234
FXUS61 KCLE 062250
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
650 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2008
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN WEAKEN. A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
THE UPPER TROF OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA IS CAUSING ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER A FEW COUNTIES
IN THE EXTREME NORTHEAST. THE AIRMASS IS UNSTABLE SO ALSO ADDED A
THREAT OF THUNDER. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY CLEAR WILL WORK AS THE CUMULUS
IS DECREASING WITH THE TIME OF DAY. HOWEVER...WENT BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE MANSFIELD AREA AS THE CUMULUS WAS THICKER AND WITH
SOME TERRAIN HELP WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO DECREASE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
TOMORROW WILL BE HOT AND HUMID...BUT THE WEAK VORT MAX OVER WV AND
NE OH WILL HAVE MOVED EAST...SO DONT SEE ANYTHING TO KICK OFF ANY
AFTERNOON TSRA...BETTER CHANCE MONDAY NIGHT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS.
LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES TUESDAY SO WENT LIKELY NW OH WITH
SCATTERED TSRA ELSEWHERE TUESDAY. BEST CHC OF TSRA APPEARS TO BE
TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT MOVING FRONT INTO CENTRAL OH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOULD
CLEAR THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN
DIPPING BACK BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. MODELS
DIVERGE BY THE WEEKEND WITH GFS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. GFS DRIVES FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...ECMWF HAS CONSISTENTLY KEPT THE FRONT WELL
NORTH...ALLOWING FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO SAG SOUTH AND MERGE WITH
THE BERMUDA HIGH AND CREATE SEVERAL DAYS OF WARMING SSW FLOW.
ECMWF DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT TO THE AREA UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONSENSUS IS FOR ECMWF SOLUTION AND WILL MAKE FORECAST VERY WARM
WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY NEXT WEEKEND. CANNOT RULE OUT A
THUNDERSTORM BUT WILL KEEP POP LOW AT 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE UNTIL I
SEE A MORE DEFINED TRIGGER.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR YNG SINCE 22Z BUT
OTHERWISE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION ARE QUIET. ONCE THESE
STORMS TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET...SHOULD SEE QUIET VFR WEATHER AT
ALL SITES OVERNIGHT. SOME BRIEF MVFR FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK IS A
POSSIBILITY AT ANY GIVEN SITE BUT I HIT IT ESPECIALLY HARD AT
CAK/YNG. MUCH LIKE SUNDAY...SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON CU DEVELOP AT ALL
SITES AFTER 16Z ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT I HELD OFF ON PRECIP AT TOL/FDY WITH THE
00Z TAF PACKAGE. MENTIONED BKN050CB LATE IN THE PERIOD AT THESE
SITES BUT PRECIP WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...COULD SEE SOME PRECIP IN THE WESTERN SITES MONDAY
EVENING BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE TUESDAY WITH THE
FRONT ITSELF. BRIEF IFR IN THUNDER A POSSIBILITY WITH THE FRONT. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER/HIGH PRESSURE/VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
MARINE
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE ERIE AND SOUTHWEST ONTARIO...
GRADIENT IS NULL AND FLOW IS DRIVEN BY ONSHORE/OFFSHORE THERMAL
GRADIENT. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT THE FLOW WILL COME
AROUND MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH. A LAKE BREEZE LIKELY AGAIN ON MONDAY
AT LEAST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE MAINLY EAST OF CLEVELAND BUT
OVER ALL GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LIGHT SSW. SSW FLOW WILL INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AND WIND
AND WAVES WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WIND AND WAVES COULD REACH SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA SOMETIME WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE WEEK AND
GRADIENT WILL BECOME LIGHT.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...LEINS
MARINE...KOSARIK
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