874  
FXUS64 KOUN 181744  
AFDOUN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK  
1144 AM CST WED JAN 18 2017  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
VARYING CEILINGS ACROSS OK/NORTH TX WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE THEME  
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. MOST WILL  
BE IN THE MVFR RANGE, BUT OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE IN NORTH TX/SOUTHERN OK THIS AFTERNOON, AND VFR SHOULD  
BE TYPICAL ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT, AND  
WIDESPREAD LOW IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TOMORROW MORNING, MAINLY  
DUE TO LOW CEILINGS...BUT SOME DRIZZLE AND BR ARE ALSO EXPECTED.  
A STORM SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW  
MORNING SHOULD START A SLOW CLEARING TREND FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY  
LATE MORNING.  
 
CMS  

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 950 AM CST WED JAN 18 2017/  
 
UPDATE...  
ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  
 
DISCUSSION...  
OBSERVING RADAR TRENDS FROM KFWS AND OBS, RAINFALL HAS REMAINED  
CONFINED TO NORTH TEXAS AND IS LIKELY TO JUST SKIRT SOUTH CENTRAL  
OKLAHOMA. GIVEN THIS TREND, HAVE DROPPED CATEGORICAL CHANCES FOR  
RAIN AND REPLACED WITH CHANCE OF SPRINKLES FOR SOUTH CENTRAL  
OKLAHOMA. DID THE SAME THING IN THE NORTHWEST, AS OBS OVER THE  
LAST TWO HOURS HAVE REPORTED NO RAIN AND LIGHT RETURNS ON KVNX  
SUGGEST NOT MUCH IS REACHING THE GROUND.  
 
TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON ARE  
STILL EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.  
 
KURTZ  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 AM CST WED JAN 18 2017/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
THE JANUARY 18-19, 2017 12 UTC TAF DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:  
 
AVIATION...  
PATCHY DENSE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS ARE IMPACTING SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA  
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING (KSPS/KLAW). EXPECT FLIGHT  
CONDITIONS AT THESE TERMINALS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID-MORNING.  
OTHERWISE, A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGH TODAY. AT THE OTHER  
TERMINALS, CURRENTLY EXPECT VFR CEILINGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE  
DAYTIME HOURS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE--  
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA (KCSM/KHBR).  
 
BY THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, DETERIORATING FLIGHT  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS. FOG/MIST, DRIZZLE, AND  
LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 03-06Z AND BECOME  
PREVAILING TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. MOST TERMINALS ARE  
EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS; HOWEVER, LIFR  
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. GREATEST CONFIDENCE FOR AT LEAST  
TEMPORARILY LIFR CONDITIONS AND DRIZZLE BETWEEN 09-12Z WILL BE  
ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FROM KLAW TO KOKC/KOUN TO KPNC.  
 
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE  
TAF PERIOD.  
 
MAHALE  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CST WED JAN 18 2017/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING WITH THE MEASURABLE  
PRECIPITATION GENERALLY CONFINED ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA IN  
ASSOCIATION WITH THE VORT MAX AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH  
ISENTROPIC ASCENT. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE  
NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AS THE VORT MAX LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS.  
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, BOTH CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS AND  
THE NAM12 INDICATE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. PROGGED 295 K  
ISENTROPIC SURFACES INDICATE SOME ASCENT COINCIDENT WITH THE QPF  
SIGNAL.  
 
FOR TONIGHT, AT LEAST PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SUGGESTED BY  
VARIOUS GUIDANCE (SREF/RAP13/NAM12). THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG SEEMS  
REASONABLE BECAUSE OF THE RECENT RAINS AND FOR MANY LOCATIONS, THE  
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EQUAL TO OR LOWER THAN THIS  
AFTERNOON'S DEWPOINTS. IN ADDITION, FORECAST BUFR SOUNDINGS  
INDICATE SOME DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE--ESPOUSAL NEAR I-35 TO THE  
EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT KOKC/KPNC/KADM ALL INDICATE A  
RELATIVELY DEEP SATURATED LAYER FROM THE SFC TO ~925 MB COINCIDENT  
WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT AT THE 290 K INSENTROPIC SURFACE.  
 
THURSDAY WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10F  
ABOVE AVERAGE. FRIDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER AS BOTH THE 18/00Z GFS  
AND ECMWF INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 9-11C WITH  
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW. AS A RESULT, HIGH TEMPERATURES  
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60FS AND 70FS (~15F ABOVE AVERAGE). NEAR  
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE--ESPECIALLY  
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.  
 
SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE NEXT WAVE  
APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ASCENT AHEAD OF WAVE MAY RESULT IN  
SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A CLOSED MID/UPPER-  
LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE RED RIVER LATE SATURDAY INTO  
SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL BE WITHIN THE DEFORMATION  
ZONE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW. WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY GET DRY  
SLOTTED WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION. THE GFS HAS A GREATER  
MAGNITUDE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF WITH 850 MB  
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -1C IN FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. BUFR SOUNDING  
FROM KGAG STILL INDICATE LIQUID PRECIPITATION AS TEMPERATURES WARM  
ABOVE FREEZING JUST BELOW 850 MB. SO FOR NOW, OPTED TO KEEP ALL  
PRECIPITATION LIQUID. VERY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON IN THE SYSTEM'S WAKE. THIS MAY RESULT IN NEAR CRITICAL  
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE WEST.  
 
FOR MONDAY, SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE.  
CONSEQUENTLY, SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH A RETURN  
TO SOUTHERLY WINDS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST  
ASCENT/PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PROGGED  
TO STAY NORTH OF OKLAHOMA; HOWEVER, THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM  
WILL BE COLDER THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM (THOUGH NOT TOO COLD).  
THEREFORE, AT LEAST SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE  
CURRENTLY EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.  
 
MAHALE  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 52 41 61 38 / 10 10 0 0  
HOBART OK 52 41 61 37 / 10 0 0 0  
WICHITA FALLS TX 52 40 67 42 / 10 10 0 0  
GAGE OK 54 40 58 33 / 20 0 0 0  
PONCA CITY OK 53 42 58 39 / 10 10 10 10  
DURANT OK 50 46 65 45 / 20 20 0 0  
 

 
   
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
04/23/23  
 
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