791  
FXUS61 KBUF 190533  
AFDBUF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY  
133 AM EDT THU OCT 19 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED  
THERE THROUGH THE WEEK, BRINGING DRY WEATHER, PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND  
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO OUR REGION.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
 
 
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA  
EARLY THIS MORNING.  
 
CLEAR, MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.  
THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT FLOW AND DRY BOUNDARY  
LAYER TO GREATLY LIMIT OR PREVENT VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE  
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S ON THE  
LAKE PLAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND  
LEWIS COUNTY.  
 
THURSDAY, THE STRENGTH OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL STEER THE NEXT  
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WELL NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NORTHERN  
ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY. THE WEAKENING COLD FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING  
SOUTHWARD FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL SWEEP ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH  
CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE LITTLE FANFARE  
WITH THIS THROUGH AS THE AIRMASS IS SO DRY AND SURFACE RIDGE STILL  
REMAINS IN PLACE. LOOKS LIKE AT BEST WE'LL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF  
ENHANCED CLOUD COVER WITH THE TROUGH, BUT THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT IT.  
HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL, WITH UPPER 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS  
AND AROUND 70 FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY INTO CENTRAL NY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND CORRESPONDING AREA OF SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OVER (AND THEN EAST) OF THE GREAT LAKES  
REGION AND NORTHEAST US THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE  
RESULT FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY WILL BE CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH  
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WITH THE HIGH DIRECTLY OVERHEAD SATURDAY  
NIGHT, SOME VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN DEEP RIVER VALLEYS  
DESPITE THE OVERALL DRY AIRMASS. BUT, WITH THE GROWING SEASON  
ESSENTIALLY OVER, THERE WILL BE LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE FROM  
TRANSPIRATION. SO, THE TYPICAL VALLEY FOG SEASON IS NEARING ITS END.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
A PROGRESSIVE AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WILL  
BRING CHANGEABLE WEATHER FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY A  
SEASONABLY STRONG 500MB RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST WITH SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BRING ANOTHER GORGEOUS DAY  
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.  
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE  
NORMAL WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.  
 
A CHANGE TO COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN ARRIVES WITH THE  
START OF NEXT WEEK. A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD  
FRONT ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES  
SUNDAY NIGHT. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF WHEN THE FRONT REACHES  
WESTERN NY SHOW UP BY MONDAY WITH THE 12Z GFS SHIFTING THE FRONT  
OVER OUR REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY WHILE THE EC IS ABOUT 12 HOURS  
SLOWER HOLDING IT OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE TAKEN DOWN POPS A BIT  
TO LOW CHANCE RANGE ON MONDAY FAVORING THE EC TIMING THEN BRINGING  
LIKELY POPS INTO WNY FOR MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON  
THE MILD SIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION NOT  
ARRIVING UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK.  
 
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD FEATURE UNSETTLED CONDITONS AS THE  
FRONTAL ZONE STALLS ACROSS OUR REGION AND ONE OR MORE WAVES OF LOW  
PRESSURE SHIFT NORTH ALONG THE FRONT. HAVE INCLUDED LIKELY POPS FOR  
TUESDAY AS BOTH GFS/EC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A SURFACE LOW  
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS NEW YORK. THE GFS SHOWS A POTENTIALLY MOISTURE  
RICH AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO PLACE ALONG THE FRONT WITH A CONNECTION  
TO THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD PUSH PWATS ABOVE AN INCH OR MORE. WPC  
DAY 6-7 QPF SHOWS A SWATH OF 1.25-2.5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER WESTERN  
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.  
 
CHANCE POPS ARE FEATURED FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND  
COLD ADVECTION SUPPORT POTENTIAL SHOWERY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL  
RUN NEAR NORMAL (MID-UPPER 50S) TUESDAY THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR  
WEDNESDAY AS 850MB TEMPS DIP TO OR BELOW ZERO 0 WHICH WOULD SUPPORT  
TEMPS LIKELY STRUGGLING TO BREAK ABOVE 50 IN MANY LOCATIONS.  
 
NO SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH DAY 7/WEDNESDAY BUT TEMPS MAY COOL  
ENOUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR POTENTIAL SOME WET SNOW TO MIX IN IN THE  
HIGHER TERRAIN. STAY TUNED.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE 06Z TAF CYCLE AS HIGH  
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES, WITH A  
RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THERE  
WILL BE ENOUGH GRADIENT WIND OVERNIGHT TO PREVENT RIVER VALLEY  
FOG ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. ON A WEAKENING COLD FRONT  
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS  
FRONT WILL REMAIN DRY, WITH A FEW HOURS OF CLOUDS WITH BASES  
AROUND 5K FEET. IT WILL BECOME QUITE BREEZY TODAY, WITH GUSTS  
OF AROUND 20 KNOTS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, AND AROUND 30 KNOTS  
NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR EXCEPT FOR LOCAL IFR IN RIVER VALLEY FOG  
EACH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.  
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE  
EASTERN GREAT LAKES INCREASES. THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF SMALL  
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES ERIE AND  
ONTARIO ON A SOUTHWEST WIND FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SMALL  
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP FOR THE BUFFALO HARBOR AND  
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY SPREAD TO MOST OF  
LAKE ONTARIO ON A WESTERLY WIND AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NY...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY  
FOR LEZ040-041.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT  
THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM  
EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ045.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT  
FRIDAY FOR LOZ044.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM  
EDT THIS EVENING FOR SLZ022-024.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...THOMAS/TMA  
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA  
SHORT TERM...ZAFF  
LONG TERM...SMITH  
AVIATION...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK  
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/TMA  
 
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