066  
FXUS64 KOUN 291123  
AFDOUN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK  
623 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN  
OK THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE  
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BUT THINGS ARE TOO UNCERTAIN  
AT THIS POINT TO PUT A MENTION IN THE TAF AT MOST SITES. IF STORMS  
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT, STRONG VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 343 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
MCS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN KS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO  
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WITH EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE  
COMPLEX AFFECTING WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. HOW FAR  
EAST INTO THE FA AND HOW FAR SOUTH ACROSS THE FA THIS COMPLEX WILL  
AFFECT IS A BIT UNCERTAIN BUT THE EASTERN EDGE IS DIMINISHING SOME  
IN KANSAS RIGHT NOW SO THINK WILL STAY CONFINED TO WESTERN THIRD  
OR LESS OF THE FA.  
 
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO  
ANY LINGERING BOUNDARIES FROM THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION AND  
SFC HEATING. WITH NOT KNOWING EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR HAVE  
PUT LOW POPS IN EVERYWHERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  
 
CHALLENGES CONTINUE WITH THE FORECAST OF SHOWER/STORM CHANCES.  
DAILY RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MOST  
LIKELY AND MOST CONFIDENT PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THURSDAY  
INTO FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY  
MOVING INTO AND STALLING OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WITH THE  
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THE NEXT MOST  
CONFIDENT TIME WILL BE WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE  
SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND.  
MODELS HAVE SHOWN THIS FEATURE FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW WITH A CHANCE  
FOR RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE FA. OTHERWISE, WHERE/WHEN  
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON MORE  
SUBTLE/SMALLER SCALE FEATURES THAT ARE HARDER TO PREDICT. WHAT  
HAPPENS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON WHAT HAPPENS  
DURING THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING PERIODS. DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW,  
LINGERING BOUNDARIES, AND HEATING COULD ALL CONTRIBUTE TO STORM  
DEVELOPMENT. HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING CONTINUES TO  
BE THE MAIN CONCERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, SOME STRONG TO  
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES AS WELL, WITH STRONG  
WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 93 70 93 72 / 20 20 20 30  
HOBART OK 94 70 97 72 / 30 20 20 30  
WICHITA FALLS TX 96 71 98 74 / 20 10 10 10  
GAGE OK 93 69 95 67 / 70 30 50 60  
PONCA CITY OK 92 71 93 70 / 20 30 50 70  
DURANT OK 94 71 94 72 / 20 10 10 10  
 

 
   
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
03/25/25  
 
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