773  
FNUS71 KALY 181208  
FWSALY  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR FRIZZLE FRY...APB - DEC  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
808 AM EDT THU MAY 18 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 EDT ON MAY 18.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL  
WEATHER SERVICE.  
 
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT ALB.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV, IF YOU  
HAVE QUESTIONS OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ALONG WITH RH VALUES  
OF 30 TO 45 PERCENT EXPECTED TODAY...  
 
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER REGION WILL RESULT  
IN NEAR RECORD HIGHS AGAIN TODAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO  
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER  
GREAT LAKES. DRIER, COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL FILTER IN  
ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  
 
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES BETWEEN 30  
AND 45 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON, AND TO BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT  
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT  
BOTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.  
 
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH THIS  
AFTERNOON. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS  
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
CWR.................20 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 92.  
MIN HUMIDITY........32 PERCENT.  
MIN HUMIDITY........32 PERCENT.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 16 MPH.  
SURFACE WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 16 MPH.  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 16 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH  
IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-300 FT AGL, INCREASING TO 8200-9200 FT AGL  
IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 17 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.00 INCHES.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT), THEN BECOMING  
PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. SCATTERED  
THUNDERSTORMS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER  
MIDNIGHT.  
CWR.................30 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 65.  
MAX HUMIDITY........81 PERCENT.  
MAX HUMIDITY........81 PERCENT.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 13 MPH.  
SURFACE WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 13 MPH.  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 13 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......9200 FT AGL, DECREASING TO 600-1000 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 13 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04 INCHES.  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS.  
CWR.................10 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71.  
MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT.  
MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTHWEST WINDS 12 TO 18 MPH.  
SURFACE WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 12 TO 18 MPH.  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......NORTHWEST WINDS 12 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO  
25 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL, INCREASING TO 3000-4300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 22 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.00 INCHES.  
 

 
FORECASTER...JPV  
REQUESTED BY...TYLER BRIGGS  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1709683.0/ALY  
.EMAIL TBRIGGS@ALBANYPINEBUSH.ORG,ATTBRIGGS@ALBANYPINEBUSH.ORGTHANK  
 
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