920
FXUS61 KBUF 072018
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
318 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL KEEP A SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG WITH A
RETURN TO SEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
300 PM UPDATE...WE WILL CLOSE OUT OUR NICEST DAY IN A MONTH WITH
SUNSHINE AND BREEZY MILD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS INTO L-M 60S THROUGH
SUNSET. THE FINE WX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH JUST A
MINOR GLITCH OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK MID LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT SLIDE
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BOTH NAM AND
GFS MODELS SHOW A PRONOUNCED INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
THIS FEATURE DURING THE EARLY AND MID EVENING...BUT ABSOLUTELY
NOTHING SHOWING UPSTREAM IN MICHIGAN YET SO THIS WOULD TEND TO
DEVELOP OVER US RATHER THAN ADVECT IN AND SUSPECT THE MODELS MAY BE
OVERDOING IT A BIT. NONETHELESS WITH WINDS LIGHTENING UP
SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER DARK LEADING TO DECOUPLING OF LOWER LEVELS ALONG
WITH SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION JUST OFF THE DECK...WILL SHOW A PERIOD
OF MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE GRIDS STARTING AFTER ABOUT 01Z
AND CONTINUING UNTIL NEAR DAYBREAK BUT NO CHANCE OF ANY RAIN. TEMPS
WILL FALL QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING AND LEVEL OFF...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND FOLLOWED.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER BEAUTY...ALTHOUGH WE MAY START OFF WITH
SOME LOW CLOUD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES...WHICH WILL
BURN OFF DURING THE MORNING. SFC RIDGE PASSES RIGHT OVER OR JUST TO
OUR SOUTH WHICH WILL RESULT IN MUCH LIGHTER WINDS THAN TODAY...AND
WITH 850 MB TEMPS A DEG OR TWO WARMER (8-11C)...WE SHOULD EASILY
REACH L-M 60S ONCE AGAIN ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST...U50S
E OF LK ONTARIO. A BIT OF A WARM FRONT WILL GROW EAST ACROSS SRN
MICH IN AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL TEND TO SHIFT OUR WINDS INTO E-NE
LATER IN THE DAY SO IT MAY TURN COOLER S OF LK ONTARIO DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ALL IN ALL THOUGH...ANOTHER UNUSUALLY NICE NOVEMBER DAY
IN STORE.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
DURING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...OUR AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE SITUATED JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...AND A WEAK COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE WAVE THAT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY
REMAINING FAR ENOUGH TO OUR NORTH TO KEEP ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...THIS WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUATION OF OUR CURRENT SPELL OF DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. IN FACT...MONDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THIS
STRETCH...AS 925 MB/850 MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO +12 TO +13C.
IN THE PRESENCE OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...SUCH
READINGS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S AWAY
FROM ANY LAKE INFLUENCES...WITH SOME OF OUR NORMALLY WARMER SPOTS IN
THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES LIKELY FLIRTING WITH THE 70
DEGREE MARK. DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...A GOOD
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE OFF THE NOW 50-DEGREE LAKE WATERS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS A BIT COOLER...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 60S IN
THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS...STILL PRETTY NICE FOR THE 9TH OF
NOVEMBER.
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE THEN DIVERGES MARKEDLY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM AS IT WORKS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
THE 12Z NAM IS A FAST AND RELATIVELY DRY OUTLIER WITH THE COLD
FROPA...MOVING IT QUICKLY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGING THEN
RAPIDLY BUILDING BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. AT THE OPPOSITE
EXTREME IS THE 12Z GFS...WHICH SHOWS A MUCH STRONGER AND UNUSUALLY
DEEP SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH...WHICH INITIALLY LEADS TO A MUCH
SLOWER FROPA ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SECONDARY COASTAL
CYCLOGENESIS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF AND
LINGERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN BETWEEN ARE THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM...WHICH OFFER A FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY...THEN ARE MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS TUESDAY
NIGHT...INDICATING NO SECONDARY COASTAL DEVELOPMENT AND CONSEQUENTLY
A MUCH QUICKER END TO THE PRECIP.
GIVEN THAT THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE BOTH EXTREME OUTLIERS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AT THIS POINT WILL ELECT
TO FOLLOW THE MIDDLE PATH OF ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS DURING THIS
PERIOD...WHICH HAVE GENERALLY BEEN MORE CONSISTENT AND HAVE GOOD
SUPPORT FROM BOTH HPC AND EXISTING CONTINUITY. AS A RESULT...WILL
BRING THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER CHANCES INTO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT...THEN SAG THESE
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH POPS CAPPED IN THE MID CHANCE
RANGE FOR NOW GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED MODEL DISCREPANCIES SEEN IN
THIS PERIOD. THEN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
POPS FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PULLS OFF TO THE
EAST...WITH THE PRECIP POSSIBLY ENDING AS A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
BOUNDARY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS ON
WEDNESDAY...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME RATHER ZONAL ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WHILE BROAD
TROUGHING GRADUALLY OVERSPREADS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE NATION.
THIS OVERALL PATTERN SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF TEMPERATURES AROUND OR
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOOKING AT THE FORECAST DETAILS...WEDNESDAY SHOULD START OUT FAIRLY
CLOUDY WITH THE AREA UNDER A GENERAL NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE/UPPER TROUGHS...THOUGH THIS SHOULD
TEND TO BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE MORNING AND DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES EASTWARD FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. GIVEN THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER TO START THE
DAY AND MODEL TRENDS TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...HAVE ELECTED
TO TRIM BACK HIGHS A CATEGORY OR SO FROM CONTINUITY ON WEDNESDAY...
WITH MOST LOCATIONS NOW LIKELY TO SEE READINGS TOP OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.
AFTER CRESTING OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH WILL THEN GRADUALLY SETTLE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP FAIR AND DRY WEATHER OVER OUR AREA THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR BOTH DAYS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF
SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING RIDGE. AS THIS HIGH RECEDES FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...IT WILL ALLOW THE NEXT WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO WORK INTO THE AREA...WHICH WILL BE COVERED WITH LOW CHANCE
POPS AT THIS DISTANT VANTAGE POINT.
AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET...IN THE
40-45 KT RANGE FOR SEVERAL HOURS...BUT IT WILL NOT MIX TO THE
SURFACE SO LLWS WILL BE NOTED AT ALL TERMINALS...STARTING AROUND 23Z
AT THE KBUF/KIAG/KJHW SITES...00Z AT KROC AND 02Z AT KART...LASTING
SIX HOURS AT EACH SITE. WE ALSO EXPECT A PERIOD OF BKN CIGS WITH AND
IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FROPA...PREDOMINANTLY ABOVE 3000 FT...WITH
SOME LOWERING OF CIGS TO MVFR POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. SKIES CLEAR
AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING...VFR RESUMES BY 13-14Z...WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR/MVFR CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.
MARINE
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
ALONG THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORES AS WELL AS OVER THE LAKE ONTARIO
NEARSHORES NORTH OF MEXICO BAY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH RAPIDLY THIS EVENING...BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE FLAGS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT ON LAKE ERIE AND UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY ON LAKE ONTARIO DUE TO
RESIDUAL WAVE ACTION. LOOK FOR MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ON SUNDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA...WITH A TENDENCY FOR
EASTERLIES TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ045.
SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...SFM
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...SFM
MARINE...SFM
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