181
FXUS61 KBUF 041139
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
739 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009
SYNOPSIS
A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS
THE SYSTEM WITHDRAWS...LEAVING BEHIND A GENERALLY RAIN FREE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING A LITTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL EACH
DAY. IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH A FEW SHOWERS
DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK THEN MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUING TO PUSH NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL
KEEP SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO AT
LEAST THE EARLY PART OF THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...SOME 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL TONIGHT WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER FOR ANY FOURTH OF JULY
ACTIVITIES. LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH EVEN SOME MID TO
UPPER 40S IN SOME OF THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP PRECIP AND MOST CLOUDINESS TO THE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. A 500MB LOW
WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL REBOUND TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS AS SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL. THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION WILL HAVE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS WITH COOLER MID 40S
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. THICKER CLOUDS WILL HOLD HIGHS ON
MONDAY TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE UPPER TROUGH LOCKED IN ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WILL HANG
IN FOR TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. THE TROUGH SHOULD BE CLEARING OUT OF THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN ON SUNSHINE AND HIGHS WARMING BACK
TO THE MID 70S. A WARM FRONT EDGES CLOSER TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
AND TO THE MID 80S ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUING TO PUSH NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF THE AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY
AFFECTING THE KART TAF SITE. SOME LOWER CLOUD CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST THIS MORNING AT MOST TAF SITES WITH BASES BETWEEN ONE
THOUSAND AND TWO THOUSAND FEET. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY
15Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN
ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR WINDS AND WAVES TO MEET SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG ALL OF THE LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE FROM
SODUS BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WINDS
WILL SLACKEN OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
WHEN THEY WILL PICK UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON LAKE ERIE AND 15 TO 20
KNOTS ON LAKE ONTARIO.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LOZ042-
043.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ044-045.
SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...WCH
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