393  
FGUS74 KMAF 181950  
ESFMAF  
190750-  
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX  
250 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017  
 
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE  
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE COLORADO AND PECOS RIVER BASINS IN WEST  
TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MIDLAND, TEXAS HAS  
IMPLEMENTED THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR  
THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN IN WEST TEXAS. AHPS ENABLES THE NATIONAL  
WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS. THIS  
SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.  
 
IN THE TABLE BELOW, THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE  
NEXT 90 DAYS. EXAMPLE: THE COLORADO RIVER AT COLORADO CITY HAS A  
FLOOD STAGE OF 15.0 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THE  
COLORADO CITY FORECAST POINT WILL NOT RISE ABOVE 9.2 FEET DURING THE  
NEXT 90 DAYS.  
 
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID [ 05/17/2017 - 08/15/2017 ]  
 
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%  
-------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---  
COLORADO RIVER  
COLORADO CITY 15.0 5.0 6.2 7.6 8.8 9.2 9.9 11.1 11.9 14.5  
DEEP CREEK  
DUNN 1W 14.0 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.3 5.5 6.2 6.7 7.2  
BEALS CREEK  
WESTBROOK 11S 22.5 3.6 3.9 4.1 5.1 6.0 7.1 7.9 8.9 10.6  
PECOS RIVER  
ARTESIA 6E 12.5 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.5 8.5 8.5 9.9  
CARLSBAD 9NW 20.0 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 3.3 6.4  
CARLSBAD 2E 14.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.1 2.1 5.1  
MALAGA 3ESE 30.0 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.2 4.9 7.5  
MALAGA 10S 20.0 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 4.1 4.9 5.3 7.4  
SHEFFIELD 3ESE 28.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.1  
RIO PENASCO  
DAYTON 2WNW 20.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.6  
FOURMILE DRAW  
LAKEWOOD 4NNW 12.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 6.1  
ROCKY ARROYO  
LAKEWOOD 7S 12.0 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 5.5 7.8  
DARK CANYON  
CARLSBAD 15.0 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 6.2 8.8  
BLACK RIVER  
MALAGA 5W 18.0 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 2.7  
DELAWARE RIVER  
RED BLUFF 11NW 26.0 3.7 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 5.0  
INDEPENDENCE CREEK  
SHEFFIELD 18SSE 11.0 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.1 4.0 4.7 7.3 10.0  
 
LAKE JB THOMAS  
90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%  
--- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---  
2244.9 2244.9 2244.9 2244.9 2244.9 2244.9 2245.0 2245.3 2246.7  
 
LAKE COLORADO CITY  
90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%  
--- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---  
2020.6 2021.7 2023.6 2027.3 2031.4 2032.7 2035.6 2039.6 2042.3  
 
CHAMPION CREEK RESERVOIR  
90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%  
--- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---  
2060.1 2060.1 2060.1 2060.1 2060.1 2060.1 2060.3 2060.5 2061.7  
 
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE  
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL  
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE INTO  
ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE. BY  
PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS, THE LEVEL  
OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE  
DETERMINED.  
 
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE  
INTERNET AT:  
 
HTTP://AHPS.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO=MAF  
 
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD  
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.  
 

 
 
44  
 
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