031  
FXUS61 KOKX 221123  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
723 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT...REMAINING  
IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT LATEST  
OBSERVATIONS.  
 
OTHERWISE...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE CWA THIS  
MORNING AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PIVOTS EAST THROUGH THE  
DAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THEN QUICKLY BUILDS IN FROM THE  
WEST TODAY.  
 
WITH THE SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN...SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH JUST  
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT  
COUPLED WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE HIGH APPROACHES  
WILL LEND TO GUSTY WINDS TODAY...20-25MPH AT THE HIGHEST THIS  
AFTERNOON.  
 
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH A GENERAL  
MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND USED. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND A  
COOL NW FLOW...HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.  
 
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT ATLANTIC OCEAN  
FACING BEACHES MAINLY DUE TO A SWELL FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
 
 
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER  
THE AREA. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPS WILL  
BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND  
RANGE TO THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE NYC METRO...QUITE BELOW NORMAL FOR  
THIS TIME OF YEAR.  
 
EVEN WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON  
TUESDAY...LITTLE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE TO PROVIDE FOR MANY CLOUDS.  
EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT NW-N FLOW.  
 
MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND AGAIN WORKED WELL FOR TEMPS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY  
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND  
WEDNESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT  
AND THURSDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH FAIR AND DRY  
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  
 
THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO HINT AT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG  
ISLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...THINKING THE HIGH  
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS  
LOW SOUTH OF THE REGION.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF BACK OVER THE REGION FOR THE END  
OF THE WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.  
 
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH  
THURSDAY...THEN RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND  
WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST  
THROUGH TONIGHT.  
 
WNW WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER DAYBREAK WITH ISOLD  
GUSTS TO 30KT. WINDS GENERALLY WILL WAVER BETWEEN 290 AND 320 MAG  
DURING THE DAY. WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS  
EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT NW AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
 
VFR TODAY WITH SCT 3.5-4.5 KFT CU THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY BKN AT  
WESTERN TERMINALS. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT.  
 
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...  
 
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN  
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)  
 
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST  
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...VEER TO THE RIGHT OF  
310 MAG BY MID MORNING...THEN BACK TO LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS  
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH.  
 
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST  
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN VEER TO THE RIGHT OF  
310 MAG BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  
 
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST  
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...VEER TO THE RIGHT OF  
310 MAG BY MID MORNING...THEN BACK TO LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS  
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH.  
 
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES  
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.  
 
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.  
 
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.  
 
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.  
   
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI
 
   
TUE
 
VFR WITH LGT WINDS.   
WED
 
MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000FT POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS 5-15KT.   
THU AND FRI
 
VFR. MODERATE NE/N FLOW POSSIBLE. LOW PROB OF MVFR  
CIGS IN LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN TERMINALS...DEPENDING ON HOW  
FAR NORTH COASTAL LOW TRACKS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
LONG PERIOD SE SWELLS HAVE QUICKLY BUILT TO 5 TO 8 FT THIS MORNING  
WITH OCEAN SEAS EXPECTED TO RUNNING 6-9 FT INTO THE AFTERNOON AS  
AN OFFSHORE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.  
WIND AND GUSTS TO 25KT ARE ALSO EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NO  
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING SCA IN PLACE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
TO 25 KT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE OTHER WATERS BUT CONFIDENCE TOO  
LOW TO ISSUE A SCA.  
 
SEAS DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS AND WAVES FALLING BELOW  
SCA CRITERIA BY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW  
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE  
POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING WELL  
SOUTH OF OUR WATERS AND PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  
 
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE LOW.  
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND  
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD BUILD SEAS TO  
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HAVE UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH BY A LITTLE DUE TO THE  
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS EVENT.  
 
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...BC/LN  
NEAR TERM...BC/LN  
SHORT TERM...LN  
LONG TERM...BC  
AVIATION...NV  
MARINE...BC/LN  
HYDROLOGY...LN  
 
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