739
FXUS64 KOUN 051152
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
652 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008
UPDATE
WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO SPREAD A CHANCE FOR STORMS FARTHER EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT MOVEMENT OF
THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 332 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008/
DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE BEEN MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS
CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING. INCREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION OVER THE AREA WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE ACTIVITY FOR AT
LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
HAVE BEEN MOVING MAINLY TO THE EAST... THERE HAS BEEN SOME NEW
DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH. WE WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS FOR THIS
MORNING IN THE FAR NORTHWEST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY.
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA TONIGHT AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS NUDGES A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. ALONG WITH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT... ADDITIONAL LIFT WILL BE
PROVIDED BY A MODERATE SOUTHERLY 850MB FLOW AND ATTENDANT WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN. THIS SHOULD HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD
SUPPORT A FEW STORMS REACHING SEVERE LEVELS IN THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF INSTABILITIES INCREASE SUFFICIENTLY.
THE CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS THE FRONT STALLS IN THE AREA... BEFORE
SHIFTING BRIEFLY BACK TO THE NORTH SUNDAY. HOWEVER... A SECOND
FRONT DROPPING BACK INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE SUNDAY COULD
AGAIN GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD END BY MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER... MODELS INDICATING A FEW
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE BY LATE TUESDAY AS THE
850MB FLOW STRENGTHENS FROM THE SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES WILL CARRY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE MOS TEMPS WERE GENERALLY FOLLOWED ALTHOUGH DAY TO DAY
LOCATIONS OF FRONTS/PCPN WILL HAVE A CORRESPONDING EFFECT ON THE
LOCATION OF TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS OVER THE REGION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 83 60 83 65 / 0 30 20 20
HOBART OK 86 63 89 67 / 10 20 20 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 90 65 94 69 / 0 10 10 0
GAGE OK 82 55 79 60 / 30 60 20 20
PONCA CITY OK 77 58 77 64 / 10 50 30 30
DURANT OK 84 62 88 65 / 0 0 10 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
23/32
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