129  
FXUS61 KRLX 231815  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
115 PM EST FRI FEB 23 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERS ABOUT THE AREA THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND, AS SURFACE WAVES PASS. AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL  
POSSIBLE INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 115 PM FRIDAY...  
 
RAISED POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR  
POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, OR  
UPSTREAM AND THEN MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING, AND THEN  
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A FRONT SAGGING THROUGH THE MIDDLE  
OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  
 
AS OF 1200 PM FRIDAY...  
 
EXTENDED FLOOD WATCH IN TIME FROM 12Z TO 21Z SUNDAY. ALSO GOT  
THE GUSTY WINDS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS  
EVENING IN THE PACKAGE.  
 
AS OF 1025 AM FRIDAY...  
 
ADJUSTED POPS TO ALLOW RAINFALL TO GET FARTHER EAST, TO ABOUT  
THE OHIO RIVER, WITH THE WAVE EXISTING THIS MORNING UP NORTH,  
AND THE SECOND WAVE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. STILL  
ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER NEAR AND ON THE WARM SIDE OF  
THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THIN CAPE BUT  
ADEQUATE SHEAR, FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 11 KFT, AND A DRY MID  
LEVEL COULD LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS, AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL. WILL  
ADD THE GUSTY WINDS TO THE GRIDS AND FORECAST FOR THIS  
AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR WILL BE HIGHER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.  
 
AS OF 420 AM FRIDAY...  
 
MODELS SHOW A FRONT PUSHING BACK NORTHWARD TODAY AS A SURFACE  
WAVE BRINGS MORE RAIN TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  
WHILE MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE NORTH OF THE FRONT, SOME  
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE FRONT, SO CAN  
NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS THERE AS WELL.  
WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH AS GROUND IS SATURATED AND  
SEVERAL STREAMS AND RIVERS REMAIN IN FLOOD IN SOUTHEASTERN OHIO.  
 
BEHIND THE WAVE THIS EVENING, THE COLD FRONT PUSHES BACK  
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION BEFORE AGAIN STALLING. ANOTHER WAVE IS  
SET TO MOVE ALONG THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 415 AM FRIDAY...  
 
WE CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE FLOODING POTENTIAL OVER THE  
WEEKEND. AN IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEED INTO THE OHIO  
VALLEY WILL INTERACT WITH A QUASI STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE TO  
PRODUCE ROUNDS OF DOWNPOURS AND SOME STORMS. IT APPEARS THERE  
WILL BE TWO SIGNIFICANT ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN. ONE MID TO LATE  
MORNING SATURDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.  
THE OTHER SLATED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH THE FOCUS ACROSS  
SOUTHEAST OHIO, AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PIVOTS NORTHWESTWARD AS  
A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE  
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS. QPF  
AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES ARE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO,  
TAILING OFF AS ONCE PROGRESSES EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER. THIS WILL  
RESULT IN A RENEWED THREAT FOR FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO,  
WITH MAIN STEM RIVERS IN THE ZONE FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING COME  
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR THE OHIO  
RIVER, WHERE MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST ALONG MANY OF OUR  
OFFICIAL FORECAST POINTS. THE CURRENT FORECAST LEVELS COMPARE  
CLOSELY TO IVAN IN 2004, WHICH PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT FLOODING  
ALONG THE MIGHTY OHIO.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY WARM OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH A  
SLIGHT COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY. SOME SHOWERS MAY  
LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY BEFORE THE UPPER TROF  
FINALLY SWEEPS EVERYTHING EAST.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 435 AM FRIDAY...  
 
A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE  
ANOTHER WET SYSTEM CROSSES MID TO LATE WEEK. IT WILL REMAIN VERY  
MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 115 PM FRIDAY...  
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING THIS AFTERNOON CAN  
BRING MVFR TOM IFR CONDITIONS, ALONG WITH STRONG, GUSTY WINDS,  
IF ONE DIRECTLY IMPACTS A TAF SITE.  
 
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN, AND ASSOCIATED LOW MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS,  
INCREASES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, AND THEN IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON  
SATURDAY, AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHEASTWARD, ALONG A  
FRONT OVER THE AREA.  
 
STRONG, GUSTY SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND  
VARIABLE TONIGHT, AND THEN REMAIN SO FOR THE MOST PART ON  
SATURDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME  
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, AND  
THEN MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST AGAIN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DEGREE OF LOWER FLIGHT  
CATEGORIES MAY VARY WITH TIMING OF RAIN, AND WITH POSSIBLE FOG  
AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TAFS MAY NEED  
UPDATED IF A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY  
THIS EVENING.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05  
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H L L L  
BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H M  
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M L L M M  
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H M L L H M M  
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M L L M L L  
 
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...  
IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR WVZ005>011.  
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-  
083>087.  
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ101>103-105.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30  
NEAR TERM...TRM/RPY  
SHORT TERM...30  
LONG TERM...30  
AVIATION...TRM  
 
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