861  
FXUS64 KEPZ 230843  
AFDEPZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM  
243 AM MDT MON APR 23 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
FAIR AND MILD WEATHER ACROSS THE BORDERLAND TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE  
ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AND DRIER  
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION WITH A SLACKENING OF THE WINDS. BACKDOOR  
COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH IN FROM THE EAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN  
ON THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH OF THESE WILL DROP TEMPERATURES AND BRING  
A BIT OF MOISTURE AND GUSTY EAST WINDS. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY APPEAR  
TO HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH  
SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
EARLY WEEK LOOKS BENIGN AS A BROAD AND FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDS ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WILL KEEP THE WINDS  
DOWN, DRY THE REGION, AND ALLOW FOR WARMING TO ABOVE SEASONAL  
NORMS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT THE FIRST OF TWO BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS ARRIVES FROM  
THE PLAINS. IT APPEARS TO BARREL IN OVERNIGHT, GIVING THE WEST  
SLOPES AND GAPS, AND EASTERN ZONES STRONG WINDS. IT DOES USHER IN  
SOME MOISTURE BUT IT APPEARS LIMITED AND SHALLOW. THUS  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE QUITE WEAK WITH THIS FIRST BOUNDARY. IT  
DOES HOWEVER BRING IN SOME COOLER AIR WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS  
LOOKING TO BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES COOLER WEDNESDAY THEN TUESDAY. WE  
WILL ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. A SECOND BACKDOOR FRONT  
PUSHES IN THURSDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER PREFRONTAL,  
FRIDAY WILL COOL AGAIN. THE ADDED MOISTURE FROM THE FIRST FRONT  
WILL STILL BE IN PLACE, AND THIS SECOND FRONT WILL BOLSTER THAT  
WITH ANOTHER ADVECTION OF MOISTURE. PWS WILL INCREASE FROM .40"  
TO .80" AND DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE FROM THE 30S TO THE 40S. THUS  
THURSDAY COULD SEE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT  
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BETTER DAYS FOR  
PRECIPITATION AS A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND  
PASSES NORTH, POSITIONING THE UPPER JET AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS  
OVER THE REGION. THUS WE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE FOR  
THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR THESE DAYS.  
 
SUNDAY THE TROUGH PASSES AND SLIGHTLY BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW  
RETURNS. THERE WILL BE A SHOVE OF THE MOISTURE TO THE EAST FOR  
SOME DRYING, BUT IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE A CLEAN AND SHARP SCOUR OUT.  
THUS WE COULD SEE SOME LINGERING STORM ACTIVITY OVER AREAS EAST  
OF THE RIO GRANDE.  
 
MONDAY LOOKS TO GIVE THE REGION A BIT MORE DRIER AIR AS THE COME  
UNDER STRONGER SW FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER DEEP PACIFIC LOW COMING  
ASHORE OVER SCAL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION...VALID 23/12Z-24/12Z
 
 
FAIR AND MILD WEATHER TODAY. SKIES GENERALLY SUNNY...SKC-FEW250.  
VSBY UNRESTRICTED. WINDS 140-180 3-5KTS THRU 18Z...THEN 210-230  
5-10KTS.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
FAIR AND MILD CONDITIONS TODAY, AND AGAIN TUESDAY, AS A BROAD AND  
FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.  
THIS MEANS SUNNY SKIES, DRY CONDITIONS, AND LIGHT WINDS.  
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TODAY AND TUESDAY, AND RH WILL DROP.  
A STRONG BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT.  
GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL BRING IN COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR.  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY, WITH MUCH  
HIGHER RH. THERE WILL BE A SECOND BACKDOOR FRONT PUSH IN FROM THE  
EAST LATE THURSDAY. THIS ONE LOOKS TO BRING MORE MOISTURE AND  
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION FOR  
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DESPITE A BIT OF STRONG EAST WIND WITH THE  
FRONTAL PASSAGES, AND MAYBE SOME OUTFLOW WINDS WITH STORMS, THERE  
ARE NO STRONG SPRING WIND EVENTS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
EL PASO 87 60 90 55 / 0 0 0 0  
SIERRA BLANCA 84 57 87 49 / 0 0 0 0  
LAS CRUCES 85 55 89 51 / 0 0 0 0  
ALAMOGORDO 83 55 87 51 / 0 0 0 0  
CLOUDCROFT 63 45 66 35 / 0 0 0 0  
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 85 56 88 50 / 0 0 0 0  
SILVER CITY 79 49 81 47 / 0 0 0 0  
DEMING 85 51 87 51 / 0 0 0 0  
LORDSBURG 85 51 85 51 / 0 0 0 0  
WEST EL PASO METRO 85 59 88 55 / 0 0 0 0  
DELL CITY 86 51 91 45 / 0 0 0 0  
FORT HANCOCK 89 57 91 54 / 0 0 0 0  
LOMA LINDA 82 56 85 47 / 0 0 0 0  
FABENS 88 54 91 52 / 0 0 0 0  
SANTA TERESA 86 56 88 53 / 0 0 0 0  
WHITE SANDS HQ 84 60 87 54 / 0 0 0 0  
JORNADA RANGE 85 53 88 50 / 0 0 0 0  
HATCH 88 52 91 51 / 0 0 0 0  
COLUMBUS 86 54 89 55 / 0 0 0 0  
OROGRANDE 84 58 88 52 / 0 0 0 0  
MAYHILL 71 49 75 35 / 0 0 0 0  
MESCALERO 71 46 75 37 / 0 0 0 0  
TIMBERON 69 44 72 37 / 0 0 0 0  
WINSTON 78 43 81 41 / 0 0 0 0  
HILLSBORO 83 53 86 48 / 0 0 0 0  
SPACEPORT 85 53 88 49 / 0 0 0 0  
LAKE ROBERTS 79 38 80 41 / 0 0 0 0  
HURLEY 81 47 82 46 / 0 0 0 0  
CLIFF 84 42 85 45 / 0 0 0 0  
MULE CREEK 81 50 82 51 / 0 0 0 0  
FAYWOOD 81 48 83 47 / 0 0 0 0  
ANIMAS 86 52 86 52 / 0 0 0 0  
HACHITA 86 51 87 52 / 0 0 0 0  
ANTELOPE WELLS 86 53 86 55 / 0 0 0 0  
CLOVERDALE 82 52 81 54 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NM...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
14-BIRD  
 
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