826
FXUS64 KTSA 070116
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
816 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2008
DISCUSSION
QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE ISOLATED THUNDER
FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ZONES.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 621 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2008/
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
ONGOING ISOLATED STORMS SHOWING LESS VIGOR THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY THUS MINIMAL MENTION IN EARLY EVENING TAF HOURS. UPPER
RIDGE EVEN MORE DOMINANT TOMORROW THUS BENIGN SUMMER TIME
CONDITIONS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2008/
DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER DAY SHAPING UP...WITH TEMPS RUNNING AROUND 90
AND DEWPOINTS FROM THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. BEGINNING TO SEE A FEW
CU DEVELOP OVER THE TERRAIN OF SE OK/WRN AR...AND A STRAY SHRA/TSRA
ISN/T COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR MONDAY...WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES LIKELY QUITE CLOSE TO TODAYS READINGS. MAV GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A SLIGHT WARM BIAS ON THE HIGHS...BUT WITH
SEVERAL DAYS OF DRYING NOW...IT/S NOT TOO FAR OFF.
A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL AID IN DROPPING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS KS ON MONDAY..AND EVENTUALLY INTO NE OK BY LATE TUESDAY.
STRONG AFTERNOON INSTABILITY...THE LACK OF ANY CAP AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS
OUR NRN SECTIONS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GFS/ECMWF QPF FIELDS AREA
SUGGESTIVE OF MCS ACTIVITY ALONG THE OK/KS...MO/AR BORDERS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
RAISED ONCE THE SITUATION BECOMES A BIT MORE CLEAR. GIVEN THE VERY
HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BE A CONCERN.
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF BUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE
BACK OVER THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS...BUT WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE WEEKEND FORECAST FOR
NOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 74 96 76 94 / 0 10 10 20
FSM 71 94 72 94 / 10 10 10 10
MLC 72 96 74 93 / 0 10 10 10
BVO 69 95 71 93 / 0 10 10 30
FYV 67 90 68 90 / 10 10 10 20
BYV 69 91 69 89 / 10 10 10 20
MKO 70 95 72 93 / 0 10 10 20
MIO 71 94 73 91 / 0 10 10 30
F10 70 95 73 93 / 0 10 10 20
HHW 72 95 74 94 / 0 10 10 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
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