430
FGUS74 KHGX 181721
ESFHGX
190521-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON, TX
1221 PM CDT THU APR 18 2024
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE SAN BERNARD RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE HAS
IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR THE
SAN BERNARD RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AHPS ENABLES THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC
OUTLOOKS. THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.
IN THE TABLE BELOW, THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE
NEXT 90 DAYS. EXAMPLE: THE SAN BERNARD RIVER NEAR BOLING HAS A FLOOD
STAGE OF 18 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THE BOLING
FORECAST POINT WILL RISE ABOVE 16.0 FEET DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID 04/17/2024 - 07/16/2024
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
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EAST BERNARD 17.0 8.7 9.5 12.0 14.2 15.0 16.0 16.8 17.6 18.9
BOLING 18.0 6.5 8.3 10.9 12.6 16.0 17.8 20.8 22.5 30.4
SWEENY 16.0 1.1 1.1 1.7 2.0 2.7 5.4 6.7 8.7 13.8
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE.
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS, THE
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN
BE DETERMINED.
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT: HTTPS://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/LONG_RANGE.PHP?WFO=HGX
(INTERNET ADDRESS IS ALL LOWER CASE).
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.
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