707  
FXUS61 KCLE 291141  
AFDCLE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH  
741 AM EDT SAT APR 29 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OHIO WILL MOVE NORTH  
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE  
PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY WILL MOVE NORTH TO WISCONSIN BY MIDDAY  
MONDAY AND EVENTUALLY INTO QUEBEC BY LATE TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT  
FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
TOUGH FORECAST TODAY WITH PRECIP TIMING AND COVERAGE A REAL  
CHALLENGE. HAD HOPED TO FIND SOME WINDOWS OF DRY WEATHER TODAY  
BUT THAT WILL BE TOUGH TO DO. SOUTHERN AREAS ESPECIALLY WILL SEE  
GOOD CHANCES FOR MORE SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER AS THE  
SURFACE WARM FRONT REMAINS NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR. ALL OF THE  
GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER WAVE OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ALONG  
THE FRONT WELL SOUTHWEST OF HERE BY DAYBREAK. THIS BLOB FOR  
LACK OF A BETTER TERM SHOULD THEN SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL  
AREA THIS MORNING. THERE COULD BE A SHARP CUTOFF OF THE PRECIP  
ON THE NORTH SIDE BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO FORECAST THAT.  
WILL END UP WITH LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS ALL AREAS TODAY. THE WARM  
FRONT WILL TRY TO EDGE IT'S WAY NORTH INTO THE AREA BY LATE  
TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL TEMPERATURE  
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.  
NORTHEAST FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE WILL RESULT IN A CHILLY DAY  
ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
THE WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND BY  
DAYBREAK SUNDAY IT SHOULD BE GONE. IT WILL TAKE PRECIP CHANCES  
WITH AS IT GOES. WILL NEED TO LEAVE A MENTION IN ALL AREAS THIS  
EVENING BUT WILL BEGIN TO DRY THINGS OUT FROM THE SOUTH LATE  
TONIGHT. MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY. HAVE LEFT SOME 20  
POPS IN MUCH OF THE AREA FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES BUT WOULD  
REALLY BE SURPRISED TO SEE ANY PRECIP EXCEPT ACROSS NW OH LATER  
IN THE DAY. THE CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO THIN SOME DURING THE DAY WITH  
PARTIAL SUNSHINE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. 850 MB TEMPS  
WILL GET TO PLUS 17 MUCH OF THE AREA SO HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S  
SEEM REASONABLE. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST  
SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW OFF TO THE NW ADVANCES  
ACROSS THE AREA. NOT SURE HOW FAR EAST THIS PRECIP WILL GET BY  
DAYBREAK MONDAY BUT AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL  
SEE PRECIP TOMORROW NIGHT. EVEN IN THE FAR EAST CHANCES ARE  
WORTH A MENTION PRIOR TO 12Z MON. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD  
BE NEAR I-75 AT DAYBREAK AND WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PA AROUND  
21Z. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TILL THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. BY  
DAYBREAK TUESDAY 850 MB TEMPS WILL BE BACK BELOW ZERO CELSIUS  
SO THERE IS GOING TO BE A DRAMATIC AIRMASS CHANGE. INSTABILITY  
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT ALL AREAS AND DOWNWIND OF THE  
LAKE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE CHANGING AIRMASSES  
DURING THE PERIOD HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS WHICH ARE  
IN DECENT AGREEMENT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AS BROAD  
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL HOLD IN PLACE LATE NEXT WEEK. DEEPENING  
WAVE WILL EJECT AND CLOSE OFF FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE  
EASTERN CONUS. MODELS STILL VARY QUITE A BIT WITH CUTOFF UPPER  
LOW/SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK, AS WELL AS TEMPERATURE  
PROFILE. GENERALLY KEPT POPS AND TEMPS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST,  
HOWEVER DID BUMP POPS UP TO LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN UPPER  
SANDUSKY TO MEADVILLE PA LINE AS CONVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS YIELD  
HIGHER CONFIDENCE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION WILL  
AFFECT BE A FOCUS FOR LOW CEILINGS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE FIRST  
HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD. LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO TIMING  
OF PRECIP AND CEILING HEIGHTS. MOST OF THE PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL  
BE FROM AROUND 14Z THROUGH 21Z OR SO AS A LOW MOVES ALONG THIS  
FRONT. SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT KMFD  
AND KCAK, BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAF BASED ON  
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. LOWER CEILINGS MAY LINGER ALONG THE  
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT  
POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT TIME THIS EVENING NORTH NEAR LAKE ERIE.  
 
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR AND SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH  
TUESDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE EARLY THIS MORNING.  
WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTH TO AROUND 10-15 KNOTS THIS  
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL BACK  
NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND  
APPROACHES THE LAKE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS MAY REACH 20-25 KTS  
BUT GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED. THE LOW WILL FORCE A WARM FRONT NORTH  
ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY WITH WINDS BACKING SOUTHERLY AND EVENTUALLY  
SOUTHWESTERLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT THROUGH. GALES ARE  
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...NONE.  
PA...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA  
NEAR TERM...KUBINA  
SHORT TERM...KUBINA  
LONG TERM...GREENAWALT  
AVIATION...GREENAWALT  
MARINE...GREENAWALT  
 
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