761
FXUS61 KOKX 190541
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
141 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT, WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHEAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH POTENTIAL OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
GUSTY S WINDS DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING, BUT AN OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT, OTHERWISE, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER SOUTHEAST
OFFSHORE AND A LOW TRACKING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THE ORIENTATION
OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT THE WINDS TO
MORE OF A SW/WSW DIRECTION. THE AREA WILL BECOME WARM SECTORED
OVERNIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT PASSING TO THE NORTH. WITH SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND WINDS STAYING UP SOME, TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO DROP TOO MUCH. LOWS FROM NYC AND NORTH AND
WEST WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH LONG ISLAND
AND CT MAINLY IN THE LOWER 50S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
TOWARDS DAYBREAK, SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE TOP OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS OVERHEAD. SOME CAMS ARE HINTING AT
SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THINKING THE 12Z HRRR IS WAY
TOO AGGRESSIVE AND WENT MORE IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ARW FOR POPS
SATURDAY MORNING.
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST
AND DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, DEEP
SW/W FLOW THROUGH THE LAYER WILL HELP THE AREA WARM UP. THE NBM
DETERMINISTIC TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND UPWARD WHILE
STILL FALLING AT OR BELOW THE NBM25TH PERCENTILE FOR MAXT. GIVEN THE
ANOMALOUS WARM AIR MASS AND THE UPWARD TRENDING NBM HAVE BUMPED UP
MAXTS A FEW DEGREES. USED A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, THE
NBM90TH, THE HRRR AND BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE. ONE CONCERN THOUGH IS
THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE AROUND. THIS MAY CAUSE
HIGHS TO END UP A FEW DEGREES LOW THAN FORECAST.
WITH THE WARM, MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, THE AREA LOOKS
TO BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE. MLCAPE VALUES LOOK TO MAX OUT AROUND
500J/KG, MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO FIRE UP ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT/PRE FRONTAL TROUGH AND
MOVE INTO OUR AREA. THE ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AREA AROUND 5 TO 7 PM. THE THINKING RIGHT NOW IS ANY
OF THIS EARLIER ACTIVITY WOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE LIGHTING WITH SOME
OF THE CAPE PROFILE GETTING INTO THE -10 TO -20 LAYER. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A DECREASE IN CAPE AT THIS LEVEL AFTER 8PM, SO WENT
ONLY SHOWERS AFTER THAT. AT THIS TIME, NO ORGANIZED SEVERE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN THROUGH SUNDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS FILTERS IN
AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK DOWN IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST THINKING IN
THE LONG TERM AND HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST/NBM.
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY
SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY. A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO OUR NORTH EARLY
TUESDAY WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PASSAGE LIKELY OCCURRING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER SOUTHEAST
CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY LEAVING BEHIND A SW FLOW ALOFT.
THERE WERE SOME HINTS AT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FOR THURSDAY IN PREVIOUS
MODEL CYCLES. HOWEVER, THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TOWARDS
RIDGING, WHICH POTENTIALLY COULD LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER, MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS OCCURRING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
APPEARS TO HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIFT TO WORK WITH SO IT LIKELY
COMES THROUGH DRY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE LEFT IN LOW
PROBABILITIES (20-30 PERCENT) THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, CONSISTENT
WITH THE NBM. HOWEVER, IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THESE PROBABILITIES ARE
ADJUSTED DOWN IF RIDGING ENDS UP PERSISTING FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK, SIMILAR TO MUCH OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST FOR THIS PERIOD
DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW FROM RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE. HIGHS WILL BE A
BIT BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER
70S, WARMEST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY, AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MAINLY A VFR FORECAST OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS, MAINLY AFTER 22Z SATURDAY. PROB30 WAS USED TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS CHANCE. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO MENTION
THUNDER, BUT BEST CHANCE WOULD BE AT KSWF.
GUSTS HAVE DROPPED OFF QUITE A BIT, HOWEVER OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
20 KT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS. SW LLWS 40-50KT AT 2KFT THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WIND WILL THEN RAMP BACK UP AFTER 12Z, BECOMING WSW-SW AND
INCREASING TO 12-20KT G22-30KT BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT TO THE W THEN NW WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT AT KJFK POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR. WSW G25-30KT EARLY. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING, POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.
SUNDAY: VFR. NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE.
MONDAY: VFR, THEN SUB VFR POSSIBLE AT NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY: BECOMING VFR WITH W WINDS.
WEDNESDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT ON ALL WATERS TONIGHT EXCEPT
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUND AND PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS.
ONCE NEARSHORE GUSTS PICK UP SATURDAY MORNING THEN THOSE AREAS
WILL BE ADDED TO THE ADVISORY. ADDITIONALLY, ALL NON-OCEAN
WATERS TONIGHT COULD SEE A LULL IN WIND GUSTS.
SCA CONDITIONS GRADUALLY LOWER SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME 5-7FT
SEAS LINGERING IN THE OCEAN ZONES. CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER
ALTHOUGH STILL WINDY SATURDAY, RH WILL BE HIGHER SO NOT EXPECTING
ANY HEADLINES. CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION HANDLING ANY POTENTIAL
IGNITION SOURCES, INCLUDING MACHINERY, CIGARETTES, AND MATCHES.
ANY FIRES THAT IGNITE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD QUICKLY.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ331-332-340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-
338-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...DS/JT
NEAR TERM...DS/JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...DS/JT
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...DS/JT
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