995  
FXUS64 KOUN 211108  
AFDOUN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK  
608 AM CDT SAT OCT 21 2017  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN STRONG SOUTHERLY  
WINDS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS INTO THE AFTERNOON. A FEW  
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR IN THE MOIST AIRMASS, BUT SHOULD NOT RESULT IN  
ANY SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS ON AVIATION. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD LOW  
CLOUDS (BASES MOSTLY 1,500 TO 3,000 FT) WILL COVER MOST OF THE  
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING, CLEARING/SCATTERING SLOWLY FROM THE  
WEST...ALTHOUGH KPNC MAY NOT CLEAR AT ALL TODAY.  
 
DURING THE EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON, STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
EXPECTED TO FORM QUICKLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE OVER  
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THE INITIAL STORMS WILL PROBABLY INCLUDE  
SCATTERED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. TOWARD 00Z, THE ASSEMBLY OF  
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO FORM INTO A SOLID LINE  
OF STORMS, ON OR SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT (AT 00Z,  
THE STORMS SHOULD EXTEND APPROXIMATELY FROM KPNC/KEND TO KSPS AND  
VICINITY. THE LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY TOWARD THE  
EAST, WITH RAIN ENDING AT MOST SITES ABOUT 3 HOURS AFTER STORMS  
BEGIN. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT, BUT WILL  
DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.  
 
CMS  

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 443 AM CDT SAT OCT 21 2017/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING WITH THE TIGHT SURFACE  
PRESSURE GRADIENT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING  
WITHIN THE WARM, MOIST AIRMASS WHERE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT CAN HELP  
GENERATE THEM.  
 
OF MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANCE IS THE COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO  
MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE  
NIGHT. INITIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR AROUND MID-  
AFTERNOON, PROBABLY NEAR A LINE FROM ALVA TO ELK CITY, THEN SPREAD  
EAST AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE. MORE DISCRETE STORM CELLS ARE  
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING THE MID-  
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL FORM IN AN  
AREA OF ENHANCED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (BECAUSE OF A WEAK SURFACE  
LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO FORM ON THE FRONT), AND ARE LIKELY TO  
INCLUDE A FEW SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. THE ENTIRE ASSEMBLY IS  
EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO A LINEAR COMPLEX DURING THE EARLY EVENING,  
REDUCING THE THREATS OF HAIL AND TORNADOES, BUT MAINTAINING A  
RISK OF STRONG WINDS WELL INTO THE NIGHT. THE LAST OF THE SEVERE  
STORMS SHOULD EXIT OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY  
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.  
 
AFTER THE STORMS CLEAR THE REGION, RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER IS  
EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BOB UP AND DOWN  
BETWEEN FRONTS (ONE MONDAY, AND ANOTHER ON THURSDAY). MODEL  
DIFFERENCES BECOME QUITE LARGE TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK, SO THE  
CONFIDENCE LEVEL OF THE FORECAST IS CORRESPONDINGLY LOW.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 78 48 70 47 / 60 100 0 0  
HOBART OK 80 46 72 47 / 60 80 0 0  
WICHITA FALLS TX 83 51 72 48 / 50 80 0 0  
GAGE OK 75 40 71 44 / 30 20 0 0  
PONCA CITY OK 75 48 70 45 / 80 90 0 0  
DURANT OK 82 56 72 47 / 20 100 10 10  
 

 
   
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
25/23/23  
 
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