151  
FXUS61 KOKX 282002  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
402 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE  
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND WAVES OF LOW  
PRESSURE PASS EAST OFF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. AN UPPER  
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ON  
SATURDAY WILL THEN GIVE WAY TO LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...  
FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.  
ANOTHER LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
 
 
BAND OF LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS APPROACHING FROM  
NE PA AND CENTRAL NJ AND HOLDING TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL...SO HAVE  
FCST LIKELY POP FOR THIS EVENING FOR NYC METRO AND THE LOWER  
HUDSON VALLEY. RADAR RETURNS OVER NORTHERN PA CONFIRM EARLIER  
THINKING THAT ENHANCED LIFT FROM COMBO OF THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF  
AN UPPER JET STREAK AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND H7 FRONTOGENESIS  
SHOULD IMPACT MAINLY INLAND SECTIONS THIS EVENING...SO HAVE  
CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POP THERE. PRECIP SHOULD THEN TAPER OFF  
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S NYC...LOWER 40S IN  
SURROUNDING AREAS...AND UPPER 30S INLAND AND ACROSS ERN LONG  
ISLAND.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN AROUND THROUGH THE DAY ON FRI...WITH ONLY  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES THROUGH THE DAY  
EXCEPT OUT EAST. CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPS MAINLY TO THE  
LOWER AND MID 50S.  
 
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING  
LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS FRI EVENING FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST...  
WITH LOWER CHANCES FARTHER EAST. COULD BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING  
LATE FRI NIGHT AS A WEAK DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS IN ITS WAKE.  
LOW TEMPS SIMILAR TO THOSE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
GENERAL TROUGHINESS NOTED THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. DETAILS IN  
HANDLING OF VARIOUS UPPER SHORTWAVES UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT  
OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL  
TEMPS...AND AT LEAST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE  
PERIOD.  
 
IN GENERAL...DRY WX EXPECTED SATURDAY.  
 
UNSETTLED...WET WX POSSIBLE SUNDAY-MONDAY.  
 
DRY FOR THE MOST PART TUE AND WED...ALTHOUGH A FEW POP UP SHOWERS  
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  
 
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY DUE TO POSSIBLE SOUTHERN  
STREAM ENERGY APPROACHING...WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE PASSING  
OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF  
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A  
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  
 
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN APPROACHING FROM THE  
SOUTHWEST SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. WHILE  
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR STEADIER RAIN  
IS OVER THE CITY TERMINALS AND ALONG THE CONNECTICUT COAST. ANY RAIN  
COMES TO AN END EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  
 
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10KT OR LESS TO  
START...BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT. WINDS THEN CONTINUE TO VEER  
TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.  
 
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...  
 
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN  
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)  
 
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: START TIME OF LIGHT RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON  
COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.  
 
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: START TIME OF LIGHT RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON  
COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.  
 
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: START TIME OF LIGHT RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON  
COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.  
 
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: START TIME OF LIGHT RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON  
COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.  
 
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: START TIME OF LIGHT RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON  
COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.  
 
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: START TIME OF LIGHT RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON  
COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.  
   
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
 
   
FRI NIGHT
 
VFR. CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN LATE FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON OR EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.   
SAT
 
VFR.   
SUN THROUGH MON
 
MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN.   
TUE
 
VFR.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
QUIET TONIGHT...THEN ENE FLOW INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KT SHOULD  
BUILD OCEAN SEAS TO MINIMAL SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE DAY FRI.  
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ISSUED AS FLOW SHOULD BE STEADY...WITH  
GUSTS AOA 25 KT NOT EXPECTED. OCEAN SEAS SUBSIDE BY FRI NIGHT.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO LOW PRESSURE AND AN  
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. INCREASING  
EASTERLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO THE N AND  
NW BEHIND THE LOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE  
LIKELY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS OCEAN SEAS BUILD.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
ONLY UP TO 1/4 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH FRI NIGHT.  
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WOULD BE SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH  
MONDAY...AND TAPERING OFF MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN AMOUNTS CARRY  
UNCERTAINTY...BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN  
INCH OF RAIN.  
 

 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT  
FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW  
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN  
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN  
LONG TERM...PW  
AVIATION...FEB  
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW  
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW  
 
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