490  
FXUS61 KOKX 171429  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
1029 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY  
NIGHT. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE REGION  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PUSHES TO THE EAST DURING THE  
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...THEN LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE NORTHEAST  
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO  
REFLECT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS/TRENDS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE  
ON CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING EAST AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...WHICH  
MAY MOVE INTO PORTIONTS OF THE AREA. NOT QUITE READY TO INCREASE  
CLOUD COVER TOO MUCH.  
 
OTHERWISE...WEAK...BUT DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE AREA  
TODAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL LIMITING MIXING TO AROUND  
900-875 HPA. SO HAVE USED MIXING DOWN FROM THERE...BLENDED WITH  
NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FOR TODAY.  
EXPECT READINGS TO BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
 
 
WEAK RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...THEN A NORTHERN STREAM  
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FRIDAY. GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL  
MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECT TO SEE INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS ON  
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.  
 
FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER  
TEMPERATURES - WITH VALUES 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FORECAST.  
 
FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM  
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-900 HPA PER BUFKIT  
SOUNDINGS. EXPECT READINGS TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
00Z/17 MODEL SUITE CONTINUING TO TREND TO THE DRIER SIDE NOW WITH  
WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE AND THE APPROACHING COLD  
FRONT WEAKENING/DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE COAST. UPPER LEVEL  
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH SAT...BUT LOOKS TO KEEP THE MAIN AREA OF  
FORCING TO THE NORTH. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH THE NAM AND GFS  
REMAIN VERY DRY...WITH ONLY LIGHT MOISTENING IN THE LOWER LEVELS IN  
RESPONSE TO THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FRIDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE TAPERED  
POPS BACK FRI NIGHT TO SLIGHT CHANCE REMAINING GENERALLY  
OFFSHORE...AND JUST TOUCHING THE EASTERN END OF LONG  
ISLAND...WHILE REMOVING POPS THEN ON SAT. HIGH PRESSURE REFORMS  
AND TAKES HOLD OF THE AREA THEN SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT.  
PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP  
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE WEEKEND. ZONAL FLOW RETURNS BRIEFLY  
MONDAY...KEEPING THE DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE.  
 
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCE WITH A COLD  
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE  
PASSING TO THE EAST TUES-WED. HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS MON  
NIGHT...WITH ONLY INCLUDING SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS  
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING A VORTICITY MAXIMUM THROUGH CENTRAL  
NY. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TUES-TUES NIGHT WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH  
ALOFT AND THE COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. COULD SEE LINGERING  
PRECIPITATION INTO WED MORNING AS THE FRONT MERGES WITH THE  
PASSING LOW OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THE WAKE WHILE  
BROAD RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER  
OF WED AND THURS.  
 
WILL SEE INCREASING TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A  
STRONG SURGE OF WAA WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW.  
DOWNSLOPING SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPS TO AROUND NORMAL  
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE  
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MOVES TOWARDS THE CANADIAN  
MARITIMES DURING THE DAY TODAY.  
 
E WINDS 10-15 KT WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND  
THEN WILL DIMINISH TO 8-12 KT AFT 03Z FRIDAY.  
 
MAINLY VFR. WATCHING AREAS OF STRATUS OFF LONG ISLAND AND EAST OF NANTUCKET  
FOR ANY SIGNS OF MOVING INLAND. WILL INTRODUCE MVFR CIGS IN THE  
TAFS BECAUSE OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFT 08Z FRIDAY BUT  
MAY BE EARLIER DEPENDING ON TRENDS. CIGS SHOULD SCOUR OUT LATE FRIDAY  
MORNING.  
 
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...  
 
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN  
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)  
 
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.  
WINDS 15-20 KT...AND WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 090-110 MAG AFT  
19Z. WATCHING STRATUS OFFSHORE AND MAY AMEND FOR MVFR CIGS THIS  
AFTERNOON.  
 
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.  
WINDS 15-20 KT...AND WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 090-110 MAG AFT 19Z.  
 
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.  
WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 090-110 MAG AFT 19Z.  
 
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES  
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.  
 
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.  
WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 120-140 MAG THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.  
WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 120-140 MAG THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.  
WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 090-110 MAG AFT 19Z. WINDS INCREASE TO 20  
KT THIS AFTERNOON. WATCHING STRATUS OFFSHORE AND MAY AMEND FOR MVFR CIGS THIS  
AFTERNOON.  
   
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
 
   
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT
 
MVFR CIGS SCOUR OUT LATE FRIDAY MORNING.    
SATURDAY
 
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA.    
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY
 
VFR.   
MONDAY
 
VFR.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS  
EXPECTED TODAY. EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS ON FRIDAY  
DUE TO PERSISTENT SWELLS...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE  
COASTAL OCEAN ZONES THROUGH FRIDAY.  
 
GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE WATERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO  
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEING THE DOMINATING FEATURE AND ONLY  
MULTIPLE WEAK LOWS PASSING SE OF THE WATERS. SEAS INITIALLY  
AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN FRI NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO  
LESS THAN 5 FT BY SAT MORNING. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD BACK TO  
AROUND 5 FT SUNDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE FIRST  
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
WINDS AND SEAS BOTH INCREASE WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...RESULTING  
IN POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY  
NEXT WEEK.  
 
NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.  
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE  
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS  
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.  
 

 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ009>012.  
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ071-078>081-  
177-179.  
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR  
NYZ069-070.  
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ104-106-108.  
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR  
NJZ004-103-105-107.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-  
340-345.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/SEARS  
NEAR TERM...BC/MALOIT/SEARS  
SHORT TERM...MALOIT  
LONG TERM...SEARS  
AVIATION...IRD  
MARINE...MALOIT/SEARS  
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/SEARS  
CLIMATE...  
 
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