847  
FXUS64 KOUN 131103  
AFDOUN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK  
503 AM CST WED DEC 13 2017  
   
AVIATION
 
 
12Z TAFS - VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS  
WILL SHIFT FROM THE S AND SW TO THE NW TODAY.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 308 AM CST WED DEC 13 2017/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION WERE THE MAIN FOCUS  
FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
AREA TODAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S. WINDS WILL  
SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST/WEST TO THE NORTHWEST TODAY AS A BOUNDARY  
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO THE WARM TEMPERATURES, BREEZY  
WINDS, LOW HUMIDITY, AND DRY VEGETATION. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR  
CONDITIONS TO POSSIBLY MEET RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE IN NW  
PARTS OF THE FA. NW WINDS IN THIS AREA WILL BE THE STRONGEST ALONG  
WITH LOW HUMIDITY, HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS  
WARM AS AREAS FURTHER SOUTH AND THE WIND SPEEDS COULD REMAIN BELOW  
20 MPH FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WITH THE OFFSET OF SOME OF THE  
PARAMETERS AND SOME QUESTION ON WHETHER WILL MEET RED FLAG WARNING  
CRITERIA WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WARNING FOR NOW BUT WILL ISSUE A  
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT AND LET THE DAY SHIFT MONITOR THE SITUATION.  
 
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE  
WARMING AGAIN ON SATURDAY WHEN WINDS WILL HAVE SHIFTED BACK TO THE  
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS  
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE NOW  
SHOWING SOME MOISTURE RETURNING TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA SO  
HUMIDITIES MAY NOT BE AS LOW FOR SOME AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD  
NOT BE AS WARM AS PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED AS WELL.  
 
MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING WITH PRODUCING SOME PRECIPITATION OVER THE  
WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES NE ACROSS TEXAS INTO PARTS OF SE  
OKLAHOMA. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY  
NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA WITH THIS SHORTWAVE. THE  
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS SOME  
PRECIPITATION ALSO OCCURRING LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK  
AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE MOISTURE MAY HAVE MOVED  
OUT OF THE AREA BY THE PREVIOUS SHORTWAVE BY THEN WHICH WOULD MAKE  
PRECIPITATION HARDER TO OCCUR SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AFTER  
SATURDAY FOR NOW AND SEE IF THIS MODEL TREND CONTINUES AS WELL.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 65 34 48 30 / 0 0 0 0  
HOBART OK 67 32 50 27 / 0 0 0 0  
WICHITA FALLS TX 68 32 53 30 / 0 0 0 0  
GAGE OK 64 32 48 23 / 0 0 0 0  
PONCA CITY OK 63 30 46 28 / 0 0 0 10  
DURANT OK 69 36 52 31 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
09/25/25  
 
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