722  
FNUS74 KEPZ 151624  
FWSEPZ  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR WET BURNT RX...USFS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SANTA TERESA NM/EL PASO TX  
924 AM MST WED NOV 15 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1600 MST ON NOVEMBER 15.  
 
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE EL PASO  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF COOLING  
TO THE AREA, BUT HIGHS WILL STILL BE RUNNING AROUND 8 TO 10  
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LIGHTER WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIMIT  
VENT RATES, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SACRAMENTO  
MOUNTAINS TODAY, THEN MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS ON THURSDAY. CONDITIONS  
WILL IMPROVE MARKEDLY ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL ROCKIES, BRINGING BREEZY WEST WINDS TO THE AREA FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL  
FOR SATURDAY.  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 58 TO 63.  
MIN HUMIDITY........20-25 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000-2400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 7 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (20700 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MST) 4 PM  
SKY (%).........28  
WEATHER COV.....NONE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE  
TSTM COV........NONE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0  
LAL.............1  
TEMP............51  
RH..............32  
20 FT WIND......SE 6  
20 FT WIND GUST.10  
MIX HGT (FT)....2400  
TRANSPORT WIND..SE 5  
HAINES INDEX....3  
VENT RATE.......POOR  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (25-35 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 35.  
MAX HUMIDITY........64 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20  
MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 10 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (600 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........38 38 38 31 31 31  
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............40 40 39 36 35 38  
RH..............50 52 54 61 64 57  
20 FT WIND......S 6 S 6 SW 6 SW 6 W 7 W 9  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 15 20  
MIX HGT (FT)....700 700 700 100 100 100  
TRANSPORT WIND..S 5 SW 6 SW 6 SW 6 W 7 W 9  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3  
VENT RATE.......POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 66.  
MIN HUMIDITY........21 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 8 TO 10 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700-5300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 17 TO 18 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD TO VERY GOOD (62100-100100 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MST) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM  
SKY (%).........18 18 13 13  
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0  
LAL.............1 1 1 1  
TEMP............38 51 65 62  
RH..............57 34 22 24  
20 FT WIND......W 9G20 W 9G20 W 10G20 W 9G20  
MIX HGT (FT)....3700 3700 5300 5300  
TRANSPORT WIND..W 9 W 13 W 22 W 20  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3  
VENT RATE.......GOOD GOOD VYGD VYGD  
 

 
FORECASTER...NOVLAN  
REQUESTED BY...CHAVEZ  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1718711.3/EPZ  
.EMAIL TERALOWE@FS.FED.US  
 
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