012  
FXUS61 KBUF 241148  
AFDBUF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY  
648 AM EST SAT FEB 24 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY  
WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS WHICH MAY CLIP THE  
SOUTHERN TIER. THEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER  
GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND INTO ONTARIO ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL  
RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A PERIOD  
OF HEAVY RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL HELP PUSH A  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.  
MODEL CONSENSUS TRACKS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH,  
WITH SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM POSSIBLY CLIPPING  
THE SOUTHERN TIER TODAY. THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT-OFF ON THE  
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE TODAY  
AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. EXPECT AT LEAST A  
PARTIAL CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF I-90 FROM BUFFALO TO  
SYRACUSE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN  
THE 40S.  
 
THE FORECAST GETS MORE CHALLENGING AFTER THIS WITH NUMEROUS  
POTENTIAL HEADLINES TO CONSIDER. THE CAUSE WILL BE A DYNAMIC STORM  
SYSTEM WHICH IS FORECAST TO TRACK FROM THE MID-WEST TO LAKE SUPERIOR  
WHILE DEEPENING TO AROUND 986MB BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE  
CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING WITH  
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW.  
 
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE  
ACROSS THE REGION FROM SW-NE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ENTER FAR WESTERN  
NEW YORK JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE  
ENTIRE REGION BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. A STRONG 60 KT LLJ WILL MOVE INTO  
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN OCCLUDING COLD FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SHOW A SHARP INVERSION  
DEVELOPING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS JET WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY  
RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM  
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE  
BETWEEN A HALF AN INCH AND AN INCH WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGH LEVELS  
BUT NOT FLOODING. THE ONE POTENTIAL AREA OF CONCERN IS THE ALLEGHENY  
RIVER BASIN WHERE THERE IS A CHANCE GREATER AMOUNTS OF RAIN TO THE  
SOUTH WILL CAUSE FORECAST POINTS TO APPROACH BANKFULL. THE ODDS OF  
THIS HAPPENING ARE LOW, NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS  
TIME.  
 
IN ADDITION, THERE IS A RISK OF STRONG TO DAMAGING DOWNSLOPE WINDS  
LATE TONIGHT. THE STRENGTH AND DIRECTION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IS  
AMPLE TO SUPPORT GUSTS TO 60 MPH HOWEVER IT WILL COINCIDE WITH THE  
RAINFALL WHICH MAY LIMIT THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE  
SURFACE. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY, WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGH WIND WATCH  
FOR DOWNSLOPE REGIONS NORTH OF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND TUG HILL AND  
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.  
 
DOWNSLOPING WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER  
40S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS TONIGHT, AND ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN  
NEW YORK THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY WITH A WARM FRONT. THE NOTABLE  
EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND EASTERN  
PORTIONS OF LEWIS COUNTY WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH SLOWER  
TO WARM TONIGHT. IN THESE LOCATIONS, SOME SPOTS WILL BE BELOW  
FREEZING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION WITH RAPID MID-LEVEL  
WARMING SHOWING A CLASSIC FREEZING RAIN FORECAST SOUNDING. ANY  
FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED BUT STILL COULD RESULT IN UP  
TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICING IN SPOTS DUE TO THE MODERATE  
TO HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. ANY ICING SOUTHWEST OF A WATERTOWN TO  
LOWVILLE LINE WILL BE MINIMAL DUE TO WARMING FROM DOWNSLOPING. A  
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR JEFFERSON AND LEWIS  
COUNTIES.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
 
   
..HIGH WIND WATCH FOR WINDS GUSTING POTENTIALLY TO 60 MPH SUNDAY
 
 
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MICHIGAN UP SUNDAY MORNING  
WILL DEEPEN WHILE TRACKING NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES  
BAY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT  
EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY THROUGH THE DAY. WIDESPREAD  
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAINFALL AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT  
EAST EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. AN  
ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO TENTHS IN WNY AND QUARTER TO HALF INCH EAST OF  
LAKE ONTARIO WILL ADD TO THE ONE TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF  
RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE MANAGEABLE IN MOST AREAS WITH  
THE HIGHEST THREAT OF POTENTIAL RIVER FLOODING BEING IN THE ALLEGANY  
BASIN. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING FREEZING RAIN ON THE TUG HILL  
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE SLOW TO RISE  
ABOVE FREEZING. EXPECT DRY AND SUNNY BUT GUSTY CONDITONS FOLLOWING  
THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD PEAK IN THE 50S TO  
ABOUT 60 AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE FALLING LATE.  
 
HIGH WINDS...THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW, WITHIN 500 MI  
NORTHWEST OF BUFFALO AND DEEPENING TREND IS FAVORABLE FOR A WIND  
EVENT SUNDAY. THE TRACK IS A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN THE TRACK OF THE  
COMPOSITE MEAN IDENTIFIED IN A RECENT LOCAL HIGH WIND STUDY WHILE  
THE FORECASTED ~986MB LOW AT 15Z SUN IS CLOSE TO THE MEAN OF A STUDY  
DEFINED LIMITED IMPACT HIGH WIND EVENT. THE ACCOMPANYING ~60KT 850MB  
JET IS ALSO MORE FAVORABLE FOR A LIMITED IMPACT TYPE HIGH WIND  
EVENT. SUBSIDENCE, COLD ADVECTION AND RISING PRESSURE TENDENCIES  
SUPPORT MIXING DOWN OF THE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT ALONG OUR TYPICAL  
CORRIDOR EAST OF LAKE ERIE STRETCHING FROM CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY ACROSS  
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO MONROE COUNTY. THIS IS WHERE A HIGH WIND  
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT 14Z-22Z SUNDAY. A DEEPER LOW AND STRONGER  
850MB JET WOULD SUPPORT A MORE WIDESPREAD IMPACT BUT GUIDANCE DOES  
NOT SUGGEST THIS WILL OCCUR. WITH STILL MORE THAN 24 HOURS UNTIL  
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RAMP UP, WE HAVE OPTED TO  
CONTINUE THE WATCH WHILE WE SEE IF THE 12Z GUIDANCE SHOWS A  
STRONGER/WEAKER TREND. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ANOTHER HIGH WIND WATCH  
WHICH RUNS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY REMAINS FOR JEFFERSON AND LEWIS  
COUNTIES DUE TO POTENTIALLY STRONG GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS.  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MID-  
LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLIDE EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO EASTERN  
NORTH CAROLINA WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT  
LAKES. THIS WILL SUPPORT FAIR DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES  
REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS MONDAY ARE  
EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 40S THEN CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO  
LOW 50S TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
WHERE'S ALL THE COLD AIR??  
 
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE  
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A LOW AMPLITUDE SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW  
OVER THE COUNTRY WILL INCLUDE A PRONOUNCED SUB TROPICAL JET THAT  
WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL HELP TO  
ESTABLISH A FEED OF VERY MILD AIR OUT OF THE GOMEX THAT WILL HOLD  
OUR TEMPERATURES SOME 15 DEG ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS FOR WEDNESDAY AND  
THURSDAY BUT LIKELY NOT WITHOUT SOME RAINFALL. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT  
WEEKEND...THE MERCURY WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE TO NEAR NORMAL.  
 
FOR THOSE WONDERING ABOUT TRUE COLD AIR...AN ANALYSIS OF H85 TEMPS  
FRIDAY EVENING SHOWED A POOL OF SUB ARCTIC AIR (<-20C) NEAR AND EAST  
OF HUDSON BAY...BUT THIS AIRMASS WILL RETREAT POLEWARD DURING THE  
COMING DAYS. BY THE TIME THIS FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS (WEDNESDAY)...YOU  
WILL HAVE TO TRAVEL NORTH OF 65N...AND MORE SPECIFICALLY TO THE  
YUKON...TO FIND ANY ARCTIC AIR. GIVEN THE SPLIT FLOW OVER THE LOWER  
48...THERE WILL NO CHANCE OF TAPPING THIS MARGINALLY COLD AIRMASS.  
THE COLDEST AIRMASS IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE THOUGH WILL REMAIN  
PARKED ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE POLE...IN SIBERIA.  
 
A BULGING RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WILL ALLOW H85  
TEMPS TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WHILE MAINTAINING ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO  
KEEP FAIR WEATHER IN PLACE. THE WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL ENCOURAGE MAX  
TEMPERATURES TO REACH WELL INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE WESTERN  
COUNTIES...WITH READINGS GENERALLY HOLDING IN THE 40S ACROSS THE  
NORTH COUNTRY.  
 
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION, GLOBAL MODELS SHIFT A WARM FRONT OVER OR  
JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SINCE THERE ARE  
LIKELY SOME TIMING ISSUES YET TO BE RESOLVED WE HAVE KEPT CHANCE  
POPS ON WEDNESDAY INCREASING TO LIKELY POPS THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT  
FOLLOWED BY CHANCE POPS FRIDAY. P-TYPE SHOULD LARGELY BE PLAIN RAIN  
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BUT SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN DURING THE NIGHT  
PERIODS WHERE OVERNIGHT LOWS DIP TOWARD OR BELOW FREEZING.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH  
DAYBREAK WITH A GENERAL IMPROVING TREND IN CONDITIONS. AREAS OF IFR  
OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL LINGER ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST OF  
LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH 14Z WITH MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. AFTER  
THIS EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN  
IN THE NORTHERLY COMPONENT FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME PATCHY MVFR  
CIGS MAY LINGER SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR  
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.  
 
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING, FOLLOWED BY ACTIVE  
WEATHER STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL INCLUDE A PERIOD OF  
HEAVY RAIN, AND POSSIBLY EVEN A THUNDERSTORM. THERE ALSO MAY BE  
LLWS LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE REGION.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SUNDAY...RAIN ENDING WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. LLWS EARLY. WINDY.  
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT  
LAKES TODAY, BEFORE A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS  
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL  
BRING AT LEAST A ROUND OF HIGH END ADVISORY-WORTHY CONDITIONS, WITH  
GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE.  
 
AFTER THIS, A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN NEAR-  
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT  
INTO MONDAY. THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT  
LAKES LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR  
NYZ007-008.  
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR  
NYZ007-008.  
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON  
FOR NYZ001>003-010>012-085.  
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR  
NYZ019.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL  
NEAR TERM...APFFEL  
SHORT TERM...SMITH  
LONG TERM...RSH/SMITH  
AVIATION...APFFEL  
MARINE...APFFEL  
 
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