978
FXUS64 KTSA 162056
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
356 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2012
DISCUSSION
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS JUST ENTERING FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS DEPICTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES BY
THE THIN LINE OF CUMULUS THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY. A
FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI ALONG THE BOUNDARY
BUT DEVELOPMENT AS FAR WEST AS OUR FORECAST AREA APPEARS HIGHLY
UNLIKELY AND A DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT THURSDAY AND SOUTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UPWARD TREND IN OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO
SHOW A MODEST INCREASE. THE INCREASE IN WINDS AND DEWPOINTS WILL
HELP HOLD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW 90 IN MOST PLACES THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.
THE ECMWF HAS CONTINUED THE TREND IT BEGAN OVERNIGHT WITH A MORE
AGGRESSIVE SOUTHWARD PUSH TO THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE AND THE FINAL
OUTCOME IS LIKELY TO BE DETERMINED BY THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
THAT CAN DEVELOP AND HELP FORCE THE BOUNDARY SOUTH. THE TREND IS
FOR A SLIGHTLY QUICKER FRONT SO SUNDAY NIGHT NOW LOOKS TO BE THE
MOST FAVORABLE TIME FOR RAIN IN OUR AREA AND WILL END ALL POPS
AFTER MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO WASH OUT.
A RETURN TO VERY WARM WEATHER WILL THEN ENSUE FOR THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 90 AND LOWS IN THE
70S BECOMING COMMON JUST BEYOND THE RANGE OF THIS FORECAST.
STAYED CLOSE TO THE COOLER GFS MOS FOR LOWS THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS
AND WENT AT OR ABOVE THE WARMER NAM MOS FOR HIGHS THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 58 88 62 89 / 0 0 10 10
FSM 59 88 62 89 / 0 0 10 10
MLC 55 86 60 87 / 0 0 10 10
BVO 54 88 59 89 / 0 0 10 10
FYV 50 84 56 85 / 0 0 10 10
BYV 50 85 57 86 / 0 0 10 10
MKO 56 86 60 87 / 0 0 10 10
MIO 54 85 60 86 / 0 0 10 10
F10 57 86 61 87 / 0 0 10 10
HHW 57 86 61 87 / 0 0 10 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....05
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