027
FXUS61 KBUF 091511
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1011 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2010
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER OUR REGION THIS
MORNING WHILE LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHEAST OHIO OVERNIGHT AND THEN
TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST. THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OFF
THE COAST WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MEASURABLE SNOW TO MOST
OF THE REGION WITH THE LEAST WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND
THE MOST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. THERE WILL BE MORE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
UPDATE AS OF 1010 AM...GOING FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE WITH ONLY
A FEW MINOR CHANGES NEEDED THIS MORNING...MAINLY TO DROP TEMPS A
CATEGORY OR SO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER BASED ON CURRENT OBS...AND TO
REDUCE ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO FLURRIES SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS. OTHERWISE...TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM
STILL LOOKS GOOD WITH A LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW SPREADING INTO
CHAUTAUQUA/CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND A
CHANCE OF SNOW REACHING AS FAR NE AS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER/ALLEGANY
COUNTY. THE PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
NAM IS A BIT SLOWER IN SPREADING SNOW NE INTO EXTREME SW PTNS OF THE
CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHILE GFS/UKMET IS FASTER BRINGING LEADING
EDGE OF SNOW INTO SOUTHERN FINGER LKS AND PTNS OF THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER, WHILE THE ECMWF IS IN BETWEEN. HPC GOING MORE TWD
GFS/UKMET SOLUTION WHICH TAKES THE CLOSED UPPER LOW FROM SOUTHERN
IOWA TO WEST VIRGINIA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, ONE SFC LOW OVER
THE GULF COAST MOVES TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY THIS EVENING AND
ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY, THAT MOVES
NORTHEAST TO OHIO LATE TONIGHT AND WEAKENS AS THE COASTAL LOW TAKES
OVER NEAR THE DELAWARE COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. I WILL LEAN MORE
TWD THE HPC SOLUTION WHICH IS A BIT A FASTER THAN OUR PREVIOS
FORECAST AND BRING IN CHC POPS INTO SW NY ERLY THIS AFTN, INCREASING
TO CAT POPS BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY WITH LOW CHC POPS INTO
PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER BY THE END OF THE DAY. ACCUMS SHLD
BE LESS THAN AN INCH EXTRME SW NY TODAY.
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF OUR CWA
TONIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW TAKES OVER. WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD THE
GENERAL SNOW NE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
AND SOUTHERN TIER, ACROSS THE FINGER LKS, TO OSWEGO COUNTY. WILL GO
WITH CAT POPS OVER MOST OF THE REGION, WITH LKLY POPS ACROSS OSWEGO
COUNTY AND ONLY CHC POPS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
THE ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER STILL LOOKS GOOD WITH ACCUMS OF
ARND 2 TO 4 INCHES TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER, 1-2 FROM
SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FINGER LKS, AN
INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE COUNTIES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO, AND LESS THAN AN INCH OVER OSWEGO COUNTY.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
THE NAM AND GFS ARE PRETTY MUCH IN LINE DURING THIS PERIOD SHOWING
CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING OF THE COASTAL LOW MOVING WELL
OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC FROM THE MARYLAND COAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THE TREND OF SNOW TAPERING OFF ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY AND
ENDING UP WITH SNOW TOTALS IN THE ADVISORY RANGE FOR THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH. THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF
MEASURABLE SNOW STILL IN QUESTION SO THE NORTH COUNTRY MAY NOT GET
ANY. WE HAVE LOWERED THE PROBABILITIES SLIGHTLY THERE...NO MORE THAN
CHANCE CATEGORY.
A CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT EVEN WITH THE LOW SO FAR OFF THE COAST. WE WILL
STICK WITH THE TREND OF SNOW TAPERING OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
BE LEFT WITH JUST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL AS WE GET A FRESH SUPPLY OF
AIR FROM THE JAMES BAY AND QUEBEC AREAS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY A BROAD
NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES ALOFT NOT TERRIBLY COLD FOR A NORTHWEST
FLOW...BUT COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP US IN THE 20S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MARGINAL 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL...THOUGH ITS CLOSE ENOUGH THAT ITS HARD TO RULE OUT
ACTIVITY. WHILE TOO FAR OUT TO TIME...EXPECT PERIODIC SHORTWAVES OR
WIND SHIFTS WILL BRING SOME ACTIVITY TO THE FINGER LAKES AND OSWEGO
REGIONS...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...THE MAIN EFFECT OF THE LAKES WILL LIKELY BE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER...WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN EXPECTED IN THE FLOW.
A GENERALLY COLD WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK. WHILE TIMING DIFFERS...THE EUROPEAN/GFS BOTH SHOW A CLIPPER
SYSTEM...WHICH SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
AGAIN...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH A
GENERALLY QUIET BUT CHILLY PATTERN EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
WESTERN NEW YORK.
AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LOW LVL MOISTURE AGAIN WILL BE TRAPPED BELOW A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
TODAY MAINLY FROM OSWEGO COUNTY WESTWARD ACROSS THE CWA PRODUCING
MVFR CIGS AND EVEN SOME IFR/LIFR CIGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE
NORTH COUNTRY SHLD BE VFR WITH MVFR CIGS PREDOMINATING AFTER 18Z AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SNOW AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED
TO SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS AFTERNOON WITH IFR
CONDITIONS. OCNL MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW/FOG SHLD REACH THE
KBUF-KIAG LTR THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT, THE SHIELD OF SNOW WITH IFR CONDITIONS SHLD REACH THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER THIS EVENING REACHING THE KROC REGION LATER
TONIGHT. FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER CONDITIONS SHLD RANGE FROM IFR TO
LIFR WITH SNOW AND FOG. OCNL LIGHT SNOW SHLD REACH THE NORTH COUNTRY
ARND KART TWD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH OCNL MVFR VSBYS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...IFR IN SNOW.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
MARINE
NO MARINE HEADLINES AT THIS TIME AS WEAK RIDGING AND WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAVE CAUSED WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TO
LESSEN.
THE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN UP TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A MAJOR LOW
DEEPENS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY
OVERNIGHT WITH WAVES INCREASING OVER THE WEST HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO
THEN A BACKING TO NORTH AND NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR AS THE LOW
WITHDRAWS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR LATER
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR PARTS OF THE LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ019>021.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SAGE
NEAR TERM...JJP/JJR
SHORT TERM...SAGE
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...JJP/SAGE/TJP
MARINE...SAGE
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