593  
FXUS61 KOKX 080314  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
1014 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL  
TRACK TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF  
LONG ISLAND ON MONDAY. THAT LOW THEN TRACKS INTO THE CANADIAN  
MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL THEN SPIN OVER  
THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS  
OVERSPREADS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST  
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON  
TRACK.  
 
21Z SREF MEAN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY ARE IN  
GENERAL IN LINE WITH CURRENT SNOW FORECAST. 00Z NAM HAS COME IN A  
TAD DRIER THAN PREVIOUS RUN...HOWEVER LAST FEW RUNS OF HRRR  
SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST OVER WARNING AREA...THAT BY 16Z GENERALLY  
ARE NEAR FORECAST CURRENT FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH 00Z  
TUESDAY. SO GIVEN THIS...HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO SNOW FALL  
FORECAST...MAINLY TO REFLECT SLIGHTLY SLOWER ONSET PER LATEST HRRR  
AND NAM.  
 
STILL APPEARS THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS WILL FALL OVER EASTERN LONG  
ISLAND AND SE CT...WHERE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. WINTER  
STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS.  
 
ELSEWHERE...SNOW WILL BE LIGHTER OVER THE REST OF THE CWA...AND  
EXPECTING A SHARP CUTOFF FROM WHERE SNOW FALLS AND WHERE IT DOES  
NOT. WENT AHEAD AND HOISTED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE REST  
OF CT AND LONG ISLAND...AND FOR WESTCHESTER AND NYC AS WELL...AS  
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN THOSE  
LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WEST OF THAT LINE...ONLY ABOUT 1  
TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR NE NJ AND THE REST OF THE  
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...SO NO HEADLINES ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS.  
 
WITH A TIGHT NE PRES GRADIENT DEVELOPING...CAN EXPECT STRONG WINDS  
OF 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS OCCASIONALLY AS HIGH AS 35 MPH IN THE  
WARNING AREAS. NOT EXPECTING 3 HOURS OF 35 MPH WINDS AND/OR  
VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1/4 MILE...HENCE THE WINTER STORM WARNING  
AS OPPOSED TO A BLIZZARD WARNING. BUT BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE  
IN THE WARNING AREAS. WITH A HEAVY...WET SNOW EXPECTED...DOWNED  
TREES AND POWER LINES ARE POSSIBLE.  
 
ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG...BUT GUSTS TO 30  
MPH POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL AREAS.  
 
LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. HIGHS ON  
MONDAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
SNOW TAPERS OFF MONDAY EVENING. AS LOW PRES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY  
TRACKS EAST...A SECONDARY LOW LOOKS TO FORM OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC  
COAST. HARD TO SAY WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL SET  
UP...BUT LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY THROUGH THE NIGHT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE  
PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PLUS LOW  
LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING DRY ADIABATIC AT TIMES WILL PRODUCE  
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AT OR BELOW 500FT  
THROUGH THE PERIOD SO ALL SNOW IS FORECAST. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS  
WILL BE NEEDED FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH SUPERBLEND NUMBERS...SO  
DROPPED THEM DOWN A DEGREE FOR NOW. FOR SNOW  
ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY LIGHT AMOUNTS IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.  
HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TWO PERIODS OF ENHANCED  
PRECIPITATION AS WEAK LOWS GET SPUN UP OFFSHORE IN THE TUE TIME  
FRAME AND WED TIME FRAME. IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY  
WHERE ANY HEAVIER BANDS SET UP...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A  
MODERATE SNOWFALL IN THE TUE-WED PERIOD IS THERE. A FIRST WAVE OF  
COLDER AIR COMES IN ON THU. VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AGAIN  
SO ANY MOISTURE IN THE AREA SHOULD BE SQUEEZED OUT WITH MORE LIGHT  
SNOW. SNOW CHANCES LESSEN ON FRI AT THIS TIME WITH THE MID LEVEL  
MOISTURE EXITING THE AREA. THE ARCTIC FRONT LOOKS TO BE FRI NIGHT  
SETTING THE STAGE FOR A FRIGID WEEKEND. PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES OR  
SNOW SHOWERS SAT...THEN DRY ON SUN WITH A 1040S HI BUILDING IN  
FROM THE W.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL  
TRACK TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF  
LONG ISLAND ON MONDAY.  
 
VFR THROUGH 07Z OR SO. THEN MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO  
DEVELOP IN LIGHT SNOW FROM E TO W THROUGH AROUND 13Z FOR CITY  
TERMINALS...AND THEN TO IFR FROM E TO W THROUGH MIDDAY. THE  
EXCEPTION IS AT KSWF...WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED  
UNTIL AROUND NOON...WITH CURRENTLY NO IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST  
THERE. ALSO...AT KGON/KISP...EXPECT LIFR AFTER 12Z THROUGH 19-20Z  
WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR LIFR AT  
CITY TERMINALS AND KBDR. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AT CITY  
TERMINALS AROUND 20Z.  
 
WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NE THEN N OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS FREQUENT  
GUSTS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND/JUST AFTER DAY BREAK...WITH  
GUSTS OF 20-30KT LIKELY...AND PEAK GUSTS UP TO 35 KT POSSIBLE AT  
COASTAL TERMINALS. EXCEPTION IS AT KSWF WHERE GUSTS TO ONLY  
AROUND 15 KT ARE FORECAST. GUSTS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH  
AROUND/AFTER 20Z.  
 
LIKELY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF:  
LESS THAN 1 INCH FOR KSWF  
1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS KHPN/KEWR/KTEB  
2 TO 5 INCHES FOR KLGA/KJFK/KBDR  
4 TO 8 INCHES FOR KISP/KGON  
   
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
 
   
MONDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY
 
MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY IN INTERMITTENT SNOW.  
N-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN  
W-NW WINDS G15-25 KT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY.   
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR
 
BUT POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED  
MVFR CONDITIONS IN STRATO-CUMULUS AND FLURRIES. W-NW WINDS  
G15-25KT POSSIBLE.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST  
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON  
TRACK.  
 
A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT SETS UP ON THE WATERS WITH GALE FORCE WINDS  
ON THE OCEAN...EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND EASTERN LONG  
ISLAND BAYS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ON NY  
HARBOR...WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS.  
 
A FEW GUSTS TO STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ON EASTERN OCEAN  
WATERS...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING.  
 
WINDS DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY MONDAY EVENING AS LOW PRES DEPARTS.  
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN HIGH...AS IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR  
THE SEAS TO SETTLE.  
 
HEADLINES FOR THE GALE WARNINGS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES  
LARGELY UNCHANGED.  
 
SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN TUE-SAT. PERIODS OF SCA LEVEL WINDS  
LIKELY IN THE TUE-SAT PERIOD ELSEWHERE.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF WILL RANGE FROM LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH  
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER TO ALMOST AN INCH OVER SE CT AND FAR  
EASTERN LONG ISLAND. THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW...SO NO  
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED. MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS THEN  
LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AMOUNTS APPEAR  
TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT AT THIS TIME AND ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE COASTAL IMPACTS MONDAY  
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A NEW MOON ON MONDAY AND A SERIES OF LOW  
PRESSURES AFFECTING THE REGION.  
 
AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SE OF THE REGION MONDAY WILL  
RESULT IN NE/N WINDS INCREASING TO POTENTIALLY GALE FORCE TONIGHT  
AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. BASED ON A TRACK OF INTENSIFYING LOW  
THAT SHOULD BE SE OF THE 40/70 LAT/LON BENCHMARK AND COLD AIR  
DAMMING SIGNATURE...WOULD EXPECT WINDS TO BE BACKED MORE TO THE N  
THAN NE. THIS SHOULD FAVOR THE LOWER SURGE GUIDANCE FOR THE MONDAY  
MORNING AND NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLES...WHICH WILL KEEP FLOODING  
MINOR AND LIMITED TO THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE LOCALES. ISOLATED  
MODERATE FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE MOST VULNERABLE SHORE BAYS OF  
NASSAU COUNTY. DUE TO THE LOWER ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ON MONDAY  
NIGHT...WATER LEVELS SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER...WITH MINOR FLOODING  
MAINLY LIMITED TO THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND/NY AND  
ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND ADJACENT TO WESTERN LONG  
ISLAND SOUND.  
 
AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAYS HIGH TIDE CYCLES...WINDS SHOULD VEER  
MORE TO THE NE AS ADDITIONAL WAVE/S OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK TO THE  
SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE SPRING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND MULTI-TIDAL  
CYCLE NATURE OF THE EVENT WILL FAVOR ADDITIONAL MINOR  
FLOODING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MINOR TO MODERATE  
FLOODING IN THE SOUTH SHORE BAY AREAS TUESDAY. SURGE SHOULD  
DECREASE HEADING INTO WEDNESDAYS HIGH TIDE CYCLE...BUT LINGERING  
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY INT HE  
SOUTH SHORE BAYS AREAS.  
 
HIGH SURF OF 6 TO 10 FT WILL ONCE AGAIN PRESENT A MODERATE TO  
HIGH THREAT FOR AREAS OF DUNE TOE EROSION ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN  
BEACHES...AND A LOCALIZED POTENTIAL FOR OVERWASHES ON FIRE  
ISLAND. THIS IS BASED ON MODELED IMPACTS OF GALE CENTER FROM THE  
USGS COASTAL CHANGE HAZARDS PORTAL.  
 

 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ007-  
008-011-012.  
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR  
CTZ005-006-009-010.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR  
CTZ009-010.  
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR  
NYZ078>081.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR  
NYZ074-075-080-081-178-179.  
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR  
NYZ070>075-176>179.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR  
NYZ071-073-078-177.  
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR  
NYZ080-081-178-179.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR  
NYZ075-080-178-179.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY  
FOR NYZ078-177.  
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR  
NJZ006-106-108.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ335-338-345.  
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ330-340-350-353-355.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...MPS/JMC  
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/JMC/MPS  
SHORT TERM...MPS  
LONG TERM...JMC  
AVIATION...MALOIT  
MARINE...MALOIT/MPS/JMC  
HYDROLOGY...MPS/JMC  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV  
 
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