471
FXUS61 KILN 261033
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
633 AM EDT SAT APR 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BRINGING COOLER, DRIER CONDITIONS. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ONCE AGAIN. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME BREAKS THAT MAY CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY MORNING. EXPECT CLOUDS TO PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN
CLEAR RELATIVELY QUICKLY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD WITH A VERY
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. ONLY EXPECT TO SEE SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS. THERE
WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
THAN TODAY, REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
H5 RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE MIDWEST REGION AT THE
START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT WE WILL BE IN A WARMING TREND WITH THE
AMPLIFIED RIDGING FEATURE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ON MONDAY, DRIFTING
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH
WILL AID IN USHERING WARM, HUMID AIR, ALLOWING HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. LOWS WILL BE VERY MILD MONDAY NIGHT AS
CLOUD COVERAGE INCREASES FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE ILN FA WILL BE PLANTED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A
SURFACE LOW ON TUESDAY, RESULTING IN THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE
PERIOD. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO SEE A NOTABLE RESPONSE, REACHING
THE MIDDLE 60S DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE WARM, HUMID AIR MASS
WILL CREATE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS, WITH CAPE VALUES REACHING MODERATE
LEVELS. AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND AN EVENTUAL COLD FRONT MOVE
THROUGH THE FA, SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE. STILL
NOTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY, BUT
SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR TO BE MORE IN THE MARGINAL RANGE. CAMS WILL
HELP ASSESS POTENTIAL STORM MODE AND COVERAGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO
TUESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE COLD FRONT SLIDING SOUTH OF OUR CWA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT STALLING JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. POPS
WILL BE LOWER ON WEDNESDAY, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER/STORM
WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN
OH/NORTHERN KY. EVENTUALLY, A ROBUST H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT
FROM THE SOUTHERN CONUS UP INTO THE MIDWEST REGION -- LIKELY ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED COVERAGE IN SHOWERS/STORMS
ACROSS OUR CWA. THE TROUGHING FEATURE PERSISTS INTO FRIDAY AND WILL
LINGER PCPN CHANCES INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
GENERALLY IFR CEILINGS TO START THE PERIOD. THESE WILL LIFT TO MVFR
AND THEN SCATTER OUT AFTER 18Z, EVENTUALLY COMPLETELY CLEARING
TOWARDS 00Z. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KT AT TIMES
DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND VEER DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR TUESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CLARK
AVIATION...
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page