449  
FXUS61 KOKX 280249  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
1049 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION  
OVERNIGHT AND THEN TRACK THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY AS THE COLD  
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST MONDAY  
NIGHT...SETTLING WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS  
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AGAIN  
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
 
 
PRE FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARD THE  
AREA AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH. THE ENVIRONMENT IN THE AREA HAS  
BECOME MORE STABLE...BOTH SURFACE BASED AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE.  
ALSO SHEAR HAS WEAKENED. BEST AREA APPEARS TO BE CENTRAL AND  
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. THINKING IS STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS AREA MOVES  
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET EXIT REGION  
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA. HAVE REMOVED THE GUSTY WIND AND HAIL  
FROM THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY.  
 
AS THE LOW TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO  
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL LIFT NE WITH  
BEST FORCING/MOISTURE/INSTABILITY LIFTING N AND E...BRINGING AN  
END TO THE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
 
 
SURFACE LOW TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...WITH PRE-FRONTAL  
TROUGH MOVING NORTH AND RELATIVELY DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTING IN.  
 
BREEZY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. CONSIDERABLE  
INSTABILITY CLOUD COVER AND DIURNAL SCT-NUM SHRA DEVELOPMENT  
LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH COLD POOL INSTABILITY AND DIURNAL  
HEATING...AS WELL AS ALONG AHEAD OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN  
AFT/EVE. GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR OFF HIGHER  
TERRAIN. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH HAZARDS  
IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  
 
FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA MON EVE WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS  
ADVECTING IN.  
 
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG  
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES DURING THE DAY MONDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
LINGERING CHC FOR PCPN OVER SOUTHERN CT/LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY  
FIRST HALF OF MON NIGHT AS SFC LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTH...DRAGGING ITS  
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. 12Z  
MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREEING THE BEST FORCING ALOFT ASSOCIATED  
WITH A PASSING VORT MAX SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...BUT  
MAY PUSH JUST SOUTH ENOUGH TO ASSIST IN PROLONGING ANY PCPN THAT  
DEVELOPED LATE IN THE DAY. BOTH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ON THE WEAKER  
SIDE BY 00Z TUES...SO LOOKING FOR MORE ISO-SCT SHOWERS WITH A LOW  
END CHC OF A TSTM. BY 06Z...PCPN SHOULD HAVE CLEARED THE AREA WITH  
ANY FORCING AT BOTH THE SFC AND ALOFT NOW EXITING THE AREA. PW  
VALUES WILL ALSO HAVE DROPPED BEHIND THE FRONT...SO ANY FLOODING  
THREAT WITH THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE DIMINISHED.  
 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH TUES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A CLOSED  
LOW HOVERING JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WITH MINIMAL  
PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT ALOFT...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH  
EAST...BUT THEN STALL OFFSHORE. IT SHOULD PUSH JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST  
TO HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...BUT WILL COME BACK  
INTO THE PICTURE FOR THE COMING WEEKEND. AS THE SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL MAINTAIN HOLD  
OF THE REGION THROUGH THURS. SHORTWAVE ROTATING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE  
OF THE TROUGH COULD TRIGGER AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM TUES AFTN OVER FAR  
NORTH AND WESTERN EDGES OF THE AREA...BUT WITH A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS  
MOVING IN...COULD VERY WELL END UP BEING A DRY DAY. THE NEXT MENTION  
OF PCPN COMES THURS AFTN WITH A RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE  
REGION...INJECTING IN A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIRMASS. THE CLOSED LOW  
ALOFT FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THOUGH A LONGWAVE TROUGH  
STILL WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US FOR THE END OF  
THE WEEK. THE PATTERN STILL BRINGS THROUGH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES  
THURS-FRI...EACH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHC IN TRIGGERING AN ISO SHOWER  
OR TSTM.  
 
LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT BY THIS WEEKEND...RIDING  
THE FRONT WHILE SLOWLY APPROACHING THE AREA. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS  
BRINGS THE SFC LOW NEAR THE TRI STATE AREA BY SUN MORNING. ENOUGH  
FORCING ALOFT ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD  
COMBINE WITH THE SFC LOW TO PRODUCE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS...ESP FOR  
LATER SAT THROUGH SUN.  
 
TEMPS REMAIN NEAR STEADY THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...A FEW DEGREES  
BELOW NORMAL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH  
DURING MONDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE TERMINALS MONDAY  
AFTERNOON.  
 
VFR. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES TOWARD 04Z.  
STORMS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND BEST CHANCE WILL BE FROM 05Z SOUTH  
AND WEST TO 09Z TO 12Z NORTH AND EAST.  
 
AS THE LOW PASSES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE  
OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTO  
CONNECTICUT.  
 
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND 10KT TO 15KT TONIGHT INCREASES MONDAY UP TO  
15KT TO 20KT...WITH GUSTS 25KT TO 30KT. WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST TO  
NORTHWEST AS THE LOW AND FRONT CROSS THE REGION MONDAY  
AFTERNOON.  
   
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUE THROUGH FRI
 
   
MON NIGHT-THU
 
VFR.   
FRI
 
VFR. ISO SHRA/TSTM.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT  
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. MARGINAL SCA WILL  
BUILD SLIGHTLY AND REMAIN IN THE 4 TO 7 FT RANGE TONIGHT INTO  
MONDAY ON THE OCEAN WATERS.  
 
MARGINAL SCA GUSTS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL NEARSHORE  
WATERS IN WAKE OF FRONT.  
 
SEAS ON THE OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED...5-7 FT MON  
NIGHT THROUGH TUES MORNING. AS THE WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE  
NW...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED  
BY TUES AFTN. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH THE  
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO 25 KT GUSTS AND 5  
FT SEAS OVER THE WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AROUND A HALF INCH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO  
MONDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY WHICH COULD RESULT IN MINOR  
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.  
 
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH BASIN AVERAGE  
RAINFALL AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH.  
 
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED TUES THROUGH THE  
END OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ330-  
335-338-340-345.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.  
 

 
 

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab NY Page
The Nexlab NJ Page
The Nexlab CT Page Main Text Page