353  
FXUS61 KBTV 280845  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
445 AM EDT WED JUN 28 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A RELATIVELY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY IN COMPARISON TO TUESDAY  
WITH THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BEING A BIT LIMITED THIS  
AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS  
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE  
ELSEWHERE. IT IS STILL LOOKING LIKE A PATTERN CHANGE TAKES PLACE  
BEGINNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING RIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT  
WARMER AND WETTER CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...STILL SOME LINGERING MOISTURE  
AROUND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CLOUDS...SOME FOG...AND A COUPLE  
OF STRAY SHOWERS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LINGER UNTIL JUST AFTER  
SUNRISE AND THEN WE SHOULD SEE A WINDOW OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS  
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR A BETTER PART OF THE DAY.  
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. IN TERMS OF  
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT ENHANCED  
THE STORMS OVER THE AREA YESTERDAY HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION  
AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA. NOT  
SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY DYNAMIC FORCING...BUT THERE  
APPEARS TO BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE SOUTHEAST OF JAMES BAY THAT WILL  
MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND COULD PROVIDE SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT  
TO THE NORTHERN TIER OF OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTH CENTRAL AND  
NORTHEAST VERMONT. COLDEST AIR ALOFT HAS ALSO MOVED EAST OF THE  
AREA...BUT STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP  
ONCE AGAIN OVER THE AREA AND THIS MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT  
INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WHILE DYNAMIC AND  
THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT IS NOT GREAT...IT STILL MAY BE JUST ENOUGH  
TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE  
CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF  
THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND  
NORTHEAST VERMONT.  
 
THE SHOWERS SHOULD END AROUND SUNSET AND MOST OF THE NIGHT WILL  
REMAIN DRY. DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THE FLOW ALOFT  
BACKS TO THE WEST AND ALLOWS A WARM FRONT/MOISTURE TO MOVE  
TOWARD THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY. THUS HAVE  
INCLUDED A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AROUND  
SUNRISE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO  
UPPER 50S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF  
THE WEEK REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED WITH MODELS IN VERY GOOD  
AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN MINUS SOME MINOR  
TIMING DIFFERENCES. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES  
THURSDAY WILL PUSH A WEST/EAST ORIENTED WARM FRONT OVER THE  
REGION WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK DURING  
THE MORNING, AND BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST  
AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF  
THURSDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS RATHER MEAGER THROUGH THE LOW/MID  
LEVELS FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY LIMITING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL,  
BUT AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE  
INTERNATIONAL BORDER THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT, SOME SURFACE  
INSTABILITY BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK SO WILL KEEP IN A  
MENTION OF THUNDER THERE. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE FRONT WILL BE  
LINGERING AROUND THE BORDER LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY  
WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY WANING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY  
FRIDAY, BUT AS THE REGION BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM  
SECTOR EXPECT SOME DIURNALLY AND SURFACE INSTABILITY DRIVEN  
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE THREAT  
FOR HEAVY RAIN INCREASING AS PWATS RISE TO AROUND 1.5".  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO  
BE ON THE HORIZON FOR THE WEEKEND AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT TO  
OUR WEST SERVING AS THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY MID-DAY THROUGH SUNDAY.  
SATURDAY MAY BEGIN ON THE DRY SIDE AS THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS  
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND SOME WEAK RIDGING ALOFT SHIFTS OVER THE  
REGION. AS THIS RIDGING MOVES EASTWARD BY MID-DAY, INCREASING  
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND HIGH  
PRESSURE ANCHORED NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA WILL USHER IN ADDITIONAL  
MOISTURE WITH PWATS SURGING TO 1.5-2" AND DEWPOINTS CLIMBING  
INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE  
RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST COMBINED WITH  
AMPLE SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO  
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, WITH THE FRONT  
SHIFTING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. ONCE AGAIN, HEAVY  
RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING  
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS  
WITH TRAINING OF STORMS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. CONFIDENCE  
CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING GIVEN  
RECENT RAINS AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP OVER THE PAST MONTH  
COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1-2" RANGE ON  
TOP OF THE 1-1.5" WE'RE LIKELY TO SEE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WHILE  
STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY, THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION BEARS  
WATCHING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  
 
BEHIND THE FRONT, QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND THE  
JULY 4TH HOLIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION. SEASONAL  
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S/80S ARE LIKELY, AS WELL AS MORE COMFORTABLE  
HUMIDITY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH  
THE PERIOD. EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY THROUGH 12Z...THERE WILL  
BE SOME LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS AND SOME FOG OVER PARTS OF  
NORTHERN NEW YORK THAT WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF IFR AND LIFR  
CONDITIONS AT KMSS AND KSLK. SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS  
AFTERNOON BUT AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND THUS HAVE  
ONLY MENTIONED VICINITY SHOWERS BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. LIGHT WINDS  
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AT  
SPEEDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER 00Z AGAIN.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
THURSDAY: VFR/MVFR. LIKELY SHRA.  
THURSDAY NIGHT: MVFR. LIKELY SHRA...SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.  
FRIDAY: VFR. LIKELY SHRA...SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.  
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR/MVFR. LIKELY SHRA...SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.  
SATURDAY: VFR/MVFR. LIKELY SHRA...SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.  
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. LIKELY SHRA...SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.  
SUNDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA...SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.  
 

 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON  
NEAR TERM...EVENSON  
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF  
LONG TERM...LAHIFF  
AVIATION...EVENSON  
 
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