734  
FXUS61 KBUF 182038  
AFDBUF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY  
438 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN  
QUEBEC TONIGHT...THEN PUSH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. THIS  
SCENARIO WILL SUPPORT A COOL BUT OTHERWISE PLEASANT DAY ON FRIDAY.  
THEN AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION  
WILL PUMP NOTICEABLY WARMER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION FOR SATURDAY. A  
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS FOR THE SECOND HALF  
OF THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING CLOUDS  
BLANKETING MOST OF WESTERN NEW YORK DUE TO COOL UPSLOPE FLOW COMING  
IN OFF LAKE ONTARIO ON A NORTHERLY FLOW. ONLY AREAS SEEING BREAKS OF  
SUN ARE ACROSS OUR THREE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES AND ACROSS THE  
NORTHCOUNTRY WHERE THERE IS NO LAKE INFLUENCE. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING  
JUST A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER/FINGER LAKES LATE  
THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN  
QUEBEC. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY REMOVE OUR UPSLOPE FLOW AS WINDS WILL  
VEER TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST. DESPITE THIS IT LOOKS AS THOUGH  
ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY GET TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS UNDER THE  
INVERSION TO ALLOW SOME CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND ACROSS AREAS SOUTH  
OF LAKE ONTARIO. FOR THESE REASONS AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH OUR  
SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE OPTED NOT TO HOIST A FROST ADVISORY FOR  
ANY COUNTIES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD UP  
A FEW EXTRA DEGREES DUE TO THE EXTRA CLOUD COVER. EXPECT LOWS  
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A FEW COLDER  
SPOTS POSSIBLY GETTING DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. THAT SAID...THERE  
WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE TYPICAL COLDER  
SPOTS...ALONG WITH ANY AREAS THAT SEE MORE CLEARING. NOW FOR THE  
NORTHCOUNTRY...CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS WILL PROMOTE  
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS UP HERE. TEMPERATURES EAST  
OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S...WITH SOME UPPER  
20S ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. ONLY UPPER 30S  
FOUND ACROSS THIS AREA WILL BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN  
SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO. WITH THIS IN MIND...FREEZE WARNING  
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JEFFERSON/LEWIS COUNTIES...WITH A FROST  
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR OSWEGO COUNTY.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY  
PROVIDING A NICE DAY...WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES  
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH  
WILL HELP BOOST HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN NEW  
YORK...WITH COOLER UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE  
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT COMMENCE UNTIL A BIT LATER IN THE DAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
THE STABLE ANTICYCLONE WILL RETREAT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY  
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND  
STRENGTHEN WITH TIME...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES  
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE WARM  
ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD REALLY BECOME PRONOUNCED DURING THIS TIME  
WITH A POTENTIALLY VERY WARM DAY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM ANY  
COOLING INFLUENCES DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST  
A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY FROM MID DAY THROUGH EARLY  
AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH THE FLOW OF INCOMING WARM AIR  
SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...BY THIS MAY BE A  
TAD CONSERVATIVE WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES SURGING TO NEAR +14C  
ESPECIALLY IF MORE SUNSHINE IS REALIZED. SOME OF THE FAVORED  
DOWNSLOPE AREAS COULD GET INTO THE LOWER 80S. THE STRENGTHENING  
GRADIENT FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS DOWNWIND OF THE  
LAKES TO NEAR 40 MPH.  
 
THE COLD FRONT IS STILL SLATED TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE  
DAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER  
STARTING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF  
SUNDAY.  
 
BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LARGELY TO OUR  
EAST. A SWATH OF DRY SLOTTING/SUBSIDENCE WORKING IN BEHIND THE FRONT  
SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWING THE  
FRONT...BEFORE RENEWED SHOWER CHANCES DEVELOP WITH THE ARRIVAL OF  
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS MONDAY  
AND TUESDAY. THE COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO  
ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS THE  
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT/INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. AFTER  
THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MARKEDLY BY MIDWEEK AS STRONG  
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS. PLENTY OF ASSOCIATED  
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER...  
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A BLANKET OF LOW LEVEL LAKE CLOUDS  
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO STRETCHING FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER EAST  
THROUGH THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION. MVFR/IFR CIGS  
CONTINUE AT THE KBUF/KIAG/KROC TERMINALS. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO  
REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED  
TERMINALS...WITH LOW VFR CIGS AT KART. THE SOUTHERN TIER (INCLUDING  
KJHW) HAS JUST SCATTERED DECKS OBSERVED AROUND 4KFT. EXPECT CIGS TO  
SCATTER OUT LATER THIS EVENING. ACROSS THE NORTHCOUNTRY LOW VFR CIGS  
SHOULD SCATTER OUT LATER THIS EVENING AS WELL...LEAVING CLEAR TO  
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AT THE KART TERMINAL AS DRIER AIR PUSHES  
SOUTH OUT OF CANADA COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF LAKE INFLUENCE.  
 
FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING BY TO OUR NORTH WILL PROMOTE VFR  
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF OUR REGION...WITH PATCHY LOW DECKS  
FOUND SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE VALLEYS OF  
THE SRN TIER WHERE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS COULD DEVELOP LATER  
TONIGHT.  
 
FRIDAY...ANY MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER  
(POSSIBLY KJHW) WILL MIX OUT/BURN OFF BY MID MORNING...LEAVING  
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z AS A  
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.  
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.  
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE  
TONIGHT...THE WEAKENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS AND  
WAVES TO SUBSIDE. MODERATE EASTERLIES WILL PRODUCE 2-3 FOOT WAVES  
ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY. ASIDE FROM THIS  
AREA...NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE THE REMAINDER OF  
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.  
 
A DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE LOWER  
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND WHILE THE HIGHEST WAVES  
WILL BE FOUND IN CANADIAN WATERS...THE STRONGER WINDS COULD LEAD TO  
WIND AND WAVE BASED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.  
 

 
   
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ007-008.  
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ006.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...JM  
NEAR TERM...JM  
SHORT TERM...TMA  
LONG TERM...TMA  
AVIATION...JM  
MARINE...JM  
 
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