112  
FXUS61 KOKX 241050  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
550 AM EST WED JAN 24 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY  
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE  
HIGH GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY  
NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN BEHIND THE FRONT.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY WILL SEND  
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. WINDS  
BEHIND THE FRONT VEER TO THE NW WHICH WILL USHER IN A MUCH  
COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY RISE A FEW  
DEGREES FROM MORNING LOWS DUE TO COLD ADVECTION TAKING PLACE  
THROUGH THE DAY.  
 
STRATOCU HAS MADE EASTWARD PROGRESS, ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,  
AND SKY GRIDS UPDATED ACCORDINGLY. HOWEVER, DOWNSLOPE FLOW  
SHOULD HELP TO ERODE SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER OR AT LEAST KEEP IT  
SCATTERED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. AFTER THIS MORNING CLOUDINESS,  
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AS  
THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT.  
 
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER  
40S ARE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE CALENDAR DAY OF JANUARY  
24 OCCURRED EARLIER THIS MORNING.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
 
 
MEAN UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN STATES INTO TONIGHT  
INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF  
THE TROUGH. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS  
WITH THIS SHORTWAVE, BUT OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DRY. THE  
AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON  
WITH HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO RISE LATE THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE  
APPROACHES.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE AREA AT THE SURFACE  
THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT  
TONIGHT TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT. LOWS  
WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS INLAND TO THE LOWER 20S CLOSER TO THE  
COAST.  
 
SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ARE LIKELY  
ON THURSDAY. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME COLD ADVECTION AND A PRESSURE  
GRADIENT FOR NW WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. THESE SHOULD START TO  
SUBSIDE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO SETTLE OVER THE  
AREA.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT NOTED, WITH IMPROVED CONSENSUS IN GENERAL  
PATTERN WHEN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS.  
 
INITIALLY, TROUGH PASSES EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WITH RIDGE  
BUILDING. RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY IN THIS PROGRESSIVE  
PATTERN, WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES APPROACHING  
FROM THE WEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.  
 
JET ENERGY DIVES SOUTHWARD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH, WITH  
AMPLIFICATION NOTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES  
IN POSITIONING OF THIS TROUGH AS IT AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES  
REGION/NORTHEAST.  
 
BY TUESDAY, THE TROUGH MOVES EAST, WITH RIDGE BUILDING QUICKLY  
BEHIND.  
 
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS  
THE AREA FRIDAY. RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH SETS UP  
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT,  
AND LIKELY PASSES SOMETIME SUNDAY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE  
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. TIMING AND POSITION REMAINS UNCERTAIN,  
BUT RAIN LOOKS LIKELY DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS MOISTURE INCREASES,  
ALONG WITH LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, AND FRONT.  
 
THE FRONT TRACKS TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WITH THE  
APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN COMBINATION WITH LINGERING SFC  
TROUGH, COULD TRIGGER SOME SNOW SHOWERS, OR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DURING  
THE DAYTIME. AGAIN, TIMING AND POSITIONAL DIFFERENCES MAKE THIS  
SCENARIO SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. DRY WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY.  
 
A CHILLY NIGHT IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS RADIATIONAL COOLING  
LIKELY OCCURS WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. LOWS COULD  
RANGE FROM AROUND 10 IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS, TO THE MID  
20S IN NYC. TEMPS REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY AFTER THE CHILLY  
START TO THE DAY. THEN, WAA WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND ABOVE  
NORMAL, IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 SATURDAY.  
 
ANOTHER MILD DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY, 40S AND 50S.  
PLAIN RAIN. THEN COLDER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE BACK IN BEHIND THE FRONT,  
WITH A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING.  
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  
 
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE A BRIEF  
PERIOD THIS MORNING WHERE CIGS LOWER TO 3000 FEET, HOWEVER  
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS  
TIME.  
 
W-SW WINDS THIS MORNING AROUND 10-15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
20-25 KT, MAINLY AT CITY TERMINALS. WINDS TURN MORE NW AFTER 22Z  
WITH GUSTS SUBSIDING.  
 
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...  
 
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,  
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90  
 
KJFK TAF COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CIGS THIS MORNING.  
 
THE AFTERNOON KJFK HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES  
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.  
 
KLGA TAF COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CIGS THIS MORNING.  
 
THE AFTERNOON KLGA HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES  
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.  
 
KEWR TAF COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CIGS THIS MORNING.  
 
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES  
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.  
 
KTEB TAF COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CIGS THIS MORNING.  
 
KHPN TAF COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CIGS THIS MORNING.  
 
KISP TAF COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CIGS THIS MORNING.  
   
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
 
   
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY
 
VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.    
THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY
 
VFR. SW WINDS G15-25+KT POSSIBLE SATURDAY.   
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY
 
MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS. LLWS  
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. W-NW WINDS G20-30KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS TODAY WILL BRING SCA  
CONDITIONS. THE STRONGEST GUSTS UP TO 30 KT WILL BE ON THE  
OCEAN, WITH GUSTS CLOSER TO 25 KT ON LI SOUND, LI BAYS, AND NY  
HARBOR. OCEAN SEAS WILL BE ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS  
WILL DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT ON ALL WATERS, BUT SEAS  
AROUND 5 FT WILL LINGER EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET THROUGH AROUND  
06Z. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY  
MORNING WITH WINDS AGAIN APPROACHING SCA LEVELS IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
 
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, WINDS DIMINISH  
AND SEAS SUBSIDE. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY  
NIGHT. THE HIGH MOVES EAST FRIDAY NIGHT, AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT  
TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOUTHERLY  
WINDS INCREASE, AND SEAS WILL BUILD ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY NEXT  
WEEK.  
 

 
   
EQUIPMENT
 
 
NYC NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO-35 (162.55 MHZ) IS OFF THE  
AIR FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.  
 

 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-  
335-338-340-345-355.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...DS/PW  
NEAR TERM...DS/PW  
SHORT TERM...DS  
LONG TERM...PW  
AVIATION...CB  
MARINE...DS/PW  
HYDROLOGY...DS/PW  
EQUIPMENT...  
 
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