518  
FXUS64 KMAF 230744  
AFDMAF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX  
244 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2018  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, IF NOT TWO, FROM CONVECTION IN THE TEXAS  
PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS  
MORNING. THESE FEATURES MAY TAKE A DEGREE OR TWO OFF HIGH  
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO  
AND THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN, BUT IT WILL STILL BE VERY HOT  
AREAWIDE. WILL EXPAND THE HEAT ADVISORY A LITTLE TO INCLUDE EDDY  
COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, AND THE MARFA PLATEAU IN WEST TEXAS,  
OTHERWISE IT WILL STAY THE SAME.  
 
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL BE FLATTENED MORE TODAY AS A  
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. SINCE DRY AIR WILL SPREAD  
EASTWARD DUE TO THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, EXPECT  
CONVECTION TO BE RELEGATED TO THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN, STOCKTON  
PLATEAU AND LOWER TRANS PECOS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG A  
DRYLINE. INTENSE SURFACE HEATING WILL SEND SBCAPE SOARING TO AT  
LEAST 3000 J/KG ALONG THIS FEATURE. SINCE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES  
WILL BE NEAR 8 C/KM, AND SURFACE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS 40-50  
DEGREES, EXPECT A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH STRONG WINDS BEING THE  
PRIMARY THREAT, ALONG WITH HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE RIDGE  
WILL RETREAT MORE SUNDAY, WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE  
DAVIS/GLASS MOUNTAINS, AND BIG BEND REGION DUE TO INCREASING  
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS, WITH PRETTY MUCH THE SAME RESULT AS  
SATURDAY.  
 
CONVECTION COULD PERSIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY  
BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN SOME. THE EXPANSION/  
STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BE TEMPORARY THOUGH AS MEDIUM  
RANGE MODELS INDICATE MORE WEAKNESS IN IT BY MID NEXT WEEK, SO  
CONVECTION MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION, NOT TO MENTION SOME HIGH  
TEMPERATURES BELOW 100 DEGREES.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
BIG SPRING 107 78 102 76 / 10 20 10 0  
CARLSBAD 108 72 107 72 / 0 0 0 0  
DRYDEN 106 78 102 77 / 10 10 10 10  
FORT STOCKTON 108 76 105 74 / 10 10 10 10  
GUADALUPE PASS 101 72 98 70 / 0 0 0 0  
HOBBS 102 70 104 70 / 0 0 0 0  
MARFA 101 62 99 60 / 0 10 10 20  
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 107 78 104 76 / 0 10 0 0  
ODESSA 106 77 104 75 / 0 10 0 0  
WINK 109 75 109 75 / 0 0 0 10  
 

 
   
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NM...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING  
FOR EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY.  
 
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING  
FOR ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CRANE-DAVIS/APACHE  
MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-GLASSCOCK-HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA  
PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-  
REAGAN-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-UPTON-  
WARD-WINKLER.  
 

 
 

 
 
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