BECOME NW AROUND 5 KT AT MOST TERMINALS WITH SOME
OUTLYING TERMINALS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AFTER DAYBREAK, NW WINDS
OF 5-10 KT ARE EXPECTED, BACKING SW AT SOME SPOTS. LOCAL SEA
BREEZES EXPECTED AT COASTAL TERMINALS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
BY THE EVENING, WINDS RETURN N/NNW AROUND 5 KT OR LESS AND
REMAIN SO INTO THE NIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMD EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
FRIDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS.
MARINE
EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY AS WATERS WILL BE
LARGELY INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE MET SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH AN APPROACHING AND PASSING COLD FRONT ON THE OCEAN WATERS
FOR WAVES. ALL WATERS ALSO HAVE A CHANCE OF NEARING SCA GUSTS
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BR/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...BR/DW
HYDROLOGY...BR/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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