351  
FXUS61 KALY 241438  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
1038 AM EDT TUE APR 24 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FURTHER EAST OF NEW  
ENGLAND TODAY WITH ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND  
FAIR WEATHER. CLOUDS INCREASE QUICKLY LATE IN THE DAY WITH RAIN  
OVERSPREADING THE REGION TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM  
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO  
THURSDAY, AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST OF UPSTATE NEW  
YORK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
AS OF 1038 AM EDT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE /1032 HPA/ IS NOW LOCATED  
SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND CONTINUES TO DEPART OFF TO THE  
EAST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER  
EASTERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY. A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH  
IS SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND A CLOSED H500 CIRCULATION  
WILL BE OVER THE TN VALLEY. SOME THIN CIRRUS CONTINUE TO MOVE  
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BASED ON THE GOES-16 CLEAN IR  
CHANNEL, BUT SOME SUNSHINE WILL MIX WITH HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE  
REST OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE  
RIDGING SHOULD LAST MOST OF THE DAY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING,  
THICKENING AND LOWERING SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY IN THE MID PM  
TOWARDS SUNSET.  
 
ANOTHER DRY AND MILD DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPS 5 TO 7 DEGREES  
ABOVE NORMAL. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 15  
MPH WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN THE VALLEY AREAS AND  
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
TONIGHT...THE TRENDS SLOWED SLIGHTLY ON THE  
NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CMC/HREFS FOR THE ONSET OF THE WARM ADVECTION  
RAINFALL, BUT OVERALL THE THICKENING AND LOWERING OF THE CLOUDS  
IS EXPECTED WITH RAINFALL OVER SPREADING MOST OF THE REGION  
SHORTLY BEFORE OVER JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE  
WILL INITIALLY BE DRY, AND IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE SO  
WE BEGAN THE FORECAST WITH LIGHT RAIN. AFTER 06Z, THE RAIN WILL  
BECOME STEADIER, AS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ON THE 290K  
SFC. THE SOUTHEAST TO EAST LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ADVECTING  
IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE. POPS WERE INCREASED CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT  
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY 6 AM/WED. LOWS WILL BE OF THE WET BULB  
VARIETY, AS THEY WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH MAINLY  
MID AND UPPER 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OVER THE  
HIGHER TERRAIN.  
 
WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF RAIN, OCCASIONALLY MODERATE IN INTENSITY  
WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 1-1.25" WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.  
A GOOD OL' FASHION SOAKING RAINFALL IS IN THE CARDS. THE KIND  
THAT APRILS ARE NOTED FOR IN THE NORTHEAST, SO THE MAY FLOWERS  
COME TO FULL BLOOM. THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH AND  
ATTENDANT SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT CONTINUE TO UTILIZE ATLANTIC  
MOISTURE. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL TRY TO  
INTERACT WITH THE SYSTEM DURING THE AFTERNOON, AS IT APPROACHES  
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A PSEUDO WARM SECTOR TRIES TO POKE  
INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF TO THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM  
IS PAINTING AN AXIS OF SHOWALTER INDICES IN THE 0C TO -2C RANGE  
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRI CITIES. THE GFS IS FURTHER SOUTH  
ACROSS THE MID- HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT. THIS IS HARD TO IGNORE, AND  
A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS ADDED DURING THE AFTERNOON,  
ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. RAINFALL  
RATES COULD APPROACH A TENTH TO A QUARTER IN AN INCH HOUR  
BRIEFLY. PWATS CONTINUE AT 1 TO 2 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL BASED ON  
THE LATEST 00Z GEFS. HIGHS IN THE RAIN COOLED AIR WILL BE  
MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH A FEW SPOT 60F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON  
VALLEY.  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STEADIER RAINFALL TRANSITIONS TO SHOWERY  
ACTIVITY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TURNING NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH  
THE NORTHERN UPSTREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CLOSING POTENTIALLY OFF  
OVER UPSTATE NY, AS ADVERTISED ON THE PAST FEW RUN OF THE ECMWF.  
A DRY SLOT MAY SNEAK INTO LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. WE  
LOWERED POPS SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT SOUTH OF ALBANY WITH CHC  
VALUES, AND KEPT LIKELY VALUES TO THE NORTH AND EAST. LOWS WILL  
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH AND WEST OF THE  
CAPITAL REGION, AND MID AND UPPER 40S SOUTH AND EAST, AS THE  
OCCLUDED FRONT SLIPS THROUGH.  
 
THURSDAY...THE NAM/ECMWF HAVE THE COLD POOL AND ASSOCIATED UPPER  
LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL NY TO NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS ROCKETS  
IT NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK. WE LEANED  
CLOSER TO THE NAM/ECMWF WITH INSTABILITY SHOWERS LIKELY WITH THE  
COLD POOL AND MID-LEVEL STEEP LAPSE RATES. IF WE GET SOME  
HEATING THROUGH THE CLOUDS AND WARM UP THE TEA KETTLE, THEN THE  
ATMOSPHERIC TEA KETTLE EFFECT COULD KICK IN WITH CELLULAR  
ACTIVITY BUBBLING UP WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING SMALL  
HAIL RANGING FROM PEAS TO CANDY M&MS/REESE'S PIECES.  
INSTABILITY LOOKS MEAGER ON THU. HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES  
OR MORE BELOW NORMAL WITH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST OF THE  
LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND MID 40S TO MID 50S OVER THE HILLS AND  
MOUNTAINS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,  
WITH DRIER WEATHER TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK.  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE DEPARTING TO OUR  
NORTHEAST WITH LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND  
SOUTHERN VERMONT. SOME SNOW COULD BE MIXED IN AT THE HIGHER  
ELEVATIONS. ELSEWHERE, THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS WEAK  
RIDGING PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.  
 
FRIDAY'S WEATHER REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS MODEL GUIDANCE STRUGGLES WITH  
A PIECE OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE  
CAROLINAS. THE 00Z/GFS DEVELOPS THE WAVE AND LIFTS IT ALONG THE MID-  
ATLANTIC/NJ COASTLINE, SPREADING RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHEREAS THE 00Z/ECMWF WEAKENS THE WAVE AS IT  
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD, KEEPING THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL EAST OF THE  
REGION. HAVE THEREFORE SETTLED CLOSE TO THE ER SUPERBLEND SOLUTION,  
ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF  
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  
 
SATURDAY ALSO LOOKS SHOWERY AS A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH  
AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWINGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO OUR  
REGION. MANY OF THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE  
HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT PLENTY OF  
CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS  
TROUGH. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S  
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  
WITH THE TROUGH OVERHEAD, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL COOL INTO THE 30S AREA-  
WIDE.  
 
SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A DRY BUT COOL DAY AS TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW  
NORMAL. CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS  
TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOW 40S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOW 50S  
ELSEWHERE.  
 
RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE EASTERN CONUS MONDAY, RESULTING IN A  
MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S TO  
MID 60S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TODAY AS THE NEXT STORM  
SYSTEM APPROACHES. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING  
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST  
00Z/WED. RAIN WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM  
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, IMPACTING KPOU FIRST. THE STEADIER  
RAINFALL WITH DETERIORATING FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE  
AFTER 03Z/WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS COULD DROP TO IFR IN THE  
HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.  
 
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON  
TO 8-12 KT, AND MAY BECOME GUSTY AT KALB AND KPSF BY LATE  
AFTERNOON, PERHAPS REACHING 20-25 KT.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.  
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.  
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.  
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.  
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FURTHER EAST OF NEW  
ENGLAND TODAY WITH ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND  
FAIR WEATHER. CLOUDS INCREASE QUICKLY LATE IN THE DAY WITH RAIN  
OVERSPREADING THE REGION TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM  
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL  
LAST INTO THURSDAY.  
 
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS  
AFTERNOON. THEY WILL RISE TO 75 TO 95 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH RAIN  
MOVING IN. A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED DURING THIS  
STRETCH AT 70 TO 100 PERCENT.  
 
THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY WITH  
SOME GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH. EXPECT SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OF 5 TO  
10 MPH TONIGHT, AND NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 MPH OR LESS  
ON WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE NEXT EXPECTED THE NEXT  
SEVERAL DAYS.  
 
ONE MORE DRY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES, BUT SURPRESSED DEW POINTS WHICH WILL LIMIT  
SUBSTANTIAL SNOW MELT OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE SOME  
EVAPORATION AND SUBLIMATION OF THE SNOW PACK AND SNOW MELT  
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE AND STRONG  
LATE APRIL SUNSHINE. LIMITED SNOW MELT WILL RUN OFF INTO AREA  
RIVERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BECAUSE OF THE EVAPORATION.  
 
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ARRIVES TONIGHT. IT  
IS EXPECTED TO FALL MAINLY AS RAIN. THE RAIN WILL PERSIST  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS  
THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT INTO  
THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED IN THE THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH  
TO INCH AND A HALF RANGE WITH A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.  
 
THE LATEST MMEFS GUIDANCE SHOWS MINOR RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND  
CREEKS AT THIS TIME WITH THE GEFS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A FEW  
POINTS REACHING MINOR FLOODING DEPENDENT ON SNOW MELT WITH THE  
QPF. HOWEVER, THE GEFS CONTINUE TO OVER DO THE SNOW MELT THE  
PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. A FEW RIVER POINTS MAY TOUCH ACTION STAGE  
LATE THIS WEEK BASED ON THE NERFC FORECASTS DEPENDING ON HOW  
MUCH SNOW MELT AND RAINFALL COMBINE INTO RUN OFF INTO RIVERS.  
 
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR FLOWS TO START TO DECREASE  
LATE IN THE WEEK.  
 
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING  
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE  
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS  
ON OUR WEBSITE.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...WASULA  
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA  
SHORT TERM...WASULA  
LONG TERM...JVM  
AVIATION...JVM  
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA  
HYDROLOGY...NAS/WASULA  
 
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