277  
FXUS61 KALY 222000  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
400 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT  
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR TOMORROW, BRINGING ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS  
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION, ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES  
AND COOL TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH THIS STORM WILL MOVE OUT FOR SUNDAY,  
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
AROUND, MAINLY FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR  
THE START OF NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING ABOVE NORMAL  
THROUGH THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
 
 
AS OF 400 PM EDT...CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER  
THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY AND IS STARTING TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD  
TOWARDS OUR AREA. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, SWIRLING BANDS OF HIGH  
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY. SOME  
LOWER AND THICKER CLOUDS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO MAKE PROGRESS  
TOWARDS OUR AREA FROM PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY, AS LOW LEVEL  
WARM ADVECTION INCREASES THANKS TO A STREGTHENING LOW-LEVEL  
JET.  
 
CLOUDS LOOK TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING  
HOURS, BUT IT SHOULD STAY PRECIP-FREE THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT.  
AFTERWARD, HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE (SUCH AS THE 3KM HRRR AND  
NAMNEST) SUGGEST SPOTTY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL BE  
LIFTING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THANKS TO ISENTROPIC LIFT IN PLACE.  
THESE SHOWERS LOOK TO BE MAINLY FROM I-90 ON SOUTHWARD, BUT SOME  
LOCATIONS MAY SEE THE GROUND WET BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.  
 
WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND, TEMPS WON'T BE AS COOL AS  
THE PAST FEW NIGHTS, WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE LIFTING  
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, IT WILL BE OPENING UP AND  
WEAKENING AS MOVES WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AFT AND RUNS INTO  
RIDGING IN PLACE. THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL ALSO BE  
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TOWARDS WESTERN NEW YORK, ALTHOUGH A  
SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE  
MID-ATLANTIC STATES ALONG THE STORM'S WARM FRONT. WITH THIS  
SETUP IN PLACE, OUR AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERLY AND COOLER  
SIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM, WITH THE LIGHT LOW-LEVEL FLOW OUT OF  
THE EAST.  
 
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE  
DAY. ALTHOUGH IT WON'T BE RAINING THE ENTIRE DAY, IT WILL BE ON  
AND OFF AND MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON WHICH AREAS WILL SEE THE  
HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS. MOST OF THE PRECIP LOOKS  
FAIRLY LIGHT, ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MODERATE BURSTS FROM  
TIME TO TIME. THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER, BUT ANY  
INSTABILITY WILL BE ELEVATED DUE TO THE STRONG INVERSION AROUND  
850 HPA AND NO STORMS WILL BE STRONG/SEVERE.  
 
WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND, TEMPS WILL ONLY MAX OUT IN  
THE 60S ACROSS THE REGION, WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 50S FOR THE  
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.  
 
ON SATURDAY NIGHT, THE SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BE  
TAKING OVER AS IT LIFTS TOWARDS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. AS A  
RESULT, SHOWERS LOOK TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE, ALTHOUGH STILL  
CAN'T RULE ONE OUT. IT WILL STAY CLOUDY AND DAMP AND WITH THE  
RECENT RAINFALL, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A LOT OF FOG AND LOW  
CLOUDS REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LOWS  
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.  
 
ON SUNDAY, THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY BE APPROACHING FROM THE  
NORTHWEST, AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES IN  
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS LOOK TO OCCUR  
WITH THIS BOUNDARY, MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING  
HOURS. WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT,  
THERE COULD BE SOME SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND SOME THUNDER  
WILL BE AROUND AS WELL, ESPECIALLY BY LATE IN THE DAY, AS THE  
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ALLOWS FOR BETTER HEIGHT FALLS AND A MORE  
FAVORABLE SETUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY  
HIGH, SO ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS,  
BUT WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT ANY  
STORMS FROM GETTING TOO TALL OR STRONG. WITH SOME SUNSHINE,  
HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 70S, WITH EVEN SOME LOW 80S FOR FAR  
SOUTHERN AREAS.  
 
SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH ON SUNDAY  
EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND IT SHOULD START  
DRYING OUT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S  
WITH DECREASING DEWPOINTS A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  
DEPARTING TO OUR EAST WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE PRIMARILY  
OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MID WEEK WITH  
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST DURING THE MID-TO-  
LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD.  
 
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO OUR EAST  
AND CYCLONIC FLOW OVERHEAD, THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME  
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OVER  
THE NEW ENGLAND ZONES. STRONG UPPER RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND LINGER INTO  
WEDNESDAY. WARM TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND SUNNY  
CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HIGH PRESSURE. HOW STRONG AND HOW MUCH  
BLOCKING THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PROVIDES WILL BE A KEY PLAYER IN THE  
TIMING OF THE APPROACHING FRONT ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  
 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN  
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE  
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION SOMEWHERE  
IN THE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY TIME PERIOD. THE TIMING  
WILL BE CRUCIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND FOR NOW LOOKS  
UNFAVORABLE WITH AN OVERNIGHT PASSAGE AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS (THE  
ECMWF BEING EVEN SLOWER). WITH THE LOW APPROACHING AND A STRONG HIGH  
OFF THE EAST COAST THERE WILL BE A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOW  
LEVEL JET IN PLACE AS WELL. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED  
AS WE APPROACH MID NEXT WEEK.  
 
AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO OUR EAST CONDITIONS SHOULD START TO DRY  
OUT LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY AS SOME WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT  
RISES PUSH INTO THE REGION. GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SOME  
ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY  
FLOW AND POSSIBLY A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON  
FRIDAY SO HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR  
NOW. THE SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKE USHER IN SOME  
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY THE END  
OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE EXITING EAST AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE  
WEST. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS  
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO  
THE KPOU AREA BEFORE SUNRISE SATURDAY AND BY MID MORNING AT KALB,  
KPSF AND KGFL. INCLUDING VISIBILITIES AROUND 6SM BY 09Z AT KPOU AND  
BY 15Z AT KALB, KGFL AND KPSF. STEADIER SHOWERS COULD BEGIN AT KPOU  
BY 15Z BUT WILL TAKE UNTIL MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON AT KALB, KGFL  
AND KPSF. CEILINGS WILL DROP TO 2500-3000 FEET AT KPOU AND KPSF BUT  
WILL LIKELY STAY JUST ABOVE 3000 FEET AT KALB AND KGFL.  
 
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 6 KT OR LESS TONIGHT THEN EAST  
TO SOUTHEAST AT 6 KT OR LESS SATURDAY MORNING.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...FG...TSRA.  
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.  
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.  
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.  
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
CLOUDY AND DAMP CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN  
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND A  
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FOR SUNDAY. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL AS  
LOW AS 60 TO 75 PERCENT ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MOST OF THE  
REGION SHOULD SEE IN EXCESS OF A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL, WITH  
TOTALS GENERALLY BETWEEN ONE HALF INCH AND ONE INCH OF RAIN BY  
SUNDAY EVENING. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE 5 TO 10 MPH ON  
SATURDAY AND WILL BE SWITCHING TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO  
10 MPH ON SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.  
MOST OF THE ENTIRE HYDRO SERVICE AREA /HSA/ IS UNDER ABNORMALLY  
DRY CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO THE LATEST US DROUGHT MONITOR.  
 
AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, PERIODS OF SHOWERS  
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT AND  
SUNDAY EVENING. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO  
RANGE BETWEEN HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH, THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER  
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
MINIMAL RISES ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERWAYS. DRY WEATHER  
RETURNS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE MIDWEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD  
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH  
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING  
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE  
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS  
ON OUR WEBSITE.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS  
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS  
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS  
LONG TERM...CEBULKO  
AVIATION...NAS  
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS  
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA  
 
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