787  
FXUS61 KBTV 140532  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
1232 AM EST THU DEC 14 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO  
THURSDAY BEFORE WINDS ABATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE  
REGION. THEREAFTER A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS  
EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON/
 
 
AS OF 1018 PM EST WEDNESDAY...AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW OVER  
NORTHEAST VERMONT CONTINUES TO DECREASE LATE TONIGHT AND THIS  
TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GOING FORECAST HAS  
THIS COVERED WELL. SKIES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY CLEAR AND ONCE  
THEY DO...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL  
QUICKLY. ONCE AGAIN GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL AND NO  
BIG CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...  
OVERALL TRENDS FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS WILL BE TOWARDS QUIETER  
CONDITIONS AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE  
REGION. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL TREND  
TOWARDS A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING, BUT WILL  
BE SHORT- LIVED AS A WEAK SECONDARY CLIPPER LOW PASSES TO OUR  
SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. NOTHING MORE THAN AN  
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED, BUT WILL  
LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON METEOR SHOWER VIEWING TONIGHT. IF  
YOU'RE PLANNING ON BRAVING THE BITTER COLD AND WINDS, THE BEST  
SHOT AT CLEAR SKIES IS LIKELY BETWEEN 10 PM AND 2 AM. MAKE SURE  
TO BUNDLE UP AS WELL AS LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE  
DIGITS ABOVE TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS  
FALLING INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.  
 
THURSDAY STARTS PARTLY CLOUDY TO THE NORTH AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO  
THE SOUTH, BUT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER EXITS OFF THE  
EASTERN SEABOARD SKIES WILL CLEAR AGAIN TOWARDS MID-DAY AS HIGH  
PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL. THE AIRMASS IS QUITE A CHILLY ONE WITH  
MEAN 925-850MB TEMPS IN THE -15C TO -20C RANGE, OFFERING HIGHS  
ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ABOVE ZERO, AND LOWS THURSDAY  
NIGHT AGAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS +/- ZERO, BUT WINDS WILL BE  
LIGHTER. ATOP THE HIGH PEAKS THOUGH, TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BARELY  
TOUCH ZERO, AND WINDS WILL BE BRISK IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE, SO  
IF YOU'RE PLANNING ON GOING TO ENJOY ALL THIS GREAT SNOW WE JUST  
GOT, MAKE SURE TO BUNDLE UP AS WIND CHILLS WILL PUSH INTO THE  
-20 TO -30 BELOW ZERO RANGE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /1 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 215 PM EST WEDNESDAY...DIGGING SHORTWAVE IN BROAD CYCLONIC  
FLOW WILL BACK FLOW FOR FAVORABLE SW FLOW AND POTENTIAL LAKE  
EFFECT BANDING MOVING NORTHWARD INTO ST. LAWRENCE BY FRIDAY AFTN  
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF SURFACE CLIPPER/FRONT WHICH AFTER  
PASSAGE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THE BAND WILL RETREAT SOUTH  
AGAIN. THE FLOW INDICATES LONGEST DURATION PARALLEL OR WEST OF  
ROUTE 11 THEN SLIPPING QUICKLY SE-S AS CLIPPER AND FRONT PUSH  
THROUGH.  
 
OUR THINKING MATCHES CLOSELY WITH WFO BUF AND THINKING SEVERAL  
INCHES ALONG-SOUTH OF ROUTE 3 IN ADIRONDACKS WITH PERHAPS 3-6+  
LOCALLY ALONG AND WEST OF ROUTE 11 IN SW ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY.  
 
HOWEVER...UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE CLIPPER ALONG WITH MOISTURE  
FETCH FROM LAKE EFFECT BANDING WILL BRING ABOUT LIGHT SNOW/SNOW  
SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT - EARLY SATURDAY ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN  
NY AND MOUNTAINS OF VT. SNOW SQUALLS A GOOD POSSIBILITY ALONG THE  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAT MORNING.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 215 PM EST WEDNESDAY.... SURFACE CLIPPER AND SHORTWAVE  
MOVES THROUGH NY/VT SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME ENHANCED UPSLOPE  
FLOW SNOWS DISSIPATING DURING THE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD DUSTING  
TO LESS THAN INCH BUT SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG WESTERN  
SLOPES/MOUNTAINS AND AN INCH-2 IN NE VT HILLY TERRAIN.  
 
QUIET SAT NGT-SUNDAY WITH SLIGHT RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS THEN BACKING  
RETURN FLOW WILL BRING ABOUT SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION  
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A MORE  
AMPLIFIED ROBUST SYSTEM, STILL YIELDING LIGHT PRECIPITATION  
WHEREAS GFS IS OUTLIER WITH CONTINUED RIDGING AND NOTHING. WPC  
SIMILAR TO ECMWF/CANADIAN THUS FOLLOWING THESE SOLUTIONS.  
 
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY AS WELL BUT AT LEAST HAVE  
SIMILAR THINKING OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND WEAK FRONT  
MOVING ACROSS IN THE TUESDAY TIMEFRAME WITH PERHAPS COASTAL  
DEVELOPMENT AFTER PASSING OUR AREA ALTHOUGH GFS SOONER/CLOSER WITH  
COASTAL DEVELOPMENT AND WILL BACK OFF ON THIS SOLUTION FOR NOW.  
 
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING WITH SUB-FREEZING SURFACE LAYER MAY MEAN  
SOME FREEZING RAIN AS PART OF THE LIGHT WINTRY MIX FOR MONDAY-  
TUESDAY.  
 
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH ABOVE  
FREEZING HIGHS IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD AND SLIGHTLY COOLER  
WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE  
24 HR TAF PERIOD. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE  
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT HAVE LITTLE IMPACT. WINDS WILL BE  
TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS UNDER 10 KNOTS  
GENERALLY AFTER 12Z.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
FRIDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHSN.  
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.  
SATURDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.  
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
SUNDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.  
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.  
MONDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN, CHANCE  
SHRA.  
 

 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF  
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/LAHIFF  
SHORT TERM...SLW  
LONG TERM...SLW  
AVIATION...NEILES  
 
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