600  
FXUS61 KBUF 020350  
AFDBUF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY  
1150 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY  
AND MILD WEATHER FOR THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED  
TO CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A  
GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES  
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
STRATUS/FOG WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...  
CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT FLOW WIN  
PLACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDING EAST  
ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR DENSE FOG WILL BE IN THE  
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.  
 
ON THURSDAY...THE MAIN AXIS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE  
A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION...WITH A RETURN FLOW OF  
SOUTHERLY WINDS HELPING TO BOOST TEMPS TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S  
ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY DRIER SURFACE  
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A BUILDUP OF STRATOCU AND CUMULUS  
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS AND AWAY FROM THE  
STABILIZING EFFECT OF THE LAKES.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE UNDERWAY MOVING INTO THE COMING  
WEEKEND AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GREAT  
LAKES...USHERING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER  
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. THIS BREAKDOWN WILL NOT  
OCCUR UNTIL LATER ON FRIDAY HOWEVER. IN THE MEANTIME...THE FORECAST  
AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY AS A NARROW  
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...A REFLECTION OF THE DEEP TROUGH JUST  
UPSTREAM...SLIDES OVERHEAD. WITH INCREASING CLOUD  
COVER...DOWNSLOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ASSOCIATED WARM AIR  
ADVECTION...PARTICULARLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...TEMPERATURES  
WILL BE QUITE MILD THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S  
WITH AREAS ALONG LAKE ERIE AND IN THE BUFFALO METRO REMAINING IN THE  
LOWER 60S.  
 
WARM ADVECTION AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY  
WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 20-30MPH POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING  
COLD FRONT. DOWNSLOPING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A  
DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TO BREAK OUT AND AID IN PUSHING  
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS WITH LOW TO  
MID 70S FARTHER INLAND.  
 
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK FRIDAY NIGHT AS A  
POWERFUL 100+KT JET STREAK DIVING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS  
STRENGTHENS AND DIGS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN  
GREAT LAKES...IN TURN PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE LOWER  
GREAT LAKES. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT  
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A  
LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...PERSISTENT DOWNSLOPING AHEAD  
OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP THIS POTENTIAL LIMITED TO ONLY A CHANCE  
INITIALLY. THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR RAIN WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND  
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN NEW YORK LATER FRIDAY  
NIGHT AND CROSSES CENTRAL NEW YORK ON SATURDAY. HERE LOW LEVEL  
CONVERGENCE/UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND DPVA ALOFT WILL BE  
MAXIMIZED...LEADING TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AVERAGING A QUARTER TO A  
HALF INCH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  
 
RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS POST-FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE  
TAKES OVER AND DRIES THINGS OUT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AS WE MOVE  
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS DRYING  
TREND WILL WORK ITS WAY EAST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE  
NORTH COUNTRY LIKELY DRYING OUT BY SATURDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES  
WILL ALSO DROP SUBSTANTIALLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE UPPER  
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD ADVECTION TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE  
REGION WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 50S ON  
SATURDAY.  
 
AS WE MOVE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WRAPAROUND MOISTURE COINCIDENT WITH  
INCREASINGLY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE  
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF  
LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE  
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT MAY BE STUNTED BY THE PRESENCE OF A DECENT  
AMOUNT OF VERTICAL SHEAR SATURDAY EVENING...WINDS BECOME BETTER  
ALIGNED OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE  
UPPER TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW  
BECOMES BETTER ALIGNED IN A WESTERLY DIRECTION. WITH 850MB TEMPS  
FALLING TO AROUND 0C AND LAKE ERIE A COMPARATIVELY BALMY  
+19C...LAKE-INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL WITH CAPES  
POTENTIALLY CRACKING 1500J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS APPROACHING  
25KFT. GIVEN THIS...WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE FOR THUNDER. IN  
ADDITION...GIVEN HOW COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE...GRAUPEL WILL  
BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AS WELL AS WATERSPOUTS ON THE LAKES.  
THIS SCENARIO WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO EVOLVE ON LAKE ONTARIO  
OWING TO IT'S CLOSER POSITION TO THE EXITING SHORTWAVE AND  
ASSOCIATED SHEAR. THE COLD AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION WILL DROP  
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S NEAR THE LAKES WITH UPPER 30S POSSIBLE  
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS INLAND FROM THE LAKES.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF DURING THE MORNING ON  
SUNDAY AS DIURNAL EFFECTS DISRUPT ANY LINGERING BANDS...HOWEVER A  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE  
TRACKS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. IN FACT THE WEATHER THROUGH THE  
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY CLOUDY WITH  
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AS A PARADE OF SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND THE BASE  
OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND  
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH  
HIGHS IN THE 50S SUNDAY AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SUNDAY NIGHT.  
THERE WILL BE SOME MODERATION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS PACIFIC AIR  
INVADES THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT FLOW WILL PROMOTE STRATUS/FOG  
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN  
COVERAGE AND TIMING IS LOW. BEST CHANCES FOR DENSE FOG WILL BE IN  
THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. ANY STRATUS/FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL  
ERODE BY MID DAY THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING  
AREAWIDE.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
FRIDAY...VFR LOWERING TO MVFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.  
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WILL YIELD LOWERING  
WINDS AND WAVES THROUGH THURSDAY.  
 
LATE IN THE WEEK...A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT  
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY...WHILE SWINGING A STRONG  
TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE  
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF STRONGER  
WINDS...WITH ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES BECOMING POSSIBLE.  
 

 
   
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NY...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...JM/TMA  
NEAR TERM...WCH  
SHORT TERM...WOOD  
LONG TERM...WOOD  
AVIATION...TMA/WCH  
MARINE...JM/WCH  
 
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