205
FXUS61 KCLE 091551
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1051 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2010
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN
ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW STRENGTHENS ALONG THE EAST COAST. A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF COLDER AIR WILL THEN LINGER OVER THE AREA
INTO FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS VERY GOOD SO ONLY MINOR CHANGE PLANNED FOR
THE MORNING UPDATE. WILL LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES AWAY
FROM THE LAKE SHORE WHERE STEADY SNOW IS FALLING. CURRENT SNOW
FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LATEST
EXAMINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL
DEFINE MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF THE LAKE ERIE TO GA
WITH A LARGE SNOW SHIELD EXTENDING FROM EASTERN LOWER MI THROUGH
MOST OF OHIO TO KY. KCLE RADAR HOURLY SNOWFALL ESTIMATES SHOW
SNOWFALL RATES OF 0.5 TO OVER 1.0 INCH PER HOUR SE OF TOL WHICH
MAY BE OVER DONE. EXPECT AFTERNOON ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
OVER THE WEST WITH LESSER AMOUNTS NEAR AN INCH NEAR ERI.
HAVE SOME CONCERN AMOUNT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA AS A DRY SLOT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
AND GREATLY DIMINISH SNOWFALL FOR A TIME. WILL EXAMINE THIS
CLOSELY WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AND GETS WRAPPED UP INTO ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST. SNOW COULD STILL
BE MODERATE TO HEAVY ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN AREAS WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW EXITS BUT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS STILL MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. WINDS ARE ALSO GOING TO BE
INCREASING DURING THE DAY TOMORROW CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW...SO EVEN WITH SNOWFALL TAPERING OFF WINDS WILL LIKELY HAVE
ENOUGH OF IMPACT TO WARRANT THE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE DAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THEN LIKELY INTO FRIDAY
WITH MOST OF THIS IN THE TRADITIONAL SNOWBELT BUT FLURRIES OR
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
NORTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW AND SOME
LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES EACH DAY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 20S
TO LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS. SOME SINGLE DIGIT LOWS STILL
POSSIBLE WHEN CALM WINDS AND CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHTS OCCUR.
AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST WILL SPREAD SNOW
ACROSS THE FORECAST ROUTES TODAY. DURING THIS TAF PERIOD EXPECT
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO BECOME PROGRESSIVELY LOWER TO IFR
OR NEAR IFR CONDS. THESE CONDS HAVE BEEN STARTING ABOUT 1 HOUR
OR SO AFTER THE SNOW INITIALLY STARTS.
LOW STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS OFF THE LAKE AT KERI STILL HOLDING-
ON...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOMING
MORE EASTERLY AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND 10
TO 20 MPH TONIGHT AND BECOMING NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
ON WEDNESDAY.
THE SNOW SHOULD BE COVERING MOST OF MY TAF SITES BY 14Z THIS
MORNING....AND ABOUT 15Z-16Z AT KERI.
OUTLOOK
MVFR/IFR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL
SNOW. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST NE OH/NW PA THURSDAY.
MARINE
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA LIGHT WINDS
WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASED EASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE CENTER. THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
30 KNOTS WEDNESDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP WINDS AT 30 KNOTS...BUT CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT THE
CHANCE OF GALES LATE WEDNESDAY. WINDS DROP TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS BY
FRIDAY AS THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKENS. A NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY
FLOW WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO A LONG WAVE TROUGH SETS UP
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ003-
006>013-017>023-027>033-036>038-047.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ014-
089.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RANDEL
NEAR TERM...REL
SHORT TERM...RANDEL
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC
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