958  
FXUS61 KALY 230243  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
1043 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A MORE HUMID AIR MASS WILL RETURN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY  
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, ALONG WITH INCREASING  
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE  
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD  
CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT, BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF SATURDAY AS A  
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. ANOTHER UPPER  
LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD TRIGGER A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM  
SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 1043 PM EDT...A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH  
THE WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT OVER  
WEST- CENTRAL NY EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE LOWER HUDSON  
VALLEY AND LONG ISLAND CONTINUES TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH/NORTHEAST  
TONIGHT. THE 00Z KALY SOUNDING CONTINUES TO BE DRY IN THE LOW-  
LEVELS WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BETWEEN 7-12 KFT AGL. THE PWAT  
HAS INCREASED FROM 0.70" AT 12Z TO 1.32". WE SLOWED DOWN THE  
TREND FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS INTO  
LOCATIONS WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY UNTIL AROUND  
MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE LATEST NAM12 AND THE 3-KM  
NAM AND HRRR HAVE BETTER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AHEAD  
OF THE WARM FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BETWEEN 05Z-09Z  
WITH SHOWALTER INDICES OF 0 TO -3C ON THE NAM AND MUCAPE CLOSE  
TO 1000 J/KG. THE WARM ADVECTION AND H1000-850 THETA-E ADVECTION  
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH SFC DEWPTS RISING INTO THE 60S AND  
PWATS TO 1.4-1.7 INCHES. SOME BRIEF BURSTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL  
WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOWER CHANCE POPS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE  
CAPITAL REGION ARE LIKELY TONIGHT, AS THE BETTER SYNOPTIC  
FORCING IS NORTH AND WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S TO  
CLOSE TO 70F IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND CAPITAL DISTRICT.  
 
FRIDAY COULD BE AN ACTIVE DAY AS COMBINATION OF HIGH MOISTURE  
CONTENT, APPROACHING PRE-FRONTAL AND MAIN FRONTAL ZONES AND  
POSITIVE TILTED TROUGH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME TRAINING CELLS TO  
EVOLVE. QUESTION IS OVERALL INSTABILITY AND LATEST MODEL TRENDS  
ARE LESS WITH THE QPF. YET IF WE ARE ABLE TO SEE BREAKS IN THE  
OVERCAST THEN GREATER INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED HENCE THE  
MARGINAL RISK CONTINUED BY SPC. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM  
HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS ARE AT OR ABOVE 2" BUT THROUGH THE DAY  
NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. WE WILL  
CONTINUE TO WATCH AND COLLABORATE ALONG WITH FUTURE UPSTREAM  
TRENDS AND GUIDANCE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
FRIDAY NIGHT, AS UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY, AND THE LOW/MID LEVEL  
THERMAL GRADIENT SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST, CHANCES FOR  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE WELL THROUGH THE NIGHT.  
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE, AS PWAT'S REMAIN CLOSE  
TO 2 INCHES, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NEAR, AND TO THE SOUTH AND  
EAST OF ALBANY. IT WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID, WITH LOW  
TEMPERATURES ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.  
 
SATURDAY, STILL COULD BE A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST  
IN THE MORNING, AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY SETTLES SOUTHEAST,  
WHILE SOME OF THE REMNANTS, OR MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH CINDY  
RIDES JUST SOUTH/EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOCALLY HEAVY  
DOWNPOURS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW  
CT, THE MID HUDSON VALLEY, AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES. THE MAIN  
BAND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE SOUTH/EAST OF THE  
REGION BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, LINGERING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND A  
POSSIBLE WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER AN ADDITIONAL  
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE  
EASTERN CATSKILLS INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. IT SHOULD  
GRADUALLY BECOME LESS HUMID IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH LATE DAY HIGH  
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 70S ACROSS HIGHER  
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS, TO THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS  
VALLEY AREAS WITHIN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT, GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS, AFTER ANY ISOLATED  
EVENING SHOWERS DISSIPATE. IT SHOULD BE COOLER, WITH LOW  
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S.  
 
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT, A COUPLE OF STRONG YET COMPACT UPPER LEVEL  
IMPULSES LOOK TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUNDAY. STRONG  
DYNAMICAL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THESE IMPULSES COULD LEAD TO  
AT LEAST ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH THE  
AREAS WHICH MAY BE AFFECTED OVERALL COULD REMAIN LIMITED SINCE  
THESE SYSTEMS ARE FAIRLY COMPACT. WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTY  
WINDS/HAIL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN FAIRLY LOW WET BULB ZERO  
LEVELS AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT, EVEN THOUGH THE TOPS OF ANY  
CONVECTION MAY REMAIN RELATIVELY SHALLOW/LOW TOPPED. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 70S IN VALLEYS, WITH  
MAINLY 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. AFTER ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION  
DISSIPATES SUNDAY EVENING, EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES  
TO REMAIN, WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S FOR  
MANY AREAS, WITH PERHAPS SOME 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE  
ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A MEAN LONGWAVE MID AND  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE  
WEEK. COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY FOR  
EARLY SUMMER. SOME RIDGING MAY BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE THE NORTHEAST  
BY THURSDAY.  
 
MON-MON NIGHT...A DEEPENING AND AMPLIFYING H500 LONG-WAVE TROUGH  
WILL BE SETTING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, OH VALLEY INTO THE  
NORTHEAST. A SERIES OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS WILL BE IMPACTING THE  
FORECAST AREA MIGRATING THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  
HEIGHTS WILL BE FALLING ACROSS THE REGION WITH A COLD FRONT  
INITIALLY DESCENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY,  
BUT WILL LIKELY LIFT NORTH LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE SHORT-WAVE  
TROUGH. THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MODEST AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY.  
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN  
THE FORECAST DURING THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID  
70S IN MOST OF THE VALLEY AREAS WITH UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S OVER THE  
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE COOL CYCLONIC FLOW. THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME  
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING  
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION, AS H850  
TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL  
ACCORDING THE LATEST 12Z GEFS.  
 
TUE-TUE NIGHT...THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM HAVE A STRONGER SHORT-  
WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH IMPACTING THE REGION ON TUE.  
AT THE SFC, A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LIFTING NORTH OF THE  
REGION TOWARDS THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING  
THROUGH IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE CYCLONIC  
VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH SOME THERMAL ADVECTION WILL GENERATE ENOUGH  
SYNOPTIC LIFT FOR SHOWERS LIKELY ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION  
NORTH, WITH HIGH CHC POPS TO THE SOUTH. THE AMOUNT OF HEATING AND  
SFC DESTABILIZATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN, BUT THERE COULD BE ENOUGH  
INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT  
CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS IN AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO MON  
WITH 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION WHICH IS ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES  
BELOW NORMAL.  
 
WED-THU...MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL STILL BE  
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE  
TROUGH AXIS ATTEMPTING TO MOVE DOWNSTREAM. WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT  
AND WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW, THEN SOME  
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. A LITTLE  
MORE SUNSHINE BEFORE THE POP-UP SHOWERS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE  
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND MID AND UPPER 70S  
IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF RIDGING BUILDING  
IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST WED NIGHT-THU WITH HEIGHTS RISING ACROSS  
THE REGION BASED ON THE 12Z EC AND THE WPC GUIDANCE. THE GFS WANTS  
TO THE CLOSE THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH WITH N/NW  
FLOW ISOLATED-SCT SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WE TRENDED WED  
NIGHT DRY, AND BASED ON A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH WE KEPT A SLIGHT  
CHC OF SHOWERS IN THE VALLEY AREAS IN THE GRIDS DURING THE DAY, AND  
A VERY LOW CHC OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, SOUTHERN GREENS,  
NORTHERN CATSKILLS, AND THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. AGAIN, THIS DAY  
IS TRENDING DRIER IF THE 12Z EC DOES NOT CLOSE THE UPPER LOW OFF  
LIKE THE LATEST 12Z GFS.  
 
OVERALL, TEMPS LOOK BELOW NORMAL IN THE LONG TERM WITH PCPN NORMAL  
TO ABOVE NORMAL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND  
TONIGHT WITH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, AS THE  
REGION WILL GET INTO A WARM SECTOR. THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH  
FROM THE WEST LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH  
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY TONIGHT WITH MID AND HIGH  
CLOUDS OVER THE TERMINALS. EXPECT CIGS TO CONTINUE TO LOWER TO  
5-8 KFT AGL WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM  
CLOSE TO KGFL. WE PLACED SOME VCSH GROUPS FOR KGFL/KALB/KPSF IN  
THE 08Z-09Z TIME FRAME. THE INCREASE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY  
ALLOW FOR SOME VSBYS TO GET IN THE 4-6SM RANGE WITH THE BEST  
CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS NEAR KPOU. PROB30 GROUPS WERE USED FOR A  
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 11-15Z AT KGFL/KPSF AND 14-18Z  
AT KALB/KPOU. IT IS NOT CLEAR CUT, BUT ENTERING THE WARM SECTOR  
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR VSBYS AND  
POSSIBLY CIGS FOR A BRIEF TIME. AFTER 18Z, VFR CONDITIONS WILL  
RETURN WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CLOSE  
TO 00Z/FRI, BUT OUR CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN  
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME IN TERMS OF CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 4-7 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND  
VARIABLE TONIGHT AT KGFL/KPOU, BUT REMAIN STEADY AT KALB/KPSF.  
THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME  
GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE AT KALB/KPSF IN THE LATE MORNING  
INTO THE AFTERNOON. STRONGER WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH ANY  
THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.  
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.  
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.  
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.  
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.  
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.  
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TONIGHT INTO  
FRIDAY, ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.  
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT,  
BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES  
THROUGH AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL  
DISTURBANCE COULD TRIGGER A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM  
SUNDAY.  
 
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 80  
AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. MINIMUM RH VALUES ON FRIDAY WILL BE  
AROUND 55 TO 70 PERCENT.  
 
WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS ON  
FRIDAY WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO  
15 MPH, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE.  
 
WINDS WILL BE STRONGER, AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR  
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WELL WEST OF ALBANY EARLY THIS  
EVENING.  
 
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO MOVE IN  
TONIGHT, AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM GRADUALLY  
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL BECOME MORE HUMID, SO THERE IS  
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY  
EVENING. SOME URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND ISOLATED FLASH  
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS. BASIN AVERAGE  
RAINFALL FORECAST TO BE AROUND A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN  
INCH, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE PERSISTENT  
THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WITH LOCALLY HEAVY  
DOWNPOURS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING FROM THE CAPITAL  
REGION AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.  
 
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH  
JUST A FEW SHOWERS AROUND, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  
 
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING OBSERVED  
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE VISIT THE  
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR  
WEBSITE.  
 

 
   
EQUIPMENT
 
 
KGFL AIRPORT OBSERVATION HAS BEEN INTERMITTENTLY MISSING AGAIN  
AS TECHNICIANS CONTINUE TO TROUBLESHOOT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO  
MONITOR AND UPDATE THIS STATEMENT AS NEEDED.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...KL/BGM/WASULA  
NEAR TERM...BGM/WASULA  
SHORT TERM...KL/JPV  
LONG TERM...WASULA  
AVIATION...WASULA  
FIRE WEATHER...KL/JPV  
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV  
EQUIPMENT...WFO ALY  
 
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