782
ACUS11 KWNS 260049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260048
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-260145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0517
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 PM CDT THU APR 25 2024
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...NORTHWESTERN KANSAS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 133...
VALID 260048Z - 260145Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 133 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...STORMS HAVE DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE
PAST HOUR, BUT SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE LOCALLY.
DISCUSSION...LATEST COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS REGION SHOWS A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OVER THE PAST HOUR -- ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN KANSAS DRYLINE.
THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTIVE PERSISTENCE IS ONGOING FROM NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWESTERN
KANSAS.
THE NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS HAS BEEN MAKING GRADUAL PROGRESS SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS -- IN PART DUE TO CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW REINFORCEMENT.
AS SUCH, CONVECTION SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TORNADO WATCH
CONTINUES TO ENCOUNTER A LESS-UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. AS A RESULT,
STORMS HAVE UNDERGONE A WEAKENING TREND, PARTICULARLY A DECREASE IN
THE NUMBER OF STORMS WITH SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS.
WITH THAT SAID, LOCAL/ALL-HAZARDS RISK CONTINUES WITH STRONGER
STORMS IN/NEAR THE WW. ADDITIONALLY, SOME CAM RUNS SUGGEST THAT AS
THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES THIS EVENING, LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO AN
INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT, SOME
POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A BOWING LINE IS POSSIBLE,
POTENTIALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD EITHER SIDE OF THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS
BORDER. THIS COULD YIELD A MINOR INCREASE IN WIND POTENTIAL, THOUGH
THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH EASTWARD EXTENT SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
RISK.
..GOSS.. 04/26/2024
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...
LAT...LON 40650209 40590068 40339968 39619931 39159974 38870012
38830061 38790102 39550181 39930177 40460221 40650209
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