952  
FXUS61 KCLE 251026  
AFDCLE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH  
626 AM EDT SUN JUN 25 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DESCEND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION  
TODAY THOUGH TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL PASS  
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON  
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE HOLD FOR MID WEEK WITH MORE  
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO END THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
UPDATE...DID BRING CHANCE POPS INTO NWRN PA A FEW HOURS EARLIER  
BASED ON THE HRRR. OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES.  
 
ORIGINAL...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES  
REGION TODAY. MODELS SHOW AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS  
THE CENTRAL LAKES. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO MOVE  
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES WITH A COLD FRONT SSW WHICH WILL MOVE  
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP BUT BUFKIT SHOWS  
VERY LITTLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE BELOW THE LCL AND JUST ABOVE THE  
AIRMASS DRYS OUT AGAIN. BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS FAR  
NORTHEAST OH AND NWRN PA FROM NOON ON SO WILL HAVE CHANCE/SLIGHT  
CHANCE POPS THERE. ODDLY, THE LAKE MAY ALSO HELP WITH THE COOL  
AIR ALOFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS ARE MORE FAVORABLE.  
WILL GO DRY ELSEWHERE. HIGHS, THINK LATE SEPTEMBER.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
TONIGHT THE NAM12 IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE INTO  
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NWRN PA HOWEVER IT MAY BE PICKING UP ON LAKE  
INFLUENCES WITH 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO +5 TO +6C ACROSS THE AREA  
WHILE LAKE TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO +20C. WILL BRING LIKELY POPS INTO  
NERN OH AND NWRN PA OVERNIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE  
AND OVER THE LAKE AS WELL. LAKE INDUCED CAPES REACH OVER 1200  
J/KG AT KERI WITH A FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION FOR "LAKE EFFECT".  
MONDAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVES ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE  
TROUGH AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES WITH SIMILAR 850MB TEMPS.  
WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS MONDAY WITH IMPROVED DYNAMICS AS  
WELL AS LAKE INDUCED CAPES WHICH 1600-1700 J/KG. WINDS HOWEVER  
WILL BE TRENDING MORE SOUTHWEST SO BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON THE  
LAKE INFLUENCE MAY BE CONFINED TO NEAR THE SHORE. TUESDAY THE  
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS  
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. MAY NOT QUITE BE OUT OF THE WOODS IN THE  
MORNING EAST SO WILL NEED CHANCE POPS THERE HOWEVER BY AFTERNOON  
WILL DRY OUT THE FORECAST. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL TRY  
FOR DRY WITH THE HIGH IN PLACE. COOL TO START BUT MODERATING  
INTO MID WEEK.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING FROM THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY  
NIGHT AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT ADVECTS  
MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THURSDAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING IN  
FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL  
STALL IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN OR CENTRAL OHIO FRIDAY. THIS WILL  
MEAN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY. THE FRONT  
WILL LIFT BACK NORTH OF THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AS  
ANOTHER LOW CUTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. ITS  
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  
 
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FINALLY DWINDLE BEHIND THE FRONT AS WE HEAD  
INTO THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAY HAVE THE  
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. ADDITIONALLY, DEPENDING ON WHERE EXACTLY  
THE FRONT STALLS FRIDAY, THERE MAY BE SOME FLOODING CONCERNS. MORE  
ON THESE POSSIBILITIES IN THE COMING DAYS. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT  
THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS  
AFTERNOON ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST OHIO INTO NORTHWEST  
PENNSYLVANIA. THESE COULD AFFECT KERI, SO HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30  
FOR THE TIME BEING. WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS  
FAR WEST AS KCAK, PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.  
VFR CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, LIKELY  
BECOMING BROKEN (050) IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS EASTERN  
AREAS. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWER. WEST WINDS  
WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS.  
 
OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF ISOLATED MVFR IN SHOWERS MONDAY INTO  
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A TROUGH ALOFT.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND IT LOOKS AS IF IT SHOULD BE A  
TAD STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY. HAVE THEREFORE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE LAKESHORE. WINDS WILL BE  
SUSTAINED NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WAVES WILL GENERALLY  
RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 FEET, WITH SMALLER WAVES WITHIN THE WESTERN BASIN.  
THESE WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AFTERNOON, WHEN ANOTHER  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE EARLY TUESDAY, BRIEFLY FLIPPING THE  
FLOW TO THE NORTHWEST. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE WINDS WILL NOT BE  
STRONG ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS BEHIND THIS FRONT. A  
SURFACE RIDGE WILL CROSS THE LAKE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS  
FINALLY RETURNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN CONTINUE  
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS  
EVENING FOR OHZ003-007-009>012-089.  
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS  
EVENING FOR PAZ001.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING  
FOR LEZ142>149.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...TK  
NEAR TERM...TK  
SHORT TERM...TK  
LONG TERM...MOTTICE  
AVIATION...MOTTICE  
MARINE...MOTTICE  
 
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