465  
FXUS61 KBUF 271510  
AFDBUF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY  
1110 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL COMBINE WITH  
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY TO KEEP A  
FEED OF WARM HUMID AIR IN PLACE THROUGH THE BULK OF THE LONG HOLIDAY  
WEEKEND. THE MID SUMMER WARMTH WILL FUEL SOME WIDELY SEPARATED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AWAY FROM THE LAKES TODAY...THEN THIS  
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE THIS MORNING AS WE  
ARE ON OUR WAY TO ANOTHER SUMMER DAY ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. THIS  
IS DUE TO WARM ADVECTION THANKS TO STRONG RIDGING CENTERED OFF THE  
SOUTHEAST COAST. 850MB TEMPS OF 17C PER 12Z BUF RAOB WILL ENCOURAGE  
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S F. WHILE LOCAL  
LAKE BREEZES WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S WITHIN A MILE OF SO OF THE  
LAKES (INCLUDING DOWNTOWN BUFFALO)...THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM  
WILL INCLUDE MAX TEMPS WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF 90 IN THE NORMALLY  
WARMER GENESEE VALLEY AND SOME OF THE SRN TIER VALLEYS. THE  
POTENTIAL FOR MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE  
IN WHETHER THESE LATTER AREAS CAN REACH CLOSE TO 90.  
 
SPEAKING OF CONVECTION...THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE RISK FOR  
WIDELY SEPARATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MIDDAY AND  
AFTERNOON. WHILE AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IS ALREADY IN PLACE WITH  
DAYBREAK MLCAPES IN THE VCNTY OF 100-200 J/KG...PLENTY OF DIURNAL  
HEATING WILL SEND THESE VALUES ROCKETING TO 1500-2000 J/KG BY EARLY  
AFTERNOON. WORKING AGAINST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE A  
BURGEONING H5 RIDGE OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAVE MESOSCALE  
PROCESSES IN CHARGE OF TRIGGERING ANY STORMS...SO LIKE YESTERDAY...  
YESTERDAY (THURS)...ANY CONVECTION WILL BE FOUND WELL INLAND FROM  
THE LAKES. THE TRIGGER FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL ONCE AGAIN  
COME FROM A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OFF LAKE ERIE...THAT WILL GRADUALLY  
PUSH EAST/NORTHEAST FROM THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE DURING THE MIDDAY AND  
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LIGHT FLOW UP THROUGH 20K FT AND A 'SKINNY'  
CAPE PROFILE...ANY CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS WITH  
ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED PEA SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 35  
KTS. GIVEN PWAT VALUES THAT WILL APPROACH 1.5"...THERE WILL BE A  
GREATER CHANCE FOR SLOW MOVING DOWNPOURS THAT COULD PRODUCE A HALF  
INCH SOAKING FOR A GIVEN AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL  
EXPERIENCE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.  
 
ANY REMAINING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FINGER LAKES OR  
SOUTHERN TIER EARLY THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE WITH THE  
SETTING SUN...AS A STABILIZING ENVIRONMENT AND GREATLY WEAKENED LAKE  
BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR FAIR WEATHER TO PREVAIL. OTHERWISE A  
FAIR WARM NIGHT WILL BE FOUND OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW  
YORK WITH THE MERCURY ONLY SETTLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. THESE  
VALUES WILL BE MORE TYPICAL OF THOSE FOUND IN JULY OR EARLY AUGUST.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO THE LOWER GREAT  
LAKES REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING MID-SUMMERS WARMTH  
AND A PERSISTENT BUT SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO  
OUR REGION DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  
 
THE BIG STORY FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE EARLY SEASON HEAT, WHICH  
WILL APPROACH RECORD LEVELS ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE  
MID 80S TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND OF THE LAKE BREEZE ON SATURDAY, WITH  
SUNDAY JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE MID TO  
UPPER 60S WHICH WILL RESULT IN MUGGY CONDITIONS AND LIMIT COOLING  
OVERNIGHT.  
 
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE  
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN DAYTIME HEATING HELPS  
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE COMBINATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER  
MOISTURE AND HEATING WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY  
WITH NAM/GFS BUFKIT SHOWING AFTERNOON CAPES CLIMBING OVER 1500 J/KG  
INLAND OF THE LAKE BREEZE. DESPITE THIS INSTABILITY, UPPER LEVEL  
RIDGING WILL LIMIT LARGE SCALE LIFT. LACKING A FOCUS, EXPECT  
DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS TO BE FAIRLY SPARSE IN AREAL  
COVERAGE, MAINLY FOCUSING ON AND INLAND OF LAKE BREEZE, BOUNDARIES  
FROM ADJACENT OR PREVIOUS CONVECTION, OR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.  
MODEL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS MAY BE MISLEADING DUE TO SMOOTHING OF  
LOWER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE, WHEN IN REALITY THERE WILL BE LOCALLY  
HEAVY BUT WIDELY DISPERSED DOWNPOURS. AS A RESULT WILL CARRY MID-  
RANGE CHANCE TO LOWER END LIKELY POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING HOURS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  
 
EVEN WITHOUT ANY LARGE SCALE LIFT AT NIGHT, WEAK IMPULSES MAY CROSS  
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. THEREFORE IT IS DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY RULE  
ANY SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHTTIME AND MORNING HOURS, BUT THE CHANCES  
ARE VERY SMALL WITH VERY LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE. A SHORTWAVE WILL  
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE UPPER LAKES AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO  
BREAK DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE  
FOR SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
SUMMERS WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL HAVE ONE LAST DAY OF GRIPPING THE  
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BEFORE A WEAK COOL FRONT CROSSES THE  
REGION. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY  
MONDAY...WITH ACTIVITY ENDING LATE MORNING ACROSS WNY AND THEN THE  
AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO  
REGION AS THIS WEAK COOL FRONT CROSSES. HIGHS MONDAY WILL REACH INTO  
THE LOWER 80S FOR MANY AREAS.  
 
AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER TUES-WEDNESDAY AND  
MORE NOTICEABLE WILL BE THE DROP IN HUMIDITY AS DEWPOINTS WILL FALL  
FROM THE MID 60S MONDAY DOWN TO THE MID 50S FOR TUES-WEDNESDAY. HIGH  
PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA WILL PROVIDE FOR SUNNY  
SKIES BOTH DAYS.  
 
THURSDAY A STORM WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES  
REGION...AND TOWARDS JAMES BAY...WHILE PUSHING A COLD FRONT AND  
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT  
LAKES. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AREA BEFORE  
THE END OF THE DAY THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT SOUTHERLY  
WINDS WILL BRING A RETURN TO WARM AND MORE HUMID AIR FOR THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
PERSISTENT RIDGING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL PROVIDE WESTERN AND  
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF  
PERIOD. AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS THAT WERE OVER KJHW EARLIER THIS  
MORNING HAVE DRIFTED NORTH TO KBUF WHERE AN HOUR OR SO OF MVFR WILL  
OCCUR UNTIL THE LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT.  
 
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...THERE WILL  
BE THE RISK FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES  
REGION AFTER 16Z. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT COMMERCIAL TAF  
SITES THOUGH FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.  
 
FOR TONIGHT...ANY EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE.  
THIS WILL LEAVE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS.  
TUESDAY...VFR.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
A BURGEONING RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT EXTENDING  
TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WILL KEEP FAIR  
WEATHER IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE MEMORIAL DAY  
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES.  
 
WHILE FINE CONDITIONS FOR RECREATIONAL BOATING WILL LIKELY PERSIST  
THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE  
ACROSS THE REGION.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
THE FIRST EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUMMER'S WARMTH WILL BE UPON US THIS  
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S, OF WHICH SOME  
OF THESE DAILY READINGS MAY NEAR RECORD LEVELS. LISTED BELOW ARE  
THE RECORDS FOR OUR THREE CLIMATE STATIONS.  
 
BUFFALO...  
 
TODAY......MAY 27TH...RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM...89F...1978   
.....................RECORD HIGH MINIMUM...69F
 
1991  
 
SATURDAY...MAY 28TH...RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM...86F...2012   
.....................RECORD HIGH MINIMUM...69F
 
1911  
 
SUNDAY.....MAY 29TH...RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM...87F...1987   
.....................RECORD HIGH MINIMUM...68F
 
1987  
 
ROCHESTER...  
 
TODAY......MAY 27TH...RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM...92F...1978   
.....................RECORD HIGH MINIMUM...70F
 
1918  
 
SATURDAY...MAY 28TH...RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM...93F...1911   
.....................RECORD HIGH MINIMUM...68F
 
1939  
 
SUNDAY.....MAY 29TH...RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM...92F...2006   
.....................RECORD HIGH MINIMUM...69F
 
1908  
 
WATERTOWN...  
 
TODAY......MAY 27TH...RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM...87F...1960   
.....................RECORD HIGH MINIMUM...67F
 
1991  
 
SATURDAY...MAY 28TH...RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM...85F...2012   
.....................RECORD HIGH MINIMUM...64F
 
1987  
 
SUNDAY.....MAY 29TH...RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM...87F...2012   
.....................RECORD HIGH MINIMUM...63F
 
2006  
 
A CLIMATIC DAY IS BETWEEN 1 AM EDT TO 1 AM EDT.  
 
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER DATE BACK TO 1871,  
WHILE RECORDS FOR WATERTOWN START IN 1949.  
 

 
   
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NY...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...RSH  
NEAR TERM...RSH/SMITH  
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/WCH  
LONG TERM...THOMAS  
AVIATION...RSH/SMITH  
MARINE...RSH/SMITH  
CLIMATE...THOMAS  
 
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