488  
FXUS61 KBUF 192345  
AFDBUF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY  
645 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND  
THIS WEEKEND...WHILE BRINGING DRYING CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES TO OUR REGION. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND  
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A STORM SYSTEM THEN DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT  
LAKES AROUND THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY AND POTENTIALLY BRINGING OUR AREA  
A ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS...ALONG WITH RAIN EVENTUALLY CHANGING OVER TO  
SOME SNOW.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
THIS WILL BE A QUIET PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS ONTARIO  
PROVINCE AND THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK  
STATE. THIS WILL PROMOTE DRY WEATHER...THOUGH LOWER CLOUDS WILL  
LINGER IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE  
REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A STRONG AND SLOWLY LOWERING SUBSIDENCE  
INVERSION. THE MAIN EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH  
COUNTRY...WHERE STRONGER DRYING AND THE LACK OF AN OFF-LAKE FLOW  
SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR TONIGHT...THEN REMAIN  
PARTLY SUNNY ON SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE...SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE MAY ALSO  
DEVELOP ACROSS EXTREME FAR WESTERN NEW YORK DURING SATURDAY...WHILE  
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN THE GENERAL RULE ELSEWHERE.  
 
GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND THE LACK OF ANY REAL AIRMASS  
CHANGE...TEMPS WILL LARGELY CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT A SMALL DIURNAL  
RANGE IN THE NEAR TERM. LOWS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID  
20S TONIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S THEN  
FOLLOWING FOR SATURDAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL AGAIN BE  
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED PARTIAL CLEARING  
AND DRIER OVERALL AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 10 TO  
15 DEGREE RANGE TONIGHT...BEFORE RECOVERING TO THE UPPER 20S ON  
SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN RIDGED ACROSS  
THE NORTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL KEEP SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN  
PLACE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER. LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER  
OVERNIGHT TRAPPED BENEATH THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION BUT THE INVERSION  
WILL WEAKEN ON SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGING RELAXES. THIS MAY BRING  
A SHORT OPPORTUNITY TO FINALLY SEE SOME SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON  
HOURS.  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL  
DIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS CARVING OUT A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS  
THE CENTRAL STATES. THIS WILL FORM A SURFACE LOW FOLLOWING A SIMILAR  
PATH WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE  
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING BACK INCREASING CLOUD COVER  
WITH WARMING SURFACE TEMPS AND RISING DEWPOINTS. SOME WEAK SURFACE  
RIDGING WILL LINGER ACROSS OUR REGION WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE  
MAINLY CONTRIBUTING TO OVERCAST MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH JUST A  
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS  
PROFILES MOISTEN FROM THE TOP DOWN. IF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES A BIT  
FASTER THAN EXPECTED AS OFTEN OCCURS IN WARM ADVECTION...A THIN  
LAYER OF WARM AIR OVERRIDING SUBFREEZING SURFACE TEMPS MAY BRING A  
WINTERY MIX MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO  
ALL PLAIN RAIN. HIGHS MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S  
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH SOME LAKE SHORE AREAS REACHING 40  
DEGREES. THE NORTH COUNTY WILL REMAIN A BIT COOLER ONLY WARMING INTO  
THE MID 30S. WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL  
KEEP MILD TEMPS NOT FALLING MUCH MONDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
ALL EYES THEN FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A TRAVEL DISRUPTING WINTER  
STORM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES LEADING UP TO  
AND FOLLOWING THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY. THE OVERALL THEME WILL BE A  
COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH  
AND ASSOCIATED COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT SHIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE  
OHIO VALLEY...MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES. ON CHRISTMAS EVE  
WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING RAIN  
WITH MILD TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. A  
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS IS LIKELY ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT  
THEN COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ON  
CHRISTMAS DAY AS TEMPERATURES COOL ALONG WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG  
WINDS POSSIBLE.  
 
FINER DETAILS...ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND  
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR  
FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM  
INTO THE 40S THEN REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR RISE TUESDAY NIGHT  
REACHING NEAR 50 DEGREES BY CHRISTMAS EVE. 90 PERCENT OF NAEFS  
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE ABOVE CLIMO PWATS SO THERE COULD BE SOME  
PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL DURING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.  
 
THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK  
ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET OUT IN FRONT MAY BRING  
SOME STRONG CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN WINDS BUT THERE IS ALSO A DOWNSLOPE  
WIND THREAT AS WINDS FORCED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN  
TIER AND TUG HILL DESCEND DOWN TO THE LAKE SHORES. FOLLOWING THE  
FRONTAL PASSAGE COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT  
LAKES REGION. WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE IN THE WEST THE SOURCE REGION OF  
THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC BASED AND NOT ARCTIC BASED SO THIS  
LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING A REDUCED THREAT OF ANY  
SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS DEVELOPING AS 850MB TEMPS SHOULD ONLY DROP TO  
AROUND -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH HOWEVER FOR AN OVERALL  
CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW WITH A LAKE ENHANCEMENT PENDING AVAILABLE  
POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE.  
 
ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS IS POSSIBLE ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITHIN  
THE COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN  
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HELPING TO MIX 850MB WINDS OF 40-50KTS DOWN TO  
THE SURFACE. THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS LOW LEVEL JET  
SHOWING 50-60KTS. THERE IS STILL LACK OF FINER DETAILS IN EXACT  
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE WEATHER IMPACTS DURING THE WEEK OF  
CHRISTMAS. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUALLY BE UPDATED AS WE GET CLOSER  
AND THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS WILL WANT TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO  
THESE FORECAST UPDATES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.  
 
BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER  
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE  
LOWER GREAT LAKES. FURTHER OUT WE WILL BE WATCHING NEXT WEEKEND FOR  
ANOTHER POSSIBLE GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER  
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS A LOW STRATUS DECK  
REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF THE LAKES. THE  
EXCEPTION IS AT KART AND THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE NORTHERLY FLOW  
DOES NOT BRINGING ADDED MOISTURE FROM THE LAKES...RESULTING IN VFR  
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. KJHW IN THE HIGHER  
TERRAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER COULD DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS  
OVERNIGHT.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AREA WIDE.  
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.  
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.  
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.  
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN...GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO AND THE CENTRAL GREAT  
LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY TRANQUIL  
CONDITIONS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.  
 
LOOKING FURTHER OUT INTO NEXT WEEK...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS  
SHOULD CONTINUE UNDER A MODEST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME MONDAY AND  
TUESDAY...BEFORE A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM POTENTIALLY BRINGS  
STRONGER WINDS TO THE REGION CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.  
 

 
   
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NY...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...JJR  
NEAR TERM...JJR  
SHORT TERM...SMITH  
LONG TERM...SMITH  
AVIATION...CHURCH  
MARINE...JJR  
 
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