275
FXUS64 KEPZ 070958
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
258 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MOVED AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL PACIFIC LOW CONTINUED TO PRESS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL KEEP HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION TODAY AS IT TRACKS
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND PASSES TO OUR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. LESS
SUNSHINE TODAY WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT
STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS MINIMAL. MONDAY NIGHT
THE NEXT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THIS FEATURE SHOULD COOL TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO
NORMAL OR BELOW AND POSSIBLY ALLOW FOR SOME PRECIPITATION OVER THE
FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DISCUSSION
THICKER HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAJA UPPER-LOW ARE NOW
SPREADING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA...WITH MOST OF THE
AREA EXPECTED TO BE UNDER BKN/OVC HIGH CIRRUS BY MID-MORNING. THIS
COMPACT CUT-OFF LOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND CONTINUE A
SLOW EASTERLY TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT
BEFORE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH EARLY SUNDAY.
MOISTURE IS THE LIMITING FACTOR WITH THIS SYSTEM AS OVER OUR AREA
IT WILL ONLY HAVE THE UPPER AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
TO OUR SOUTH IT WILL HAVE BETTER DYNAMICS AND SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN WHICH TO PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION OVER
MEXICO. BUT FOR US IT APPEARS THAT THICKENING MID CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF VIRGA ARE THE BEST CALL. PARTS OF SOUTHERN HUDSPETH COULD
SEE A LIGHT SPRINKLE...BUT MEASURABLE PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED AS THIS
SYSTEM PASSES. THE INCREASED CLOUDS AND DECREASED HIGHS
/THICKNESSES WILL KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF THE WEEKEND'S MAX TEMPS
BUT THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP MORNING MIN TEMPS UP A BIT.
SUNDAY THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT TO THE EAST AS A SHALLOW TROUGH PASSES
WELL TO THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ZONAL FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. WE'LL SEE INCREASINGLY
CLEARING SKIES WITH ONLY PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPS WILL WARM
AGAIN AND THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FEATURE TO MOVE IN AND AFFECT THE CWFA WILL
BE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY WHICH WILL COOL TEMPERATURES
FOR TUESDAY. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY THROUGH PASSES AND OVER WEST
SLOPES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE FROPA. MODELS ARE
INDECISIVE ON WHETHER OR NOT TO PULL IN ENOUGH MOISTURE ALONG THE
FRONT TO PRODUCE PCPN IN THE EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOR
TUESDAY...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON POPS FOR ALL BUT THE SACRAMENTO MTNS
ZONE.
SLIGHT WARMING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE AIR MASS
MODIFIES AND UPPER LEVELS REMAIN ZONAL. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS
ANOTHER WEST COAST TROUGH/LOW TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE
NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST MID-RANGE MODEL RUNS FROM LAST NIGHT HAVE
AMPLIFIED THE PATTER AND ARE ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO CUT FURTHER
SOUTH. AT THIS POINT HAVE ONLY ADDED SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND KEPT THE
THU/FRI FORECAST PERIODS DRY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FURTHER RUNS
TO SEE IT THE CURRENT TREND TOWARDS A "WETTER" SOLUTION CONTINUE.
AVIATION...VALID 07/12Z-08/12Z
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. HIGH
CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW TRACKING SOUTH OF
THE AREA OFF BAJA WILL COVER MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...WITH BKN-
OVC250 LIKELY PERIODICALLY ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
FIRE WEATHER
UPPER LOW CROSSING THE CENTRAL BAJA WILL TRACK EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND PASS TO OUR SOUTH. INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THE ONLY EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE HIGH
CLOUD COVER WILL BE RATHER THICK TODAY...ENOUGH TO KNOCK TEMPERATURES
BACK 3-4 DEGREES. A BACKDOOR FRONT PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE
EAST MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WITH ENHANCED EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK IS CONTINUED DRY...TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL...AND
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 76 50 77 49 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA TX 74 47 74 45 75 / 10 10 10 0 0
LAS CRUCES 75 47 76 46 77 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 72 44 72 43 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 60 29 61 29 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 75 43 76 43 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 73 40 72 40 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEMING 76 46 76 44 77 / 0 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 76 46 77 44 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
14/BIRD
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