187  
FXUS64 KMAF 270511  
AFDMAF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX  
1211 AM CDT THU APR 27 2017  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS, W/A FEW HIGH CLOUDS  
ANTICIPATED AT TIMES. SFC FLOW WILL VEER TO SW AND BECOME GUSTY  
THIS MORNING, AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CONVECTIVE  
TEMPS WILL BE TOO HIGH FOR ANY APPRECIABLE CU DEVELOPMENT.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 615 PM CDT WED APR 26 2017/  
 
UPDATE...  
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO CANCEL THE RED FLAG WARNING AS FIRE  
WEATHER CONCERNS HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS MOST AREAS DUE TO  
DIMINISHED WIND SPEEDS.  
 
AVIATION...  
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.  
 
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, VFR CONDITIONS  
WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHT AND  
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN WEST WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 20-25KT  
SUSTAINED BY MID DAY THURSDAY, PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF  
THE TAF PERIOD.  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT WED APR 26 2017/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
 
THERE IS AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE  
COUNTRY. A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE AREA ALLOWING FOR A  
BRIEF RELIEF FROM THE 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES  
TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S AND 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.  
DESPITE THIS COOL DOWN, THERE IS STILL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS  
THE SOUTHERN CWA. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 
AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE AREA ON  
THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR HIGHER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.  
THIS WILL CREATE POSSIBLE HIGH WINDS IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS SO A  
HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT THURSDAY FOR THIS AREA. SURFACE WINDS  
WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE  
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THESE WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DOWNSLOPE WARMING  
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND 90S ACROSS MOST OF WEST TEXAS  
AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY, WINDS WILL NOT BE  
QUITE AS STRONG AS ON THURSDAY BUT OTHERWISE SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL  
BE PRESENT WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND 90S.  
 
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE  
COUNTRY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON  
SATURDAY AS WELL AS A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN AND EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY  
NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY  
BUT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE CLOSER SO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY  
WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S.  
 
A WARM-UP IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME WEST TO  
SOUTHWEST AND THE PREVIOUS UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.  
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO WARM UP; OTHERWISE, NOT  
MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS NEXT WEDNESDAY BRINGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA  
BUT NO PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.  
 
FIRE WEATHER...  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXITING THE REGION TODAY, HOWEVER WEST  
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE CRITICAL FIRE  
WEATHER THREAT IN FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO  
TOMORROW. WINDS ARE DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A QUICK  
HITTING COLD FRONT AND WILL RETURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.  
THEN A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL  
INCREASE THE WIND SPEEDS ENOUGH TOMORROW TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE  
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER.  
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND BUT  
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE HUMIDITIES ENOUGH TO ALLEVIATE THE  
FIRE DANGER THREAT AND PREVENT THE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
BIG SPRING 92 61 90 61 / 0 0 0 20  
CARLSBAD 91 62 88 57 / 0 0 10 20  
DRYDEN 93 64 95 66 / 0 10 0 10  
FORT STOCKTON 94 65 93 63 / 0 10 0 10  
GUADALUPE PASS 80 57 80 53 / 0 0 0 20  
HOBBS 88 57 85 53 / 0 0 0 20  
MARFA 86 51 86 53 / 0 10 0 10  
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 92 63 91 62 / 0 0 0 20  
ODESSA 91 64 91 62 / 0 0 0 20  
WINK 94 64 92 60 / 0 0 0 20  
 

 
   
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR GUADALUPE  
MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  
 
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 11 AM MDT THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING  
FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.  
 
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM  
CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-  
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-MARFA PLATEAU-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER  
TRANS PECOS-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.  
 
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 11 AM MDT THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING  
FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.  
 

 
 

 
 
44/29/44  
 
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