880  
FXUS64 KEPZ 142050  
AFDEPZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM  
250 PM MDT TUE AUG 14 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY BE FOCUSED OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO  
AND THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH JUST  
SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER, A PATTERN SHIFT ALOFT WILL BRING  
IN MORE WIDESPREAD MOISTURE BY THURSDAY, WITH THUNDERSTORM  
COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR  
WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW  
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN DROP TO NEAR-NORMAL  
BY THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN AZ THIS  
AFTERNOON, AND HAS MANAGED TO BRING IN SOME RECYCLED MOISTURE  
ALOFT OVER MOST OF NEW MEXICO, WHILE A TONGUE OF DRIER AIR REMAINS  
IN PLACE OVER PARTS OF WEST TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE, LOW LEVEL  
MOISTURE IS VARIABLE...WITH MID AND UPPER-50S OVER SOME AREAS, AND  
POCKETS OF MID-40S ELSEWHERE. THE DRIER AIR ISN'T VERY CONSISTENT,  
BUT IS MOST COMMON OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.  
 
WE HAD AN 18Z RAOB THANKS TO A SOFTWARE UPGRADE, AND THE SOUNDING  
WAS SURPRISINGLY HEALTHY WITH A NEARLY 1600 J/KG SBCAPE AND -5  
J/KG CIN. HOWEVER, MODIFYING THE SOUNDING FOR LOWER-50S DEWPOINTS  
REALLY RAMPS UP THE CIN, AND AS A RESULT, I COULDN'T JUSTIFY GOING  
WITH MUCH HIGHER THAN A 10-POP FOR MOST OF THE LOWLANDS OUTSIDE OF  
SW NEW MEXICO (DOWNSTREAM OF THE GILA) FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 
THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON WEDNESDAY WITH ITS ILL-DEFINED CENTER  
BRIEFLY REDEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL TEXAS ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL  
ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP IN THE MID-LEVELS (A RARITY THIS  
MONSOON SEASON!) ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ALOFT  
AND CONTINUED MARGINAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY  
OUTSIDE OF SW NEW MEXICO AND THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AGAIN. SO  
WHILE TOMORROW SHOULD STILL SEE AN "UPTICK" IN ACTIVITY, IT WILL  
MOSTLY BENEFIT AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE CENTRAL LOWLANDS.  
 
ON THURSDAY, MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT MORE TO WESTERLY,  
SPREADING THE MOISTURE AROUND A BIT MORE. NAM AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST  
PW VALUES OF 1.30-1.40 AROUND MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH IMPROVING  
INSTABILITY. EXPECT ANOTHER "UPTICK" IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. A  
LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AS WELL SINCE  
STEERING FLOW LOOKS TO JUST ABOUT COLLAPSE.  
 
HEADING INTO FRIDAY, THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE  
AZ/NM BORDER, WITH OUR NOW ALL-TOO-FAMILIAR N TO NE FLOW  
REDEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER, WE SHOULD STILL HAVE ENOUGH  
RECYCLED MOISTURE IN PLACE TO KEEP THINGS ACTIVE FOR AT LEAST  
ANOTHER DAY OR TWO, WHICH TAKES US THROUGH SATURDAY.  
 
SUNDAY COULD ALSO BE INTERESTING AS A WESTERLY TROUGH WILL CLIP  
THE AREA, WHICH COULD HELP ORGANIZE THUNDERSTORMS A BIT. BUT THIS  
SYSTEM WILL TEND TO DRY US OUT ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT. A BACKDOOR COLD  
FRONT LOOKS TO DROP INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY, BOOSTING LOW LEVEL  
MOISTURE, BUT WITH THE RIDGE REMAINING PARKED OVER THE GREAT  
BASIN, DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST.  
 

 
   
AVIATION...VALID 15/00Z-16/00Z
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL LIMIT TSRA  
TO MAINLY MOUNTAIN AREAS WITH A FEW ADJACENT LOWLAND AREAS ALSO  
IMPACTED BETWEEN 00Z-04Z AND AGAIN BETWEEN 18Z-24Z. SKIES WILL BE  
FEW-SCT060-080 SCT-BKN150-200. WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO  
15KTS EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WIND GUSTS TO 40KTS ALSO POSSIBLE  
NEAR STORMS.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO  
MAINLY MOUNTAIN LOCALES AND A FEW NEARBY LOWLAND AREAS THIS  
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. A MODERATE SURGE OF  
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE,  
STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,CONTINUING THROUGH  
NEXT WEEKEND. DAY TIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE FEW DEGREES ABOVE  
NORMAL TODAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE COOLING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL  
AVERAGES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. MINIMUM RELATIVE  
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL STAY ABOVE 20 PERCENT MOST AREAS WITH  
MODERATE OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. VENT RATES WILL RANGE FROM GOOD TO  
VERY GOOD.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
EL PASO 75 95 74 93 / 10 0 10 10  
SIERRA BLANCA 70 91 69 91 / 10 10 10 20  
LAS CRUCES 69 93 69 92 / 10 0 20 20  
ALAMOGORDO 69 94 68 93 / 10 20 20 20  
CLOUDCROFT 53 70 56 69 / 20 50 30 50  
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 70 93 70 92 / 10 10 30 20  
SILVER CITY 61 82 61 84 / 30 40 30 40  
DEMING 68 91 68 92 / 10 0 20 20  
LORDSBURG 67 88 67 90 / 40 10 40 30  
WEST EL PASO METRO 74 94 73 93 / 10 0 10 10  
DELL CITY 71 97 69 95 / 10 0 10 20  
FORT HANCOCK 72 95 70 95 / 10 20 10 20  
LOMA LINDA 68 91 69 89 / 10 10 10 20  
FABENS 70 94 69 94 / 10 10 10 20  
SANTA TERESA 72 94 71 92 / 10 0 20 10  
WHITE SANDS HQ 70 94 70 92 / 10 0 20 20  
JORNADA RANGE 69 94 67 93 / 10 0 20 20  
HATCH 70 95 69 94 / 10 0 20 20  
COLUMBUS 70 91 69 92 / 10 0 20 20  
OROGRANDE 72 94 71 92 / 10 0 20 10  
MAYHILL 59 81 59 79 / 10 30 30 40  
MESCALERO 59 81 60 79 / 20 50 30 40  
TIMBERON 58 79 59 78 / 10 30 20 40  
WINSTON 59 85 59 84 / 10 30 40 40  
HILLSBORO 65 90 66 90 / 10 20 30 40  
SPACEPORT 69 93 68 93 / 10 0 20 20  
LAKE ROBERTS 55 82 56 83 / 20 50 40 50  
HURLEY 62 84 62 85 / 20 30 30 40  
CLIFF 62 88 63 88 / 40 40 40 40  
MULE CREEK 63 87 64 86 / 40 50 40 40  
FAYWOOD 65 86 65 87 / 20 20 30 30  
ANIMAS 68 86 67 89 / 40 30 40 30  
HACHITA 67 88 66 90 / 20 10 30 30  
ANTELOPE WELLS 66 83 64 87 / 20 50 40 40  
CLOVERDALE 63 79 62 85 / 40 50 50 40  
 

 
   
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NM...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
25-HARDIMAN / 04-LUNDEEN  
 
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