094  
FXUS61 KBUF 040406  
AFDBUF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY  
1106 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
COLDER AIR IN THE WAKE OF A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD THE  
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE  
WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL  
EVENTUALLY LEAD TO SOME ALL TOO FAMILIAR FRIGID WEATHER FOR  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20  
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM PRODUCED A WIDE VARIETY OF ACCUMULATING  
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE PAST 18  
HOURS...BUT THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION HAS NOW PUSHED OFF TO OUR  
EAST. WHILE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN  
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...NEW ICE RELATED PROBLEMS ARE NO LONGER  
EXPECTED. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME LEFTOVER POCKETS OF LIGHT  
FREEZING RAIN EAST OF THE FINGER LAKES THOUGH...SO WILL LEAVE THE  
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE IN THAT AREA UNTIL 4 AM.  
 
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...THE MERCURY WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB IN  
MOST AREA OVERNIGHT TO AS HIGH AS 40 OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND  
THE LOW TO MID 30S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT PUSHING  
THROUGH THE AREA BY DAYBREAK WILL THEN START A TREND OF LOWERING  
TEMPERATURES.  
 
ON WEDNESDAY...THE VERY BRIEF BOUT OF MILDER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY  
TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN  
PRAIRIES WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND  
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM  
WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC. AFTER MORNING HIGH  
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY  
SINK BACK INTO THE 20S DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON.  
 
THE SLOW RETURN TO COLDER WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED  
BY MAINLY PCPN FREE CONDITIONS...EXCEPT LEFTOVER MORNING SNOW  
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND SOME WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW  
SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
SYNOPTICALLY DURING THIS PERIOD ANOTHER COLD HIGH WILL GRADUALLY  
SPREAD INTO THE AREA WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.  
LAKE EFFECT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW  
DOWNSTREAM OF THE ICE FREE AREA ON LAKE ONTARIO.  
 
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN A FAIRLY  
UNIDIRECTIONAL WEST NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND  
THURSDAY. FORECAST SOUNDING INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO  
INCREASE TO THE 4-6KFT RANGE WHICH MAY SUPPORT MINOR LAKE EFFECT  
SNOW FOR AREAS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO DOWNWIND OF THE  
OPEN WATER.  
 
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE FRIGID AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND  
-20C. SOME WARMING CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF  
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
THE MODELS ARE LOOKING MORE CONSISTENT FOR THE MID WEEK SYSTEM WITH  
A LOT OF RIDGING ALOFT AND A WAVE RUNNING UP THE FRONT TO OUR WEST.  
THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR TO FLOOD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND  
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. STILL NOT VERY COMFORTABLE WITH THE EXACT TRACK  
AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE SPECIFIC TIMING. THE WARM UP  
WILL BE SLOWED TO SOME EXTENT BY THE EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER BUT THERE  
CERTAINLY SEEMS TO BE AN INCREASING CHANCE THAT WE WILL BE ON THE  
WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.  
 
WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF NUDGING UP FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND  
ALLOWING FOR A CHANGE TO RAIN. WILL NOT GO AS WARM AS IT COULD GET  
JUST YET GIVEN THAT WE ARE STILL 5/6 DAYS AWAY AND NO CONFIDENCE YET  
ON THE EXACT TIMING. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES MAY WELL OCCUR TUESDAY  
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...OFFSET OF THE NORMAL HIGH/LOW FORECAST  
TIMES. TEMPS COULD BE ALREADY BE ON THE WAY DOWN BY DAYBREAK  
WEDNESDAY...OR IT COULD BE 50 DEGREES. OTHER POSSIBILITIES WILL HAVE  
TO EXAMINED AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES AND WE GET MORE COMFORTABLE WITH  
THE TIMING SUCH AS THE RISK OF FLOODING AND THE THREAT OF  
THUNDERSTORMS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
A WEALTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE  
REGION OVERNIGHT. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...IFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY  
LIFT TO MVFR BY DAYBREAK.  
 
ON WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER  
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS THE MID WESTERN  
STATES.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT  
SNOW LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.  
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
A RELATIVELY TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF A STORM  
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO  
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL JUSTIFY KEEPING A SMALL CRAFT  
ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR THE NY NEARSHORES OF LK ONTARIO.  
 
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MID WEST AND OHIO VALLEY LATE  
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WINDS WILL DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY  
CRITERIA.  
 

 
   
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR  
NYZ006>008.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ043-044.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...RSH  
NEAR TERM...RSH  
SHORT TERM...TMA  
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK  
AVIATION...RSH  
MARINE...RSH  
 
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