639  
FXUS64 KEPZ 212114  
AFDEPZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM  
314 PM MDT THU JUN 21 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION.  
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH DAYTIME  
LOWLAND TEMPERATURES REACHING A 100 PLUS DEGREES OVER A WIDE AREA.  
DESPITE A MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE, MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY  
WITH JUST A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS  
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO  
NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE AREA WELL  
INTO NEXT WEEK. CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING, THIS IS SUPPOSED TO BE  
THE WARMEST TIME OF THE YEAR IN OUR AREA AND CURRENT WEATHER  
CONDITIONS ARE LIVING UP TO THAT EXPECTATION. A STRONG AREA OF  
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE REGION. SUBSIDENCE, OR  
SINKING AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH IS HELPING TO INCREASE  
TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AREA WIDE. MOST LOWLAND DESERT  
AREAS WILL SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS BETWEEN 102 AND 107 FRIDAY WITH  
ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. WARM OVERNIGHT LOW  
TEMPERATURES WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF EXCESSIVE  
HEAT. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY,  
ESPECIALLY IN THE EL PASO METRO AREA. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN  
EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 
WHILE MOST AREAS REMAIN DRY, A MODEST AMOUNT OF MOISTURE DID MAKE  
IT INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF HUDSPETH AND OTERO COUNTIES LAST  
NIGHT. THIS MOISTURE HAS FUELED A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER  
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE  
HOURS IN THAT AREA WITH ONLY SPOTTY RAIN AMOUNTS EXPECTED.  
 
FOR THE WEEKEND, THE HIGH ALOFT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE AREA SOMEWHAT  
IN RESPONSE TO AN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE  
LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL SET UP A WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT WILL  
CONTINUE THE HOT BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.  
A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL ACTUALLY LOWER TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES  
MORE ON SUNDAY, BREAKING THE HOT TEMPERATURE STREAK, IF ONLY  
BRIEFLY. WESTERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL ALSO REACH BREEZY LEVELS BY  
THE AFTERNOON.  
 
AFTER THE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE EAST, THE HIGH ALOFT WILL RE-  
STRENGTHEN OVER THE STATE AND HOT 100 DEGREE PLUS TEMPERATURES  
WILL RESUME OVER THE DESERT LOWLANDS. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE  
HIGH WILL SUPPRESS MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE  
WEEK. HOWEVER, LONG RANGE MODELS TO HINT AT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
MAINLY MOUNTAIN BASED THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE  
WEEK. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
VALID 22/00Z-23/00Z.  
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLD -TSRA/WND  
VRB25G45KT/CIGS BKN110-130 00Z-03Z OVER THE SACS, REST OF EASTERN  
OTERO COUNTY AND HUDSPETH COUNTY. ISOLATED CU MDT CU BUILD UPS OVER  
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE GILA REGION THROUGH 02Z AND FOR BOTH THE  
GILA REGION & SACS AGAIN AFTER 20Z FRI. WINDS 270-290/5-10KTS ALONG  
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND WEST THROUGH 04Z, THEN VARIABLE THROUGH 18Z.  
WNW WINDS 10-15KTS IN THIS AREA THEREAFTER THRU EOP. WINDS 130-  
170/10-15KTS 01Z-13Z EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE...SHIFTING 180-200 IN  
THIS AREA THROUGH 17Z...THEN 210-260/10-15KTS THRU EOP.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
CONTINUED VERY HOT AND MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH  
PRESSURE ALOFT OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE REGION. ADVECTION OF LOW  
LEVEL GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE THU EVENING, WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED  
HIGH BASED STORMS FOR THE SACS, HUDSPETH AND REMAINDER OF EASTERN  
OTERO COUNTY THROUGH JUST AFTER SUNDOWN. MAINLY AFTERNOON BUILD UPS  
EXPECTED FRI FOR THE GILA REGION AND SACS, AS LESSER AMOUNTS OF GULF  
MOISTURE MOVE IN AGAIN OVERNIGHT. LOWLAND HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE  
UPPER 90'S TO 107. MOUNTAIN READINGS WILL RANGE FROM THE HIGH 70S  
TO MIDDLE 80S. VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENT RATES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY-  
EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS THE HIGH MOVES BACK OFF OVER THE PACIFIC AND  
ALLOWS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. MIN RH WILL  
RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
EL PASO 78 107 79 105 / 0 0 0 0  
SIERRA BLANCA 72 101 76 103 / 0 0 0 0  
LAS CRUCES 73 106 72 103 / 0 0 0 0  
ALAMOGORDO 72 104 72 103 / 0 0 0 0  
CLOUDCROFT 57 84 60 83 / 10 0 0 0  
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 73 106 73 103 / 0 0 0 0  
SILVER CITY 66 99 67 95 / 0 0 0 0  
DEMING 70 106 70 102 / 0 0 0 0  
LORDSBURG 70 104 70 100 / 0 0 0 0  
WEST EL PASO METRO 78 106 78 104 / 0 0 0 0  
DELL CITY 72 104 74 106 / 0 0 0 0  
FORT HANCOCK 76 106 78 107 / 0 0 0 0  
LOMA LINDA 71 101 74 100 / 0 0 0 0  
FABENS 74 106 75 106 / 0 0 0 0  
SANTA TERESA 76 106 76 104 / 0 0 0 0  
WHITE SANDS HQ 75 105 74 104 / 0 0 0 0  
JORNADA RANGE 72 106 70 104 / 0 0 0 0  
HATCH 71 108 71 105 / 0 0 0 0  
COLUMBUS 72 107 73 103 / 0 0 0 0  
OROGRANDE 75 105 75 104 / 0 0 0 0  
MAYHILL 61 92 64 91 / 10 0 0 0  
MESCALERO 61 92 62 92 / 0 0 0 0  
TIMBERON 60 91 63 89 / 0 0 0 0  
WINSTON 62 98 64 95 / 0 0 0 0  
HILLSBORO 68 103 67 100 / 0 0 0 0  
SPACEPORT 70 105 70 103 / 0 0 0 0  
LAKE ROBERTS 59 97 59 94 / 0 0 0 0  
HURLEY 66 100 67 97 / 0 0 0 0  
CLIFF 62 104 63 100 / 0 0 0 0  
MULE CREEK 66 102 67 97 / 0 0 0 0  
FAYWOOD 68 102 67 98 / 0 0 0 0  
ANIMAS 70 106 69 100 / 0 0 0 0  
HACHITA 69 106 70 101 / 0 0 0 0  
ANTELOPE WELLS 69 105 69 99 / 0 0 0 0  
CLOVERDALE 69 101 66 94 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NM...NONE.  
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ418-419-423.  
 

 
 

 
 
04/22 LUNDEEN/TRIPOLI  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TX Page
The Nexlab NM Page Main Text Page