138
FXUS61 KBTV 110842
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
442 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2008
SYNOPSIS
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...BIG BUBBLE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALSO OVERHEAD.
TODAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AS FAR AS SYNOPTIC SET UP
AND 850 TEMPS...SO DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM YESTERDAY/S MAX
TEMPS FOR TODAY/S MAX TEMPS. TEMPS WILL BE A GOOD 6-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND 4 DEGREES C. CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG LIFTING BY ABOUT 9 AM. THERE WILL BE A
FEW CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CAPPING INVERSION OVER THE AREA
TODAY...BUT THINK TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL REACH YESTERDAY/S MAX
NUMBERS. SHOULD BE A BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY TODAY.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 415 AM EDT SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. 850 TEMPS WILL INCREASE TO 10 DEGREES C ON SUNDAY...AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL EDGE TOWARDS 70 ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY. AGAIN EXPECT A FEW CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO EDGE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE JUST
INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MAINLY THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND
CENTRAL VERMONT EAST OF THE GREENS...WHICH IS PERSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTER/S THINKING. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND 8 DEGREES C AND MAX
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 430 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY
MORNING. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS AND WISCONSIN WILL LIFT
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...AND SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW. LARGE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH EAST...CROSSING OUR FORECAST AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ELONGATED
FRONT...WITH BEST DYNAMICS WELL TO OUR NORTH...WILL BRING JUST A
SMALL RIBBON OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED CHANCE
POPS...BECAUSE QPF LOOKS QUITE SMALL AT THIS TIME. UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES VERY ZONAL FOLLOWING THIS FROPA. THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN UPPER LEVEL FLOW CROSSING THE AREA.
THIS FEATURE IS STILL VERY FAR OUT...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON
PLACEMENT...AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ERN GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BUILD EWD ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A CORRESPONDING RIDGE AXIS IN
THE 700-500MB LAYER WILL AMPLIFY NEWD ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH ONLY ISOLD POTENTIAL FOR VLY FOG WITH DRY LOW-LEVEL
AIR MASS IN PLACE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL GENERALLY BECOME NWLY AT 5-10 KTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN BY EARLY EVENING.
12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
WITH VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NERN VT SUNDAY NIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY
BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
OVERALL...HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL THE
APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
NOTICE TO USERS OF TERMINAL AERODROME FORECASTS (TAF)...BEGINNING
AT 0000 UTC ON NOVEMBER 5...2008...THE FORMAT FOR TAFS WILL
CHANGE. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN TO ISSUE TAFS
USING A VALID DATE AND TIME GROUP IN THE FORECAST. ALL
METEOROLOGICAL AGENCIES WORLDWIDE WILL ALSO ISSUE THEIR TAF
FORECASTS IN THIS NEW FORMAT. THIS IS BEING DONE TO ACCOMMODATE
30 HOUR TAF FORECASTS THAT WILL BE DONE FOR SELECT MAJOR
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORTS WORLDWIDE. THERE WILL BE 32 MAJOR U.S.
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORTS FOR WHICH TAFS FORECASTS WILL BE VALID FOR
30 HOURS. THIS FORMAT CHANGE IS BEING MANDATED BY THE
INTERNATIONAL CIVIL AVIATION ORGANIZATION (ICAO). THE 6 TAF
FORECASTS BEING DONE BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BURLINGTON WILL CONTINUE TO BE VALID FOR 24 HOURS. TO SEE
EXAMPLES OF THIS NEW FORMAT...PLEASE GO TO THE INTERNET WEB SITE
LISTED BELOW.
WWW.AVIATIONWEATHER.GOV/NOTICE/TAF30.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...BANACOS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page