444  
FXUS61 KOKX 220010  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
810 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN  
GIVE WAY TO LOW PRESSURE MID WEEK. ANOTHER LOW MAY IMPACT THE  
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
 
 
QUIET AND CHILLY NIGHT IN STORE AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE  
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE  
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DRY, SO CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED FOR THE  
NIGHT. EVENING SEA BREEZES DISSIPATE AND WINDS LIGHTEN.  
 
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR  
AND PINE BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S  
ELSEWHERE. SOME FROST IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP WHERE TEMPERATURES  
DROP INTO THE LOW-MID 30S WITH LIGHT WINDS, SO HAVE INCLUDED  
FROST MENTION IN THE GRIDS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH  
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA  
MOVES FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.  
HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN  
PLAINS APPROACHES. ONE LAST SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACK SIDE  
OF THE UPPER TROUGH, WHICH MAY INCLUDE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH  
PASSAGE IN THE EVENING. THERE WILL BE NO DISCERNIBLE CHANGE TO  
SENSIBLE WEATHER OTHER THAN A FEW FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS IN THE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 
THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MODERATE ON SUNDAY, SO TEMPERATURES  
SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE ON SATURDAY. HIGHS  
WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE LOWER 60S. GOOD  
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH  
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S INLAND AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S  
ELSEWHERE.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
RIDGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE  
THAT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST AND PHASES WITH NORTHERN STREAM  
SHORTWAVE BY WEDNESDAY. AS THIS UNFOLDS, SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE  
EAST COAST, AND PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. RAIN  
CHANCES INCREASE DURING THIS TIME, MAINLY FROM TUESDAY NIGHT  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
 
THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING SHORTWAVE,  
SFC LOW AND DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE THAT APPROACHES LATE IN THE  
WEEK, AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH TIMING REMAINS IN  
QUESTION. AS SUCH, GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING  
THIS TIME, WITH PERHAPS SPOTTY SHOWERS, LOW COVERAGE. THEN  
HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT OR  
SATURDAY, AGAIN DEPENDENT ON TIMING.  
 
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE  
TEMPERATURES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY, WHERE ONSHORE  
FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
VFR. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH THIS  
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL OTHERWISE DOMINATE OVERNIGHT  
THROUGH SUNDAY.  
 
WITH THE TROUGH HAVING PASSED THROUGH PART OF THE NYC METRO  
AREA, KEWR/KTEB ARE STARTING OFF WITH NNW FLOW GUSTING CLOSE TO  
20 KT. MEANWHILE S-SW SEA BREEZES CONTINUE AT KJFK/KISP; THE SEA  
BREEZE BOUNDARY LIES JUST SE OF KLGA AND SHOULD MOST LIKELY STAY  
THERE, WITH NW FLOW CONTINUING THIS EVENING.  
 
OTHERWISE, NW WINDS DIMINISH FROM LATE EVENING INTO EARLY  
MORNING, THEN PICK UP AGAIN AFTER 13Z. EXPECT SEA BREEZES TO  
IMPACT ALL THE NYC METRO AND COASTAL TERMINALS DURING THE LATE  
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS FORECAST. SITUATION IS A LITTLE  
UNCERTAIN FOR KEWR/KTEB, WHERE ANOTHER PASSING SFC TROUGH COULD  
LEAD TO A PERIOD OF ENHANCED NW WINDS JUST BEFORE 00Z MON.  
   
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
 
   
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
 
VFR.    
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
 
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS  
INCREASINGLY LIKELY WITH RAIN. E WINDS NEAR 10 KT, WITH G15-20KT  
ON WED.    
THURSDAY
 
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDS. W WINDS G25KT.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ON THE WATERS  
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.  
 
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS, THEN MOVES EAST, TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WATERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. INCREASING  
EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT SHOULD  
RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT AS LOW PRESSURE  
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES PASS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SEAS  
SHOULD SUBSIDE SOME, AND WAVEWATCH III OUTPUT LOWERED DURING THIS  
TIMEFRAME.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
RAIN IS LIKELY DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD, BUT NO HYDROLOGIC  
ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
EQUIPMENT
 
 
NYC NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO-35 (162.55 MHZ) REMAINS OFF  
THE AIR.  
 

 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...DS/PW  
NEAR TERM...DS/PW  
SHORT TERM...DS  
LONG TERM...PW  
AVIATION...GOODMAN  
MARINE...DS/PW  
HYDROLOGY...DS/PW  
EQUIPMENT...  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab NY Page
The Nexlab NJ Page
The Nexlab CT Page Main Text Page