022
FXUS61 KBUF 112320
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
720 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MUCH WARMER BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MUCH WARMER BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST OFF OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST, ALLOWING FOR A WARM FRONT TO SLIDE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE
ENTRANCE OF THE WARM FRONT, A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIE ON THE
NORTHERN EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA, ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION, DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT.
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE A ZONAL TO WEAKLY RIDGED FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH MULTIPLE WEAK TO MODEST
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE MEAN LARGER-SCALE FLOW
AND CROSSING OUR REGION. IN THE PROCESS...THESE WILL INTERACT WITH
AND MODULATE THE POSITION OF A LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST...RESULTING IN THE LATTER WOBBLING
ABOUT ACROSS OUR REGION WHILE ALSO SERVING AS THE CONDUIT FOR
OCCASIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...
THOUGH THERE WILL ALSO BE FREQUENT DRY PERIODS INTERSPERSED.
THE FIRST SUCH WAVE WILL CROSS OUR REGION ON MONDAY WITH FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...THOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE PRETTY
LIMITED AT THIS JUNCTURE. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OUT AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE ALSO APPEARS LIKELY TO SUPPORT A PERIOD OF BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS
(GUSTS TO 40 MPH) MOST LIKELY NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE DURING MONDAY.
THIS FIRST IMPULSE WILL THEN BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WAVE
LATER MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...WITH THE LATTER BRINGING ANOTHER
LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN
BETTER INSTABILITY. AFTER THAT TIME...THE INCREASINGLY DISTANT
VANTAGE POINT AND INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF SUCH WAVES
RESULT IN PROGRESSIVELY LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK.
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT READINGS
MORE TYPICAL OF LATE SPRINGTIME THAN THE SECOND WEEK OF APRIL.
EXPECT DAILY HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE 70S AWAY FROM
LAKE INFLUENCES...WITH A FEW OF OUR NORMAL INTERIOR WARM SPOTS
(HELLO DANSVILLE) POSSIBLY EVEN REACHING OR BREAKING THE 80 DEGREE
MARK AT POINTS IF PRECIP/CLOUD COVERAGE ALLOW. MEANWHILE...NIGHTLY
LOWS INITIALLY RANGING FROM THE 40S EAST TO UPPER 50S WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 50S/LOWER 60S FROM MONDAY NIGHT
ONWARD.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FOR THE 00Z TAFS VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE FOUND WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY EXITING TO THE EAST OF THE REGION.
THE FINAL 6 HOURS OF THE TAF CYCLE WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES
FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS (ONCE THE DRY LOWER LEVELS ARE OVERCOME
WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION) WITH GREATEST CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN AIRFIELDS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR (IFR AT TIMES) WITH A FEW
SHOWERS LIKELY AT TIMES, ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES, WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES OVERHEAD, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN TO BELOW 10 KNOTS.
A FRESHENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EAJ/JJR
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...EAJ
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