765  
FXUS61 KOKX 232209  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
609 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SUNDAY.  
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT  
APPROACHES THE AREA MONDAY AND CROSSES MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE  
RETURNS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW  
PRESSURE PASS THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH A COLD  
FRONT PASSING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
 
 
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH NORTHERN  
CONNECTICUT, ALONG WITH WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY, SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN AND  
SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT. EXPECTING THE STORMS TO LAST A COUPLE OF  
HOURS AND DIMINISHING AS STORMS MOVE INTO DRIER AIR.  
 
A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES IN  
SUFFOLK COUNTY NY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING.  
 
THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE NYC/NJ METRO AREA WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM THIS  
EVENING AS TEMPERATURES FALL SLOWLY THROUGH THE 90S.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR TODAY WERE TIED OR BROKEN AT...  
 
BRIDGEPORT SIKORSKY AIRPORT...A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 96 DEGREES  
WAS TIED AT BRIDGEPORT CT. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 96 SET IN 2011.  
 
ISLIP MACARTHUR AIRPORT...  
 
SCATTERED TSTMS MOVING SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT  
FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING  
THE LOCAL AREA. ALTHOUGH NOT IN THE UPDATED FORECAST, AN ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CT BETWEEN 8 PM AND 11  
PM.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, DAY TIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE  
FORECAST AROUND 6 TO 8 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DEW  
POINT TEMPERATURES FORECAST MAINLY 55-60 DEGREES, HEAT INDEX VALUES  
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 95 DEGREES. THEREFORE, A HEAT ADVISORY  
WILL NOT BE ISSUED FOR SUNDAY.  
 
MORNING LIGHT NW WINDS WILL BE REPLACED WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES,  
THE STRONGEST IN THE NY BIGHT WITH S WINDS 10-15 KT AFT 19Z/3 PM.  
 
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE, A WARM FRONT WILL  
APPROACH FROM THE SW. LOW LVL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE AN  
INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG IN SUBURBAN AND RURAL  
LOCATIONS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
BY THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE MOVING  
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NEARLY  
ZONAL FLOW, PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO MONDAY  
NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES  
WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES AND  
DEWPOINTS WILL BE INCREASING MONDAY AS THE REGION COMES UNDER THE  
INFLUENCE OF A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS AS A WARM FRONT PASSES MONDAY  
MORNING. WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
BE POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY. THE AREA DESTABILIZES AND BY THE AFTERNOON  
CAPE INCREASES TO AROUND 1000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES WILL BE AROUND  
-3. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE  
CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.  
DEPENDING ON TIMING AND THE POSSIBILITY OF EARLIER CONVECTION  
DESTABILIZATION MAY BECOME LIMITED.  
REGARDLESS, WITH THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS, HEAT INDICES WILL BE  
NEAR 105 BY THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY AND  
INTO NYC. SO AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED.  
 
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN WARM HOWEVER DRIER AIR MOVES IN  
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WITH THE SHORTWAVE NOT VERY DEEP AND PASSING  
TO THE NORTH, THE COLD FRONT DOES NOT MOVES TOO FAR SOUTH AND  
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. WAVES OF LOW  
PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THURSDAY AND  
FRIDAY WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH AS HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDS TO THE NORTH. TIMING IF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS UNCERTAIN  
AND MAY NOT MOVES THROUGH UNTIL SATURDAY. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME WILL  
HAVE SATURDAY DRY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH  
THE TAF PERIOD.  
 
W/WNW FLOW TODAY...WITH GUSTS 20-25KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS  
GENERALLY LEFT OF 310 MAG FOR NYC/NJ METRO TERMINALS...BUT COULD  
WAVER JUST TO THE RIGHT IN THE AFTERNOON FOR KLGA. COASTAL SEA  
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED. WINDS AND GUSTS DIMINISH IN  
THE EVENING...WITH LIGHT NW WINDS TONIGHT.  
 
ON SUNDAY, WINDS START OFF FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST, THEN  
GRADUALLY BECOME WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY AT  
THE COASTAL LOCATIONS AS AFTERNOON SEABREEZES DEVELOP. WINDS  
SPEEDS WILL BE BETWEEN 10-15KT.  
   
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
 
   
SUN AFTERNOON INTO SUN NGT
 
VFR. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES FOR  
COASTAL TERMINALS.   
MON
 
MAINLY VFR, EXCEPT MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED  
LATE DAY/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.   
TUE AND WED
 
VFR.   
THU
 
MAINLY VFR, EXCEPT MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED  
LATE DAY/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
WIND SPEEDS AND SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT  
ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS OF 25 KNOTS AND 5 FEET THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.  
 
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES LIKELY ON SUNDAY, AND HAVE TO MONITOR  
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW FROM SANDY HOOK TO FIRE  
ISLAND INLET SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS  
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS  
THROUGH THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.  
THE FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE WATERS WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE  
MOVING ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES  
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
NO RAIN IS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.  
 
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAINFALL, WITH LOCALLY  
UP TO ONE INCH, IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.  
 
DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THEN THERE IS THE  
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING  
THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ072>075-176-  
178.  
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY  
AFTERNOON FOR NYZ072>075-176-178.  
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ080-  
081.  
NJ...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ006-106-108.  
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY  
AFTERNOON FOR NJZ004-006-103>108.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...GC/MET  
NEAR TERM...GC/MET  
SHORT TERM...GC  
LONG TERM...MET  
AVIATION...BC  
MARINE...GC/MET  
HYDROLOGY...GC/MET  
 
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