047  
FNUS74 KEPZ 252329  
FWSEPZ  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR BACA FIRE...USFS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SANTA TERESA NM/EL PASO TX  
529 PM MDT THU MAY 25 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2000 MDT ON MAY 25.  
 
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE EL PASO  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.  
   
..RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
 
   
..RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY
 
 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT UNTIL 9 PM MDT.  
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY DECREASE ACROSS THE BURN AREA.  
LATE IN THE MORNING TOMORROW WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME STRONG.  
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH POOR  
RECOVERIES TOMORROW. AS A RESULT, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS  
WILL CONTINUE AND A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM NOON  
UNTIL 9 PM MDT FRIDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AND  
SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK SHOWER  
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 45.  
MAX HUMIDITY........28 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........BREEZY. WEST WINDS 22 TO 28 MPH WITH GUSTS TO  
AROUND 55 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 8 TO 13 MPH  
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING  
AND OVERNIGHT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......11800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0 FT AGL AFTER  
MIDNIGHT.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 32 TO 33 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 7 TO 8 MPH  
EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (364400 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR  
(0 KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 6 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MDT) 8 PM MIDNGT 4 AM  
SKY (%).........9 6 6  
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0  
LAL.............1 1 1  
TEMP............63 52 46  
RH..............11 20 27  
20 FT WIND......W 20G40 W 10G20 SW 7G15  
MIX HGT (FT)....11800 BLW100 BLW100  
TRANSPORT WIND..W 20 SW 9 SW 7  
HAINES INDEX....5 4 3  
VENT RATE.......EXNT POOR POOR  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 68.  
MIN HUMIDITY........8 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 12 TO 17 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 35  
MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......5600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 11600 FT AGL IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 11 TO 12 MPH INCREASING TO WEST 34 TO 35  
MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (157300 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO  
EXCELLENT (333000 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 6 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 10 AM 2 PM  
SKY (%).........3 3 6  
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0  
LAL.............1 1 1  
TEMP............45 59 68  
RH..............28 15 9  
20 FT WIND......SW 8G15 SW 10G20 SW 14G30  
MIX HGT (FT)....5600 5600 11600  
TRANSPORT WIND..S 8 SW 35 W 33  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 6  
VENT RATE.......EXNT EXNT EXNT  
 

 
FORECASTER...PAZOS  
REQUESTED BY...FRANCESCA CHAVEZ  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 1709658.7/EPZ  
.EMAIL FECHAVEZ@FS.FED.US  
 
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