969  
FNUS71 KBGM 241047  
FWSBGM  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR ,COWGILL RX BURN...PA DCNR  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY  
647 AM EDT MON APR 24 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0700 EDT ON APRIL 24.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, YET IT WILL  
STILL MANAGE TO KEEP DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS GOING FOR THE BURN  
AREA TODAY, WITH VARIABLE LIGHT WIND BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST.  
HOWEVER, A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL START TO  
THICKEN CLOUDS ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. LATE  
TONIGHT THROUGH ESPECIALLY TUESDAY, THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A  
WETTING RAIN TO THE BURN AREA.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT).  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 65.  
MIN HUMIDITY........28 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 7 MPH  
LATE IN THE MORNING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1800 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 1900-3100 FT AGL  
LATE IN THE MORNING.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 0 MPH...BECOMING EAST 2 TO 10 MPH  
EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 5 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL  
FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SUNSET..............  
 
TIME (EDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........38 41 47 52 58 63 68 74 78 82 86  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............42 45 49 53 57 60 62 64 65 65 65  
RH..............79 73 68 59 48 42 37 32 30 29 28  
20 FT WIND DIR..NW N N E E E SE SE SE SE SE  
20 FT WIND SPD..0 0 1 3 4 5 5 5 6 6 6  
20 FT WIND GUST. 5 10 10 10 10 10 10 10  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.1 0.6 1.3 1.8 2.3 2.7 3.0 3.1 2.8 2.4 1.9  
TRANSP WIND DIR.N NE NE E E E SE SE SE SE E  
TRANSP WIND SPD.0 2 5 6 8 9 10 10 9 8 7  
HAINES INDEX....2 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
LATE.  
CWR.................0 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 43 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 44.  
MAX HUMIDITY........86 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......EAST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 3 TO 10 MPH...INCREASING TO 13 TO 18 MPH  
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SUNRISE.............  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........87 88 89 90 91 91 91 92 92 92 93 93  
WEATHER COV..... SCH CHC CHC CHC  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 30 40 40  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............63 61 58 56 53 52 50 49 47 46 45 44  
RH..............30 35 40 43 48 50 56 58 65 71 79 82  
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE E E E E E E E E  
20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 15 15 15 15  
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.3 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9  
TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E E E E E E E E E E  
TRANSP WIND SPD.5 3 3 5 6 8 10 13 15 16 17 18  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
   
TUESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN.  
CWR.................59 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 80 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 52.  
MIN HUMIDITY........74 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......EAST WINDS 12 TO 13 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-1300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 18 TO 21 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SUNSET..............  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM  
SKY (%).........94 97 97 98  
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY DEFNTE  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RAIN RAIN RAIN  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............50 60 70 80  
LAL.............1 1 1 1  
TEMP............44 46 50 52  
RH..............86 79 77 77  
20 FT WIND......E 9G15 E 10G15 E 10G15 E 9G15  
MIX HGT (FT)....1100 1300 1200 1100  
TRANSPORT WIND..E 20 E 21 E 20 E 18  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 2 2  
 

 
FORECASTER...PELLERITO  
REQUESTED BY...SHAWN TURNER  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1707624.0/BGM  
.EMAIL SHTURNER@PA.GOV  
 
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