175  
FXUS64 KOUN 172325  
AFDOUN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK  
625 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2018  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
EXPECT A SLOW DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AS THE SUN SETS THIS EVENING.  
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 02Z AS DEBRIS FROM SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES OVERHEAD. BY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY  
MON MORNING, MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED OVER MOST TERMINALS AND WILL  
PERSIST UNTIL 15-17Z. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 18-19Z MON.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 613 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2018/  
 
UPDATE...  
INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.  
 
DISCUSSION...  
ALTHOUGH UPPER RIDGE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STEER THE STORMS ACROSS  
THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TO THE NORTH, RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING  
A SLIGHT EASTWARD MOVEMENT BETWEEN CHILDRESS & GUTHRIE TX. AS A  
RESULT, BOTH POP & WX GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.  
WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCES INTO OUR FAR WESTERN NORTH  
TEXAS COUNTIES. OTHERWISE, LATEST HRRR RUN CONTINUES TO RESTRICT  
THE STORMS TO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AFTER 06Z.  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2018/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS  
AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL JET  
STREAK/VORT MAX LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL  
PLAINS.  
 
THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL  
IMPACT WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING  
HOURS. THE PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WERE INCREASED  
SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A FEW STORMS COULD HAVE GUSTY  
WINDS WITH TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS AROUND 25-30F AND DCAPE  
AROUND 1000 J/KG.  
 
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THE TWO PREFERENTIAL AREAS FOR  
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND  
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY AT  
THIS TIME. ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES  
MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED 2.00" AS SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTS  
NORTHWARD. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO BE COOLER  
ACROSS THIS REGION. NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN  
PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND MAY ALSO BE WITHIN A CORRIDOR  
OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS WELL.  
 
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF  
SHOWERS/SHOWERS NEXT WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CLOSED-LOW EJECTS  
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP  
ALONG A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. THE EFFECTIVE COLD  
FRONT/COMPLEX IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT  
INTO THURSDAY.  
 
BEYOND THURSDAY, FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. SHOWERS/STORMS  
MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  
MODEL TRENDS DO INDICATE THAT DRIER AND HOT WEATHER MAY RETURN BY  
NEXT SATURDAY.  
 
MAHALE  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 74 89 72 88 / 10 10 10 20  
HOBART OK 75 94 73 89 / 10 10 10 10  
WICHITA FALLS TX 76 93 73 89 / 10 20 20 20  
GAGE OK 74 93 72 91 / 30 30 20 20  
PONCA CITY OK 75 91 73 90 / 0 10 10 20  
DURANT OK 74 88 72 86 / 10 30 20 30  
 

 
   
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
68/03/03  
 
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