466  
FXUS64 KTSA 010732  
AFDTSA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK  
232 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
 
- DAILY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS  
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE REST OF THIS WEEK WITH LOCALLY HEAVY  
RAINS, DOWNBURST WINDS, AND LIGHTNING BEING THE PRIMARY  
HAZARDS.  
 
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK  
WITH HEAT INDICES GENERALLY 95-103 F ACROSS THE AREA. SOME  
MINOR RELIEF WILL BRIEFLY OCCUR ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(TODAY)  
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
 
A QUIETER DAY IS IN STORE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS A FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY HAS WORKED ITS WAY SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER, TAKING MOST OF  
THE STORM CHANCES WITH IT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SURFACE  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE REGION, ALONG WITH LIGHT  
NORTHERLY WINDS, BRINGING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR AND LOWER HUMIDITY  
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S  
WILL BE COMMON WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES HELD IN CHECK, MOSTLY BELOW  
95 DEGREES, BY THE LOWER DEWPOINT AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE  
FRONT. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE CLOSER TO  
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG THE RED RIVER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT  
OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE MUCH LESS THAN RECENT DAYS.  
 
BOWLAN  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
 
COOLER, SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, TEMPS LOOK TO CONTINUE TONIGHT  
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE DRIER AIR HOLDING HEAT INDICES DOWN ONCE  
AGAIN. MOST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY ON WEDNESDAY AS  
WELL, WITH A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN MAINLY  
NEAR THE RED RIVER WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES. THE SURFACE  
HIGH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EASTWARD LATER WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER  
HEIGHT SUBSEQUENTLY RISING OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL  
LIKELY TICK UPWARD FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK INTO THE  
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH AN UPTICK IN THE HUMIDITY LEVEL ALSO LIKELY  
GIVEN THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. DAILY ISOLATED  
TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL STAY IN THE FORECAST  
THROUGH THE PERIOD, THOUGH THE EXPECTATION IS MOST PLACES WILL  
REMAIN DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. HEAT AND HUMIDITY  
WILL ALSO LEAD TO HEAT INDEX VALUES TOPPING OUT FROM 100 TO 105  
DEGREES AREAWIDE.  
 
GUIDANCE SIGNALS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD TOWARD THE  
END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODESTLY STRONG  
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION.  
VARIOUS WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW COULD BRING HIGHER STORM  
CHANCES TO PARTS OF THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY PART  
OF NEXT WEEK. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR GREATER  
AGREEMENT IN THIS SCENARIO AS IT EVOLVES. OTHERWISE, FAIRLY  
TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER IS IN STORE THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST.  
 
BOWLAN  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
 
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE, ESPECIALLY AT  
KFYV.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
TUL 89 68 89 71 / 0 0 10 10  
FSM 92 70 92 71 / 0 0 10 0  
MLC 90 68 91 71 / 10 0 10 10  
BVO 88 64 88 67 / 0 0 10 10  
FYV 87 65 88 66 / 0 0 10 10  
BYV 87 64 88 66 / 0 0 0 0  
MKO 88 67 88 69 / 0 0 10 10  
MIO 87 65 87 66 / 0 0 0 10  
F10 87 67 88 70 / 0 0 10 10  
HHW 90 71 91 72 / 20 10 10 0  
 
 
   
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
OK...NONE.  
AR...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...04  
LONG TERM....04  
AVIATION...05  
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