410  
FXUS64 KTSA 290453  
AFDTSA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK  
1153 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016  
   
AVIATION
 
 
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.  
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING,  
WITH KFYV MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MAINLY THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA  
SITES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 944 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/  
   
.UPDATE
 
 
DISCUSSION...  
THIS EVENING...A WEAK BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE  
THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO MISSOURI AND  
THE UPPER MIDWEST...WHILE A DRYLINE WAS LOCATED FROM NORTH  
CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS. SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS  
OCCURRING ALONG/NEAR THE DRYLINE AS AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX LIFTED  
FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO TEXAS. ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND  
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THE CAP CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN WITH THE MAIN  
AREAS OF WARM ADVECTION AND STRONGER LLJ SHIFTING BACK WESTWARD  
INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...WHICH HAS ALLOWED TO KEEP THE CWA DRY  
THROUGH THIS EVENING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WERE  
COMMON OVER THE CWA.  
 
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO  
MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE RED RIVER BY SUNDAY MORNING. ONGOING  
CONVECTION WITH THIS VORT MAX SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT  
PROGRESSES INTO MORE STABLE AIR THE CLOSER TO THE CWA IT GETS WITH  
SOME ASSOCIATED HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING INTO THE REGION BY EARLY  
MORNING SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE WEAK BOUNDARY OVER THE CWA  
IS EXPECTED TO LOSE IT DEFINITION WHICH SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT  
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL ISN'T ZERO.  
THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH TONIGHT'S POP GRIDS JUST BELOW  
MENTIONABLE CRITERIA.  
 
ALSO TONIGHT...AS THE BOUNDARY BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE...LIGHT  
WINDS...TEMPS COOLING TO/NEAR THE DEWPOINT AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO  
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECAST BY EARLY MORNING SUNDAY. THESE  
CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP  
ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH AT THIS TIME ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS  
TO KEEP ANY MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. THUS...FOR  
EVENING UPDATE...HAVE ADDED MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMP/SKY/DEWPOINT/WIND  
GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS OTHERWISE CURRENT  
FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OK...NONE.  
AR...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
AVIATION...05  
 
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