215  
FXUS61 KBGM 241112  
AFDBGM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY  
712 AM EDT MON JUL 24 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS,  
HEAVY AT TIMES, THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE SYSTEM WILL START TO  
MOVE AWAY WITH RAIN TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT  
AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER  
FOR WEDNESDAY.  

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
3 AM...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BRING RAIN, MODERATE TO  
HEAVY AT TIMES, OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN AREAS FLOODING/FLASH  
FLOODING. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS THAT THE VERY HEAVIEST OF THE  
RAIN HAS EASED HOWEVER PARTS OF NORTHERN PA THROUGH BRADFORD AND  
SUSQUEHANNA COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK  
THROUGH BROOME AND TIOGA COUNTIES HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 2 TO 4  
PLUS INCHES OF RAIN RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING. THERE HAVE BEEN  
REPORTS OF NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES AS WELL AS WATER RESCUES.  
WHILE THERE ISN'T A LOT OF INSTABILITY LEFT TO WORK WITH,  
CONCERN IS THAT ON THE LARGER SCALE, THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  
CONTINUES TO BETTER ORGANIZE ITSELF AS MAIN SHORTWAVE CONTINUES  
TO DIG SE TOWARD THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP SET UP CONTINUING  
LARGE SCALE ASCENT HEADING INTO THIS MORNING AIDED BY DUAL UPPER  
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ALSO SETTING UP. IN FACT, MULTIPLE MODELS  
SUGGEST THIS WILL HELP SET UP ANOTHER PERIOD OF MODERATE TO  
HEAVY RAIN RIGHT OVER NORTHERN PA INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER  
HEADING TOWARD 12Z SO EXPECT MUCH OF THIS AREA THAT HAS ALREADY  
BEEN AFFECTED BY FLASH FLOODING TO SEE AT LEAST ANOTHER HALF  
INCH TO INCH OF RAIN BY MID MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN  
CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH  
FLOODING RIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS EAST  
INTO THE CATSKILLS AND SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NE PA  
WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDDAY. AGAIN,  
BIGGEST CONCERN WITHIN THESE AREAS WILL BE AREAS THAT HAVE  
ALREADY RECEIVED FLOODING.  
 
LATER MONDAY MORNING, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN  
RAIN/SHOWERS AS THE INITIAL SLUG OF MOISTURE FINALLY MOVES OFF  
TO THE EAST. HOWEVER THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL BE  
UPSTREAM AND THIS WILL FINALLY SWING THROUGH DURING THE  
AFTERNOON INTERACTING WITH SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL STILL BE  
HUNG UP OVER WESTERN NY. THIS COUPLED WITH INSTABILITY DUE TO  
WEAK HEATING WILL HELP SPARK ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS  
WHICH WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE PLAIN AND MOVE EAST/SE  
THROUGH THE AREA. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE  
WON'T BE QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT WITH PWATS ONLY 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES  
AS OPPOSED TO 1.75+ INCHES. ALSO, THE LINE LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY  
PROGRESSIVE. ORDINARILY THIS WOULD MEAN FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING  
WOULD NOT BE A BIG CONCERN HOWEVER GIVEN CURRENT FLOODING AND  
HOW LITTLE OF A BREAK THERE WILL BE ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS  
COULD RESULT IN RENEWED FLOODING FOR AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY  
EXPERIENCED FLOODING. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THAT MODELS ARE  
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR UPWARDS OF AROUND 1000 J/KG OF ML  
CAPE OVER THE FINGER LAKES WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 40 KNOTS  
SO IT'S POSSIBLE SOME STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME SEVERE AND  
PRODUCE STRONG WINDS. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHETHER  
ANY SUNNY BREAKS AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP. BEST  
CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS NE PA NORTH INTO THE  
SOUTHERN TIER AND N/W INTO THE FINGER LAKES.  
 
MONDAY NIGHT...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN  
SHOWERS/STORMS DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY HOWEVER THE UPPER TROUGH  
WILL BE VERY SLOW TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS WILL RESULT  
IN CONTINUING LIGHTER SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL COOL  
DOWN WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING AWAY HOWEVER  
INDICATIONS ARE THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ON THE BACKSIDE  
OF THE SYSTEM TO STILL RESULT IN SOME CONTINUING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED  
SHOWERS UNDER CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL BE COOL FOR  
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW  
70S.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRY AND  
COOL WEATHER WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.  
 
MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY WITH  
TEMPERATURES MODERATING A FEW DEGREES AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO  
THE EAST SETTING UP A RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH. A COUPLE  
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT  
OTHERWISE EXPECT A MAINLY DRY DAY.  
 
MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH A FEW  
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL NY  
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
5 AM UPDATE...IN THE BIG PICTURE, WEATHER LOOKS TO TURN MORE  
ACTIVE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES  
THROUGH. FORECAST MODELS DISAGREE ON THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM  
THOUGH SO IT'S A LITTLE EARLY TO KNOW WHETHER THERE WILL BE  
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM IT IN TERMS OF EITHER SEVERE WEATHER OR  
HYDRO ISSUES. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, AT THIS POINT NEXT WEEKEND  
LOOKS TO SEE AN OVERALL DRYING TREND WITH SEASONABLE  
TEMPERATURES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
RAIN CONTINUES INTO THIS MORNING WITH MOST SITE SEEING VFR  
PREDOMINATE WITH OCCASIONAL DROPS TO MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. THE  
EXCEPTION WILL BE KAVP WHERE THE RAIN IS A BIT HEAVIER SO EXPECT  
MAINLY MVFR WITH WITH VISIBILITY OCCASIONALLY DROPPING TO IFR  
IN HEAVIER RAIN UNTIL AROUND 14Z. MOST SITES SHOULD SEE A LULL  
IN THE RAIN BY LATER THIS MORNING HOWEVER ANOTHER ROUND OF  
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AFTER 18Z  
BRINGING FURTHER RESTRICTIONS TO AT LEAST MVFR FOR MOST SITES.  
CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION IS HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION THUNDER IN  
THE TAFS FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KRME.  
 
SHOWERS AND STORMS FINALLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING BUT EXPECT A  
LOW STRATUS DECK TO SET UP BY THE OVERNIGHT. MOST SITES SHOULD  
SEE FUEL ALTERNATE MVFR WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY FOR KITH/KRME/KBGM.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
TUESDAY ...PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AS WELL AS LOW CIGS.  
 
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.  
 
THURSDAY & FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS-STORMS WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.  

 
   
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-  
047-048-072.  
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NYZ024-025-044>046-  
055>057-062.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...PCF  
NEAR TERM...PCF  
SHORT TERM...PCF  
LONG TERM...PCF  
AVIATION...KAH/PCF  
 
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