144  
FXUS64 KTSA 270723  
AFDTSA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK  
223 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
LATEST CAM MODELS INDICATE WE SHOULD SEE A DAY SIMILAR TO  
YESTERDAY ACROSS THE REGION. MOIST AND WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT  
WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS, WITH COVERAGE  
DROPPING OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. THE MID LEVEL FLOW  
WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY, DUE MOSTLY IN PART TO  
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SHOULD  
SHUNT THE DEEP LAYER MOIST AXIS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST A  
BIT, AND THUS LESS COVERAGE OF STORMS AREA WIDE ON THURSDAY  
AFTERNOON.  
 
THE STRENGTHENING NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR  
MCS'S TO ROLL OFF THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO OUR AREA DURING THE  
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING TIME PERIOD. THE MOST FAVORED TIME  
WINDOW WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, AND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO  
SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK OF THE MCS  
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF TRACKS THE SYSTEM INTO OUR  
AREA, WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS IT WILL DIVE MORE SOUTH INTO W OR  
CENTRAL OK. WILL STAY IN THE MIDDLE GROUND FOR POPS UNTIL THIS  
BECOMES FAIRLY CLEAR. RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ON SATURDAY WILL  
PUT AN END TO THIS BRIEF WINDOW FOR MCS ACTIVITY.  
 
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED YET AGAIN OVER THE HEART  
OF THE COUNTRY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO HOT AND DRY  
WEATHER, ASIDE FROM SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS IN THE TERRAIN  
OF SE OK/W AR.  
 
LACY  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TUL 93 74 93 73 / 50 20 20 50  
FSM 95 74 93 74 / 50 30 40 30  
MLC 94 73 93 73 / 50 30 30 20  
BVO 92 70 93 69 / 30 20 20 50  
FYV 90 70 89 68 / 50 30 40 30  
BYV 89 71 89 69 / 50 30 40 30  
MKO 93 73 93 72 / 50 30 30 40  
MIO 92 72 92 71 / 30 20 30 30  
F10 93 74 93 73 / 50 30 20 40  
HHW 95 74 93 73 / 50 30 40 20  
 

 
   
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OK...NONE.  
AR...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
LONG TERM....30  
 
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