354  
FXUS61 KOKX 252350  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
750 PM EDT SUN JUN 25 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS WILL FORM OVER LAND MONDAY AND MOVE  
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION  
FOR WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE THURSDAY  
FOLLOWED BY WARM, HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER ON FRIDAY THOUGH  
THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
 
 
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF LAKE  
ONTARIO WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THAT HAS KICKED OFF MORE  
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM BGM DOWN TO CENTRAL PA. EXTRAPOLATION OF  
THIS SUGGESTS ARRIVAL IS NOT UNTIL JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE  
LATEST HRRR SUGGEST NEW ACTIVITY FEEDING OFF THE MID LEVEL  
INSTABILITY AND LATEST GOES-16 VISIBLE DATA SUPPORT AT LEAST  
SOME OF THIS WITH MODERATE CU SEEN OVER EASTERN PA. SOUNDING  
SHOWS ALL INSTABILITY IS BELOW THE -20 C LEVEL - SO ONLY  
EXPECTING SHOWERS. HAVE GONE WITH A 20 TO 30 POP FOR NOW.  
 
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE 50S AND 60S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA MONDAY.  
ALOFT, HEIGHTS FALL TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AS NEXT SHORTWAVE  
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  
 
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE MONDAY MORNING, GIVES WAY TO A SOME  
AFTERNOON CLOUDS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. A FEW  
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  
 
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT.  
 
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.  
MONDAY NIGHT, LOWS FALL INTO THE 50S AND 60S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
LOOKS FAIRLY DRY WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES ON THURSDAY  
AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. IN ITS WAKE, A COLD  
FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO NY STATE ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT BECOMES  
STATIONARY NEAR THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND - WHICH APPEARS WILL BE  
"UNSETTLED."  
 
UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES TUESDAY, PASSING TUESDAY NIGHT. PERHAPS  
A TAD MORE INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND TROF/PSEUDO COLD FROPA TRIGGERS A  
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TS (INSTABILITY IS LIMITED WITH DRY MID  
LEVELS).  
 
WEDNESDAY IS DRY AND THEN WARM ADVECTION STARTS IN ON THURSDAY.  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE REGION, OR JUST NORTH, ON FRIDAY AND HAVE  
POPS IN FOR TSRA. LOOKS TO REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY  
WEEKEND AT THIS TIME. LI'S AS LOW AS -5 C WITH LONG NARROW CAPE'S  
AND PWAT'S OVER 2 INCHES IN A UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW SUPPORTS  
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING - MAINLY IN URBAN AREAS.  
 
TEMPS COME BACK TO NEAR SEASONABLE ON THURSDAY AND THEN GO ABOVE  
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. NO HEAT ISSUES FORESEEN THOUGH.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH  
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL OTHERWISE BE IN CONTROL.  
 
SW WINDS SHOULD THEN DIMINISH THIS EVENING, THEN WINDS BECOME  
LIGHT WNW OVERNIGHT, AND SW CLOSE TO 10 KT BY MON AFTERNOON,  
WITH COASTAL SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT BY 15Z-16Z.  
 
AN ISOLD SHRA IS POSSIBLE THRU 6Z. OUTSIDE OF ANY SHWRS, VFR  
THRU THE TAF PERIOD.  
   
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
 
   
MONDAY NIGHT
 
MAINLY VFR. COASTAL SEA BREEZES. SLIGHT CHANCE  
OF AN EVE SHOWER/TSTM NW OF NYC METROS.    
TUESDAY
 
MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF A LATE DAY SHOWER/TSTM.    
WEDNESDAY
 
VFR.    
THURSDAY
 
MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF A LATE DAY SHOWER/TSTM MAINLY  
NORTH OF THE NYC METROS AND LONG ISLAND.    
FRIDAY
 
MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF A LATE DAY SHOWER/TSTM AT KSWF.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH  
MONDAY NIGHT. OCEAN SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO SCA CRITERIA LATE  
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE AS SUCH INTO FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL  
FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH SUMMER CONVECTION  
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND - MAINLY IN URBAN AREAS. RIVER FLOODING  
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE RUNNING HIGH, ESPECIALLY DURING THE  
NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDE CYCLES.  
 
MAIN AREA TO WATCH WOULD BE ACROSS THE NASSAU SOUTH SHORE BAYS,  
WHERE WATER LEVELS SHOULD BRIEFLY TOUCH OR BARELY EXCEED MINOR  
THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING. THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ARE FROM 9-11PM.  
 

 
   
EQUIPMENT
 
 
OBSERVATIONS FROM KFRG (FARMINGDALE, NY) ARE NOT AVAILABLE.  
OBSERVATIONS FROM KHPN (WHITE PLAINS NY) AND KHVN (NEW HAVEN CT)  
ARE BEING DISSEMINATED THROUGH BACKUP METHODS. ALL IS DUE TO  
AN FAA COMMUNICATION LINE OUTAGE. RETURN TO SERVICE TIME IS  
UNKNOWN.  
 

 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...BC/TONGUE  
NEAR TERM...BC/TONGUE  
SHORT TERM...BC  
LONG TERM...TONGUE  
AVIATION...JMC/GOODMAN  
MARINE...BC/TONGUE  
HYDROLOGY...BC/TONGUE  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...  
EQUIPMENT...  
 
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