398  
FXUS61 KCLE 251424  
AFDCLE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH  
1024 AM EDT SAT MAR 25 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA  
TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE  
LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST AS A WARM  
FRONT SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY FROM ST. LOUIS  
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TO LAKE HURON BY MONDAY MORNING AND TO NEAR  
MAINE BY TUESDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST  
ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL  
BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE LATTER  
HALF OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
SHARP GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN PLACE THIS MORNING  
WITH INLAND AREAS NEAR 60 DEGREES AND AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE  
LAKESHORE CLOSER TO 40 WITH A NORTHEAST WIND. THIS SPREAD WILL  
ONLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS AREAS FROM MARION TO CANTON  
TRY TO SNEAK INTO THE LOW 70S AGAIN. SO FAR THIS MORNING, BAND  
OF STEADY SHOWERS HAS BEEN FOCUSED ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE  
ERIE. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TODAY REMAINS NEAR THE TOLEDO  
AREA AS MOISTURE STREAMS AROUND THE RIDGE AND ALONG THE  
NORTHEAST LAKESHORE AS THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. DID  
ALLOW FOR SOME PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE SOUTH TODAY AS  
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME BREAKS DEVELOPING.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...  
 
A PESKY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MEANDER AROUND THE LAKESHORE THIS  
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PUSHING THE COLDER AIR  
SOUTH. A COUPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVER LAKE ERIE  
TODAY AND ONCE THE SECONDARY WAVE PUSHES EAST THIS AFTERNOON, WE  
SHOULD SEE THE COLD FRONT PUSH SOUTH DURING THE DAY. NOW, HERE IS  
THE BIG FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR TODAY'S FORECAST. THERE IS A HUGE  
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS AS FAR AS POPS GO. THE GFS SAYS 98 PERCENT  
WHILE THE CANADIAN AND NAM BOTH ARE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. SO FAR,  
THE GFS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION  
NORTH OF THE AREA VERY WELL WHILE THE OTHER TWO MODELS SEEM TO BE  
DOING WELL WITH IT. SO, WILL LEAN IN THE DIRECTION OF THE NAM AND  
CANADIAN MODELS FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY. CUT WAY BACK ON POPS FOR  
TODAY SINCE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THE COLD FRONT SAGGING  
SOUTH. DUE TO THE MILD AIR IN PLACE, CAN'T RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM  
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTH  
SHORE OF LAKE ERIE ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  
TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE A BIT OF A MESS TODAY AS WELL. SO FAR  
WE HAVE SEEN THE COLD FRONT MEANDER BACK AND FORTH OVER THE  
CLEVELAND HOPKINS AIRPORT CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 50S  
AND THEN CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S. FURTHER SOUTH AWAY FROM THE LAKE  
SHOULD SEE THE MILDER TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS UNTIL THE  
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. BIG CONCERN IS WILL IT REACH THE 70S BEFORE  
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL TRY TO TIME THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH  
LOCATION OF THE FRONT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
LARGE NEARLY CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EVER SO SLOWLY EAST  
ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AT THIS TIME WILL PLAY A  
ROLE IN THE WEATHER CONDITIONS WE SEE TONIGHT. HAD TO CUT BACK ON  
POPS AGAIN FOR TONIGHT AND HOLD OFF PRECIPITATION THREAT UNTIL  
SUNDAY AND MAINLY IN THE WEST DUE TO THE SLOW TIMING OF THE LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM. EVENTUALLY, SHOWERS MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA  
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THEN, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE  
VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PUSH EAST INTO THE AREA  
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION THEN EXITS STAGE RIGHT  
AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY NIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE OF  
HIGH PRESSURE.  
 
TEMPERATURES THROUGH PERIOD REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE AS WARM AIR  
ADVECTION BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE AS COLD FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF THE  
AREA AND BECOMES A WARM FRONT AGAIN SUNDAY. AS LARGE LOW SLOWLY  
MOVES NORTHEAST, WE WILL SEE THE FORECAST AREA REMAINING IN THE WARM  
SECTOR DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES IN THE  
60S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE 50S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
THE LONG TERM BEGINS WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH  
ACROSS THE LAKES INTO THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW REASONABLY  
DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST AND  
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CANADA WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS TO ILLINOIS BY FRIDAY 12Z. DEEP MOISTURE WILL MOVE  
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE LOW ON THURSDAY AND WILL CONTINUE  
THROUGH FRIDAY. WILL BRING CHANCE POPS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY IN  
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY LOOK GOOD THURSDAY NIGHT  
THROUGH FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO EARLY TODAY BUT HAVE  
DIPPED TO MVFR IN NORTHWEST PA AS THE FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE  
DROPPED TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE. TO OUR NORTH CONDITIONS  
ARE MVFR AND IFR. GUIDANCE FOR TODAY REMAINS BIPOLAR WITH THE  
GFS SUGGESTING WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE DAY  
ACROSS THE AREA VS THE NAM WHICH SHOWS RESTRICTIONS MAINLY AT  
KTOL AND KERI. HAVE INCORPORATED TRENDS OF BOTH WITH KTOL AND  
KERI MVFR AND OCCASIONALLY IFR THROUGH THE DAY. ELSEWHERE WILL  
BEGIN SATURDAY VFR AND GRADUALLY LOWER CIGS TO MVFR THROUGH THE  
DAY OR THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT THE NAM DOES BRING CONDITIONS  
DOWN TO MVFR HOWEVER MAINLY VISIBILITIES WITH CIGS LIFTING AS  
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHEAST SUGGESTING THE FRONT MAY BE  
LIFTING BACK NORTH. CONFIDENCE WAVERING OVERNIGHT SINCE IF THE  
FRONT REMAINS OVER OR SOUTH OF THE AREA CIGS MAY REMAIN MVFR OR  
LOWER.  
 
OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON-VFR SUNDAY NIGHT. NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN  
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
STATIONARY FRONT JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE  
LAKE EARLY TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST DURING  
THE AFTERNOON LIKELY REACHING 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THIS WILL LAST INTO  
THE NIGHT BEFORE VEERING SOUTHEAST AND DECREASING TOWARDS MORNING  
SUNDAY. WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH WILL BEGIN AT 4PM  
TODAY AND LAST UNTIL 10AM SUNDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE BEFORE  
10AM SUNDAY BUT WAVES MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER TO DIMINISH. THE FRONT  
WILL LIKELY MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS WEAKENING  
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO LAKE MICHIGAN. THE LOW  
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CANADA MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY  
TUESDAY ANOTHER LOW WILL FOLLOW, THIS ONE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS  
LAKE ERIE. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW. WEDNESDAY HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.  
 

 
   
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...NONE.  
PA...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT  
SUNDAY FOR LEZ143>149.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY  
NEAR TERM...KEC/LOMBARDY  
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY  
LONG TERM...TK  
AVIATION...TK  
MARINE...TK  
 
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