703  
FXUS61 KBUF 010232  
AFDBUF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY  
1032 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
DECAYING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL REDEVELOP OFF  
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...THEN WILL LIFT  
NORTHWARD OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF  
THE WEEKEND. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT OCCASIONAL  
LIGHT RAIN TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK THROUGH  
SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SATURDAY AFTERNOON  
AND NIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CHILLY TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AS  
THE LOW BRIEFLY PULLS MUCH COLDER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH A  
WARMING TREND THEN FOLLOWING EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 0230Z...REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF THE  
ORIGINAL PRIMARY LOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...WITH A  
SECONDARY SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST IN  
RESPONSE TO DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.  
MEANWHILE...REGIONAL RADARS STILL SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATIFORM  
LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE ORIGINAL PRIMARY LOW EXTENDING  
ACROSS AREAS FROM THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES WESTWARD...WITH SOME  
DECENT LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF THIS RAIN ALSO NOTED OVER WESTERN LAKE  
ONTARIO GIVEN THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THAT LAKE.  
MEANWHILE...AREAS FURTHER TO THE EAST REMAIN LARGELY DRY AS OF  
THIS WRITING.  
 
THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...EXPECT THE REMAINS OF THE  
ORIGINAL PRIMARY LOW TO CONTINUE TO DECAY AS ITS ENERGY TRANSFERS TO  
THE SECONDARY COASTAL SYSTEM. THIS STATED...WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER  
AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOULD STILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS  
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF SATURDAY WITH  
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND A LINGERING CYCLONIC/INCREASINGLY UPSLOPE  
FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION. FURTHER TO THE EAST...  
EXPECT JUST A CHANCE OF SOME SPOTTIER LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH  
COUNTRY THROUGH SATURDAY.  
 
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...DEVELOPING COLD AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE  
BACKSIDE OF THE DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM WILL SEND A PROGRESSIVELY  
COLDER AIRMASS SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.  
THIS WILL RESULT IN READINGS FALLING TO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S  
TONIGHT...WITH ONLY VERY LIMITED RECOVERY THEN EXPECTED ON SATURDAY  
WHEN ALSO TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND  
PRECIPITATION.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
BY SATURDAY EVENING THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH OF -7C TO -8C WILL BE  
CROSSING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BASIN AND NEW YORK STATE. WHILE  
THIS IS SUFFICIENTLY COLD TO PRODUCE A LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE...THE  
MID AND UPPER LEVELS ARE DRYING SO LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION WILL BE  
LIMITED. A NORTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WIND WILL PROVIDE OROGRAPHIC  
LIFT DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...SO WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY  
POPS EARLY IN THE EVENING...DWINDLING TO CHANCE AND LOW CHANCE POPS  
LATER IN THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS DRYING AND WARMING ALOFT LOWER  
THE INFLUENCE OF THE LAKE EFFECT. LOW TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE  
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ALONG AND WEST OF THE GENESEE  
VALLEY...THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES TO  
THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE AND THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE EASTERN  
LAKE ONTARIO COUNTIES.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...BRINGING FAIR  
WEATHER AND GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES. CLOUDS SHOULD LAST MUCH OF THE  
DAY ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS WITH COOL AIR ALOFT RESULTING IN LAKE  
ENHANCED STRATUS. SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON  
NEAR THE LAKES AND IN WESTERN SECTIONS. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD  
ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL CHILLY...ONLY BE  
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE  
MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S  
ALONG THE GENESEE VALLEY...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE LAKE ERIE  
SHORE AND THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES REGION.  
 
THE AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ON THE FORECAST  
AREA ON MONDAY...MOVING EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY  
WINDS ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING  
WARMING TO THE AREA WITH HIGH TEMPS 40S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND THE  
LOW 50S ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD STAY  
ABOVE FREEZING WITH MOST LOCATIONS FALLING TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER  
30S INLAND AND THE LOWER TO MID 40S ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKES ERIE  
AND ONTARIO.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY  
WEDNESDAY WITH A SURFACE AND UPPER LOW MOVING FROM THE UPPER PLAINS  
AND PRAIRIE PROVINCES TO SOUTHWESTERN HUDSON BAY...AN OCCLUSION  
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW TO A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD  
NEW YORK STATE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING A SHEARING  
OF THE FRONT DURING TUESDAY NIGHT...AND ALTHOUGH POPS ARE IN THE  
LIKELY RANGE...QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW...ONLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS  
OF AN INCH.  
 
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW GREATEST DIFFERENCES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF  
THE WEEK. BY 00Z FRIDAY...GFS DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS  
EASTERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN QUEBEC TO THE NORTHERN GREAT  
LAKES...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.  
FOR THE SAME TIMEFRAME...ECMWF HAS DEVELOPED A NEGATIVELY TILTED  
UPPER TROUGH FROM JUST EAST OF JAME BAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST  
AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BOTH  
MODEL SOLUTIONS PROVIDE CHANCE POPS WED THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH THE  
HIGHER POPS DURING THE DAY THU. GFS BRINGS IN A SECONDARY COLD FRONT  
THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHEREAS ECMWF BRINGS THE COLDER AIR IN ACROSS  
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. WILL SPLIT  
THE DIFFERENCE AND HAVE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE END OF THE  
WEEK WITH THE CHANCE OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW ON THURSDAY NIGHT.  
 
AFTER A WARMING TREND DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THE SECOND  
HALF WILL EXPERIENCE A DOWNWARD TREND...FROM HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID  
50S ON WEDNESDAY TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY  
REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH  
A MOIST CYCLONIC AND INCREASINGLY UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW LINGERING  
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL  
MAINTAIN THE CURRENT WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT  
RAIN ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THOUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF  
SATURDAY...WHILE THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS CLOUDY WITH MUCH  
SPOTTIER LIGHT RAIN.  
 
IN TERMS OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS...EXPECT GENERAL MVFR TO LOW-END VFR  
CEILINGS TO DETERIORATE TO IFR/MVFR OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW  
BACKS TO NORTHWESTERLY/NORTHERLY AND BECOMES PROGRESSIVELY MORE  
UPSLOPE IN NATURE...WITH GENERAL IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS /MAINLY DUE TO  
CEILINGS/ THEN LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY. WHILE THE BEST OVERALL  
CHANCES FOR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE  
SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...CANNOT TOTALLY RULE THESE OUT AT  
KBUF/KIAG/KROC EITHER DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSLOPE FLOW.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR/VFR WITH DIMINISHING LEFTOVER RAIN AND WET  
SNOW SHOWERS.  
SUNDAY...MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR WITH SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND  
FLURRIES.  
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.  
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE THIS  
WEEKEND...BRINGING A PERIOD OF BRISK NORTHEASTERLY AND THEN  
NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE LOWER LAKES REGION THAT WILL RESULT IN  
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS. ON LAKE ONTARIO...THE  
STRONGER WINDS ARE DEVELOPING NOW AND WILL LAST THROUGH SUNDAY...  
WHILE ON LAKE ERIE THE STRONGER WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND  
LAST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. DUE TO ALL THIS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES  
ARE IN EFFECT AS OUTLINED BELOW.  
 

 
   
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NY...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY  
FOR LEZ040-041.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ030.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ043-044.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ042.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR  
LOZ045.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/JJR  
NEAR TERM...JJR  
SHORT TERM...WCH  
LONG TERM...WCH  
AVIATION...CHURCH/JJR  
MARINE...JJR  
 
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