272  
FXUS61 KBUF 191440  
AFDBUF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY  
940 AM EST SUN FEB 19 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY PROVIDE OUR REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER  
THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK, WITH A CHANCE OF SOME DRIZZLE EAST OF LAKE  
ONTARIO TONIGHT AS A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OUT OF  
CANADA. MEANWHILE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LAST RIGHT THROUGH  
THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE FIRST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL  
LATE TUESDAY WHEN A WEAK FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF THICKER HIGH CLOUDS  
EXITING INTO EASTERN NY THIS MORNING, LEAVING THE BULK OF THE AREA  
WITH NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE. A FEW MORE PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS  
UPSTREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY, BUT DO  
LITTLE TO DETRACT FROM SUNSHINE FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA.  
 
A WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH  
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF ADDED MOISTURE  
FROM THE FRONT AND WESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD FINALLY  
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LOW STRATUS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO  
BY LATER TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN FOOTHILLS  
OF THE ADIRONDACKS WITH AN ADDED BOOST FROM UPSLOPE FLOW. FOR THE  
REST OF THE AREA, EXPECT SUNSHINE TO DOMINATE TODAY.  
 
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY, BUT STILL  
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. SUSPECT THAT A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE IS A BIT TOO  
COLD WITH SOME MODELS OVERDONE WITH LOW MOISTURE AND STRATUS. HIGHS  
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS WESTERN NY TO THE FINGER  
LAKES, WITH LOW TO MID 40S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THESE HIGHS WILL  
LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING  
BACK A FEW DEGREES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD ADVECTION INCREASES  
BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.  
 
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT, WHILE AN ELONGATED  
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THERE MAY BE SOME  
PATCHY STRATUS IN THE AREA, BUT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF CLEAR  
SKIES AS WELL. LOWS WILL VARY BASED ON SKY CONDITIONS, GENERALLY BE  
IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO, WITH LOWER TO  
MID 20S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS  
STILL TO OUR WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER ON MONDAY, BUT STILL  
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES, AS THE COOL AIR MASS BEHIND A DEPARTING  
SHORTWAVE LINGER ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST  
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY, CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE COLD AIRMASS,  
AND WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HOWEVER, WNY WILL SEE WARM  
AIR ADVECTION INCREASING BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES  
TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH INTO THE  
MID TO UPPER 40S. OTHERWISE, EXPECT FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY  
SKIES.  
 
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FASTER WITH THE APPROACHING PROGRESSIVE  
SHORTWAVE, WITH THE CONSENSUS NOW BRINGING IT ACROSS THE AREA DURING  
THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUD COVER EARLY  
TUESDAY MORNING, WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY CROSSING THE AREA DURING  
THE DAY TUESDAY, AND TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT.  
WITH NO REAL COLD AIR SOURCE TO THE WAVE, TUESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN  
THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTH COUNTRY TO MID 50S IN WNY, MAINLY LIMITED  
BY THE CLOUD COVER AND ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS.  
 
RIDGING WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY BRINING MORE FAIR WEATHER.  
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES SURGE BACK TO AROUND 50 IN THE NORTH  
COUNTRY, TO THE LOWER 60S IN WNY, CONTINUING THE STRETCH OF VERY  
MILD WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
RIDGING WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY BRINING MORE FAIR WEATHER.  
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES SURGE BACK TO AROUND 50 IN THE NORTH  
COUNTRY, TO THE LOWER 60S IN WNY, CONTINUING THE STRETCH OF VERY  
MILD WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SOLIDLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD...  
AS A BLOCKED FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE  
MAIN FEATURE WITHIN THE OBSTRUCTED FLOW WILL BE A REX BLOCK THAT  
WILL BE ANCHORED BETWEEN ALASKA AND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS WILL  
NATURALLY KEEP A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WHILE  
GENERAL RIDGING WILL BE FOUND FURTHER DOWNSTREAM (OVER THE EAST).  
WHILE THE PATTERN WILL ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN TOWARDS THE END OF THIS  
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE TROUGH BROADENING ACROSS THE COUNTRY...BUT  
ANY SEMBLANCE OF WINTER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE  
PACKAGES ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN BECOME RE-  
ESTABLISHED OVER THE WEST.  
 
IN TERMS OF DAY TO DAY WEATHER...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DESCRIBED  
ABOVE WILL BE VERY CONDUCIVE FOR 'CUTTER' TYPE STORMS TO MAKE THEIR  
WAY FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS STORM TRACK  
WILL KEEP THE STORM SYSTEMS TO OUR WEST...FURTHER ENHANCING THE MILD  
WEATHER WITH PERIODIC INJECTIONS OF WARMTH FROM THE GOMEX. SUCH WILL  
BE THE CASE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN A SUB 990MB LOW WILL DIRECT  
SOME LATE WINTER SUB TROPICAL WARMTH (H85 TEMPS 10 TO 12C) ACROSS  
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.  
 
WHILE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF THE GENERAL PATTERN AND ITS  
CORRESPONDING IMPACTS ON OUR TEMPERATURES...THE SAME CANNOT BE SAID  
ABOUT THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL STORM SYSTEMS. THIS WILL LEAD TO  
SOME BROAD BRUSHING OF CHC POPS...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE PERIOD.  
WILL THUS REFRAIN FROM GETTING TOO SPECIFIC WITH THE USE OF LIKELY  
POPS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.  
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY WITH JUST SOME PASSING  
CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDINESS. ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY, SOME LOW STRATUS  
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AS  
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES, WITH PATCHY MVFR/IFR CIGS.  
 
AFTER THIS, UPSLOPING FROM THE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT MAY  
RESULT IN SOME MORE LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT. THIS SAID, TEMPERATURES  
ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY LAKE EFFECT  
CLOUDS, WITH COVERAGE LIKELY TO BE PATCHY IN NATURE. AS A RESULT,  
12Z TAFS WILL CONTINUE TO HEDGE MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN GUIDANCE, AND  
WILL MAINLY CARRY A SCATTERED MVFR CLOUD DECK BEHIND THE FRONT. THE  
BEST CHANCE FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IS AT ART/ROC WHERE A PERIOD OF  
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IS LIKELY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.  
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF  
MVFR.  
WEDNESDAY...VFR.  
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST  
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATER TODAY. WAVES WILL  
AVERAGE 2-4 FEET ON THE EAST HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO, BUT GIVEN THE  
MARGINAL SETUP EXPECT WAVES TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT  
CRITERIA. LIGHTER WINDS WILL RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND.  
 

 
   
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NY...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK  
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK  
SHORT TERM...THOMAS  
LONG TERM...RSH  
AVIATION...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK  
MARINE...APFFEL  
 
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