598  
FXUS61 KBTV 202350  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
750 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES THROUGH THIS  
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST OVER THE  
CANADIAN MARITIMES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND UNDER A COOL BUT DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW. A WARMING TREND  
BEGINS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST.  
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 50S BY SUNDAY  
AND ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PLENTY OF  
SUNSHINE.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 750 PM EDT FRIDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH  
DECREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TAKING PLACE OVER NORTH  
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT AND SOME CLEARING TAKING PLACE  
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. GOING FORECAST HAS THESE TRENDS HANDLED  
WELL AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. SHOULD CONTINUE TO  
SEE PRECIPITATION GO AWAY AND AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS  
DECREASING AS WELL OVERNIGHT.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...  
GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK SO LITTLE CHANGE AS UNSEASONABLY  
COLD NW FLOW CONTINUES. STILL A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW  
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES BUT MOISTURE WILL BECOME SHALLOWER AND WITH  
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, LESS CONVECTIVE. STILL LOOKING AT LOTS  
OF CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS AS COLD AIR AND THE  
SHALLOW MOISTURE IS TRAPPED BY A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.  
TEMP DROP TONIGHT WILL BE LIMITED BY THE CLOUD COVER WITH LOWS  
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.  
 
ON SATURDAY THE NW FLOW OF COLD AIR CONTINUES, BUT WITH NOT  
QUITE AS COLD AS TODAY AS 925MB TEMPS RISE TO ABOUT -1C. WITH  
WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT ANY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL SLIDE OFF TO  
THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE BUILDS INTO THE  
REGION. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 40S TO EVEN A 50 DEGREE  
READING NEAR VSF.  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT SKIES SHOULD BE CLEARING EVERYWHERE AS HIGH  
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY  
IN THE 20S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 125 PM EDT FRIDAY...LARGE DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BE IN  
PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT AREA SUNDAY AND  
SUNDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE  
EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE A BIT BELOW  
SEASONAL NORMALS DURING THIS PERIOD, THE WEATHER WILL BE QUITE  
PLEASANT. WINDS WILL REMAIN NWLY ON SUNDAY, PERHAPS REACHING 10  
MPH OR SO DURING THE MID-DAY HOURS WITH BEST PBL MIXING.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 345 PM EDT FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED  
OVER THE REGION STILL MONDAY MORNING, THEN SLIDE EASTWARD MONDAY  
NIGHT. MONDAY SHOULD BE A NICE SUNNY DAY WITH NEAR NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES. ON TUESDAY RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP TO BUMP  
OUR TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 60S  
AREAWIDE, OUR WARMEST DAY FOR QUITE SOME TIME. FROM TUESDAY  
NIGHT ONWARD GFS AND ECMWF NOT IN VERY MUCH AGREEMENT AT ALL,  
LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS. DOES LOOK LIKE  
WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACTIVE FROM MID WEEK ONWARD. STILL LOTS OF  
MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN  
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A MUCH SLOWER  
SOLUTION KEEPING PRECIPITATION OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF  
THE PERIOD. ECMWF CLEARS THINGS OUT QUICKER, GIVING US A COUPLE  
DRIER DAYS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY THIS  
FAR OUT, BUT OVERALL TREND IS FOR TEMPERATURES BACK AROUND  
NORMAL AND ACTIVE WEATHER FOR AT LEAST WED.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE  
PERIOD. CEILINGS THROUGH 12Z SHOULD BE IN THE 4000 TO 6000 FOOT  
RANGE AND THEN CLOUDS WILL BECOME SCATTERED AFTER 12Z AND  
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND  
VARIABLE BY 06Z TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER  
14Z BUT AT SPEEDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.  
WEDNESDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.  
 

 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...SISSON  
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/SISSON  
SHORT TERM...NEILES  
LONG TERM...NEILES  
AVIATION...EVENSON  
 
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