422  
FXUS61 KRLX 241343  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
943 AM EDT MON JUL 24 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE  
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER  
THROUGH MIDWEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 940 AM MONDAY...  
 
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES TODAY BASED ON CURRENT  
OBS AND TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES MADE.  
 
AS OF 625 AM MONDAY...  
 
RADAR LOOPS SHOWS THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS MOVING EAST OUT OF  
WEBSTER/NICHOLAS COUNTIES. EXPECT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO  
DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING.  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST FROM THE OH VALLEY ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. THE HIRES GUIDANCE DEVELOPS  
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD  
OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT MAINLY BETWEEN 18-23Z. CLEARING  
SKIES TONIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN VALLEY FOG WHICH MAY BECOME DENSE  
IN SPOTS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 335 AM MONDAY...  
 
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST DURING  
WENDESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 335 AM MONDAY...  
 
SFC LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF CWA ON THURSDAY  
WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.  
MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW, IN ANY CASE  
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE  
WEEKEND. INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGH SUNDAY AND THERE IS CHANCE  
FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH  
THE LOWLANDS STAYING DRY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 625 AM MONDAY...  
 
PATCHY MVFR-VLIFR FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL DISSIPATE WITH  
WIDESPREAD VFR BY 15Z. PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED FROM MID  
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF SUB-VFR RESTRICTIONS ARE  
POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED-WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTORMS  
18-23Z. COVERAGE IS SPARSE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MENTION IN 24/12Z  
TAFS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AIRSPACE BY  
TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY.  
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE VALLEY FOG  
FORMATION INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: INCREASED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS  
AFTERNOON. NO FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23  
EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H M  
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H M  
PKB CONSISTENCY L L L M H H H H H H H M  
CKB CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H H M  
 
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...  
 
MAINLY VFR THROUGH MIDWEEK. TSTORM IMPACTS LIKELY THURSDAY INTO  
FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...99  
NEAR TERM...MZ/99  
SHORT TERM...JS  
LONG TERM...JS  
AVIATION...99  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab WV Page
The Nexlab OH Page
The Nexlab KY Page
The Nexlab VA Page Main Text Page