098  
FXUS61 KBUF 201846  
AFDBUF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY  
246 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
EXPECT SOME SPRINKLES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH MID AFTERNOON  
WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AS A WEAK WAVE OF  
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE  
REGION TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THROUGH THE END OF THE  
WORK WEEK, BRINING DRY AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS. A STORM SYSTEM  
WILL APPROACH FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME RUMBLES  
OF THUNDER, MAINLY SATURDAY, WITH A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO  
SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE  
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND INTO PA TODAY WILL BRING A WEALTH OF MID  
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION. A LAYER OF VERY DRY  
AIR NEAR THE SURFACE PER THE 12Z BUF SOUNDING WILL PRECLUDE MUCH  
PRECIPITATION TODAY, KEEPING US MAINLY DRY. HOWEVER, A PERIOD OF  
MODERATE RAIN ALOFT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR SOME  
SCATTERED SPRINKLES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE  
SOUTHERN TIER TO ACTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE. MEASURABLE  
PRECIPITATION OF LESS THAN AN TENTH OF AN INCH WILL BE LIMITED TO  
THE SOUTHERN TIER. ANY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF  
FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, LEAVING US A COMPLETELY  
DRY EVENING. AN IMPORTANT NOTE, THE RADAR WILL LIKELY APPEAR MUCH  
MORE OMINOUS THAN PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY BE TODAY, SINCE IT  
WILL BE SEEING THE RAIN ALOFT, HOWEVER MUCH OF THIS WILL EVAPORATE  
BEFORE ACTUALLY REACHING THE SURFACE. OTHERWISE, LIGHT WINDS, CLOUD  
COVER, AND TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL ACTUALLY  
MAKE FOR A FANTASTIC AND COMFORTABLE DAY FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.  
 
A SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH TOWARD SOUTHERN ONTARIO CANADA TONIGHT.  
MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA  
WILL DRIVE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS QUEBEC, NORTHERN NEW YORK  
AND NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THIS FRONT WILL  
REMAIN NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WELL OUTSIDE THE FORECAST AREA,  
THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO MAY CLIP EASTERN JEFFERSON/NORTHERN  
LEWIS COUNTIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 50S WITH A  
LIGHT WIND.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH  
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING IN A COOL AND  
DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS. THE RESULT WILL BE A PHENOMENAL JUNE DAY WITH  
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
A NEARLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY  
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY  
NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AS  
MOISTURE STAYS CONFINED SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE  
WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE REGION FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH  
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST AND LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSES  
EASTWARD.  
 
LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD FRIDAY WHILE A WARM FRONT  
APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS ALOFT WILL VEER FROM THE  
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH CAUSING MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST  
AREA. OVERRUNNING WILL CAUSE CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH  
FRIDAY AND LIGHT-INTERMITTENT RAIN WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN  
NY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SINCE A DRY AIRMASS WILL STILL HAVE ITS  
HOLD ON THE REGION FRIDAY, RAIN WILL BE LIGHT AND MAY ONLY ACCOUNT  
TO TRACE AMOUNTS.  
 
WARM AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP FRIDAY NIGHT AS 850MB WINDS INCREASE TO  
30KTS AND THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN NY. RAIN WILL INCREASE  
IN COVERAGE AS THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NEAR WESTERN  
LAKE ERIE BY SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD AND  
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY, 65-70 DEG DEWPOINTS WILL SPREAD  
NORTHWARD WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THE  
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME, THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN  
TIER TO THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR  
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH  
MOVES EASTWARD INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS  
WILL EXPAND INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY AND BECOME  
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AN EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRAG THE FIRST OF TWO COLD  
FRONTS THORUGH OUR REGION ON SUNDAY. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY  
WILL BE RAIN FREE...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND  
EVEN A THUNDERSTORM. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO  
MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH A LACK OF  
INSTABILITY AND LESS FORCING...WILL ONLY CARRY A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR  
A FEW MORE SHOWERS.  
 
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS NOW SUGGESTING THE PASSAGE OF A FAIRLY  
STRONG SHORTWAVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. WILL INCREASE  
THE SKY COVER FROM CONTINUITY...AND ALSO ADD SLGT CHC POPS FOR THE  
NORTH COUNTRY...TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...MONDAY SHOULD  
FEATURE PRONOUNCED IMPROVEMENT OVER THE WEATHER FROM THE WEEKEND AS  
WE WILL RETURN TO AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE WITH MUCH MORE  
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.  
 
THE NEXT AREA OF CANADIAN BASED HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE ITS WAY  
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE SETTLING TO OUR  
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE BEAUTIFUL WEATHER ACROSS OUR  
REGION WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND  
HUMIDITY LEVELS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO, HOWEVER THESE WILL  
FALL FROM A 5-10KFT DECK WITH VSBYS 6 SM OR GREATER. ANY SHOWERS  
WILL END LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH OTHERWISE DRY  
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH  
THURSDAY.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.  
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.  
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
MONDAY...VFR.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WITH  
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT, HOWEVER CONDITIONS  
WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LAKES FOR  
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH OPTIMAL BOATING CONDITIONS. A LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NEAR THE LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND BRINING  
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER, HOWEVER WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO  
REMAIN BELOW SCA AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NY...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...CHURCH  
NEAR TERM...CHURCH  
SHORT TERM...HSK  
LONG TERM...RSH  
AVIATION...CHURCH  
MARINE...CHURCH  
 
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