561  
FNUS74 KEPZ 220522  
FWSEPZ  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR BUZZARD FIRE...GILA NATIONAL FOREST  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SANTA TERESA NM/EL PASO TX  
1122 PM MDT THU JUN 21 2018  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0500 MDT ON JUNE 22.  
 
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE EL PASO  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
FRIDAY IN A NUTSHELL WILL BE HOT, DRY, AND INCREASINGLY BREEZY.  
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT,  
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK  
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA, WHICH WILL  
HELP ENHANCE WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS. A FEW GUSTS IN THE 20  
TO 25 MPH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE 20-FOOT LEVEL, BUT WILL  
FALL JUST SHORT OF RED FLAG CRITERIA. STEEP LAPSE RATES  
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL YIELD A HAINES INDEX OF 6, WHILE SURFACE  
RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.  
 
EXPECT VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES  
DROPPING JUST A COUPLE DEGREES AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BREAK  
DOWN.  
 

 
 
...PERCENTAGES SHOWN IN THE SKY/WEATHER PORTION REFLECT  
SKY COVER AMOUNT...  
 
...MEAN ELEVATIONS USED TO OBTAIN MIXING HEIGHTS AS FOLLOWS:  
ZONE 110 - RESERVE (5900 FT)  
ZONE 111 - DEMING (4300 FT)  
ZONE 112 - LAS CRUCES(3900 FT)  
ZONE 113 - RUIDOSO (6900 FT)  
 
VENTILATION CATEGORIES ARE DETERMINED BY CRITERIA ESTABLISHED  
BY THE STATE OF NEW MEXICO.  
 
   
REST OF TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-5 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61.  
MAX HUMIDITY........25 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 2 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MDT) 5 AM  
SKY (%).........2  
WEATHER COV.....NONE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE  
TSTM COV........NONE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0  
LAL.............1  
TEMP............62  
RH..............24  
20 FT WIND......NW 3  
20 FT WIND GUST.5  
MIX HGT (FT)....BLW100  
TRANSPORT WIND..N 2  
HAINES INDEX....5  
VENT RATE.......POOR  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 93.  
MIN HUMIDITY........5 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH  
GUSTS TO AROUND 24 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10000 FT AGL IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 18 TO 19 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO VERY GOOD (300-108200 KNOT-FT)  
INCREASING TO VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT  
(149400-199100 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........5 TO 6 OR OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........2 2 2 7 7 7  
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............61 69 83 89 93 92  
RH..............25 18 10 7 6 5  
20 FT WIND......NW 3 W 5 W 7 W 9 W 12 W 15  
20 FT WIND GUST.5 7 12 14 19 24  
MIX HGT (FT)....100 100 100 10000 10000 10000  
TRANSPORT WIND..N 2 NW 7 NW 13 W 17 W 20 W 18  
HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 6 6 6  
VENT RATE.......VYGD VYGD VYGD EXNT EXNT EXNT  
   
FRIDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61.  
MAX HUMIDITY........19 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH WITH GUSTS TO  
AROUND 22 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 2 TO 3 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO VERY GOOD (0-149200 KNOT-FT) DECREASING  
TO POOR (0 KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........5 TO 6 OR OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM  
SKY (%).........15 15 10 10  
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0  
LAL.............1 1 1 1  
TEMP............91 77 71 64  
RH..............5 9 12 17  
20 FT WIND......W 14G22 W 8G13 W 5G7 NW 5G7  
MIX HGT (FT)....BLW100 BLW100 BLW100 BLW100  
TRANSPORT WIND..W 15 W 6 W 3 NW 2  
HAINES INDEX....6 6 6 5  
VENT RATE.......VYGD VYGD POOR POOR  
 

 
FORECASTER...HARDIMAN  
REQUESTED BY...TAVIS CAMPBELL  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 1811639.4/EPZ  
.DELDT 06/22/18  
.EMAIL CAMPBELLTAVIS@GMAIL.COM  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TX Page
The Nexlab NM Page Main Text Page