686  
FXUS64 KEPZ 262048  
AFDEPZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM  
248 PM MDT WED APR 26 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
BROAD TROUGHING, AND THE APPROACH OF A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM, WILL  
QUICKLY BRING BACK THE STRONG WINDS AFTER LIGHTER BREEZY  
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY BRINGS ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY TO  
THE AREA WITH WEST WINDS INCREASING TO 30 MPH AND HIGHER THROUGH  
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS REPEATS AGAIN FRIDAY, AND BOTH DAYS WILL  
GIVE THE REGION WIDESPREAD BLOWING DUST. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE  
PACIFIC LOW SWINGS IN WITH CHANCES FOR MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS  
FRIDAY AND A FEW MOUNTAIN AND LOWLAND SHOWERS SATURDAY. SATURDAY  
ALSO BRINGS MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES  
THROUGH FOR A COOL WEEKEND. NEXT WEEK LOOKS WARMER AND MOSTLY DRY  
WITH AFTERNOON BREEZY CONDITIONS MOST DAYS.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
WITH YESTERDAY'S UPPER-LEVEL PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM NOW IN THE  
PLAINS, OUR REGION IS EXPERIENCING A ONE-DAY BREAK FROM STRONG  
SPRINGS WINDS. THESE LOWER WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE NEXT  
PACIFIC STORM BEGINS TO CARVE A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN  
U.S. THURSDAY. THIS SETS UP THE RETURN OF THE TYPICAL SPRING WINDY  
PATTERN WITH TIGHTENING UPPER GRADIENTS AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT  
COMBINED WITH LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE PLAINS. WITH GOOD  
DAYTIME MIXING WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN AND SURFACE GRADIENTS  
WILL SUPPORT STRONGER WINDS AT THE SURFACE. MODELS INDICATE  
SUSTAINED 30 MPH WINDS LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SO WE  
WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE FOR TOMORROW  
AFTN/EVE FOR ALL ZONES. WE WILL SINGLE OUT THE AREAS EAST OF THE  
FRANKLIN/ORGAN RANGES TO KEEP THE ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY  
MORNING, WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA DROPS OUT MID-EVENING.  
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A BUT WITH DEEP ZONAL FLOW. DRY CONDITIONS  
WILL CONTINUE.  
 
FRIDAY THE SYSTEM SPOOLS UP AND BEGINS TO SAG SOUTH WHICH KEEPS  
OUR WIND PATTERN INTACT FOR A SECOND DAY OF STRONG WINDS AND  
BLOWING DUST. A SLUG OF MOISTURE, WITH SOME INSTABILITY, AND  
SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AN AREA  
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT MIGHT DROP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO GIVE  
OUR MOUNTAIN ZONES ISOLATED PCPN.  
 
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT A STOUT PACIFIC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH  
FROM THE WEST. MODELS INDICATE H850 COOLING OF ABOUT 10-12 C WHICH  
WILL DROP TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. SATURDAY THE SYSTEM  
CLOSES OFF AND DROPS SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND PASSES EAST  
ACROSS N CENTRAL NM. WE CONTINUE WITH SOME MAINLY MOUNTAIN AND  
SURROUNDING LOWLAND (ESP. EASTERN LOWLANDS) SHOWERS AND MAYBE A  
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE STORM IN THE VICINITY WINDS SHOULD  
CONTINUE BREEZY TO SLIGHTLY WINDY.  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING A BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES IN FROM  
THE NE UNDER THE EXITING UPPER STORM. THIS REINFORCES OUR COOL  
AIR AND KEEPS SUNDAY TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. WINDS WILL  
SLACKEN NOTICEABLY FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD  
ALOFT TO OUR WEST AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS ACROSS THE  
AREA.  
 
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE  
RELATIVELY BENIGN RELATIVE TO THIS WEEK'S WEATHER. GENERALLY HIGH  
PRESSURE WITH LIGHTER WINDS, DRY CONDITIONS, AND WARMER  
TEMPERATURES.  
 
14-BIRD  
 

 
   
AVIATION...VALID 27/00Z-28/00Z
 
 
P6SM FEW-SCT200-250 THROUGH PERIOD. WEST WINDS OF 10-20G30KTS WILL  
DECREASE TO AROUND 10KTS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT ON EASTERN SLOPES  
OF AREA MTS INCLUDING KELP WHERE WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AROUND 10-  
20KTS. AFTER 15Z WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 20-30G40KTS WITH AREAS  
OF 3-5SM IN BLDU.  
 
26-GRZYWACZ  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
   
..RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR ALL AREAS
 
 
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT THURSDAY FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT  
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS...  
 
TODAY WAS THE ONLY BREAK IN THE WINDS FOR THE WEEK WITH INCREASING  
WEST WINDS STARTING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. RELATIVE  
HUMIDITIES ON THURSDAY WILL BE FALLING INTO THE 10-15 PERCENT RANGE  
SO WILL GO AHEAD AN ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL LOWLAND AREAS  
AND THE GILA REGION. RH'S IN THE SACS LOOK TO BE JUST HIGH ENOUGH  
TO REMAIN OUT OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN  
MOISTURE ACROSS REGION FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP CRITICAL CONDITIONS  
TO JUST AN HOUR OR TWO IN THE LOWLANDS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS SATURDAY  
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND HUMIDITY LEVELS EVEN HIGHER AS  
SOME SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS AREA. TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK FOR EARLY  
NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS.  
 
26-GRZYWACZ  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
EL PASO 60 89 68 86 / 0 0 0 0  
SIERRA BLANCA 56 88 60 88 / 0 0 0 0  
LAS CRUCES 52 87 54 85 / 0 0 0 0  
ALAMOGORDO 53 87 55 84 / 0 0 0 20  
CLOUDCROFT 36 64 40 59 / 0 0 0 30  
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 54 86 56 81 / 0 0 0 10  
SILVER CITY 46 76 48 72 / 0 0 0 10  
DEMING 49 87 52 83 / 0 0 0 0  
LORDSBURG 49 86 51 81 / 0 0 0 0  
WEST EL PASO METRO 60 89 65 85 / 0 0 0 0  
DELL CITY 50 89 55 88 / 0 0 0 0  
FORT HANCOCK 56 92 61 91 / 0 0 0 0  
LOMA LINDA 54 82 58 81 / 0 0 0 0  
FABENS 58 91 62 88 / 0 0 0 0  
SANTA TERESA 55 88 59 85 / 0 0 0 0  
WHITE SANDS HQ 58 87 61 84 / 0 0 0 0  
JORNADA RANGE 48 87 51 84 / 0 0 0 0  
HATCH 49 89 51 85 / 0 0 0 0  
COLUMBUS 55 87 59 85 / 0 0 0 0  
OROGRANDE 56 88 60 86 / 0 0 0 0  
MAYHILL 39 74 46 73 / 0 0 0 30  
MESCALERO 38 72 44 71 / 0 0 0 30  
TIMBERON 37 70 43 70 / 0 0 0 30  
WINSTON 36 77 40 73 / 0 0 0 20  
HILLSBORO 45 82 47 77 / 0 0 0 10  
SPACEPORT 47 88 49 83 / 0 0 0 0  
LAKE ROBERTS 30 76 35 75 / 0 0 0 30  
HURLEY 42 78 45 74 / 0 0 0 10  
CLIFF 38 82 39 77 / 0 0 0 20  
MULE CREEK 35 79 39 75 / 0 0 0 20  
FAYWOOD 45 80 48 76 / 0 0 0 10  
ANIMAS 49 86 51 83 / 0 0 0 0  
HACHITA 47 86 50 83 / 0 0 0 0  
ANTELOPE WELLS 50 85 51 83 / 0 0 0 0  
CLOVERDALE 48 80 49 76 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR NMZ110>112.  
 
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 3 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR NMZ413.  
 
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR NMZ401>412-  
414>417.  
 
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ055-056.  
 
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 3 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ419.  
 
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ418-420>424.  
 

 
 

 
 
14/26  
 
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