453  
FXUS64 KTSA 300826  
AFDTSA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK  
326 AM CDT THU MAR 30 2017  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
UPPER CLOSED LOW WAS POSITIONED ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING  
WITH DRY SLOT EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM EAST  
TEXAS NORTH INTO WESTERN MISSOURI. EARLY MORNING RADAR TRENDS SHOW  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN MISSOURI  
AND ARKANSAS WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT BAND OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO  
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WRAP-  
AROUND SHOWERS INDICATED SURFACE LOW WAS IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND  
WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST INTO MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
TODAY WILL BE A BIT BLUSTERY AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT  
OF THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY WHERE CLOUD COVER IS  
ABUNDANT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA  
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS THE LOW MOVES EAST.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND FRIDAY WITH THE REGION ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN  
SYSTEMS AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN PLACE. NEXT SYSTEM ALREADY ON THE  
HORIZON, CURRENTLY MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE  
TROUGH WILL TAKE A DIVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN BEFORE MOVING OVER THE  
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND EJECTING OUT ONTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS  
WEEKEND. MODELS NOW DIFFER WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THE SYSTEM WILL TRAVEL  
AND HOW QUICKLY IT WILL MOVE EAST. REGARDLESS, THE SYSTEM WILL BRING  
A GOOD CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, LIKELY  
BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE FIRST WAVE AND  
THEN ANOTHER ROUND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE  
ANY SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA,  
ESPECIALLY IF THE DEEPER SOUTHERN TRACK PERSISTS. IF THE TRACK  
TRENDS A BIT MORE NORTH, SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE.  
 
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MAKE AN APPEARANCE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA, WITH SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY FORMING ALONG THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TUL 53 41 71 52 / 30 0 0 10  
FSM 59 43 76 51 / 20 0 0 0  
MLC 59 43 79 55 / 10 0 0 0  
BVO 53 38 67 47 / 50 0 0 10  
FYV 51 41 71 50 / 30 10 0 0  
BYV 51 43 67 48 / 30 10 0 0  
MKO 56 41 74 53 / 20 0 0 0  
MIO 52 40 66 48 / 50 10 0 0  
F10 59 42 74 54 / 10 0 0 0  
HHW 65 46 81 54 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OK...NONE.  
AR...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...30  
LONG TERM....11  
 
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