296  
FXUS61 KILN 291149  
AFDILN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH  
749 AM EDT SAT APR 29 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TODAY ALONG A  
SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WHEN  
THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR LAKE ERIE. A STRONG COLD  
FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL PUSH  
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
WARM FRONT SITUATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER IS THE FOCUS FOR  
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE RESULTING FROM  
MOISTURE TRANSPORTED ON A 35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET LIFTING OVER THE  
FRONT IN THE PRESENCE OF MULTIPLE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES. THESE  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING IN AN ENVIRONMENT CONTAINING LITTLE  
TO NO SURFACE BASED CAPE, WHILE ELEVATED CAPE IS NEAR 1000 J/KG.  
TORRENTIAL RAIN AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL HAVE  
BEEN OCCURRING WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH HAVE BEEN TRAINING  
ACROSS THE SAME LOCATIONS. RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE OVER 2  
INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR MAINLY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.  
 
MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA  
TODAY. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP, AND  
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL PERSIST WITH THE AIRMASS HOLDING 1.6  
INCHES OF PWAT. WILL KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH  
11 AM. BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS, HAVE EXPANDED  
WATCH IN AREA TO INCLUDE PARTS OF CENTRAL OHIO INCLUDING  
COLUMBUS.  
 
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE GENERALLY WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS EARLY  
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, DAYTIME HEATING MAY ALLOW MORE SEVERE  
CELLS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS  
INSTABILITY RISE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY NOTABLY WITH RESPECT TO FRONTAL POSITION.  
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 80S FAR SOUTH, THE MID 70S  
NEAR I-70, AND THE MID 60S FAR NORTH.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
 
 
WARM FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR THE GREAT LAKES  
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT ONLY A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS WEATHER REGIME LACKING DEEP MOISTURE AND  
FAVORABLE FORCING.  
 
SOUTHERLY BREEZES IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL CARRY WARMER  
TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S FORECAST FOR ALL LOCATIONS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WELL STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL  
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.  
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT  
AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTHWEST  
WINDS WILL USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,  
WITH GUSTS REACHING 40 MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON. FOR TUESDAY, HIGH  
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BRING DRY WEATHER, AND GRADUALLY  
SUBSIDING WINDS.  
 
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO THE OHIO  
VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, PRODUCING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR  
SHOWERS. SHOWER CHANCES WILL LINGER FRIDAY UNDER AN UPPER TROUGH  
FOLLOWING THE SURFACE LOW.  
 
EXPECTED CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT POINT TO A COOLING  
TREND. NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S MONDAY WILL SLIP TO  
THE LOWER 60S BY FRIDAY UNDER COLD ADVECTION, CLOUDS AND PRECIP.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
SLOW MOVING FRONT IS THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL  
CONTINUE TO IMPACT TAF SITES WITH LESS THAN IDEAL FLIGHT  
CONDITIONS. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY NOON AT SOUTHERN  
SITES AS THE FRONT LIFTS TO NORTHERN OHIO, CARRYING  
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. MVFR CONDITIONS ACCOMPANYING THE  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TEND TO PERSIST UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AT  
NORTHERN SITES CLOSER TO THE FRONT. WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY  
WITH FRONTAL MOVEMENT, WITH EAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH BY THE END  
OF THE FORECAST. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL LATE IN THE FORECAST AS  
DRIER AIR ARRIVES IN THE WARM SECTOR. SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST OVER  
20 KNOTS AT CVG NEAR THE END OF THEIR 30 HOUR TAF.  
 
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WIND GUSTS TO 35 KT POSSIBLE  
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ042-  
051>055-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.  
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ089>100.  
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-058-  
059-066-073>075-080.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO  
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO  
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO  
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO  
AVIATION...CONIGLIO  
 
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