394  
FXUS61 KBUF 271447  
AFDBUF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY  
947 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FROM  
WEST TO EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF  
BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW BRINGS A WIDESPREAD SNOW ON  
THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
A WESTERN MOVING WAVE...POSSIBLY BEST SEEN IR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO  
PROVIDE LIFT OVER WESTERN NY WITH LIGHT SNOW THE RESULT FOR AREAS  
ROUGHLY WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. MEANWHILE...EAST OF LAKE  
ONTARIO...SUBSIDENCE AND LACKING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS GIVING THIS  
SECTION OF NY A SUNNY MORNING. LOW CLOUDS LINGER FURTHER SOUTH AND  
INTO THE FINGER LAKES REGION...WITH HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NOR-EASTER  
STILL AFFECTING AREAS FURTHER TO THE EAST.  
 
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY EXPECT THE WESTWARD MOVING WAVE TO  
AFFECT WESTERN NY THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY...WITH LIGHT/MEAGER  
ACCUMULATIONS.  
 
LAKE EFFECT SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO LOOKS NEGLIGIBLE AT THIS TIME AS  
SUBSIDENCE HINDERS ANY DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE REMOVED  
THIS THREAT BASED OFF OF MORNING OBSERVATIONS. 13Z AMDAR DATA AT  
KROC SHOWS A VERY LOW CAP AT ABOUT 2000FT...SIMILAR TO 12Z KBUF  
SOUNDING. MEANWHILE TOWARD KSYR SHOWS AN INVERSION FROM THE GROUND  
UP.  
 
SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY AND WILL  
TAKE ITS CLOUD COVER WITH IT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE  
AREA. WILL SEE A CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT  
LOW TEMPS FALLING TO THE LOWER SINGLE NUMBERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND  
ZERO TO 5 BELOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
SEVERAL FACTORS WILL ALIGN TO PRODUCE A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER  
OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THESE  
INCLUDE...VERY STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE PERIPHERY  
OF THE WEAKENING AND DEPARTING ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW...CONFLUENCE  
ALOFT...AND BUILDING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS DUE TO THE STOUT SHORTWAVE  
RIDGING PUSHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. VERY LITTLE CHANGES WERE  
NEEDED TO THE INHERITED FORECAST. GIVEN THE OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF THE  
SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRYNESS OF THE INCOMING AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO  
SUNNY SKIES WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS  
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY UNDERNEATH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND EMERGING WARM  
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.  
 
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME ACTIVE AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM  
MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL BE  
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN/SOUTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE  
DAY ON THURSDAY...THEN INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT. A WARMER  
THERMAL PROFILE IS EXPECTED WITH A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF  
SNOWFALL FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT STILL  
LOOKING ON TARGET WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE  
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE SEEN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE  
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL REGION.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
ON FRIDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A  
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ENTERING THE REGION AGAIN BEHIND A DEPARTING  
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND ASCENT FROM THE  
LOW MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE SNOW  
SHOWERS...AND A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME LIMITED  
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITH SOME UPSLOPE  
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SHORT FETCH AND LACK OF UPSTREAM LAKE  
CONNECTIONS COMBINED WITH A DRYING AIRMASS DURING THE AFTERNOON  
SHOULD KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW RELATIVELY LIGHT DESPITE THE VERY COLD  
AIRMASS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES  
FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP THROUGH THE TEENS ON  
FRIDAY WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD ADVECTION...THEN DROP TO NEAR  
ZERO ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND  
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER ON SATURDAY.  
BY SUNDAY MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE. THE GFS  
BRINGS ANOTHER WELL DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW  
THOUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW...WHILE THE  
ECMWF IS ESSENTIALLY LACKING THIS SYSTEM...INSTEAD PLACING MORE  
EMPHASIS ON A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH WOULD REMAIN LARGELY SOUTH  
OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLES ALLOW  
THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY PHASE...CREATING A STRONGER  
SYSTEM WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOW. GIVEN THE MODEL  
UNCERTAINTY...FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FOR SUNDAY  
AND MONDAY. IT WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONE OR TWO  
DAYS OF VERY COLD WEATHER POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH EXACTLY  
WHICH DAY IS COLDEST DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION ENDS UP  
VERIFYING.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
MOSTLY LOWER MVFR OR MARGINAL IFR CIGS WITH MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT  
SNOW. KART REMAINS OUT OF THE FRAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT  
CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH 20Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN  
FROM THE WEST AND NORTH WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND FOR ALL SITES  
AFTER 00Z.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.  
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW.  
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.  
SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF  
THE EAST COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND  
PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS  
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH  
THE DAY.  
 

 
   
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NY...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042>044.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...WCH  
NEAR TERM...WCH/ZAFF  
SHORT TERM...TMA  
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK  
AVIATION...WCH/ZAFF  
MARINE...FRANKLIN/WCH  
 
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