471
FXUS61 KBUF 090558
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
158 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2008
SYNOPSIS
OUR VERY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL TEMPORARILY COME TO AN END
LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COOL FRONT WILL CROSS
OUR REGION. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH SOME OF THE STORMS TONIGHT PRODUCING
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS. THE FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND MORE
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD AGAIN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING...WITH MAINLY AN AREA OF RAIN LEFTOVER
TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO FIRE ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO AND THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS ACTIVITY FOR
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. UPSTREAM COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TOWARD DAYBREAK
TOMORROW AND THEN CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA. SHOWERS MAY LINGER A
BIT DURING THE MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY BUT STILL
A BIT ABOVE THE NORM FOR EARLY JULY.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
THIS PERIOD WILL CERTAINLY PROVE TO BE UNEVENTFUL WITH NO SEVERE
WEATHER AND MOST LIKELY NO PRECIPITATION. ENJOY.
LEFTOVER POST FRONTAL MOISTURE THAT MAY BE LINGERING ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL FINALLY CLEAR OUT DURING THE COURSE OF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE PASSAGE OF ITS UPPER LEVEL H5 SUPPORT
WILL USHER IN SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS. H85 TEMPS WILL DROP JUST
BELOW 10C DURING THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT...AND THIS WILL HELP TO
SEND SFC TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION.
ON THURSDAY...A H5 RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FINE SUNNY DAY ACROSS OUR
REGION...WITH H85 TEMPS BELOW 10 KEEPING SFC MAX TEMPS FROM RISING
OUT OF THE 70S. THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO ADVECT
NOTICEABLY LOWER DEW POINTS INTO THE REGION..WITH TD'S GENERALLY IN
THE MID 50S RTAHER THAN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC
RIDGE WILL CREST ACROSS OUR REGION. LIGHT WINDS WITH CLR/PC SKIES
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE 50S...WITH WIDESPREAD
40S EXPECTED FOR THE INTERIOR WRN SOUTHERN TIER AND ALSO FOR THE TUG
HILL REGION EAST OF LK ONTARIO.
FOR FRIDAY...THE SFC RIDGE WILL START TO MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION
WITH DEEP WARM ADVECTION SETTING UP ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE WARM ADVECTION COULD GENERATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
ALTO-CU...BUT ANY UNUSETTLED WEATHER WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE
LAKES WHERE GREATER ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE FOUND.
THE WARM ADVECTION WILL RAISE H85 TEMPS TO BETWEEN +16C (FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES) AND +12C (EAST OF LK ONTARIO). AFTER A ONE DAY REPRIEVE...
THIS WILL ALLOW SFC MAX TEMPS TO RECOVER BACK INTO THE 80S FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION.
THIS PERIOD WILL END ON A WARM NOTE AS A BROAD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL BLANKET OUR REGION WITH H85 TEMPS BETWEEN +16 AND 18C FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT. WE WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BY
THIS POINT...SO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE A WARM ONE WITH MINS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE IAG
FRONTIER...THOSE MINS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPER 60S. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR WHAT SHOULD BE A VERY WARM...IF NOT A HOT DAY ON
SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW FOUND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO START THIS
PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO A TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO A
PROGRESSIVE RIDGE THAT WILL MAKE ITS WAY OVER THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO A TREND TOWARDS COOLER WEATHER...
BUT WE WILL HAVE TO MAKE IT THROUGH A HOT DAY ON SATURDAY FIRST. THE
FORECAST DETAILS...
A DEEP H5 LOW CRUISING ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO ON SATURDAY WILL
CIRCULATE VERY WARM +18 TO 20C H85 AIR ACROSS OUR REGION WITH DEW
POINTS CLIMBING BACK ABOVE 60F. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A HOT AND
SOMEWHAT STICKY AFTERNOON...WITH THE BULK OF THE REGION BEING CAPPED
WITH NO CONVECTION. THE ONLY REAL RISK OF ANY CONVECTION WILL COME
OVER THE FINGER LAKES AND PORTIONS OF THE WRN SOUTHERN TIER AS A
RESULT OF POSSIBLE INITIATION ALONG A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE
REGION. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS FOR THIS PERIOD...BUT HAVE RAISED
FROM 30 TO 40 GIVEN MODEL CONSISTENCY AND TREND OF INCREASED
INSTABILITY.
MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY WILL COME INTO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS
THERE IS LITTLE CONSENSUS AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AS TO HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE SUNDAY
SHOULD BE MAINLY RAINFREE...HAVE INTRODUCED LOW CHC POPS FOR THE
BULK OF THE DAY (ESP. EAST OF GEN VALLEY) AND HAVE ALSO SLOWED THE
TREND OF LOWERING TD'S.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL THEN PROOVE TO BE QUITE PLEASANT AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS ALL OF THE GREAT LAKES. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH DAYS WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND
RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
CONVECTION IN AND AROUND THE GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED AS OF 06Z. THE STRONGEST AND MOST
CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY AT THIS HOUR IS IN THE FORM OF AN MCS TRACKING
EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO...BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTH
OF OUR AREA OWING TO THE PREVAILING 260/270 DEGREE MID LEVEL FLOW.
NORTH OF THIS AREA...ANOTHER BAND OF OTHER MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWERS
WAS EXITING THE AREA VIA THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WITH ONLY SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS FOUND ACROSS FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
EXPECT THAT WE SHOULD SEE SOME MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS MORNING. THE BULK OF THIS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
SHOWERS... THOUGH THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE WARM AND
HUMID NATURE OF OUR AIRMASS. BEHIND THIS FEATURE...EXPECT A RETURN
TO SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION...BEFORE
AFTERNOON HEATING LEADS TO DESTABILIZATION AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW MORE SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING GREAT LAKES COLD
FRONT DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOULD ANY CONVECTION
OCCUR...IT WOULD BE MOST LIKELY IN THE KBUF-KIAG-KROC
CORRIDOR...WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OFF OF LAKE ERIE. THE FRONT ITSELF SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER THEN FOLLOWING FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IN TERMS OF CIGS/VSBYS...EXPECT THAT GENERAL IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
IN LOWER CLOUDS/LIGHT FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY
MIDDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF REDUCTIONS
TO MVFR IN ANY STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MARINE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS BOTH LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. RECREATIONAL MARINERS SHOULD THINK
TWICE...OR AT LEAST PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...
BEFORE HEADING OUT TONIGHT.
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO LATER
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY FORMING OUT
IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT ON LAKE ERIE...AND THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT. THESE STORMS
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY VERY HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS.
BESIDES THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BECOME
FRESH SOUTHWESTERLY ON LAKE ERIE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. LIGHTER WINDS
WILL BE FOUND ON LAKE ONTARIO...WITH WAVES ON BOTH LAKES NOT
EXCEEDING 3 FEET. REMEMBER THAT WINDS AND WAVES THOUGH CAN BE
HIGHER...IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...THE BULK OF THE DAY SHOULD BE RAINFREE. RECREATIONAL
MARIERS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DOUBLE CHECK FORECASTS BEFORE HEADING OUT
OF PORT THOUGH. WINDS ON BOTH LAKES WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST
AND INCREASE FROM MODERATE TO FRESH BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A MODERATE BREEZE WITH
WAVES REMAINING WELL BELOW ADVSORY CRITERIA.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...LEVAN/TMA
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...RSH
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