396  
FXUS61 KBTV 190504  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
104 AM EDT SAT AUG 19 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED WEATHER SATURDAY  
AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. SUNDAY WILL BE  
MOSTLY SUNNY, DRY AND WARM. THAT SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER WILL  
CONTINUE MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR PERFECT CONDITIONS TO VIEW THE  
SOLAR ECLIPSE. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
RETURN FOR LATE TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 104 AM EDT SATURDAY...LINE OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE  
EAST ACROSS VERMONT EARLY THIS MORNING. THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF  
THE LINE IS WEAKENING...BUT BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE  
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LINE. HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST  
TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION OVER VERMONT WITH NOTHING IN NORTHERN NEW  
YORK. SHOULD STILL KEEP QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS AROUND EARLY THIS  
MORNING ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME FOG...WHICH GOING  
FORECAST HAS COVERED WELL.  
 
SATURDAY: ANOTHER DAY THAT WILL BE ON THE SLIGHTLY WARM AND  
HUMID SIDE, BUT NOT AN UNCOMMON MID-SUMMER DAY. AT UPPER LEVELS,  
THERE WILL BE A TROUGH OFF TO OUR WEST, PUTTING US IN DEEP  
SOUTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL STILL BE  
RELATIVELY DRY, SO THIS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE  
ACTIVITY. HI-RES MODELS DO INDICATE A FEW HIT OR MISS (BUT  
MOSTLY MISS) SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. AS SUCH, HAVE  
SOME 20-35% POPS, HIGHEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN  
VERMONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL,  
WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODELS ALL INDICATE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE  
PASSING OVERHEAD, AND THIS PASSAGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDS  
AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. KEPT POPS IN THE 25-35% RANGE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 350 PM EDT FRIDAY...IF YOU LOVE OUTDOOR SUMMER ACTIVITIES,  
SUNDAY WILL DEFINITELY BE A DAY TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF IT. PLENTY  
OF SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S, AND MOST  
IMPORTANTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS -- ALL THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE  
RIDGING AND A WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGING IN THE DRIER AIR.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 350 PM EDT FRIDAY...FIRST...ECLIPSE. PARTIAL FOR  
CWA...BASICALLY 58-65 PERCENT. SKY CONDITIONS LOOKING VERY  
FAVORABLE. PARTIAL BEGINS AT BTV AROUND 1725 UTC AND ENDS AROUND  
1953 UTC ACCORDING TO NASA ECLIPSE SIGHT.  
 
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS AREA ON MONDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH SOUTH OF  
AREA, THIS WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW FOR SOME INCREASED HUMIDITY AND  
CLOUDS BUT REALLY NOT TIL TUESDAY. A PRETTY NICE ECLIPSE DAY  
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND SUNSHINE.  
 
THE NEXT SYSTEM HAS BEEN DELAYED AS ITS AWAITING A SHARP, DEEP  
SHORTWAVE FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO DROP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS  
TUESDAY AND THEN ROTATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT  
AND LIFT NE INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY. THE TIMING LOOKING  
LIKE MORE OF A TUE NGT-WED FEATURE. HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPS IN  
THE M-U80S WITH RICH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND PWATS APPROACHING  
1.75 INCHES SHOULD PRODUCE SFC BASED CAPES IN THE 1000-1500  
RANGE AT LEAST. ALSO...DESPITE THE MAIN DYNAMICS AND SURFACE  
FRONT STILL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, THERE ARE FALLING  
HEIGHTS...DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND INDICATIONS OF SOME PRE-  
FRONTAL TROF, THUS CHANCE FOR T-STORMS WILL INCREASE TOWARD  
EVENING...ESP NY AND INTL BORDER. WIND DYNAMICS DON'T LOOK TOO  
FAVORABLE AND TIMING MAY JUST BE TOO LATE BUT STILL WORTH  
WATCHING AS THEY WILL INCREASE TUE NGT.  
 
LEADING, STRONG SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE THROUGH TUE  
NGT- MIDDAY WED. BY WED AFTN...FRONT SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF CWA.  
TROF AXIS STILL WEST OF CWA WED NGT-THU WITH SURFACE HIGH STILL  
WEST AS WELL. THEREFORE, SOME UNSTABLE FLOW BUT PWATS FALL TO  
AROUND 0.50 INCHES ON THU. CURRENT THINKING IS LARGELY MOUNTAIN  
UPSLOPE SHOWER/SPRINKLE. HIGHS ON THU L-M70S.  
 
THU NGT-FRI DEEP TROF AXIS PASSES AREA WITH SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO REGION THUS PRIMARILY DRY AND COOLER  
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN U60S-L-M70S. A COOL START WITH LOWS IN  
THE 40S/50S AND SOME POSSIBLE UPPER 30S. FRIDAY NGT-SAT MORNING  
SHOULD BE AS COOL OR COOLER.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...WE'LL CONTINUE TO SEE A MIX OF AVIATION WX  
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
STRATUS DECK REMAINS IN PLACE EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS, AND  
SHOULD CONTINUE TO HOLD THRU THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WITH CEILINGS  
RANGING FROM 500 TO 1500 FT WITH TRRN OBSCD. BETTER MIXING WEST  
OF THE GREEN MTNS WITH PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE SOME  
LOCALIZED MVFR CEILINGS VCNTY OF SLK/MSS AFTER 06Z, BUT  
OTHERWISE SCT-BKN CONDITIONS EXPECTED. UPPER TROUGH PASSING TO  
OUR NORTH IS PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT THAT A FEW  
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 03Z OR SO THIS  
EVENING. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE SOUTH OF SLK WITH PERHAPS TSRA AT  
RUT 01-03Z TIME FRAME AS LINE OF TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL NY MOVES  
EWD. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLD CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS  
EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY TSTMS. GENERALLY  
LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE AFTER 13Z SATURDAY.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.  
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
TUESDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA...CHANCE TSRA.  
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. LIKELY SHRA...CHANCE TSRA.  
WEDNESDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.  
 

 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...NASH  
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/NASH  
SHORT TERM...NASH  
LONG TERM...SLW  
AVIATION...BANACOS/NASH  
 
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