574  
FXUS61 KBTV 282002  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
402 PM EDT FRI APR 28 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE CLOUDS BEFORE  
SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL  
PRODUCE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY  
NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATUERS SUNDAY. MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN  
ENTER THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  
MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 155 PM EDT FRIDAY...CLOUDS DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON  
BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED FROM THE  
50S INTO THE 40S, WHILE TEMPERATURES HAVE REBOUNDED INTO THE  
70S. CLEAR SKIES TO PERSIST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT,  
THEN MOISTURE ADVANCES INTO THE REGION AT THE MID LEVELS IN  
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SURFACE FRONT. THE FORECAST AREA IS UNDER  
THE INFLUENCE OF 500MB WESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE  
CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND A TROUGH OVER NORTHERN  
QUEBEC. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC TO  
HELP MOVE THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH.  
 
DRY FORECAST TONIGHT, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS MUCH OF THE NIGHT  
RECOVERING FROM TODAY'S COLD FRONT. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S  
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND 40S ELSEWHERE. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH  
PASSES SATURDAY MORNING, WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS TURNING WESTERLY  
AND CHANCE POPS MAINLY CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST  
AREA. SATURDAY THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH FROM THE CANADIAN BORDER  
ABOUT MID DAY, AND WESTERLY WINDS TURN NORTHERLY WITH COLD AIR  
ADVECTION BEGINNING. THERE WILL BE TIME FOR MID DAY HIGH TEMPS  
TO WARM INTO THE 60S BEFORE THE COOLDOWN BEGINS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 255 PM EDT FRIDAY...DIFFERENCES CONTINUE BETWEEN THE  
MODELS ON STRENGTH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT  
AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER THEY HAVE TRENDED COOLER OVERALL WHICH GIVES  
ME BETTER CONFIDENCE IN THE COOLER TEMPERATURES.  
 
COOL NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND SATURDAY'S FRONT WILL PERSIST  
SATURDAY NIGHT, AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.  
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE DRY POST-FRONTAL FLOW, HOWEVER  
TOWARD MORNING CLOUDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST IN ADVANCE OF  
OUR NEXT SYSTEM. AS FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY SURFACE WARM  
FRONT WILL BE LOCATED EAST TO WEST NEAR THE BORDER. NAM IS THE  
OUTLIER IN BREAKING OUT LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG THIS WARM  
FRONT SUNDAY MORNING, WHILE THE REST WAIT UNTIL SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON/NIGHT TO BRING PRECIP IN WEST TO EAST ALONG THE FRONT.  
WILL TREND WITH THE CONSENSUS BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE FOR  
EARLIER PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. HIGHER QPF FOCUST NEARER THE  
CANADIAN BORDER AT 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH, AND LESS THAN A TENTH IN TEH  
SOUTH.  
 
FOR MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE COOLER OF  
THE MODELS, WITH 49 DEGREES AT BTV. I COULDN'T GO THAT COLD,  
BUT DID USER A COOLER BLEND TO UNDERCUT MAV GUIDANCE AND GIVE  
LOWER 50S IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND 40S NORTH AND HIGHER  
ELEVATIONS. SUNDAY NIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AS WARM FRONT  
LIFTS FURTHER NORTH, AND LOWS INTO THE 40S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 402 PM EDT FRIDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING A RATHER  
UNSETTLED PERIOD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN  
SHOWERS JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY.  
 
HAVE MOSTLY STUCK WITH SUPERBLEND POPS AND GUIDANCE THROUGH THE  
PERIOD. MONDAY FORECAST LOOKS DIFFICULT WITH GFS AND ECMWF  
MODELS SHOWING A WARM FRONT NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE  
NAM MODEL HAS THIS WARM FRONT A BIT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ON  
MONDAY. WHERE EVER THIS WARM FRONT SET UP, THERE IS A POTENTIAL  
FOR A BIG BUST OF MAX TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES  
BEING EITHER COOLER OR WARMER THAN FORECAST. THUS, HAVE STUCK  
WITH SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING  
MORE RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN  
CYCLONIC FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FROM A LOW PRESSURE AREA  
OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC, SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS ON THESE DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE HINTING AT MOSTLY DRY  
WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  
 
GUIDANCE HINTING AT A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING NORTHEAST FROM  
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ON FRIDAY, WITH MORE RAIN SHOWERS MOVING  
INTO THE REGION.  
 
ON A PERSONAL NOTE, THIS IS MY FINAL SHIFT AS I WILL OFFICIALLY  
RETIRE ON MAY 1, AFTER WORKING FOR THE PAST 37 YEARS, 18 YEARS  
HERE AT BTV. I ENJOYED WORKING WITH MANY WONDERFUL PEOPLE OVER  
THE YEARS. THIS I WILL IMISS IN RETIREMENT. IN THE WORDS OF THE  
IMMORTAL SAMUEL A BRANCH, GOOD BYE AND GOOD LUCK, OR AS THE LATE  
JOHN MCLAUGHLIN WOULD SAY "BYE BYE"!!!  
 

 
   
AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE  
OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS  
STREAMING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO BE ON THE INCREASE  
OVERNIGHT, BUT WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE  
PERIOD.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
SUNDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.  
SUNDAY NIGHT: MVFR. CHANCE SHRA.  
MONDAY: VFR/MVFR. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA.  
MONDAY NIGHT: MVFR. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.  
TUESDAY: VFR. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA.  
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.  
WEDNESDAY: VFR. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA.  
 

 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...HANSON  
NEAR TERM...HANSON  
SHORT TERM...HANSON  
LONG TERM...WGH  
AVIATION...WGH/KGM  
 
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