416
FXUS64 KEPZ 191003
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
403 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013
SYNOPSIS
GENERALLY HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
REGION TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR OVER AREAS FROM THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH BEST
CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 100
THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR THE
DESERT LOWLANDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND NEAR
100 DEGREES FOR THE LOWLANDS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CURRENT HOT AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TODAY. A DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO WORK AGAINST ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIMITED MOISTURE MAKING IT AS FAR WEST AS THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT THAT MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
TO OCCUR THIS EVENING. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY.
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH
THESE STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AND
HOT TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 100 DEGREES FOR MOST LOWLAND
AREAS.
THE DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY AS A
PORTION OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL
AREA AND WEAKENS THE FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW A MORE MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
AND EAST. AS RESULT...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
FREQUENCY OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SPOTTY
WITH A FEW AREAS RECEIVING MODERATE RAINFALL. BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND LOWLAND AREAS
GENERALLY EAST OF DIVIDE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT
OVER LOWLAND LOCATIONS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
HOVERING AROUND 100 DEGREES. MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS PATTERN
WILL PERSIST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVENTUALLY BRING SOME
RAIN TO ALL AREAS OVER THE FOUR DAY PERIOD.
THE OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEK LOOKS SIMILAR BUT THE FLOW PATTERN WILL
BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN. SOME MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TRAPPED UNDER THE
HIGH. THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED. LONG RANGE MODELS
PROJECT THAT HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY DRIFT NORTHWARD...PUTTING THE
AREA UNDER AN EASTERLY FLOW THAT WILL KEEP A WARM SUMMER TIME
PATTERN OF WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN
PLACE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...VALID 19/12Z-20/12Z
VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH VALID PD. SOME ISOLD
T-STORMS AFT 18Z...MAINLY EAST OF THE RIVER AND THE MOUNTAINS.
STORMS MAY BECOME WIDESPREAD IN THE EVENING BUT WILL REMAIN EAST
OF A KDMN-KTCS LINE. WINDS 220-240/10-20G25KT ARE EXPECTED AFT 17Z
ALL AREAS. LGT OCNL MDT TURBC SFC-080 ALG AND EAST IMMEDIATELY
EAST OF AREA MOUNTAINS AFT 15Z.
FIRE WEATHER
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR FOR ALL AREAS STARTING ROUGHLY MID DAY.
GUSTS MAY REACH INTO THE LOW 30 MPH RANGE FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WITH FAVORED EXPOSURE. STORM ACTIVITY FOR TODAY...EXPECT ISOLATED
COVERAGE OVER HUDSPETH AND EASTERN OTERO COUNTIES IN THE
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FURTHER WEST TO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY MAY OCCUR IN THE EVENING. COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ISOLATED WITH BEST CHANCE IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND DRY LIGHTNING ARE THE MAIN
THREATS.
THROUGH THE WEEK...THE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY
SOUTH OF US...WILL SLOWLY RECENTER ITSELF TO OUR SOUTHEAST JUST
SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND. THIS WILL ALLOW CIRCULATION AROUND ITS
WESTERN PERIPHERY...TO ADVECT MEAGER AMOUNTS OF MONSOON DRIVEN
MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH...BEGINNING LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR ISOLATED MOUNTAIN ACTIVITY FOR THE GILA
REGION AND SACS STARTING THURSDAY AS A RESULT. STORMS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASING IN COVERAGE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
LOWLAND MIN RH TODAY WILL RANGE SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY...TO NEAR 20% EAST. LOWER TEENS TO 20% ARE IN STORE
FOR AREA MOUNTAINS. VALUES CLIMB ROUGHLY ANOTHER 5-12% ALL AREAS
THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER 3-5% FRIDAY
HAINES INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 5-6 TODAY...WITH 6 EXPECTED FOR
THE GILA REGION AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. CAPITAN MOUNTAINS WILL
LIKELY SEE 5. VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO 4-5 THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY THIS WEEKEND...AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 102 76 100 76 100 / 0 10 20 20 20
SIERRA BLANCA 100 72 97 72 98 / 20 20 20 20 20
LAS CRUCES 101 71 99 72 100 / 0 10 10 10 20
ALAMOGORDO 101 72 98 69 98 / 0 10 20 20 20
CLOUDCROFT 81 52 77 52 77 / 20 20 30 20 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 101 74 98 74 98 / 0 0 10 10 20
SILVER CITY 94 63 92 63 93 / 0 0 10 20 20
DEMING 101 68 100 68 99 / 0 0 10 10 20
LORDSBURG 100 66 98 68 99 / 0 0 10 10 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 102 77 99 79 100 / 10 10 10 20 20
DELL CITY 100 67 97 66 98 / 20 20 20 20 20
FORT HANCOCK 105 74 104 76 104 / 10 20 20 20 20
LOMA LINDA 95 66 91 65 92 / 10 20 20 20 20
FABENS 103 72 102 73 101 / 10 10 20 10 20
SANTA TERESA 100 73 99 75 100 / 10 10 10 10 20
WHITE SANDS HQ 100 72 97 73 98 / 0 10 10 10 20
JORNADA RANGE 100 66 98 66 99 / 0 10 10 10 20
HATCH 97 70 95 70 96 / 0 10 10 10 20
COLUMBUS 101 72 99 71 100 / 0 0 10 10 20
OROGRANDE 101 72 99 71 100 / 0 10 10 20 20
MAYHILL 86 59 84 60 82 / 20 20 30 30 30
MESCALERO 88 56 87 56 87 / 20 20 30 20 30
TIMBERON 85 56 83 56 83 / 10 20 20 20 30
WINSTON 92 58 89 58 88 / 0 0 10 20 20
HILLSBORO 95 65 92 67 93 / 0 0 10 10 20
SPACEPORT 99 68 97 68 98 / 0 10 10 10 20
LAKE ROBERTS 92 58 91 60 90 / 0 0 10 20 20
HURLEY 96 65 93 65 94 / 0 0 10 10 20
CLIFF 97 61 97 62 97 / 0 0 10 20 20
MULE CREEK 97 48 95 50 97 / 0 0 0 10 20
FAYWOOD 95 65 93 65 93 / 0 0 10 10 20
ANIMAS 101 67 98 68 99 / 0 0 10 10 20
HACHITA 101 68 99 68 99 / 0 0 10 10 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 102 70 100 70 101 / 0 0 10 10 20
CLOVERDALE 97 68 93 68 95 / 0 0 10 20 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
04/04
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