691  
FXUS64 KOUN 180451  
AFDOUN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK  
1051 PM CST SAT FEB 17 2018  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06 UTC TAFS IS BELOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
AFTER 09 UTC, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WORSENING CONDITIONS  
WILL OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.  
 
BELIEVE THAT MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AND  
ARRIVE AT SITES EAST OF KLTS-KCSM-KAVK 09-15 UTC. KWWR AND KGAG  
MAY ALSO BE AFFECTED BY MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS, THOUGH  
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION THESE LOWER CONDITIONS AT THESE  
TWO SITES. EVEN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WITH BR/FG COULD OCCUR  
12-18 UTC.  
 
ALL SITES ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MVFR OR BETTER AFTER 18 UTC  
SUNDAY THOUGH THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT IFR CONDITIONS COULD  
LINGER AFTER 18 UTC ANYWHERE EAST OF KLTS-KCSM-KAVK.  
 
CHANCES FOR -RA ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT ANY TAF SITE AT  
THIS TIME.  
 
MBS  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 244 PM CST SAT FEB 17 2018/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
OVERNIGHT, PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AND  
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT  
OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO ON  
SUNDAY, WHICH WILL RESULT IN MOISTURE RETURN FROM SOUTHERN AND  
CENTRAL TEXAS. A RATHER WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED WHICH WILL INCREASE  
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. DRIER AIR  
MAY REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON  
HUMIDITY BETWEEN 25-30 PERCENT, PERHAPS LOWER. A FIRE WEATHER  
WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR A FEW COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.  
 
AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THAT RATHER WARM 85H TEMPERATURES WILL  
KEEP ELEVATED CONVECTION CHANCES RATHER LOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE SOUTH  
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.  
 
A DRYLINE WILL PUSH TO AROUND HIGHWAY 81 MONDAY AFTERNOON, PERHAPS  
FARTHER EAST. A RATHER NARROW AXIS OF HIGHER INSTABILITY IS  
EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE DRYLINE MONDAY AFTERNOON.  
SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAINED CAPPED  
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  
 
BETTER CHANCES OR RAIN AND ELEVATED STORMS WILL ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT  
INTO TUESDAY AS A WESTERN TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS SHOULD ALSO  
COINCIDE WITH A FEW EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH  
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  
 
ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SOME STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT WHICH  
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA  
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE STATE  
BEHIND THE FRONT, THERE MAY BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN TO CHANGE  
TO FREEZING RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE  
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.  
 
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS  
ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPS/MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 37 64 58 73 / 0 10 20 30  
HOBART OK 38 71 57 77 / 0 10 10 10  
WICHITA FALLS TX 40 71 61 79 / 0 20 30 20  
GAGE OK 38 72 54 75 / 0 0 10 0  
PONCA CITY OK 34 62 56 73 / 0 10 20 30  
DURANT OK 41 59 58 69 / 0 30 30 40  
 

 
   
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004-005-009-010.  
 
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
23/17  
 
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