384  
FXUS64 KEPZ 190956  
AFDEPZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM  
356 AM MDT TUE SEP 19 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER  
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR IN  
AREAS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,  
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS  
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE  
SOUTHWESTERLY BY THURSDAY, ALLOWING SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BACK  
INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE  
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
A LARGE FLAT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST COAST TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN STEADY  
WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST PART OF THE  
COUNTRY. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING IN A DRIER MORE STABLE AIR  
MASS INTO THE AREA AND PREVENT DEEPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SOUTH  
OF THE BORDER FROM MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF  
DAYS.  
 
A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR NEAR  
THE BORDER, MAINLY IN SOUTHERN HIDALGO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES. THE  
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND  
BREEZY WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST ALONG  
AND NEAR THE EAST SLOPES WHERE LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR.  
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER  
TEMPERATURES AND LOWER WIND SPEEDS.  
 
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE ON THURSDAY AS A LOW  
PRESSURE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY  
INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY FRIDAY. THIS CHANGE WILL CAUSE THE LOCAL  
FLOW PATTERN TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE STATE. THIS IN  
TURN WILL ALLOW SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO FLOW INTO THE AREA AND  
INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 
INITIALLY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE WIDELY DISPERSED OVER  
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS WITH MOUNTAIN AREAS HAVING  
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN. THE BAND OF MOISTURE WILL  
BECOME MORE FOCUSED OVER AREAS JUST EAST OF EL PASO BY SATURDAY  
WITH STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING OVER  
PORTIONS OF HUDSPETH AND OTERO COUNTIES AND EASTWARD WITH DRY  
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO THE WEST. WEATHER MODEL RUNS INDICATE A  
DECENT DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR SETTING ALONG A DRY LINE  
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE IN THOSE AREAS WHICH WOULD BE MORE  
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS PATTERN IS  
LIKELY TO PERSIST ON SUNDAY AS WELL BUT MAY OCCUR A BIT MORE TO  
THE EAST.  
 
THE LONG TERM WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEK REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH  
MODELS DIFFERING IN POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS. OVERALL, AN ACTIVE  
WEATHER PATTERN WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS LIKELY  
FOR AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE  
AREAS TO THE WEST REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. RAIN SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME WIDESPREAD NEXT WEDNESDAY AS MODELS  
PROJECT A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA THAT MAY PULL  
MOISTURE FURTHER WEST OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.  
 

 
   
AVIATION...VALID 19/12Z-20/12Z
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE VALID  
PERIOD. SKY CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE FEW-SCT 090-110. SURFACE  
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 TO  
20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25KNOTS AFT 18Z WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN THE  
WEST AND NORTHERN AREAS. SOME MODERATE TURBULENCE POSSIBLE IN THE  
VICINITY OF MOUNTAIN RANGES. SURFACE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFT 03Z.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
WESTERLY FLOW OVER AREA WILL PUSH MOISTURE EAST AND SOUTH WITH  
LITTLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. EXPECT  
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S FOR MOST  
LOWLAND LOCATIONS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING WINDS THE  
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS INTO THE 15-20 MPH RANGE WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME  
AREAS TO APPROACH CRITICAL CONDITIONS. AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS  
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. LATE IN THE WEEK, MOISTURE WILL GET DRAWN  
INTO THE AREA AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE BACK ON THE  
INCREASE, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. VENT RATES WILL  
REMAIN VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT FOR NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
EL PASO 94 70 92 69 / 0 0 0 0  
SIERRA BLANCA 91 67 90 66 / 10 0 0 10  
LAS CRUCES 90 63 89 63 / 0 0 0 0  
ALAMOGORDO 90 63 89 64 / 0 0 0 0  
CLOUDCROFT 69 49 69 49 / 0 0 0 0  
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 90 61 89 61 / 0 0 0 0  
SILVER CITY 81 54 80 55 / 0 0 0 0  
DEMING 90 61 89 62 / 0 0 0 0  
LORDSBURG 89 62 88 62 / 0 0 0 0  
WEST EL PASO METRO 92 70 90 70 / 0 0 0 0  
DELL CITY 95 66 93 66 / 10 0 0 0  
FORT HANCOCK 94 69 93 68 / 10 0 0 10  
LOMA LINDA 87 66 86 64 / 0 0 0 0  
FABENS 94 69 92 67 / 0 0 0 0  
SANTA TERESA 92 67 90 67 / 0 0 0 0  
WHITE SANDS HQ 90 65 89 65 / 0 0 0 0  
JORNADA RANGE 91 62 90 63 / 0 0 0 0  
HATCH 91 63 91 63 / 0 0 0 0  
COLUMBUS 92 64 90 64 / 0 0 0 0  
OROGRANDE 91 66 90 66 / 0 0 0 0  
MAYHILL 79 54 79 53 / 0 0 0 0  
MESCALERO 79 54 78 53 / 0 0 0 0  
TIMBERON 77 53 76 53 / 0 0 0 0  
WINSTON 81 49 81 50 / 0 0 0 0  
HILLSBORO 86 56 86 58 / 0 0 0 0  
SPACEPORT 90 61 89 63 / 0 0 0 0  
LAKE ROBERTS 79 48 78 49 / 0 0 0 0  
HURLEY 83 54 83 55 / 0 0 0 0  
CLIFF 87 54 86 55 / 0 0 0 0  
MULE CREEK 84 56 83 58 / 0 0 0 0  
FAYWOOD 85 56 84 56 / 0 0 0 0  
ANIMAS 89 60 89 60 / 0 0 0 0  
HACHITA 90 60 90 59 / 0 0 0 0  
ANTELOPE WELLS 89 60 88 60 / 10 0 0 10  
CLOVERDALE 85 60 84 59 / 10 10 0 10  
 

 
   
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NM...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
04 LUNDEEN  
 
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