786  
FXUS61 KOKX 231112  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
712 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF MONTAUK WILL DEEPEN AND MEANDER IN THE  
GENERAL VICINITY TODAY BEFORE TRACKING NORTHEAST TONIGHT  
AND REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL  
REMAIN IN THE MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT  
APPROACHES ON SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.  
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST EARLY TO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE NEW  
WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT MEANDERS S  
OF LONG ISLAND TODAY. BANDS OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT  
AROUND THE LOW TODAY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS LIKELY. CANNOT RULE  
OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL...BUT CONFINED IT TO THE AREA  
ACROSS EASTERN LI FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING.  
 
NORTH WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH  
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.  
 
NAM MOS TEMPS LOOKED TOO COOL AND WERE DISCOUNTED. SO A BLEND OF  
THE MAV/ECS LOOKED REASONABLE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S  
INLAND TO AROUND 60 AT THE COAST.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
 
 
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO GET PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES  
TONIGHT...TRACKING NE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THINGS WILL  
BEGIN TO DRY OUT FROM W TO E THIS EVENING WITH DECREASING POPS.  
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO FRI WITH PARTIAL CLEARING BY LATE  
IN THE DAY FRI.  
 
WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND FRI. CHILLY TONIGHT ON THE  
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA. A BIT WARMER ON  
FRI GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 60S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NEAR NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT EVENTUALLY  
BECOMES DIFFUSE AND MERGES WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING  
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND.  
 
THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.  
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH ITS PASSAGE...AND WITH THE PASSAGE OF  
H5 SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY. STRONG NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON  
WITH 15-20 MPH WINDS WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS.  
 
HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK AND  
THEN DEPARTS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE  
AND TEMPS WILL BE MILD...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON  
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SOMETIME LATE IN THE  
NEW WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF MONTAUK POINT WILL MEANDER TODAY BEFORE  
MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST...PASSING EAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT.  
 
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH BRIEF VFR  
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME THIS MORNING. PERIODS OF  
RAIN IS FORECAST...AND WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME AS RAIN BANDS MOVE  
FROM EAST TO WEST AROUND THE LOW.  
 
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO LOW END VFR...3 TO 5  
KFT...LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERN TERMINALS THOUGH WILL HANG  
ONTO LOWER CEILINGS A LITTLE LONGER. THEN GENERALLY EXPECT VFR  
CEILINGS TONIGHT.  
 
WINDS REMAIN QUITE STRONG FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING. SPEEDS 15  
TO 20 KT...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT. WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE  
NORTH/NORTHWEST AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  
 
WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...EXCEPT NYC AND COASTAL  
TERMINALS. GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT OVERNIGHT.  
 
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...  
 
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS  
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)  
 
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS ARE  
LIKELY TODAY. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR  
TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.  
 
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS ARE  
LIKELY TODAY. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR  
TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.  
 
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS ARE  
LIKELY TODAY. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR  
TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.  
 
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH  
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.  
 
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS ARE  
LIKELY TODAY. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR  
TWO.  
 
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS ARE  
LIKELY TODAY. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR  
TWO.  
 
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS ARE  
LIKELY TODAY. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR  
TWO.  
   
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
 
   
FRIDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR
 
WITH LOW CHANCE FOR SPOTTY MVFR CEILINGS.  
NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.  
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.   
SATURDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR
 
LOW CHANCE MVFR IN BRIEF SHOWERS.  
W WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.   
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT
 
VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.   
MONDAY
 
VFR.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
LOW PRESSURE S OF MONTAUK WILL MEANDER IN THIS GENERAL VICINITY  
TODAY...THEN TRACK NE REACHING NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS  
HAVE FALLEN BELOW GALE FORCE LEVELS ON THE NON-OCEAN  
WATERS...THEREFORE HAVE DOWNGRADED THESE ZONES TO AN SCA IN EFFECT  
THROUGH 2 AM TONIGHT. NO CHANGES TO THE OCEAN WATERS.  
 
SCA GUSTS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN AFTER GALES SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND  
CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING. SEAS WILL LINGER INTO FRI AFTN. SUB  
ADVSY CONDS ELSEWHERE.  
 
MARGINAL SCA CONDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE OCEAN WATERS.  
TIGHT NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WITH 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS  
LIKELY...AND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 35 KT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS  
FOR A BRIEF TIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
CONDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
MONDAY. TRANQUIL CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE NEW WEEK.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE  
TODAY...THEN TAPER OFF FROM W TO E. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL  
THROUGH TONIGHT RANGE FROM 1/3 INCH FROM THE NYC METRO TO 2/3 INCH  
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA.  
 
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THROUGH  
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
A FEW TIDAL LOCATIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND AND  
THOSE BORDERING WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND TOUCHED OR SLIGHTLY  
EXCEEDED THEIR MINOR BENCHMARKS LAST EVENING. KINGS POINT  
EXPERIENCED A ROUGE TIDAL SURGE OF 3 1/2 FT SHORTLY AFTER HIGH TIDE  
WHEN THE WINDS PEAKED AROUND 40KT ON THE SOUND. THIS RESULTED IN  
THE TOTAL WATER LEVEL TO REACH 10.2 FT AROUND MIDNIGHT.  
 
ALTHOUGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE AROUND 1/2 TO 3/4 OF A FOOT  
HIGHER WITH THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLE...WINDS WILL NOT BE AS  
STRONG AND ARE BACKING TO THE NW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO  
KEEP MOST LOCATIONS BELOW THEIR MINOR FLOODING BENCHMARKS. ITS A  
CLOSE CALL THOUGH...AND A FEW PLACES MAY TOUCH AGAIN...THEREFORE  
WILL ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THIS. TIDAL  
DEPARTURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1 FT IN THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS  
AND 1 TO 1 1/4 FT IN WESTERN LI SOUND.  
 

 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-  
340-345.  
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...24/MPS  
NEAR TERM...24/MPS  
SHORT TERM...24  
LONG TERM...MPS  
AVIATION...PW  
MARINE...24/MPS  
HYDROLOGY...24/MPS  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab NY Page
The Nexlab NJ Page
The Nexlab CT Page Main Text Page