718  
FXUS64 KTSA 222035  
AFDTSA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK  
335 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2017  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
BROAD UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA CONTINUES TO  
RESULT IN CYCLONIC NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW OVER THE PLAINS STATES  
WITH TREY WARM SECTOR AIR SUPPRESSED WELL TO OUR SOUTH AT PRESENT.  
LEAD SHORTWAVE HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN  
INTO CENTRAL OK THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO  
SPREAD INTO EASTERN OK THIS EVENING. LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL  
KEEP THE CHANCE OF THUNDER ISOLATED THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL.  
 
STRONGER SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW CURRENTLY NEAR BLACK HILLS  
REGION WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY, OFFERING  
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, AGAIN  
WITH VERY LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER, THOUGH SMALL HAIL  
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH A FEW STORMS TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON AS COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPS ACCOMPANY WAVE PASSAGE. FRONT  
WILL BRING AN ATYPICAL AIRMASS FOR LATE MAY OVER THE REGION MID-  
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL  
THROUGH WED NIGHT.  
 
THE WARM AND HUMID AIR WE MORE OFTEN EXPERIENCE THIS TIME OF YEAR  
SHOULD RETURN LATE THIS WEEK WITH UPPER FLOW TRENDING MORE WEST  
OR SOUTHWESTERLY WITH TIME AND LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE GULF.  
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENCES WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING  
THROUGH THE PLAINS AND DRIVING ANOTHER FRONT SOUTH OVER MEMORIAL  
DAY WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS AND ATTENDANT SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT  
WILL BE EARLY IN THE WEEKEND, WITH FRONT BRINGING COOLER AND  
DRIER AIRMASS SOUTH FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TUL 56 68 49 70 / 50 40 10 10  
FSM 59 73 50 69 / 50 50 20 20  
MLC 55 69 49 72 / 50 40 10 0  
BVO 53 68 47 69 / 50 30 10 10  
FYV 53 66 47 63 / 50 50 20 30  
BYV 55 66 47 63 / 40 60 30 30  
MKO 57 67 48 69 / 50 40 10 10  
MIO 54 67 47 65 / 50 40 20 20  
F10 56 66 49 70 / 50 40 10 10  
HHW 56 71 51 73 / 50 30 10 0  
 

 
   
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OK...NONE.  
AR...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...12  
LONG TERM....14  
 
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