111  
FXUS61 KALY 241041  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
641 AM EDT MON JUL 24 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE WEEK WITH  
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM AS LOW PRESSURE  
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. BY THE MID WEEK PERIOD, TRANQUIL AND  
MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR JULY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WET  
WEATHER ARRIVES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
AS OF 630 AM EDT...BAND OF MODERATE RAINFALL WAS APPROACHING THE  
CATSKILLS AS FAVORABLE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL  
RATES. PER MESOSCALE OBSERVATIONS AND DUAL-POL RADAR AND MRMS  
RAINFALL ESTIMATES, THE ONLY AREA WITH A BIT HIGHER RAINFALL WAS  
INTO PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE A FLOOD ADVISORY WAS  
ISSUED EARLIER. OTHERWISE, CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK  
WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL WAS SOUTH OF I90  
WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST HRRR/NAM3KM REFLECTIVITY  
AND QPF FORECASTS. SO LITTLE CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST AT  
THIS TIME.  
 
PREV DISC...RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS WAS  
APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS RESULTING IN AN  
IMPRESSIVE AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, PER THE HOURLY MESOSCALE  
SPC WINDOWS, THAT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD.  
MEANWHILE, A QUASI- STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ALIGNED  
ACROSS NORTHERN PA INTO NORTHERN NJ WHICH IS GOOD DIVISION LINE  
FROM THE WARM AND NEAR TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE  
70S SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND 50S JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF  
ALBANY. EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THIS MORNING FOR THE RAINFALL TO  
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. PORTIONS OF THE  
CATSKILLS WITH A SOUTHEAST FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS  
COULD SEE ENHANCED RAINFALL RATES. THAT IS IF THE DEEPER  
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA INTO SOUTHERN NJ DOES  
NOT DISRUPT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO OUR REGION. SO NO FLOOD  
HEADLINES FOR THE REGION AT THIS TIME. AS THIS AFOREMENTIONED  
UPSTREAM WAVE TRANSVERSES AND CLEARS THE REGION BY EARLY THIS  
AFTERNOON, WE ARE LEFT WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW AND APPROACH OF THE  
UPPER LOW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT  
LAKES REGION. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO  
DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST EAST OF I81. HI-RES REFLECTIVITY SHORT-  
TERM MODELS POINT TOWARD A SCT-BKN LINE OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP  
AND APPROACH WESTERN AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SO WE WILL  
KEEP POPS A BIT HIGH ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TO ACCOUNT FOR  
THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO IMPACT THE REGION.  
 
AS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG WITH AN  
EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT AT THE SURFACE, WILL BE RATHER CHILLY AS  
LATEST LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR  
THIS MORNING WITH NEARLY STEADY VALUES THROUGH THE DAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, UPPER LOW WILL TRANSVERSE EASTERN NY  
INTO WESTERN NE WHERE WE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS INTO THE  
REGION. THIS WILL KEEP CHC-SCT POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION  
WITH OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO  
TUESDAY MORNING AS COLD POOL AND DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY  
ADVECTION WILL BE MAXIMIZED. NOW, TIMING OF THIS WAVE IS IN GOOD  
AGREEMENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON  
HOURS. AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES, THIS SHOULD SUPPRESS ADDITIONAL  
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.  
CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO BREAK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE  
REGION LATE IN THE DAY BUT OVERALL A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY. WITH  
THESE CLOUDS, STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL  
AS HIGHS MAINLY INTO THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE 50S AND  
LOWER 60S.  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT, RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER,  
MOISTURE MAY BECOME TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AS WE  
WILL KEEP PARTLY CLOUDY SKY FORECAST FOR NOW. THERE COULD BE  
SOME PATCHY FOG WHERE SKIES DO ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING ALONG  
WITH LIGHT WINDS AS GROUND WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOIST.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE LATE WEEK  
PERIOD, AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES  
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES.  
 
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS A SURFACE HIGH  
GRADUALLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO INCREASE FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, AS  
A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ALONG A COLD  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH A HUMID  
AIR MASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY, SOME  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON  
INTO THURSDAY EVENING. LOWS ON WED & THURS NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN  
THE 60S WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR THURSDAY.  
 
THE MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF  
THE SURFACE LOW BUT IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGH  
FRIDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS THROUGH OR NEAR OUR AREA.  
THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS LOOK TO EXIT LATE FRIDAY  
NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR A DRY BUT COOL START TO THE WEEKEND. DAYTIME  
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE  
60S, ALONG WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL IMPACT THE REGION  
TODAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE REGION.  
 
RAINFALL IS BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION EARLY THIS  
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE AREA BUT ARE  
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AS STEADIER RAINFALL MOVES OVER THE TAF  
SITES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER IS ALSO  
POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME. POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL COULD REDUCE  
VIS DOWN TO IFR OR BELOW AT TIMES THROUGH MID MORNING.  
 
THE STEADIEST RAINFALL SHOWERS WILL START TO TAPER OFF BY LATE  
MORNING, BUT ADDITIONAL ON AND OFF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CAN BE  
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WITH PLENTY OF  
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION, EXPECT  
MVFR (POTENTIALLY VFR AT KALB) CONDITIONS FOR CIGS TO CONTINUE  
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY, ALTHOUGH SOME IMPROVEMENT IN  
VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED. E-NE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5-10 KTS,  
ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR KPSF LATER THIS  
AFTERNOON.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.  
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.  
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.  
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
THE AREA WILL RECEIVE A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY WITH  
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. NO FIRE  
WEATHER RELATED CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
PERIOD OF RAINFALL WILL TRANSVERSE THE REGION AS EXPECTING QPF  
AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 1 1/2 INCHES. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY  
OCCUR ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND  
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS WOULD  
OCCUR WITH THE HEAVIER RAINFALL ALONG WITH SOME MINOR FLOODING  
OF POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS POSSIBLE. WE WILL WATCH FOR  
CATSKILLS ENHANCEMENT AS SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN  
PLACE THROUGH THIS MORNING.  
 
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK WITH MORE CHANCES FOR  
RAINFALL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  
 
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING  
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE  
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS  
ON OUR WEBSITE.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...BGM  
NEAR TERM...BGM  
SHORT TERM...BGM  
LONG TERM...FRUGIS/JVM  
AVIATION...JVM  
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM  
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM  
 
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