162  
FXUS64 KOUN 300133 AAA  
AFDOUN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK  
833 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016  
   
UPDATE
 
 
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT NOT GO COMPLETELY AWAY.  
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY  
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN NW/W  
CENT OK NEAR THE PLUME OF BETTER MOISTURE SEEN ON WV SATELLITE  
IMAGERY. LOWERED POPS FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA  
FOR THIS EVENING. OVERALL, THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.  
DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND HOURLY GRIDS TO  
SHOW CURRENT TRENDS. ALL UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 757 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
 
AVIATION...  
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ARE EXPECTED TO  
SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE NEW ONES BEGIN TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, MOSTLY  
FROM THE EAST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED APART FROM  
THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
ONGOING SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY  
EVENING. PRIMARY HAZARD FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL  
THAT COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE TO THE SLOW STORM  
MOTION AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7-2.0" (>90TH  
PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY). OVERNIGHT, THE PRIMARY CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA--NEAR THE TEXAS  
BORDER---ALONG A MOIST AXIS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-  
LEVEL RIDGE.  
 
DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW  
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION BECOMES NEGLIGIBLE AND A  
RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. THE HIGHEST CHANCES  
APPEAR TO BE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA/WESTERN NORTH TEXAS, WHICH  
WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL/500 MB RIDGE THAT MAY  
SHIFT SLIGHTLY WESTWARD. THE WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE  
SHOULD SLIGHTLY DECREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS  
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY.  
 
AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, A DIFFUSE  
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT MAY  
INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON WEDNESDAY. RELATIVELY  
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION THURSDAY,  
WHICH SHOULD DECREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON THURSDAY AND  
FRIDAY. WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE, FRIDAY MORNING LIKELY WILL BE  
THE COOLEST THIS WEEK.  
 
THE DRIER AIR WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS  
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S THIS WEEKEND. IN RESPONSE, SOUTHERLY WINDS  
AND A MOIST AIRMASS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY SUNDAY. THE  
STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW/VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS CURRENTLY PROGGED  
TO STAY JUST NORTH OF OKLAHOMA--ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS  
--THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONSEQUENTLY, THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS/STORMS AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ARE  
EXPECTED TO STAY TO THE NORTH; HOWEVER, INCREASED INSENTROPIC  
ASCENT/WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS/STORMS.  
 
AN EMBEDDED, STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY PUSH A COLD  
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT  
WEEK.  
 
MAHALE  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 70 90 71 89 / 20 30 20 50  
HOBART OK 69 89 69 89 / 30 40 30 50  
WICHITA FALLS TX 71 91 72 92 / 20 40 20 40  
GAGE OK 64 86 65 85 / 60 50 60 50  
PONCA CITY OK 70 89 69 86 / 20 40 30 50  
DURANT OK 72 93 73 93 / 20 30 10 30  
 

 
   
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
25/09  
 
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