244  
FXUS61 KOKX 312054  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
454 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW TRACKS TO  
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY. WINDY AND COOL ON SUNDAY  
IN THE WAKE OF THE NOR'EASTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE  
START OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE  
WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSES ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY  
BREEZY AND COOLER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
 
 
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS REMAINS WELL  
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. STRONG SHORTWAVE/VORT  
DIVES SEWD AND ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST  
STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE  
MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE.  
 
WITH SOME UPPER SUPPORT...12Z MODEL SUITE...INCLUDING HRRR SEEM  
TO FOCUS RAIN DEVELOPMENT ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS NW  
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW. AS ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS TONIGHT WITH  
STRENGTHENING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...RAIN CHANCES  
INCREASE...WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES NEAR THE COAST AND TOWARD  
NEW JERSEY.  
 
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND TO  
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S NEAR THE COAST.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
CLOSED DEEP UPPER LOW PIVOTS EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC  
COAST THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. AT THE SURFACE...A COUPLE OF LOW  
PRESSURE CENTERS REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THE INITIAL LOW MOVES  
JUST E OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK AS THE NEXT LOW FOLLOWS ABOUT 12  
HOURS LATER.  
 
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE  
WEST AND THESE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL RESULT  
IN WINDY CONDITIONS.  
 
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE SATURDAY...THEN TURN TOWARD THE NORTH  
SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS  
TIME...FEEL WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS WILL NOT BE MET DURING THE  
DAY...ALTHOUGH EASTERN LOCATIONS COULD COME CLOSE.  
 
A BETTER CHANCE FOR 40 KT GUSTS ARE EXPECTED SAT NIGHT...BUT  
CONFIDENCE NOT TOO HIGH...AND IT IS A THIRD PERIOD EVENT. WILL HOLD  
OFF ON ANY WIND RELATED HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.  
 
CSTL LOCATIONS WILL OBSERVE PERIODS OF RAIN...WITH PROBABILITIES  
TAPERING DOWNWARD AS YOU HEAD INLAND. WITH CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF  
RAIN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN CHILLY. EXPECT TEMPS UPPER 40S TO AROUND  
50.  
 
COLD AIR ADVECTION SAT NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 30S  
MANY LOCATIONS...EXCEPT AROUND 40 NEAR THE COAST.  
 
RAIN TAPERS OFF. A FEW SNOW FLAKES ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY LEFTOVER  
SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN. IN FACT...A FEW SREF MEMBERS  
OUTPUT MEASURABLE SNOW. HOWEVER...THE CONSENSUS IS FOR PRECIP TO  
END BEFORE COLDER AIR MOVES IN.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
UPPER PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE. WINDY FOR SUNDAY AS SFC LOW DEPARTS  
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOOKING AT 09Z SREF AND VARIOUS 12Z  
MODEL SOUNDINGS...
APPEARS WE'RE SHORT OF 40 KT WIND GUST CRITERIA  
FOR ADVISORY...BUT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE 27 KT SUSTAIN CRITERIA IN  
PLACES...ESPECIALLY AROUND NYC.  
 
CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING COULD GENERATE A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY...BUT HAVE  
NOT INCLUDED THIS IN THE FCST AS NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING  
SIGNIFICANCE. DO NOTE THAT THERE ARE 3 MEMBERS IN THE 09Z SREF THAT  
DO GENERATE MEASURABLE SNOW - SO IT'S SOMETHING TO MONITOR. MAX  
TEMPS CLOSE TO 12Z MOS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S AND CONSISTENT  
WITH THE 00Z ENSEMBLE EC/GEFS MOS.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE START OF THE WEEK WITH SLOW  
MODERATION OF TEMPS.  
 
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES EXPECTED SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON  
THURSDAY AS NEXT SHORT WAVE DIGS IN. POPS REMAIN LOW FOR THIS EVENT  
AS TIMING REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN AND OVERALL PCPN APPEARS LIGHT.  
12Z GEFS SUPPORTS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AS PATTERN IS BECOMING  
NON-LINEAR. NOTE THAT MORE GEFS MEMBERS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF THE  
FASTER/PROGRESSIVE 12Z ECMWF...THUS HAVE KEPT FRIDAY DRY WITH  
COOLER/NORTHERLY FLOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
A SERIES OF LOWS WILL TRACK OFFSHORE AND INTENSIFY THROUGH THE TAF  
PERIOD. MAIN TWO FEATURES IN THE TAFS ARE THE STEADY MVFR RAIN AND  
GUSTY N-NE FLOW WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT RANGE...MAINLY IN THE LATTER  
HALF OF TAF PERIOD.  
 
VFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY BECOME MVFR LATE TONIGHT AS RAIN BECOMES  
MORE STEADY AND THIS CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. RAIN COULD BE  
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...RESULTING IN POSSIBLE PERIODIC IFR  
CONDITIONS SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF CITY TERMINALS.  
 
NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS  
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND THEN WINDS INCREASE FURTHER TO 20-25 KT  
WITH 25-30 KT GUSTS AFTER 15Z SATURDAY...WHILE BACKING TO THE NORTH.  
 
EXCEPTION WILL BE KSWF...WHERE PRECIP AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AND  
CONDITIONS OCCASIONALLY DROPPING TO MVFR.  
 
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...  
 
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS  
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)  
 
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE FROM 00-02Z SATURDAY IN  
-RA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST THROUGH 07Z SATURDAY.  
 
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE FROM 00-02Z SATURDAY IN  
-RA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST THROUGH 07Z SATURDAY.  
 
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE FROM 01-03Z SATURDAY IN  
-RA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST THROUGH 07Z SATURDAY.  
 
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE FROM 01-03Z SATURDAY IN  
-RA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST THROUGH 07Z SATURDAY.  
 
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE FROM 01-03Z SATURDAY IN  
-RA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST THROUGH 07Z SATURDAY.  
 
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 01Z SATURDAY IN  
-RA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY.  
   
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
 
   
SATURDAY
 
MVFR CONDS IN RA. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH  
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT...BACKING TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY.   
SATURDAY NIGHT
 
CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR. NORTH WINDS AROUND 20 KT  
WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS.   
SUNDAY
 
VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KT WITH 30-40 KT GUSTS.   
SUNDAY NIGHT
 
VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT.   
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
 
VFR.    
WEDNESDAY...VFR DURING THE DAY
 
CONDS LOWERING TO MVFR IN -RA AT  
NIGHT.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES AS IT  
TRACKS SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS. THE WATERS REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH  
PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST  
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY  
MORNING...WITH STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE DAY OR  
SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 
ROUGH SEAS PER WAVEWATCH SEEM QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED  
WINDS.  
 
GALES CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. WINDS START TO DIMINISH AT NIGHT. BY MONDAY  
MORNING...ALL WATERS SHOULD BE BELOW GALE FORCE GUSTS...HOWEVER SCA  
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL ACROSS THE OCEAN AND EASTERN WATERS  
THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL  
LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO REACH ALL OF THE WATERS  
WHEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE FLOW  
BACKS TO WSW ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUES SUCH ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB  
ADVISORY CRITERIA.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING. THEN MORE OF A STEADY LIGHT TO  
MODERATE RAIN IS FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RAIN TAPERS  
OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 
STILL EXPECT TOTAL RAINFALL TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM  
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OVER ORANGE COUNTY AND INTERIOR LOCALES  
TO A HALF AN INCH...OR POSSIBLY UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH  
OVER SE CT/E SUFFOLK COUNTY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED DURATION OF  
PRECIPITATION OF 24 HOURS...NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS  
ANTICIPATED FROM THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.  
 
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE  
OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
WITH A STRONG NE FLOW...A FEW LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH COASTAL  
FLOODING BENCHMARKS AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  
PORTIONS OF NY HARBOR (SANDY HOOK VICINITY)...THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS  
OF LONG ISLAND AND WESTERN LI SOUND WOULD BE THE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE  
AREAS. PECONIC BAY MAY COME CLOSE IN SPOTS AS WELL.  
 

 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-  
338-340-345-350-353-355.  
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR  
ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE/PW  
NEAR TERM...PW  
SHORT TERM...PW  
LONG TERM...TONGUE  
AVIATION...JM/MPS  
MARINE...TONGUE/PW  
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE/PW  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab NY Page
The Nexlab NJ Page
The Nexlab CT Page Main Text Page