461  
FXUS64 KEPZ 222240  
AFDEPZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM  
340 PM MST THU FEB 22 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY  
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE BORDERLAND FRIDAY, AND  
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO THE GILA WILDERNESS FRIDAY NIGHT.  
DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN KEEP THE AREA WARM AND  
DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY  
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
OUR UPPER TROUGH PARADE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT WEEK. FIRST  
TROUGH WITH CLOSED LOW NEARLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN AT THIS TIME.  
DRY SLOTTING HAS MOVED IN BEHIND EXITING VORT OVER THE CENTRAL  
PLAINS. UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TO OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON. EXPECT A PRETTY WINDY DAY, ALTHOUGH TIMING OF TROUGH  
NOT IDEAL FOR STRONG WINDS. HAVING SAID THAT, WILL STILL ISSUE A  
WIND ADVISORY FOR AREAS WEST OF DEMING. MODELS SHOWS SURFACE/LOW  
LEVEL WINDS UP AROUND 30-35 MPH BY MID AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO  
WATCH EAST SLOPES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THEY MAY APPROACH/EXCEED  
ADVISORY CRITERIA. SURFACE FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT  
COULD KICK OFF A SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE GILA AREA, SO PUT LOW POP  
IN FOR THAT AREA. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL,  
BEFORE DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE VERY  
HIGH TO START OFF FRIDAY BUT BY THE TIME THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
MOVES IN, SNOW LEVELS COULD BE DOWN TO AROUND 6000-6500 FT.  
 
THE PARADE OF TROUGHS CONTINUES SUNDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH SWEEPS  
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO MID DAY. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE SO NO  
CHANCE OF RAIN. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SURFACE GRADIENT, BUT  
PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD STILL SUGGEST THE AFTERNOON BECOMING  
BREEZY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  
 
THIRD TROUGH MOVES TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. AGAIN, THE TIMING  
WITH THIS IS A BIT SLOW FOR IDEAL WINDS, BUT WINDS COULD STILL  
APPROACH ADVISORY LEVEL. SYSTEM DIGGING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH, SO  
SOME DECENT MOISTURE IS INVOLVED WITH THIS SYSTEM. SOME SHOWERS  
POSSIBLE FROM DEMING WEST TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH THE CHANCE SPREADING  
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. PWS REMAIN LOW SO DON'T  
EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN ACCUMULATIONS. AGAIN, SNOW LEVELS  
START OUT HIGH TUESDAY (ABOVE 9500 FT) BUT FALL TO AROUND 6000 FT  
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES BACK TO BELOW NORMAL  
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT  
DEVELOPS FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK, FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND  
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION...VALID 23/00Z-24/00Z
 
 
P6SM SKC-FEW250 WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20KTS DECREASING  
QUICKLY TO AOB 12KTS. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AGAIN AFTER 16Z OUT  
OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 15-25G35KTS WITH SOME PATCHY 3SM BLDU MAINLY IN  
HIDALGO, LUNA AND DONA ANA COUNTIES.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES  
FLUCTUATING BETWEEN BEING NEAR NORMAL TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW  
NORMAL. THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE  
OCCASIONAL STRONG WINDS. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TOMORROW WILL BE CLOSE  
TO 15 PERCENT AND SOME AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM TRUTH OR  
CONSEQUENCES DOWN TO DEMING COULD SEE A COUPLE HOURS OF CRITICAL  
CONDITIONS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. TOMORROW WILL HAVE BREEZY TO  
WINDY CONDITIONS WITH A LITTLE DECREASE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT  
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. STRONG WINDS WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND  
WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
EL PASO 35 68 40 55 / 0 0 0 0  
SIERRA BLANCA 34 71 37 56 / 0 0 0 0  
LAS CRUCES 29 66 33 53 / 0 0 0 0  
ALAMOGORDO 31 64 35 52 / 0 0 0 0  
CLOUDCROFT 24 46 21 34 / 0 0 0 0  
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 28 60 33 53 / 0 0 0 0  
SILVER CITY 26 57 29 45 / 0 0 0 0  
DEMING 26 63 31 52 / 0 0 0 0  
LORDSBURG 25 62 28 52 / 0 0 0 0  
WEST EL PASO METRO 36 68 40 54 / 0 0 0 0  
DELL CITY 30 70 37 57 / 0 0 0 0  
FORT HANCOCK 34 72 40 59 / 0 0 0 0  
LOMA LINDA 34 66 37 51 / 0 0 0 0  
FABENS 32 71 39 57 / 0 0 0 0  
SANTA TERESA 32 67 37 54 / 0 0 0 0  
WHITE SANDS HQ 32 66 36 53 / 0 0 0 0  
JORNADA RANGE 25 65 32 53 / 0 0 0 0  
HATCH 27 65 32 54 / 0 0 0 0  
COLUMBUS 28 66 34 53 / 0 0 0 0  
OROGRANDE 33 66 37 53 / 0 0 0 0  
MAYHILL 27 56 28 44 / 0 0 0 0  
MESCALERO 27 54 29 42 / 0 0 0 0  
TIMBERON 27 54 29 41 / 0 0 0 0  
WINSTON 17 57 21 46 / 0 0 0 0  
HILLSBORO 25 60 30 50 / 0 0 0 0  
SPACEPORT 26 62 31 52 / 0 0 0 0  
LAKE ROBERTS 19 55 23 44 / 0 0 10 0  
HURLEY 26 58 26 47 / 0 0 0 0  
CLIFF 24 58 34 50 / 0 0 0 0  
MULE CREEK 23 55 33 47 / 0 0 10 0  
FAYWOOD 25 59 29 48 / 0 0 0 0  
ANIMAS 25 63 29 52 / 0 0 0 0  
HACHITA 25 63 29 52 / 0 0 0 0  
ANTELOPE WELLS 26 65 30 55 / 0 0 0 0  
CLOVERDALE 28 61 32 50 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NM...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM MST FRIDAY FOR NMZ404>407.  
 
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
HEFNER/GRZYWACZ  
 
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