453  
FXUS61 KBUF 041503  
AFDBUF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY  
1103 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A  
THUNDERSTORM TO AREAS MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF BUFFALO...ROCHESTER...  
AND WATERTOWN TODAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN THIS EVENING AND LAST  
THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THE  
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY  
NIGHT.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM EARLIER THIS  
MORNING HAS EXITED WELL TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. FOR THE REST OF  
TODAY...EXPECT A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY DRAPED  
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NY. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT  
AMONG VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE THAT THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM  
ACTIVITY WILL REDEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE MOVE  
ACROSS THE REGION AIDED BY DAYTIME HEATING...WEAK INSTABILITY  
/500 TO 1000 J/KG/ AND 25 TO 30 KNOTS OF SHEAR. MOST OF THE SHOWER  
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECT TO FOCUS ALONG THIS WEAK  
BOUNDARY EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND WELL INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN  
TIER...GENESEE VALLEY AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.  
 
TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING ANY LINGER SHOWER OR  
THUNDERTORM ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL  
BUILD BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OUTSIDE  
OF A A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE GOOD CONDITIONS FOR  
THOSE PLANNING TO VIEW FIREWORKS THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE  
SEASONABLE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S. SOME PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY  
IN THE TYPICAL RIVER VALLEYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR REGION TO START THE TIME PERIOD  
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TO OFF THE NORTHEAST COASTLINE BY  
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTROL MUCH OF THE WEATHER  
PARAMETERS THIS TIME PERIOD. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND  
MONDAY...WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  
 
SUNNY SKIES WILL BRING SUNDAY'S TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S AND  
LOWER 80S. WARMEST AREAS WILL BE THE VALLEYS OF THE GENESEE AND  
ALLEGANY RIVERS...WHILE COOLEST AREAS WILL BE NEAR THE LAKE SHORES.  
IT SHOULD BE THE FIRST DRY SUNDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA SINCE MAY  
24TH.  
 
SPEAKING OF MAY...TEMPERATURES MONDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST SINCE  
MAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA WILL WARM TO +16 TO +18C...AND  
WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WE SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON  
HIGHS SURGE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH A SPOT 90 IN THE  
GENESEE VALLEY. A FEW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPILL ACROSS FAR WNY  
LATER MONDAY...AS MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE DEPARTING  
SURFACE HIGH AND THE NEARING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF LOW  
PRESSURE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT  
WITHIN A CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DROP ONLY INTO THE 60S  
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY REMAINING AT ONLY 70F FOR A LOW. THERE  
MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...AND  
WILL CARRY JUST LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THIS LIGHT ACTIVITY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
ON TUESDAY AS THE PARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS NORTH OF THE  
FORECAST AREA IT WILL FORCE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR  
NORTH OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC. THIS LOW HOWEVER WILL DRAG A COLD  
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA WITH EITHER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS...OR INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR AN MCS TRACKING OUT OF  
MICHIGAN / MIDWEST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE TIMING OF WHICH  
REMAINS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS LEAD TIME. STILL TEMPERATURES  
WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN THE LOW 80S ON TUESDAY WITH 850 MB  
TEMPERATURES SURGING TO AROUND +17C AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH  
HEATING WILL BE LIMITED BY INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND STORMS.  
 
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH  
FRIDAY... THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH  
BELOW NORMAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO END THE WORK WEEK.  
 
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW  
NORMAL... AS VARIOUS FORECAST MODELS DISAGREE ON THE TIMING A  
SHORTWAVE THAT COULD BRING INCREASED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES  
TO ONE OF THE DAY OF THE WEEKEND. WHILE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY COULD  
SEE SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY... THE WEEKEND LOOKS FAR  
FROM A WASHOUT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS  
ALL THE SHOWER ACTIVIY HAS MOVED WELL TO THE EAST OF THE REGION THIS  
MORNING. VFR FLIGHT CONDTIONS IS EXPECTED AT ALL TAFF SITES THROUGH  
THE REST OF THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER  
17Z...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ALONG A BOUNDARY WELL  
INLAND OF THE LAKES...WITH A SMALL CHANCE THESE WILL BRIEFLY IMPACT  
ART/ROC/JHW. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO  
TONIGHT. EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME  
PATCHY RADIATION FOG MAY DEVELOP AT JHW.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.  
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT  
LAKES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL  
GENERALLY RESULT IN RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES...WITH  
LOCAL LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NY...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...AR/APFFEL  
NEAR TERM...AR/APFFEL  
SHORT TERM...THOMAS  
LONG TERM...CHURCH/THOMAS  
AVIATION...AR/APFFEL  
MARINE...AR/APFFEL/THOMAS  
 
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