368  
FXUS61 KOKX 250010  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
810 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART  
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY AND MOVES  
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE  
AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER  
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
 
 
AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION...THE  
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. NW WINDS WILL  
DIMINISH TO 5-10 MPH...AND TO 5 MPH OR LESS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  
 
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING LATE...LOWS  
TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE  
INTERIOR...IN THE LOW TO MID 40S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND IN THE UPPER  
40S TO LOWER 50S IN NYC.  
 
IF WINDS DECOUPLE EARLIER THAN PREDICTED TEMPS ACROSS OUTLYING  
AREAS COULD DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES...LEADING TO PATCHY FROST  
FORMATION IN INTERIOR VALLEYS AND PINE BARRENS. THIS IS A LOW  
PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING  
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH  
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION  
SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST SATURDAY  
NIGHT...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME CLOUD COVER WITH THE FRONT.  
 
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S...WHILE  
SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE 40S. FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND OF  
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING SUNDAY.  
ITS RIDGE AXIS PASSES THROUGH DURING MONDAY...AND WILL BE OFFSHORE  
ON TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER ALL THREE DAYS...BUT BREEZY ON SUNDAY. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR SUNDAY...BUT A LITTLE COOLER ON MONDAY  
DUE TO MORE LIMITED MIXING. A RETURN FLOW WITH SW WINDS WILL HELP  
PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMALS ON TUESDAY.  
 
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT AND PASSES THROUGH ON  
WEDNESDAY. PASSAGE APPEARS TO BE SLOW DUE TO THE FRONT BECOMING  
ALIGNED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS  
FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. RIGHT NOW IT  
LOOKS LIKE THE DAYTIME HOURS OF WEDS HAVE THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS DRY WEATHER ON THURSDAY.  
 
MODELS DIFFER FOR FRIDAY. GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS ECMWF WITH A  
POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION. SUPPORT FROM  
ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE NOT GREAT SO FAR...BUT WORTH AT LEAST SLIGHT CHC  
POPS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AND PASS  
TO THE SOUTH ON SAT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SAT NIGHT.  
 
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS. BKN VFR CIGS OVER MOST OF LONG  
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TONIGHT.  
 
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALLOWED WINDS IN NYC METRO TO GO E-NE  
EARLIER. THESE WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BACK NW TONIGHT AS THE  
TROUGH DISSIPATES AND THE HIGH BUILDS IN. OTHERWISE...NW FLOW  
UNDER 10 KT TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND OR  
JUST OVER 10 KT...AND THEN BACK WSW DURING MID AFTERNOON.  
WINDS COULD BRIEFLY GUST UP TO 20 KT AS THE WINDS BACK WSW.  
   
..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT
 
 
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS  
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)  
 
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.  
 
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.  
 
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.  
 
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.  
 
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.  
 
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.  
   
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED
 
VFR. NW WINDS G30 KT  
ON SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE  
DEPARTING LOW...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE WATERS WILL WEAKEN.  
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE...ALLOWING FOR SUB SCA  
CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY EVE...WITH SEAS AND  
WINDS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT. WILL ADJUST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY  
START A BIT EARLIER FOR ALL WATERS STARTING SAT EVENING AT  
MIDNIGHT WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW.  
 
SCA CONDITIONS FOR ALL WATERS SUNDAY WITH A GUSTY NW FLOW. WINDS  
THEN SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE  
APPROACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD...SO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR ALL  
WATERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A SW RETURN FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY  
LIGHT ON TUESDAY...BUT GUSTS AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN COULD BE  
MARGINALLY AT SCA LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD  
FRONT.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST  
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR  
ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...BC/JC  
NEAR TERM...BC/NV  
SHORT TERM...BC  
LONG TERM...JC  
AVIATION...BG  
MARINE...BC/JC/NV  
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC  
 
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