979
FXUS61 KOKX 271754
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
154 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016
SYNOPSIS
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST OFFSHORE GOING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE VICINITY DURING
WEDNESDAY WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THEN,
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL
MEANDER ABOUT THIS REGION INTO THE WEEKEND BRINGING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
THE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND WITH THE
WEAKENING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE AS IT FURTHER
WEAKENS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF
A GENERAL SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.
THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK GOING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DRY CONDITIONS STILL ANTICIPATED. CLOUDS ARE THINNING OUT FROM NW
TO SE GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN WITH THE MORE
WESTERLY FLOW.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL BUT PERHAPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH MORE SUN.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE OCEAN
BEACHES FOR TODAY.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
LOOKS LIKE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NOT TOO FAR OFFSHORE
TONIGHT AND MAY BEGIN TO DRIFT BACK TOWARDS THE CWA BY LATE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE AT NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS RIDGING WILL LIMIT MOISTURE TO THE LOW LEVELS.
ISENTROPIC LIFT PUSHING IN FROM THE EAST COULD SUPPLY ENOUGH LIFT
FOR LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WITH THE BEST OVERALL CHANCES APPEARING TO
BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS TONIGHT, BUT
ONLY OVER THE TWIN FORKS REGION...AND THEN EXPAND POPS WESTWARD
DURING WENDESDAY, BUT CAPPING THEM AT CHANCE. TEMPERATURES ARE A
BLEND OF SUPERBLEND, MAV AND MET MOS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
NWP GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
H5 PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...THEN SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE NEXT
TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW ENTERING THE PACNW ALTHOUGH THIS SHOULD NOT
IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS WITH CUTOFF LOW PRES OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY TRAPPED BETWEEN RIDGING TO THE EAST AND WEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE SYSTEM MEANDERING ABOUT THIS AREA INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE THE RIDGE TO THE EAST FINALLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ALLOWING
IT TO TRACK THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE DECREASES IN THE FINER DETAILS...ALTHOUGH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE SFC LOW IN COMBINATION WITH
STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN MUCH NEEDED OVERRUNNING
RAINFALL WED NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. WHILE THE PERIODS OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL REMAIN UNCERTAIN THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT THU NIGHT COULD
BE ONE TIMEFRAME WHERE HEAVIER PCPN DOES OCCUR WITH MID LEVEL VORT
ENERGY PASSING THROUGH.
UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS A TRANSITION TO MORE SHOWERY PCPN WITH MID
LEVEL RIDGING TRYING TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST. MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL STILL BE ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO UNDER THIS
PATTERN. WARM FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH ON SUN AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS
TO LIFT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALSO PUSH THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TO THE NORTH AS WELL...RESULTING IN DECREASING POPS
THROUGH MON.
THE EC REMAINS THE WESTERN OUTLIER...HANGING TOUGH WITH THIS SOLN
FOR THE PAST 3 RUNS...ALTHOUGH IT HAS MOVED SOMEWHAT CLOSER TO
CONSENSUS. BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM...HEAVIEST RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO FALL WEST OF THE AREA. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON EXPECTED TOTALS LOCALLY.
REMOVED THUNDER AS THE LOWER HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LOW
ARE TOO FAR WEST...THUS IT REMAINS TOO WARM ALOFT FOR ANY ELEVATED
INSTABILITY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR AT MOST TERMINALS BUT POCKETS OF MVFR REMAIN ESPECIALLY KISP
AND KGON. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON BUT CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST.
LIGHT WIND MAINLY W 10 KT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BRIEFLY BECOME
S-SW AROUND CITY TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING BEFORE BECOMING NE AROUND 5 KT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY
MIDDAY...NE WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KT AND BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES
NEAR 20-25 KT.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
KJFK TAF COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE TO ADJUST WIND DIRECTION
AND/OR CIGS.
KLGA TAF COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE TO ADJUST WIND DIRECTION
AND/OR CIGS.
KEWR TAF COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE TO ADJUST WIND DIRECTION
AND/OR CIGS.
KTEB TAF COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE TO ADJUST WIND DIRECTION
AND/OR CIGS.
KHPN TAF COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE TO ADJUST WIND DIRECTION
AND/OR CIGS.
KISP TAF COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE TO ADJUST WIND DIRECTION
AND/OR CIGS.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WED
BECOMING MVFR LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. NE GUSTS TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THU-SAT
IFR/MVFR IN SHOWERS. NE WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
25-30 KT POSSIBLE THU-FRI.
SUN
MAINLY VFR BUT MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. N WINDS
10-20 KT.
MARINE
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND MOVE OUT OF THE OCEAN ZONES EAST
OF MORICHES INLET INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS HAVE LOWERED WITH REGARDS TO WINDS AND
SEAS. KEPT SCA GOING FOR OCEAN EAST OF MORICHES INLET BUT ONLY DUE
TO RESIDUAL HIGHER SEAS FOR THE REST OF TODAY. OTHERWISE, ALL
OTHER WATERS ARE BELOW SCA CRITERIA. THE SCA CONDITIONS ON THE
EASTERN OCEAN MAY END UP LOWERING SOONER THAN FORECAST.
MAINLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN LOOK TO PREVAIL TONIGHT, THEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING WINDS.
WILL PROBABLY NEED ANOTHER SCA FOR SOME OF THE WATERS, BUT WITH
THE CURRENT HEADLINE UP, WILL WAIT BEFORE POSTING ANY HEADLINES
FOR THAT PERIOD.
SCA CONDITIONS ALL WATERS WED NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THU NIGHT
DUE TO A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOW PROBABILITY OF MARGINAL GALE FORCE GUSTS DURING THIS
TIME...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION IN THE HWO. IT MAY ONLY BE
CONFINED TO THE OCEAN WATERS HOWEVER. THE GFS IS INDICATING GUSTS
INTO THE 40'S BUT FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE. NAM LOOKS MORE
REASONABLE...BUT PERHAPS A TAD LIGHT. HAVE USED A COMPROMISE OF
THE 2 WEIGHTED MORE TOWARDS THE NAM.
WINDS SUBSIDE ON FRI AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS...ALTHOUGH SEAS ON
THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...POSSIBLY INTO SAT.
HYDROLOGY
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND ANY RAIN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL
BE LIGHT WITH RAINFALL TOTALS LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
THE PROXIMITY OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK LOOKS TO
BE TOO FAR WEST AT THE CURRENT TIME FOR THE LOCAL AREA TO FALL IN
THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF. CURRENTLY BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 1/2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IS FORECAST BETWEEN WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT. THIS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A PERSISTENT MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW DURING MID TO LATE WEEK MAY
COMBINE WITH INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NEW MOON ON FRIDAY TO CAUSE MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING LATE THIS WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ350.
SYNOPSIS...JC/24
NEAR TERM...JC/JM
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...JC/24/JM
HYDROLOGY...JC/24
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page