331
FXUS61 KILN 221012
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
612 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COOLER AIRMASS ARRIVES TO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY AND TEMPERATURES FALL WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
FOLLOWING WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MID LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
REGION, ALLOWING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. RIGHT NOW,
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT FRIDAY'S HIGHS REACH THE LOW 80S ALONG I-70,
UPPER 80S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. WITH THAT BEING SAID, LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGS AROUND THE REGION, RESULTING IN PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY FRIDAY
EVENING. SIMILAR TO THURSDAY, SHOULD THICK CLOUD COVER HANG ON LONGER
THAN ANTICIPATED, HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 70S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/
BY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE HIGH WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST, THOUGH OUR
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING TO THE MID 60S
WITH DRY WEATHER. TO OUR WEST, A SHORTWAVE WILL BE INCHING CLOSER TO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION, SO SOME UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS BLOWOFF WILL BEING
TO CREEP INTO THE REGION.
SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND AS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION WILL OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE PUSHING TOWARD THE
REGION FROM OUR WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER 80S,
POSSIBLY LOW 90S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AND MID 80S NEAR THE I-70
CORRIDOR.
MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY SURFACE BOUNDARY EXISTS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
CWA, ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. A WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, PROVIDING SOME WEAK FORCING THAT
MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS, PARTICULARLY IN
NORTH CENTRAL KY/ SOUTHERN OH.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
PATTERN CHANGE IN STORE FOR NEXT WEEK AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST. AN INITIAL COLD FRONT
WILL SIGNAL THE START OF THIS COOLER, DRIER PATTERN SATURDAY NIGHT,
WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SUPPOSE THERE
COULD BE A SHOWER WITH THE INITIAL FROPA, ESPECIALLY IN OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
WITH BELOW NORMAL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD DURING THE DAY AND MUCH COOLER AT NIGHT.
REINFORCING DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP THE TROUGH IN PLACE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST UNTIL
THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS TO OUR EAST TO CLOSE THE PERIOD ON
THURSDAY.
AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
TAF SITES BOUNCING AROUND BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR AS A DECK OF STRATUS
LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS, EVENTUALLY SCATTERING OUT THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, CIRRUS BLOWOFF MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM.
LIGHT NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY, AROUND 5 KNOTS. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WINDS GO NEARLY CALM BEFORE
SWINGING AROUND TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY SATURDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CA
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CA
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