250
FXUS61 KOKX 271738
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1238 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2009
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND
MOVE TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY NORTH INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
BACK EDGE OF RAIN ORIENTED N-S FROM FAIRFIELD COUNTY IN SOUTHERN
CT TO WESTERN SUFFOLK ON LONG ISLAND LATE THIS MORNING. EXPECT A
SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE BACK EDGE TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...
HOWEVER...A STRENGTHENING NW FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR DRYING AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES WITH THE BAND GRADUALLY BREAKING UP. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAINS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN LI AND SE CT THIS
AFT. STILL THOUGH...WITH THE UPPER TROF PIVOTING THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA...FELT IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO KEEP LOW CHC POPS TO
THE WEST OF THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN.
TEMPS WILL FLUCTUATE LITTLE THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S INLAND AND AROUND 50 ALONG THE COAST. THESE
ARE SEASONABLE.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS THE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS OFF THE ME COAST LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO BE LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS
WINDS INCREASE ALL THE WAY UP THE COLUMN. WE HAVE SEEN BEST MOMENTUM
TRANSFER OCCUR WHEN WINDS INTENSIFY ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER. FOR NOW
THOUGH...WILL BEGIN WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT...AND RUN IT THROUGH NOON
SATURDAY.
AS BOTH THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOWS EXIT THE AREA TOWARDS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...WESTERLY WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE HEIGHT AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS BEGIN TO
RELAX. COLDER AIR WILL ADVECT OVER THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY
SATURDAY...HOWEVER...EXPECT PRECIP TO HAVE ALREADY MOVED OUT OF THE
AREA FOR ANY WIDESPREAD SNOW. THAT SAID...HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD DROP
QUICK ENOUGH TO SEE A STRAY FLAKE MIXED IN BEFORE THE SHOWERS
COMPLETELY EXIT THE AREA. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATE NORMALS AS CLOUD COVER REMAINS ENTRENCHED
OVER THE AREA PRECLUDING ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES AS THE COOLER AIR
FILTERS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEMS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY LEAVING THE AREA
PRECIP FREE BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
SKIES TO BE SUNNY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CONUS WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO SWING
THROUGH MON/MON NITE TIME FRAME. WHILE MODELS ARE NOT IN COMPLETE
AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE FRONT...EXPECT IT TO HAVE CLEARED THE
AREA BY TUESDAY WITH RIDGING MOVING BACK OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL THROUGH MID WEEK.
PATTERN CONTINUES TO GET COMPLICATED AS NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS BEGIN TO TAKE AIM ON THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE SOLUTIONS
APPEAR TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT/OUT OF AGREEMENT FROM WHAT THEY
WERE JUST 24 HOURS AGO...SO WILL WAIT FOR BETTER RESOLUTION BEFORE
TACKLING THE EXTENDED ATTM.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LOW PRES SOUTH OF NANTUCKET WILL DEEPEN THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT TRACKS NORTH INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY TONIGHT.
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO VFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM W TO E.
BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION IS MOVING EASTBOUND MORE QUICKLY AND WILL
EXIT THE AREA BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WILL REMOVE -RA FOR ALL AREAS
EXCEPT FOR KGON. CAN'T RULE OUT AN INSTABILITY SHOWER OVER WESTERN
AREAS BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL BE BIGGEST IMPACT TO AREA TERMINALS LATER TODAY AS LOW
STRENGTHENS AND MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AT KEWR...EXPECT WINDS TO
SHIFT PRIMARILY LEFT OF 310 BY 20Z. GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR
25KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND LIKELY GUST OVER 30 KTS AFTER 00Z.
OVERNIGHT...WINDS COULD GUST NEAR 40KT BRIEFLY AT A FEW LOCATIONS.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. WIND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH.
TAF COMMENTS (FORECASTER INSIGHT ON TIMING, CONFIDENCE, TRENDS AND GROUND OPS)
KEWR...WINDS MAY STAY RIGHT OF OR ON 310 UNTIL 22Z-00Z.
KEWR HOURLY WIND FORECAST
ALL WIND DIRECTIONS ARE TRUE...ADD 13 DEGREES FOR MAGNETIC
27/16Z 32015G22KT
27/17Z 31017G24KT
27/18Z 31018G25KT
27/19Z 31018G25KT
27/20Z 31019G26KT
27/21Z 31019G26KT
27/22Z 30019G30KT
27/23Z 30019G30KT
28/00Z 30018G29KT
28/01Z 30018G29KT
28/02Z 30018G29KT
28/03Z 29018G29KT
KJFK...SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 18Z.
KLGA...SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 18Z.
KTEB...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY DELAYED +1/-1 AN HOUR.
KHPN...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY DELAYED +1/-1 AN HOUR.
KSWF...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS
ANTICIPATED.
KISP...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY DELAYED +1/-1 AN HOUR.
KBDR...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY DELAYED +1/-1 AN HOUR.
KGON...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY DELAYED +1/-1 AN HOUR.
OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SAT-SAT NIGHT...VFR. STRONG GUSTY W/NW WINDS.
SUN...VFR. DIMINISHING WINDS.
SUN NIGHT-MON NIGHT...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
TUE...VFR.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES JUST EAST OF THE
WATERS. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
GALES LIKELY BY LATE DAY...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE NEAR TERM.
GALES CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE LOW DEEPENS JUST OFF THE
MAINE COAST. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 50 KTS (STORM FORCE) LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT FEEL THESE WINDS WILL BE FEW
AND FAR BETWEEN. AS SUCH...GALE WARNING REMAINS.
WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. WINDS
BACK TO THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. WINDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SEAS BUILD TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND EXPECT ROUGH CONDITIONS IN STRONG
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALL WATERS. WESTERLY FETCH WILL RESULT IN MUCH
HIGHER SEAS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS. SEAS SUBSIDE SLOWLY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WILL FOLLOW WAVE WATCH III OUTPUT CLOSELY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM LESS THAN
1/10 INCH WEST OF NYC...TO UP TO 1/4 INCH OVER EASTERN LONG
ISLAND/CT. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
STRONG WEST WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEGATIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES OF
2 TO 3 FT LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
NOT TOO LOW. FEEL BEST CHANCE FOR LOW WATER/BLOW OUT TIDES
OCCURS SATURDAY AROUND LOW TIDE CYCLE...WHICH IS THIRD PERIOD. AS
SUCH...STILL SOME TIME TO CONSIDER LOW WATER ADVISORY. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST SATURDAY FOR
CTZ005>012.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST SATURDAY FOR
NYZ067>081.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST SATURDAY FOR
NJZ002>006-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ330-
335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
345-350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...AL
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...PW
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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