155  
FXUS61 KALY 142339  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
739 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD  
ACROSS THE REGION INTO TONIGHT, BRINGING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND  
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF  
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. A  
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY BRINGING  
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS  
NORTHERN AREAS.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR THE LAKE GEORGE  
SARATOGA REGION, MOHAWK VALLEY, SACANDAGA REGION, SCHOHARIE VALLEY,  
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT, EASTERN CATSKILLS, MID HUDSON VALLEY, AND  
THE TACONICS.  
 
A SURFACE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND AN  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER EASTERN NEW YORK WILL KEEP THE  
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS  
EVENING. PWATS REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES THROUGH THIS  
EVENING. SO EXPECT SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO ROTATE  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE ACTIVITY  
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS  
TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION. LOWS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE  
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
FOR WEDNESDAY MORE WET WEATHER IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN  
AREAS AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE  
VALLEY. PWATS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ARE GENERALLY UNDER 1.5 INCHES  
EXCEPT ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WHERE THEY ARE AS HIGH AS 1.75 INCHES.  
STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING FAIRLY FAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BASED ON THE  
H7 FLOW, GENERALLY AT 30 TO 40 KTS. MLMUCAPES ARE GENERALLY 1000 TO  
3000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR 25 TO 30+  
KTS. H7-H5 LAPSE RATES ARE GENERALLY 6 TO 6.5 C/KM. SO SOME STRONGER  
STORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS  
NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK IN EFFECT. HIGHS ON  
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S.  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE  
TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO  
UPPER 60S.  
 
ON THURSDAY EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY DAY EXCEPT CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER  
OR THUNDERSTORM MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS  
A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGHS  
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 90.  
 
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE  
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO  
CENTRAL NEW YORK BY FRIDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO  
LOWER 70S.  
 
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE DAY WITH THE WARM FRONT  
LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT  
APPROACHES FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING  
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. PWATS RISE TO OVER 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF  
THE REGION ON FRIDAY SO HAVE ONCE AGAIN INTRODUCED THE MENTION OF  
HEAVY RAIN. MLMUCAPES RISE TO 1500 TO 4000 J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON, 0-  
6 KM BULK SHEAR 20 TO 35 KTS, H7-H5 LAPSE RATES 5.5 TO 6.5 C/KM. SO  
SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.  
 
OVERALL DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE  
ABOVE NORMAL WITH PRECIPITATION NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL  
AS WELL.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
THIS PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AT EACH END WITH  
A DRY SECTION IN THE MIDDLE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE A  
THREAT, BUT ALONG WITH LIMITED SUNSHINE AND ATMOSPHERIC MOMENTUM,  
INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE LIMITED. IT WILL FEEL AS IT SHOULD...LIKE  
THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER, WITH MODERATELY HIGH HUMIDITIES AND HIGH  
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S RANGE EACH DAY,  
AND LOWS MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW OVER MOHAWK VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY  
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. CEILINGS AND  
VSIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY BE VFR THIS EVENING, BUT SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE TAF SITES THROUGH  
MIDNIGHT. TIMING OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS UNCERTAIN SO VCSH INCLUDED  
IN THE TAFS. MAINLY VFR SHOULD OCCUR IN THE EVENING, BUT AREAS  
OF FOG AND/OR STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
BEST CHANCE FOR FOG/STRATUS AT THE TAF SITES IS AT KGFL AND  
KPSF. VFR CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES AGAIN BY 14Z WEDNESDAY.  
 
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 10KTS.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.  
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.  
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.  
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.  
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.  
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.  
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD  
ACROSS THE REGION INTO TONIGHT, BRINGING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND  
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF  
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. A  
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY BRINGING  
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS  
NORTHERN AREAS.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING OCCASIONAL  
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. DEEP  
MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW AS IT PUSHES EAST. SOME STORMS  
WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AS A RESULT, THE FLASH  
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.  
 
MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING IS NOT LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA,  
HOWEVER THE SCHOHARIE BASIN IS RUNNING HIGH SO ADDITIONAL  
RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN RENEWED FLOODING ALONG THE SCHOHARIE  
CREEK AT GILBOA BRIDGE, OR NEW FLOODING AT PRATTSVILLE IF MORE  
RAIN FALLS IN THESE AREAS.  
 
SOME AREAS WILL RECEIVE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY  
HIGHER AMOUNTS, ESPECIALLY IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA. THIS  
RAINFALL COULD OCCUR IN THREE HOURS OR LESS, THUS RESULTING IN A  
FLASH FLOOD THREAT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE  
OVERNIGHT, WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS TAPERING OFF.  
 
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE  
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO  
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THEN, MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED  
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  
AFFECT THE REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY  
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY  
EVENING.  
 
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING  
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE  
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS  
ON OUR WEBSITE.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ038>041-  
047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV  
NEAR TERM...11  
SHORT TERM...11  
LONG TERM...ELH  
AVIATION...SND  
FIRE WEATHER...11/JPV  
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV  
 
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