014  
FXUS61 KALY 261037  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
637 AM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED BY TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY WILL  
RETURN AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. DUE TO CHILLY TEMPERATURES IN  
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION, AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE.  
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH TONIGHT AS WARMER AIR  
CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE NEXT SURGE OF  
MOISTURE ARRIVES THROUGH MONDAY WITH MORE RAINFALL EXPECTED TO  
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ON TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REPLACES THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY  
WITH THIS UPDATE...  
 
AS OF 630 AM EDT...A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS HAS ADVECTED  
INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WHERE SEVERAL AREAS ARE NEAR OR BELOW  
FREEZING WITH WET BULB PROFILES MAINLY BELOW FREEZING. REGIONAL  
UPSTREAM RADAR MOSAIC REVEALS AN INCREASING BAND OF  
PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE  
SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND ALONG THE NJ/NY STATE BORDER. THIS IS  
ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION  
TODAY. HOWEVER, ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE RATHER LIGHT WITH WIND  
MAGNITUDES LESS THAN IDEAL FOR ENHANCED LIFT. IN FACT, PER THE  
RAP/HRRR, REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS WERE LESS THAN ORGANIZED ACROSS  
THE REGION. AS THE WARMER AIR FILTERS IN ALOFT, COLDER  
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE ALL SUGGEST A PERIOD OF MAINLY  
FREEZING RAIN WITH THE GREATEST THREAT ACROSS THE TERRAIN. AFTER  
EXTENSIVE COORDINATION, WE DECIDED TO CHANGE HEADLINES TO THE  
GREATEST IMPACT HAZARD FOR FREEZING RAIN. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL  
GENERALLY BE A TRACE TO UP TOO ONE TENTH OF INCH ACROSS THE  
DACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS (WHICH IS MAINLY  
TONIGHT). THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION  
THIS EVENING AS MID LEVEL DRY SLOT BEHIND THE DEPARTING MID  
LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE TRACKS TO THE EAST. THEN A MORE  
PRONOUNCED ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY  
MORNING. LOW LEVEL JET MAGNITUDES INCREASE TO GREATER THAN 30KTS  
WHICH CONTINUES THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME. HOWEVER, FOR  
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS, THE COLDER AIR MAY LINGER A BIT  
LONGER AS LOW LEVEL AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW REMAINS EASTERLY AS WE  
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. FOR THE REMAINDER  
OF THE REGION, WE WILL WATCH THOSE TEMPERATURES CLOSELY AND  
EITHER ISSUE SPS'S OR EXPAND BRIEFLY THE WSW.  
 
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE 30S AND NOT MUCH CHANGE  
EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A  
WARMING PATTERN REDUCING ANY ADDITIONAL THREAT FOR FREEZING  
RAIN. NEXT WAVE APPROACHES AND CROSS MOST OF THE REGION MONDAY  
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN, DRIZZLE AND SOME FOG THROUGH THE SHORT  
TERM. TEMPERATURES MODERATE INTO THE 40S WITH JUST A FEW DEGREES  
COOLER AT NIGHT BUT REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT UNSETTLED, BUT A BRIEF BREAK IN  
THE ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF  
THE WEEK.  
 
THE MODELS STILL SHOW SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE EXPECTED  
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE ALL MODELS  
AND ENSEMBLES SHOW AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON TUESDAY,  
THE GFS AND MANY MEMBERS OF THE GEFS SHOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE  
ALONG THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FOR DURING THE DAY. THIS  
COULD ALLOW FOR A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A  
STEADY RAIN FOR DURING THE DAY. MEANWHILE, THE ECMWF AND GGEM SHOW  
THIS WAVE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC, SO WHILE  
SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THANKS TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, ANY  
STEADIER RAINFALL WOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH RAINFALL  
STILL EXPECTED DUE TO AT LEAST THE FRONT, WILL GO WITH HIGH CHC TO  
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, TEMPS SHOULD  
WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S, DESPITE CLOUD COVER THANKS TO  
A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MILD TEMPS ALOFT.  
 
SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND THESE  
SHOWERS COULD EVEN END AS SOME SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE HIGHEST  
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MTS AND ADIRONDACKS FOR LATE  
TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA. OTHERWISE, RAIN  
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AS THE FRONT HEADS EASTWARD AND TEMPS FALL  
INTO THE 30S. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD BE LIMITED TO JUST A  
COATING AND ONLY FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.  
 
BEHIND THE FRONT, SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY.  
THERE STILL MAY BE A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN  
THANKS TO THE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH,  
OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE DRY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. TEMPS WILL  
BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST AREAS, ALTHOUGH DOWNSLOPING  
AND BREAKS OF SUNSHINE COULD AID THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID-HUDSON  
VALLEY TO REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.  
 
DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY  
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE OR JUST  
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.  
 
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE REGION BETWEEN FRIDAY AND  
SATURDAY. SOME MODELS SHOW A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH  
A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW, WHILE OTHERS KEEP THIS WHOLE SYSTEM  
SOUTH OF THE REGION. FOR NOW, WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE,  
WHICH IS BASICALLY CHC POPS AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AT THIS TIME, VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES AS LOW LEVEL  
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO EXTENDS ITS INFLUENCES INTO THE REGION. SO  
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS UNTIL LATE  
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON, AS LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SOME FROZEN  
PRECIP DEVELOPS (LIKELY FREEZING RAIN). STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY  
EXISTS WITH REGARDS TO PRECIP TYPES INITIALLY, WITH SLEET AND/OR  
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT KGFL/KPSF. ALL SITES  
SHOULD CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN BY MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD  
POINT TOWARD MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS  
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  
 
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE NORTHEAST AROUND 5 KT, BECOMING SOUTHEAST  
AROUND 5-10 KT ON SUNDAY. POSSIBLE LLWS LATER TONIGHT INTO THE  
BERKSHIRES AS WE WILL PLACE THIS INTO THE TAF AT THIS TIME FOR  
KPSF.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...DZ.  
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.  
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.  
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
THE SNOW PACK, WHILE MELTING, REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF  
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE WEATHER PATTERN  
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK  
WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN AND WINTRY MIXED PRECIPITATION. DRIER  
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL IMPACT THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA  
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  
 
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION INTO  
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS A MIX OF  
RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN AND TRANSITION TO MAINLY RAIN FOR MONDAY  
AND TUESDAY. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.  
 
THE LATEST MMEFS FORECAST INDICATES A FEW LOCATIONS GOING INTO  
ACTION STAGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR  
POTENTIAL OF ANY FLOODING AT THIS TIME. SOME SNOW MELT IS LIKELY  
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  
 
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING OBSERVED  
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE VISIT THE  
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR  
WEBSITE.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR  
NYZ032-038>041-047-048-051-058-063-083.  
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ033-  
042-082.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT  
MONDAY FOR VTZ013>015.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...BGM  
NEAR TERM...BGM  
SHORT TERM...BGM  
LONG TERM...FRUGIS  
AVIATION...BGM/JPV  
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA  
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA  
 
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