682
FXUS64 KEPZ 202207
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
307 PM MST FRI NOV 20 2009
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BORDERLAND AREA
LATE SATURDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WESTERLY WINDS AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR TOMORROW.
OTHERWISE... DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
BY TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
STRONGER DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...AND NEITHER OF THESE
SYSTEMS WILL ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS
AFFECTING THE WEST COAST TODAY...AND WILL BRING SLIGHTLY BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS TO OUR AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOTHING REALLY
TO WRITE HOME ABOUT.
THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY ENHANCED WESTERLY FLOW. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND NOT QUITE AS DEEP WITH THIS FEATURE COMPARED
TO THE ECMWF/NAM/GEM-GLOBAL MODELS. HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS SHOWN A
SLIGHT TREND TOWARDS A SLOWER/DEEPER SOLUTION OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE NON-GFS SOLUTION.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WX...THIS JUST MEANS SLIGHTLY BREEZIER
CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON...AT LEAST COMPARED TO SATURDAY...
BUT STILL NOT A BIG EVENT. ALSO...A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...WITH THE COOLER AIR
HANGING BACK A LITTLE LONGER AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CUTS OFF OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.
A WEAK PIECE OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ALSO APPEARS LIKELY TO
BREAK OFF INTO A BROAD CIRCULATION OVER WESTERN MEXICO...BUT IT
APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. THE
NEXT STRONGER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND.
SO OVERALL...DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE AT LEAST UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK...TEMPS REMAINING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL... THEN DROPPING BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY...WITH THE LOWLANDS
STRUGGLING TO REACH 60 TUE/WED.
AVIATION...VALID 21/00Z-22/00Z
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE A BIT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO PICK UP A BIT FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CONTINUED DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TEENS TO THE LOWER TWENTIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT MOVING IN MONDAY NIGHT WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR A
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN BAJA THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK COULD BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE UP FROM THE SOUTH...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL MOST LIKELY
REMAIN OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 39 69 41 67 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA TX 35 65 36 67 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 37 71 37 68 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 33 68 37 67 35 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 27 51 30 52 25 / 0 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 35 69 35 67 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 31 62 33 62 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEMING 32 70 32 69 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 30 69 31 69 30 / 0 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
25-HARDIMAN / 21-PARK
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