901
FXUS61 KOKX 101052
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
652 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT ADVISORY EXTENDED 12PM THURSDAY UNTIL 8PM FRIDAY. FRIDAY IS
NOW INCLUDED FOR ALL BUT FAR EASTERN LI AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN
CT. NORTHERN NEW LONDON CT WAS ADDED. ALSO, SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND A MARGINAL RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
2) HEAT ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
3) A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND A MARGINAL
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING FOR THE ENTIRE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING.
4) MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
STILL MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL
AS LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
5) STILL HOT BUT NOT AS HUMID FOR THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES COOL OFF
MORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. MULTIPLE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHEAST INTO AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE TROUGH THEN SHIFTS EAST, HALTING THE HEIGHT FALLS WITH SOME
SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES TOWARDS EARLY THURSDAY. AT SURFACE, A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PASS
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
BASICALLY, THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY RELATIVELY WILL BE NYC VICINITY
AND LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS IS WHERE THERE WILL BE
HIGHER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. BULK SHEAR 0-6 KM AGL APPEARS
LIMITED TO 20-25 KT MAKING FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK WITH MAIN
THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. ALSO, PWATS INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES,
MAKING FOR TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.
WITH SOME STEERING FLOW, THUNDERSTORMS IN THEIR COMPLEXES WILL
HAVE SUFFICIENT SPEED TO LIMIT FLOOD THREAT TO MARGINAL.
CAPE GENERATED TODAY WILL BE LIMITED BY THE INSOLATION WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO BE LESSENED BY THE ABUNDANCE IN CLOUDS WITH LOWER TEMPERATURES
AS A RESULT. HOWEVER, AIRMASS WILL BE GETTING MORE HUMID AS
DEWPOINTS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THE MAIN HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS ENCOMPASSES THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO NEAR 20 DEGREES
C.
THE REGION SYNOPTICALLY WILL BE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL
BE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL BE WELL TO THE WEST. DEWPOINTS WILL BE NEAR 70. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES RISE EACH DAY INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION, EXCEPT COASTAL SE CT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND. THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION EXCEPT FOR SE CT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND IS
IN A HEAT ADVISORY WHICH STARTS 12PM THURSDAY AND GOES UNTIL 8PM
FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALIZED SPOTS WHICH HAVE TEMPERATURES
REACH INTO MID 90S. HEAT ADVISORY AREA HAVE MAX HEAT INDICES
RANGE FROM MID 90S TO LOWER 100S.
ONE CAVEAT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.
THIS IS SHOWN MORE FROM THE GFS BUT NOT AS EVIDENT IN OTHER MODELS.
STILL A MAV AND MET MOS BLEND SHOWED MUCH OF THE AREA GETTING HEAT
INDICES IN MID 90S TO NEAR 100.
KEY MESSAGE 3
WITH THE GREATER HEAT AND INCREASED HUMIDITY THURSDAY, THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR MORE CAPE, UP TO SEVERAL THOUSAND J/KG WITH SOME MODELS.
WITH SMALLER POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMA OVERRIDING THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE, THERE WILL BE FORCING AND A GREATER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
GREATER SHEAR PRESENT AS WELL WITH 0-6 KM AGL SHEAR GETTING TO NEAR
35-40 KT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA, MORE MARGINAL FOR EXTREME EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION
WHERE CAPE WILL BE LESS. ALONG WITH THIS, THE AIRMASS PWATS REMAIN
NEAR 2 INCHES, SO THERE WILL BE A MARGINAL FLASH FLOOD RISK.
KEY MESSAGE 4
FRIDAY, STILL HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS BUT BULK SHEAR DECREASES DURING
DAY. DEPENDING ON THE COLD FRONT TIMING THOUGH, THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL STILL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF
SOME OF THEM TO BE SEVERE. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH LATE IN
THE DAY AND MOVE ACROSS AT NIGHT. THIS TIMING COULD CHANGE WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES.
KEY MESSAGE 5
STILL HOT FOR THE WEEKEND WITH QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 90S BUT POST COLD FRONT, DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOWER.
AIRMASS WILL BECOME LESS HUMID. HEAT INDICES MAX VALUES STAY NEAR 90
OR LESS. UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN ESTABLISHES ITSELF, NEARLY ZONAL
MID LEVEL FLOW. PERIODIC LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCES WITH PERIODIC
CHANCES OF SHOWERS HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE. A WARM FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH TODAY.
VFR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MVFR THEN POSSIBLE WITH CIGS AROUND
2500-3000 FT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE DAY.
WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND LATE
MORNING, THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES AFTER 22Z. CIGS CONTINUE TO LOWER TONIGHT
BECOMING WIDESPREAD MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR FOR MOST TERMINALS
BETWEEN 0-6Z. SOME IMPROVEMENTS IN CIGS POSSIBLE TOWARD 12Z.
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THIS MORNING AROUND 10KT INCREASES TO 15KT
DURING THE DAY. WINDS AGAIN SUBSIDE TONIGHT TO AROUND 10KT OR
LESS, BECOMING MORE SW BY THURSDAY MORNING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO FINE TUNE THE TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA
AND CATEGORY CHANGES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK FOR 09Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS FOR OCEAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE MAINLY SUB-SCA MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. THERE COULD BE SOME POTENTIAL SCA CONDITIONS RETURNING
TO SOME OF THE WATERS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR TODAY, THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK WITH S-SSW
WINDS 10-15 KT AND WAVES AROUND 3-4 FT.
FOR THURSDAY, THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK WITH SW WINDS
AROUND 10 KT AND WAVES AROUND 3-4 FT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
CTZ005>010.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
NYZ067>075-078-080-176>179.
NJ...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ002-
004-006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JM
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