302  
FXUS64 KMAF 251918  
AFDMAF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX  
218 PM CDT WED APR 25 2018  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
A COOL SURFACE RIDGE WILL HOLD SWAY OVER THE REGION TONIGHT, AND  
ALONG WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES, RESULT IN A CHILLY  
THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS  
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD QUICKLY. A FAST  
MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT  
WILL THEN SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY  
NIGHT. THE FORECAST WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY AS MOST OF  
THE MID LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.  
AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP OVER THE PRESIDIO VALLEY/BIG  
BEND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH, BUT NOT EXPECTING  
MUCH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY,  
AND A LITTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND  
THURSDAY NIGHT'S FRONT LINGERS. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME  
SOUTHWESTERLY THEREAFTER, WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO  
POSSIBLE OVER THE PRESIDIO VALLEY/BIG BEND POSSIBLE FRIDAY/SATURDAY  
IN MEAGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY, BUT WILL VAULT ABOVE NORMAL  
MONDAY/TUESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A DEEPENING  
WEST COAST UA TROUGH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE  
HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO HEIGHT/SURFACE PRESSURE  
FALLS, WITH A TIMELY SHORTWAVE TROUGH POSSIBLY AIDING THUNDERSTORM  
DEVELOPMENT OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD  
SPREAD EASTWARD SUNDAY EVENING, BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED DUE  
TO THE RELATIVELY MILD HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A  
DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN UP MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH STORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE.  
MODEL DIFFERENCES DO NOT OFFER MUCH SUPPORT FOR A DEFINITE SOLUTION  
RIGHT NOW, BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE DRYLINE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD BY  
TUESDAY WITH ANY STORMS DEVELOPING THEN FORMING EAST OF THE FORECAST  
AREA. FULLY EXPECT MODELS TO OFFER SEVERAL DIFFERENT SCENARIOS  
BETWEEN NOW AND THEN, SO STAY TUNED. FIRE WEATHER COULD BECOME A  
CONCERN TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS HOT, DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS  
POSSIBLY RETURN, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/SE NM.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
BIG SPRING 42 83 50 77 / 0 0 0 0  
CARLSBAD 43 83 50 75 / 0 0 0 0  
DRYDEN 46 83 57 81 / 0 0 10 0  
FORT STOCKTON 45 84 51 77 / 0 0 0 0  
GUADALUPE PASS 47 77 47 69 / 0 0 0 0  
HOBBS 41 79 44 73 / 0 0 0 0  
MARFA 35 83 48 71 / 0 0 10 10  
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 42 83 51 77 / 0 0 0 0  
ODESSA 42 83 51 76 / 0 0 0 0  
WINK 43 87 51 78 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NM...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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