235  
FXUS61 KALY 230215  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
915 PM EST WED NOV 22 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ALONG WITH DECREASING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER, BRISK AND  
CHILLY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. DRY AND CONTINUED CHILLY  
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL  
MODERATE ON FRIDAY, BEFORE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT RETURNS THE  
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
 
 
AS OF 915 PM EST...A COLD FRONT IS NOW LOCATED WELL-DOWNSTREAM  
OF THE AREA OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, AND COOLER AIR IS WORKING  
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT, BOTH ALOFT AND WITHIN THE  
LOW- LEVELS.  
 
INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW CLOUDS IN  
PLACE, AS THE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES IS  
ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF LOW STRATOCU CLOUDS. SOME BREAKS WILL  
START TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT, AS APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE  
OHIO VALLEY ALLOWS INVERSION LEVELS TO LOWER. BEFORE THAT  
OCCURS, THERE COULD BE SOME VERY LIGHT LAKE-EFFECT FLURRIES OR  
SNOW SHOWERS OVER FAR WESTERN AREAS, BUT LITTLE TO NO SNOW  
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE VERY LIGHT AND SHALLOW  
NATURE OF THE LAKE-EFFECT PRECIPITATION.  
 
THE APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR WINDS TO  
START TO DIMINISH TONIGHT. ALONG WITH DECREASING WIND, THE  
CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS FALL OVERNIGHT TO THE MID  
TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES  
BELOW NORMAL.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH, DRY WEATHER IS  
EXPECTED FOR THANKSGIVING DAY, ALTHOUGH IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE  
FAIRLY CHILLY. THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE IN THE  
MORNING HOURS, WITH A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER FOR THE AFTERNOON.  
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 30 IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO NEAR 40 IN  
THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.  
 
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE BY TO THE NORTH FOR THURSDAY  
EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT FOR  
MOST AREAS, ALTHOUGH THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS MAY BE  
CLOSE ENOUGH TO SEE A FEW PASSING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR  
FLURRIES. ANY ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE JUST AN INCH OR LESS,  
MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF OLD FORGE AND RAQUETTE LAKE.  
ELSEWHERE, IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHILLY WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY  
CLOUDY SKY, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY.  
WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE, TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER  
THAN RECENT DAYS, WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH  
THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS MAY START  
TO INCREASE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, AS THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO  
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY DRY  
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS COULD  
START TO SEE A SHOWER TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN  
THE 30S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO START FOLLOWED  
BY DRIER WEATHER DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  
 
ON SATURDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS NORTHEAST  
CANADA DRAGGING A WARM FRONT AND THEN A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.  
BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA, HOWEVER A  
SECONDARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION LATE AT  
NIGHT. MAINLY SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH A  
LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE  
NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE  
IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE  
MID 20S TO MID 30S.  
 
ON SUNDAY SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR  
WITH THE ACTIVITY DIMINISHING SUNDAY EVENING. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL  
BE IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER  
TEENS TO UPPER 20S.  
 
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE  
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM MID ATLANTIC  
STATES ON MONDAY AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND  
TUESDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID  
40S WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30. HIGHS ON TUESDAY  
WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE  
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. A RETURN TO SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED  
ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE  
IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.  
 
OVERALL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL WITH  
PRECIPITATION NEAR NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS WILL BECOME LESS IN COVERAGE EARLY THIS  
EVENING. THE SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT IN THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE  
WAKE OF THE COASTAL SYSTEM WITH VFR CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL  
START TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY, BUT SKIES  
SHOULD REMAIN VFR AS JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE  
APPROACHING THE AREA.  
 
THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING TO AROUND  
12 KTS OR LESS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE  
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5-9 KTS ON THURSDAY  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.  
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.  
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.  
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
MAINLY DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT INTO  
TOMORROW (THANKSGIVING DAY). RH VALUES WILL BE 75 TO 90 PERCENT  
TONIGHT AND FALL TO 45 TO 75 PERCENT TOMORROW, WITH THE HIGHEST  
VALUES IN NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5  
TO 15 MPH TONIGHT WITH SWITCH TO THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH  
TOMORROW.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
ASIDE FROM A FEW PASSING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR  
FLURRIES OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS, MAINLY DRY  
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A PASSING COLD  
FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN (OR POSSIBLY MOUNTAIN SNOW)  
SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL  
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AGAIN FOR WESTERN AREAS ON SUNDAY,  
OTHERWISE, MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO END THE WEEKEND  
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE  
TO NO IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. AS A RESULT, RIVER AND  
STREAM LEVELS WILL GENERALLY HOLD STEADY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE  
FAIRLY SEASONABLE FOR LATE NOVEMBER.  
 
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING  
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE  
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS  
ON OUR WEBSITE.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS  
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11  
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS  
LONG TERM...11  
AVIATION...BGM/11  
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS  
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS  
 
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