652
FXUS61 KCLE 072046
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
346 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
SYNOPSIS
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT PASSES MAINLY NORTH
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE A WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
WEAK COLD FRONT APPEARS AS IF IT WILL CLIP THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
TONIGHT. THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO WEATHER...NOT EVEN CLOUDS...WITH THE
FRONT. WIND WILL BE LIGHTENING UP TONIGHT SO A WIND SHIFT MAY NOT
OCCUR AS THE WIND MAY JUST BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY LATE
TONIGHT. WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE I DOUBT
THERE WILL BE MUCH IF ANY CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS MAY
POOL NEAR THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SO I SUPPOSE PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE BUT PROBABLY NOT DENSE...NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTION IN
THE PUBLIC ZONE/TEXT/GRAPHICAL FORECAST. VERY WARM AIR TO THE WEST
AND SOUTH AND AS LONG AS THE WIND STAYS UP TONIGHT THE TEMPS WILL
NOT FALL MUCH AFTER THE INITIAL DROP AFTER SUNSET. WIND WILL
PROBABLY BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH ACROSS INLAND NW OHIO FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING LATER TONIGHT AND PROTECTED AREAS WILL GET
COOLER OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL LIKELY HOLD UP IN THE MID/UPPER 40S
WITH LOWER 50S NEAR LAKE ERIE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST SUNDAY AND THE TRAILING END OF THE
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE. NOTHING TO THE WEST BUT A DRY AND WARM
AIRMASS. GFS/MAV MOS GUIDANCE IS WARM SUNDAY AND I BELIEVE EVERY
DEGREE OF IT WITH MID AND UPPER 60S LIKELY IN MOST AREAS. THE
SOUTH WIND MAY TAKE A WHILE TO GET GOING AGAIN ACROSS NW PA AND
THE WIND MAY COME ONSHORE ALONG THE EAST LAKESHORE EAST OF
CLEVELAND WHERE TEMPS MAY BE SUPPRESSED A FEW DEGREES.
TROPICAL SYSTEM IDA DOES NOT APPEAR AS IF IT WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD
SO WE WILL WAIT FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT. MODELS INDICATE SOME
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY BUT NO REASON TO THINK IT WILL NOT
BE AS WARM ON MONDAY AS SUNDAY...IF NOT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER.
FORECAST WILL BE A COUPLE OF CATEGORIES ABOVE GUIDANCE WHICH
TENDS TO GET PULLED DOWN BY CLIMO THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MODELS VARY IN TIMING OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. THE NAM/WRF IS
GETTING FASTER BY THE MINUTE BRINGING THE FRONT IN EARLY MONDAY
NIGHT. MOST MODELS BRING THE FRONT ACROSS NW OHIO BEFORE 12Z
TUESDAY. MOST IF NOT ALL THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT
SO VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING. THE GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS VERY LOW POP GUIDANCE FOR
TUESDAY BUT ONE WOULD HAVE TO THINK THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A
FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
IT BRIEFLY GETS COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WITH FLOW TRYING TO BECOME ANTICYCLONIC
WE TYPICALLY DO NOT HAVE MUCH LAKE EFFECT ESPECIALLY WITH
MARGINALLY COLD TEMPERATURES. THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT WEDNESDAY AND
WE WILL ABRUPTLY FIND TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WHICH WILL
PROBABLY FEEL A LITTLE CHILLY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE AREA. ECMWF SLIGHTLY QUICKER
BUT EITHER WAY LOOKS LIKE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. AT MOST CAN
SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER AND DEPARTING CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OH
AND NW PA DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGH SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST. HIGHS
SHOULD WARM TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY
FLOW. FOR NOW HAVE TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR FRIDAY...BUT CAN SEE
THEM CLOSER TO OR EVEN A FEW ABOVE 60. GUIDANCE APPEARING TO DIVERGE
FOR THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD WITH GFS INDICATING LOW PRESSURE WITH
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH GREAT LAKES REGION. ECMWF SHOWING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW INDICATED ONLY SLGT CHC POPS WITH
TEMPS NEAR GUIDANCE VALUES GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.
AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. WINDS 10-15KT WITH GUSTS 20-25KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. GUIDANCE
INDICATING HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH RADIATING CONDITIONS WOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES OR LOWER CLOUDS TO DEVELOP LATER OVERNIGHT.
IF WINDS DO CONTINUE AROUND 5KT OVERNIGHT CLOUDS WILL BE MORE
LIKELY. MENTIONED MAINLY MVFR VIS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITH MOST
CONFIDENT FOR IFR AT FDY. SITES FURTHER EAST MENTIONED SOME SCT
LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOPING WITH POSSIBLE GOING BKN LATE CREATING MVFR
CIGS. EXPECTING ANY MVFR CONDITIONS TO END BY 14Z SUN.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.
MVFR CEILINGS /VISIBILITIES WITH SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY AROUND OR JUST SLIGHTLY AFTER
SUNSET WHICH IN TURN WILL ALLOW WAVES TO COME DOWN ALSO. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE OVER THE LAKE SUNDAY WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. A COLD FRONT LOCATED NORTH OF THE LAKE WILL TURN
WINDS MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT ON MONDAY.
THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LAKE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY HEADLINES
WITH STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TURNING NORTHERLY. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR QUIETER
CONDITIONS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ142>149.
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...ABE
MARINE...ABE
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