328
FXUS61 KBTV 090915
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
415 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2010
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS...SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EVENTS FORESEEN DURING THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
AS OF 409 AM EST TUESDAY...STILL SOME LIGHT SNOW SHWRS OR FLRYS
OCCURRING...ESPECIALLY OVER HIR TRRN OF NRN VT AND IN ADRNDKS. ALSO
SOME BRKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY IN ST LWR VLY AND ACRS SC
VT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE THIS MORNING...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
A LOW CHC OF SNOW SHWRS FOR NRN AREAS THIS MORNING...BUT AS RIDGING
DEVELOPS ACRS THE RGN THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT ANY SNOW SHWRS OR
FLRYS TO COME AN END. QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL THERE
BE TDY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF MSTR BENEATH INVERSION
AT 4-5 KFT WITH LIMITED MIXING POTENTIAL...SO BELIEVE SKIES WILL RMN
MSTLY CLDY WITH SOME SUNNY INTERVALS...ESPECIALLY IN ST LWR VLY AND
LOWER CHMPLN/CT VLYS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS...WITH HIGHS IN 20S TO AROUND 30 WITH LIGHT WINDS.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 409 AM EST TUESDAY...WEAK RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...BUT BREAKS DOWN OVERNIGHT AS WE BEGIN
TO COME UNDER INFLUENCE OF PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE APRCHG FROM OH
VLY AND MID ATLC RGN. STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW APRCHG FROM THE
MIDWEST WILL ALLOW FOR THE COASTAL SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY
LATER TONIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS REMAIN QUITE
CONSISTENT IN PROJECTING THE TRACK OF THIS LOW TO THE EAST...
PASSING SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK TUESDAY EVENING. THE RESULT WILL BE
THAT THIS STORM SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR CWA. WE ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE NRN FRINGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD DURING
WEDNESDAY. HAVE CONTD WITH PREVIOUS THINKING OF LIKELY POPS OVER
SC VT...WITH PERHAPS 1 TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. TAPERED POPS
DOWN TO SLIGHT CHC AS YOU HEAD NORTH TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 30.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TREK EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
BROAD CIRCULATION AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL ENCOMPASS ALL OF
THE NORTHEAST. MOISTURE WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST...ALONG WITH A SERIES OF SHRTWVS DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA WILL RESULT IN A LOT OF CLOUDS AND A CHC OF SNOW
SHWRS...ESPECIALLY OVER NRN AREAS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 308 AM EST TUESDAY...MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL HAVE THE NORTH
COUNTRY UNDER INFLUENCE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT STARTS OUT
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY NGT...AND WILL EVENTUALLY
RETROGRADE WEST INTO QUEBEC THRU SUN NGT. DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...THE REGION WILL SEE WIND REGIME START OUT NORTHERLY
OVER THE ENTIRE CWA AND SHIFT TO THE NW BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
RIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS EFFECT WILL HAVE LGT SW OVER THE AREA WITH
MAIN FOCUS OVER NORTHERN ZONES...TO MORE OF UPSLOPE/HIR ELEV
SCENARIO AS THOSE NW WINDS KICK IN. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY LGT ACCUM
WILL BE DURING THIS TIME. BY SUN NGT...SFC LOW OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC AND WINDS BEGIN TO TAPER OFF. EARLY MON MORNING...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PUSHES THRU THE GREAT LKS REGION AND INTO WESTERN NY BY
MON AFTNOON. MDLS BRING THIS LOW ACROSS THE GOING INTO MON NGT.
THIS WILL GIVE A BROAD LL CLD BASE WITH LGT PRECIP TO END OFF THE
EXTENDED. THESE CLDS THAT ARE EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION WILL
ASSIST IN STABILIZING TEMPS...ESPECIALLY AT NGT...BY NOT ALLOWING
RADIATIONAL COOLING. SO AS A RESULT...STAYED NEAR MDL GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS AND TWEAKED A DEGREE OR SO UP FOR OVERNGT LOWS.
AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY RANGE FROM VFR DOWN
TO MVFR THRU FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SOME FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE...CEILINGS WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR FOR THE CHANGE...WITH
A RANGE OF BKN020 UP TO BKN060. SLK WILL SEE SOME IFR CONDITIONS
THRU 09Z-10Z DUE TO LWRD CEILINGS IN -SW ACTIVTY. VSBY DOWN TO
2-5SM DURING THIS TIME. WINDS WNW 5-10KTS...LGT/VAR AT TIMES
MAINLY AFT 00Z WED DUE TO SFC RIDGE OVER THE AREA.
OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.
12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL VFR.
-SHSN ESPECIALLY AT KRUT AND KSLK.
12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SAT...VFR WTIH OCCASIONAL MVFR IN -SHSN
ESPECIALLY IN THE GREEN AND ADIRONDACK MTNS.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...AMF/JN
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