828  
FXUS61 KOKX 251222  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
722 AM EST SAT FEB 25 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN  
BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. A WARMING TREND ON TUESDAY  
GIVES WAY TO ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT  
WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN STORY THIS MORNING, PRIMARILY EAST  
OF THE HUDSON RIVER. HIGH CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE LIMITING THE WESTWARD  
EXTENT OF THE DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER, IT HAS DRIFTED  
OVER TO NEWARK AS OF 530 A.M. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN  
EFFECT FOR THE CONNECTICUT COAST AND LONG ISLAND, WITH THE BRONX  
AND COASTAL WESTCHESTER INCLUDED.  
 
THE COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN OHIO DOESN'T REACH THE FORECAST AREA  
UNTIL AFTER 21Z PER THE MODEL CONSENSUS. WITH THE THE JET STREAK  
TRACKING INTO CANADA AND THE BEST INSTABILITY AXIS SOUTH OF THE  
REGION, THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WILL  
REMAIN BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME ELEVATED  
INSTABILITY AS THE DIFFERENTIAL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION COMES  
THROUGH, AND THERE COULD BE SOME RESIDUAL STORMS REACHING AREAS WEST  
OF THE HUDSON, SO THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED IN THE FORECAST  
REGARDLESS.  
 
OUTSIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, A BAND OF RAIN SHOULD ACCOMPANY  
THE FRONT WITH AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN PER THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  
 
THE RAIN ENDS QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AND NORTHWEST WINDS USHER IN A MORE  
SEASONAL AIRMASS. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH APPEAR REASONABLE WITH AROUND  
35 KT AT 850 MILLIBARS COMBINED WITH THE RISING PRESSURE.  
 
MIXING TEMPERATURES DOWN ON SUNDAY FROM 850 MILLIBARS YIELDS UPPER  
30S TO AROUND 40. ADD A FEW DEGREES FOR THE SUPER NEAR THE SURFACE  
AND THIS YIELDS HIGHS RIGHT IN THE GUIDANCE BALLPARK, WHICH WAS  
SUBSEQUENTLY USED FOR THE FORECAST.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
INITIALLY, CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL  
COOLING SUNDAY NIGHT. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE WHETHER HIGH CLOUDS  
OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM  
COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT, AND HOW QUICKLY THE WINDS SUBSIDE.  
FOR NOW, THE FORECAST LEANS MILDER DUE TO THESE TWO POTENTIAL  
LIMITING FACTORS, HOWEVER THE END RESULT COULD PLAY OUT 5  
DEGREES OR MORE COLDER.  
 
THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BRINGS SOME  
DYNAMICS THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE AIRMASS IS MODELED TO  
BE VERY DRY LIMITING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AT LEAST THROUGH  
MONDAY. THEREAFTER, WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL INCREASE  
CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS AND LIFTS NORTH  
OF THE TRI-STATE REGION.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY,  
SO CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE MODEL  
CONSENSUS BREAKS DOWN ON FRIDAY. THE GFS BRINGS A CLIPPER  
THROUGH, WITH THE ECMWF HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE WEEKEND. NO  
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE DURING THIS PERIOD, ALTHOUGH THE GFS  
SUGGESTS COLDER AND SNOWIER.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST INTO THIS AFTERNOON, THEN  
CROSSES THE AREA FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH  
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.  
 
KSWF MVFR THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VLIFR/LIFR IMPROVING TO IFR  
LATE THIS MORNING. ALL TERMINALS BECOME MVFR BY EARLY-MID  
AFTERNOON. A LINE OF SHOWERS/WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS  
(POSSIBLY IFR - MOST LIKELY FROM CITY TERMINALS ON WEST) SHOULD  
PASS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING FROM W TO E.  
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS BY MID EVENING.  
 
WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SE-S THIS MORNING, BECOME S AT  
10-15KT THROUGHOUT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT  
OF THE WNW BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING, WITH GUSTS OF 20-30KT  
EXPECTED.  
   
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
 
   
SUNDAY
 
VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT LIKELY.   
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY EVENING
 
VFR. W-SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.   
LATE MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY
 
CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
A COMBINATION OF SWELLS AND WINDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST WILL  
BRING SEAS TO SCA LEVELS OVER THE TWO WESTERN ZONES THIS MORNING,  
AND THEN ON THE EASTERN MOST COASTAL OCEAN ZONE THIS AFTERNOON.  
WINDS THEN INCREASE ON ALL WATERS TONIGHT TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AND  
CONTINUE ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION.  
LOOKING AT LOW LEVEL WINDS AND THEY APPEAR TO GENERALLY STAY BELOW  
35 KT, SO DO NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING OTHER THAN MAYBE SOME  
ISOLATED 35 KT GUSTS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. AS A RESULT, HAVE  
CONVERTED THE GALE WATCH TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE COASTAL  
OCEAN WATERS FOR TONIGHT. I THEN EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY  
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY FOR ALL MARINE ZONES.  
 
SCA CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN  
WATERS, EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND THE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND, AND  
MAYBE INTO MONDAY FOR THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES  
INLET.  
 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES OVER THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND  
REMAINS FAIRLY LIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, SO SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS  
ARE EXPECTED FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING.  
 
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS COULD RETURN  
TO AT LEAST THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS BY LATE WEDNESDAY IF THE  
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE WATERS AS CURRENTLY  
PREDICTED.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN BE  
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN  
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS  
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
THE FOLLOWING ARE RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY  
FEBRUARY 25, 2017 ALONG WITH THE FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE.  
 
RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE FORECAST MIN  
------------------------------ ------------  
CENTRAL PARK........51 (1930) 56  
LAGUARDIA...........49 (1996) 53  
KENNEDY.............46 (1996) 50  
ISLIP...............47 (1996) 50  
NEWARK..............47 (1996) 53  
BRIDGEPORT..........44 (1996) 50  
 

 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009>012.  
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ071-073-  
075-078>081-176>179.  
NJ...NONE.  
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-  
345-350-353-355.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY  
FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ353-355.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR  
ANZ350.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...12  
NEAR TERM...12  
SHORT TERM...12  
LONG TERM...12  
AVIATION...MALOIT  
MARINE...MALOIT  
HYDROLOGY...12  
CLIMATE...  
 
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