344
FXUS64 KEPZ 102001
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
201 PM MDT FRI MAY 10 2024
..NEW SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT FRI MAY 10 2024
BESIDES A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAR EAST AND NORTHERN
AREAS OVER THE NEXT DAY, DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE WITH 80S FOR
THE LOWLANDS AND 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
BREEZY TO LOW END WINDY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT FRI MAY 10 2024
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING AROUND KLAS WITH SW FLOW ALOFT, BUT
THIS HAS ALSO ALLOWED THE DRYLINE TO PUSH WEST INTO THE CWA.
MOISTURE NOT OVERLY DEEP, ESPECIALLY FROM THE RIO GRANDE WESTWARD.
THE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS FEATURE REAL WELL, BUT THIS IS
ONE OF THE TIMES THE NAM DOES A DECENT JOB. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THE
MOISTURE WILL START TO QUICKLY PUSH BACK TO THE WEST AROUND SUNSET
AND POSSIBLY MAKE IT OUT TO THE AZ BORDER. GUSTY EAST WINDS
EXPECTED BEHIND IT, ESPECIALLY ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE FRANKLINS
AND THE ORGANS. COULD SEE GUSTS OVER 40 MPH THIS EVENING, BUT THEY
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. MODELS PUTTING OUT SOME LIGHT
QPF EAST AND NORTH TONIGHT AND AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH COULD BE
TAPPED IN HUDSPETH AND OTERO COUNTIES, SO KEPT IN MENTION, BUT DID
TAPER BACK FROM MID SHIFT AND NBM. FOR SAT, THE UPPER LOW OFF TO
THE WEST STARTS TO MOVE EAST AND UPPER FLOW INCREASES WHICH WILL
PUSH MOISTURE OUT OF MUCH OF THE CWA, BUT STILL LINGER OUT ALONG
THE EASTERN BORDER WHERE SOME MORE SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO
AROUND 90 FOR THE LOWLANDS, BUT IN THE FAR EAST, COULD STRUGGLE TO
GET OUT OF THE LOWER 80S.
SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND THIS WILL PUSH ANY
RESIDUAL MOISTURE OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY
BUT WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE. WEST TO SLIGHTLY
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP DUST TO A MINIMUM. MODELS
AGREE IN SOME MARGINAL MOISTURE MAKING IT INTO THE FAR NORTHERN
CWA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A WEAKER SOUTHERN BRANCH CROSSING ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER LATER IN THE WEEK. KEPT IN THE 10-20 POPS
FOR MOST EVERY DAY NEXT WEEK. DO NOT SEE MUCH OF AN IMPACT FROM
RAINFALL, BUT MAY NEED TO WATCH A DRY LIGHTNING POTENTIAL.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.
MODELS DIFFER GOING INTO FRIDAY WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS BRINGING
AN ELONGATED TROUGH DOWN THROUGH THE CWA WITH PLENTY OF PRECIP.
THIS SOLUTION IS BY FAR AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO IT'S ENSEMBLES AND
THE EC SOLUTION. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE NBM AND EC WHICH PUSH
TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WARM.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT FRI MAY 10 2024
P6SM FEW-SCT150-200 THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. DRYLINE WILL BE
PUSHING WEST TO AT LEAST THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE QUICKLY THIS
EVENING WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT
5-15KTS, LIKELY STRONGER ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE FRANKLINS AND
ORGANS. BEHIND THIS DRYLINE, EXPECT AN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS AROUND
SCT-BKN020-030 TO PUSH WEST TO AROUND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY,
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH HOW FAR THIS CLOUD DECK MAKES IT, BUT IT WILL
LIKELY BE IN HUDSPETH COUNTY AND CAUSE VERY LOW CEILINGS ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. A FEW SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE AS WELL IN THESE FAR EASTERN
AREAS AFTER 06Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT FRI MAY 10 2024
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER MOISTURE PUSH THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING, BUT IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND ANY PRECIP WILL REMAIN FAR
EAST. THIS MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY GET PUSHED OUT OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
BRING IN SOME VERY MARGINAL MOISTURE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM THE
NORTH. AT THIS TIME, THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES FOR OUR ZONES WOULD
BE CATRON AND LINCOLN COUNTIES, BUT THESE CHANCES AREN'T GREAT. IN
FACT, THE POTENTIAL EXISTS THAT SOME DRY LIGHTNING COULD OCCUR
MON/TUE. LITTLE CHANGE GOING INTO WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH THIS DOES
LOOK LIKE THE WINDIEST DAY OF THE NEXT 5 AS WINDS OF 15-30 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. RH'S WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FAR EAST SATURDAY AND THEN IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE 10-20%
WILL BE MORE PREVALENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 61 90 58 87 / 10 10 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 57 84 55 82 / 20 20 20 0
LAS CRUCES 56 88 50 86 / 10 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 54 84 49 83 / 30 30 10 0
CLOUDCROFT 42 61 38 59 / 30 30 20 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 53 84 52 83 / 10 10 0 0
SILVER CITY 46 78 43 74 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 50 87 47 84 / 10 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 47 83 45 82 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 60 87 55 85 / 10 10 0 0
DELL CITY 56 83 51 86 / 30 30 10 0
FORT HANCOCK 58 92 52 88 / 10 20 10 0
LOMA LINDA 55 81 51 79 / 20 20 10 0
FABENS 59 91 54 88 / 10 10 10 0
SANTA TERESA 56 86 49 83 / 10 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 59 87 57 84 / 10 10 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 53 85 44 84 / 20 10 0 0
HATCH 52 87 45 85 / 10 10 0 0
COLUMBUS 54 87 52 85 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 58 84 50 82 / 20 20 10 0
MAYHILL 45 71 43 71 / 40 40 20 0
MESCALERO 44 71 42 70 / 30 30 20 0
TIMBERON 43 71 40 69 / 30 30 10 0
WINSTON 46 76 40 76 / 10 10 0 0
HILLSBORO 49 82 45 80 / 10 10 0 0
SPACEPORT 50 83 46 82 / 10 10 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 35 76 33 75 / 10 0 0 0
HURLEY 43 81 41 77 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 41 82 40 82 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 40 77 38 77 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 47 79 44 77 / 10 0 0 0
ANIMAS 47 84 46 82 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 49 85 47 82 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 48 85 47 82 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 49 79 47 77 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...26-GRZYWACZ
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