330  
FXUS61 KOKX 252317  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
717 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH  
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A  
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO  
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA FOR MONDAY INTO  
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON AND MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY EVENING.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
 
 
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED JUST SOUTHEAST OF  
THE REGION THIS EVENING, WITH A GRADUALLY STABILIZING AND  
DRYING ENVIRON IN ITS WAKE.  
 
ISOLATED SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH  
9PM AS COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE  
SLIDES THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, BUT ADDITIONAL SEVERE  
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.  
 
A NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN TONIGHT IN THE  
WAKE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. LOWS TONIGHT  
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST AND UPPER 60S INTERIOR  
WITH TDS GRADUALLY FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
REGION REMAIN ON NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF STRONG SOUTHERN UPPER  
RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH SUBTLE RIDGING NOSING IN ON  
SATURDAY GIVING WAY TO A SHEARING CENTRAL PLAIN SHORT WAVE SAT  
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  
 
AT THE SURFACE, THIS EVENING'S COLD FRONT SLIDES WELL SE OF THE  
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING  
IN FROM THE NORTH AND CENTERING TO THE E OF THE REGION BY SAT  
NIGHT.  
 
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, WITH NOTICEABLY DRIER AND  
COOLER AIRMASS ADVECTING IN ON GUSTY N/NE FLOW SATURDAY AM, AND A  
VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS IN UPPER FLOW. TEMPS WILL STILL RUN SLIGHT ABOVE  
SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, AND HEAT INDICES  
SIMILAR.  
 
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A SHEARING CENTRAL PLAINS  
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING SAT NIGHT AND MOVING ACROSS THE AREA  
SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE, THIS WILL HAVE A WARM FRONT APPROACHING  
THE AREA SAT NIGHT BUT LIKELY NOT CLEANLY MOVING THROUGH THE  
AREA TILL SUN AFT WITH A TRAILING TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION IN  
THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME LOCKING IN  
ON THE SPECIFIC OF THIS EVENT FOR A FEW DAYS, WITH LIKELY  
DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING THE SYNOPTIC DEVELOPMENT TIED TO  
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SEEMS TO BE SOME GENERAL  
AGREEMENT IN A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE  
REGION SUN MORNING INTO AFTERNOON, WHICH WOULD BE A FOCUS FOR  
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY AND A LOW  
FLASH FLOOD AND SEVERE RISK IN A HIGH SHEAR AND MARGINALLY  
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED THIS WAVE NORTH  
OF THE REGION, WHICH WOULD LIMIT SEVERE/FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL  
IN THE MORNING, AND KEEP IT LOW AND ISOLATED IN THE AFT/EVE WITH  
WARM FRONT/TROUGH PASSAGE. THIS WILL BE REFINED THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND AS THE CONVECTIVELY MODIFIED SHORTWAVE GETS BETTER  
SAMPLED IT RESOLVED BY HIGH RES CAMS.  
 
OTHERWISE NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH  
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. WARM AND  
MUGGY FOR SUNDAY, BUT TEMPS MAY REMAIN BELOW SEASONABLE WITH  
CLOUDS AND SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM WITH THIS UPDATE.  
 
KEY POINTS:  
 
*HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK, POTENTIALLY  
LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. THE PEAK OF THE HEAT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO  
OCCUR ON TUESDAY WITH MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES 100 TO AROUND 105F.  
 
*A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES WEDNESDAY, POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO  
THURSDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.  
 
*TEMPERATURES TREND DOWN TO END THE WEEK WITH POTENTIAL OF BELOW  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HUMIDITY LEVELS ALSO SHOULD BE MUCH LOWER THAN  
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.  
 
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES WITH A LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF  
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CONUS DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN EARLY  
NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE BUILDS TOWARDS THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN  
SLOWLY GETS PUSHED SOUTHWARD AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN FROM  
SOUTHEAST CANADA TO END THE WEEK. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE  
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS LATE TUESDAY INTO THE MID  
WEEK PERIOD.  
 
850 MB TEMPERATURES NEARING 18-21C EARLY NEXT WEEK, PEAKING ON  
TUESDAY, WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S  
(UPPER 80S AT THE COAST). DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO THE LOW  
AND MID 70S BY TUESDAY RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES POTENTIALLY AS HIGH  
AS THE LOW 100S (UPPER 90S COASTAL AREAS). HEAT HEADLINES ARE LIKELY  
TO BE NEEDED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THERE IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY  
WITH THE EXTENT OF THE HEAT ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO TIMING OF THE  
AFOREMENTIONED SECOND COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT PASSAGE MAY NOT OCCUR  
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY, WHICH WOULD POTENTIALLY BRING  
ANOTHER DAY OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON WEDNESDAY. THE AIR MASS THEN  
COOLS SIGNIFICANTLY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING  
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE LATEST NBM DETERMINISTIC INDICATES HIGHS  
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S BY FRIDAY.  
 
A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT  
THE CHANCES ARE A BIT HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE STRONGER COLD  
FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE 500-1000J/KG OF MUCAPE THOUGH SHEAR  
IS WEAK (~20KTS) ON TUESDAY. SHEAR INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY AND MODEST  
INSTABILITY MAY BE PRESENT. CSU-MLP MACHINE LEARNING OUTPUT IS  
HIGHLIGHTING A 15-30% CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY FROM  
NYC NORTH AND WEST TUESDAY. IT ALSO INDICATES A SIMILAR POTENTIAL ON  
WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH IT IS SHIFTED FROM NYC METRO ON SOUTH AND WEST.  
THESE DETAILS WILL COME INTO MORE FOCUS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT  
THE TREND IN THE LAST 24 HOURS IS LEANING TOWARDS WEDNESDAY WITH THE  
MAIN COLD FRONT AND MORE ORGANIZED FORCING FOR CONVECTION.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH HIGH PRESSURE  
BRIEFLY FOLLOWING FOR SATURDAY.  
 
SW WINDS AROUND 10 KT BECOME NW BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN  
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS THEN VEER OVERNIGHT INTO  
SATURDAY BECOMING SE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 10 KT.  
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS  
AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF TSRA.  
 
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...  
 
THUNDERSTORM THREAT HAS COME TO AN END, EXCEPT PERHAPS VCTS AT  
EWR THROUGH 01Z.  
   
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
 
 
 
SATURDAY: VFR.  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY  
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
MONDAY: VFR.  
 
TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER IN  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON.  
 
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,  
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE OCEAN, MAINLY EAST OF  
MORICHES INLET, IS EXPECTED TO SINK SE OF THE WATERS BY 9PM.  
GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.  
 
A BRIEF PERIOD OF 20 KT GUSTS IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO  
SATURDAY MORNING.  
 
A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL  
LEAD TO CONDITIONS STAYING BELOW SCA LEVELS.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
THE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT HAS COME TO AN END FOR THIS  
EVENING.  
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM  
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON SUNDAY THAT PRESENT A  
MINOR URBAN FLOODING THREAT, WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT  
APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.  
 
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
A MODERATE TO LOCALLY HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IS IN EFFECT THROUGH  
THIS EVENING WITH SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FT. A  
MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES FOR SATURDAY, THOUGH SURF  
HEIGHTS LESSEN TO 2-3FT AND WINDS BECOME EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAYBE BE TIED OR BROKEN TODAY  
JULY 25TH. HERE ARE THE CURRENT RECORDS FOR THE DAY...  
 
EWR 99/2016  
BDR 93/2001  
NYC 97/1999  
LGA 97/1999  
JFK 93/2010  
ISP 94/1987  
 

 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ009>012.  
NY...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ069>075-  
078>081-176>179.  
NJ...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ004-006-  
103>108.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...DS/NV  
NEAR TERM...NV  
SHORT TERM...NV  
LONG TERM...DS  
AVIATION...JT  
MARINE...DS/NV  
HYDROLOGY...DS/NV  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...  
CLIMATE...  
 
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