317  
FXUS61 KBTV 201905  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
305 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND HELP  
SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM  
ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT  
WILL SUPPRESS HOW FAR SOUTH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OBSERVED. THIS  
DRIER AIR WILL ALSO LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE  
WORK WEEK WITH SUNNY SKIES ON TAP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WARM FRONT MOVES IN  
FROM THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE  
NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTH  
COUNTRY BEGINNING MONDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES AND  
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES PREVAILING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF  
NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 305 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...MESOANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS  
SOME SKINNY CAPE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHERN  
NEW YORK AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80  
DEGREES. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO  
WILL INTERACT WITH THIS LIMITED INSTABILITY AND HELP SPARK A FEW  
SHOWERS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THERE IS ALSO A VERY  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO BUT GIVEN HOW WEAK THE  
COLD FRONT WILL BE BY THE TIME IT GETS HERE AND THE LIMITED  
INSTABILITY, IT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISING TO SEE NO THUNDERSTORMS  
AT ALL. CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS DRIER TRENDS FROM BURLINGTON  
SOUTHWARD AS DRIER AIR CATCHES UP TO THE COLD FRONT AND ANY  
INSTABILITY PRESENT DURING AFTERNOON HEATING QUICKLY WANES AS  
THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT  
HOURS.  
 
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS  
SKIES QUICKLY CLEAR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH  
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH DRY AIR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD AND HIGH  
PRESSURE BEGINNING TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION, CLEAR SKIES ARE  
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG  
LAKE CHAMPLAIN AND VICINITY COULD BE SEEN BRIEFLY DURING THE  
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS A DECENT GRADIENT WIND SETS UP AS HIGH  
PRESSURE IS BUILD INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY  
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS AS TEMPERATURES ONLY CLIMB INTO  
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE ON  
THE CHILLY SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S WITH PORTIONS OF  
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S. NEVERTHELESS,  
WITH DECREASING DEWPOINTS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPERATURES,  
THURSDAY AFTERNOON IS SHAPING UP TO BE A BEAUTIFUL FIRST DAY OF  
SUMMER.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 333 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY  
NIGHT PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER AS SFC HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM SERN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC ESEWD ACROSS  
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES  
BY FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOULD SEE GOOD RADIATIONAL  
COOLING CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY  
NIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY MID-UPR 40S, BUT WOULD ANTICIPATE SOME UPR  
30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK  
REGION AND ACROSS SHELTERED LOCATIONS OF FAR NERN VT. SHOULD SEE  
A MODERATING AIR MASS ON FRIDAY AS SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP AROUND  
10 MPH. RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS (2-M DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR  
40S TO LOWER 50S) WILL CONTINUE, BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE  
WARMER ON FRIDAY, REACHING THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S. WILL BEGIN  
TO SEE SOME FRINGE EFFECTS OF CLOSED 700-500MB LOW EXPECTED  
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY  
SHIFTS NEWD, INCREASING CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. THE  
00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION REMAINS SOUTH AND  
WEST OF OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT THE 00Z GFS IS A BIT  
QUICKER TO BRING POTENTIAL RAIN SHOWERS INTO NRN NY AFTER  
MIDNIGHT. AT THIS POINT, INDICATED JUST 20-30 POPS FOR FRANKLIN  
NY AND ST. LAWRENCE COUNTIES DURING THE PRE-DAWN PERIOD  
SATURDAY. THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN MILDER  
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, WITH PRE-DAWN LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S,  
EXCEPT NEAR 60F FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 333 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS SUGGEST  
UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND AS MID- LEVEL LOW OVER THE OHIO  
VALLEY IS FORECAST TO BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AND LIFT NEWD ACROSS  
NY STATE ON SATURDAY, AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND FOR  
SATURDAY NIGHT. A SECOND MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN NWLY FLOW MOVES  
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY, WITH THE  
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS. PRECIPITABLE WATER  
VALUES WILL BE MODERATELY HIGH BUT NOT EXCESSIVE. UNLIKE THE 2"+  
PW EXPERIENCED THIS PAST MONDAY, WILL SEE VALUES 1.5-1.7" IN  
ADVANCE OF THE OHIO VALLEY SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY. OVERALL, PRESENT  
INDICATIONS SUGGEST CLOUDINESS AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES  
WILL KEEP INSTABILITY LOW (SBCAPE < 1000 J/KG). ANTICIPATE  
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SATURDAY, AND INCLUDED A CHANCE OF EMBEDDED  
THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE GREEN MTNS, INCLUDING THE CHAMPLAIN  
VALLEY AND ALL OF NRN NY (SLIGHT CHANCE TSTM EAST OF THE GREEN  
MTNS). SEVERE STORMS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED. HIGHS ON SATURDAY  
MAINLY IN THE 70S. MAINTAINED 60-80 POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH  
LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAY SEE A BREAK IN THE SHOWER  
ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY - ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HRS - BUT  
WITH TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SERN ONTARIO,  
SHOULD SEE ANOTHER PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO  
SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. GRADUAL CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED  
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY ONLY IN THE LOWER  
70S, BUT INCREASED PROSPECTS FOR SUNSHINE SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS  
IN THE 75-80F RANGE FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH  
THE FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM  
THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING WHICH WILL HELP SPARK SOME SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE  
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. MOST OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT WILL REMAIN  
ON THE DRY SIDE AS DRIER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO CATCH UP TO THE  
COLD FRONT. A WIND SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST  
WILL OCCUR BEHIND BEHIND THE FROPA BUT WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY  
REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS. BY TOMORROW MORNING, SKIES WILL GO SKC  
WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR OVERHEAD.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
FRIDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.  
SATURDAY: VFR. LIKELY SHRA, CHANCE TSRA.  
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY  
SHRA.  
SUNDAY: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA.  
SUNDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.  
MONDAY: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.  
 

 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...CLAY  
NEAR TERM...CLAY  
SHORT TERM...BANACOS  
LONG TERM...BANACOS  
AVIATION...CLAY  
 
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