040  
FXUS64 KOUN 181138 AAA  
AFDOUN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK  
638 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2018  
   
AVIATION
 
 
18/12Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL  
MOST TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING, WHEN TSRA PROGD TO INCREASE IN  
COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST. GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER  
NORTHWEST INTO NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, BUT SCATTERED TSRA WILL BE  
POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS KSPS TOWARD AND AFTER 00Z NEAR QUASI-  
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN AND NEAR  
TSRA, WITH IFR LIKELY WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT BEYOND FORECAST  
PERIOD ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 337 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2018/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
WILL STILL BE A HOT AND HUMID DAY NEAR THE RED RIVER AND POINTS  
SOUTH, SO THAT AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY  
THIS AFTERNOON. POSSIBILITY FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER AND  
ALSO MUCH OF THE REGION BEING POST FRONTAL WILL SHAVE A FEW  
DEGREES OFF HIGHS.  
 
MCV JUST WEST OF AMARILLO WILL LIKELY BE A FACTOR IN CONVECTIVE  
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND  
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. SEVERAL OF THE CAMS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS  
SO WILL ADD/INCREASE POPS DOWN THAT WAY FOR POTENTIAL NEAR AND  
JUST NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MORE WIDESPREAD  
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, IN THE FORM OF LARGE MCS, STILL EXPECTED TO  
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TOWARD AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS  
CONSISTENT IN MOVING MCS EASTWARD MAINLY OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA  
WITH TRAILING END ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. WHILE  
STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, THE POTENTIAL FOR  
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE MORE OF A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT AND  
SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENT FORECASTS HAVE THE HEAVIEST RAIN OVER FAR  
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, WHERE WELL OVER 2 INCH 3 HR/FFG VALUES WILL BE  
SEEN.  
 
REMNANT MCS WILL LIKELY BE EXITING OKLAHOMA SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE  
AFTERNOON, WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF CLEARING EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL  
AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS COULD LEAD TO  
ENOUGH RECOVERY TO ALLOW SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO  
DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ALONG A COLD FRONT. DEEP LAYER  
SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS UPPER TROUGH  
PROGRESSES OVER THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE  
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREATS, WITH THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE THIS  
DEVELOPMENT BEING NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF THE INTERSTATE-44 CORRIDOR.  
 
OUTSIDE OF THE POSSIBILITY FOR LINGERING SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST  
PARTS OF OKLAHOMA EARLY MONDAY MORNING, MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE  
EXPECTED TO BE COOLER AND RAIN FREE. DEVELOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW  
COULD STILL BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF RAIN ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT AND  
EARLY WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. GFS  
CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, WHILE THE ECM IS STRONGER AND  
FARTHER EAST WITH THE UPPER RIDGE. THE ECM HAS BETTER DPROG/DT  
RESULTS IN ITS FAVOR, AND IS CLOSER TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS WILL  
RESULT IN LOWER-THAN-INITIALIZED POPS WITH MORE FOCUS OVER THE  
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OKLAHOMA.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 87 71 85 67 / 10 70 60 30  
HOBART OK 88 70 90 67 / 30 70 40 20  
WICHITA FALLS TX 94 74 94 71 / 30 50 30 40  
GAGE OK 84 67 85 62 / 30 80 30 10  
PONCA CITY OK 89 70 82 65 / 0 70 80 30  
DURANT OK 94 75 92 73 / 20 40 30 50  
 

 
   
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
06/11  
 
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