268
FXUS61 KOKX 080134
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
834 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LARGELY BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE TRI-STATE SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL DAYS OF
MILDER WEATHER. THE NEXT CHANCE OF WET WEATHER WILL BE WITH A COLD
FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
A WEAK TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS
DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SCT-
BKN HIGH BASED CU TRACKING MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT MUCH ELSE. BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR
SEASONABLE (LOWER 40S). ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEYS
THOUGH...DECOUPLING WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDS AND TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK TROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS...COMBINED WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH A DEVELOPING RIDGE
WILL RESULT IN A MILD AND DRY START TO THE WEEK. 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES WARM BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...WHICH WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S AND
PERHAPS LOW 70S IN SOME LOCALES. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
SHOW A WARMING TREND EVEN WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES. EXPECT LOWS BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY MORNING TO RANGE IN THE
40S AND 50S...A SOLID 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND EASILY 20
DEGREES WARMER THAN OBSERVED SAT MORNING LOWS.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON TUESDAY...WITH GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON A SLOWER TIMING TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. WILL
KEEP THE FRONT TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY...WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS BY TUE MORNING...AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS BY
LATE IN THE DAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE GFS HAS
BEEN SLOWING DOWN OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...WITH BOTH THE 06Z/07 AND
12Z/07 RUNS DEVELOPING THE REMNANTS OF IDA INTO A COASTAL STORM OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z WED. THE 00Z/07 AND 12Z/07 GEM RUNS
ALSO DEVELOP A COASTAL STORM...BUT THE HIGH OVER THE NE IS FURTHER N
ON THE 12Z RUN WITH ITS SOLN SIMILAR TO THE GFS...BUT 12 HOURS
LATER. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER PATTERN AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD AND HAS THE SUPPORT OF MANY OF THE ENS
MEMBERS...THEREFORE HAVE STEERED AWAY FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND
GEM FOR NOW.
COLD FROPA TUE EVE...WITH STRONG CAA AT NIGHT. WINDS COULD REMAIN
GUSTY ON WED WITH TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN THROUGH THU...THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THU
NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH...GIVING WAY TO A WEAK TROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN SUNDAY.
MODERATE SSW FLOW ALONG COAST THROUGH AROUND 06-08Z TONIGHT AHEAD
OF TROUGH.
WINDS VEER TO THE WEST AND LIGHTEN FURTHER TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
VFR WITH FEW TO SCT MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT GRADIENT SUN AFTERNOON AND UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPS MAY
ALLOW FOR WEAK SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ALONG COASTAL TERMINALS.
PERHAPS NE SOUND BREEZE AT KLGA.
OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THU...
SUN NIGHT-TUE...VFR.
TUE NIGHT-WED...GUSTY NW-N WINDS. CHANCE OF SUB-VFR TUE NIGHT.
THU...VFR WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK S OF THE AREA TONIGHT...PLACING THE AREA
IN A ZONE OF INCREASED SW FLOW BETWEEN THE HIGH AND AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. A 30-35 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL PASS OVER THE
WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN
OVERNIGHT. LINGERING 5-FT SEAS POSSIBLY HOLDING OVER INTO THE
EARLY DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY. OCCASIONAL SCA GUSTS ACROSS REST
OF THE WATERS.
WINDS WILL SLACKEN ON SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA...
WITH QUIET CONDITIONS THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS.
SCA POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS TUE NIGHT IN STRONG CAA BEHIND
FROPA...CONTINUING INTO WED NIGHT AS A TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS
THE AREA. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE
AREA.
HYDROLOGY
A CDFNT MAY BRING PCPN TO THE CWA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
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