686  
FXUS64 KEPZ 252133  
AFDEPZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM  
333 PM MDT SAT MAR 25 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEMS WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY  
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA MOST OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK. WE  
WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW  
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
WE HAVE TRANSITIONED TO A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AND THAT  
WILL MEAN MORE WIND AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. CURRENTLY A SHORT  
WAVE RIDGE WAS MOVING ACROSS NEW MEXICO. THIS RIDGE WILL QUICKLY  
BE FOLLOWED BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS  
REGION TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS COMING THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT  
HOURS SO ITS IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL, BUT WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTY  
OVERNIGHT WINDS ESPECIALLY EAST OF AREA MOUNTAINS. THAT SHORT  
WAVE TROUGH WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE RIDGE  
(DID I MENTION WE WERE IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN). BY MONDAY  
AFTERNOON THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BE TO OUR EAST AND (YOU GUEST  
IT) ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE BEARING DOWN ON US. THIS  
NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MAINLY A WIND MAKER FOR THE LOWLANDS AND MAY  
BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.  
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE.  
IN THE MOUNTAINS IT WILL BE COOL ENOUGH TO SEE A FEW INCHES OF  
SNOW ABOVE 8,000 FEET. WE WILL GET A SLIGHT BREAK ON THURSDAY  
(STILL BREEZY THOUGH) BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS  
INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. MUCH LIKE THE TUESDAY SYSTEM, THE  
TROUGH ON FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY A WIND MAKER IN THE LOWLANDS AND  
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN AREA MOUNTAINS. STILL TO  
EARLY FOR WIND SPEEDS AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, BUT CONSIDERING  
IT IS MARCH/APRIL I'LL LEAN MORE HEAVILY ON THE WINDS THAN THE  
PRECIPITATION.  
 

 
   
AVIATION...VALID 26/00Z-27/00Z
 
 
P6SM SKC-SCT200-250 THROUGH PERIOD. SW WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE  
WESTERLY AND DECREASE FROM 10-20G30KTS TO AOB 12KTS BETWEEN 03-06Z  
EXCEPT AROUND KELP WHERE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 08Z-  
10Z. WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST AFTER 15Z TO 15-  
25G35KTS WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF KALM-KDMN LINE.  
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH  
PLENTY OF WIND AND NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER REGION TOMORROW AND BRING GUSTY WEST  
WINDS TO THE REGION WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE LOWER TO MID  
TEENS. STRONGEST WINDS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN OVER  
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE I'LL KEEP THE WATCH IN EFFECT AS IT  
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A MARGINAL SITUATION. WINDS LOOK JUST A  
LITTLE LIGHTER ON MONDAY BUT INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AS A STRONG  
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. COULD SEE SOME AREA,  
ESPECIALLY EAST EXPERIENCE SOME CRITICAL CONDITIONS TUESDAY. AS THIS  
UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS, COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BETTER MOISTURE MOVE  
INTO THE AREA AS WINDS REMAIN STRONG. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS  
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
EL PASO 54 77 52 80 / 0 0 0 0  
SIERRA BLANCA 50 76 50 80 / 0 0 0 0  
LAS CRUCES 45 72 43 77 / 0 0 0 0  
ALAMOGORDO 49 74 44 76 / 0 0 0 0  
CLOUDCROFT 30 50 31 51 / 0 0 0 0  
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 47 73 46 76 / 0 0 0 0  
SILVER CITY 38 64 40 65 / 0 0 0 0  
DEMING 43 73 42 78 / 0 0 0 0  
LORDSBURG 39 72 41 75 / 0 0 0 0  
WEST EL PASO METRO 54 75 51 79 / 0 0 0 0  
DELL CITY 45 79 43 81 / 0 0 0 0  
FORT HANCOCK 51 80 49 83 / 0 0 0 0  
LOMA LINDA 50 70 48 73 / 0 0 0 0  
FABENS 51 77 49 82 / 0 0 0 0  
SANTA TERESA 49 74 47 79 / 0 0 0 0  
WHITE SANDS HQ 52 74 49 77 / 0 0 0 0  
JORNADA RANGE 42 73 40 77 / 0 0 0 0  
HATCH 45 74 43 78 / 0 0 0 0  
COLUMBUS 48 76 47 81 / 0 0 0 0  
OROGRANDE 50 75 46 77 / 0 0 0 0  
MAYHILL 38 62 36 66 / 0 0 0 0  
MESCALERO 36 59 35 63 / 0 0 0 0  
TIMBERON 35 60 35 62 / 0 0 0 0  
WINSTON 32 66 33 68 / 0 0 0 0  
HILLSBORO 41 71 42 73 / 0 0 0 0  
SPACEPORT 44 73 43 76 / 0 0 0 0  
LAKE ROBERTS 27 63 28 64 / 0 0 0 0  
HURLEY 36 66 38 70 / 0 0 0 0  
CLIFF 32 70 34 71 / 0 0 0 0  
MULE CREEK 37 66 38 67 / 0 0 0 0  
FAYWOOD 41 68 42 71 / 0 0 0 0  
ANIMAS 41 74 42 77 / 0 0 0 0  
HACHITA 40 74 41 78 / 0 0 0 0  
ANTELOPE WELLS 43 74 43 78 / 0 0 0 0  
CLOVERDALE 40 69 41 70 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING  
FOR NMZ111-112.  
 
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING  
FOR TXZ055-056.  
 

 
 

 
 
BRICE/GRZYWACZ  
 
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