901  
FXUS61 KILN 220216  
AFDILN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH  
1016 PM EDT MON AUG 21 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON  
TUESDAY, THEN DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE REST OF THE  
WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
 
 
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY THIN SOME THROUGH THE NIGHT.  
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE. FORECAST LOWS LOOK REASONABLE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
STRONG H5 S/W WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON  
TUESDAY. LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DROP  
INTO THE REGION 15-18Z. SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS AND CAPE AROUND 700  
J/KG WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. TIMED THE  
CONVECTION THROUGH THE REGION IN THE AFTER ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO  
BE A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. WITH THE REGION IN SLIGHT RISK WILL  
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER.  
 
THERE COULD BE A SECONDARY LINE OF SHOWERS THAT IS LINGERING  
ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE EVENING. AFTER THAT MOVES SOUTH, TUESDAY  
NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
A VERY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE LONG  
TERM PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE  
LONG TERM ON WEDNESDAY. WITH CAA ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT AN EXTENSIVE  
CU FIELD TO DEVELOP. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL WORK INTO  
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR  
A FEW SHOWERS. IN ADDITION EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF CU TO DEVELOP WITH  
CAA.  
 
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE.  
THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW QUICKLY PRECIPITATION BEGINS  
TO WORK INTO THE REGION WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM, HOWEVER TRENDS HAVE  
BEEN TO SLOW DOWN THE PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THIS HAVE SUNDAY  
DAYTIME DRY AND BEGIN TO BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE  
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  
 
DECREASED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FROM THE SUPERBLEND WEDNESDAY  
THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME WILL GENERALLY  
BE IN THE 70S. LOWS WILL TYPICALLY BE IN THE 50S, HOWEVER SOME  
ISOLATED UPPER 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE  
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE  
SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE  
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THERE  
WILL BE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.  
CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 12Z. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP TOWARDS  
MIDDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WITH THE CHANCE OF STORMS  
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LATEST GUIDANCE  
SUGGESTS THAT KCVG/KLUK AND KILN HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE OF BEING  
IMPACTED.  
 
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.  
 

 
   
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...HAINES/SITES  
NEAR TERM...  
SHORT TERM...SITES  
LONG TERM...  
AVIATION...  
 
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