459  
FXUS64 KTSA 180533  
AFDTSA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK  
1133 PM CST SAT FEB 17 2018  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
THE DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAF FORECAST CAN BE FOUND BELOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.  
IN THE NEAR TERM, THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE VALLEY FOG AT THE W AR  
SITES. AS EXPECTED, DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT FYV, AND IS  
EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP AT FSM. XNA IS ALSO EXPERIENCING  
SOME FOG. THESE SITES WILL SEE IFR OR SUB-IFR CONDITIONS THRU  
AROUND 13Z. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL RESULT IN IFR CIGS AT  
MLC BY AROUND DAWN, WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON  
BEFORE GOING MVFR. IN A CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, TRENDS  
SUGGEST THAT MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT NORTH INTO NE OK SITES AS SOON AS  
18Z, AND MAY SCATTER OUT BRIEFLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONG  
GUSTY S WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON SUNDAY.  
 
LACY  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 934 PM CST SAT FEB 17 2018/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER  
ARKANSAS THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND ACROSS MUCH OF  
OUR FORECAST AREA. DEEPENING TROUGH THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL  
RESULT IN VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND OVERNIGHT THEN STRONG SOUTHERLY  
WIND SUNDAY. VALLEY FOG HAS ALREADY RESULTED IN VARIABLE  
VISIBILITIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN AR THIS EVENING, WHICH WILL  
LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP INTO SERN  
OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT, AND THEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NERN OK  
SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES STILL LOOK TO RETURN LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY  
NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY MONDAY-TUESDAY. ONGOING FORECAST IS  
TRENDING WELL THIS EVENING AND NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 PM CST SAT FEB 17 2018/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
 
THE DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAF FORECAST CAN BE FOUND BELOW.  
 
AVIATION...  
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.  
THE LATEST HRRR IS HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME VALLEY FOG AT  
FSM TONIGHT. SINCE FYV IS PRONE TO VALLEY FOG AS WELL, ESPECIALLY  
AFTER THE RECENT RAIN EVENT, HAVE INSERTED TEMPO GROUPS AT BOTH  
SITES FOR IFR FOG AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  
INCREASING HIGH CLOUD OVERCAST AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS  
SHOULD LEAD TO ITS DEMISE SUNDAY MORNING. THE HRRR ALSO SUGGESTS  
THAT THE INITIAL NORTHWESTWARD SURGE OF LOW CLOUDS/MOISTURE WILL  
MISS OUR AREA TO OUR WEST INITIALLY ON SUNDAY. GIVEN SOME  
UNCERTAINTY, FEW TO SCT LOW CLOUD GROUPS WERE MAINTAINED IN THE E  
OK TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE MOST PART ON SUNDAY,  
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOW END VFR CIGS BY THE END OF THE DAY. STRONG,  
GUSTY S WINDS WILL ALSO PREVAIL ON SUNDAY.  
 
LACY  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM CST SAT FEB 17 2018/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
A RATHER UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT  
WEEK, WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL EXPECTED.  
DESPITE THE OVERNIGHT RAINFALL, FIRE DANGER WILL BE A CONCERN  
SUNDAY AS GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP, AND TEMPERATURES WARM  
INTO THE 60S. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY RETURN NORTH SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY  
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY EVENING.  
 
THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY  
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE  
AREA. A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE,  
BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN.  
 
SOME DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TUESDAY  
NIGHT, BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD LIGHT  
PRECIPITATION BACK OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. SURFACE  
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHERN  
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA, SO THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS LIGHT  
FREEZING RAIN IN THAT AREA.  
 
A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AND LAST INTO THE WEEKEND,  
BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE, WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING  
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 
STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TUL 35 63 57 71 / 0 0 40 50  
FSM 34 62 54 71 / 0 0 40 50  
MLC 36 63 58 70 / 0 10 40 50  
BVO 29 64 55 73 / 0 0 40 50  
FYV 28 59 53 67 / 0 0 40 50  
BYV 31 60 52 68 / 0 0 40 50  
MKO 35 63 56 70 / 0 0 40 50  
MIO 32 62 54 69 / 0 0 40 50  
F10 36 63 57 70 / 0 0 40 50  
HHW 38 62 56 72 / 0 10 40 50  
 

 
   
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OK...NONE.  
AR...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
AVIATION.....30  
 
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