726
FXUS61 KRLX 241909
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
300 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2008
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT. A FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
DISTURBANCES AT TIMES INT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. ALOFT...H500 CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BRING THE GENERAL FLOW TO
MORE OF A ZONAL PATTERN. THIS DOES NOT HAPPEN EARLY ENOUGH TO BRING
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO OUR WEST INTO OUR CWA...ALTHOUGH WE MAY GET
SCRAPED BY SOME OF THE HIGH CLOUDS. CU WILL COLLAPSE AFTER
SUNSET...LEAVING CIRRUS AT WORST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH LOW
DEWPOINTS...DID NOT THINK VALLEY FOG WOULD BE ESPECIALLY DENSE
OVERNIGHT SAVE FOR THE USUAL SUSPECTS...LIKE EKN.
HIGH STARTS TO EDGE EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ALLOW LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW TO START UP. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRIES TO
SNEAK IN ON THE DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN SOME MID CLOUDS. STILL MUCH TOO DRY FOR PRECIP.
MOS HAS PERFORMED PRETTY WELL ON TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST FEW
CYCLES...ESPECIALLY THE MET...SO DID NOT STRAY FAR.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
MODELS AGREE WELL ON THE MEAN UPPER AIR PATTERN OF A RIDGE OVER THE
WEST CENTRAL U.S. AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. HOWEVER...THEY
CONTINUE TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS RESOLVING A NUMBER OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND THEIR ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEMS ROTATING
AROUND THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH. EVEN WITHOUT RESOLVING THESE
INDIVIDUAL FEATURES...LOOKS TO BE A LOT OF MOISTURE THIS PERIOD AS
SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. THERE IS SOME
MODEL CONSENSUS OF ACTUALLY PUSHING A WEAK COOL SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THUS WE HAVE MOST
OF OUR PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
WHILE HUMIDITY INCREASES...MAX TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL STAY
AROUND NORMAL WITH ALL THE CLOUDS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE SAME PROBLEM CONTINUES AS STATED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION
ABOVE. THERE WILL BE A NUMBER OF POTENTIAL SHORT WAVES TRAVERSING IN
OR NEAR OUR AREA THIS PERIOD...BUT MODELS GENERALLY DIFFER ON TIMING
AND EXACT TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS. WILL MOSTLY FOCUS THE FORECAST ON
WHAT THE MODELS DO APPEAR TO HAVE SOME AGREEMENT ON...THAT BEING
STALLING THE WEAK FRONT JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A SERIES OF WAVES ALONG THE FRONT.
THIS WILL BRING THE THREAT OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH...BUT MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE KEPT
NEAR NORMAL WITH ALL THE CLOUDS. ONE SPECIFIC IS THAT MODELS DO GRAB
ONTO ONE SHORT WAVE COMING ACROSS MONDAY...SO HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS
THIS PERIOD ON MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN CONTROL...WITH SCT CU. DEWPOINTS ARE RATHER LOW...SO FOCUSING
ON A RATHER LIGHT VALLEY FOG NIGHT OVERALL. THINK CRW COULD GET TO
IFR LATE WHILE EKN SHOULD GET TO VLIFR...NO CLOUDS THERE TONIGHT.
MORE VFR CONDITIONS AFTER FOG BURNOFF AT 13/14Z...PERHAPS SOME AC
BEGINNING TO SHOW UP AT HTS.
AVIATION OUTLOOK /AFTER 00Z FRIDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CL/JMV
NEAR TERM...CL
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...CL
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