561
ACUS11 KWNS 250830
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250829
OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-251200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0511
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 AM CDT THU APR 25 2024
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH EASTERN
KANSAS AND ADJACENT NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 250829Z - 251200Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY OCCASIONALLY
INTENSIFY WITH AT LEAST SOME INCREASE IN POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE
HAIL THROUGH 6-8 AM CDT. WHILE IT STILL APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT THIS
WILL REQUIRE A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH, TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY.
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS WELL UNDERWAY IN
RESPONSE TO LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED
MOISTURE RETURN WITHIN BANDS OF STRENGTHENING
LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS. THIS IS INITIALLY FOCUSED IN CORRIDORS ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWESTERN KANSAS, AND ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS
INTO NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA, WHERE INITIAL MOISTENING AND
DESTABILIZATION HAS BEEN WEAK. HOWEVER, MORE SUBSTANTIVE MOISTENING
WITHIN THE 850-700 MB LAYER IS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA, BENEATH INCREASINGLY WARM
ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER AIR ADVECTING EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
INTO THE 11-13Z TIME FRAME, THE LATEST RAPID REFRESH SUGGESTS THAT
THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING MAY BEGIN TO INCREASINGLY UNDERRUN
THE SHARPENING EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL
INHIBITION IN A CORRIDOR ROUGHLY FROM KEARNEY/HASTINGS NE THROUGH
THE EMPORIA AND CHANUTE KS VICINITIES. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS,
IT APPEARS THAT THIS MAY LEAD TO MOST UNSTABLE CAPE INCREASING IN
EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG, IN THE PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT CLOUD-BEARING
LAYER SHEAR (BENEATH 30-50 KT WESTERLY FLOW IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER)
FOR PERSISTENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE
HAIL.
..KERR/THOMPSON.. 04/25/2024
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...
LAT...LON 40209749 38379542 37259470 36689491 36409563 36569624
38729754 40149974 40209749
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