921  
FXUS64 KMAF 172255  
AFDMAF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX  
455 PM CST SAT FEB 17 2018  
   
AVIATION
 
 
00Z TAF ISSUANCE  
A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA, BUT  
WILL WASHOUT OVERNIGHT. OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF LOW CIGS POSSIBLE AT  
KMAF, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS  
WILL BECOME GUSTY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 224 PM CST SAT FEB 17 2018/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
WARMER TODAY WITH A BIT MORE SUNSHINE DESPITE A COLD FRONT  
PUSHING INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN REGION, SHIFTING WINDS TO THE  
NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE S/SE BY THIS EVENING, USHERING  
50+ DEWPOINTS INTO EASTERN ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WILL  
LIKELY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST AS A RESULT AND  
MAYBE SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG. MODELS SHOW SEVERAL WEAK/SMALL  
DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER THE REGION IN SW FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT AND  
SUNDAY, PRODUCING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS  
TONIGHT AND SHIFTING TO EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY. ALSO, A DRYLINE  
DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS TO INCREASE  
INSTABILITY JUST EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY SO CAN'T RULE OUT THE  
CHANCES FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME.  
 
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN NEAR THE NM/CO STATE LINES  
MONDAY AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH THROUGH THE WESTERN CONUS.  
STRENGTHENING SW FLOW ALOFT AND A TIGHTENING GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE  
WILL RESULT IN INCREASED SW WINDS ACROSS SE NM AND W TX THROUGH THE  
DAY. HIGH WINDS LOOK LIKELY IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AS HIGHER  
WIND SPEEDS ALOFT MIX DOWN, AIDING IN STRONG WIND SPEEDS. GUSTY  
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL HELP WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND  
POTENTIALLY 80 FOR SOME. DRIER AIR WILL SHOVE THE DRYLINE EAST  
ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES. MODELS INDICATE A RETREATING DRYLINE  
MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN  
PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE WE COULD  
HAVE SOME WEAK UPPER FORCING WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE SO WILL  
KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS.  
 
WILL SEE WEST WINDS CONTINUE TUESDAY, BUT NOT AS STRONG AND HIGH  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. OUR NEXT COLD FRONT WILL  
ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING SO WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE  
MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S. BEYOND WEDNESDAY, SW  
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE  
WEST. MAY SEE A RETURN OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA  
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF WE CAN GET  
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT AS UPPER WAVES PASS CLOSE BY.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
BIG SPRING 46 74 54 80 / 0 10 20 0  
CARLSBAD 42 76 47 73 / 0 0 0 0  
DRYDEN 56 75 55 82 / 20 20 10 10  
FORT STOCKTON 51 81 54 79 / 10 10 10 10  
GUADALUPE PASS 47 67 48 64 / 0 0 0 10  
HOBBS 40 75 46 70 / 0 0 10 0  
MARFA 43 75 43 71 / 10 10 10 10  
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 48 75 52 78 / 0 10 20 0  
ODESSA 47 75 52 77 / 0 10 20 0  
WINK 46 79 48 78 / 0 10 10 0  
 

 
   
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NM...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
29/99/  
 
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