507
FXUS61 KBTV 050054
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
854 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009
SYNOPSIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. SUNSHINE AND DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
AS OF 843 PM EDT SATURDAY...500MB COLD POOL /-19C TO -20C/ REMAINS
CENTERED OVER VT LATE THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID-LEVEL
VORT MAX WHICH IS ELONGATED E-W ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING IS RESULTING IN RAPID DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE AREA...AND 20-30 POPS WILL DECREASE TO 10 PERCENT OR
LESS MOST SECTIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MID-LEVEL VORT WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE EAST AS WELL...YIELDING LESS SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY. EXPECT TO SEE GRADUAL CLEARING FROM
WEST TO EAST...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW
REMAINS WLY/NWLY AND WILL SEE 10-20 MPH WINDS...GUSTS LCL TO 25
MPH...UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. PBL NOT EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE MOST
AREAS...WITH WINDS 5-10 MPH DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS MOST AREAS.
FOR THESE REASONS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH NOCTURNAL FOG FORMATION.
COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...WIND...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN LOW-LVL AIR
MASS/T-ADVECTION WILL YIELD LOWS OF AROUND 54F AT KBTV AND
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ELSEWHERE. A FEW MIN TEMP
READINGS IN THE MID 40S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE WE WILL FINALLY HAVE A DRY
DAY SUNDAY. PESKY UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH OVERSTAYED ITS WELCOME
WILL BE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH OUT OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES REGION
TOWARDS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FEEL THAT
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION TO
KEEP SUNDAY DRY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR A DAY. VERY COLD 850 TEMPS AGAIN ON SUNDAY SO
ONLY EXPECTING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND THE LOWER 70S...DESPITE
SEEING A LITTLE BIT OF SUNSHINE RETURNING. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. BY MONDAY MORNING WILL AGAIN INTRODUCE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION AS THIS UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL ALSO BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON WE WILL HAVE SOME
DECENT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES AND
SHOWWALTERS ARE ALREADY SHOWING IN THE MODEL DATA FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TOTAL TOTALS ARE ALSO POINTING TO SOME CONVECTION
MONDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
CONTINUED COLD POOL ALOFT INDICATE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FOR SOME
SMALL HAIL. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH EXPECT CONVECTION TO
SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AS LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS. MAX AND MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY PERSISTENT THROUGH THE NEAR/SHORT
TERM FORECASTS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S
IN THE BIGGER VALLEYS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MINS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 357 PM EDT SATURDAY...GFS MODEL SHOWING ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA AND INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT. THIS COLD POOL
ALOFT WILL PRODUCE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO WILL GO WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. WILL KEEP IN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...SO WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECTING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY...AS A WARM
FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING IN ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...MVFR CIGS TONIGHT WILL SCATTER OUT AND RISE
AFT 10Z WITH CLEARING SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW.
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
TONIGHT...ENDING ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. CIGS BELOW MVFR
CRITERIA WILL IMPACT KSLK/KMPV TONIGHT...BUT ALL OTHER TAF LOCALS
WILL HAVE VFR CIGS AROUND 4K MSL. BRISK NW WINDS WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO GUST ABOVE 20KTS OUT OF THE W/NW AFT
15Z TOMORROW UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IN THE MORNING WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...CAUSING LOCAL MVFR IFR CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS...CAUSING
TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DUMONT
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