683  
FXUS64 KMAF 271720  
AFDMAF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX  
1220 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL  
DIMINISH AND BECOME VARIABLE THIS EVENING THEN A COLD FRONT WITH  
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z.  
LOW CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA ALONG AND BEHIND  
THE FRONT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME LATER IN THE MORNING.  
 

 
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
 
THE START OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL BE A HOT ONE, THOUGH A  
STRONG COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO  
THE AREA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL ALSO RETURN ON SUNDAY AND  
MONDAY, BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY ONWARD. BELOW NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT  
WEEK.  
 
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY HOT DAY IS ON TAP ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO  
AND WEST TEXAS TODAY. GIVEN 850MB TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO, OR EVEN  
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, EXPECT HIGHS INTO THE MID 90S AND  
LOWER 100S ONCE AGAIN FOR MOST. ALSO, THERE LOOK TO BE LESS HIGH  
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, THUS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A  
FEW LOCATIONS ARE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN ON FRIDAY. THE ONLY  
LOCATIONS THAT LOOK TO ESCAPE THE HOT TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE  
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN, WHERE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ARE EXPECTED THIS  
AFTERNOON. BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL DEVELOP  
THIS AFTERNOON, AND GIVEN THE CONTINUED HOT AND DRY PATTERN,  
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO  
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS, AND  
MOST OF CULBERSON COUNTY. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR  
THESE AREAS, PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR  
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.  
 
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, A RETREATING DRYLINE LOOKS TO EDGE INTO  
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, RESULTING IN A CHANCE  
OF THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWER TRANS PECOS INTO  
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BIG BEND AREA. THE PRIMARY FOCUS CONTINUES  
TO BE ON A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH INTO  
THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE NAM IS ABOUT 3 HOURS FASTER WITH  
THE FRONT THAN THE GFS, THOUGH THE OVERALL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE  
FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE PECOS RIVER BY LATE MORNING, AND TO THE  
RIO GRANDE BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE  
FRONT, THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY LOOK TO BE FOCUSED  
PRIMARILY ALONG AND WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER, WITH DRIER AIR  
SETTLING IN ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO.  
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WARM TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS CONTINUED  
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN  
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING, A FEW OF  
WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG. THE BIG STORY WITH THE FRONT WILL BE MUCH  
COOLER TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE  
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH 90S CONFINED TO THE  
RIO GRANDE VALLEY. BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED  
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WITH WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AT TIMES,  
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO,  
THOUGH THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  
 
PERSISTENT EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL  
MAINTAIN AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WELL INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH  
WIDESPREAD CLOUDCOVER EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL  
EACH AFTERNOON. HIGHS THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY LOOK TO GENERALLY BE  
IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S, WITH LOWS EACH NIGHT IN THE 50S AND 60S.  
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP  
RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY NEXT WEEK AS  
WELL, THOUGH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION  
LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH  
TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND MOVES TOWARD THE AREA.  
WHILE GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE, IT  
APPEARS THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR RAIN CHANCES TO GRADUALLY  
SHIFT EASTWARD BY FRIDAY, WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER, BUT STILL BELOW  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
FIRE WEATHER...  
 
FIRE WX CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE HEIGHTENED TODAY AS THE DRYING AND  
HEAT CONTINUE TO WEAR ON. SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND CULBERSON  
COUNTY WILL AGAIN BE THE FAVORED AREAS FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS  
WITH HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER. ERCS HAVE ROSE TO AROUND THE  
75TH PERCENTILE. THE STRONGEST WEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH IN THE  
PLAINS, 25-35 MPH IN THE GDP MTNS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 2 AND 6 PM  
MDT. A COLD FRONT SUNDAY AM WILL BRING AN END TO THE CRITICAL FIRE  
WX, AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL INCREASE INTO MID WEEK.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
BIG SPRING 102 66 83 62 / 0 10 20 20  
CARLSBAD 98 59 84 58 / 0 0 10 10  
DRYDEN 100 73 88 67 / 10 30 40 50  
FORT STOCKTON 99 66 81 63 / 10 20 20 30  
GUADALUPE PASS 89 57 76 56 / 0 0 10 20  
HOBBS 94 57 81 54 / 0 0 10 10  
MARFA 92 57 80 56 / 0 10 20 30  
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 100 63 83 60 / 0 10 20 20  
ODESSA 100 64 82 60 / 0 10 10 20  
WINK 101 61 86 61 / 0 10 10 20  
 

 
   
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUADALUPE  
MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  
 
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR  
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.  
 

 
 

 
 
99/99/  
 
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