095  
FXUS64 KEPZ 221002  
AFDEPZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM  
302 AM MST WED NOV 22 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
COOLER AIR BEHIND A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY.  
BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG WESTERN SLOPES CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE  
MORNING HOURS. MEANWHILE A STRONG UPPER HIGH TO THE WEST WILL  
BEGIN MOVING EASTWARD AND BRING A RETURN TO WARM DAYTIME  
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL PEAK AT ABOUT 15 TO 17 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL  
ON THE WEEKEND. IN FACT, THE ENTIRE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND  
WILL HAVE FABULOUS WEATHER, FOLLOWED BY A COOL CHANGE NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A STRONG UPPER HIGH CENTERED  
WEST OF BAJA CA WILL BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA TODAY.  
MEANWHILE A SURFACE RIDGE TO THE EAST HAS PUSHED IN A WEAK  
BACKDOOR FRONT RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG WESTERN  
SLOPES, WITH TODAY'S HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 6 TO 8  
DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY. EVEN SO, IT WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY  
WARMER THAN NORMAL.  
 
THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY  
WEEKEND AND PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE  
NORMAL. THE RECORD MAX TEMPS SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WILL  
BE THREATENED. ON MONDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE PUSHED EAST OF US  
BY AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH, BUT INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW  
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND POSSIBLY CHALLENGE  
ANOTHER RECORD HIGH.  
 
AS OF THE 00Z WEDNESDAY MODEL RUNS THE ECM HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE  
GFS WITH A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH MOVING NW TO SE ACROSS THE  
BORDERLAND TUESDAY. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT BUT THE  
TRAJECTORY IS A DRY ONE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO A LITTLE BELOW  
NORMAL BEFORE SLIDING (DRUM ROLL) TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL BY  
MIDWEEK. BUT EVEN IF THAT DOES OCCUR DURING THE LAST TWO DAYS OF  
NOVEMBER, IT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO KEEP NOVEMBER 2017 FROM BEING  
THE WARMEST (AVERAGING HIGH AND LOWS) ON RECORD. IT WILL BE CLOSE.  
NO COMPLAINTS FROM ME!  
 

 
   
AVIATION...VALID 22/12Z-23/12Z
 
VFR THRU THE PERIOD WITH P6SM  
SCT-BKN250. WINDS GENERALLY E TO SE AT 10-15 KTS.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ASIDE FROM HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY AND  
WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT MOVING  
THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TODAY WITH  
READINGS RETURNING TO 10 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL FOR  
THANKSGIVING AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MIN RH VALUES WILL  
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN  
WESTERN ZONES COULD DROP BELOW 15%. VENT RATES WILL GENERALLY BE  
POOR AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
EL PASO 67 40 72 44 / 0 0 0 0  
SIERRA BLANCA 65 38 70 44 / 0 0 0 0  
LAS CRUCES 66 36 70 41 / 0 0 0 0  
ALAMOGORDO 62 37 68 42 / 0 0 0 0  
CLOUDCROFT 54 27 60 34 / 0 0 0 0  
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 67 39 71 42 / 0 0 0 0  
SILVER CITY 62 35 69 39 / 0 0 0 0  
DEMING 68 35 72 39 / 0 0 0 0  
LORDSBURG 68 37 73 41 / 0 0 0 0  
WEST EL PASO METRO 67 40 71 44 / 0 0 0 0  
DELL CITY 65 37 71 40 / 0 0 0 0  
FORT HANCOCK 69 40 73 43 / 0 0 0 0  
LOMA LINDA 63 38 68 44 / 0 0 0 0  
FABENS 69 38 73 42 / 0 0 0 0  
SANTA TERESA 66 37 71 42 / 0 0 0 0  
WHITE SANDS HQ 65 39 71 44 / 0 0 0 0  
JORNADA RANGE 65 34 70 37 / 0 0 0 0  
HATCH 66 36 72 39 / 0 0 0 0  
COLUMBUS 68 36 71 39 / 0 0 0 0  
OROGRANDE 65 39 71 44 / 0 0 0 0  
MAYHILL 60 32 64 37 / 0 0 0 0  
MESCALERO 59 33 65 36 / 0 0 0 0  
TIMBERON 57 30 63 35 / 0 0 0 0  
WINSTON 66 31 68 34 / 0 0 0 0  
HILLSBORO 67 36 71 40 / 0 0 0 0  
SPACEPORT 66 34 71 34 / 0 0 0 0  
LAKE ROBERTS 68 30 71 32 / 0 0 0 0  
HURLEY 64 33 70 37 / 0 0 0 0  
CLIFF 67 30 74 33 / 0 0 0 0  
MULE CREEK 68 29 72 33 / 0 0 0 0  
FAYWOOD 65 36 70 39 / 0 0 0 0  
ANIMAS 68 35 73 39 / 0 0 0 0  
HACHITA 69 34 72 38 / 0 0 0 0  
ANTELOPE WELLS 69 35 72 38 / 0 0 0 0  
CLOVERDALE 68 37 70 40 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NM...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
01 FAUSETT  
 
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