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FLUS44 KOUN 211455
HWOOUN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
955 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-221000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
955 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM SAYRE AND ELK
CITY... TO OKLAHOMA CITY AND CHANDLER... INCLUDING ALL OF WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.
IMPACTS...
IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
FARTHER SOUTH... ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THERE
WILL HAVE A RISK OF HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. THERE REMAINS LOW CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED TORNADO ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.
TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM NOW
THROUGH 8 PM. THE RISK WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS UNTIL 8 PM.
DISCUSSION...
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS APPROXIMATELY THE SOUTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF OKLAHOMA...INTO
NORTH TEXAS. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL FAVOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS SAME REGION. AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE WILL
HELP DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE STORMS
ARE LIKELY TO BE CONCENTRATED ALONG THIS FRONT FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. INITIALLY...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN
ACROSS CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. BY AFTERNOON...LARGER
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BECOME THE MAIN CONCERNS ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST.
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES ITS SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT INTO GREATER INSTABILITY
AND MORE SUPPORTIVE WINDS...THE RISKS OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND VERY STRONG
WINDS WILL INCREASE... ALONG WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO...
OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT WEDNESDAY MAY 22.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...80 PERCENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. STORMS TOMORROW...IF THEY FORM AT ALL...ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE
THURSDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 5AM
WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL UPDATES AS NEEDED.
CMS/30
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