589
FXUS64 KOUN 030115 AAA
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
815 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
UPDATE
WITH LOSS OF HEATING... CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED
SO HAVE REMOVED POPS. ALSO UPDATED SKY COVER TO CURRENT TRENDS.
MAXWELL
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 635 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 04/00Z AT ALL TERMINALS. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 03/14Z ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WEST/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TERMINALS IN RESPONSE TO FALLING PRESSURES
OVER KANSAS. A FEW HOURS OF SUSTAINED 20KT POSSIBLE AT KGAG/KWWR
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER DAY WITH A RESIDUAL SFC BOUNDARY WHICH MAY ACT AS A FOCUS
FOR AFTN SHWR/TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
INTO CENTRAL OK. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN OK WHERE
TERRAIN WILL PLAY A ROLE. MUCH LIKE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME INSTABILITY A FEW STORMS MAY
APPROACH/BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. THIS
ACTIVITY IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY MID-EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.
ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR NORTH
TONIGHT... BUT OTHER THAN REINFORCING SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS KS
SHOULD NOT IMPACT AREA OVERNIGHT AND AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE DRY AND HOT AS SFC FRONT CREEPS SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARD
NORTHERN OK. AFTER ANOTHER HOT DAY ON SATURDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA... PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT AS SFC
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA. MESOSCALE FEATURES SURE TO PLAY A
ROLE ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE SAT NIGHT/SUN AND NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON
GFS SCENARIO OF MCS MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...
BUT WILL KEEP SOME HIGHER POPS GOING THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE TRENDING
POPS DONE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS ALSO SHOWS ANOTHER MCS
DEVELOPING ACROSS HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO AND THEN MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING. IF THIS DOES
OCCUR IT COULD SKIRT WESTERN SECTIONS... BUT FOR NOW WILL HAVE ONLY
LOW POPS WITH COMPLEX REMAINING WEST OF THE STATE.
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
BY THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL MEAN AN END TO
RAIN CHANCES AND RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 70 99 74 101 / 10 0 0 20
HOBART OK 72 102 75 102 / 10 0 0 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 73 101 76 103 / 10 0 0 10
GAGE OK 68 100 72 96 / 10 10 10 30
PONCA CITY OK 69 96 77 94 / 10 10 20 30
DURANT OK 72 99 74 99 / 10 0 0 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
25/11
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