521  
FNUS74 KEPZ 091445  
FWSEPZ  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR BLACK DEER PILES RX...GILA NATIONAL FOREST  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SANTA TERESA NM/EL PASO TX  
845 AM MDT THU AUG 9 2018  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 MDT ON AUGUST 09.  
 
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE EL PASO  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
THE AREA WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE TODAY BUT STILL  
A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS  
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL LIKELY BE CLOSE  
TO YESTERDAY WITH THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HERE EARLY, BUT  
WITH THE MOISTURE IN PLACE AND LIKELY MORE CLOUDS, EXPECT  
TEMPERATURES TO DROP ABOUT 6 TO 8 DEGREES FOR FRIDAY WITH  
HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. DRIER AIR WILL ALREADY BE  
RETURNING OVER THE AREA BY SATURDAY.  
 
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) BECOMING MOSTLY  
CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200, THEN 4.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 85.  
MIN HUMIDITY........26 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 3 TO 8 MPH IN THE  
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6400 FT AGL IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8 TO 9 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR(7500-10000 KNOT-FT) IMPROVING TO GOOD (61700 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MDT) 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM  
SKY (%).........70 72 72 72  
WEATHER COV.....S CHNC SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........S CHNC SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 30 40 50  
LAL.............2 3 4 5  
TEMP............77 83 80 70  
RH..............43 29 38 53  
20 FT WIND......SW 4 SW 6 SW 8 SW 8  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 12 14  
MIX HGT (FT)....900 6400 6400 6400  
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 3 SW 5 SW 8 W 10  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 4 3  
VENT RATE.......POOR GOOD GOOD GOOD  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY BEFORE 2100.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.  
LAL.................5.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 52.  
MAX HUMIDITY........90 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH BECOMING LIGHT LATE  
IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED  
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........81 81 81 81 81 81  
WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD ISOLD ISOLD  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD ISOLD ISOLD  
CHC OF PCPN (%).50 50 40 30 20 10  
LAL.............5 5 4 3 2 2  
TEMP............69 66 62 60 55 53  
RH..............60 67 70 75 80 87  
20 FT WIND......W 7 NE 6 SE 5 W 3 W 3 SW 2  
20 FT WIND GUST.13 11 8 6 6 6  
HAINES INDEX....2 3 3 3 3 3  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING, THEN  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.  
LAL.................3 UNTIL 1200, THEN 5.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77.  
MIN HUMIDITY........39 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........VARIABLE WINDS UNDER 5 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7000 FT AGL IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 4 TO 5  
MPH LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN SHIFTING TO THE  
SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1900 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM  
SKY (%).........78 78 88 88  
WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD SCTTRD LIKELY NUMRUS  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........SCTTRD SCTTRD LIKELY NUMRUS  
CHC OF PCPN (%).30 30 60 80  
LAL.............3 3 5 5  
TEMP............55 65 76 75  
RH..............86 58 40 43  
20 FT WIND......SW 2G6 W 2G6 S 3G6 SW 6G10  
MIX HGT (FT)....300 300 7000 7000  
TRANSPORT WIND..E 7 S 5 NW 2 NW 5  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3  
VENT RATE.......POOR POOR POOR POOR  
 

 
FORECASTER...GRZYWACZ  
REQUESTED BY...SILVER CITY INTERAGENCY DISPATCH CENTER  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1814151.3/EPZ  
.DELDT 08/09/18  
.EMAIL NMSDC@FS.FED.US  
 
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