865  
FXUS64 KMAF 140452  
AFDMAF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX  
1152 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2018  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
THE LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION IS BELOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING AND  
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON,  
BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT ANY TERMINALS.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 228 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2018/  
 
AS EXPECTED, SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING HAS BEEN CONCENTRATED IN  
THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN, AND WHILE DIMINISHING WILL REMAIN UNTIL  
SUNSET WHEN THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL REDUCE RAIN CHANCES.  
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN IN THE AREA THE PAST FEW DAYS REMAINS  
OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE MOSTLY CUT OFF FROM THE PREVAILING  
WESTERLIES. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS PRECIP IS FALLING WITHIN  
AND EAST OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE BIG BEND TO THE  
EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN, SO DESPITE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE LOW, THE  
STEADY SHIFT OF THIS MOISTURE EAST SHOULD BRING AN END TO OUR  
RAIN, AT LEAST TEMPORARILY.  
 
A WESTERN U.S. RIDGE WILL EXPAND EAST AS THE LOW EXITS THE REGION  
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, BUT THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE  
INDICATING IT MAY BE WEAKENED BY A DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF  
MEXICO. THIS COMBINED WITH THE GROUND MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINS  
GIVE ENOUGH REASON TO KEEP TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW MEX GUIDANCE  
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ANOTHER TROUGH ARRIVING FRIDAY WILL  
FURTHER ERODE THE HIGH AND PUSH IT BACK WEST, BRINGING A RETURN OF  
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND.  
 
HENNIG  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
BIG SPRING 71 94 72 96 / 10 0 10 0  
CARLSBAD 68 97 70 97 / 0 0 0 10  
DRYDEN 72 92 72 95 / 20 20 10 10  
FORT STOCKTON 69 93 70 95 / 10 10 10 10  
GUADALUPE PASS 66 90 68 90 / 0 10 10 10  
HOBBS 66 93 68 94 / 0 0 0 10  
MARFA 59 88 61 88 / 20 20 10 20  
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 71 94 72 96 / 10 0 0 0  
ODESSA 71 94 71 96 / 10 0 0 0  
WINK 70 97 72 98 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NM...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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