279  
FXUS64 KTSA 131142  
AFDTSA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK  
542 AM CST WED DEC 13 2017  
   
AVIATION
 
 
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.  
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS  
MORNING AND THEN SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST THIS  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA. GUSTS  
IN THE 15-25KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGHER GUSTS OVER  
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY. WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME LIGHT  
OUT OF THE NORTH. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO SCATTERED  
HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 317 AM CST WED DEC 13 2017/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
DETERIORATING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN  
TODAY ACROSS EASTERN OK/NORTHWEST AR. THE PERSISTENT DRY AIRMASS  
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES WELL IN THE 60S WILL DROP AFTERNOON RH  
VALUES TO NEAR 20 PERCENT OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA. WINDS  
(INITIALLY SOUTHWEST...SHIFTING TO WEST/NORTHWEST DURING THE  
AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT) SHOULD REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG  
CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH WE'LL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR SPEEDS  
ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OK. WILL ISSUE A FIRE DANGER  
STATEMENT AREAWIDE.  
 
COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WITH WARMER TEMPS BY  
SATURDAY AS STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. POOR FIRE WEATHER  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS RH VALUES  
DROP TO AROUND 25-35 PERCENT.  
 
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT NOW EJECTING A CLOSED LOW FROM  
MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE SATURDAY. MOISTURE  
RETURN APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY  
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK INTO  
WESTERN AR.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TUL 67 34 47 30 / 0 0 0 10  
FSM 65 35 49 29 / 0 0 0 0  
MLC 68 35 49 29 / 0 0 0 0  
BVO 68 30 46 26 / 0 0 0 10  
FYV 61 29 43 23 / 0 0 0 0  
BYV 63 30 41 27 / 0 0 0 10  
MKO 67 34 46 29 / 0 0 0 0  
MIO 63 30 43 25 / 0 0 0 10  
F10 68 34 48 31 / 0 0 0 0  
HHW 69 37 53 30 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OK...NONE.  
AR...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
AVIATION.....20  
 
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