463
FXUS64 KMAF 090542
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1242 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2008
AVIATION
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE NIGHT AND TOMORROW. GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO TOMORROW...SO HAVE TEMPO/S IN TSRA AT KCNM
FOR THE TAF PERIOD. REST OF THE TAF SITES HAVE PROB30 FROM 09/06Z
TO 10/06Z FOR MAINLY -SHRA. WILL LIKELY SEE LOWERED CIGS NEAR
SUNRISE AND HAVE ALSO PUT IN MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THIS LIKELIHOOD.
OTHERWISE...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTY SE WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. /13/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 209 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008/
DISCUSSION...
RICH MSTR IS PLACE ACRS W TX AS EVIDENT IN PRESENCE 7H-5H THETA-E
RIDGE AXIS AND 1.5" PW/S ON 12Z MAF SOUNDING. WX ACRS W TX BEING
INFLUENCED BY CIRCULATION AROUND 5H HIGH WELL TO THE E AND MID LEVEL
WLYS SAGGING S INTO NRN NM. THIS HAS PLACED A DEEP S-SE FLOW (THRU
450MB) ACRS W TX. WATER VAPOR ALSO INDICATES A WEAKENING UPPER
LOWS S OF THE BBNP AND ANOTHER FARTHER SW OF BBNP. AS SUCH EXPECT
THAT PRECIP THIS PM FROM THE CNTRL PB SWD WILL BE CLOSELY TIED TO
THETA-E RIDGE AXIS WITHIN SLY MID LEVEL FLOW...LOW S OF BBNP...AND
DAYTIME HEATING. PRECIP FARTHER W WILL BE TIED TO TERRAIN...MID
LEVEL SHEAR AXIS...AND THETA-E RIDGE. POP FCST ALREADY ORIENTED
IN THIS FASHION AND WILL MAKE MINOR CHANGES. CONVECTION IN THE
PANHANDLE/ S PLAINS WILL BE IMPORTANT TO THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACRS
PB WED AS STORMS WILL HELP TO DRIVE BOUNDARY S INTO AT LEAST NRN
CWFA. NAM IS SHOWING THE BOUNDARY IN A SWD LOCATION 00Z/THUR AND
EXPECT THAT WITH BOUNDARY BEING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THETA-E
RIDGE/SHEAR AXIS THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WED WILL BE FROM THE GDP
MTNS INTO SE NM/NW-N PB. CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DECREASE ACRS FAR
S-SE AS LOWER THETA-E AIR WORKS NWWD WITH AN INCREASED PRESENCE OF
HIGH PRESSURE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THUR AS 5H HGHTS
SLOWLY BUILD AND LOWER THETA-E AIR MOVES FARTHER NW. NAM/ECMWF IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 5H RIDGING WILL INCREASE WWD PUSHING
MID LEVEL MST AXIS W OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. GFS SLOWER HOLDING 7H-
5H MSTR ACRS NM EVEN INTO SAT. HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE 90S LATE
THIS WEEK ACRS CWFA AND FCST WILL REFLECT SLOW WARMING TREND WITH
BETTER POPS ACRS FAR W. MID LEVEL WLYS WILL ATTEMPT TO PRESSURE
WELL DEVELOPED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INTO SUNDAY WHICH WOULD TEND TO
BRING BETTER MSTR/STEERING FLOW INTO W AND NE CWFA. ATTP WILL BE
SLOW TO BUY INTO THIS.
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
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