017  
FXUS61 KRLX 291842  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
242 PM EDT MON MAY 29 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. COLD FRONTS CROSS  
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. A LOW BRINGS A  
FRONT INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. UNSETTLED AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...  
 
COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THE REGION AND SEEING SOME DIURNAL CU  
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER  
SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT  
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW, HOWEVER THE BEST DYNAMICS  
WILL BE POSITIONED TO OUR NORTH. MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE LIMITED,  
BUT WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED TO THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS  
BY 18Z TUESDAY. EXPECTING A BOOST TO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH  
OROGRAPHIC ACCENT IN THE MOUNTAINS, BUT STILL NOT CONFIDENT IN  
HOW WIDEPSREAD THE COVERAGE WILL BE, SO HAVE CAPPED THE POPS AT  
JUST CHANCE FOR NOW.  
 
LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT AND  
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TURBULENT MIXING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY  
LAYER TO HINDER FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, ACROSS OUR EASTERN  
ZONES THE FLOW REMAINS WEAK UNTIL LATER TUESDAY MORNING AND  
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME FOG ACROSS THE SHELTERED MOUNTAIN  
VALLEYS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...  
 
UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. UPPER LOW TO LINGER  
ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, WITH A SERIES OF  
COLD FRONTS, ONE ON TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ON WEDNESDAY.  
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS  
PERIOD AS FRONTS TRAVERSE THE REGION. OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE  
WEATHER WITH THESE FRONTS REMAINS LOW.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...  
 
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY, ANOTHER FRONT  
WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BEFORE  
STALLING OUT BRIEFLY AND LIFTING BACK NORTH LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS  
ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT  
AIR WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE AREA, WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE  
MID TO UPPER 60S. THIS LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS, AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WATER  
ISSUES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 120 PM MONDAY...  
 
ONE COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON,  
BUT ANOTHER ONE WILL PRESS INTO THE AREA TOMORROW. GOOD NEWS IS  
THAT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH JUST SOME  
SCATTERED CUMULUS DECKS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT THEY  
SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING.  
 
LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT SHOULD HINDER FOG  
DEVELOP TONIGHT, EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY IN OUR SHELTERED MOUNTAIN  
VALLEYS. DECIDED TO ADD IFR FOG EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AT EKN  
DUE TO WEAKER FLOW THERE, BUT STILL NOT SURE IF MID TO UPPER  
LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING  
EVEN THERE.  
 
OUR FRONT TOMORROW WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED, BUT SCATTERED  
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE DECIDED TO  
HOLD OFF PUTTING ANY SHOWERS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME, BUT COULD  
SEE POSSIBLE MVFR SHOWERS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 16Z  
TOMORROW.  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AT EKN WITH POSSIBLE FOG,  
HIGH CONFIDENCE ELSEWHERE.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VALLEY FOG MAY NOT DEVELOP AT EKN OVERNIGHT.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05  
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
 
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...  
IFR POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND  
WEDNESDAY, AND MAYBE IN FOG THURSDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK  
NEAR TERM...MPK  
SHORT TERM...ARJ  
LONG TERM...ARJ  
AVIATION...MPK  
 
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