955
FXUS61 KCLE 042320
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
720 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK TROF WILL
BRUSH THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT. THE MODELS TRY TO INDICATE
THAT IT WILL BE DRY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE RADAR AND
THE FLOW WILL GO WITH A 30 POP FOR A LIGHT SHOWER IN THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE EVENING WITH SOME SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE JUST TO THE NORTH. ANY RAIN WOULD BE OUT OF MID CLOUDS...
AIRMASS TOO STABLE FOR THUNDER IN THIS AREA. AT THE MOST .01
COULD FALL IN THE FDY AND MNN AREAS. THE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RAIN BEING CAUSED BY THE WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE CLOUDS ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST OHIO MAY THIN A
LITTLE LATE. WITH LIGHT WINDS WENT WITH THE COOLER GUIDANCE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
THE MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY
FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE
AREA. THE NAM/GFS AND 00Z ECMWF INDICATE A THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
WITH THE TROF ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER UPPER LOW IN THE AREA. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE. THE AREA MAY HAVE TO EVENTUALLY BE EXPANDED.
THE NAM/DIGEX HAS PRECIPITATION FOR TUESDAY WITH A FRONT APPROACHING
WHILE THE GFS/09Z SREF AND 12Z ECMWF ARE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA. AT THIS TIME WITH SOME QUESTION WILL KEEP IT DRY.
THE GFS TRIES TO BRING SOMETHING IN ON WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF
DOES NOT. IT SEEMS LIKE THE GFS MAY HAVE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
ISSUES. WILL BE CONSISTENT AND KEEP WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
DRY.
FOR THE MOST PART THE FIRST PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR ANY CHANGES. EVENTUALLY AN MCS WILL WORKS ITS WAY TOWARD
THE AREA BUT THAT MAY NOT BE UNTIL LATE WEEK.
FOR TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS WENT MORE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND LIMITED CLOUDS AND FAIRLY LOW DEW POINTS. FOR HIGHS
BECAUSE OF THE TIME OF THE YEAR WENT ON THE WARMER SIDE EXCEPT CLOSE
TO LAKE ERIE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROF
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION.
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET. HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WILL RETREAT TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES ON FRIDAY...BRINGING WARM AND MOIST AIR TO THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS
SHOW A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH OHIO AND PENNSYLVANIA LATE NEXT
WEEK. SOME SUBTLE TIMING DIFFERENCES BUT I SIDED WITH THE EURO
SOLUTION OF A FRIDAY EVENING FRONTAL PASSAGE. CHANCE POPS SEEM TO BE
A GOOD START WITH THIS FRONT BUT OTHERWISE THE END OF THE FORECAST
SHOULD BE DRY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN ON
SATURDAY.
AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
IT SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY BUT DRY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
PTCHY MVFR BR TOWARD DAYBREAK. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW IN CENTRAL
MISSOURI PRODUCING THE 6K - 15K BKN-OVC CIGS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. MIGHT GET A FEW SPRINKLES NR FDY-MT VERNON LINE
TONIGHT...BUT EVERYONE ELSE SHOULD REMAIN DRY. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT MOVING LOW INTO WRN KY BY DAYBREAK. LOW EXPECTED TO PUSH
OFF THE NORTH CAR COAST TOMORROW EVENING...BRINGING SOME CLEARING
FOR US WHEN IT DOES.
OUTLOOK...ASIDE FROM SOME EARLY MORNING FOG EACH MORNING...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
WINDS ON THE LAKE FINALLY STARTING TO TAPER OFF AND I LET THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRE AS PLANNED AT 3PM. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE LAKE ON SUNDAY WILL YIELD GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE
ON MONDAY WHICH WILL BRING THE WINDS INTO THE 10-20KT RANGE...ASIDE
FROM THAT WINDS/WAVES WILL BE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA/LEINS
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...LEINS
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