859
ACUS03 KWNS 030731
SWODY3
SPC AC 030730
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT FRI MAY 03 2024
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE ARKLATEX...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE SUNDAY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE ARKLATEX.
..SYNOPSIS
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO
ADVANCE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES ON SUNDAY
WHILE EVOLVING INTO A NEGATIVELY TILTED OPEN WAVE. A WEAK
SOUTHERN-STREAM UPPER TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE
SURFACE, LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT PRECEDING THE
UPPER TROUGH OVERSPREADS THIS REGION. RICH LOW-LEVEL WILL RETURN
NORTHWARD OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE ARKLATEX
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PRIOR TO THE START OF THE DAY 3 PERIOD SUNDAY
MORNING. IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT ONE OR MORE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
MAY BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING OVER PARTS OF OK/TX IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOME
REGENERATION/STRENGTHENING OF CONVECTION MAY OCCUR ON THE EASTERN
FRINGES OF THIS MORNING ACTIVITY AS GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION OCCURS
WITH FILTERED DAYTIME HEATING, WITH AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR MAINLY
DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND VICINITY. IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE, THE AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS MAY TEND TO REMAIN CAPPED. ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ALONG
TRAILING OUTFLOW FROM THE MORNING THUNDERSTORMS. IF CONVECTION CAN
INITIATE, A MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTH TX, ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, WOULD
SUPPORT ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME HAIL/WIND THREAT. STILL,
LARGE-SCALE FORCING APPEARS NEBULOUS AT BEST ACROSS THIS REGION, AND
OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS OK/TX REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN.
HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED A FAIRLY BROAD MARGINAL RISK TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL/UNFOCUSED SEVERE POTENTIAL.
..GLEASON.. 05/03/2024
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