889
FXUS61 KOKX 071743
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1243 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LARGELY BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE TRI-STATE SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL DAYS OF
MILDER WEATHER. THE NEXT CHANCE OF WET WEATHER WILL BE WITH A COLD
FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST IN TANDEM WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGE
ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION. SFC WINDS WILL
VEER AROUND TO THE SW AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LATE DAY GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN AND AROUND NYC.
LARGE SCALE WARM ADVECTION ENSUES TODAY WITH 85H TEMPS SOME 10
DEGREES WARMER BY THIS AFT THAN A DAY AGO. STILL THOUGH...THIS
TRANSLATES TO TEMPERATURES ONLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH A MIXED
LAYER ONLY UP TO 925 MB. IN ADDITION...SOME UPSTREAM CIRRUS WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LARGELY
TRANSPARENT WITH SUNNY SKIES FORECAST.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT WAVE TROF ALONG THE US/BORDER RACES EASTWARD TONIGHT TO
NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND BY SUN MORNING. THIS WILL SEND A SFC TROF
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING BACK
INTO THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. NO PCPN FORECAST.
A DEEP-LAYERED WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO
THE 60S SUN THRU TUE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH RIDGING
BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. ITS NOT UNTIL LATE MON THAT THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH LARGE
SCALE WARM ADVECTION.
SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON TUE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT.
SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOOK TO BE DELAYED UNTIL
TUE AFT/EVE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. POPS
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY-FRIDAY WITH SKIES
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE A BLEND OF MOS.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN SUNDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING (SOUTH AT KJFK AFTER
19-20Z BEFORE VEERING BACK TO THE SW).
WIND SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS AT KJFK TO 15 TO 18
KTS POSSIBLE.
WINDS LIGHTEN SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING 5 TO 10 KT...THEN VEER TO THE
WEST AND LIGHTEN FURTHER TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING.
VFR WITH FEW TO SCT MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS.
OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THU...
SUN AFTERNOON-TUE...VFR.
TUE NIGHT-WED...GUSTY NW-N WINDS. CHANCE OF SUB-VFR TUE NIGHT.
THU...VFR WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK S OF THE AREA TONIGHT...PLACING THE AREA IN
A ZONE OF INCREASED SW FLOW BETWEEN THE HIGH AND AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH. BOTH GFS/NAM 4SHOW A 30-35 KT LOW LEVEL JET ALSO
PASSING OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT...SO THINK THE OCEAN WATERS COULD
SEE MINIMAL SCA CONDITIONS FROM LATE EVENING ON...WITH LINGERING
5-FT SEAS POSSIBLY HOLDING OVER INTO THE EARLY DAYTIME HOURS ON
SUNDAY. HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS EXISTS FOR TONIGHT
TO WARRANT SCA FROM 10 PM THROUGH 6 AM.
WINDS WILL SLACKEN ON SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA...
WITH QUIET CONDITIONS THEREAFTER A HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS.
EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE DAY TUE...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR GALES ON
THE EASTERN SOUND AND/OR OCEAN WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT-WED.
HYDROLOGY
A CDFNT MAY BRING PCPN TO THE CWA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...BG
HYDROLOGY...DW
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