890
FXUS61 KILN 271151
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
651 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2009
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT QUICKLY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTROL
THE REGIONS WEATHER INTO EARLY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY BRINGING THE NIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
LINGERING DZ IS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE FA...MAINLY FROM A PMH-
ILN-DAY LINE. UPDATED TO ADD DZ FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/
SFC RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS FA TNGT ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR. RIDGE
WILL BE E OF THE FA BY 12Z SAT. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND WITH SW WINDS A DECENT WARM UP.
MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE H5 FLOW ZONAL SAT NGT INTO
SUNDAY. ALL BRING A CDFNT INTO THE REGION AS A S/W SWINGS THRU THE
LAKES. UPPED POPS A LITTLE SUN AFTN IN THE NW...BUT STILL LEFT
THEM IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW.
WENT A LITTLE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON SAT WITH THE
EXPECTED SUN...OTHERWISE CLOSE TO THE GUIDANCE NUMBERS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE EXTENDED WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AND DEVELOPING FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP SPREAD INTO REGION. MODELS BRINGING BEST RAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS WITH GREATER
CONFIDENCE OF SOLUTION. SMALL CHC FOR SUN AFTN. LEFT SMALL CHC FOR
MONDAY NIGHT FOR NOW SHOULD MODELS SLOW A BIT. SHOULD BE RAIN
THROUGH PERIOD.
MODELS HAVE CHANGED ON SYSTEM EVOLVING BY WEDNESDAY AND THURS.
TAKING MORE EASTERN TRACK OF LOW WHICH LEAVES AREA DRY WITH COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON COMING IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WILL TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK AT MORE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEFORE ISSUANCE OF FCST IF ANY
CHANGES ARE NEEDED. TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY AT OR A LITTLE BELOW
GUIDANCE THROUGH PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
CONTINUED -SHSN AND RASN WITH LL TROUGH VERY SLOW TO SWING THROUGH
THE AREA. WHILE IT LOOKS LIKE DEEPEST MOISTURE FINALLY PULLING
EAST AND TAKING IFR CIGS WITH IT...MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF TODAY. THE LINGERING SHSN SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANYTHING
BELOW HIGH MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS.
ONCE TROUGH PULLS THROUGH...SHOULD BE A FAIRLY QUICK TRANSITION TO
VFR WITH ONLY FEW CU TO SKC. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE TN
AND SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY TAKES OVER FOR THE END OF THE
PERIOD...WITH LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SW.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JDR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page