552  
FXUS61 KOKX 242332  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
732 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN  
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT  
INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY  
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
 
 
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS ANOTHER  
AREA OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THAT SHOULD  
STAY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL CWA.  
 
OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM THE OHIO  
VALLEY WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES. STAYED CLOSE  
TO MAV/MET MOS GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S INLAND...TO THE LOWER  
AND MID 60S NYC METRO. THE PINE BARRENS REGION OF LI WILL LIKELY  
GET INTO THE 50S AS WELL. THIS IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
UPPER TROF PASSES TO THE EAST WITH GRADUAL HEIGHTS RISES AND SFC  
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRI. A  
WEAK LEE OR THERMAL TROF IN THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR SEABREEZE  
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FLOW BECOMING S/SW FRI NIGHT AS  
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.  
 
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUN WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN  
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. STAYED CLOSE TO MET/MAV MOS. THESE  
NUMBERS ARE STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DEW POINTS WILL BE  
IN THE 50S FRI AFT...MAKING FOR VERY COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND A RETURN  
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER AND A BIT MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.  
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT  
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND  
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY  
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE  
EAST AND OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING.  
 
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...  
WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH  
THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK SURFACE  
TROUGH DEVELOPS BY 18Z.  
 
VFR.  
 
A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND  
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LONG  
ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT COASTS BEGINNING AROUND 16Z.  
 
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...  
 
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS  
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)  
 
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.  
 
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.  
 
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.  
 
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.  
 
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.  
 
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.  
   
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
 
   
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY
 
VFR.   
SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY
 
VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WITH MVFR  
OR LOWER POSSIBLE.   
TUESDAY
 
VFR.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH  
SATURDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS WILL ALLOW  
CONDITIONS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT  
INTO SUNDAY. SEAS FALL BACK BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS  
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY  
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY  
RAIN. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TIMING/AMOUNTS  
THOUGH...SO WILL NOT OUTLOOK IN HWO AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...FIG/DW  
NEAR TERM...MPS/DW  
SHORT TERM...DW  
LONG TERM...FIG  
AVIATION...MET  
MARINE...FIG/DW  
HYDROLOGY...FIG/DW  
 
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