150
ACUS01 KWNS 100106
SWODY1
SPC AC 100104
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0804 PM CDT THU MAY 09 2024
VALID 100100Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
CENTRAL/EAST TX ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...
..SUMMARY
ONGOING SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A VERY LARGE HAIL THREAT
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS THIS EVENING, WITH OTHER SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST. A CORRIDOR OF POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
DAMAGING WIND REMAINS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS EAST TEXAS,
LOUISIANA, SOUTHERN PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, AND GEORGIA, AND
PERHAPS INTO NORTH FLORIDA.
..TEXAS INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
INTENSE SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
TX, WITHIN AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AND FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
VERY LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FOR AS LONG AS THE
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES PERSIST THIS EVENING, ALONG WITH SEVERE GUSTS
AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO. FARTHER EAST, CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY
INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MS/AL, NEAR/SOUTH OF
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND STRONG
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS THROUGH
THE EVENING, WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL (POSSIBLY VERY LARGE),
LOCALIZED SEVERE GUSTS, AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.
WITH VERY FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE FROM EAST
TEXAS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALOFT,
POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR AN UPSCALE-GROWING STORM CLUSTER TO EVOLVE
INTO A FAST-MOVING MCS, WHICH COULD PRODUCE A SWATH OF DAMAGING
WINDS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS, HOWEVER, REGARDING STORM EVOLUTION THROUGH THE EVENING,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR EXTENSIVE CONVECTION ACROSS MS/AL AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS CONVECTION WOULD POSE A
SEVERE THREAT, BUT WOULD ALSO TEND TO PUSH THE OUTFLOW SOUTHWARD
WITH TIME.
IF AN EASTWARD-MOVING CLUSTER CAN EVOLVE ACROSS TX OR LA AND BECOME
FAVORABLY ALIGNED WITH THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE BOUNDARY, THEN AN
ORGANIZED BOW COULD SURGE EASTWARD WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND. IT
IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS COULD EVOLVE OUT OF THE
MS/AL CONVECTION. REGARDLESS OF EVOLUTION, WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITHIN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH ONE OR MORE CORRIDORS OF DAMAGING WIND
POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH A THREAT OF HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO.
..DEAN.. 05/10/2024
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