572  
FXUS61 KBTV 241014  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
514 AM EST SAT FEB 24 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE NEXT 7  
DAYS. A LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY  
SUNDAY, WITH SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE  
VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. GUSTY SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPE WINDS  
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE  
GREENS.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 500 AM EST SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION  
FROM THE NORTH TODAY, AND A MAINLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED. TODAY  
WILL BE MILD ONCE AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 40S  
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN, IT  
WILL STILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY. SKIES WILL BRIEFLY CLEAR TONIGHT  
EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT, BUT THEN CLOUDS MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA  
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM  
WHICH WILL IMPACT THE REGION ON SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH  
INTO THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, AFTER ABOUT 06Z FROM THE  
SOUTHWEST AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE NORTHEAST. COLD AIR AT  
THE SURFACE WILL BE TOUGH TO SCOUR OUT, AND SOUNDINGS CONTINUE  
TO INDICATE A TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND  
THEN TO RAIN LATER SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE ABOUT A 12 HR WINDOW  
FROM 06-18Z WHERE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COLD AIR AND MIXED  
PRECIPITATION FOR SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION, GENERALLY A TENTH  
OF AN INCH OR LESS IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN  
ADIRONDACKS. MAINLY SNOW ACROSS VERMONT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.  
AFTER 18Z PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER TO RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE  
AREA BEFORE ENDING BY ABOUT 00Z. THE PARENT LOW WILL LIFT  
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. INCREASED PRESSURE  
GRADIENT ON SUNDAY BETWEEN THE LOW AND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE  
ADVECTS IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DEEPER MOISTURE ON  
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS  
SOME STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN  
SLOPES OF THE GREENS. THE NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF THE DACKS  
WILL ALSO HAVE GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40  
MPH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.  
THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN EFFECT ON THE PRECIPITATION TYPE  
AND DISTRIBUTION, WITH DOWNSLOPING AREAS WARMING AND DRYING OUT  
FASTER THAN OTHER PLACES. IN ADDITION, ONGOING PRECIPITATION IN  
OTHER AREAS WILL PREVENT SOME OF THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM  
REACHING THE SURFACE. PRECIPITATION AND WINDS OBSERVED WILL BE  
HIGHLY VARIABLE. RAIN WILL CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS  
AND TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AFTER A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST  
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 406 AM EST SATURDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN  
SUNDAY EVENING AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT EXITS TO OUR EAST. THERE MAY BE  
A BIT OF RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN EAST OF THE GREENS EARLY SUNDAY  
NIGHT, BUT OVERALL EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR SOUTH. A WEAK SECONDARY FRONT WILL PUSH  
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT IT WILL BE A DRY FRONTAL  
PASSAGE. MONDAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY, PERHAPS  
EVEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER AS WE'LL SEE SOME SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 406 AM EST SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN  
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH TUESDAY, LEADING TO FAIR  
WEATHER. THINGS BECOME A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN THEREAFTER AS THE LONG  
RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON A POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT  
INTO WEDNESDAY, WHICH WOULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.  
THE BIGGEST DISCREPANCIES COME LATER IN THE WEEK, SPECIFICALLY  
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS BRINGS A 989MB LOW INTO THE  
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LATER THURSDAY, THEN DEVELOPS A 992MB SECONDARY  
LOW JUST OFF LONG ISLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF MEANWHILE IS  
WEAKER AND SLOWER WITH THE PRIMARY SYSTEM, AND DEVELOPS THE  
SECONDARY LOW MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. WITH THESE DIFFERENCES, HAVE  
STAYED CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK IN REGARDS TO  
TEMPERATURES, POPS, AND WEATHER TYPE. OVERALL, EXPECT TEMPERATURES  
TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION  
OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF IFR AT SLK/MSS IMPROVING BY EARLY  
MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS LIFT TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 12Z  
SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AT 10-20KTS.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR AND IFR POSSIBLE. STRONG  
WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. DEFINITE RA, DEFINITE PL, DEFINITE  
FZRA, LIKELY SN.  
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.  
TUESDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.  
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,  
CHANCE SHSN.  
 

 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VT...NONE.  
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR  
NYZ026-027-029>031-087.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...NEILES  
NEAR TERM...NEILES  
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS  
LONG TERM...HASTINGS  
AVIATION...NEILES  
 
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