840  
FXUS61 KBUF 281405  
AFDBUF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY  
1005 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS  
MORNING WILL SLOWLY END TODAY AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE  
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WAY OFF THE MARK AT MORE THAN 20  
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY  
CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER LASTING  
INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR NORTH WILL BRING A FEW RAIN  
AND WET SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A STRONGER  
PUSH OF WARM AIR ARRIVES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AT 930 AM...RADAR/SATELLITE SHOW THE BULK OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW  
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA INCLUDING WESTERN  
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...BOSTON HILLS...AND UPPER GENESEE  
VALLEY. MEANWHILE...DRIER AIR IS MOVING ACROSS LAKE  
ONTARIO HAS CAUSED LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND CLOUDS TO DIMINISH CLOSER  
TO THE LAKE/S SOUTH SHORES. FORECAST UPDATE REFLECTS THESE  
TRENDS...WITH THE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF  
LATE MORNING AS THE DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO BUILD IN. UNTIL  
THEN...THERE COULD BE A DUSTING UP TO AN INCH LOCALLY THROUGH THE  
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS...MAINLY CONFINED TO FAVORABLE  
UPSLOPE REGIONS IN THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE MOST OF THE SNOW  
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TO FLURRIES AND END BY MIDDAY OR EARLY  
AFTERNOON WITH ONGOING DRY AIR ADVECTION.  
 
CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY IN MOST AREAS WITH THE  
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT SUPPORTING PLENTY OF  
STRATO-CU. THE BEST CHANCE OF SOME SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON  
WILL BE NEAR THE LAKES AS STRONG MIXING ATTEMPTS TO FLIP THE LAKE  
PROCESS FROM CLOUD GENERATOR TO MORE STABLE LAKE SHADOWS.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WAY OFF THE MARK TODAY...WITH MID 20S ON  
THE LAKE PLAINS AND UPPER TEENS ON THE HILLS. THIS IS MORE THAN 20F  
BELOW NORMAL. NORTH WINDS AT 12-15 KNOTS WILL PRODUCE SINGLE DIGIT  
WIND CHILLS AT TIMES MAKING IT FEEL LIKE MID-WINTER.  
 
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A  
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER LAKES. THIS WILL  
PROVIDE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OUTSIDE OF SOME LIMITED LAKE EFFECT  
CLOUDS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE CLEARING SKIES...RELATIVELY  
LIGHT WINDS...AND A COLD/DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL  
COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE TEENS  
ON THE LAKE PLAINS WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE COLDER SOUTHERN TIER  
VALLEYS AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL PUSH A SURFACE HIGH FROM  
THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE  
SOUTH...BRINGING INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT  
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO  
RECOVER AFTER THE COLD DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH LATE-DAY HIGH  
TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 30S. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL  
ALSO BRING SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING ALONG THE GENESEE VALLEY AND THE  
NORTHERN FINGER LAKES REGION...WITH SOME LOW 40 DEGREE READINGS NOT  
OUT OF THE QUESTION.  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WORK ACROSS THE  
AREA...AND THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE  
FORECAST AREA. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...INCREASING QG FORCING AHEAD OF THE  
VORT MAX WILL SPREAD A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE  
AREA. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY  
MORNING...AND WILL ACT TO HELP TO BETTER ORGANIZE THE PRECIPITATION.  
THIS MAY BE THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW  
ACCUMULATIONS...BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY...HOWEVER SURFACE TEMPERATURES  
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY MARGINAL. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME  
MORE SCATTERED/SHOWERY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY...AND SHOULD  
BECOME PRIMARILY RAIN AS DAYTIME HEATING WORKS TO MODIFY A VERY  
MARGINAL AIRMASS. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD  
FRONT PASSAGE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THE  
FAVORABLE SURFACE LOW TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL  
SUPPORT A CORE OF 40 TO 50 KNOT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 925 MB. LOW-LEVEL  
LIFT AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO  
LIMIT THE FULL MIXING POTENTIAL OF THESE STRONG WIND ALOFT...BUT  
WILL LIKELY STILL RESULT IN WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS  
40 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL MAINLY BE ALONG THE LAKES AND LAKE  
SHORES / THE NIAGARA FRONTIER DUE TO WINDS FUNNELING UP LAKE ERIE /  
AND INTO THE LOWER SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY OFF LAKE ONTARIO.  
 
BY MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS OUT AND  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM WEST  
TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT  
COLD AIR CONNECTION BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW...LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY  
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S.  
 
BY TUESDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE  
DIVING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO PA. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL  
DISAGREEMENT ON THE EXACT NORTH/SOUTH PLACEMENT OF THE WAVE AS IT  
MOVES QUICKLY OFF THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EC SOLUTION  
CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE SHARPER WITH THE WAVE... WHICH ENHANCES THE  
FORCING AND ALSO PULLS IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEW  
YORK STATE THAN THE GFS SUGGESTS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN SEEING  
PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY IS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...WITH CHANCES  
DIMINISHING TOWARD THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHICH MAY SEE LITTLE TO NO  
IMPACT. ALSO GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH COLD AIR THE SYSTEM  
CAN TAP INTO...PTYPE REMAINS IN QUESTION. EVEN IF IT WERE COLD  
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW...SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SOLAR INSOLATION MAY  
BE ENOUGH TO MITIGATE ACCUMULATIONS. THE SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS  
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS AND LOW TEMPERATURES BACK IN  
THE MID TO UPPER 20S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SOME  
LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING  
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY / WHICH LOOKS LIKE  
THE ONLY CERTAIN DRY DAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. AS THE RIDGE AXIS  
WORK ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES  
ESTABLISHED ALOFT...TEMPERATURES COULD PUSH WELL INTO 50S. THE TRADE  
OFF FOR THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND  
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.  
 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMING MORE  
UNSETTLED BY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS OVERALL TROUGHING  
LOOKS LOOKS TO BE A SURE BET. HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE  
WITH THE EXACT DETAILS. FOLLOWING THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF BOTH THE  
GFS AND ECMWF...THE SOLUTIONS HAVE BOUNCED AROUND ON SHOWING A  
STRONG LOW DEVELOPING IN THE FRIDAY TO SATURDAY TIME FRAME.  
HOWEVER...THE TRACKS OF THE SURFACE LOW HAVE RANGED FROM JUST WEST  
OF THE FORECAST AREA TO A COASTAL LOW TRACK / AND SOME OF THE  
OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS LOSING THE SYSTEM AT TIMES. THE EC AND SEVERAL  
OF THE GFS/EC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN  
DEVELOPING THIS STRONGER SYSTEM...WITH THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS SHOWING  
A TREND TOWARD A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON  
THIS TIME FRAME FOR A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY  
AFTERNOON WITH VSBY IMPROVING TO MVFR AND THEN VFR. CIGS WILL ALSO  
IMPROVE FROM AREAS OF MVFR IN THE MORNING TO MAINLY VFR BY  
AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME MIXING. TONIGHT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE  
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MAINLY CLEAR  
SKIES...EXCEPT FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND LOCAL MVFR CIGS  
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO MAINLY EAST OF KROC.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
SUNDAY...VFR.  
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.  
WEDNESDAY...VFR.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
MODERATE NORTHERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT  
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY. HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES TONIGHT WITH WINDS  
SUBSIDING TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.  
 
A MODERATELY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE  
LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF STRONGER  
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE  
OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO. IT APPEARS SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD  
PEAK OUT AROUND 30 KNOTS...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW END GALES  
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MONDAY AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NY...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOZ030-  
042-043.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK  
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK  
SHORT TERM...CHURCH  
LONG TERM...CHURCH  
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK  
MARINE...HITCHCOCK  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab NY Page Main Text Page