279  
FNUS74 KEPZ 201824  
FWSEPZ  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR SAPILLO FIRE...GILA NATIONAL FOREST  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SANTA TERESA NM/EL PASO TX  
1224 PM MDT THU JUL 20 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1300 MDT ON JULY 20.  
 
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE EL PASO  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
WITH MONSOONAL FLOW ESTABLISHED, DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE  
TO HELP GENERATE DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH  
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATER  
NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIP WILL BE BACKING  
OFF JUST A BIT. MEANWHILE, SLOW MOVING STORMS COULD LEAD TO  
LOCALIZED FLOODING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. LIKEWISE, GUSTY  
AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH STORMS OVER OR CLOSE TO THE FIRE  
AREA.  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). NUMEROUS SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200, THEN 5.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 80.  
MIN HUMIDITY........42 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE  
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......6200-7400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 11 TO 12 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD (48000-69600 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MDT) 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM  
SKY (%).........66 66 66  
WEATHER COV.....NUMRUS NUMRUS NUMRUS  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........NUMRUS NUMRUS NUMRUS  
CHC OF PCPN (%).60 60 60  
LAL.............5 5 5  
TEMP............73 79 77  
RH..............54 48 50  
20 FT WIND......S 6 S 6 S 6  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10  
MIX HGT (FT)....7400 7400 7400  
TRANSPORT WIND..S 9 S 10 S 12  
HAINES INDEX....2 2 2  
VENT RATE.......GOOD GOOD GOOD  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.  
LAL.................4 UNTIL 2400, THEN 3.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 54.  
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......6600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1400 FT AGL AFTER  
MIDNIGHT.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 2 TO 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST  
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (65500 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR (1400  
KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........73 73 73 58 58 58  
WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD  
CHC OF PCPN (%).50 50 50 30 30 30  
LAL.............5 5 5 3 3 3  
TEMP............77 71 65 62 59 58  
RH..............50 61 75 84 93 96  
20 FT WIND......S 7 S 4 S 1 S 1 NW 0 N 1  
20 FT WIND GUST.15 5  
MIX HGT (FT)....6600 6600 6600 1400 1400 1400  
TRANSPORT WIND..S 12 S 9 S 5 S 1 E 2 NE 3  
HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 2 2  
VENT RATE.......GOOD GOOD GOOD POOR POOR POOR  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING, THEN  
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.  
LAL.................4 UNTIL 1200, THEN 5.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 87.  
MIN HUMIDITY........37 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH LATE  
IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......6700-7300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 2 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST  
EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (36600-47800 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM  
SKY (%).........39 39 72 72  
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE NUMRUS NUMRUS  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........CHANCE CHANCE NUMRUS NUMRUS  
CHC OF PCPN (%).30 30 60 60  
LAL.............4 4 5 5  
TEMP............55 70 84 83  
RH..............100 63 40 41  
20 FT WIND......NE 2G5 SE 2G5 S 6G10 S 7G15  
MIX HGT (FT)....6700 6700 7300 7300  
TRANSPORT WIND..NE 2 S 5 S 7 S 8  
HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2  
VENT RATE.......POOR POOR FAIR FAIR  
 

 
FORECASTER...LANEY  
REQUESTED BY...SILVER CITY INTERAGENCY DISPATCH  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 1713065.0/EPZ  
.EMAIL NMSDC@FS.FED.US  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TX Page
The Nexlab NM Page Main Text Page