183  
FXUS61 KILN 190201  
AFDILN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH  
1001 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO  
THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER  
ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
 
 
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK WITH MID TO UPPER 50S  
MOST LOCATION. SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE SW FORECAST AREA NEAR AND  
SOUTH OF CINCINNATI WHERE MORE HIGH CLOUDS AND THE BEGININNING  
OF NEUTRAL TO WEAK WAA WILL YIELD LOW 60S THIS AREA.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON  
THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE END  
OF THE SHORT TERM AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE  
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON THURSDAY WITH  
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS FORECAST TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE MID  
OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN  
MCS AS SUGGESTED BY SEVERAL OF THE CAMS, MOVING EAST INTO OUR AREA  
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY, WOULD EXPECT THIS  
TO BE IN A WEAKENING STATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA. EXACTLY HOW  
THIS MORNING MCS PLAYS OUT COULD AFFECT HOW WELL WE DESTABILIZE  
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS THOUGH IS FOR GOOD  
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST,POSSIBLY NOSING UP INTO  
MAINLY SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON INTO  
EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME STRONGER SHORT WAVE  
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE  
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM  
DEVELOPMENT FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  
WHILE THE BETTER FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHWEST, WIND  
FIELDS/INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR AREA WILL LIKELY STILL BE STRONG  
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A LOWER END THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE  
MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS  
BEING ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST, CLOSEST TO THE BETTER FORCING AND  
INSTABILITY.  
 
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE MID OHIO  
VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP A  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND  
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY. WOULD EXPECT THIS TO AT LEAST HAVE SOME  
DIURNAL COMPONENT TO IT AND WILL GENERALLY HAVE LIKELY POPS DURING  
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, TRIMMING BACK  
TO CHANCE LATER IN THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS. FOR MONDAY  
WILL THEN JUST LINGER SOME LOWER CHANCE POPS. WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING  
WILL TRY TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK WHICH SHOULD ALLOW  
FOR A DECREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.  
 
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 70S  
TO AROUND 80. WE SHOULD THEN SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS  
BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S THROUGH MID WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AND DRY LOW LEVELS LINGERING THROUGH  
MUCH OF TAF PERIOD WILL RESULT IN JUST A FEW VFR CUMULUS AGAIN  
DURING DIURNAL PERIOD FROM ABOUT 15-23Z. NO BR EXPECTED  
OVERNIGHT WITH THE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS. WINDS SLACKENING TO LESS  
THAN 05KTS OVERNIGHT, THEN PIVOTING TO THE SOUTHEAST.  
 
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM FRIDAY THROUGH  
SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK  
NEAR TERM...JDR  
SHORT TERM...NOVAK  
LONG TERM...JGL  
AVIATION...JDR  
 
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