267  
FXUS61 KOKX 281900  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
300 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND WILL REMAIN IN  
CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
 
 
HIGH PRES WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS BUILDS NEARLY OVERHEAD  
TONIGHT. ANY CLOUDS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED WILL DISSIPATE THIS  
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...AND CAN EXPECT CLEAR  
SKIES FOR TONIGHT. COMBINED WITH NEARLY CALM SURFACE WINDS...THIS  
WILL SET UP EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS FOR INTERIOR  
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...INTERIOR PORTIONS OF  
SOUTHERN CT...AND FOR THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND.  
 
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS  
TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS SFC TEMPS FALL CLOSE TO THE SFC  
DEWPOINT.  
 
USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD  
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN/AROUND NYC...AND IN THE  
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S MOST ELSEWHERE. LOWS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL  
DROP TO NEAR 50 IN SOME SPOTS.  
 
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES  
THROUGH THIS EVENING.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...AND RETURN  
FLOW SETS UP IN THE AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP  
UP AS SFC DEWPOINTS RISE FROM THE 50S DURING THE DAY TO THE LOW TO  
MID 60S SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 
SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION DURING  
THE DAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SOME AFTERNOON MID-  
LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE  
INCREASES OVER THE REGION.  
 
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH THE  
WARMEST TEMPS IN/AROUND NYC. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO  
THE 60S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH REGARD TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS GLOBAL MODELS  
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE BUILDING HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE NEXT WEEK.  
SUBTLE DETAILS OBVIOUSLY HARD TO PIN POINT...BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN  
WOULD SUGGEST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS...BUILDING  
HUMIDITY AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS.  
 
INITIAL WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVELS PASSES OFFSHORE MONDAY...WITH  
WEAK SFC FRONT/TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY. LATEST GFS THEN  
INDICATES BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THURSDAY. SHORTWAVE RIDING OVER  
THE RIDGE THURSDAY FLATTENS THIS RIDGE SOMEWHAT...BUT LOOKS TO  
BUILD RIGHT BACK FRIDAY. ECMWF INDICATES A WEAK UPPER LOW MAY GET  
CUT OFF UNDER THE RIDGE...BUT THIS LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO  
THE LOCAL WEATHER.  
 
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CANADIAN/NH...MODEL CONSENSUS POINT TO THE  
RIDGE LIKELY SUPPRESSES TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA WELL TO THE SOUTH  
NEXT WEEK...BUT PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER  
PRODUCTS FOR LATEST FORECAST AND TRACK INFORMATION.  
 
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK WILL TRANSLATE TO  
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FOR THE MOST PART DRY CONDITIONS.  
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING THE PEAK  
HEATING OF THE DAY ACROSS THE HILLS NORTH AND WEST OF NYC.  
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS  
TIME...ESPECIALLY WITHOUT A DEEP LIFTING MECHANISM TO BREAK THE CAP.  
 
HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S NEAR  
THE COAST TO AROUND 90 INLAND...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO 70. THIS IS  
ABOVE NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN  
BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO SATURDAY.  
 
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  
 
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO A LIGHT NW-NE FLOW SHOULD GIVE WAY TO  
SEABREEZES AT ALL BUT KSWF/KHPN AND PROBABLY KEWR/KTEB. DOUBTS  
INCREASING ON TIMING AND EXTENT OF SEABREEZE AWAY FROM CT COAST...SO  
GENERALLY DELAYED ANOTHER 2 HOURS AT KJFK/KLGA AND REMOVED FROM  
KEWR AND KTEB. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THIS  
EVENING...AND REMAIN SO UNTIL SEABREEZES DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY  
MORNING/EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...  
 
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS  
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)  
 
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND  
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN  
OCCURRENCE OF SEA BREEZE...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.  
 
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND  
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN  
OCCURRENCE OF SEA BREEZE...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.  
 
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND  
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. LOW CHANCE OF SEABREEZE LATE  
THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND  
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. LOW CHANCE OF SEABREEZE LATE  
THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND  
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS.  
 
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND  
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN  
OCCURRENCE OF SEA BREEZE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.  
   
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
 
   
SATURDAY AFTERNOON-SUNDAY NIGHT.
 
MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR LOWER  
POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY MORNING. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES  
POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS.   
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY
 
VFR. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES POSSIBLE AT COASTAL  
TERMINALS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
HIGH PRES WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS  
TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL DROP TO 5  
KT OR LESS TONIGHT...AND THEN SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 8-12 KT  
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. FOR THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS AND  
THE MOUTH OF NY HARBOR...ENHANCED LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES COULD  
RESULT IN GUSTS TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT...WHILE SEAS ON THE  
SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS WILL GENERALLY BE 1 FT OR LESS.  
 
A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD IS  
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. AS SUCH...STILL EXPECT MAINLY SUB-  
SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
WITH FULL MOON APPROACHING ON SATURDAY...BRIEF MINOR INUNDATION  
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BACK BAYS OF LONG ISLAND THIS WEEKEND INTO  
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.  
 

 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW  
NEAR TERM...MPS  
SHORT TERM...MPS  
LONG TERM...PW  
AVIATION...MALOIT  
MARINE...MPS/PW  
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MPS/PW  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab NY Page
The Nexlab NJ Page
The Nexlab CT Page Main Text Page