644
FXUS64 KEPZ 091119
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
414 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2010
SYNOPSIS
A COOL FRONT MOVED WEST ACROSS MUCH OF THE BORDERLAND MONDAY EVENING
AND WILL USHER IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN
ORGANIZING STORM ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE TO SOUTHERN
ARIZONA WEDNESDAY...INCREASING THE CLOUDS AND BEGINNING RAIN
SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS MAY BECOME LOCALLY HEAVY WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE SOME HEAVY SNOW IN THIS
SAME PERIOD. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD STAY AT AROUND 5500 FEET...BUT
LOWLAND AREAS SUCH AS SIERRA AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES COULD SEE A
MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY MORNING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GIVING
US A DRY PATTERN AND WARMING TEMPERATURES BACK TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
LOOKS LIKE MODELS ARE GETTING "COLD FEET" SHORTLY BEFORE OUR NEXT
STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN. IN SHORT TERM...BACK DOOR COOL FRONT MOVED IN
LAST NIGHT AS FAR AS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND POSSIBLY TO THE
ARIZONA BORDER THIS MORNING. AIRMASS MOSTLY DRY BUT EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW IS PILING THE TYPICAL LOWER CLOUDS UP AGAINST THE SAC
MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS HAVE ALSO SEEPED INTO PARTS OF EASTERN OTERO AND
HUDSPETH COUNTIES FROM THE HUECO MOUNTAINS AND OTERO PLATEAU
EASTWARD. SOME FLURRIES AND FOG LIKELY IN THIS AREA AS WELL.
CLOUDS/PCPN SHOULD DISSIPATED AND END BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER
LOW THAT BROUGHT A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA MONDAY IS NOW WELL INTO
NORTH TEXAS AND NO LONGER ANY IMPACT TO THE WEATHER.
SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE ARE NOW WITH ITS AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE
CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NEXT STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AT THIS TIME. UPPER LOW STILL NOT CONTAINING MUCH
MOISTURE BUT MODELS SHOW IT INGESTING HEALTHY BATCH OF EASTERN
PACIFIC MOISTURE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT DEEPER SUB
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ALSO MERGING INTO AREA OVER SOUTHERN BAJA
BUT MODELS SHOW THE BULK OF THIS PLUME TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
WITH JUST A BIT OF IT MAKING IT INTO THE STORM SYSTEM. 00Z MODELS...
ESPECIALLY THE GFS...HAVE DEVIATED NOTICEABLY FROM PREVIOUS TRENDS.
GFS NOW FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM...BARELY CLOSING THE LOW OFF FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD. UPPER DYNAMICS OUT OF PHASE SOMEWHAT TOO WITH THE GFS
BUT STILL EXIST. LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE
CONVECTIVE WITH DESTABILIZATION (LI'S OF 0 TO -1) AND STRONG 170KT
JET NOW IN PHASE AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE JET THEN SLIPS
SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE DURATION OF THE STORM...BUT DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH STRONG PVA. MOISTURE IS
ALSO AT IT'S MAX WED EVENING WITH PW'S APPROACHING ONE-HALF INCH IN
THE SOUTH. LOOK FOR A FEW HEAVY SHOWERS WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. SNOW COULD BECOME HEAVY IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT DON'T HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE YET TO GO OUT WITH WATCHES. SNOW/QPFS LOW WITH THE GFS
DUE TO IT'S SPEED MOST LIKELY...AND WILL LET NEXT SHIFT GET ANOTHER
ROUND OF MODEL RUNS TO SEE IF THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT. SNOW LEVELS
SHOULD START AT 7500 FT WED AFTERNOON AND FALL TO AROUND 5500 FT
THURSDAY MORNING. LOWLANDS SUCH AS SIERRA...NORTHER OTERO...AND
HUDSPETH COUNTIES COULD ALSO SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY
MORNING. NAM A GOOD 6 TO 10 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS...NOT
COMPLETELY CLEARING THE AREA UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING. WILL KEEP
CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS WHICH BASICALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE.
OTHER SIGNIFICANT GFS IS APPEARING FOR THE WEEKEND. LAST SEVERAL
RUNS HAD ADVERTISED UPPER LOW TRAVELING TO THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS. LATEST RUN NOW KEEPS UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HATE TO FLIP FLOP TOO MUCH ON CURRENT
FORECAST BUT LATEST ECMWF ALSO SHOWING SAME PATTERN...SO WILL DRY
OUT THE WEEKEND AND WARM TEMPS BACK UP.
AVIATION...VALID 09/12Z-10/12Z
GENLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONSIDERABLE
BKN050-060 WITH ISOLD -SHSN IN AN AREA EAST OF A LINE FROM THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS TO THE HUECO MOUNTAINS. THESE CONDS WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY AROUND 18Z.
FIRE WEATHER
BACK DOOR COOL FRONT PUSHED WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA...AT LEAST
TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...LAST NIGHT AND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY. NEXT STORM STILL ON TRACK FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY WEST OF DEMING...AND SPREADING EAST OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...WHERE THE SNOW
LEVEL WILL FALL TO AROUND 5500-6000 FT. DRY FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 53 37 54 39 53 / 0 0 10 50 40
SIERRA BLANCA TX 45 29 49 34 48 / 0 0 10 40 40
LAS CRUCES 53 35 54 38 53 / 0 0 10 60 40
ALAMOGORDO 50 33 51 37 50 / 10 0 10 60 40
CLOUDCROFT 30 19 34 21 32 / 10 0 10 60 40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 49 32 51 36 50 / 0 0 30 70 40
SILVER CITY 44 26 45 31 39 / 0 0 30 70 20
DEMING 52 34 53 38 51 / 0 0 20 70 30
LORDSBURG 52 33 51 37 50 / 0 0 30 70 30
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
17 HEFNER
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