997
FXUS61 KOKX 221045
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
645 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2018
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY, AND
PASS LATE SATURDAY. THE FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH SUNDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH MID WEEK, THEN GIVES WAY TO A WARM FRONT
THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
FOG HAS MAINLY LIFTED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A LACK
OF CLR SKIES MAY BE THE LIMITING FACTOR. THE MORE WIDESPREAD
LOCALLY DENSE FOG WAS RELEGATED TO AREAS FROM CAPE COD TO BLOCK
ISLAND.
RADAR SHOWS RAIN ACROSS CNTRL PA AND SWD THIS MORNING. THIS IS
AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER. AS
THE UPR LOW NEAR ST. LOUIS TRACKS EWD AND SW FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEAST, THE FRONT WILL LIFT NWD TOWARDS THE
AREA. A FEW SHWRS ARE THEREFORE POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY SWRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA, BY THE END OF THE DAY WITH INCREASING
THETAE. THE NBM WAS USED FOR TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR
70S.
THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
THETAE CONTINUES TO INCREASE TNGT, LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN
RAIN CHCS. THE NAM SUGGESTS ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD INCREASE
SUFFICIENTLY AFT 6-9Z FOR AN EMBEDDED TSTM. ANY TSTM ACTIVITY
WOULD BE ELEVATED WITH LIGHTNING AND ENHANCED RAINFALL THE ONLY
THREATS.
ADDITIONAL SHWRS AND TSTMS ARE LIKELY ON SAT AS THE H5 LOW
APPROACHES AND DPVA ACTS ON THE MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO PASS LATE IN THE DAY, SFC
BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BY THE SLY FLOW OFF THE OCEAN,
LIMITING THE THREAT OF SFC BASED CONVECTION. FRONTAL TIMING
APPEARS TO BE TRENDING SLOWER IN THE MODELS, SO IF THIS
CONTINUES IT MAY NOT PUNCH INTO THE CWA UNTIL SAT NGT. AN ELY
BREEZE WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTS. THE
NBM WAS USED FOR TEMPS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY CONCUR ON MAIN FEATURES THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE. INITIAL SHORTWAVE PASSES SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH SFC WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTH BY SUNDAY MORNING. NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA, WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. TROUGH AXIS PASSES MONDAY, WITH A SFC COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT, AND PERHAPS SECONDARY
FRONT MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH RIDGE BUILDING
ALOFT. DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY, WITH SFC WARM FRONT APPROACHING.
AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AMPLE CAPE FOR THUNDER, AND A FEW
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE AS DEEPER MOISTURE INCREASES.
AS MENTIONED, ISOLATED COVERAGE TO SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
SUNDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CHANCES LATER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE NW OF NYC
METRO.
A FEW PASSING SHOWERS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ARE POSSIBLE LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THEN, DRY
WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH MID WEEK. NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE, WARM FRONT.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY, CLOSER TO
NORMAL MONDAY, THEN REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AS RIDGE BUILDS.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THEN
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WEST INTO THE
CITY TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. WHILE THE
PRIMARY IMPACT IS TO CEILINGS, SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AS WELL. ONCE THE STRATUS CLEARS,
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE BULK OF THE TAF PERIOD
UNTIL CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SPEEDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO
10-15 KT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
KJFK TAF COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING
MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AFTERNOON KJFK HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KLGA TAF COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AFTERNOON KLGA HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KEWR TAF COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB TAF COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KHPN TAF COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING
MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
KISP TAF COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING
MAY BE OFF BY +/- 2 HOURS.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FRIDAY NIGHT
BECOMING MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN.
SATURDAY
SUB-VFR. SHOWERS LIKELY, POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS.
SUNDAY
CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY
CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY, BECOMING VFR.
TUESDAY
VFR.
MARINE
FOG HAS MAINLY LIFTED EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS
GRADUALLY INCREASE THRU SAT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
WIND SPEEDS AND WAVES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT
AND SAT, PARTICULARLY ON THE OCEAN.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH, THEN SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE WATERS. A COLD FRONT
PASSES ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH A SECONDARY FRONT
PASSING MONDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST, THEN NORTH
DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY, WHICH WILL RESULT IN WINDS SHIFTING BACK AROUND
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.
GENERALLY, SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. OCEAN SEAS HOWEVER MAY REACH 5 FT AT TIMES SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, SO CANNOT RULE OUT SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ON THE OCEAN
DURING THAT TIME FRAME.
HYDROLOGY
THERE COULD BE A FEW LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS FRI NIGHT THRU SUN,
BUT NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED.
EQUIPMENT
NYC NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO-35 (162.55 MHZ) REMAINS OFF
THE AIR FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JMC/PW
NEAR TERM...JMC/PW
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...FEB
MARINE...JMC/PW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/PW
EQUIPMENT...
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