257  
FXUS61 KOKX 230451  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
1151 PM EST THU FEB 22 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT WILL SLIDES EAST  
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS  
THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH  
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, AND A COLD FRONT PASSES LATE SUNDAY.  
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
 
 
ANY PCPN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION. THE FCST HAS BEEN UPDATED  
ACCORDINGLY. THE CLEARING LINE WAS INVOF THE MASS PIKE. WITH  
WLY FLOW PROGGED AT THE 6K FT MOIST LAYER, AND MOIST ENELY FLOW  
AT THE LLVLS, MAINLY OVC SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE NGT.  
IF THE CLOUD COVER EROSION BLEEDS SWD INTO THE CWA, THIS  
GRADIENT ZONE WILL BE A PRIME SPOT FOR FZFG. TEMPS WILL FALL  
INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER TO MID 30S.  
 
THE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REPRESENT  
PCPN EXPECTED FRI.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
NEXT FOCUS OF ATTENTION IS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH  
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING.  
 
PRECIPITATION SPREADS FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY MORNING, WITH  
ALL AREAS SEEING PCPN DURING THE AFTERNOON. 12Z THERMAL PROFILES  
SUPPORT RAIN FOR THE MOST PART, HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE THAT  
WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY CAN PICK UP A COUPLE HOURS OF FREEZING  
RAIN. A LOT OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE  
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE AREA. IF THE PRECIP MOVES IN  
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN FORECAST, THERE WILL BE A GREATER THREAT  
FOR FREEZING RAIN. IF THE PRECIPITATION HOLDS OFF TIL MID TO  
LATE MORNING, THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES COULD  
REACH FREEZING, LOWERING THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN. RIGHT NOW  
DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE AND COVERAGE TO GO WITH AN ADVISORY,  
AND WILL LET SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS ASSESS TRENDS AND ISSUE ANY AS  
NEEDED.  
 
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN FORECAST TO WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN BY  
AFTERNOON. RAIN CONTINUES IN THE EVENING, WITH DRIER WEATHER  
EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING  
NEAR THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT, WILL LEAVE AT LEAST A SLIGHT  
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL  
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG.  
 
HIGHS ON FRIDAY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER TO MID 40S,  
WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY FALLING A FEW DEGREES FOR FRIDAY NIGHTS  
LOWS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN  
THE LOW 50S. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER  
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY WHILE ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO  
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES  
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH LESS THAN THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF  
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO  
LOWER 50S.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH DRY  
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA THURSDAY.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH LOWS IN  
THE LOW TO MID 30S MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH, THEN SHIFTS OFF THE  
NORTHEAST COAST ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE  
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  
 
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, WITH OCCASIONAL IFR  
POSSIBLE AT KJFK, KLGA AND KISP. THE TIMING OF THE  
REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR CONDITIONS IS LESS CERTAIN ELSEWHERE, BUT  
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING.  
 
IFR THEN BECOMES LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING  
AS LIGHT RAIN MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION, WITH LIGHT FREEZING  
RAIN BEGINNING AT KSWF. CONDITIONS THEN DETERIORATE FURTHER  
THROUGH THE DAY WITH IFR-LIFR PREVAILING IN RAIN. A BRIEF PERIOD  
OF LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT.  
 
NE-E WIND 10 KT OR LESS TONIGHT BECOMING E TO SE FRIDAY.  
   
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
 
   
SAT
 
CHC MVFR AND RAIN.   
SUN
 
MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. S WINDS G20 KT.   
MON
 
VFR. W WINDS G20 KT.   
TUESDAY
 
VFR. WNW WINDS G20 KT.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH  
FRIDAY MORNING AS EASTERLY WINDS GUST AROUND 25 KT WHILE  
BUILDING SEAS UP TO 5-6 FEET. REST OF THE WATER SHOULD REMAIN  
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS AND SEAS FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA  
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  
 
TRANQUIL WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST SATURDAY. EASTERLY WINDS  
INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE  
CENTER. A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITION WINDS AND ROUGH  
OCEAN SEAS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. THE WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO  
THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ROUGH OCEAN SEAS  
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA  
WATERS ON MONDAY.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH  
RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY RANGING FROM A HALF AN INCH TO THREE  
QUARTERS OF AN INCH.  
 

 
   
EQUIPMENT
 
 
NYC NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO-35 (162.55 MHZ) IS OFF THE  
AIR FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.  
 

 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...BC/FIG  
NEAR TERM...BC/JMC/PW  
SHORT TERM...BC  
LONG TERM...FIG  
AVIATION...MD/19  
MARINE...BC/FIG  
HYDROLOGY...BC/FIG  
EQUIPMENT...  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab NY Page
The Nexlab NJ Page
The Nexlab CT Page Main Text Page