991
FXUS61 KCLE 210433
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1133 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
AN INVERTED TROF DEVELOP SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT OVER EASTERN OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
QUICK UPDATE COMING FOR MINOR CHANGES. WILL REMOVE ALL MENTION OF
PRECIP OVERNIGHT. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW STRAY SPRINKLES...BUT
NOTHING TO WORRY ABOUT. CLEARING CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS IN THIS
EVENING. MODELS KEEP FAIRLY HIGH MOISTURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
12Z. THERE COULD BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE IN THE WEST AND
SOUTH. WILL NOT CHANGE TEMP FORECAST GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS BUT IF
CLEARING DOES OCCUR...TEMPS COULD GET CHILLY.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
THE MORNING WILL START CLOUDY BUT THEN WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN THE
AFTERNOON IS TOUGH THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
AREA SO THE SUBSIDENCE MAY TRY TO EAT AWAY AT THE CLOUDS. AT THIS
TIME AM LEANING TOWARD MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT WE DEFINITELY MAY HAVE
SOME AFTERNOON SUN. WITH MORE CLOUDS THEN SUN GOING WITH THE LOWER
MOS GUIDANCE.
PARTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GUIDANCE LOWS AND HIGHS
LOOK REASONABLE.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THE NAM AND GFS HAVE AN INVERTED TROF ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE NAM IS DRY WITH THIS
FEATURE WHILE THE GFS AND SREF HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA.
DELAYED THE THREAT BASED ON THE 12Z RUNS OF MOST MODELS. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES SEEM OK.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
WITH SOME SHOWERS...THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THE GFS REALLY
COOLS TEMPERATURES OFF QUICKLY...BUT FOR THE TIME BEING JUST LEFT
IT AS RAIN AS THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE COOLEST OF THE MODELS.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN ACTIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL PRECEDE THE
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND MOVE THROUGH AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS INITIAL SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHC
OF RAIN SHOWERS.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS. THIS MUCH COLDER AIR
MASS WILL GRADUALLY MIX THE RAIN WITH SNOW WET SNOW ON THANKSGIVING
DAY...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY ALL SNOW THANKSGIVING NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
RIGHT NOW I WOULD THINK THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT...EXCEPT NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WHERE SOME
ACCUMULATING AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY AND BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO AFFECT ALL TAF SITES. MY DILEMMA THIS
EVENING IS HOW TO HANDLE CLOUD COVER AS A QUICK GLANCE AT THE
SATELLITE REVEALS THAT IT MAY TRY AND CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT. I THINK
FDY MAY CLEAR OUT EARLIER THAN I HAD THOUGHT...BUT I STILL THINK
THAT WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND ANOTHER H5 SHORTWAVE ON THE
WAY...MVFR CLOUD COVER WILL HANG ON AT ALL MOST SITES THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. I WENT OPTIMISTIC AT FDY AND IMPROVED
CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR BEFORE DAYBREAK.
OUTLOOK...MVFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MARINE
ON AND OFF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON LAKE ERIE FOR THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE
TONIGHT AS THE WEST FLOW DIMINISHES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
RELATIVE LIGHT FLOW UNTIL THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE LAKE SUNDAY AND
AN EAST WIND INCREASES ENOUGH TO PROBABLY BRING BACK A MARGINAL SCA
FOR AT LEAST THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE. FLOW VEERING TO THE SOUTH
AND DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT WILL END THE SCA FOR A WHILE LATER SUN
NIGHT THROUGH TUE BUT AN INCREASING SW FLOW WED LOOKS LIKELY TO
PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS AGAIN AT SOME POINT. RIGHT NOW THE
MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT FOR THE TUE THROUGH WED
NIGHT TIME FRAME SO NOT CONFIDENT AS TO WHEN THE SCA MAY AGAIN BE
NEEDED.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...BC/KIELTYKA
AVIATION...LEINS
MARINE...ADAMS
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