908  
FXUS61 KBUF 252143  
AFDBUF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY  
543 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END THIS EVENING AS A  
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER  
PERIOD OF FAIR AND SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID WEATHER THAT WILL PERSIST  
THROUGH THE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER, MUCH WEAKER COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH  
OUT OF CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE  
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, HOWEVER NOTHING THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUT  
A DENT IN THE CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
THE BULK OF THE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST  
NY AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS  
STILL POISED JUST UPSTREAM HOWEVER, AND THE AIRMASS HAS QUICKLY  
RECOVERED BEHIND THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON RAIN WITH SURFACE  
TEMPERATURES JUMPING INTO THE LOWER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER  
70S. THIS IS YIELDING MODERATE INSTABILITY, ALLOWING THE LAKE BREEZE  
BOUNDARIES TO BECOME ACTIVE. STORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN A  
NARROW CORRIDOR FROM ST. CATHERINE'S EASTWARD ACROSS THE NIAGARA  
FRONTIER IN RESPONSE TO INSTABILITY AND STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE  
DRIVEN BY THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE AND NORTHWEST FLOW WITH  
THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS CONVECTION WILL HOLD TOGETHER  
FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO BEFORE PUSHING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE WESTERN  
FINGER LAKES AND FALLING APART WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.  
 
ELSEWHERE THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY MAINLY DRY THROUGH THIS  
EVENING WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL FORCING TO SUPPORT  
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE SAINT  
LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE SCATTERED STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITH THE COLD  
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THIS EVENING.  
 
WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT, UPSTREAM  
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 60S, AND WITH CLEARING SKIES AND  
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT, WE WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS  
LOWER LYING AREAS, PARTICULARLY THOSE AREAS THAT SEE SUBSTANTIAL  
RAINFALL TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT.  
 
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMPLETE ITS TRANSITION ACROSS THE  
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE REPLACED BY LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER  
LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT  
LAKES. THIS SHOULD YIELD PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA WITH  
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, WITH 70S ALONG THE LAKESHORES. WITH  
SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ADVECTING IN  
BEHIND THE FRONT, IT SHOULD ALSO FEEL NOMINALLY MORE COMFORTABLE  
OUTSIDE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH WEATHER TO CONTEND WITH DURING THIS  
PERIOD...AS A LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE LENGTH OF  
THE CANADIAN BORDER. WHILE TROUGHINESS WILL CHARACTERIZE THIS  
PATTERN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...A LACK OF BAROCLINICITY AND  
LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL MEAN THAT GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CAN BE  
ANTICIPATED. THIS DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY. THE DAY TO DAY DETAILS...  
 
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID WEST WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL  
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR  
SKIES WILL ENCOURAGE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WE HAVE NOT HAD A  
FRESH AIRMASS CHANGE IN A FEW DAYS...SO THE MERCURY IS ONLY FORECAST  
TO DROP INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS WHILE 50S WILL BE  
FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN TIER.  
 
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL THEN SLOWLY  
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WHILE  
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID WEST WILL GRADUALLY LOSE CONTROL OF OUR  
WEATHER IN THE PROCESS. NEVERTHELESS...FAIR WEATHER WILL PERSIST  
ACROSS THE REGION WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS C SUPPORTING  
AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 FOR THE LAKE PLAINS  
AND IN THE VALLEYS.  
 
WE CAN ANTICIPATE A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH  
LITTLE FORCING...WILL ONLY RAISE POPS TO SLGT CHC WHILE INCREASING  
CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER  
THAN THE NIGHT BEFORE...BUT WITH DEW POINTS HOLDING STEADY NEAR  
60...IT SHOULD NOT BE OVERLY UNCOMFORTABLE.  
 
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND WASH OUT OVER PENNSYLVANIA ON  
THURSDAY...WHILE A RIBBON OF MOISTURE IN ITS WAKE WILL SETTLE OVER  
OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BULK...IF NOT ALL...OF THE DAY WILL BE RAIN  
FREE...BUT THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE  
ENOUGH TO WARRANT LOW CHC POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SINCE  
A NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE  
FRONT WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY...WILL ONLY USE A SLGT CHC FOR TSTORMS.  
 
THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES REMAIN OUT OF STEP WITH EACH OTHER AS  
WE PUSH INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THERE IS A 'DISAGREEMENT' AS TO  
WHETHER A WAVE WILL FORM ALONG THE WEST END OF THE AFOREMENTIONED  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL KEEP LOW CHC POPS IN PLACE FOR ALL BUT THE  
NORTH COUNTRY. WHILE THERE WILL BE LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THESE POPS...  
THERE IS MORE CERTAINTY THAT CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...  
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
THIS PERIOD HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE RATHER UNSETTLED...OR AT LEAST  
MORE DISORDERLY THAN WHAT WE HAVE BECOME ACCUSTOMED TO THE PAST  
COUPLE MONTHS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THIS WOULD LEAD TO SOME NEEDED  
RAINFALL FOR THE REGION...BUT THE BAD NEWS IS THAT IT WOULD  
ADVERSELY IMPACT SOME PEOPLES PLANS FOR THE WEEKEND.  
 
TROUGHINESS FOUND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS FORECAST BY SOME OF  
THE ECMWF/GFS BASED ENSEMBLES TO AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT...AND THIS WOULD  
ENCOURAGE WAVINESS ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE MID  
WEST TO EVOLVE INTO AN ACTUAL SFC LOW. WILL USE A COMPROMISE OF THE  
HPC AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WHICH FAVORS SUCH A SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT.  
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER  
GREAT LAKES DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND WHILE GENERATING  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PROCESS. GIVEN  
THE LOW CONFIDENCE OF THIS FORECAST...WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN PLACE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE NEAR  
KIAG AND KBUF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 23Z BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST  
AND FALLING APART BY AROUND 00Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD  
FRONT. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY WITH  
ANY REMAINING AREAS OF MVFR CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR AND SCATTERING OUT  
THIS EVENING.  
 
GUSTY SW WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT WINDS  
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT, AND WITH SKIES CLEARING, WE WILL LIKELY SEE  
THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS LOW LYING AREAS, PARTICULARLY IN  
THE SOUTHERN TIER, THAT WILL POTENTIALLY GENERATE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS  
AFTER 06Z. FOG MAY ALSO AFFECT KIAG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY  
MORNING. FOG SHOULD CLEAR OUT AFTER 12Z, GIVING WAY TO WIDESPREAD VFR  
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.  
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON ON  
LAKE ERIE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, AND SMALL CRAFT  
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY BEHIND THE  
COLD FRONT, HOWEVER WESTERLY FLOW TO AROUND 15 KNOTS ON LAKE ONTARIO  
WILL GENERATE MODERATE CHOP ON THE EASTERN END OF THE LAKE TUESDAY,  
THOUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-ADVISORY. AFTER THAT, HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES, WITH WINDS AND  
WAVES REMAINING GENERALLY TRANQUIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NY...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ010-  
085.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020-  
040-041.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/WOOD  
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/WOOD  
SHORT TERM...RSH  
LONG TERM...RSH  
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/WOOD  
MARINE...WOOD  
 
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