421  
FXUS61 KOKX 281122  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
722 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL OVER THE AREA  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON  
MONDAY, THEN CROSSES THE TRI-STATE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDS DOWN FROM HUDSON BAY FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A COLD  
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN  
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.  
 
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AS DEEP RIDGING  
BUILDS ALOFT AND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.  
TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 90 DEGREES ACROSS NE NJ AND THE  
INTERIOR LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS  
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LIKELY PREVENT TEMPERATURES IN THE CITY AND  
INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT FROM WARMING MUCH ABOVE THE MIDDLE TO UPPER  
80S. NEAR THE COAST, HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.  
 
CONVECTION CHANCES APPEAR LOWER THAN ON FRIDAY AS THERE IS NOT MUCH  
OF A TRIGGER WITH DEEPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA. INSTABILITY WILL BE  
LARGEST AWAY FROM THE STRONGER SEA BREEZES NORTH AND WEST OF THE  
CITY SO THIS IS WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EXIST FOR A  
SHOWER OR STORM. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO LIE ACROSS THE NW INTERIOR  
WHICH ENDS UP CLOSEST TO SURFACE BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.  
 
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP  
CURRENT FORMATION AT ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
 
 
ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME  
HEATING THIS EVENING. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL NOT  
MAKE MUCH PROGRESS SOUTH AND WILL LIKELY STALL WELL TO THE NORTH  
AND EAST. DO NOT SEE MUCH OF A TRIGGER OR SUPPORT FOR ANY  
SHOWER/STORMS OVERNIGHT SO THE FORECAST IS DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE  
60S.  
 
RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ALOFT ON SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS FALL  
THROUGH THE DAY WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM THE WEST.  
FORCING IS WEAK DURING THE DAY SO WILL ONCE AGAIN SHOW BEST  
CHANCES FOR ANY CONVECTION NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY WHERE BETTER  
INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE HOWEVER  
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC STRENGTHENS. HIGHS  
SHOULD END UP A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY WITH THE STRONGER  
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A FEW MORE CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE  
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT EAST. A SHORTWAVE  
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT IN COMBINATION WITH AN  
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL ADVECT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM  
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINAS. PRECIPITABLE  
WATERS ARE PROGGED TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES AND THESE VALUES ARE CLOSE  
TO THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED PRECIPITABLE WATER FOR MAY 30 PER SPC  
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. THE REGION WILL ALSO LIE IN THE FAVORABLE  
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 80-100 KT UPPER LEVEL JET AND LOW LEVEL  
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE.  
 
PATTERN RECOGNITION WITH ALL OF THESE INGREDIENTS SHOWS THE  
POTENTIAL FOR A PREDECESSOR RAIN EVENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH  
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY LIES IN WHERE  
HEAVIEST BANDS OF RAIN WILL SET UP. EVEN WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY,  
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY  
AS ALL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER. HAVE ALSO  
INCLUDED MENTION OF THUNDER, ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE  
ON THE LOW SIDE. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.  
 
THE SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY  
NIGHT WHICH WILL PUSH THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME TO THE EAST ENDING  
THE RAIN. COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE SLOWER TO MOVE THROUGH THE  
AREA AND MAY NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY.  
 
DEEP RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY  
AND THEN SET UP OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. A COLD  
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH. THE TREND IN TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL  
NORMS FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST INTO TONIGHT.  
 
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR  
ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON  
VALLEY AND INTERIOR S CT, WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KSWF - SO HAVE  
VCSH THERE THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT  
KSWF, WITH A LOW CHANCE AT THE REMAINDER OF THE NON-NYC  
TERMINALS.  
 
WINDS BECOMING WSW-SW AT UNDER 10 KT THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING.  
SHOULD SEE 10-15KT SEABREEZES FROM LATE MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON,  
EXCEPT AT KSWF WHERE WSW FLOW AT UNDER 10 KT SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID  
AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AT ALL BUT KJFK  
WHERE WINDS BECOME SW AT UNDER 10KT.  
   
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
 
   
SUNDAY
 
MAINLY VFR WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. CHANCE OF MVFR  
OR LOWER IN ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS  
MAINLY FOR LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/INTERIOR S CT TERMINALS.   
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY
 
MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS  
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. LLWS POSSIBLE AT SOUTHERN  
TERMINALS SUNDAY NIGHT.   
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT
 
BECOMING VFR MONDAY NIGHT.    
WEDNESDAY
 
VFR WITH AFTERNOON SEABREEZES.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN  
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.  
 
A WEAK TO MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP SUSTAINED WINDS TO 15 KT OR LESS OVER THE WATERS  
AROUND LONG ISLAND. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SWELLS CURRENTLY FORECAST  
DURING THIS TIME FRAME, SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS  
AS WELL.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.  
 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND ONE TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY  
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MINOR URBAN OR  
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FROM THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.  
 

 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...DS/MALOIT  
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/DS  
SHORT TERM...DS  
LONG TERM...DS  
AVIATION...MALOIT  
MARINE...MALOIT  
HYDROLOGY...DS  
 
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