261  
FXUS61 KBUF 242232  
AFDBUF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY  
632 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES  
TONIGHT...BRINGING A FEW SPRINKLES TO THE SOUTHERN TIER AND SOUTH OF  
LAKE ONTARIO WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.  
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...LOOK FOR VERY WARM AND GENERALLY DRY  
CONDITIONS FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE  
REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST...WARM AND MOIST RETURN FLOW  
WILL KEEP SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
A WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH THIS  
EVENING IS DEVELOPING A BAND OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS LAKE  
ERIE AND INTO NE OH / NW PA. THIS CAN BEST BE SEEN ON THE CLEVELAND  
RADAR EARLY THIS EVENING. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER  
CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE OF THIS  
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WHILE LOW-LEVEL AIR ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND  
WESTERN NY REMAINS FAIRLY DRY...WITH 30 DEGREE DEW POINT  
DEPRESSIONS...EXPECT THAT OVER TIME AS THIS FRONT LIFTS  
NORTH...THE CHANCE FOR TOP-DOWN SATURATION WILL INCREASE. HAVE  
ADDED A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO  
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER AREAS THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT LIFTS  
FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND  
THE NORTH COUNTRY...SATURATION WILL BE EASIER TO ACHIEVE AND THE  
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT OVERNIGHT. ALSO  
WITH THE WARMER AIR SURGING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION...THIS WILL  
RESULT IN A VERY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.  
 
MEMORIAL DAY WILL USHER IN A RETURN TO SUMMER AS THE AREA WILL BE  
LOCATED FIRMLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A SURFACE/MID-LEVEL LOW  
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WARM AIR ALOFT WILL LARGELY STYMIE ANY  
CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WITH INCREASING  
DEWPOINTS ON RETURN FLOW...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS FIRING  
ALONG THE LAKE ERIE LAKE BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE ONLY OTHER  
AREA WHERE WE MAY SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A  
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...CLOSER TO THE  
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL  
BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH READINGS HITTING THE MID  
TO UPPER 80S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE THRUWAY WHERE SOUTHERLY  
DOWNSLOPING WILL HELP BUMP READINGS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THE ONLY  
AREAS THAT MAY REMAIN IN THE 70S WILL BE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE  
COOLER LAKES AND THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE A SYNOPTICALLY ENHANCED  
LAKE BREEZE AND CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL KEEP  
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
MONDAY NIGHT A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL FINISH ITS NORTHWARD EXIT  
THROUGH THE CWA USHERING IN WARMER...AND MORE HUMID AIR. A FEW  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO  
MONDAY EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. ADDITIONALLY  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY  
AFTERNOON...FORMING TO THE LEE OF A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY  
SNEAK INTO WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WITH THE LOSS  
OF DAYTIME HEATING AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH  
THROUGH THE MID AND LATE EVENING HOURS. IT WILL REMAIN WARM  
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.  
 
TUESDAY WILL HAVE A TASTE OF SUMMER TO THE DAY AS A LARGE UPPER  
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN COASTLINE.  
INITIALLY THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CAPPED...WITH SUNSHINE AND  
CLOUDS AROUND. WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND +15C SURFACE HEATING  
THROUGH THE DAY WILL BRING SBCAPES 500 TO 1000 J/KG. THIS  
INSTABILITY...AND THE WEAKENING OF THE CAP SHOULD ALLOW FOR  
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM. THERE SHOULD BE  
ENOUGH WIND ALOFT...0-6KM SHEAR OF 30 KNOTS TO ALLOW THESE STORMS TO  
GROW...WITH A FEW POSSIBLE INLAND STRONG STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
A WEAK WAVE ALOFT WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES/LAKE  
ERIE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN  
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH NO CHANGE  
IN AIRMASS THE AIR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE  
PRIOR NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.  
 
ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK SURFACE FRONT ACCOMPANYING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE  
POPS...AND EVEN SOME LIKELY POPS AS MORE FAVORABLE LIFTING WILL BE  
FOUND THIS DAY IN ADDITION TO FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE.  
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING AFTERNOON  
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S  
TO LOWER 80S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
THE STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COASTLINE EARLY  
WEEK...WILL NOW BE OFF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE TO START THIS TIME  
PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW SUBTLE SHORTWAVES TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE  
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE  
INLAND AND ALONG LAKE BREEZES WHERE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AIDED BY  
LIFT FROM LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION SHOULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW EASTWARD WE SHOULD  
NOT BE AS CAPPED AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK...ALLOWING MORE FAVORABLE  
CONDITIONS FOR STORMS TO BREW. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES POPS IN  
THE GRIDS...THOUGH MUCH OF THE TIME SHOULD BE RAIN FREE.  
 
AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND 12Z GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A COLD  
FRONT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS  
THROUGH THE REGION. DIFFERENCES ARE THAT THE GFS IS A BIT  
FASTER...WHILE THE ECMWF WITH SEVERAL CONVECTIVE SURFACE WAVES ON  
THE FRONT IS SLOWER. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCES POPS FOR BOTH WEEKEND  
DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT NONE THE LESS THIS FRONT  
REPRESENTS THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS  
TIME PERIOD.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. WARMEST PERIOD  
WILL LIKELY BE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE UPPER  
70S TO MID 80S WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL TURN BRIEFLY  
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER INTO A MID-LEVEL DECK AROUND 10KFT  
THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES  
TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES THIS EVENING ACROSS THE  
SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO THE KBUF/KROC AREA...HOWEVER DRY AIR IN THE  
LOW-LEVELS SHOULD KEEP FLIGHT CONDITIONS VFR. AS THE FRONT LIFTS  
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT...KART SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF  
SHOWERS AFTER 09Z. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KART WITH ANY  
HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP.  
 
INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT MAY PUMP UP SFC  
DEWPOINTS ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ALONG LAKE ERIE LAKE  
BREEZE MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT IN SHOULD  
LARGELY SUPPRESS CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH VFR  
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOL/SCT -SHRA/TSRA.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE DOCKED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL EXTEND BACK  
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL KEEP A  
RELATIVELY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. THE RESULT WILL BE  
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS FOR BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WITH WAVES  
AVERAGING 2 FEET OR LESS.  
 
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH AT  
LEAST MID WEEK...AND THIS WILL KEEP A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW IN  
PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE GENERALLY SUB SMALL CRAFT  
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED... THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR  
NEARLY DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG WITH A LIGHT  
CHOP...PARTICULARLY ON THE EAST ENDS OF THE LAKES.  
 

 
   
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NY...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/WOOD  
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/WOOD  
SHORT TERM...THOMAS  
LONG TERM...THOMAS  
AVIATION...CHURCH/WOOD  
MARINE...CHURCH/WOOD  
 
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