378
FLUS74 KOUN 090212 CCA
AWUOUN
AREA WEATHER UPDATE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
853 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
..WARNING DECISION UPDATE FOR NWRN/WRN OKLAHOMA
LINE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. HAVE RECEIVED A FEW
REPORTS OF WINDS NEAR 60 MPH. STRONG WINDS...60 TO 70 MPH WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN AS THESE STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE.
DEWPOINTS HAVE SLOWLY INCREASED FROM CENTRAL INTO NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA...FROM MID 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH 8 PM. WHILE ALONG THE
TX PANHANDLE/OK BORDER...DEWPOINTS HAVE MAINTAINED IN THE LOWER 50S.
WITH THE WIDE DEWPOINT SPREADS ACROSS FAR WESTERN OK...LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES REMAIN SUPPORTIVE...8 TO 8.5 C/KM. THIS TIED WITH MODEST
SFC-600MB THETA E DIFFERENTIALS OF 10 TO 16 K...WINDS REMAIN THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. THE WIND THREAT WILL BE
GREATEST ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...WHERE SFC TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREADS ARE BETWEEN 20 AND 30 F. THIS FALLS IN LINE WITH MANY OF
THE MESOSCALE MODELS...WHICH CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A MORE PRONOUNCED
MCS DIVING SOUTH ALONG THE TX PANHANDLE/OK BORDER INTO NORTHERN TX...
FOLLOWING THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY AND HIGH LAPSE RATES ALONG THE
PANHANDLE.
FOR CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWS MERGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE BEGINNING TO CAUSE
NEW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT FROM VANCE AFB TO LEEDEY. AT THE
MOMENT...NONE OF THIS IS SEVERE. HOWEVER...THIS IS THE BEGINNINGS OF
THE LINE/COMPLEX EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE OKC METRO TONIGHT. AT
THE MOMENT...09/00Z SOUNDING FROM KOUN HAS FAIRLY MODEST LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF APPROXIMATELY 6 TO 7 C/KM. OVERALL...AS THIS LINE MOVES
INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...MUCAPE WILL PERSIST FROM 400 TO 800 J/KG WITH
NW 0-3KM SHEAR OF 20 TO 25 KTS...ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A POSSIBLE MCS/LINE
OF CONVECTION PERSISTING OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL OK. WIND WILL REMAIN
THE OVERALL CONCERN. HOWEVER...HAIL COULD BE AN ISSUE AS ELEVATED
PARCELS ON NAMBUFR SOUNDINGS PRODUCE JUST OVER 1000 J/KG IN THE -20 TO
-30 RANGE. HOWEVER...WITH A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT EVOLVING AFTER
SUNSET...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL LESSEN...WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND HEAVY RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS COULD RESULT IN INCREASED
FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL.
KURTZ
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