481  
FXUS61 KOKX 290000  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
800 PM EDT WED JUN 28 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD AND BECOME NEARLY  
STATIONARY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST, WHILE A WARM FRONT PASSES  
WELL TO THE NORTH. THE OFFSHORE HIGH WILL DOMINATE FROM FRIDAY  
INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THE  
FRONT MAY THEN BECOME STATIONARY JUST TO THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT  
WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
 
 
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. JUST SOME MINOR UPDATES TO T/TD AND SKY  
BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. INSTABILITY CU CONTINUE TO  
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING, SO EXPECT A MOSTLY CLEAR  
NIGHT. THIN HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVE THIS EVENING, THEN ALSO SOME MID  
LEVEL CLOUDS AS A MID LEVEL VORT MAX OUTRUNS A FLATTENING UPPER  
RIDGE TO THE WEST. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO OR A FEW  
DEGREES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE MINS, WITH 55-60 WELL INLAND AND  
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN LONG ISLAND, AND 60-65 ELSEWHERE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP BY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH  
MOVES OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC, AND AS A WARM FRONT OUT AHEAD OF  
LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SETS UP ACROSS UPSTATE NY  
AND NEW ENGLAND, S-SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 MPH WITH  
GUSTS 30-35 MPH, AND IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT MUCH OF LONG  
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT COULD SEE PEAK WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 40 MPH  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS AWAY FROM IMMEDIATE SOUTH-FACING  
SHORES SHOULD PEAK IN THE 80S, THOUGH IF THE STRONGER SOUTHERLY  
FLOW KICKS IN SOONER THAN EXPECTED, MUCH OF LONG ISLAND MAY NOT  
MAKE IT OUT OF THE 70S. HIGHS IN URBAN NE NJ MAY APPROACH 90.  
 
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED AT THE OCEAN BEACHES,  
PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 
FOR THU NIGHT, WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL OFF TO THE NORTH DO NOT  
EXPECT MUCH OF ANY PRECIP, THOUGH EASTERN AREAS COULD SEE SOME  
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS AN AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK  
INSTABILITY RIDES ACROSS. IT WILL ALSO BE WARMER AND MORE HUMID  
THAN RECENT NIGHTS, WITH LOWS 65-70.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN WARMER AND MORE  
HUMID AIR FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH PERIOD, WITH THE BETTER CHANCES DURING  
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  
 
DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN ON MONDAY WITH THE NEXT  
CHANCE AT SHOWERS AND STORMS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  
 
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S WITH  
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS ARE ALSO  
POSSIBLE IN THE NYC METRO AND NE NJ. MAX HEAT INDICES LOOK TO STAY  
IN THE LOWER 90S BOTH DAYS AT THIS TIME AT THESE LOCATIONS, WITH  
UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. CLOSER TO THE COAST, ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP  
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT  
COOLER ON SUNDAY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S DUE TO INCREASING  
CLOUDS AND HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. HIGHS SHOULD  
GRADUALLY FALL BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.  
 
VFR. WSW-SW WINDS UNDER 10 KT TONIGHT ONCE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE  
WEARS OFF. FOR THURSDAY, VFR CONTINUES. SW WINDS EVENTUALLY  
INCREASING TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS MOSTLY AROUND 25 KT. STRONGEST  
AND MOST SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AT KJFK AND KLGA.  
 
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...  
 
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS,  
CAN BE FOUND AT HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90  
 
KJFK TAF COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE UNTIL  
01-02Z.  
 
KLGA TAF COMMENTS: WINDS COULD BE CLOSER TO 180-190 TRUE THROUGH  
02Z.  
 
KEWR TAF COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.  
 
KTEB TAF COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.  
 
KHPN TAF COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.  
 
KISP TAF COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.  
   
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
 
   
THURSDAY NIGHT
 
VFR. EARLY EVENING GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.   
FRIDAY-SATURDAY MORNING
 
MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTM  
NORTH AND WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SW GUSTS 25 KT FRI PM.   
SATURDAY AFTERNOON-SUNDAY
 
CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH  
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. SW GUSTS 20-25 KT SAT PM.   
MONDAY
 
VFR.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
QUIET THROUGH THU MORNING, THEN S-SW FLOW SHOULD INCREASE AND  
BRING SCA CONDITIONS TO ALL WATERS, THOUGH THIS MAY BE MAINLY  
NEAR SHORE ACROSS LONG ISLAND SOUND. WINDS MAY PEAK BRIEFLY AT  
35 KT ACROSS THE BAYS LATE THU AFTERNOON, NOT LONG ENOUGH IN  
DURATION TO WARRANT A GALE WARNING. OCEAN SEAS SHOULD QUICKLY  
RESPOND AND BUILD TO 5-6 FT THU AFTERNOON.  
 
WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE PROTECTED WATERS AFTER DARK ON THU,  
WHILE SCA CONDS CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN MAINLY VIA HIGHER SEAS OF  
5-6 FT.  
 
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN ON FRIDAY AS A  
STRONG SW FLOW CONTINUES. OCEAN SEAS MAY REACH 4 TO 6 FEET ON  
FRIDAY, THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAKER PRESSURE  
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT  
WEEK, WITH QUIET CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
EQUIPMENT
 
 
OBSERVATIONS FROM KFRG (FARMINGDALE, NY) MAY STILL BE SPORADIC  
DUE TO A COMMUNICATION LINE OUTAGE. RETURN TO FULL SERVICE TIME  
IS STILL UNKNOWN.  
 

 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY  
EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.  
NJ...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT  
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR  
ANZ350-353-355.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...FIG/GOODMAN  
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN  
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN  
LONG TERM...FIG  
AVIATION...JC  
MARINE...FIG/GOODMAN  
HYDROLOGY...FIG/GOODMAN  
EQUIPMENT...  
 
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