542  
FNUS71 KRLX 031520  
FWSRLX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR DART RX UNIT C...WAYNE FIRE DISPATCH  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
1120 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2018  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 EDT ON MAY 03.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
HOT AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS  
IN CONTROL. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AHEAD OF AN  
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN ANY  
STORM. OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS, WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF  
SOUTHWEST...ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 25 MPH. RH VALUES MAY DIP INTO THE  
30S THROUGH MIDDAY, WITH SOME RECOVERY EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
THE FRONT WILL PUSH FURTHER INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND STALL OUT  
INTO THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY, THAT MEANS SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND HANG  
AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WEAKER FRONT BRINGS  
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
CWR.................10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 20 PERCENT LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON, THEN INCREASING TO 40 PERCENT LATE  
IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 30 PERCENT LATE  
IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 1600, THEN 1-8 STRIKES.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 86.  
MIN HUMIDITY........35 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND  
25 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR  
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500-3900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4500-5400 FT AGL  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 14 TO 20 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........62 62 63 65 67 69  
WEATHER COV..... ISO SCT SCT  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........ ISO SCT SCT  
CWR.............10 10 10 20 40 30  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 20 40 30  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 2 2  
TEMP............82 84 85 84 83 83  
RH..............41 38 35 39 44 47  
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW  
20 FT WIND SPD..8 8 9 9 8 8  
20 FT WIND GUST.18 19 20 22 22 21  
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.5 3.2 3.9 4.5 5.1 5.4  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.14 16 17 18 18 20  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 4 4 4  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING,  
THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
EARLY IN THE EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
CWR.................30 PERCENT DECREASING TO 20 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1-8 STRIKES UNTIL 2100, THEN NO TSTMS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 67.  
MAX HUMIDITY........75 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 23 MPH  
EARLY IN THE EVENING THEN 22 MPH EARLY IN THE  
EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR  
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4600-5900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 600-1300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 21 TO 29 MPH DECREASING TO 7 TO 15  
MPH LATE IN THE EVENING.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........70 72 74 72 69 68 70 73 76 79 82 86  
WEATHER COV.....SCT ISO SCH SCH  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........SCT ISO SCH  
CWR.............30 20 20 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 20  
CHC OF PCPN (%).30 20 20 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 20  
LAL.............2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............82 81 78 76 74 72 72 71 70 69 69 68  
RH..............49 52 58 63 66 70 69 71 70 72 74 75  
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW  
20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6  
20 FT WIND GUST.18 13 18 17 10 6 7 7 7 8 8 10  
MIX HGT (KFT)...5.8 5.9 5.6 4.6 3.3 2.2 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.6  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.23 28 29 25 21 15 12 9 8 7 7 7  
HAINES INDEX....4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CWR.................20 PERCENT INCREASING TO 50 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 1400, THEN 1-8 STRIKES UNTIL  
1500, THEN 9-15 STRIKES.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 79.  
MIN HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH  
IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY  
AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS  
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2300-4100 FT AGL  
LATE IN THE MORNING.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 7 TO 16 MPH INCREASING TO 18 TO 26  
MPH LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN DECREASING TO  
AROUND 15 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL  
FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........84 83 77 78 81 83 85 89 92 89 84 82  
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........ SCH CHC CHC CHC  
CWR.............20 20 20 30 40 40 40 40 50 50 50 50  
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 30 40 40 40 40 50 50 50 50  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 3  
TEMP............68 68 68 69 72 74 75 76 76 77 78 79  
RH..............74 74 73 70 64 62 62 64 66 64 62 60  
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW  
20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 7 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 9  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 12 10 14 18 19 19 19 18 17 14 13  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.4 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.5 3.2 3.8 4.1 3.6 2.8 2.3  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W SW SW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.7 8 9 13 16 20 23 25 26 23 18 15  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5  
 

 
FORECASTER...30  
REQUESTED BY...CHRIS PELLISSIER  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1808790.0/RLX  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab WV Page
The Nexlab OH Page
The Nexlab KY Page
The Nexlab VA Page Main Text Page