521  
FXUS64 KTSA 270002  
AFDTSA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK  
702 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
CONVECTION OVER NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA HAS BECOME ORGANIZED WITH ITS  
COLD POOL PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AT THIS TIME.  
CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS COLD POOL  
HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE NORTH OF I-40 AND  
WEST OF HIGHWAY 75. EXPECT ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING EAST AND  
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH TIME FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS. UPDATED  
FORECAST PRODUCTS ALREADY ISSUED TO REFLECT HIGHER THUNDERSTORM  
CHANCES MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 625 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016/  
 
AVIATION...  
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.  
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL OK WILL  
CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST AND SOUTHEAST...IMPACT THE KBVO/KTUL  
AND KRVS TAF SITES SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THIS ACTIVITY MAY HOLD  
TOGETHER AND TRACK TOWARD NORTHWEST AR LATER THIS EVENING.  
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR  
CIGS/VSBYS IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
WE WILL CANCEL THE HEAT ADVISORY WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE AS  
DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A BIT LOWER THAN EXPECTED, WHICH HAS  
KEPT MOST HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW THE 105 THRESHOLD. ISOLATED TO  
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED,  
AND THESE ARE RESULTING IN SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IN  
A FEW SPOTS.  
 
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE OVER THE NEXT WEEK, WITH NEAR  
DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A MYRIAD OF SURFACE  
BOUNDARIES WILL BE LYING ACROSS THE AREA, WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE  
BOUNDARIES BEING MUDDLED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE  
UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE TO THE WEST RESULTING IN STRONGER  
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR AREA BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE  
COMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR PERIODIC  
MCS'S TO ROLL SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.  
 
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL MAINLY BE DRIVEN BY CONVECTIVE  
COVERAGE, WITH THE DAYS OF GREATEST STORM COVERAGE BEING LESS HOT.  
ENJOY THE TEMPORARY BREAK FROM THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES  
THIS COMING WEEK, AS LONG RANGE PROGS SHOW THE HEAT WILL RETURN IN  
FULL FORCE AROUND AND JUST AFTER THE FOURTH OF JULY.  
 
STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.  
 

 
   
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OK...NONE.  
AR...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...69  
AVIATION...18  
LONG TERM...05  
 
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