471  
FXUS61 KOKX 210906  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
406 AM EST TUE NOV 21 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH  
EARLY WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. A WARM FRONT MOVES  
NORTH SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
SUNNY AND "MILD" - AT LEAST RELATIVELY SO.  
 
SOME THIN CIRRUS - BUT "BASICALLY" SUNNY. TEMPS TOP OUT AT OR  
NEAR 60 MOST AREAS WITH A BREEZY SSW FLOW. LAST 60 DEGREE DAY OF  
THE YEAR?? PROBABLY NOT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
 
 
RATHER IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH  
CONVECTION FIRING IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF 100 KT JET  
STREAK. THIS CONVECTION LIFTS RAPIDLY ACROSS FL TO OFF THE  
CAROLINA COAST THIS EVENING. JET THEN STRENGTHENS TO 120 KT  
AHEAD OF THE SHARPENING OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE.  
 
NWP, INCLUDING THE GEFS, SREF AND HREFV2 (REPLACED SPC'S SSEO)  
ENSEMBLES ALL SUPPORT RAIN MOVING INTO NYC/LONG ISLAND AND S.  
CT BEFORE SUNRISE. HAVE RAISE POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS  
FORECAST DUE THE OBSERVED DYNAMICS AND THE CONSENSUS OF THE  
LATEST NWP.  
 
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A VERY NICE MORNING RUSH. RAIN MAY COME DOWN  
HARD FOR AROUND 7-8 AM.  
 
RAIN WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY NOON THOUGH AS COLDER AIR  
RUSHES IN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY NW WINDS AND CLEARING  
SKIES.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRI, WITH  
NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES STARTING SAT AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING  
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTERACTS WITH A CANADIAN VORTEX NEAR  
HUDSON BAY. THIS IS LEADING TO TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES  
WITH THE 00Z EC NOW DEVELOPING A CUTOFF LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND SUN  
NIGHT. GFS REMAINS OPEN.  
 
AS SUCH, NO BIG CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH THE  
END OF THE WEEK, BUT HAVE CUT BACK ON THE EXTENT OF POPS  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FROPA ON SAT AS MODELS HAVE TRENDED  
SLOWER AND DRIER. SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING SFC  
LOW PASSES WELL S AND E OF THE AREA SAT/SAT NIGHT AS A COLD  
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. NOT MUCH MOISTURE FOR THE  
FRONT TO WORK WITH HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY SAT NIGHT.  
 
SINCE THE UPPER PATTERN IS A BIT UNCERTAIN NEXT WEEKEND, THIS  
OFFSHORE LOW WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. IF THE FULL LATITUDE  
TROUGH AMPLIFIES MORE, THE LOW WOULD SHIFT TO THE WEST AND COULD  
RESULT IN POTENTIAL IMPACTS.  
 
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR  
COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON SUN WITH GUSTY WINDS  
DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IN THE GFS WHICH EC  
IS WEAKER. SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. SOUNDINGS  
MOSTLY SUPPORT RAIN AT THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH COULD GET SOME WET  
SNOWFLAKES SUN MORNING N AND W OF NYC.  
 
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH  
THE PERIOD, EXCEPT ON SAT IN THE WARM SECTOR. OVERNIGHT LOWS  
ALSO BELOW NORMAL EXCEPT FRI/SAT NIGHTS WHERE THEY'LL BE NEAR  
NORMAL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FURTHER OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. A COLD  
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING.  
 
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  
 
WSW-SW WINDS DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING, AND BACK TO THE SSW-SW.  
WINDS INCREASE AFTER DAYBREAK, BECOMING GUSTY BY LATE THIS MORNING,  
WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25KT LIKELY. ISOLATED PEAK GUSTS TO AROUND  
30KT ARE POSSIBLE AT EASTERN TERMINALS. GUSTS ABATE LATE THIS  
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.  
   
..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT
 
 
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN  
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90  
 
KJFK TAF COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS TO THE LEFT OF 210  
TRUE/220 MAGNETIC THROUGH 11Z. CHANGES IN WIND SPEED, DIRECTION AND  
GUSTS COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.  
 
THE AFTERNOON KJFK HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES  
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.  
 
KLGA TAF COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS TO THE LEFT OF 210  
TRUE/220 MAGNETIC THROUGH 14Z. CHANGES IN WIND SPEED, DIRECTION AND  
GUSTS COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.  
 
THE AFTERNOON KLGA HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES  
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.  
 
KEWR TAF COMMENTS: CHANGES IN WIND SPEED, DIRECTION AND GUSTS COULD  
BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.  
 
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES  
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.  
 
KTEB TAF COMMENTS: CHANGES IN WIND SPEED, DIRECTION AND GUSTS COULD  
BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.  
 
KHPN TAF COMMENTS: CHANGES IN WIND SPEED, DIRECTION AND GUSTS COULD  
BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.  
 
KISP TAF COMMENTS: CHANGES IN WIND SPEED, DIRECTION AND GUSTS COULD  
BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.  
   
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
 
 
   
LATE TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY
 
MVFR POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS, MAINLY  
EAST OF THE CITY TERMINALS. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE LATE  
MORNING/AFTERNOON.   
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY
 
VFR. NW-N WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. W-NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AT  
MAINLY EASTERN TERMINALS. SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SSW INCREASE THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE  
WEST. GALES NOW UP FOR THIS EVENING OVER THE FAR EASTERN WATERS.  
 
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST WATERS EARLY  
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST.  
 
SCA WINDS ALL WATERS ON WEDNESDAY DIMINISH WED NIGHT. SEAS ON  
THE OCEAN MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO FRI DUE TO A SE SWELL. GUSTS  
WILL APPROACH SCA LEVELS ON SAT BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW  
CRITERIA. AN INCREASING SW FLOW COULD BRING SEAS BACK UP TO SCA  
LEVELS ON THE OCEAN LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THE NEXT 7 DAYS.  
 

 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ335-338-  
340-345.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-  
350.  
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT  
FOR ANZ330-350.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ353-355.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE  
NEAR TERM...TONGUE  
SHORT TERM...TONGUE  
LONG TERM...24  
AVIATION...MALOIT  
MARINE...24/TONGUE  
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE  
 
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