834  
FXUS61 KBTV 260843  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
443 AM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY  
TO UNSETTLED AND WARMER WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS  
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. PUSHES A WARM  
FRONT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN  
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN BY MONDAY  
AFTERNOON, BRIEFLY TAPERING OFF MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE RETURNING  
FOR TUESDAY AND ENDING AS SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 443 AM EDT SUNDAY...  
 
...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH  
COUNTRY TONIGHT...  
 
A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY IS ON TAP FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY TO END  
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN QUEBEC  
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE MAINLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE  
REGION. WE'LL SEE SOME INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE  
DAY WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST  
BEYOND THE 4PM HOUR AND HEADING INTO THIS EVENING. HIGHS WILL  
RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH IN THE MID/UPPER 30S TO  
AROUND 40 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.  
 
FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, CONCERNS REMAIN FROM THE PREVIOUS  
FORECAST THINKING IN REGARDS TO FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL AS DEEP  
LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE OZARKS THIS MORNING WILL PUSH A WARM  
FRONT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA  
TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ARE AS SUCH THAT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE  
THE DOMINANT PTYPE ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY OF NEW YORK AND FROM THE  
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS EASTWARD WHERE SURFACE  
TEMPS WILL HOVER A FREEZING OR JUST BELOW AS WARMER AIR ALOFT  
MOVES OVER THE AREA. IN THE DEEPER CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE  
VALLEYS SURFACE TEMPS REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID 30S OVERNIGHT SO  
WHILE POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE, THE  
OVERALL IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL. ON THE IMPACT SIDE OF THINGS,  
UNDER THE ADVISORY AREA, THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT IMPACTS WILL  
BE ON THE LOW SIDE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENT AS MODELED ROAD  
TEMPERATURES SHOW SURFACES WARMING WELL ABOVE FREEZING DURING  
THE DAY, AND ONLY RIGHT TO FREEZING DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THE  
EXPECTED ICE ACCUMULATIONS WON'T HAVE AN IMPACT ON POWERLINES AS  
ONLY UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED AT THE LOWER  
ELEVATIONS, AND EVEN THOUGH HIGHER UP ON THE MID-SLOPES  
INCREASED AMOUNTS COULD ACCUMULATE ONTO THE LARGER TRANSMISSION  
LINES, THEY CAN USUALLY HANDLE A LITTLE MORE WITHOUT FAILING.  
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE FALLING DURING THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE  
THOUGH SO ANY ICE ON AREA ROADWAYS WILL BE A CONCERN.  
 
BY MID-DAY MONDAY THE WARM FRONT PUSHES CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN  
BORDER ALLOWING SURFACE TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID-30S EAST TO  
UPPER 40S WEST TRANSITIONING PTYPE TO PLAIN RAIN AND ENDING THE  
THREAT OF ICE ACCUMULATION.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 356 AM EDT SUNDAY....SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE  
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH BEST DYNAMIC FORCING NOW EAST OF  
US...AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD DECREASE RAPIDLY.  
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH THE  
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT WILL EXIST AND THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT IT.  
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON  
AND ONCE AGAIN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP OVER  
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL  
BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...THUS EXPECTING PRECIPITATION  
TO FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 356 AM EDT SUNDAY...RAIN WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE  
FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST  
OF THE AREA. COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN AND ANY  
LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL TURN TO SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST  
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WEDNESDAY AND  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LOOKING FOR SOME MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS IN  
THIS PATTERN. DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY  
FOR NO PRECIPITATION. UNFORTUNATELY DATA ALL OVER THE PLACE  
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TIMING OF SYSTEMS AND HAVE KEPT IN  
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGHS ON  
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID  
40S...THEN IN THE 40S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 00Z  
MONDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES GIVING WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS  
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD.  
THEREAFTER, MIXED PRECIPITATION SPREADS INTO THE REGION LOWERING  
CIGS/VSBY TO AT LEAST MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT  
TURN TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AFTER 12Z AT 5-10 KNOTS, EXCEPTION  
BEING KMSS WHERE DIRECTIONS WILL BE MORE NORTHEAST.  
 
OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...  
 
06Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...PERIODS OF MIXED  
PRECIPITATION, THOUGH MAINLY RAIN WITH CIGS/VSBY VARIABLE FROM  
IFR TO MVFR. MODERATELY GUSTY NW WINDS LIKELY WEDNESDAY.  
 
00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR, EXCEPT FOR SOME  
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.  
 

 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT  
MONDAY FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-016>019.  
NY...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT  
MONDAY FOR NYZ034.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF  
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF  
SHORT TERM...EVENSON  
LONG TERM...EVENSON  
AVIATION...LAHIFF  
 
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