234  
FXUS61 KILN 250824  
AFDILN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH  
424 AM EDT SUN JUN 25 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TODAY ALONG WITH  
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ON MONDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH  
SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NRN GREAT PLAINS WILL NOSE IN  
TO THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY. COOL AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR  
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL,  
RANGING IN THE 70S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
 
 
THE DIURNAL CU WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET, BUT A ISOLATED CLOUD  
OR TWO COULD DROP THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT IN THE FAST UPPER  
FLOW. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE  
LOWER AND MID 50S.  
 
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT A H5 S/W WILL SWING THROUGH THE BASE OF  
THE UPPER TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS  
IS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MONDAY  
AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. UPPED POPS TO CHANCE  
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT 10  
DEGREES BELOW NORMALS WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 70-75.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR TUESDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER.  
HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER ON TUESDAY, REACHING THE MID 70S.  
 
WITH A TURNING OF WINDS TO THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY, A MORE  
APPRECIABLE WARMUP WILL BEGIN, WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO  
THE 80S.  
 
AS A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BEGINS TO SET UP FOR THURSDAY AND  
BEYOND, MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED, LEADING TO LOWER  
CONFIDENCE -- ESPECIALLY IN PRECIPITATION TIMING THROUGH THE REST OF  
THE WEEK. THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT A FRONTAL ZONE WILL SET UP EAST-TO-  
WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ILN CWA IN THE WARM  
SECTOR WITHIN SOLID DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AS CONVECTION  
DEVELOPS AT THE NORTH END OF THIS WARM SECTOR, AND ALONG THE FRONTAL  
AREA, THERE WILL EVENTUALLY BE SOME PROPAGATION DOWNSTREAM WHICH MAY  
IMPACT THE ILN CWA -- PERHAPS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AND THEN AGAIN  
AS ADDITIONAL WAVES OF PRECIPITATION OCCUR GOING INTO FRIDAY. HOW  
MUCH OF THE CWA REMAINS CAPPED IS A QUESTION, AS IS THE EXACT  
POSITION OF THE FRONT. BECAUSE OF THIS, POPS WILL BE KEPT ON THE  
LOWER SIDE OF THINGS FOR NOW, WITH A MODEL BLEND SUGGESTING HIGHER  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES NORTH OF THE ILN CWA. DIFFERENCES IN THE  
EVOLUTION OF AN UPSTREAM TROUGH GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WILL PRECLUDE  
MORE THAN VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST LATE FRIDAY INTO  
SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE  
PERIOD. SCATTERED TO SOMETIMES BROKEN 5KFT CU DECK WILL PERSIST  
INTO THE EVENING BEFORE CLEARING. WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL PICK  
UP FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND SEE GUSTS TO 20 TO 25KT.  
 
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...AR/SITES  
NEAR TERM...SITES  
SHORT TERM...  
LONG TERM...HATZOS/SITES  
AVIATION...FRANKS  
 
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