204  
FXUS61 KBUF 232059  
AFDBUF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY  
359 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM  
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES  
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND  
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF  
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE  
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE  
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS INCREASINGLY WARM  
AIR SURGES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARDS  
ON THE NOSE OF A 60 TO 70 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. A STRONG TEMPERATURE  
INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY PROTECT  
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...HOWEVER WITH  
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOWING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY  
ORIENTATION TO THE FLOW AND THE INVERSION SETTING UP NEAR THE  
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG DOWNSLOPING  
WINDS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...WHERE A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS  
IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.  
 
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING THE  
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP LAYERED  
MOISTURE IS FOCUSED INTO THE REGION ON THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW  
LEVEL JET. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR  
WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN  
INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. DESPITE THE  
LIMITED RAINFALL THREAT...THE IMMENSE VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE  
SNOWMELT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CREATE A  
PERSISTENT FLOOD THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND  
AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.  
 
MORE WARMING EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.  
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS...  
BEFORE AN INBOUND MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE  
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TUCKED  
BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER COVERAGE TO  
INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.  
 
THE MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT OF CONCERN REMAINS THE WIND POTENTIAL AS  
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES BY THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG  
POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TAKES HOLD DURING THIS TIME. GUST  
POTENTIAL WILL CAPITALIZE ON A PERIOD OF STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC  
DESCENT AND AN INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN  
WITH THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS. RECENT GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WIND SPEEDS IN  
THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE AT 925 MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE GUSTS TO 60  
MPH DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WITH 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE.  
GREATEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE CENTERED FROM 21Z AND INTO THE FIRST HALF  
OF MONDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS THIS PERIOD OPENS...DEEP LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINISH  
PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE  
EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN/NARROW BAND OF  
SHOWERS AS IT CLEARS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH  
STRONG DRY SLOTTING IN ITS WAKE THEN GENERALLY BRINGING DRY WEATHER  
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS  
TO THIS WILL BE IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...WHERE THE  
COMBINATION OF SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE PREVAILING  
CYCLONIC LARGE-SCALE FLOW COULD HELP TO GENERATE A FEW ADDITIONAL  
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE THE LAKES SHOULD DEFINITELY CONTRIBUTE  
SOME MOISTURE TO HELP THESE ALONG...THESE WILL NOT BE TRULY LAKE  
EFFECT IN NATURE GIVEN THAT 850 MB TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL TO -5C/-6C  
BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...OR LEVELS THAT ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR A PURE  
LAKE RESPONSE.  
 
OF MUCH GREATER CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR  
STRONG WINDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...A STRONG LOW  
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT WITH 925 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS  
55-60 KNOTS AND 850 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 65-70 KNOTS...AND STRONG  
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX THESE DOWN  
TO THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND THE  
USUAL FUNNELING EFFECTS...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME WARNING-  
CRITERIA WIND GUSTS FROM CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE  
NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE ROCHESTER AREA...WITH SIMILAR GUSTS ALSO  
POSSIBLE /THOUGH NOT AS QUITE A SURE THING/ ACROSS THE NORTH  
COUNTRY. ELSEWHERE THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG...  
THOUGH THESE WILL PROBABLY STILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.  
 
WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE  
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE  
ERIE...WHILE A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF LAKE  
ONTARIO...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT  
THE STRONGEST OVERALL WINDS TO BE IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE  
ERIE...WHERE SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING  
MASSIVE SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES  
AND POWER OUTAGES...WHICH WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN FOR THOSE HOPING  
TO KEEP THEIR BASEMENTS DRY.  
 
ON TUESDAY...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE COURSE OF  
THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS/DEPARTS OUR REGION AND THE  
OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY  
BREEZY TO WINDY RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME LINGERING  
ADVISORY-TYPE GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY. IN TERMS OF PRECIP  
CHANCES...THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION  
AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH  
SHOULD HELP TO FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW  
AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...THOUGH THIS IS  
LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST IN EXTENT DUE TO EXPECTED MARGINAL  
TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND LAKE INDUCED EQLS IN THE 5-7 KFT RANGE. AS  
A RESULT...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN OF THE NUISANCE-TYPE  
VARIETY. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...CONDITIONS SHOULD  
REMAIN LARGELY DRY.  
 
ADDITIONAL NUISANCE-TYPE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THEN  
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BEFORE  
GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH  
PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE  
REGION...WHILE ALSO FORCING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO BECOME  
LIGHTER/INCREASINGLY SHEARED. BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THIS  
ACTIVITY TO EITHER END ALTOGETHER OR BE PUSHED OUT OF OUR AREA AS  
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO AN UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR LAKE  
EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.  
 
FOLLOWING THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT...OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A  
DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING  
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE  
TRENDING MORE AND MORE DEVELOPED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH COULD  
ULTIMATELY PRODUCE A PRE-THANKSGIVING SNOWSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF  
EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...IT  
APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL BE MORE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THIS  
SYSTEM AND THUS SUBJECT TO MUCH LIGHTER PRECIP...THOUGH THE EXACT  
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT  
THIS PARTICULAR TIME. TAKING BOTH THE ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL TRENDS  
AND ALSO THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY INTO CONSIDERATION...FOR NOW HAVE  
ELECTED TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR OUR AREA WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF THIS  
FOUND ALONG OUR EASTERN PERIPHERY.  
 
AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AGAIN FALL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS  
FOLLOWING MONDAY EVENING'S FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN WILL REMAIN THERE  
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH  
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND  
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE  
MOISTURE WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF LAKE  
EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW  
WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN  
NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND  
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT JUST A GENERAL  
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW.  
 
ON FRIDAY...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE  
EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD  
AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE  
INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...THINGS GET MUCH MORE  
UNCERTAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES  
FLOPPING AROUND BETWEEN TWO GENERAL IDEAS...ONE OF WHICH SUGGESTS A  
STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDING OUR AREA A  
STRONG WARMUP AT SOME POINT...AND THE OTHER INDICATING A MUCH WEAKER  
TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR/MORE LAKE  
EFFECT POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE DISTANT TIME FRAME...OUR PREVIOUS  
CONTINUITY AND WPC PREFERENCES...HAVE ELECTED TO FOLLOW ALONG WITH  
THE LATTER SCENARIO FOR NOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE  
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT. PATCHY MVFR  
CONDITIONS WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME VFR AS THE  
SHOWERS END AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.  
 
LATER THIS EVENING...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A  
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY  
WILL LEAD TO STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE ALONG  
THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE WITH LLWS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE AS A STRONG  
LLJ MOVES OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. THE NOSE OF  
THIS JET WILL ALSO MARK THE LEADING A BROADER AREA OF RAINFALL  
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z...BRINGING MVFR  
CONDITIONS.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.  
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.  
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE  
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY  
THIS EVENING...SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON LAKE  
ERIE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A  
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK FROM THE  
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE  
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS...  
LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM BUFFALO TO  
RIPLEY TONIGHT.  
 
THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA VALLEY  
AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG COLD  
FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALES WILL DEVELOP ON BOTH  
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE  
TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.  
 
GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK  
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH  
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE  
NORTHERLY WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW  
TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6  
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT  
SNOW AREAS.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT AND ONLY FALL INTO THE  
MID 40S...BEFORE RISING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS  
THE REGION ARE ABOVE 32 AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE INTO  
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE HIGHER  
DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT  
RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL  
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL  
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH AREAL  
FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT  
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.  
 
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL  
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS  
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE  
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.  
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN  
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING  
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS  
THREAT.  
 
THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS  
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST  
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS  
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES  
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD  
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW  
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE  
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER  
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.  
 
THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE  
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL  
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN  
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO  
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG  
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT  
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR  
NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.  
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR  
NYZ019-085.  
LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE  
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ019-085.  
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY  
NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.  
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ004-  
005-013-014-020-021.  
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-  
040-041.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST  
MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.  
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR  
LOZ030-042-062.  
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR  
LOZ043>045-063>065.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST  
TUESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...TMA  
NEAR TERM...TMA  
SHORT TERM...JJR  
LONG TERM...JJR  
AVIATION...TMA  
MARINE...TMA  
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH  
 
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