004  
FXUS64 KOUN 250328  
AFDOUN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK  
1028 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST  
OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE NIGHT. NEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO  
FORM ALONG A FRONT IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BEFORE SUNRISE AND MOVE  
SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING THE MORNING AND INTO  
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL  
FOLLOW THE FRONT. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHERN AND  
WESTERN OKLAHOMA BEHIND THE FRONT.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 1001 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016/  
 
UPDATE...  
UPDATED THE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVERNIGHT. ALSO UPDATED  
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT/WIND FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.  
 
DISCUSSION...  
ONE WAVE OF SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS  
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. THE  
GREATEST FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THIS REGION, WHERE THE  
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE HAD VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES (1-2+" PER HOUR).  
FARTHER NORTH, INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, THE ATMOSPHERE  
IS MORE STABLE WITH AN OUTFLOW COOLED AIRMASS IN PLACE.  
 
IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION BEFORE A  
SECOND WAVE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT  
THAT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA LATER TONIGHT. UPDATED THE  
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT BASED ON THIS TREND.  
CONSEQUENTLY, PROBABILITIES WERE DECREASED SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS MOST  
LOCATIONS AFTER 06Z.  
 
MAHALE  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
 
AVIATION...  
A BROAD LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL  
OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT. NEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED  
TO FORM ALONG A FRONT IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BEFORE SUNRISE AND  
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING THE MORNING AND  
INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS  
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHERN AND  
WESTERN OKLAHOMA BEHIND THE FRONT.  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE MAIN CONCERN NEXT 36HRS.  
 
LARGE UPPER LOW OVER WYOMING/COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE  
SLOWLY EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE LIFTING  
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODELS  
STILL DEPICTING A LARGE PIECE OF THIS LOW REMAINING BEHIND,  
RETROGRADING AND CLOSING OFF SOMEWHERE NEAR THE BAJA TOMORROW.  
 
AS THIS OCCURS, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED  
TO DEVELOP ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. ALTHOUGH  
OVERALL WIND FIELDS WILL BE RATHER WEAK, SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY  
WILL BE PRESENT LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING FOR A FEW STRONG TO  
PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS ACROSS APPROXIMATELY THE WESTERN HALF OF  
THE CWA.  
 
AS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS, A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH OKLAHOMA  
INTO TEXAS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING COOLER AND  
DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA, WHICH WILL LIMIT THE RAIN/THUNDER TO RED  
RIVER VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  
 
DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE AREA, RESULTING IN  
A COUPLE OF PLEASANT AND MORE FALL-LIKE DAYS EARLY IN THE WEEK.  
HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY/TUESDAY WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE 70S  
WITH NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER  
50S BY TUESDAY MORNING.  
 
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE BAJA IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST  
THROUGH SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS BY LATE IN  
THE WEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST  
OKLAHOMA BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES  
WILL WARM BACK TO INTO THE LOW/MID 80S.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 69 75 57 74 / 80 80 30 10  
HOBART OK 67 74 57 73 / 70 80 30 10  
WICHITA FALLS TX 70 78 59 74 / 90 90 50 30  
GAGE OK 61 71 50 75 / 50 30 0 0  
PONCA CITY OK 67 73 53 75 / 90 70 10 0  
DURANT OK 71 84 63 77 / 80 70 40 20  
 

 
   
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
10/09/09  
 
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