359  
FXUS61 KOKX 301743 AAA  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
143 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT, WITH A WARM FRONT  
APPROACHING ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS FRIDAY NIGHT,  
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW  
WILL APPROACH NEXT TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
FORECAST ON TRACK...WITH SEA BREEZES ACROSS COASTAL AREAS  
CONTINUING TO MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.  
SCT CU ALONG/NORTH OF THE SEA BREEZE FRONT.  
 
TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FOR NYC/NJ METRO AND  
INTERIOR...WITH TEMPS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S FOR SOUTH  
COASTAL AREAS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
 
 
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A WEAK AREA OF  
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO  
THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND THEN THE SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY AS THE FRONT  
MOVES CLOSER ON. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN INTRODUCE A HUMID AIR MASS.  
THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT.  
 
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES ITS APPROACH ON FRIDAY, WHILE AT THE SAME  
TIME, A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A DIGGING  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL ALSO APPROACH  
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE COLD FRONT. MOST MODELS HAVE SOME SORT OF  
NEGATIVE TILT WITH THIS TROUGH, WITH THE NAM BEING THE MOST  
TILTED. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME STRONG TO  
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE CWA. A INVERTED V SHAPE SOUNDING  
WAS NOTICED IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS, INDICATING THAT GUSTY WINDS  
WOULD BE A PRIMARY THREAT. OTHER FACTORS LENDING TO STRONG TO  
SEVERE STORMS ARE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THAT WILL BE IN THE  
VICINITY, PROVIDING LIFT, A HUMID AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE,  
WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS LIKELY APPROACHING 70, AND AT LEAST SOME  
INSTABILITY, THOUGH THIS DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. SURFACE  
BASED CAPE ONLY LOOKS TO BE 1000-1500 J/KG AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE  
IS NEAR 2000 J/KG. 700-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 5-6 DEGREES ONLY  
POINTS TO A WEAK THREAT. WE ARE ALSO UNDER AN 850 MB JET, BUT THE  
JET SPEED IS ALSO NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE.  
 
OVERALL, PARAMETERS POINT TO EITHER A WEAK TO POSSIBLY MODERATE  
SEVERE THREAT FOR FRIDAY AND SPC HAS PLACE THE WESTERN PORTIONS,  
MAINLY WEST OF NYC, IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. FOR  
NOW, USED ENHANCED WORDING OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY EVENING  
 
THE SPC IS FORECASTING A MARGINAL RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS  
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND  
NORTHERN NJ FRI AFTN AND EVE WITH THE APPROACH OF A WELL DEFINED  
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO A WARM MOIST UNSTABLE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR  
MASS.  
 
SATURDAY...WEATHER WILL FEATURE INCREASING FIRE DANGER AS WNW WINDS  
INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH AND HUMIDITIES DECREASE TO 30-40 PCT AS HIGH  
PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.  
 
FAIR WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR THE JULY  
FOURTH WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES  
SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE REGION.  
 
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL OCCUR NEXT TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF  
A SHORT WAVE MOVING SE ALONG THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW  
LVL FLAT WAVE MVG TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, THEN  
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY  
MORNING.  
 
VFR. SEA BREEZES WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE TERMINALS  
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FLOW BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT  
OUTLYING TERMINALS AND OUT OF THE S-SE AT CITY TERMINALS AROUND 5  
KT OVERNIGHT. SE WINDS THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT FRIDAY  
MORNING.  
 
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN LOCATION  
AND TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS ALSO CANNOT BE RULED  
OUT NEAR THE COAST. SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH  
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. TIMING AND LOCATION UNCERTAIN AT THIS  
TIME, SO HAVE LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE EXTENDED TAFS FOR NOW.  
 
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...  
 
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,  
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90  
 
KJFK TAF COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE NORTH OF TERMINAL. WINDS 10-13 KT  
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  
 
KLGA TAF COMMENTS: LIGHT NE WIND OFF THE SOUND WILL PERSIST UNTIL  
SEA BREEZE PASSAGE WHICH SHOULD CROSS THE TERMINAL 18-19Z.  
 
KEWR TAF COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION MAY VARY FROM THE NW TO THE W  
BEFORE SEA BREEZE PASSAGE. SEA BREEZE SHOULD CROSS TERMINAL AROUND  
19Z.  
 
KTEB TAF COMMENTS: SEABREEZE LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH TERMINAL 19 TO  
20Z.  
 
KHPN TAF COMMENTS: SEABREEZE LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH TERMINAL 19 TO  
20Z.  
 
KISP TAF COMMENTS: SEABREEZE MOVING NORTH OF TERMINAL WINDS AROUND  
10 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  
   
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
 
   
FRIDAY AFTERNOON-FRIDAY NIGHT
 
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE  
IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.   
SATURDAY
 
VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT.    
SUNDAY AND MONDAY
 
VFR.   
TUESDAY
 
MAINLY VFR. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE SHORT  
TERM AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS PROVIDES A LACK  
OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT.  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH SMALL  
CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS OF 25 KT WINDS AND 5 FT SEAS ACROSS THE  
ATLANTIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED TSTMS ALONG WITH S WINDS 10-  
20 KT WILL PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS  
WILL SHIFT FROM THE WNW 10-20 KT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT  
AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.  
 
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE TRANQUIL WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING  
BELOW SCA LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SE ACROSS THE REGION.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR THE SHORT TERM.  
 
FRIDAY AFTN/NIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BRING UP TO  
1/4-INCH RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS, OTHERWISE, NO  
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST.  
 

 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...GC/JP  
NEAR TERM...GC/JP/NV  
SHORT TERM...JP  
LONG TERM...GC  
AVIATION...DS  
MARINE...GC/JP  
HYDROLOGY...GC/JP  
 
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