340  
FXUS61 KCLE 201359  
AFDCLE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH  
959 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COLD FRONT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ERIE WILL DRIFT TO  
SOUTHERN OHIO AND THEN STALL LATER TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW  
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE STALLED  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE  
GREAT LAKES REGION BY WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AREAS OF DRIZZLE ENDING. UPDATE REFLECTS MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY AND  
TEMPERATURES.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF LAKE  
ERIE AND SHOULD EXIT THE AREA TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. THE  
FRONT WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN OHIO LATER TODAY AND THEN MOVE  
LITTLE THROUGH MONDAY. JUST A FEW SHOWERS REMAINS AT THE  
SOUTHEAST TIP OF THE AREA AND THESE SHOULD BE GONE BY DAYBREAK.  
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS AND STRATO CUMULUS  
DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THESE CLOUDS WILL  
LINGER OVER THE AREA INTO THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME  
INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE THIS  
MORNING BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE SMALL. NORTHEAST TO FLOW WILL  
DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BY 18Z. THIS IS A DRY FLOW FOR THE  
AREA AND ANY THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY END.  
THIS NE FLOW SHOULD ALSO KEEP THE AREA DRY TONIGHT AND HAVE  
REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP. EVEN ON MONDAY THERE IS SOME  
QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR NORTH AND EAST ANY PRECIP WILL GET AS LOW  
PRESSURE HEADS EAST FROM THE PLAINS. RIGHT NOW BEST CHANCES  
WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE U.S. 30 CORRIDOR. EVEN THERE WILL  
GO NO HIGHER THAN CHANCES WORDING. NE OH AND NW PA SHOULD STAY  
DRY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THERE WILL HOWEVER BE A LOT OF  
CLOUDINESS ON MONDAY.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTERESTING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH  
THE FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LARGE  
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE  
STAYED TO THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE  
LAKE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
THE SHORT TERM BEGINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH MODELS SHOWING WEAK LOW  
PRESSURE OVER IL THAT MOVES EAST AND REACHES INTO NORTHERN OHIO BY  
TUESDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE EVENTUALLY DRIFTS SOUTHEAST OUT OF  
THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE AREA.  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WILL HAVE HIGH  
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.  
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE SOUTHEAST. TUESDAY NIGHT WE COULD SEE A FEW  
LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EAST/SOUTHEAST BEFORE MIDNIGHT  
WITH DRYING AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE  
WITH A DRY FORECAST WITH THE HIGH ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS A FEW  
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT ROUGHLY 75 TO 80.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
THE LONG TERM WILL BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE  
AREA AND A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH  
FRIDAY. SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE NOT IN PERFECT AGREEMENT BUT BOTH THE  
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES WITH  
MOISTURE SURGING NORTH INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW SATURDAY AND  
THE SYSTEM LIKELY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY  
NIGHT OR SUNDAY. HIGHS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS EXPECTED WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND PATCHY IFR CIGS HAVE  
DEVELOPED. HAVE ALSO SEEN SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE DEVELOP DOWNWIND  
OF THE LAKE. DO NOT THINK THIS WILL LAST LONG BUT IT COULD  
IMPACT KCLE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY GO FROM  
NW TO NE TODAY AND AS IT DOES THE LOW LEVELS WILL DRY OUT.  
EXPECT CIGS TO BE BACK TO MVFR BY MIDDAY MOST AREAS AND BY MID  
AFTERNOON A LOT OF THE AREA SHOULD BE VFR. WILL LIKELY SEE BKN  
CIGS PERSIST TONIGHT. ANY PRECIP TONIGHT SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF  
THE AREA.  
 
OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED.  
ALTHOUGH EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED MONDAY AT 10 TO 15  
KNOTS...GENERALLY, FLOW WILL REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE  
ENTIRE PERIOD. WAVES WILL BE 2 FEET OR LESS.  
 

 
   
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...NONE.  
PA...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA  
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/OUDEMAN  
SHORT TERM...TK  
LONG TERM...TK  
AVIATION...KUBINA  
MARINE...TK  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab OH Page
The Nexlab PA Page Main Text Page