027  
FNUS74 KOUN 271345  
FWSOUN  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR FLAT TOP FIRE...OKLAHOMA FORESTRY SERVICES  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK  
845 AM CDT THU JUL 27 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0900 CDT ON JULY 27.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
 
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (405) 325-3816 IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
MAIN CONCERNS TODAY ARE THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT AT  
SPOT LOCATION AND ANOTHER DAY OF HOT TEMPERATURES. CURRENTLY, SHOWERS ARE  
WELL NORTH OF THE SPOT LOCATION IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. AT THIS TIME, THE FRONT  
AND WIND SHIFT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE SITE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND  
EARLY EVENING. THIS IS ALSO THE TIME WHEN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AND PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS.  
 
A NORTH WIND IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH LINGERING CHANCES FOR RAIN.  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 96.  
MIN HUMIDITY........36 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 6 TO 15 MPH WITH  
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 11800-12500 FT  
AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 6 TO 15 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (1100-49600 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO  
EXCELLENT (70600 KNOT-FT) IN THE LATE MORNING  
AND AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 11800-12500 FT  
AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 6 TO 15 MPH.  
 
TIME (CDT) 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM  
SKY (%).........50 50 50 50 50  
WEATHER COV..... SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........ SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD  
TEMP............83 90 94 95 96  
RH..............59 47 40 37 36  
20 FT WIND......SW 13 W 13 W 10 W 9 W 9  
20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 15 15 15  
MIX HGT (FT)....1200 4600 9500 10200 12500  
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 17 W 21 SW 13 SW 10 W 7  
VRATE KTFT/100071 100 104 92 75  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74.  
MAX HUMIDITY........87 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
NORTHEAST 7 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......11000-12400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400-1500 FT  
AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
NORTHEAST 7 TO 10 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO EXCELLENT (22500-72100 KNOT-FT)  
DECREASING TO POOR TO FAIR (4800-14700 KNOT-FT)  
LATE IN THE EVENING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......11000-12400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400-1500 FT  
AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
NORTHEAST 7 TO 10 MPH.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........50 50 81 83 77 60  
WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........SCTTRD CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE  
TEMP............96 93 86 83 80 78  
RH..............38 41 53 61 69 74  
20 FT WIND......NW 9 E 9 NE 10 NE 9 NE 8 NE 7  
20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 15 15 10  
MIX HGT (FT)....12400 7900 1200 600 1200 1500  
TRANSPORT WIND..W 6 NW 6 NE 12 NE 17 NE 18 E 15  
VRATE KTFT/100072 40 23 9 5 7  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 94.  
MIN HUMIDITY........43 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......NORTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5800-7000 FT  
AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 8 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (12000-30600 KNOT-FT).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5800-7000 FT  
AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 8 MPH.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM  
SKY (%).........67 60 76 82  
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE  
TEMP............74 79 86 92  
RH..............87 77 59 47  
20 FT WIND......NE 7G10 NE 7G10 NE 7G10 NE 6G10  
MIX HGT (FT)....1100 1600 3300 5800  
TRANSPORT WIND..NE 13 NE 12 NE 9 NE 5  
VRATE KTFT/100012 19 26 31  
 

 
FORECASTER...THOREN  
REQUESTED BY...DREW DAILY  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 1713423.1/OUN  
.EMAIL DREW.DAILY@AG.OK.GOV  
 
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