122  
FXUS61 KALY 232311  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
711 PM EDT SAT SEP 23 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER  
THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, PROVIDING DRY  
CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES  
COULD REACH RECORD HIGH LEVELS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
 
 
AS OF 715 PM EDT, HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT IS  
PROVIDING A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS  
SLOW TO PUSH INTO OUR REGION. THE CLEAR SKY AND NEARLY CALM  
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SOME FOG WILL FORM  
ON RIVERS, LAKES AND SWAMPS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S  
WITH LOWER/MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
THE CORE OF THE HEAT WILL SETTLE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH  
AND WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH  
TUESDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY COULD TURN THE  
SURFACE WINDS TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT WINDS  
STILL EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT.  
 
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY AS WELL AND THE  
COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL MAKE IT FEEL  
LIKE SUMMER. DEW POINTS WILL RISE SOLIDLY INTO THE 60S AND WITH  
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90, HEAT INDICES COULD PEAK IN  
THE LOWER 90S IN SOME AREAS. THE CORE OF THE HEAT COULD GET  
SQUEEZED TO THE NORTH AND WEST DEPENDING ON HOW THE BACKDOOR  
BOUNDARY MOVES AND IF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGING GETS SPLIT BY THE  
BOUNDARY.  
 
SO, RECORD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS BOTH SUNDAY AND  
MONDAY AND WHETHER WE REACH 90 OR NOT IN SOME AREAS IS STILL YET  
TO BE SEEN WITH THE LATE SEPTEMBER SUN ANGLE AND LIMITED  
MIXING DUE TO SUCH LIGHT WINDS AND IF THE CORE OF THE HEAT GETS  
SPLIT DUE TO THE BACKDOOR WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES  
COULD FLIRT WITH 90 AGAIN TUESDAY IN SOME AREAS. THERE COULD BE  
AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS  
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH OUR AREA STILL UNDER THE  
INFLUENCE OF AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE, WHILE HURRICANE  
MARIA WILL LIKELY BE POSITIONED SOMEWHERE EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS OF  
NORTH CAROLINA. ALSO, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH EASTWARD FROM  
CENTRAL/NORTHERN NY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE FRONT MAY HAVE ENOUGH  
LIFT/MOISTURE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS. THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH  
INSTABILITY FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TOO, BUT WILL KEEP MENTION AT  
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW. SHOWERS LOOK TO LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT  
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  
 
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY  
NIGHT, AS A FLAT UPPER TROUGH SETTLES IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND  
INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY DRY AND COOLER  
CONDITIONS FOR OUR AREA AND MARIA GETTING PUSHED OUT TO SEA, WELL  
SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL  
HURRICANE CENTER FOR ALL OFFICIAL FORECASTS WITH MARIA AT  
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE SEPTEMBER ON  
FRIDAY WITH A BRISK NORTHERLY BREEZE. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND  
DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE IN NEXT SATURDAY, BRINGING  
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT COOL-DOWN IN  
ITS WAKE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE  
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY, PROVIDING CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.  
 
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH CALM WINDS  
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS  
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT FAVORED SITES KGFL/KPSF LATE TONIGHT,  
PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 09Z-11Z/SUN, BUT LESS CONFIDENT OF THICKER  
FOG AT KALB/KPOU, SO WILL MENTION JUST SHALLOW FOG (MIFG) FOR  
NOW DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AT KALB.  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AROUND 12Z-13Z SUNDAY WITH ABUNDANT  
SUNSHINE ONCE FOG DISSIPATES.  
 
WINDS WILL BECOME CALM TONIGHT, THEN TREND INTO THE NORTHWEST TO  
NORTH AT 4 TO 8 KT BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON,  
ALTHOUGH LOCAL TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS COULD ALLOW FOR MORE OF AN  
EAST/SOUTHEAST WIND AT KGFL.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO  
SIG WX.  
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.  
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER  
THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, PROVIDING DRY  
CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES  
COULD REACH RECORD HIGH LEVELS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  
 
RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE 80 TO 100 PERCENT RANGE TONIGHT AND  
SUNDAY NIGHT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE  
THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN TREND EAST AND SOUTHEAST MONDAY.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT  
WEEK. AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF FAIR AND WARM WEATHER IS FORECAST  
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.  
 
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING  
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE  
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS  
ON OUR WEBSITE.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  
 
HERE IS A LIST OF THE CURRENT RECORD HIGHS FOR SEPTEMBER 24/25:  
 
ALBANY NY:  
SEPTEMBER 24TH/SUNDAY: 87 DEGREES 1961  
SEPTEMBER 25TH/MONDAY: 89 DEGREES 1970  
DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874  
 
GLENS FALLS NY:  
SEPTEMBER 24TH/SUNDAY: 86 DEGREES 1961  
SEPTEMBER 25TH/MONDAY: 84 DEGREES 2007  
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949  
 
POUGHKEEPSIE NY:  
SEPTEMBER 24TH/SUNDAY: 91 DEGREES 1959  
SEPTEMBER 25TH/MONDAY: 89 DEGREES 1970  
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949, HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING  
FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...NAS  
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS  
SHORT TERM...NAS  
LONG TERM...JPV  
AVIATION...KL/JPV  
FIRE WEATHER...NAS  
HYDROLOGY...NAS  
CLIMATE...  
 
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