762  
FXUS61 KOKX 291747  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
147 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  
THE HIGH WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE  
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
A WEAK FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS TODAY. HARD PRESSED TO CALL  
IT A COLD FRONT WITH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON REACHING THE UPPER 80S  
AND LOWER 90S IN MOST PLACES. DEWPOINTS SHOULD GRADUALLY DROP  
THIS AFTERNOON, SO DO NOT EXPECT HEAT ISSUES AS HEAT INDEX REMAINS  
CLOSE TO OR PERHAPS A SHADE LOWER THAN ACTUAL AIR TEMPS.  
 
THERE IS A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY, AS 3-FT VERY LONG PERIOD  
SE SWELL (14 SECONDS) FROM DISTANT HURRICANE GASTON IMPINGES ON  
THE OCEAN BEACHES.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NW, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN NYC, TO THE 60S MOST  
ELSEWHERE, TO 55-60 IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND THE LONG ISLAND  
PINE BARRENS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S.  
 
A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DUE TO SE SWELLS  
FROM GASTON.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS RIDGE RESIDES WELL TO THE WEST, UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE  
NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH ITS AXIS PASSING EAST BY  
FRIDAY. RIDGING THEN BUILDS BEHIND IT.  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO  
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT MOVES EAST  
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND PROVIDING PLENTY OF  
SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 
A DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED, WITH BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN OCCURRING ALONG  
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO  
THURSDAY.  
 
DUE TO AMPLE SUPPORT ALOFT, AND CONSISTENT MODEL OUTPUT OF PRECIP,  
FEEL SCATTERED ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET MAINLY WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT.  
 
SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM  
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY, AVERAGING AT LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE  
NORMAL. THEN TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK CLOSER TO OR JUST BELOW  
SEASONAL NORMS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS WEEK. SOME MODERATING  
IN TEMPS LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND.  
 
THE THREAT FOR ROUGH SURF AND HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT  
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK DUE TO SE SWELLS  
FROM DISTANT HURRICANE GASTON.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  
 
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST AT ALL TERMINALS THIS  
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE AREA. FLOW  
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC,  
WITH GUSTS UP TO 18 KTS POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY AT THE CITY  
TERMINALS. ANY GUSTS WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS WINDS  
SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AT 5-10 KTS.  
 
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...  
 
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN  
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90  
 
KJFK TAF COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.  
 
KLGA TAF COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.  
 
KEWR TAF COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.  
 
KTEB TAF COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.  
 
KHPN TAF COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.  
 
KISP TAF COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.  
 
   
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
 
   
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
 
VFR.    
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING
 
SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE WITH  
MVFR CONDITIONS.    
THURSDAY AFTERNOON-SATURDAY
 
VFR.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
COMBINED SEAS VIA WSW FLOW 10-15 KT AND LONG PERIOD SWELLS  
GENERATED BY GASTON REMAIN AT 3 FT LATE THIS MORNING. WITH AN 06Z  
RUN OF NWPS CONTINUING TO RUN A FOOT HIGH, HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE  
THAT COMBINED SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 FT THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE  
AND SCA WILL NOT BE ISSUED, CONDITIONS WILL BECOME ROUGH AROUND  
THE INLETS DUE TO THE SWELL. FOR NOW KEPT MENTION OF 5-FT  
COMBINED SEAS FOR TUESDAY.  
 
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY,  
OCEAN SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO LONG PERIOD SWELLS  
GENERATED BY GASTON. THE NON-OCEAN WATERS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER  
TRANQUIL, ALTHOUGH IT COULD GET A LITTLE ROUGH AS SOME OF THE  
OCEAN SWELLS MAKE IT INTO THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTION OF LONG  
ISLAND SOUND, WESTERN BLOCK ISLAND SOUND, AND THE ENTRANCE TO NY  
HARBOR.  
 
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA, ALTHOUGH THEY WILL INCREASE  
ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT. GUSTS ON A  
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED AS THE WATERS SIT  
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING FRONT, AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING LATE  
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-  
080-081-178-179.  
NJ...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...BC  
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN  
SHORT TERM...BC  
LONG TERM...BC/PW  
AVIATION...FEB  
MARINE...BC/GOODMAN/PW  
HYDROLOGY...BC  
 
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