516  
FXUS61 KBUF 271948  
AFDBUF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY  
348 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES  
REGION WITH GENERALLY FAIR AND SEASONABLE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AND  
THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WEST OF THE  
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.  
EXPECT THIS CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THE REST OF TODAY WITH  
CLEARING EXPECTED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.  
TEMPERATURE WISE, READINGS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90F  
WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY MAKING IT FEEL A BIT UNCOMFORTABLE OUTSIDE.  
 
TONIGHT...A WEAK, MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS  
THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH LEGITIMATELY COOLER AIR SLOWLY  
MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE MORE COMFORTABLE  
AIRMASS WILL NOT BE FULLY 'APPRECIATED' UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK THOUGH,  
AS TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL ONLY DROP OFF INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S  
FOR MOST AREAS. TUESDAY, THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF A FEW  
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY INLAND AND  
AWAY FROM THE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF THE LAKES. SPC HAS ISSUED A  
MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER TO THE EAST OF  
LAKE ONTARIO BUT IT'S LIKELY THAT THE LAKE BREEZE WILL HELP TO  
SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY  
WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND COMFORTABLE WITH 70S EXPECTED ACROSS THE  
REGION.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
ON TUESDAY NIGHT A CLOSED 500 MB LOW WILL TRACK NORTH OF LAKE  
ONTARIO WITH ITS TROUGH AXIS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS OUR  
REGION. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG FEATURE, IT WILL PASS  
OVERNIGHT WITH NO DIURNAL INSTABILITY. AS A RESULT, EXPECT THE AREAL  
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO BE SPOTTY AT BEST WITH LITTLE RAINFALL IN  
MOST AREAS TO HELP WITH DRY SOIL CONDITIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT  
RADIATIONAL COOLING, BUT THE COLD AIR MASS WILL STILL SUPPORT LOWS  
AVERAGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.  
 
ON WEDNESDAY THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM EASTERN NEW YORK  
INTO NEW ENGLAND. DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH THERE  
MAYBE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. ANY  
SHOWERS WOULD BE ALONG OR INLAND OF THE LAKE BREEZE WHICH WILL  
EXTEND NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS IS IN LINE WITH A CONSENSUS  
OF GUIDANCE WHICH HAS LIGHT CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN QPF IN THIS REGION.  
THERE WILL BE LIMITED INSTABILITY HERE BUT WITH COOL AIR ALOFT AN  
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE  
AREA WILL SEE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE  
INITIALLY FORCES DIURNAL CUMULUS TO DEVELOP INLAND FROM THE LAKES  
BEFORE MIXING OUT LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN JUST A  
TAD BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND  
AROUND 70 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.  
 
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN AFTER THIS, WITH HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO  
BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND THEN SHIFT ACROSS THE  
LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR  
WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES  
ON THURSDAY WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER  
80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT WHEN TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS ARE EXPECTED TO  
DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS REFLECT A  
SLIGHTLY WIDER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWING THAN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE DUE  
TO THE DRY AIRMASS INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
FRIDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION, WITH A WEAK  
COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS WNY AND CNY. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW  
CHANCE POPS ALONG THIS FRONT DUE TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND  
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT, DESPITE MOISTURE FIELDS THAT ARE NOT  
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE.  
 
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, JULY 4TH, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE  
FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES  
REGION. A MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE WARMING  
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE HIGH. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM  
FROM THE MID 70S FRIDAY, TO THE LOWER 80S BY MONDAY. THERE MAY BE A  
STRAY SHOWER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO SATURDAY WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE  
UPPER LEVEL LOW...OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER WILL  
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS DISSIPATED AT KBUF ALLOWING FOR VFR THE REST  
OF TODAY. ELSEWHERE, VFR WILL CONTINUE AT KJHW AND KROC WITH MVFR  
EXPECTED AT KART THROUGH 19Z AS THE LOW CLOUDINESS THERE SLOWLY  
EXITS TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.  
 
TONIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL  
BRING LOWERING CIGS AND POSSIBLY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY  
SHOWERS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE, ON TUESDAY EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS  
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.  
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.  
SATURDAY...VFR.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
TONIGHT, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH A CHANCE OF A  
FEW SHOWERS. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PICK UP  
DURING THE MIDDAY AND ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY. THIS  
WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR SOME CHOPPY WATERS EAST OF BRADDOCK BAY, BUT  
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES  
WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LIGHT  
WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES.  
 

 
   
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NY...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...AR  
NEAR TERM...AR/LEVAN  
SHORT TERM...APFFEL  
LONG TERM...THOMAS  
AVIATION...AR/LEVAN  
MARINE...AR/LEVAN  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab NY Page Main Text Page