976
FXUS64 KOUN 091118
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
518 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2010
AVIATION
WELL MIXED SITES WERE HOLDING ONTO WINDS ABOVE 12
KNOTS. OTHER SITES WILL INCREASE TO 12-15 KNOTS AFTER
SUNRISE...AND WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT UNTIL SUNDOWN...WHEN
THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES AND MIXING SHUTS DOWN.
SKIES WILL LIKELY BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL FLIRT WITH WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...AND LOW STRATOCUMULUS IN NORTHEAST KANSAS WILL ATTEMPT TO
BUILD TOWARD KPNC...BUT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN EAST.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 345 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2010/
DISCUSSION...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT AND DRY AIR EFFECTIVELY SCOURED
OUT THE LOW OVERCAST...AND WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST ONE DAY OF MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS START TO THICKEN ON WEDNESDAY. WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES ARE A CONCERN THIS MORNING...AS THEY DIP TO
BETWEEN ZERO AND TEN ABOVE. PEOPLE WILL NEED TO DRESS IN LAYERS.
WITH SUN...HOWEVER...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE JUST ABOVE
FREEZING...AND ALTHOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD...WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AS A SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES INTO THE REGION.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHING FROM OUR
WEST...IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM. THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF MODEL AGREEMENT...AND THE 00Z GFS WAS OUR MODEL OF CHOICE.
THE LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT THE NAM DEVELOPS APPEARS OVERDONE
FOR WHAT OBSERVATIONS ALREADY SHOW AS A SMALL...MATURING LOW OF
SHORT WAVELENGTH. GOING WITH THE GFS SOLUTION...THIS WEATHER SYSTEM
STILL LOOKS TO PRODUCE A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN NORTH TEXAS
AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
LESSER CHANCES TO THE NORTH. THE PRECIP TYPE AND INTENSITY ARE IN
QUESTION THOUGH. THE BULK OF LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND MID LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR WELL TO OUR SOUTH IN TEXAS. CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW SUSTAINED LIFT OVER OUR AREA WILL BE CONFINED TO THE 400-600 MB
LAYER WHERE A MID LEVEL FRONT IS INDICATED IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
THE LOWER LEVELS MAY GRADUALLY SATURATE THROUGH EVAPORATION AND WARM
ADVECTION...BUT THE LIFT PROFILE SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LIGHT. SREF OUTPUT AND GFS SOUNDINGS GIVE THE IMPRESSION THAT LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE EARLY IN THE EVENT...BUT
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THURSDAY AFTERNOON...DURING THE
STRONGEST LIFT...RESULTING IN EITHER A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN...OR SNOW
FALLING AND MELTING.
THE SCALES COULD TIP TOWARD ALL SNOW IF THE ARCTIC AIR DOES NOT
MODIFY AS RAPIDLY AS THE MODELS INDICATE. BUT THIS AIR DID TAKE A
WINDING COURSE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND IS TIED TO THE
CYCLONE THAT WILL BE EXITING TOWARD THE EAST COAST BETWEEN NOW AND
THURSDAY. SINCE THIS IS NOT THE TYPICAL COURSE THAT LONG-LIVED
ARCTIC AIR MASSES TAKE IN GETTING HERE...IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT
THE AIR WILL MODIFY LIKE THE MODELS ARE SHOWING.
CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES COULD BE A CHALLENGE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...WHEN THE PRECIPITATION ENDS...AND A PACIFIC FRONT
OCCLUDES WITH THE REMNANT COLD AIR IN OUR REGION. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
CLEAR GRADUALLY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. SATURDAY THEN LOOKS
WARM...AND WE WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE...AS WE SHOULD SEE SOUTHWEST WINDS
IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT. THAT FRONT IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE AT PRODUCING RAIN AND LIGHT
SNOW. THE MEX POPS LOOKED FINE. WE DID UNDERCUT TEMPERATURES BY
ABOUT 5 DEGREES FOR HIGHS FOLLOWING THE FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 34 21 39 28 / 0 0 0 10
HOBART OK 37 19 39 28 / 0 0 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 41 21 45 32 / 0 0 0 30
GAGE OK 35 14 36 26 / 0 0 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 33 14 33 27 / 0 0 0 10
DURANT OK 40 23 44 30 / 0 0 0 20
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
11/22/22
BURKE
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