716  
FXUS61 KBUF 141159  
AFDBUF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY  
659 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY.  
WIDESPREAD MAINLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE  
LAKES THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISHING BY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES  
WILL RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A PAIR OF SYSTEMS  
POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN TO THE REGION MONDAY  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE DOWN ACROSS WESTERN AND  
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY. WIDESPREAD NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE  
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPRAY THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE  
ONTARIO. LESSER ACTIVITY STREAMING OFF LAKE ERIE SOUTH OF  
BUFFALO. SNOWFALL HAS BEEN GENERALLY LIGHT...AND CONTINUES TO SHOW  
A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING  
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING LOW LEVELS.  
 
ONLY LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG LAKESHORE  
AREAS THIS MORNING...THEREFORE ADVISORY HEADLINES HAVE BEEN  
DROPPED.  
 
BITTERLY COLD REGIONAL TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING IN THE NEGATIVE  
SINGLE DIGITS AND NEGATIVE TEENS TO EVEN AS COLD AS NEAR 35 BELOW  
AT WATERTOWN. WIND SPEEDS ARE CONTINUING TO DIMINISH BUT STILL  
REMAIN ELEVATED JUST ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE CONTINUATION OF THE  
WIND CHILL WARNING FOR AREAS EAST OF ROCHESTER THIS MORNING.  
 
THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR STARTS TO RETREAT BY THIS  
AFTERNOON...SO IT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS BITTER AS SATURDAY. EXPECT  
HIGHS GETTING JUST ABOVE ZERO AROUND THE NORTH COUNTY AND PERHAPS  
NEAR 10 ABOVE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
TWO SHORTWAVES SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING  
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY  
TIMEFRAME.  
 
THIS FIRST WAVE...OVER NE/SD THIS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL SPREAD  
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS IT PASSES BY.  
THERMAL PROFILES ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT ANY PRECIPITATION  
THAT FALLS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. BY MONDAY NIGHT THERE IS A  
LITTLE UNCERTAINTY CREEPING INTO THE FORECAST AS THE TOP OF THE  
MOISTURE LAYER IS STRIPPED FROM THE SNOW DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THERE  
WILL A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  
 
THE SECOND WAVE...OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA THIS SUNDAY MORNING WILL  
DROP ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUNDAY...WHERE IT WILL THEN PICK UP A  
SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL THEN  
DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW AS THE LOW TRACKS TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS.  
HERE IS WHERE UNCERTAINTY INCREASES. AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE  
APPALACHIANS...IT MAY FORM A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE  
DELMARVA PENINSULA TUESDAY AS PER THE 00Z ECMWF. THE 00Z GFS TRACKS  
DEEPENS THE SURFACE LOW TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. ALSO THERE  
IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH WARM AIR PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO  
OUR REGION TUESDAY. LATEST SREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE NEARLY SPLIT AS  
TO THE P-TYPE...WHETHER PLAIN RAIN OR SNOW. FOR NOW WILL LEAN  
TOWARDS MORE SNOW THAN RAIN...ON ACCOUNT FOR DYNAMIC COOLING  
ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF PRECIPITATION FORMING ALONG A DECENT 850  
HPA FRONTOGENETIC ZONE. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THIS  
FRONTOGENETIC BAND WILL FORM IN THE VICINITY OF THE GENESEE VALLEY  
AND NORTHERN FINGER LAKES REGION. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY TO THE  
TRACK...THERMAL PROFILES AND WHERE A HEAVIER BAND OF PRECIPITATION  
MAY MATERIALIZE...WITH THE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY STORM SYSTEM  
WILL MENTION FOR NOW THE POSSIBILITY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE  
HWO PRODUCT.  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW...MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND  
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITHIN A COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME  
MAY BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT.  
 
TEMPERATURE READINGS MONDAY WILL CLIMB TO NEAR THE FREEZING  
MARK...WHILE ON TUESDAY THE AIRMASS WILL WARM TO A FEW  
DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
TRAILING THE TUESDAY STORM...LINGERING TROUGHINESS WILL KEEP CHANCES  
FOR WINTER WEATHER IN PLACE MIDWEEK THEN A WAVY ZONAL PACIFIC MID-  
LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS THE CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS  
PACIFIC FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY SEAL OFF ANY ARCTIC AIR TO THE NORTH  
WITH TEMPERATURES THEN WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL. ON WEDNESDAY...A  
TRAILING WEAK CLIPPER OR SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO CROSS THE GREAT  
LAKES BRINGING A BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER AIR AND CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT  
SNOW SHOWERS. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST OF  
THE LAKES INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS  
BRIEFLY CLIMB TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10KFT.  
 
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO ABOVE  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS  
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LATTER SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING RENEWED  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO OUR REGION...WITH ANY PRECIP LIKELY  
CHANGING OVER FROM SNOW TO RAIN AS THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WARMS ON  
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY AN CHANGEOVER BACK TO CHANCES  
OF SNOW SATURDAY WITH COOLER FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DIMINISH SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE AND AT THE  
WEST END OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR  
AND THEN VFR. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PERSIST LONGER SOUTHEAST OF LAKE  
ONTARIO...WITH AREAS OF IFR THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY FROM JUST EAST OF  
KROC TO KFZY. THIS TOO WILL SLOWLY END SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH  
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.  
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY POSSIBLY MIXED  
WITH RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.  
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.  
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOWER LAKES AND BRINGS  
DIMINISHING WINDS DURING THE DAY TODAY. LINGERING SMALL CRAFT  
CONDITION ON EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE BY  
MIDDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TURN OUT OF THE  
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT THEN SOUTHERLY MONDAY. A LOW CROSSING THE AREA  
TUESDAY WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST BUT WINDS  
SPEEDS SHOULD STAY UNDER 20 KNOTS.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH NEAR  
RECORD BREAKING COLD LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BELOW ARE SOME  
CLIMATE STATS AND RECORDS REGARDING THIS WEEKEND.  
 
BUFFALO:  
 
COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER: -10F FEBRUARY 15TH AND 16TH  
 
RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -9F 1914  
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -13F 1943  
 
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 5F 1899  
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 5F 1979  
 
ROCHESTER:  
 
COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER: -11F FEBRUARY 20TH AND 21ST  
 
RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -12F 1979  
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -14F 1979  
 
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 9F 1979  
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 6F 1979  
 
WATERTOWN:  
 
COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER: -36F FEBRUARY 16TH  
 
RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -28F 1979  
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -30F 1979  
 
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 1F 1979  
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -1F 1979  
 

 
   
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ003>008-  
021.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...TMA  
NEAR TERM...TMA  
SHORT TERM...THOMAS  
LONG TERM...SMITH  
AVIATION...TMA  
MARINE...TMA  
CLIMATE...THOMAS  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab NY Page Main Text Page