965
FXUS64 KTSA 302019
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
319 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016
DISCUSSION
SURFACE RIDGE POSITION ALONG WITH THE CONTINUATION OF LOW
DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN YET ANOTHER COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.
NOT EXPECTING LOWS QUITE AS CHILLY AS SEEN THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH
HAVE GONE AT OR A BIT BELOW THE LOWEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS. OHIO
VALLEY UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTHEAST...ALLOWING FOR WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP BY SUNDAY. OVERALL...THE WEEKEND IS
LOOKING FINE WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS FOR SATURDAY AND A BIT ABOVE
AVERAGE BY SUNDAY.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY DRAW BACK IMPROVED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS IS AHEAD OF A LONGWAVE TROF THAT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE
ROCKIES AND PLAINS BY MID-WEEK. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
NOTED AMONG THE EXTENDED MODELS...AND CONSENSUS SUGGESTS
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST TIMEFRAME FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION EAST BY
THURSDAY...WITH COOLER/DRIER WEATHER SHAPING UP FOR THE END OF
NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 51 79 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 54 81 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 48 82 52 83 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 45 77 49 80 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 45 76 47 79 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 46 73 47 77 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 50 80 51 81 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 49 76 51 79 / 0 0 0 0
F10 50 80 54 81 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 53 84 53 85 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....18
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