276
FXUS61 KILN 090228
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
928 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY
BRINGING A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRY WEATHER WILL MAKE A RETURN BY WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP OFF INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 40S IN AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY DECOUPLED. MEANWHILE...TEMPS
ELSEWHERE ARE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. WE SHOULD SEE A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT
DO NOT THINK THIS WILL HAVE TOO MUCH EFFECT ON RADIATIONAL
COOLING. HAVE THEREFORE LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY
FOR LOW LYING/OUTLYING AREAS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON PRECIP CHANCES ON TUESDAY. MONDAY WILL
BE ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER
SOMEWHAT IN TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP FOR TUESDAY. THE COLD
FRONT HAS SLOWED DOWN DUE TO REMAINS OF IDA AND WHAT HAPPENS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE REMAINS OF IDA GO. SOUTHERN
SYSTEM OR REMAINS OF IDA WILL TRY TO ROB COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM OF
MOISTURE. KEPT CHANCE PRECIP ON TUESDAY AND TAPERED PRECIP OFF
TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN AND PUSH SYSTEM
TO THE EAST. FOR MONDAY WENT WITH WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES. TUESDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND CLOUD COVER.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE RETURNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH ALONG
WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY
BUT THEN WARM THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND REMAIN MILD DURING
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL SLIDE SLOWLY OFF TO THE
EAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLY SOME MVFR VALLEY FOG
AT KLUK...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JGL
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