987  
FXUS61 KBUF 251558  
AFDBUF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY  
1158 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COLD FRONT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA  
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME GUSTY WINDS  
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH  
COUNTRY. COOLER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL THEN SET THE STAGE FOR  
SOME NUISANCE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT  
AND SUNDAY...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL BE COOL  
AND DRY WITH BRISK WINDS. A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND CAN BE  
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
GUSTY WINDS AND PERIODS OF SUNSHINE WILL CHARACTERIZE THE EARLY  
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK AHEAD OF  
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A ROBUST WIND FIELD ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN  
TO THE SURFACE WITH WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 TO 45 MPH WITH THE  
HIGHEST GUSTS BEING FOUND ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AS  
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FUNNEL UP LAKE ERIE. THE SUNSHINE AND NARROW  
CORRIDOR OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL PUSH  
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS NORTH OF  
THE FINGER LAKES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 60S THANKS TO DOWNSLOPING.  
 
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS INTO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK  
BY MID-AFTERNOON AND RAPIDLY MARCH ACROSS THE FORECAST  
AREA...EXITING THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS BEING  
DRIVEN BY AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET MAX DROPPING ACROSS  
THE GREAT LAKES AND ACCOMPANYING UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTHER  
ONTARIO. THE CORE OF THE JET IS PROGGED TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER  
WESTERN NEW YORK...PLACING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN THE FAVORABLE LEFT  
EXIT REGION OF THE JET. INDEED MODEL PROGS PLACES THE SHARPEST DPVA  
ALOFT OVER THIS REGION ALONG WITH THE NOMINAL PACIFIC MOISTURE THAT  
HAS MANAGED TO MAKE IT ACROSS THE CONTINENT. HENCE...EXPECT THE  
FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE BULK OF WESTERN NEW YORK TO BE LARGELY  
DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE SHOWERS WILL  
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. IN  
FACT..GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON HEATING AND STRONG SYNOPTIC  
FORCING COULD GENERATE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS  
WELL. ELSEWHERE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LARGELY CONSIST OF A PERIOD  
OF ENHANCED CLOUD COVER FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT/FALLING  
TEMPERATURES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  
 
EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL CLEARING THIS EVENING BEFORE  
WESTERLY WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION BEGIN TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT  
CLOUD COVER DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES. ONCE AGAIN...THE DEARTH OF  
MOISTURE ALOFT SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN CLOUDINESS EAST OF LAKE  
ERIE...HOWEVER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THE COMBINATION OF LONGER  
DOWN-LAKE FETCH...SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR ALOFT...AND MOIST IMPORTANTLY  
PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW DROPPING ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY  
WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS  
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE LATER TONIGHT. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO  
FALL INTO THE 40S TONIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION IS MODERATED BY ONSHORE  
FLOW FROM THE STILL RELATIVELY WARM LAKES AND SUBSEQUENT CLOUD COVER.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
ON SUNDAY...A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL MEANDER ITS  
WAY EASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE A COOL WESTERLY TO  
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES  
REGION. A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF THE  
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL ACT IN CONCERT WITH LAKE  
AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT TO BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO AREAS  
EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE MORNING...FOR  
WHICH POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO CATEGORICAL GIVEN THE FAVORABLE  
SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE SETUP. AFTER THAT TIME...INCREASING  
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND IN  
CONJUNCTION WITH BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD RESULT IN  
THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND BEING INCREASINGLY DRIVEN MORE  
BY LAKE AND OROGRAPHIC PROCESSES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE  
EVENTUALLY DYING OUT ALTOGETHER SUNDAY NIGHT.  
 
ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY BE DRY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT  
WITH JUST A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND  
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF SHOWERS. EXPECT A  
BREEZY DAY ON SUNDAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF GOOD MECHANICAL MIXING  
AND 850 MB TEMPS OF ZERO TO -2C YIELDING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID  
50S IN MOST PLACES...FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING WINDS AND TEMPS  
DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.  
 
DURING MONDAY...THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST  
INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND...WHILE DEVELOPING COMPLEX LOW  
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES PUSHES ITS ATTENDANT WARM  
FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION. AT THIS JUNCTURE...EXPECT THIS LATTER  
FEATURE TO APPROACH SLOWLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A DRY DAY...THOUGH  
THE OVERALL WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A GENERAL  
WEST TO EAST INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER TIME...PARTICULARLY DURING  
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN SPITE OF THIS INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...OUR  
AIRMASS SHOULD WARM ENOUGH TO PUSH TEMPERATURES TO AROUND THE 60  
DEGREE MARK ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REGION SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...  
WHILE THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD REMAIN COOLER WITH HIGHS REMAINING  
CONFINED TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.  
 
MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...THE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN WHILE  
BODILY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE...AND IN  
THE PROCESS WILL DRIVE ITS WARM FRONT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR  
REGION. COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF  
A DEVELOPING 30-35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL  
PROBABLY BRING AT LEAST A LOWER-END RISK FOR SOME SHOWERS AS IT  
TRAVERSES THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...FOR WHICH SOME  
CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN PLAY. TEMPERATURE-WISE...THE OVERALL WARM AIR  
ADVECTION REGIME AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN MONDAY  
NIGHT BEING NOTICEABLY MILDER COMPARED TO ITS PREDECESSOR...WITH  
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE MID  
AND POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 50S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF FAR WESTERN  
NEW YORK.  
 
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT...WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL  
NEW YORK APPEARS AS IF IT WILL BE ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF  
THE DEEPENING LOW THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS  
OF TUESDAY. AFTER THAT TIME...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD  
APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES  
GENERALLY TRENDING A BIT SLOWER AGAIN WITH THE 00Z/25 CYCLE...WHILE  
ALSO STILL EXHIBITING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF  
THE FRONT. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PASSAGE OF  
THE FRONT A LITTLE BIT FROM OUR PREVIOUS CONTINUITY...WHILE ALSO  
KEEPING SHOWER CHANCES CONFINED TO THE CHANCE RANGE GIVEN THE  
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN ITS TIMING.  
 
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...THESE LOOK AS IF THEY MAY REALLY SOAR  
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ON TUESDAY. WITH 925 MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO AS  
HIGH AS +14C TO +18C IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY  
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AT THIS POINT FEEL THAT HIGHS SHOULD REACH TO  
AROUND 70 OR SO ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND TO THE LOWER TO EVEN  
MID 70S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. SHOULD SUCH READINGS ACTUALLY COME TO  
FRUITION...THE RECORD HIGHS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER FOR OCTOBER  
28TH (74/1946 AND 76/1984 RESPECTIVELY) COULD BE CLOSELY  
APPROACHED...WHILE WATERTOWN'S RECORD HIGH (75/1984) WOULD BE MORE  
LIKELY TO REMAIN SAFE. AFTER THAT...READINGS SHOULD FALL BACK INTO  
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE  
TUESDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY NIGHT'S COLD FRONT...BROAD LARGE-SCALE  
TROUGHING AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED  
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE  
WEEK. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...THIS WILL RESULT IN A  
NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH READINGS  
EVENTUALLY FALLING BACK BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WORK  
WEEK. MORE SPECIFICALLY...DAYTIME HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE MID TO  
UPPER 50S ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY DROP BACK TO THE MID AND UPPER  
40S BY FRIDAY...WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS PULL BACK TO THE MID 30S TO  
LOWER 40S.  
 
AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MOST AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE MAINLY  
DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH JUST SOME NUISANCE  
WEAK LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS FOUND EAST/EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE  
LAKES. AFTER THIS...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL  
AGREEMENT ON SOME SEMBLANCE OF ANOTHER WEAK SYNOPTIC-SCALE SYSTEM  
AFFECTING OUR REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH THE DETAILS VARY  
FROM ONE PACKAGE TO THE NEXT. NONETHELESS...THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE  
INTO A RENEWED GENERAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN TIME FOR THURSDAY NIGHT  
AND FRIDAY...FOR WHICH SOME BROADBRUSH LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN  
PLAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING  
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL  
INCREASE THROUGH THE LAKE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS STRONGER  
WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KT WITH  
THE STRONGEST GUSTS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AS WINDS  
FUNNEL UP LAKE ERIE.  
 
THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AROUND 18Z AND  
RAPIDLY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA...EXITING THE NORTH COUNTRY AROUND  
00Z SUN. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LARGELY BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF  
WESTERN NEW YORK WITH PASSAGE BEING NOTED MAINLY BY THICKENING  
CLOUDS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS FOLLOWED BY A SUBTLE WESTERLY WIND  
SHIFT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE STRONGER  
SYNOPTIC LIFT AND NOMINALLY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF  
SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN FACT GIVEN THE TIMING  
OF FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH  
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...HOWEVER CHANCES  
ARE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT LEAVING OUT OF THE TAF AT  
KART...PARTICULARLY AS BETTER CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN  
TOWARDS KGTB.  
 
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO  
PERSIST THROUGH 00-03Z AS COLD AIR ADVECTS ACROSS THE REGION. CIGS  
SHOULD SCATTER OUT FOR A TIME BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING  
BEFORE COLD ADVECTION GENERATES LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT  
WITH VFR CIGS DEVELOPING EAST OF THE LAKES. EAST OF LAKE  
ONTARIO...LONGER DOWN-LAKE FETCH COMBINED WITH ANOTHER WEAKER  
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS  
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT AREAS OF MVFR EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF  
LAKE ONTARIO WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.  
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.  
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.  
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF  
THE LAKES.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
WINDS WILL FRESHEN OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY AS A COLD FRONT  
OVER MICHIGAN WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  
WINDS WILL INITIALLY INCREASE ACROSS LAKE ERIE WHERE A RELATIVELY  
TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ENCOURAGE WINDS  
TO REACH 30 KNOTS...WITH SOME GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE BY LATE  
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS LONGER TO INCREASE ON LAKE  
ONTARIO...ESPECIALLY EAST OF ROCHESTER.  
 
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST WITH  
HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAINING IN PLACE. THIS  
WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE ON LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS  
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE EASTERN HALF.  
 
THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER BOTH LAKES ERIE AND  
ONTARIO ON SUNDAY...THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION  
SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS  
AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL BE FOUND ON BOTH LAKES MONDAY AS THE SFC  
RIDGE PASSES.  
 

 
   
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NY...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR  
LEZ020.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM  
EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ043>045.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ042.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...RSH/WOOD  
NEAR TERM...WOOD  
SHORT TERM...JJR  
LONG TERM...JJR  
AVIATION...WOOD  
MARINE...RSH  
 
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