718  
FXUS64 KEPZ 271051  
AFDEPZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM  
451 AM MDT SAT MAY 27 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HOT, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON  
ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. WINDS WILL  
GUST IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE, WHICH SHOULD LIFT UP A LIGHT DUSTY  
HAZE. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER  
AND MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE LOWLAND DESERTS. A WEAKENING BACK DOOR  
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER  
TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY WITH "BREEZY TO WINDY" CONDITIONS IS ON  
TAP FOR TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER UTAH GRAZES  
BY TO OUR NORTH. DEEP MIXING TO ~600 MB WILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS IN  
THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE -- BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, AND HIGHEST  
ALONG EAST-FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES.  
 
A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN SLOPES OF  
THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, REACHING THE  
AZ/NM BORDER BY MIDDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WEST-  
FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES (INCLUDING THE FRANKLINS), BUT EXPECT  
STRONGER WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET MAX OF 35-40 KNOTS  
DEVELOPS ALONG THE US/MEXICO BORDER. GUSTS IN THE 40-45 MPH RANGE  
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN FAVORED AREAS WEST OF THE FRANKLIN, HUECO,  
ORGAN, AND FLORIDA MOUNTAINS.  
 
EARLIER (00Z) MODEL RUNS WERE ATTEMPTING TO PRODUCE LIGHT QPF  
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTOS SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT THIS  
APPEARS TO BE ERRONEOUS GIVEN VERY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER ON THOSE  
SAME MODEL'S SOUNDINGS. INSTEAD EXPECT INCREASING IN LOW CLOUDS  
BANKED UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY  
MORNING.  
 
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO  
SETUP A MORE ACTIVE/WETTER PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK. A WEAK UPPER  
LEVEL "DIRTY RIDGE" (RIDGE WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES/VORT MAXES  
STILL PASSING THROUGH) WILL BE IN PLACE, KEEPING WINDS ALOFT  
RELATIVELY LIGHT. THIS WILL REDUCE BULK SHEAR AND FAVOR SUB-SEVERE  
STORMS AND LESS ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THIS MAKES IT A LITTLE  
TOUGH TO REALLY RAMP UP THE POPS OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN,  
BUT IT APPEARS THAT AREAS WEST OF THE DIVIDE WILL BE FAVORED  
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTRUSION  
STARTS TO RETREAT. DRY LIGHTING STRIKES MAY BE A CONCERN OVER THE  
GILA, ESPECIALLY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO DECREASE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION...VALID 27/12Z-28/12Z
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL  
TODAY WITH JUST LIGHT DUST EXPECTED AS WEST WINDS INCREASE TO  
AROUND 20-25 KNOTS (GUSTS 30-40 KNOTS). BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL  
PUSH INTO PARTS OF OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES JUST BEFORE 12Z  
SUNDAY MORNING, WITH NE TO E WINDS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE  
WEST OF AREA MOUNTAIN RANGES.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY, BUT 20-FOOT WINDS WILL  
STAY JUST BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA, THOUGH IT WILL BE VERY CLOSE  
FOR A COUPLE HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON FOR A FEW SPOTS ALONG EAST-  
FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES. A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING  
INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ISOLATED TO  
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A DAILY THREAT BEGINNING MONDAY.  
WETTING RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ENHANCED EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL  
DIVIDE. HEADING INTO MID-WEEK, THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN  
TO PULL OUT OF SW NEW MEXICO, POTENTIALLY INCREASING THE RISK OF  
DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE GILA.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
EL PASO 94 66 89 67 / 0 0 0 0  
SIERRA BLANCA 92 64 84 64 / 0 0 0 10  
LAS CRUCES 91 57 88 61 / 0 0 0 0  
ALAMOGORDO 90 53 85 57 / 0 0 0 0  
CLOUDCROFT 66 38 63 42 / 0 0 0 0  
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 89 57 86 59 / 0 0 0 0  
SILVER CITY 82 49 84 53 / 0 0 0 0  
DEMING 91 52 90 59 / 0 0 0 0  
LORDSBURG 89 53 91 60 / 0 0 0 0  
WEST EL PASO METRO 92 63 87 67 / 0 0 0 0  
DELL CITY 95 57 86 57 / 0 0 0 0  
FORT HANCOCK 97 66 89 66 / 0 0 0 0  
LOMA LINDA 88 59 82 60 / 0 0 0 0  
FABENS 95 64 89 66 / 0 0 0 0  
SANTA TERESA 92 61 88 64 / 0 0 0 0  
WHITE SANDS HQ 91 61 86 62 / 0 0 0 0  
JORNADA RANGE 90 51 87 57 / 0 0 0 0  
HATCH 92 53 91 57 / 0 0 0 0  
COLUMBUS 93 56 91 62 / 0 0 0 0  
OROGRANDE 91 59 85 63 / 0 0 0 0  
MAYHILL 78 43 70 45 / 0 0 0 0  
MESCALERO 76 43 73 46 / 0 0 0 0  
TIMBERON 75 43 72 45 / 0 0 0 0  
WINSTON 82 43 80 45 / 0 0 0 0  
HILLSBORO 87 51 86 53 / 0 0 0 0  
SPACEPORT 91 51 87 54 / 0 0 0 0  
LAKE ROBERTS 79 39 84 41 / 0 0 0 10  
HURLEY 83 45 84 50 / 0 0 0 0  
CLIFF 86 45 90 50 / 0 0 0 0  
MULE CREEK 83 43 89 49 / 0 0 0 0  
FAYWOOD 85 49 86 53 / 0 0 0 0  
ANIMAS 91 54 93 59 / 0 0 0 0  
HACHITA 91 53 92 59 / 0 0 0 0  
ANTELOPE WELLS 91 55 94 58 / 0 0 0 0  
CLOVERDALE 86 53 91 55 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NM...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
25-HARDIMAN  
 
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