918  
FXUS61 KBUF 241440  
AFDBUF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY  
1040 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING  
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH WILL  
THEN SHIFT EAST TO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW  
PRESSURE SHIFTS FROM THE MIDWEST TOWARD NEW YORK STATE. THIS SYSTEM  
WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME SHOWERS  
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE COOLER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE  
UPCOMING WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD  
DIRECTLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A FINE  
THOUGH SEASONABLY COOL LATE APRIL DAY ALONG WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF  
SUNSHINE. 850 MB TEMPS RUNNING IN THE -1C TO -3C RANGE BY MID TO  
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE  
LOWER TO MID 50S...THOUGH THE SOUTHERN SHORELINES OF BOTH LAKES ERIE  
AND ONTARIO WILL SEE READINGS CONFINED TO THE 40S GIVEN THE  
PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.  
 
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL  
SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM  
SHIFTING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AND LOWER  
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT THAT RAIN HOLDS OFF UNTIL DAYBREAK  
FRIDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND THE MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP  
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP  
INTO THE LOW AND MID 30S ACROSS WNY BUT LESS CLOUD COVER AND LIGHTER  
WINDS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL HELP TEMPS COOL INTO THE UPPER 20S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
WE SHOULD SEE A DRY START TO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL  
RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER WE WILL LIKELY BE SEEING  
SHOWERS MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A  
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW APPROACH THE  
LOWER GREAT LAKES. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD PUSH  
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA.  
 
THE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO SPLIT INTO TWO CENTERS AS THE SOUTHERN  
STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF THE LOW  
WILL WELL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA...HOWEVER A NORTHERN STREAM  
UPPER LOW CROSSING THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL AID IN MAINTAINING  
A NORTHERN SURFACE CIRCULATION THAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR  
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS  
THE AREA. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH  
THE NIGHT...LINGERING LONGEST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE UPSLOPE  
FLOW AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW TRACK WILL KEEP THE  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS HIGHER THAN ELSEWHERE. NONETHELESS THE CHANCE FOR  
SHOWERS CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST  
AREA ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE  
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW DROPS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.  
THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN COOLER  
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS  
MOST AREAS. THERE IS A EVEN SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION  
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AS TEMPERATURES  
THERE WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 
LOOK FOR A CLEARING/DRYING TREND TO START SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE  
UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO NEW ENGLAND AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN  
FROM THE MIDWEST. LINGERING COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BELOW  
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
THE ABOVE-MENTIONED RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE  
THE RESULT OF A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WHILE THIS  
FEATURE WILL ULTIMATELY DEVELOP INTO A LARGE UPPER LEVEL/SURFACE LOW  
THAT WILL AN EXTENDED BOUT OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE MISSISSIPPI  
AND OHIO VALLEYS...THE RESULTANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AHEAD OF THIS  
FEATURE SHOULD KEEP WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK DRY AT LEAST  
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT WE SHOULD SEE INCREASING RAIN  
CHANCES FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARDS AS THE BROAD LOW MEANDERS ACROSS  
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE ACCOMPANYING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY  
LIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THERE CONTINUE TO BE TIMING  
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT'S  
PROGRESSION INTO OUR AREA...WITH THE GFS AS USUAL BEING THE FASTER  
OF THE MEMBERS AND THE ECMWF/GEM ON THE SLOWER SIDE WITH THE  
FORECAST TILTING MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF SPEED. NEVERTHELESS THE  
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL LIKELY SEE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOL  
AND WET WEATHER DEVELOP BY TUESDAY EVENING AT THE LATEST AND THIS  
WILL LIKELY EXTEND THROUGH THE BULK OF THE COMING WEEK AS THIS LOW  
DRIFTS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE  
SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.  
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVE ACTION WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT AS  
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THEN  
INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY AND EASTERLY WINDS WILL HELP BUILD WAVES  
ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN LAKE SHORES ON FRIDAY. WHILE THE  
STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST WAVES SHOULD REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE...  
CONDITIONS MAY STILL APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE WESTERNMOST  
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO ON FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
A COOL AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP  
INTO THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE INLAND FROM THE LAKES THIS AFTERNOON.  
THESE SAME WINDS WILL ALSO GUST TO 20 TO 30 MPH ACROSS FAR EASTERN  
PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH  
SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER GUSTS FOUND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.  
WHILE THE RH VALUES WILL MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA AREAWIDE...OUR WINDS  
WILL BE BELOW CRITERIA ACROSS ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE NORTH COUNTRY...  
AND FUELS SHOULD STILL BE FAIRLY MOIST AREAWIDE WITH A QUARTER TO A  
HALF INCH OF RAIN HAVING FALLEN WITHIN THE PAST 48 HOURS. FINE  
FUEL MOISTURES ARE RUNNING LESS THAN 10 PERCENT...BUT 1000 HOUR  
FUELS ARE OVER 20 PERCENT. BASED ON ALL OF THIS...WE ARE NOT  
EXPECTED TO FULLY MEET ALL RED FLAG CRITERIA TODAY.  
 

 
   
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NY...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...JJR/SMITH  
NEAR TERM...JJR/SMITH  
SHORT TERM...WOOD  
LONG TERM...WOOD  
AVIATION...JJR/SMITH  
MARINE...JJR/SMITH  
FIRE WEATHER...JJR/SMITH  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab NY Page Main Text Page