516
FXUS61 KALY 260245
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1045 PM EDT THU APR 25 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR AND COLD WEATHER
TONIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL. OVER THE WEEKEND, A WARM
FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS, ALONG WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
UPDATE
AS OF 10:40PM, NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE VALLEY HAVE
STAYED A BIT MORE ELEVATED THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT WITH ALB
SUSTAINED AROUND 10KTS. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES MILDER WITH
MANY STILL IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. ONCE THESE WINDS WEAKEN
AFTER MIDNIGHT, THE EFFECTS OF IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD
OCCUR LEADING TO A HIGHER RATE OF COOLING. GIVEN THIS THINKING,
WE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES THROUGH 06 UTC UPWARDS A FEW DEGREES
BUT STILL SHOW MANY REACHING INTO THE 20S BY 09 - 12 UTC.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION [7:20PM ET]...PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE AND WE ONLY ADJUSTED LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT
DOWNWARDS A DEGREE OR TWO (BLENDED IN NBM5TH PERCENTILE
GUIDANCE) GIVEN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. SUCH LOW DEW
POINTS IN THE TEENS COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE
TEMPERATURES THE OPPORTUNITY TO DROP WELL INTO THE 20S TONIGHT
(TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS). WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE
EXPECTED TONIGHT SO ANY SENSITIVE VEGETATION SHOULD BE BROUGHT
INDOORS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION [339 PM EDT]...A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE (AROUND 1032 MB) REMAINS OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC. OUR REGION CONTINUES TO BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE AREA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS COMPLETELY
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA, WITH NO CLOUD COVER CLOSE TO THE
AREA, SO IT SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR RIGHT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE HAS BEEN ALLOWING FOR VERY LOW
DEWPOINTS, WITH VALUES DOWN INTO THE TEENS.
FOR TONIGHT, THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
AND WILL BE CENTERED CLOSE TO THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
EXPECTED, HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE COLDER SIDE OF THE BLENDED
GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. THE GROWING SEASON HASN'T BEGUN YET ACROSS OUR AREA, BUT
A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING,
ALLOWING FOR A CLEAR AND CHILLY MORNING. THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL ONLY SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. ASIDE FROM A
FEW SPOTTY CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY FOR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS, IT
WILL BE ANOTHER FULLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS LOOK A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THURSDAY THANKS TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. HAVE ONCE AGAIN
FAVORED THE LOWER SIDE OF THE RH GUIDANCE, WITH DRY DEWPOINTS
AGAIN IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT, ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS
CHILLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT, AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND WILL BE
DEVELOPING BY LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FAIRLY CLEAR, ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM
THE WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH LOWS IN THE 30S,
ALTHOUGH SOME SHELTERED SPOTS (ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN VT) COULD
STILL FALL INTO THE 20S.
ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE TRYING TO STAY
ANCHORED IN PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THE BEST
FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL GENERALLY BE STAYING WEST OF THE AREA.
SKY COVER WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE DAY (MAINLY
NORTHWESTERN AREAS), AS A BAND OF SHOWERS HEADS INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. MUCH OF THIS WILL BE DRYING UP AS IT HEADS INTO
THE AREA THANKS TO THE DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS, BUT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT ON SATURDAY NIGHT,
AS SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TRY TO PUSH UP AND AROUND THE RIDGE.
SOME MODELS DO SHOW A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH IT'S STILL UNCERTAIN IF
THIS WILL BE IN OUR AREA OR NOT. WITH THE WARM FRONT COMING
THROUGH, IT WILL CLOUDY AND MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS, WITH
TEMPS IN THE 40S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MUCH MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
OUR REGION SHOULD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HAVE FAVORED THE WARMER SIDE OF THE BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR THESE
DAYS, WITH VALLEY HIGHS INTO THE 70S ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SOME SOUTHERN AREAS COULD EVEN BE REACHING INTO THE LOW 80S BY
MONDAY AS WELL. IN ADDITION, A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE RETURNING
MOISTURE TO THE REGION, SO DEWPOINTS WILL BE NOTICEABLY HIGHER
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH VALUES INTO THE 50S. MOST OF SUNDAY
AND MONDAY LOOK DRY AT THIS POINT, COULD A FEW POP UP SHOWERS
CAN'T BE RULED OUT, MAINLY DURING TIMES OF DIURNAL HEATING.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE GETTING CLOSE TO THE AREA FOR THE MID
WEEK. THERE'S STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING,
BUT SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD
AND ALONG THIS FRONT BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH CHANCE POPS MOST OF THE TIME, ALTHOUGH WE DO HAVE
SOME LIKELY POPS ON LATE TUESDAY FOR NORTHWESTERN AREAS BASED ON
THE LATEST NBM GUIDANCE. STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY IF ANY STORMS
WILL BE STRONG AT THIS TIME, AS IT WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE AND THE EXACT TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY.
DAYTIME TEMPS STILL LOOK MILD FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S.
IT MAY BE DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER BY THURSDAY, BUT STILL VERY
SEASONABLE WITH DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 60S AND DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN
INTO THE 40S.
AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 00 UTC FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES
AND SKC CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ALL THE TERMINALS.
LIGHT WINDS NEAR OR UNDER 5KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06 UTC
BEFORE BECOMING AND REMAINING NEARLY CALM.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/SPECIALE
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SPECIALE
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