196  
FXUS61 KOKX 230225  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
1025 PM EDT FRI SEP 22 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
POST TROPICAL CYCLONE JOSE WILL MEANDER AND WEAKEN TO THE SOUTHEAST  
OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS  
CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, AND EXTENDS INTO THE  
NORTHEAST, INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE,  
HURRICANE MARIA TRACKS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST. A COLD  
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTHWEST NEXT FRIDAY. PLEASE REFER  
TO NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER PRODUCTS FOR MORE DETAILS ON MARIA.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
 
 
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.  
 
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW  
POINT TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND NEAR  
TERM FORECAST TRENDS.  
 
UPPER LEVELS STILL EXHIBIT THE PERSISTENT PATTERN OF A STRONG HIGH  
AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN US. UPPER JET REMAINS DISPLACED  
WELL NORTH INTO INTERIOR SE CANADA.  
 
FOR TONIGHT, THE WEAKENING POST TROPICAL CYCLONE JOSE WILL KEEP CLOUDS  
AND SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF LONG ISLAND AND  
SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT. OTHERWISE, MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.  
NORTH WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE EVENING AND  
JUST REMAIN GUSTY AT THE COAST LATE TONIGHT.  
 
A COMBINATION OF MAV/MET/NAM12/GMOS WAS USED FOR MIN TEMPERATURES  
TONIGHT. LOWERED MIN TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES ACROSS FAR EASTERN LONG  
ISLAND FOR LATE TONIGHT. LOOKING AT A RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S  
TO UPPER 60S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
UPPER LEVELS STILL EXHIBIT THE PERSISTENT PATTERN OF A STRONG  
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN US SATURDAY AND SATURDAY  
NIGHT. UPPER JET REMAINS DISPLACED WELL NORTH INTO INTERIOR SE  
CANADA.  
 
FOR SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH CLOSER TO THE REGION  
AND ALONG WITH IT, BRING AN INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE. JOSE IS  
FORECAST TO FURTHER WEAKEN.  
 
A DRY DAY IS FORECAST WITH MORE SUN AS CLOUDS WILL BE LESS THAN  
THE PRIOR DAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL FURTHER DECREASE  
ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LOWER AS A RESULT.  
 
THE WARMER MAV WAS PREFERRED FOR TEMPERATURES DUE TO RECENT  
BETTER PERFORMANCE. A COMBINATION OF MAV AND GMOS WAS USED FOR  
MAX TEMPERATURES, YIELDING A RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER  
80S.  
 
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN A LITTLE MORE WITH  
CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE. FURTHER WEAKENING OF JOSE WILL CREATE AN  
EVEN WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH WINDS LIKEWISE DIMINISHING.  
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL RESULT IN LOWER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES  
SATURDAY NIGHT. USED RELATIVELY COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY  
NIGHT LOWS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WITH A  
STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN STATES, WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE  
WESTERN STATES, THAT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF  
NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL  
NORMALS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF TYING OR BREAKING RECORD HIGHS  
FOR SUNDAY. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION. MEANWHILE,  
HURRICANE MARIA WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTH, EAST OF THE EASTERN  
SEABOARD, THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS POST  
TROPICAL JOSE REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD AND DISSIPATES SUNDAY.  
REFER TO THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER  
FOR THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION ON JOSE AND MARIA.  
 
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL TRANSITION MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS A  
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION AND THEN  
MOVES EAST AS THE EASTERN RIDGE WEAKENS. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO  
THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE  
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH  
THE TIMING OF THE DIGGING TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE  
AREA. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT  
AND PORTIONS OF THE REGION MAY BE BRUSHED WITH THE OUTER BANDS OF  
SHOWERS FROM MARIA LATE IN THE WEEK. SO, WILL HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT  
CHANCE PROBABILITIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  
 
WEAK RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD TO THE WEST THURSDAY INTO NEXT FRIDAY.  
 
DUE TO LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM BOTH JOSE AND MARIA, THERE WILL BE A  
PROLONGED PERIOD OF ROUGH SURF AT THE OCEAN BEACHES, WITH THE  
LIKELIHOOD OF A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
REMNANTS OF JOSE WILL MEANDER AND WEAKEN OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW  
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH SATURDAY.  
 
VFR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, EXCEPT EASTERN TERMINALS. KGON SHOULD  
OBSERVE MVFR CIGS MOST OF THE NIGHT, LESS THAN 2 KFT. KISP AND KBDR  
NEED TO BE WATCHED. FEW CLOUDS SATURDAY ALL TERMINALS.  
 
N WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 10 TO PERHAPS 15 KT, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
OVERNIGHT ACROSS NYC METRO AND EASTERN TERMINALS. STRONGEST WINDS AT  
KGON WITH GUSTS WELL IN THE 20S.  
 
N WINDS BEGIN TO LIGHTEN SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON.  
   
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
 
   
SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT
 
VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.   
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
 
MVFR IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS EXPIRED AT 6  
PM.  
 
AN SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN SOUND AND PECONIC AND GARDINERS  
BAYS UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY AND FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS  
UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY.  
 
LONG PERIOD SE SWELLS WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN  
COASTAL WATERS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS WINDS DECREASE.  
 
LONG PERIOD SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE OCEAN WATERS SUNDAY  
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK, AND AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH  
THE PERIOD. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS WINDS AND GUSTS  
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GUSTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY AND  
THURSDAY NIGHT MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ACROSS ALL THE  
FORECAST WATERS.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
POST TROPICAL CYCLONE JOSE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY A COUPLE  
HUNDRED MILES SE OF EASTERN LONG ISLAND, WITH EKMAN FORCING KEEPING  
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS ALONG THE COAST DESPITE OFFSHORE WINDS.  
 
WATER LEVELS SHOULD GRADUALLY DROP TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. HISTORICALLY,  
GUIDANCE IS TOO FAST TO BRING DOWN WATER LEVELS IN THE BACK SHORE  
BAYS WHEN THERE IS A PERSISTENT ONSHORE LONG PERIOD SWELL, SO HAVE  
CONTINUED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM BROOKLYN THROUGH SOUTHWEST  
SUFFOLK COUNTY THROUGH TONIGHTS HIGH TIDE. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL  
THAT THERE COULD BE SOME VERY LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING AT THE MOST  
VULNERABLE SOUTH SHORE BAY LOCALES SATURDAY MORNING. A COASTAL FLOOD  
STATEMENT WAS ISSUED FOR THIS.  
 
ROUGH SURF WILL ALSO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT DUNE EROSION  
FROM THIS POINT ON SHOULD BE LOCALIZED.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
THE FOLLOWING ARE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY  
SEPTEMBER 24, 2017 ALONG WITH THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURE.  
 
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURE  
----------------------------- -------------------------  
CENTRAL PARK........89 (1959) 89  
LAGUARDIA...........89 (1959) 88  
KENNEDY.............88 (1970) 87  
ISLIP...............83 (2009) 86  
NEWARK..............92 (1959) 90  
BRIDGEPORT..........87 (1959) 84  
 
THE FOLLOWING ARE RECORD MAXIMUM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY  
SEPTEMBER 24, 2017 ALONG WITH THE FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE.  
 
RECORD MAX MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE  
------------------------------ ----------------------------  
CENTRAL PARK........74 (1970) 70  
LAGUARDIA...........73 (1970) 71  
KENNEDY.............71 (1970) 69  
ISLIP...............69 (1970) 65  
NEWARK..............74 (1970) 68  
BRIDGEPORT..........71 (2011) 66  
 

 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ075-080-  
178-179.  
NJ...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-340.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...JM/MET  
NEAR TERM...GC  
SHORT TERM...JM  
LONG TERM...MET  
AVIATION...PW  
MARINE...GC/JM/MET  
HYDROLOGY...JM/MET  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...  
CLIMATE...  
 
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