518  
FXUS61 KILN 251404  
AFDILN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH  
1004 AM EDT SAT MAR 25 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE WARM  
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER TODAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN THE LOW IS  
FORECASTED TO TRAVEL TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER UPPER  
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY  
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY PROVIDING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AREA.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE CAN BE SEEN ROTATING ACROSS  
THE MIDWESTERN UNITED STATES THIS MORNING ON WV WITH A STALLED  
BOUNDARY LOCATED IN NORTHERN OHIO. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY  
PULL NORTHEAST TODAY WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN  
OHIO PULLING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE  
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WEAK PV WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA  
ALONG WITH WEAK WAA. THIS MORNINGS KILN SOUNDING REVEALED A PWAT  
OF 0.83" (WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS  
TIME OF YEAR) WITH AN 850MB TEMPERATURE OF 10 DEGREES C.  
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON SHOW PWATS CONTINUING TO  
SLOWLY RISE BUT A STUBBORN CAP SLOW TO ERODE. GIVEN THIS CAP IT  
IS NOT SURPRISING THAT HIGH RES MODELS DON'T SHOW MUCH  
PRECIPITATION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. NOT UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING  
DOES A BAND OF PRECIP FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ARRIVE ACROSS OUR  
FAR WESTERN ZONES. GIVEN THE MENTIONED ABOVE HAVE DELAYED ONSET  
OF PRECIPITATION A COUPLE OF HOURS LATER.  
 
PREV DISCUSSION->  
A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO  
MISSOURI TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY IN THE  
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW, PRODUCING MAINLY MID AND HIGH  
CLOUDS. HOWEVER, A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP  
PRIMARILY OVER WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON IN A MODESTLY  
UNSTABLE REGIME CONTAINING UNDER 200 J/KG CAPE. HAVE BACKED OFF  
POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS DUE TO SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE  
SYSTEM.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL BE CLOSE TO 20  
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
 
 
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING FROM MISSOURI TO CHICAGO  
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING  
AS IT MOVES INTO A BROAD UPPER RIDGE, A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE  
AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL IMPACT THE ILN AREA. SHOWERS WILL  
BECOME WIDESPREAD TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, AND THUNDERSTORMS  
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE  
LIMITED BY MARGINAL CAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REDUCED BY CLOUDS AND PRECIP, WITH  
HIGHS IN THE 60S EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. INITIAL UPPER LEVEL  
AND SURFACE LOW TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY  
NIGHT. PRECIPITATION TO COME TO A TEMPORARY END SUNDAY NIGHT INTO  
MONDAY, AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF.  
 
MONDAY STARTS OUT DRY EARLY WITH PCPN OVERSPREADING THE REGION, AS  
NEXT SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. IN THE WARM MOIST  
ENVIRONMENT TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY TO RISE TO HIGHS FROM THE UPPER  
60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.  
 
AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST THE PCPN TO END TUESDAY, AS  
SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES  
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, WITH TUESDAY'S HIGHS RANGING FROM THE  
LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH.  
 
SURFACE HIGH TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. THIS  
WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL. HIGHS  
ON WEDNESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 60S  
SOUTHEAST.  
 
MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE ON HANDLING LATE WEEK WEATHER SYSTEM. GFS  
SHOWING AN OPEN WAVE IN SPLIT FLOW PATTERN, WHILE THE MORE  
CONSISTENT ECMWF AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS SHOW A CLOSED LOW. WILL  
TREND THE FORECAST TOWARD THE ECMWF/CANADIAN. WILL BRING CHANCE POPS  
IN THURSDAY AND INCREASE THESE POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO  
FRIDAY, AS THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFT NORTHEAST  
FROM THE MID MS VLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AS INSTBY INCREASES WILL  
INCLUDE A CHANCE OF THUNDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING.  
HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GENERALLY 60 TO 65.  
 
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END EARLY SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOISTURE  
WILL INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE  
CENTERED FAR TO THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS  
THROUGH TODAY.  
 
AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER, SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE PICTURE  
STARTING AROUND 23Z AT CVG, WITH PRECIP THEN PUSHING NORTHEAST  
ACROSS THE REST OF TAF SITES. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL  
EVENTUALLY LOWER BY THE END OF THE FORECAST AS THE BOUNDARY  
LAYER APPROACHES SATURATION. CVG AND LUK MAY SEE MVFR BY THE END  
OF THE PERIOD.  
 
SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AT  
DAY AND ILN. REST OF SITES SHOULD SEE ABOUT 10 KNOTS SUSTAINED.  
WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHEAST AS THE LOW CENTER LIFTS TOWARD THE  
WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  
 
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE  
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/HAINES  
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HAINES  
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO  
LONG TERM...AR  
AVIATION...CONIGLIO  
 
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