978  
FXUS61 KOKX 200531  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
1231 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST  
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THOUGH SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. MULTIPLE  
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY INTO  
WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST BEING A WEAK COASTAL LOW THAT MOVES OFF THE  
MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A MUCH  
STRONGER SYSTEM THAT TRACKS UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MID WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
 
 
00Z SOUNDING HAS STRONG INVERSION WITH BASE AROUND 880 MB AND  
PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH. LOTS OF STRATO CU AROUND  
SCATTERED TO BROKEN...AND EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD  
BROKEN TO OVERCAST AS INVERSION REMAINS. STILL LEANING TOWARD THE  
NAM FOR MOISTURE PROFILES.  
 
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM  
HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND WIND.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS FLOW VEERS MORE  
NORTH NORTHEAST.  
 
CONTINUE WITH THE CLOUDS AS NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DEEPENING OF  
THE ISOTHERMAL LAYER. ALSO - WEAK INSOLATION WITH A 25 DEGREE SUN  
ANGLE (WINTER SOLSTICE IS SUNDAY 603 PM).  
 
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS FURTHER SATURDAY NIGHT AS FLOW VEERS  
MORE NORTHEAST AND UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. NWP HAS BEEN  
PERSISTENT IN SOME VERY LIGHT PCPN OFF TO THE EAST. HAVE DROPPED  
POPS IN FAVOR OF A CHC FLURRY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
 
HAVE AGAIN ADJUSTED TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FROM MOS BASED ON EXTENSIVE CLOUD  
COVER.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH A FAST PAC FLOW ACROSS  
THE COUNTRY BRIEFLY BECOMING AMPLIFIED INTO A FULL LATITUDE TROF  
OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY BY TUE. THIS WILL RESULT IN  
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE IMPACTING THE AREA IN THE MON-WED  
TIMEFRAME BEFORE DRYING OUT ON THU. THERMO PROFILES ARE WARM ENOUGH  
TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN EVENTS. THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING FLURRIES AND/OR  
SPRINKLES SUN MORNING IN ASSOC WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF.  
 
A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE  
AREA SUN INTO MON...AS A SOUTHERN BRANCH STORM SYSTEM FORMS ALONG  
THE SE COAST AND TAKES A TRACK TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MON  
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM GETS CAUGHT UP WITH THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE  
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. THERE IS DECENT WARM  
ADVECTION WITH COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS THE NE. EVEN SO...BOUNDARY  
LAYER TEMPS APPEAR TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR AN ALL RAIN EVENT. RAIN  
DEVELOPS LATE MON AFT AND CONTINUES INTO TUE...GENERALLY ON THE  
LIGHT SIDE WITH UP TO HALF AN INCH POSSIBLE.  
 
THE SECOND LOW WILL BE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM AS STRONG PAC JET  
ENERGY CARVES OUT A FULL LATITUDE TROF OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE  
COUNTRY BY TUE...SENDING A FRONTAL WAVE NE ACROSS THE TN AND OH  
VALLEYS TUE INTO WED...EVENTUALLY WRAPPING UP INTO A DEEP LOW OVER  
THE GREAT LAKES CHRISTMAS EVE/DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG WARM  
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WED EVE. THERE HAS BEEN  
A SLOWER TREND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO ONE  
AND A HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL BE OVER A 12  
HOUR PERIOD. SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING HAZARDS.  
 
IN COMPARISON TO RECENT MODEL RUNS...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS  
WED CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS WEAKER AND  
DISPLACED FARTHER EAST.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FROM NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ON SUN TO 10 TO  
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUE-WED WITH A DEEP-LAYERED SLY FLOW OUT  
AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF. CONDITIONS RETURN BACK TO  
SEASONABLE LEVELS AT THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT.  
 
CIGS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO VARY BETWEEN SCT-BKN 3000-3500 FT  
THROUGH THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION.  
EASTERN TERMINALS MAY SEE A PERIOD OF CLEARING OVERNIGHT INTO SAT  
MORNING BASED ON UPSTREAM DRYING SEEN ON SATELLITE...WHILE STRATUS  
MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS CITY AND WESTERN TERMINALS. LOW  
CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE OF STRATUS THROUGH THIS MORNING.  
 
INCREASING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD BKN MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON INTO  
EVENING.  
 
320-350 MAGNETIC WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE NORTH AND DECREASE  
EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT N-NE WINDS LESS THAN 8 KT DURING TH DAY  
INTO EVENING.  
   
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUN THROUGH WED
 
   
LATE TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS LIKELY
 
WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE  
FOR EASTERN TERMINALS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.   
SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS
 
WITH LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR  
CITY/COASTAL TERMINALS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.   
MON
 
MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E-SE FLOW. CHC OF RAIN.   
MON NIGHT-TUE...IFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN RAIN
 
CIGS AND VSBYS. E-SE  
WINDS 10-20 KT.    
TUE NIGHT AND WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE
 
IFR LIKELY WITH  
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO SW LATE WED.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
NORTHWEST WIND REMAINS AROUND 15 KT WITH MINIMAL GUSTS A FEW KTS  
HIGHER. THE WIND WAS SLOWLY DIMINISHING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE  
GRADIENT WEAKENS AS HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH  
WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD THROUGH SATURDAY. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS  
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON SUN. WINDS AND SEAS BUILD ON  
MONDAY WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SCA CONDS THEN LIKELY  
FOLLOW MON NIGHT AND TUES AHEAD OF MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE  
OFF THE EAST COAST.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY  
AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS  
EXPECTED.  
 
RAIN ON WED/WED NIGHT MAY AVERAGE 1-1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION.  
MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.  
 

 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE/DW  
NEAR TERM...MET  
SHORT TERM...TONGUE  
LONG TERM...DW  
AVIATION...NV  
MARINE...MET  
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE/DW  
 
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