933
FXUS61 KALY 061120
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
720 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2008
SYNOPSIS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL MOST OF OUR AREA TODAY. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE AREAS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY...STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO
A STATIONARY FRONT...THAT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED.
THIS HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND BEGIN PUMPING MORE HUMIDITY AND HEAT
OUR WAY COME MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WELL AS AN INCREASED THREAT OF A
THUNDERSTORM.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR THE NEAR TERM CONSISTS OF A WEAKENING
STATIONARY FRONT...LYING DOWN AROUND THE MASON DIXON LINE...AND WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF ALBANY.
ONCE AGAIN HAD A "ROGUE" HEAVY SHOWER...(WITH A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES)...IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS LOOK LIKE THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL MOIST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC...UPSLOPING ALONG THE
EAST FACING SIDE OF THE CATSKILLS. THE SHOWER HAS COMPLETELY FALLEN
APART AND RADARS ARE QUIET. NOW WE ARE DEALING WITH "STRATUS ISSUES"
AS THEY ATTEMPT TO COME UP THE HUDSON VALLEY AND POINTS EAST.
OUR THINKING IS THAT STRATUS SHOULD NOT HANG AROUND MUCH AFTER
SUNRISE AS THE DUCTING SOUTHERLY MECHANISM IS WEAK AND THEY SHOULD
BE THIN ENOUGH TO BE BURNED OFF BY THE JULY SUN.
WHEN IT DOES...IT APPEARS THAT ANY INSTABILITY SHOULD LIE SOUTH OF
ALBANY TODAY AGAIN. WITH NO FORCING MECHANISMS AND THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY...HAVE REMOVED ANY SENSIBLE POPS FROM THESE AREAS...BUT
STILL WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCES FURTHERS SOUTH ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS/HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY.
WENT A POINT OR TWO ON THE LOW SIDE OF MINCED GUIDANCE TODAY DUE TO
THE STRATUS. OBVIOUSLY IF THEY DO NO BURN OFF...OUR NUMBERS WILL
STILL BE TOO HIGH.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL ONLY SLOWLY CHANGE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE...AND IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL WASH OUT...EVEN THOUGH AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW...CURRENTLY IN THE OHIO VALLEY...APPROACHES. THE INTERESTING
THING ABOUT THIS UPPER LOW IS IT HAS LOTS OF DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. FOR THIS REASON...IT APPEARS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL NOT INCREASE
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER OUR REGION ON ITS OWN MERIT.
WE MIGHT REPEAT THE SAME PROCESS OF DEVELOPING STRATUS/FOG ON
TONIGHT BUT AGAIN THEY SHOULD BURN OFF QUITE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.
THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT...WHERE IT LIFTS...AS WELL AS INCREASING
DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES...WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY.
UPSLOPE AREAS (ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY) COULD THEN
BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO FORM FROM DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING COME MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES MOST AREAS EXCEPT
LOW CHANCES TO THE EAST.
BY TUESDAY...A BERMUDA HIGH LOOKS TO FULLY CONTROL OUR WEATHER. H850
TEMPERATURES ARE WARM (NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS RUNS) BUT STILL
TOASTY AT AROUND 17C. WE LOOK TO START OFF CAPPED AS THE GFS MOVES A
SIGNIFICANT MCS WELL TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...UPPER AIR HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO FALL BY AFTERNOON AS A SLUG OF MOISTURE IS POISED TO CROSS
OUR REGION. THIS ADDED MOISTURE ALONG WITH FALLING HEIGHTS MIGHT BE
ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP BUT THIS SCENARIO IS FAR FROM CERTAIN. FOR
NOW...HAVE DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS TO THE 30-40 RANGE FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD APPROACH 90 DEGREES IN MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND WELL INTO THE 80S MOST OTHER PLACES.
A RATHER UNCOMFORTABLY MUGGY NIGHT IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. SOME MUNICIPALITIES MIGHT NOT GET
BELOW 70 DEGREES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MODELS HAVE COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT THAT THE MID WEEK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL FORECAST LOW
CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...RAISE THE POPS TO
HIGH CHANCE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN LOWER POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ONE MORE VERY WARM AND HUMID
DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER
80S...AND COULD SEE SOME PLACES REACH 90 IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE OCCURS.
ECMWF AND GFS BOTH FORECAST DECENT COOLING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR
THE END OF THE WORKWEEK (850 MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND +10 DEG CELSIUS
IN BOTH MODELS DURING THIS PERIOD). HAVE FORECAST HIGHS FOR THURSDAY
IN THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S...AND MID 70S TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY AS A
SLIGHT WARMUP BEGINS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S
AND 50S.
THE WARMUP BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED BY SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVES OFFSHORE AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN. HIGHS FOR
SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 80S.
EXPECT RAINFREE WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH
TODAY...BEFORE DRIFTING NORTH TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
STRATUS OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND CURRENTLY AFFECTING OR NEAR THE
KGFL/KALB/KPOU TERMINALS...WILL GRADUALLY ERODE DURING THE MORNING.
THROUGH 13Z AT KGFL/KALB THE STRATUS SHOULD ERODE FAIRLY QUICKLY AND
HAVE ONLY FCST OCCASIONAL SCT CLOUDS AT KALB AT 2000 FEET UNTIL
THEN. BKN STRATUS AT 1000 FEET WILL BE FORECAST FOR KGFL WITH MVFR
VSBYS AS WELL DUE TO FOG. AFTER 13Z...VFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL/KALB
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS RETURNING LATER
TONIGHT DUE TO FOG.
STRATUS DECK WILL BE MOST PERSISTENT AT KPOU DUE TO A DEEPER LAYER
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT KPOU TO LINGER UNTIL MID
OR LATE MORNING (14Z) BEFORE HEATING TURNS IT INTO A CU DECK BETWEEN
3500 AND 4500 FEET. A TEMPO FOR MVFR VSBY DUE TO FOG WILL ALSO BE
FORECAST THROUGH 13Z. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z AT KPOU
WITH AN INCREASE IN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON
...BUT HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF AT THIS POINT.
SURFACE WINDS AT ALL THREE SITES WILL BE 7 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
LATE SUNDAY NITE THRU WED...VFR/MVFR...CHC SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY PM AND
EVENING.
THU...VFR.
FIRE WEATHER
IT NOWS LOOKS AS IF MOST OF OUR AREA WILL REMAIN DRY ONCE AGAIN. ANY
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH
OF ALBANY TODAY AND TONIGHT. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS MORE HUMIDITY
AND HEAT IS ENSUED...THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED STORMS WORKS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION. THE SAME RINGS TRUE FOR TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO BRING MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS IN FOR LATER
WEDNESDAY.
RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO THE 60S SOUTH OF ALBANY...50S ELSEWHERE
EXCEPT FOR A FEW 40S NORTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FULL
RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH DEW EXPECTED IN MOST PLACES. MINIMUM RH VALUES
LOOK TO BE BIT HIGHER COME MONDAY AFTERNOON...GENERALLY DROPPING NO
LOWER 50-60 PERCENT REGION WIDE.
A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE UNDER 10 MPH
BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ONCE AGAIN...NO MAJOR HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
TIME FRAME. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS TO THE SOUTH COULD PRODUCE
EXTREMELY LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE...WHILE THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION MIGHT NOT SEE ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
THE SAME SCENARIO RINGS TRUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALTHOUGH
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MIGHT BE A LITTLE BIT BETTER THAN TODAY. A
COLD FRONT MIGHT BRING MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS OUR WAY BY
WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...MAGLARAS
AVIATION...MAGLARAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page