257  
FXUS61 KRLX 251355  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
955 AM EDT SAT MAR 25 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
WARM AND DRY TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE  
SUNDAY AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 950 AM SATURDAY...  
 
IT IS A WARM START TO THE DAY WITH MANY PLACES ALREADY IN THE  
MID 60S. BASED ON TRENDS AND LATEST GUIDANCE, ELECTED TO BUMP UP  
HIGHS A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. WHILE WE WILL DEAL WITH  
CIRRUS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, CURRENT THINKING IS THE HIGHER  
GUIDANCE SHOULD BE ATTAINABLE GIVEN H925 TEMPS ARE PEGGED TO BE  
3 C WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.  
 
AS OF 400 AM SATURDAY...  
 
WARM TODAY DESPITE A PREVALENCE OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS.  
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND POCKETS OF UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY  
MAXIMA IN THE WARM SECTOR HAVE A VERY LOW CHANCE OF SPARKING A  
FEW STRAY SHOWERS TODAY, SO HAVE LARGELY LEFT THEM OUT OF THE  
FORECAST. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THEIR OCCURRENCE  
WHICH SHOWS OVERALL CONFIDENCE EVEN IN THE SHORT TERM IS LOW FOR  
THE BINARY POP.  
 
FIRE WEATHER IS A BIT OF A CONCERN WITH OBS BEING WELL BELOW  
GUIDANCE FOR RH AND SIMILARLY WELL ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS. SO  
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TODAY. WINDS SEEM TO BE LIGHT  
ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT ANY HEADLINES.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...  
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AT  
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE NEGATIVELY  
TILTED SYSTEM WILL PULL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, ALTHOUGH THERE  
WILL BE SOME DOWNSLOPING TOO ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES AND  
LOWLANDS. THE COMBINATION OF 40-50KTS BULK SHEAR AND AROUND  
500J/KG CAPE WILL YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED  
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. NAMNEST, WRFARW AND WRFNMM ALL IN  
DECENT AGREEMENT BRINGING A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE TRI-  
STATE REGION AROUND 18Z SUNDAY. WILL PLACE MENTION OF POTENTIAL  
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IN HWO FOR AREA OUTLINED BY SPC  
MARGINAL RISK.  
 
DROP POPS DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE ON MONDAY. GFS IS MUCH FASTER  
THAN ECMWF AND NAM ON THE NEXT SURFACE LOW, THUS DID NOT GO  
COMPLETELY DRY MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM DOESN'T LOOK AS STRONG AS  
SUNDAYS, WITH JUST AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT INSTEAD OF A CLOSED LOW.  
HOWEVER, STILL HAVE LIKELY POPS TUESDAY...ALONG AND EAST OF THE  
OHIO RIVER.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...  
 
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS GFS AND ECMWF  
OFFER DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. BOTH SHOW A DRIER PERIOD WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AT THAT POINT, THE GFS BRINGS A  
QUICK MOVING SYSTEM THROUGH -- PASSING IT SOUTH OF THE CWA AND  
PULLING A SHOT OF COLD AIR DOWN. GFS SHOWS ABOUT -4C 850MB TEMPS  
FOR FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER, WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF  
OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE SURFACE LOW MUCH FARTHER  
WEST, AND +12C 850MB TEMPS ACROSS CWA ON FRIDAY. STUCK VERY CLOSE TO  
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE WITH NO STRONG FEELING EITHER WAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 625 AM SATURDAY...  
 
VFR TODAY WITH A BROKEN DECK OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. LIGHT  
WINDS. COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR  
MVFR.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.  
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23  
EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
 
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...  
IFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND  
SUNDAY, POSSIBLY LINGERING AS FOG AND LOW CEILINGS SUNDAY NIGHT  
AS THE RAIN ENDS.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ  
NEAR TERM...JW/30  
SHORT TERM...MZ  
LONG TERM...MZ  
AVIATION...JW/26  
 
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