272  
FXUS61 KRLX 232335  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
735 PM EDT SAT SEP 23 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY  
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. COLD FRONT APPROACHES  
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. COOLER AIRMASS TO FOLLOW.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 730 PM SATURDAY...  
 
TWEAKED HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON LATEST LAMP/HRRR. EXPECT DENSE  
RIVER VALLEY FOG ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.  
 
AS OF 135 PM SATURDAY...  
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NECESSARY  
TO THE FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE  
AND ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES,  
AND DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECTING ANOTHER COOL, CLEAR NIGHT ON TAP  
AGAIN, WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING, BURNING OFF BY MID MORNING  
SUNDAY, WITH ANOTHER SUNNY AND HOT DAY ON TAP.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 325 PM SATURDAY...  
 
HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE  
PERIOD WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. DRY AIR ALOFT AND  
LACK OF MAJOR FORCING WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY.  
TUESDAY, THE EFFECTS OF MARIA WILL START TO BE FELT WITH A  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TERRAIN-DRIVEN SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON  
THOUGH THEY WILL BE PRIMARILY ON THE EASTERN RIDGELINES OUTSIDE  
OF THIS CWA.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 325 PM SATURDAY...  
 
OPERATIONAL LONG RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN A SIGNIFICANT  
PATTERN CHANGE UPCOMING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THE POSITION  
AND STRENGTH OF MARIA LINGERING OFF THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH  
CAROLINA WILL DETERMINE THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF SURFACE  
BOUNDARIES DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THIS TIME, AN  
INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND  
STRUGGLE TO PASS THROUGH BY THURSDAY MORNING, DROPPING THURSDAY  
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR-NORMAL.  
 
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR A MORE ROBUST COLD FRONT  
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AMPLIFIED SHORT-WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A MEAN  
LONG-WAVE TROUGH TO COME THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO  
SATURDAY WITH GREATER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND AN EVEN GREATER  
AIRMASS CHANGE BEHIND IT. DEEP, DUE-NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SETTLE  
INTO PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 730 PM SATURDAY...  
 
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THROUGH 04Z.  
PERSISTENCE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN WITH DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG  
OVERNIGHT AT MOST TERMINALS EXCEPT KBKW. EXPECT KEKN TO DROP  
FIRST, GENERALLY IN THE 3-4Z TIME FRAME, WITH THE REMAINING  
TERMINALS HOLDING OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO 06Z.  
 
FOG TO DISSIPATE INT HE 13 TO 14Z TIMEFRAME FOR A RETURN TO VFR  
CONDITIONS AMID JUST SOME PASSING CIRRUS CLOUDS.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH ON DENSE FOG. MEDIUM NO TIMING ONSET  
OF DENSE FOG.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING AND RESTRICTIONS MAY VARY FROM  
FORECAST A FEW HOURS.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09  
EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L L L  
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H M M  
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M  
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M L L L M M  
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L M M  
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M  
 
AFTER 00Z MONDAY...  
VLIFR IN VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...SL  
NEAR TERM...SL/30  
SHORT TERM...MZ  
LONG TERM...MZ  
AVIATION...30  
 
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