079
FXUS64 KTSA 041951
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
251 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
DISCUSSION
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE OVERNIGHT/
MORNING CONVECTION. THIS BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
NEAR A KRUE-KRKR-KMLC LINE. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 90S WHILE NORTH
OF BOUNDARY TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S.
WILL CONTINUE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH 7 PM FOR AREAS SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY AS A FEW LOCATIONS ARE SEEING HEAT INDEX
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 105. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS
THIS EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 70 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT
THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.
WOULD EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO OCCUR LATE IN
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH AREA. THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO LINGER INTO SUNDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ON SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A WARMING TREND
WILL ENSUE ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND BUILDS INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH TEMPERATURES
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 90S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE AROUND
105. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL ALSO EFFECTIVELY SHIELD THE
AREA FROM ANY PRECIPITATION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 71 86 66 89 / 40 10 10 10
FSM 74 86 65 88 / 70 20 10 10
MLC 72 87 64 89 / 60 20 10 10
BVO 67 84 60 90 / 20 10 0 10
FYV 67 79 59 84 / 70 20 10 10
BYV 66 80 61 83 / 60 20 10 10
MKO 69 83 63 87 / 70 10 10 10
MIO 66 82 62 88 / 30 10 10 10
F10 70 85 64 88 / 60 10 10 10
HHW 73 90 67 91 / 50 40 10 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ073-
OKZ075-OKZ076.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....10
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