979  
FXUS61 KOKX 271754  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
154 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST OFFSHORE GOING  
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE VICINITY DURING  
WEDNESDAY WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THEN,  
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL  
MEANDER ABOUT THIS REGION INTO THE WEEKEND BRINGING AN EXTENDED  
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH  
NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
THE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND WITH THE  
WEAKENING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE AS IT FURTHER  
WEAKENS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF  
A GENERAL SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.  
 
THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK GOING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH  
DRY CONDITIONS STILL ANTICIPATED. CLOUDS ARE THINNING OUT FROM NW  
TO SE GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN WITH THE MORE  
WESTERLY FLOW.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL BUT PERHAPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE  
NORMAL FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH MORE SUN.  
 
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE OCEAN  
BEACHES FOR TODAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
 
 
LOOKS LIKE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NOT TOO FAR OFFSHORE  
TONIGHT AND MAY BEGIN TO DRIFT BACK TOWARDS THE CWA BY LATE. HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE AT NIGHT  
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS RIDGING WILL LIMIT MOISTURE TO THE LOW LEVELS.  
ISENTROPIC LIFT PUSHING IN FROM THE EAST COULD SUPPLY ENOUGH LIFT  
FOR LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WITH THE BEST OVERALL CHANCES APPEARING TO  
BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS TONIGHT, BUT  
ONLY OVER THE TWIN FORKS REGION...AND THEN EXPAND POPS WESTWARD  
DURING WENDESDAY, BUT CAPPING THEM AT CHANCE. TEMPERATURES ARE A  
BLEND OF SUPERBLEND, MAV AND MET MOS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
NWP GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL  
H5 PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE  
WEEKEND...THEN SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE NEXT  
TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW ENTERING THE PACNW ALTHOUGH THIS SHOULD NOT  
IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS WITH CUTOFF LOW PRES OVER THE OHIO  
VALLEY TRAPPED BETWEEN RIDGING TO THE EAST AND WEST. THIS WILL  
RESULT IN THE SYSTEM MEANDERING ABOUT THIS AREA INTO THE WEEKEND  
BEFORE THE RIDGE TO THE EAST FINALLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ALLOWING  
IT TO TRACK THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND EARLY  
NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE DECREASES IN THE FINER DETAILS...ALTHOUGH A  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE SFC LOW IN COMBINATION WITH  
STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN MUCH NEEDED OVERRUNNING  
RAINFALL WED NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. WHILE THE PERIODS OF HEAVIER  
RAINFALL REMAIN UNCERTAIN THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT THU NIGHT COULD  
BE ONE TIMEFRAME WHERE HEAVIER PCPN DOES OCCUR WITH MID LEVEL VORT  
ENERGY PASSING THROUGH.  
 
UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ABUNDANT  
CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS A TRANSITION TO MORE SHOWERY PCPN WITH MID  
LEVEL RIDGING TRYING TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST. MOISTURE TRANSPORT  
WILL STILL BE ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO UNDER THIS  
PATTERN. WARM FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH ON SUN AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS  
TO LIFT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALSO PUSH THE HEAVIEST  
RAINFALL TO THE NORTH AS WELL...RESULTING IN DECREASING POPS  
THROUGH MON.  
 
THE EC REMAINS THE WESTERN OUTLIER...HANGING TOUGH WITH THIS SOLN  
FOR THE PAST 3 RUNS...ALTHOUGH IT HAS MOVED SOMEWHAT CLOSER TO  
CONSENSUS. BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM...HEAVIEST RAINFALL  
IS EXPECTED TO FALL WEST OF THE AREA. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE  
INFORMATION ON EXPECTED TOTALS LOCALLY.  
 
REMOVED THUNDER AS THE LOWER HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LOW  
ARE TOO FAR WEST...THUS IT REMAINS TOO WARM ALOFT FOR ANY ELEVATED  
INSTABILITY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
VFR AT MOST TERMINALS BUT POCKETS OF MVFR REMAIN ESPECIALLY KISP  
AND KGON. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THIS  
AFTERNOON BUT CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST.  
 
LIGHT WIND MAINLY W 10 KT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BRIEFLY BECOME  
S-SW AROUND CITY TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS  
EVENING BEFORE BECOMING NE AROUND 5 KT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY  
MIDDAY...NE WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KT AND BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES  
NEAR 20-25 KT.  
 
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...  
 
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,  
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90  
 
KJFK TAF COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE TO ADJUST WIND DIRECTION  
AND/OR CIGS.  
 
KLGA TAF COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE TO ADJUST WIND DIRECTION  
AND/OR CIGS.  
 
KEWR TAF COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE TO ADJUST WIND DIRECTION  
AND/OR CIGS.  
 
KTEB TAF COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE TO ADJUST WIND DIRECTION  
AND/OR CIGS.  
 
KHPN TAF COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE TO ADJUST WIND DIRECTION  
AND/OR CIGS.  
 
KISP TAF COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE TO ADJUST WIND DIRECTION  
AND/OR CIGS.  
   
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
 
   
WED
 
BECOMING MVFR LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. NE GUSTS TO 25 KT  
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.   
THU-SAT
 
IFR/MVFR IN SHOWERS. NE WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS  
25-30 KT POSSIBLE THU-FRI.   
SUN
 
MAINLY VFR BUT MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. N WINDS  
10-20 KT.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND MOVE OUT OF THE OCEAN ZONES EAST  
OF MORICHES INLET INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  
 
CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS HAVE LOWERED WITH REGARDS TO WINDS AND  
SEAS. KEPT SCA GOING FOR OCEAN EAST OF MORICHES INLET BUT ONLY DUE  
TO RESIDUAL HIGHER SEAS FOR THE REST OF TODAY. OTHERWISE, ALL  
OTHER WATERS ARE BELOW SCA CRITERIA. THE SCA CONDITIONS ON THE  
EASTERN OCEAN MAY END UP LOWERING SOONER THAN FORECAST.  
 
MAINLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN LOOK TO PREVAIL TONIGHT, THEN THE  
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING WINDS.  
WILL PROBABLY NEED ANOTHER SCA FOR SOME OF THE WATERS, BUT WITH  
THE CURRENT HEADLINE UP, WILL WAIT BEFORE POSTING ANY HEADLINES  
FOR THAT PERIOD.  
 
SCA CONDITIONS ALL WATERS WED NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THU NIGHT  
DUE TO A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS. THERE STILL  
REMAINS A LOW PROBABILITY OF MARGINAL GALE FORCE GUSTS DURING THIS  
TIME...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION IN THE HWO. IT MAY ONLY BE  
CONFINED TO THE OCEAN WATERS HOWEVER. THE GFS IS INDICATING GUSTS  
INTO THE 40'S BUT FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE. NAM LOOKS MORE  
REASONABLE...BUT PERHAPS A TAD LIGHT. HAVE USED A COMPROMISE OF  
THE 2 WEIGHTED MORE TOWARDS THE NAM.  
 
WINDS SUBSIDE ON FRI AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS...ALTHOUGH SEAS ON  
THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...POSSIBLY INTO SAT.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND ANY RAIN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL  
BE LIGHT WITH RAINFALL TOTALS LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.  
 
THE PROXIMITY OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK LOOKS TO  
BE TOO FAR WEST AT THE CURRENT TIME FOR THE LOCAL AREA TO FALL IN  
THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF. CURRENTLY BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 1/2 INCHES OF  
RAINFALL IS FORECAST BETWEEN WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT. THIS IS NOT  
EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
A PERSISTENT MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW DURING MID TO LATE WEEK MAY  
COMBINE WITH INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ASSOCIATED WITH  
THE NEW MOON ON FRIDAY TO CAUSE MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE COASTAL  
FLOODING LATE THIS WEEK.  
 

 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS  
EVENING FOR ANZ350.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...JC/24  
NEAR TERM...JC/JM  
SHORT TERM...JC  
LONG TERM...24  
AVIATION...IRD  
MARINE...JC/24/JM  
HYDROLOGY...JC/24  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab NY Page
The Nexlab NJ Page
The Nexlab CT Page Main Text Page