571
FXUS61 KILN 240840
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
440 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2008
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. EXPECT SOME CUMULUS
TO DEVELOP WITH HEATING IN ADDITION TO CIRRUS STARTING TO SPILL
INTO THE REGION. BUT OVERALL IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. FORECAST LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS SUGGESTS HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE AREA TOMORROW. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A SHORT
WAVE TOWARDS THE REGION LATE TOMORROW WITH THE MAIN AFFECTS
APPEARING TO SLIDE JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE
00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE RELIED ON 21Z SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE WHICH STILL
SUGGESTS THAT LOW CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND EXIT THE
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING. HAVE PLACED HIGHEST POPS WITH THIS
FEATURE. THERE COULD BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LEANED TOWARDS NAM MOS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES. ETA MOS NUMBERS WERE
PREFERRED FOR FRIDAYS HIGHS WHILE SATURDAYS HIGHS WERE A MOS
BLEND.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN CENTERED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. OPERATIONAL MODELS
ARE SHOWING RATHER VARYING SOLUTIONS TOWARDS MID WEEK AS THEY
AMPLIFY DIFFERENT SYSTEMS APPROACHING THE REGION. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY WITH THESE FORECASTS HAVE OPTED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE
00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS SUGGESTS THAT BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUT HAVE
INCLUDED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MIST AND ASSOCIATED LOW CEILING MAY FORM 08Z-12Z AT LUK. CVG MAY
SEE MIST AS WELL. OTHERWISE...TAF SITES WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS.
SKY COVER WILL CONSIST OF SCATTERED CLOUDS...MAINLY CUMULUS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHWEST AND WEST AFTER 12Z.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page