344  
FXUS64 KTSA 252017  
AFDTSA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK  
317 PM CDT WED APR 25 2018  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST  
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG UPPER WAVE.  
MAIN PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY EARLY  
EVENING, HOWEVER WRAP AROUND LIGHT PRECIP WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE  
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT ON  
BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING SYSTEM.  
 
SECONDARY UPPER WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON  
THURSDAY WITH LIMITED RAIN CHANCES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY. OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT/ISOLATED GIVEN THE LIMITED  
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE. MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO  
THE DAY FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH  
HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A WARM/DRY WEEKEND ON TAP  
AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN  
ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHERLY WINDS  
INCREASE.  
 
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TUESDAY  
INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING/DEEPER GULF MOISTURE SPREADING  
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE OPERATIONAL  
MODELS WITH INITIAL SHORT WAVE AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS TO  
BE EXPECTED THIS FAR INTO THE EXTENDED. STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE  
WEATHER/HEAVY RAINFALL AROUND MID WEEK, HOWEVER THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT  
ON EVENTUAL TIMING OF THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES AND OVERALL  
EVOLUTION OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TUL 43 70 46 71 / 20 0 20 0  
FSM 49 71 50 72 / 50 10 20 0  
MLC 46 70 48 71 / 10 0 20 0  
BVO 41 70 42 71 / 20 0 20 0  
FYV 45 66 43 68 / 60 10 20 0  
BYV 47 66 46 69 / 70 10 20 0  
MKO 44 68 46 70 / 20 10 20 0  
MIO 45 69 45 69 / 60 10 20 0  
F10 43 68 47 70 / 10 0 20 0  
HHW 44 70 50 71 / 10 0 20 0  
 

 
   
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OK...NONE.  
AR...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...14  
LONG TERM....12  
 
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