885
FXUS61 KRLX 261833
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
233 PM EDT FRI APR 26 2024
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
A WARMING TREND STARTS TODAY AND LASTS THROUGH MONDAY. HOT
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...
WARM FRONT CURRENTLY SITTING ACROSS WESTERN KY AND TN WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT, AND BE MOSTLY CLEAR OF OUR AREA BY MID-
MORNING ON SATURDAY. NORTHEAST OF THE FRONT, SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS NOTED ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND EASTERN TN. THIS, TOO,
WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA LATER TODAY, WITH SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA AND SOUTHERN
COALFIELDS BEFORE SUNSET. THE PERSISTENT S-SE'LY WINDS WILL
PRODUCE SOME DOWNSLOPING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
WHICH MAY HELP TO SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES FOR A TIME ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL WV, AND IT'S POSSIBLE THAT CHARLESTON DOESN'T SEE A
DROP OF RAIN TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PASSES. PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO
BE HIGHER OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THEN, AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
AREA, PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
BETWEEN SUNRISE AND MIDDAY.
DESPITE THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER TOMORROW, THE PASSAGE OF THE
WARM FRONT AND A MEASURE OF DOWNSLOPING SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS
TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY. LOWER ELEVATION HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID-70S TO LOWER 80S, AND MOUNTAINS WILL RANGE FROM
MID-50S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. THE OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS SHOULD
KEEP TONIGHT'S LOWS MILD - 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES - AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE CWA.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1158 AM FRIDAY...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PLACED OVER THE EASTERN 1/3
OF THE COUNTRY SUNDAY WITH 500-MB HEIGHT LEVELS REACHING 582-583
DECIMETERS OVER THE REGION. A SURFACE HIGH WILL BE PLACED OVER
ATLANTIC, BRINGING WARM, SOUTHERLY AIR OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE 80S IN THE LOWLANDS
AND THE 70S-80S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY AND
COMFORTABLE WARMTH WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES STAYING IN THE
50S AREAWIDE. FIRE WEATHER SHOULDN'T BE TOO MUCH OF A CONCERN
WITH RH REMAINING ANYWHERE FROM 35-45% SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A POP-
UP THUNDERSTORM ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE MOUNTAINS, BUT
MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY.
MORE OF THE SAME TYPE OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY. IN FACT, RECORD-
BREAKING TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE LOCATIONS LISTED BELOW:
CRW: RECORD IS 90, SET IN 1996
PKB: RECORD IS 86, SET IN 1991
BKW: RECORD IS 85, SET IN 2017
EKN: RECORD IS 87, SET IN 1996
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EASTWARD THROUGH WESTERN KENTUCKY AND
INDIANA MONDAY, PLACING OUR REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR. DESPITE THIS,
THE AIR WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN
THE 50S. AIR TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS AND THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1158 AM FRIDAY...
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AREAWIDE TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS STILL NOT EXPECTED. FLOODING IS ALSO
NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE RECENT DRY WEATHER AND THE LACK OF SUPPORT
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 80S
AGAIN WEDNESDAY WITH RIDGING RETURNING ALOFT. SLIGHT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK WITH RIPPLES OF WEAK VORTICITY FLOWING AROUND THE
RIDGE.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...
SOME MID-LEVEL FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS IS NOTED IN PATCHES ACROSS
THE AREA, WITH SOME HIGH CIRRUS STREAMING IN OVERHEAD. OVERALL,
DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF SOME SHOWERS TONIGHT, NO SIGNIFICANT
AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED, AND ANY LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS
RELATED TO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ARE TOO LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
POINT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. WITH S-SE'LY FLOW CONTINUING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, LOW STRATUS MAY AGAIN DEVELOP UP
AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS, AND SOME SPILLOVER
EFFECTS AT BKW OR EKN CAN'T BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY AFTER 09Z.
IN ADDITION, SOME MODELS ARE HINTING AT MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
AT EKN TOMORROW MORNING WITH AND BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM
FRONT, WHICH WAS INCLUDED IN THE TAF, BUT NOT QUITE AS LOW AS
MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES ACROSS THE AREA THIS TAF
PERIOD, AND WILL SEE GUSTS MOST FREQUENTLY IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS, INCLUDING SITES LIKE BKW AND EKN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF ONSET AND EXTENT OF MVFR
CEILINGS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT MAY ALSO VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FK/JMC
NEAR TERM...FK
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...FK
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