739  
FXUS61 KBUF 202354  
AFDBUF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY  
754 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS  
WEEKEND...USHERING IN A WELCOME PERIOD OF FAIR DRY WEATHER AND DAY  
TO DAY WARMING THAT WILL LAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHEN  
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY CLIMB BACK TO MUCH MORE TYPICAL SPRINGTIME  
LEVELS.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS A STORM SYSTEM EXITS TO ATLANTIC CANADA TONIGHT AN AREA OF  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES, WILL  
BUILD TOWARDS OUR REGION WITH DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT  
WINDS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING  
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER INTERIOR PORTIONS  
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY...TO AROUND 30 RIGHT ALONG  
THE LAKESHORES.  
 
ON SATURDAY THE CORE OF THE LARGE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY  
ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE AND PLENTIFUL DRY AIR  
PROMOTING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH A PASSING  
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MERELY BRINGING A PERIOD OF CIRRUS-LEVEL  
CLOUDINESS TO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. MEANWHILE THE  
STRONG APRIL SUN WILL HELP TO MODIFY OUR RESIDENT AIRMASS...THEREBY  
ALLOWING DAYTIME HIGHS TO RECOVER INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS  
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN AREAS OF LAKE INFLUENCES TO THE LOWER 50S  
ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL MERELY BE THE BEGINNING OF A STEADY DAY TO DAY  
WARMING TREND THAT WILL LAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL HELP  
TO FINALLY BRING TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO MUCH MORE TYPICAL SPRINGTIME  
LEVELS...THE DETAILS OF WHICH ARE DISCUSSED FURTHER IN THE SHORT TERM  
SECTION BELOW.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
THE TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH  
PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  
CLEAR NIGHT SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RADIATE  
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE  
U20S/L30S BOTH NIGHTS. A LIGHT NORTHERLY COMPONENT WILL KEEP  
TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL SUNDAY HOWEVER FULL  
SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE THE UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES, IN THE MID  
TO UPPER 50S.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST AND OVER NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. A LIGHT  
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS MONDAY AND THE COMBINATION OF ENHANCED  
SUBSIDENCE, SUNSHINE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES  
TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S INLAND. A LAKE BREEZE WILL LIKELY WIN OUT  
UNDER LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AREAS ALONG THE LAKE SHORES WILL STAY  
IN THE 50S.  
 
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE TN VALLEY INTO THE LOWER  
OHIO VALLEY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND  
COAST MONDAY NIGHT. MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND A LIGHT  
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ELEVATED OVERNIGHT, IN THE  
U30S/L40S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY  
AS THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH A  
SOUTHERLY FLOW. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS THE NEXT AREA  
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES WNY.  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN  
AS THE NEXT SYNOPTIC SYSTEM APPROACHES. DISCREPANCY STILL EXISTS  
BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. THE GFS MAINTAINS A SHOWERY PATTERN  
FROM WED MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY EVENING WITH A GREAT LAKES  
SYSTEM SHIFTING EAST INTO THE AREA AS A SECOND WEAKER SYSTEM TREKS  
NORTH ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE GFS IS SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF  
TO MOVE THESE SYSTEMS OUT OF THE AREA AND MAINTAINS THE SHOWERS FOR  
THIS ENTIRE TIME PERIOD. THE ECMWF TAKES A MORE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC  
SYSTEM UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE  
GREAT LAKES THAT PUSHES THE SURFACE FEATURE QUICKER OUT OF THE AREA.  
WITH THIS SCENARIO THE ECMWF GIVE THE BUF CWA DRY WEATHER FROM  
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM  
DEVELOPS OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SHIFTS NORTHEAST FOR  
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN SOME WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM.  
HIGHS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S FOR MOST  
AREAS. 850MB TEMPS ARE STILL ABOVE 0C THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING  
ALTHOUGH THE GFS BRINGS MUCH COOLER TEMPS STARTING LATE FRIDAY THAN  
THE ECMWF DOES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
FOR THE 00Z TAFS VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE FOUND, AND THESE  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH  
LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NEARS THE REGION.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.  
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEARING DOWN UPON THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION,  
AND SURFACE LOW NOW WELL TO OUR EAST, WINDS AND WAVES HAVE  
DIMINISHED SUCH THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR REMAINING PARTS OF  
LAKE ONTARIO HAS BEEN DROPPED.  
 
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TRANQUIL CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND  
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE FIRST BUILDS DIRECTLY ACROSS  
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THEN SLOWLY DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST.  
 

 
   
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NY...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...JJR/THOMAS  
NEAR TERM...JJR/THOMAS  
SHORT TERM...HSK  
LONG TERM...SW  
AVIATION...THOMAS  
MARINE...JJR/THOMAS  
 
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