823
FXUS61 KBTV 071810
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
110 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY PROVIDING THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES...AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. THE
HIGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT
SKIRTS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
AS OF 1029 AM EST SATURDAY...HAVE ISSUED UPDATE TO ADJUST CLD
COVER FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. CLD COVER CURRENTLY MVG SLOWLY OVER THE
CWA THIS MORNING. AREAS THAT WERE MSUNNY WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS
AREA OF CLDS INTO THE AFTNOON HRS. REST OF FORECAST IN GD SHAPE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A NICE START TO THE FIRST FULL
WEEKEND OF NOVEMBER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. EXPECT TO SEE GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND THE SEASONAL NORMAL FOR TODAY. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE AND
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 25 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN WHERE A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 337 AM EST SATURDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH CONTINUES
TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SKIRTING
EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OVERNIGHT. UPSTREAM
SURFACE OBS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
FEATURE...SO OVERALL NOT LOOKING FOR ANY REAL MEASURABLE PRECIP
OUT OF THIS...BUT HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. PTYPE MAY BE A SLIGHT CONCERN ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT IF
THERE IS ANY PRECIPITATION...AS MODEL SOUNDING TEMPERATURE
PROFILES INDICATE MID LEVEL TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING WHILE
COLD AIR (AOB FREEZING) REMAINS TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FREEZING PRECIPITATION...BUT WILL
HEDGE TOWARDS KEEPING PTYPE IN THE LIQUID FORM AS SURFACE TEMPS
MAY STAY RIGHT AROUND FREEZING OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WITH AN
INCREASING CLOUD DECK ALOFT. BY SUNDAY MORNING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
HAS EXITED THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BOTH DAYS WILL
FEATURE SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS 850HPA TEMPS
WARM TO +5-10C.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 337 AM EST SATURDAY...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE TO
AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A COLD
FRONT WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT...A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN RATHER MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS IN MOST
LOCATIONS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 40. THEREFORE...ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WILL FALL AS RAIN. BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR DURING TUESDAY AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE
AREA. FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT BUT DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...KEEPING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION GOING. AS COLDER AIR RUSHES BEHIND THE FRONT ON
INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS...EXPECT A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH POSSIBILITY OF SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH QUICKLY ON
WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA THURSDAY...WHILE TEMPS REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL. COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FRIDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...BAND OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS
BETWEEN 6-8 KFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AND GENERALLY DIMINISH
AT THE TAF LOCATIONS THRU THIS EVENING. THESE CLOUDS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT ALOFT...BUT ARE NOT ASSOCIATED WITH
ANY PCPN. AT THE SFC...SFC RIDGE IS SHIFTING EWD INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE AND WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY WINDS THRU 12Z SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH
GUSTS TO 25-27 KTS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTN THRU 06Z SUNDAY. DO
HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR MPV...RUT...AND
SLK WHERE MIXING WILL NOT BE AS PRONOUNCED. THE 12Z NAM SHOWS A
DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET...REACHING AN INTENSITY OF 40-50 KTS AT 2
KFT BETWEEN 02-08Z TONIGHT. BASED ON THIS...HAVE INCLUDED WIND
SHEAR MENTION AWAY FROM THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.
THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITH
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS. PASSAGE OF A SFC TROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
14Z SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN A BIT MORE OF A WESTERLY WIND SHIFT
TOWARD THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. ANY LOW CLOUDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH A DRIER WLY WIND FOLLOWING THE TROUGH
PASSAGE MID-MORNING SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SUNDAY 18Z THROUGH MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR.
TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLE FRONTAL WAVE
WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM WEST TO EAST BRINGING
POSSIBLE RAIN AND WIDESPREAD MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS LATE
TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS NRN NY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ANY SHOWERS END
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING
FOR THURSDAY.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JN/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...BANACOS
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