613  
FXUS64 KOUN 222014  
AFDOUN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK  
314 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2017  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
THE MAIN CONCERNS ARE RAIN/STORM CHANCES/POTENTIAL TONIGHT  
INTO TUESDAY.  
 
ONGOING ISOLATED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND  
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS OF 3 PM SHOULD WEAKEN IN THE NEXT SEVERAL  
HOURS AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND 700 MB WEAKENS. THIS ACTIVITY  
WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT. SOME THUNDER MAY OCCUR WITH THIS  
ACTIVITY, BUT DO NOT THINK ANY STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS WILL  
OCCUR DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY (MUCAPE MAINLY BELOW 600 J/KG).  
 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL NOW THROUGH TONIGHT STILL APPEARS  
TO BE LOW WITH DECREASING CONFIDENCE. CLOUD COVER AND RAIN HAVE  
LIMITED INSTABILITY IN MOST LOCATIONS NORTH OF A MANGUM TO  
SEMINOLE LINE. SOUTH OF THIS LINE, SOME SUN AND DAYTIME HEATING  
HAVE ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO 70S. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY  
FORM NEAR AND THIS CLOUD SHIELD LINE IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS,  
THOUGH THIS REMAINS DOUBTFUL DUE TO SUFFICIENT CAPPING. HIGHER  
CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEAR TO OCCUR OVER FAR EASTERN NEW  
MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE AIR IS MORE  
UNSTABLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST,  
WHICH MAY GLANCE WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA  
THIS EVENING IF THEY CAN ORGANIZE INTO A COMPLEX OR TWO. IF  
SEVERE STORMS OCCUR, SOME SEVERE HAIL AND WIND REPORTS, MAINLY ON  
THE LOWER END OF SEVERE SPECTRUM (HAIL LESS THAN GOLF BALL SIZE  
AND WINDS UNDER 70 MPH), WOULD BE POSSIBLE. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE  
EXPECTED NORTH OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE DUE TO LIMITED  
INSTABILITY.  
 
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, A COLD FRONT WILL  
MOVE SOUTH AND THROUGH THE AREA. A FEW LINGERING WEAK SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA.  
 
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, SOME CLEARING CAN BE EXPECTED, THOUGH  
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE FOR LATE MAY. SUFFICIENT  
DAYTIME HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM IN RATHER CHILLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. IF  
STORMS OCCUR, NO SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE EXPECTED DUE TO LIMITED  
INSTABILITY (LESS THAN 500 J/KG), HOWEVER SMALL HAIL UP TO NICKELS  
AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH COULD RESULT.  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THURSDAY  
WILL BE WARMER (POSSIBLY MUCH WARMER) THAN WEDNESDAY.  
 
FRIDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY, A WARM/HOT HUMID AIRMASS MAY EVOLVE  
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY, ALONG FOR  
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS/HEAVY RAINFALL. MOST  
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY DEPICTING RATHER HIGH AMOUNTS OF  
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY (MUCAPE 2000-5000 J/KG), HIGH LOW LEVEL  
MOISTURE (SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S), AND  
SUFFICIENT SHEAR (0-6 KM BULK SHEAR 30-50 KT) FOR SEVERE STORMS  
WITH HEAVY RAIN LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. CAPPING MAY BE  
STRONG AND LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW, KEPT LOW CHANCES FOR  
STORMS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HAVE LOW  
CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE STORM AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL DURING  
THIS TIME FRAME. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR  
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY.  
 
MBS  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 55 70 48 73 / 40 20 10 0  
HOBART OK 53 70 47 79 / 40 20 0 0  
WICHITA FALLS TX 59 72 51 79 / 50 40 0 0  
GAGE OK 50 68 43 76 / 40 20 10 0  
PONCA CITY OK 53 69 47 70 / 30 20 10 0  
DURANT OK 58 70 51 74 / 40 40 10 0  
 

 
   
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
25/17  
 
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