526  
FXUS61 KBUF 311355  
AFDBUF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY  
955 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE  
COMING WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY  
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH SUMMERLIKE  
WARMTH THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
12Z BUF SOUNDING SHOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UP TO ABOUT  
800MB. WILL TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS TO MIX OUT WITH LATE AUGUST  
SUNSHINE. OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...  
 
LOOKING AT THE UPPER LEVELS THE COMBINATION OF THE PRESENCE OF A  
DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND UPPER  
LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IS PRODUCING A  
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE EASTERN  
HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THE LOWER GREAT LAKES' LOCATION ON THE  
NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THIS HIGH IS PLACING THE AREA UNDER THE  
INFLUENCE OF WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT...COMBINED WITH  
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER  
LEVEL RIDGING TO THE WEST SHOULD YIELD A LARGELY SUNNY AND WARM DAY  
ACROSS THE AREA WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. WITH  
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...THIS WILL FEEL QUITE STICKY HOWEVER THE  
AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVENT THE FORMATION OF ANY SHOWERS  
THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS JUST SOME SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CU  
POSSIBLE INLAND FROM THE LAKES.  
 
THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST  
AREA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN ANOTHER CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND  
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. 850MB FLOW SHOULD RELAX AS THE MID-LEVEL  
RIDGE MAKES ITS WAY OVERHEAD AND THIS SHOULD BETTER FACILITATE  
DECOUPLING ACROSS THE AREA. IN TURN THE RESULTANT LIGHT WINDS AND  
CLEAR SKIES...IN ADDITION TO HIGH DEWPOINTS...SHOULD RESULT IN MORE  
PATCHY FOG THAT WE HAVE SEEN THIS MORNING WITH FOG BEING MOST ACUTE  
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AS WELL AS THE BLACK RIVER  
VALLEY IN THE NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REFLECT THE  
HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID  
60S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL  
EXPAND EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION TUESDAY INTO  
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL  
APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AND HUMID AIR FROM THE  
DEEP SOUTH NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE  
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND +20 WHICH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS A  
POSITIVE 1-2SD ANOMALY. THIS WILL ALL TRANSLATE INTO A CONTINUATION  
OF MAINLY DRY...WARM AND HUMID WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK. SURFACE  
HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH 90 POSSIBLE IN THE  
GENESEE VALLEY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT PROVIDING MUCH RELIEF ONLY  
SLIPPING BACK INTO THE 60S.  
 
00Z MODELS SHOW A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH MAY WORK  
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED STORMS INN OUR WARM AND  
HUMID AIRMASS. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY BE ELEVATED AS  
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AND ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ABOVE A 700MB  
INVERSION. HAVE COVERED THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE ENTIRE  
FORECAST AREA AS LAKE INFLUENCES WOULD NOT BE A FACTOR IN ELEVATED  
CONVECTION.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CROSSING  
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSES SOUTH  
ACROSS QUEBEC. ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT  
WITH MODEST /POSSIBLY SURFACE BASED/ INSTABILITY DEVELOPING INLAND  
FROM THE LAKES. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO 30 PERCENT WITH  
LIFT...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE PRESENT. FRIDAY ALSO PRESENTS A  
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION BUT MAINLY SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.  
HAVE KEPT THE HIGHER END OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOCUSED INLAND FROM  
THE LAKES.  
 
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES  
TO SUGGEST THAT THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD  
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE. WITH OUR  
AIRMASS THUS LIKELY TO BE STRONGLY CAPPED...WILL CONTINUE  
TO ADVERTISE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR BOTH NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  
 
OTHERWISE...THE DOMINANT RIDGING WILL LEAD TO MIDSUMMER-LIKE  
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY CONTINUING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH DAYTIME  
HIGHS AGAIN AVERAGING IN THE MID 80S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY  
RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
SKIES ACROSS WRN AND NCTRL NY ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING  
WITH PATCHY FOG. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE ENTIRELY BY  
16-17Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE  
REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WITH CLEAR  
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG  
TO RE-DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AFTER 06-08Z WITH GREATEST COVERAGE AND  
LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER  
AND THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN PATCHY LATE  
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.  
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
SATURDAY...VFR.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE  
UPCOMING WEEK. PREVAILING SW FLOW WILL ENHANCE LAKE BREEZES IN THE  
AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT CHOP ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF THE  
LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN 12 KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH  
THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NY...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...WOOD  
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/WOOD  
SHORT TERM...SMITH  
LONG TERM...JJR/SMITH  
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/WOOD  
MARINE...WOOD  
 
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