835
FXUS64 KEPZ 240952
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
352 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2008
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY WARM DRY WEATHER TODAY WITH A FEW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF THE
RIO GRANDE. MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE DOLLY WILL FLOW INTO THE
REGION TOMORROW AND THIS WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. A
FEW AREAS MAY HAVE VERY HEAVY RAINS FROM THIS STORM. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING A RETURN OF WARMER DRIER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE GFS...WRF AND ECMWF...STILL SHOWING
SOME VARIABILITY AND INCONSISTENCIES EACH RUN CONCERNING
PROJECTION OF HURRICANE DOLLY. AS A RESULT FORECAST IS BASED ON
MODEL BLEND PLUS SREF QPF FIELDS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES.
FOR TODAY EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO BRING ANTHER SEASONABLY
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY DAY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE WITH HEAT AND
MOISTURE BARELY SUFFICIENT FOR VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
LOWLANDS. SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER THE WEST.
DOLLY IS NOW CROSSING EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS AND MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST. EXPECTED TRACK WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH CENTER MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CHIHUAHUA MEXICO ON
SATURDAY. APPROACH OF STORM TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHEAST COMBINED
WITH SURFACE AND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
INCREASE LOW AND MID LEVEL EASTERLY GRADIENTS WITH WIND
TRAJECTORIES FAVORABLE FOR DEEP MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS WILL APPROACH 1.4 INCHES WITH VALUES REACHING 1.6 INCHES
BY SATURDAY. MOISTURE INFLOW WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. APPROACH OF STORM WILL ALSO CREATE UNSEASONABLY STRONG
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH WIND SPEEDS NEAR 30 MPH AT MID LEVELS
SUGGESTING ISOLATED CELLS MAY EVOLVE INTO WEAK HP SUPERCELLS.
LIFTING MECHANISMS WILL INCLUDE HIGH TERRAIN IN ADDITION TO
INCREASING VORTICITY ADVECTION AHEAD OF STORM TROUGH ALOFT
PLUS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR WEAK SURFACE TROUGH.
MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS RAINFALL COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS HIGHLY DEPENDANT
ON STORM TRACK WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THUS WILL BROAD BRUSH AND
INCREASE COVERAGE TO SCATTERED ON FRIDAY WITH ACTIVITY CONTINUING
INTO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS LIKELY
ESPECIALLY NEAR ANY WEAK HP SUPERCELLS BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
FLOOD WATCHES TO LET NEXT SHIFT ASCERTAIN MORE PRECISELY
IF/WHEN/WHERE HEAVY RAINS WILL OCCUR.
ON SUNDAY STORM WILL LIKELY MOVE FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST SUCH
THAT ASSOCIATED RAINS WILL DIMINISH FROM EAST TO WEST. THEREAFTER
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL BRING WARM MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LATEST GFS HINTS AT POSSIBLE BACK
DOOR FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY
WITH AN INCREASE IN PRECIP THREAT BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE FORECAST
MOSTLY DRY LATER PERIODS.
AVIATION
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING WITH A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...MAINLY
WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE DOLLY WILL FLOW
INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES AND ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND
TRHUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY WARM DRY WEATHER TODAY EAST OF THE
RIO GRANDE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LITTLE POSSIBILITY OF DRY LIGHTNING. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE DOLLY WILL SURGE INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
TEXAS ON FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINS WILL FALL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREAS DURING THIS TIME
RESULTING IN A LOW WILD FIRE DANGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 96 71 92 70 89 / 10 20 30 40 40
SIERRA BLANCA TX 88 62 82 62 81 / 10 20 30 40 40
LAS CRUCES 95 70 91 69 88 / 20 20 30 40 40
ALAMOGORDO 93 68 88 66 87 / 10 20 30 30 40
CLOUDCROFT 74 49 70 50 67 / 20 20 40 40 40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 93 67 89 67 87 / 20 20 30 30 40
SILVER CITY 87 59 83 58 80 / 30 30 30 30 40
DEMING 95 69 92 68 88 / 20 20 30 30 40
LORDSBURG 93 66 90 66 87 / 30 30 30 30 40
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
05 ROGASH
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