736
FXUS64 KEPZ 042000
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
200 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2009
SYNOPSIS
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL FLOW INTO NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE UPPER DISTURBANCES AND A COLD FRONT
MOVE INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALLS AND FLOODING POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
VERY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIR CONTINUES FLOWING INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND FAR WESTERN TEXAS CAUSING HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS OF
AROUND 1.5 INCHES ALONG WITH CAPES IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK BUT SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW CENTER WAS
MEANWHILE LOCATED NEAR TCS WITH TRAILING TROUGH/VORTICITY AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST. THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST INTO THIS EVENING ACTING TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION.
DEEP MOISTURE INDICATES LITTLE ENTRAINMENT SO ANY CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS GIVEN THE HIGH FREEZING
LEVELS. STEERING FLOW ALSO SUGGESTS STORM MOVEMENT OF ONLY AROUND
10 MPH OR LESS. THUS DEEP CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
AGAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
ON SUNDAY WEAK SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
CWA DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS WITH EAST WINDS BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY SUSTAINING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INFLOW. CONSEQUENTLY
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN AROUND 60 AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.3 TO 1.5 INCHES. AND DESPITE WEAK COOL
AIR ADVECTION AFTERNOON CAPES SHOULD BE AROUND 1000 J/KG TOMORROW.
LIFTING ALONG AND OVER FRONT POSSIBLY COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL
WAVE PUSHING DOWN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD THEREFORE GENERATE ANOTHER
PERIOD OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND EVEN
ISOLATED FLOODING.
MODELS INDICATE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AFTER SUNDAY WITH GFS PLACING 500 MB HEIGHT
CENTER NEAR ABQ BY LATER WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION BY MID WEEK
SURFACE LEE CYCLONE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
THESE DEVELOPMENTS WILL PLACE THE CWA UNDER INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
WITH WARMING ALOFT STABILIZING THE AIR MASS. LEE CYCLONE WILL ALSO
INDUCE MORE WESTERLY FLOW AT SURFACE WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION
LOWERING PRECIPITABLE WATER TO LESS THAN AN INCH. CONSEQUENTLY
MOST OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE VERY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY.
AVIATION...VALID 05/0000Z-06/0000Z
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...NUMEROUS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WILL
BRING PERIODIC MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REGION.
MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...ADDING ADDITIONAL
FORCING FOR CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE PROCESS OF RETROGRADING WESTWARD TODAY...
WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE COMING WEEK. WHILE THIS TYPICALLY DRIES US OUT...THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF NORTHWEST FLOW OFTEN HAVE RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH...AND IT LEAVES US OPEN FOR STRONGER THAN NORMAL SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES TO DROP IN...ENHANCING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH
ON SUNDAY...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME QUIETER BY
TUE/WED... WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE SACS AND GILA. OTHERWISE...DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S-60S WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE DROPPING OFF INTO THE 40S/50S BY
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...WITH BOTH WIND AND RH STAYING
FAR FROM CRITICAL VALUES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 72 93 70 95 71 / 40 40 40 20 20
SIERRA BLANCA TX 65 90 67 92 64 / 40 50 40 20 20
LAS CRUCES 69 93 67 94 68 / 40 40 40 20 20
ALAMOGORDO 67 92 66 94 66 / 40 50 50 20 20
CLOUDCROFT 51 67 49 71 50 / 50 50 50 30 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 66 91 65 93 65 / 30 40 40 20 20
SILVER CITY 62 85 61 87 61 / 40 40 40 30 20
DEMING 67 92 66 95 66 / 30 40 30 20 20
LORDSBURG 66 92 65 94 65 / 30 30 30 20 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NMZ022>025-030>032.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR TXZ055-056.
05 ROGASH/25 HARDIMAN
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