899  
FXUS61 KRLX 240751  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
251 AM EST FRI NOV 24 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A COLD  
FRONT CROSSES SATURDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. COOLER SUNDAY.  
MILDER THROUGH NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 1230 AM FRIDAY...  
 
QUIET DAY EXPECTED TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AS HIGH  
PRESSURE GRADUALLY DRIFTS EAST. STAYED ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF  
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE TODAY FOR HIGH, WITH GENERALLY 50S TO  
AROUND 60 DEGREES.  
 
FAIRLY WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES TONIGHT. HAVE CLOUDS ON THE  
INCREASE, WITH SOME LOW END POPS ARRIVING PRIOR TO SUNRISE  
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTHERLY  
WINDS SHOULD KEEP HILLTOPS AND RIDGES A BIT WARMER, BUT LOW  
SPOTS MAY DECOUPLE BEFORE THE CLOUDS ARRIVE. THIS MAKES THE LOW  
FORECAST A BIT TOUGH, ENDED UP A DEGREE OR SO WARMING ACROSS THE  
WEST, AND A BIT COOLER EAST WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LATER.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...  
 
WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING PROVIDING  
A REINFORCEMENT TO MORE FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF  
THE WEEKEND, BUT THIS WILL BE THE LAST COOLER PUSH OF AIR FOR A  
WHILE. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED, POSSIBLY CHANGING TO LIGHT  
NON ACCUMULATING SNOW ABOVE 3000FT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES  
BACK INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FOR  
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...  
 
COLDER AIR STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST  
WITH HEIGHTS MOVING BACK TOWARDS 570DKM AND 850HPA TEMPERATURES  
IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. MILD WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH  
MID WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR AN AIRMASS CHANGE ARRIVES  
FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 1230 AM FRIDAY...  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH GENERALLY  
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH  
ALREADY TO TREND TOWARDS FROST INSTEAD OF FOG. STILL...SOME  
GUIDANCE SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG AT MAINLY HTS AND PKB  
EARLY THIS MORNING.  
 
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY, AND THEN MORE  
SOUTHERLY TONIGHT.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: A BRIEF PERIOD OF PREDAWN DENSE FOG MAY  
SNEAK INTO HTS/PKB.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
DATE FRI 11/24/17  
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17  
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
 
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...  
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...MZ/MC  
NEAR TERM...MZ  
SHORT TERM...26  
LONG TERM...26  
AVIATION...MZ  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab WV Page
The Nexlab OH Page
The Nexlab KY Page
The Nexlab VA Page Main Text Page