004  
FXUS61 KCLE 190131  
AFDCLE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH  
931 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL  
DRIFT EAST AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW  
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DRIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST  
AREA THIS WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED THIS EVENING AND  
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE 60S AT MOST INLAND  
SITES. ONLY CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATED WAS TO LOWER MIN  
TEMPERATURES BY A DEGREE OR TWO AT A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY  
COOLER LOCATIONS.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE  
NEAR TERM. CU FIELD OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL CLEAR AFTER  
SUNSET TONIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 50S OVERNIGHT. THE  
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN,  
WILL DRIFT EAST INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK TOMORROW. THIS WILL SET UP  
A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A GRADUAL WARM UP. HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD  
PEAK IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE  
OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY SETTING UP A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER  
PATTERN FOR THIS WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
FAIRLY SLOW WET PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL  
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE UPPER  
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY  
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY  
SUNDAY. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO THE ATLANTIC AND GULF OF  
MEXICO MOISTURE SOURCES AND BRING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW  
PRESSURE AND RELATED SURFACE LOW RETROGRADE SOUTHWEST, SOME SLIGHTLY  
WARMER AIR WILL TRY TO ROTATE INTO THE SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE BY  
SUNDAY. HOWEVER, WITH THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND  
CLOUDS PRESENT THROUGH THE PERIOD, TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD BACK A  
TAD. SHOOTING FOR NEAR NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THIS 3 DAY  
PERIOD.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, BUT TO  
WHAT DEGREE AND THE DETAILS ARE YET TO BE DETERMINED. UPPER LOW FROM  
THE WEEKEND WILL BE DISSOLVING AND HAVE PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISHING  
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. PRECIP CHANCES HAVE TO CONTINUE INTO  
TUESDAY AND PROBABLY WEDNESDAY AS WE THEN HAVE A FRONT ATTEMPTING TO  
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THIS WILL BE A  
SLOWLY EVOLVING PATTERN WITH A STRONG ATLANTIC RIDGE AND A STRONG  
WEST COAST RIDGE. TEMPERATURES THOUGH WILL BE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE  
PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH  
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE CUMULUS FIELD IS  
CURRENTLY DISSIPATING AND WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES AND CALM  
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST  
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE  
CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST.  
 
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WITH  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING ON THE LAKE AND BE  
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TOMORROW. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE WINDS WILL  
TAKE PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SHIFT TO A  
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE HIGH PRESSURE AND AHEAD OF THE  
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS WILL REMAIN UP AT AROUND 15  
KNOTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH SATURDAY TO 10 TO 15  
KNOTS. FURTHER DIMINISHING WILL TAKE PLACE BY SUNDAY AS SURFACE LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE REGION. GRADIENT BEGINS TO  
SLACKEN BY MONDAY AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...NONE.  
PA...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...DJB  
NEAR TERM...DJB/KEC  
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY  
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN  
AVIATION...SAUNDERS  
MARINE...OUDEMAN  
 
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