335  
FXUS61 KBGM 141152  
AFDBGM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY  
752 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH  
ROUNDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS LEADING TO SOME FLASH FLOODING THIS  
MORNING, AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON  
AND EVENING. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NORTH OF THE  
REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY  
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
430 AM UPDATE...  
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE ONGOING  
THREAT OF FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAIN TODAY ON TOP OF ALREADY SATURATED  
SURFACES.  
 
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY AND HAS BEEN EXTENDED  
THROUGH THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL  
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.  
 
LARGE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OVER NY/PA THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO  
ROTATE SLOWLY EWD TODAY AND COMBINE WITH RICH SOURCE OF DEEP  
LAYER MOISTURE TO PRODUCE STEADY RAIN SHOWERS...WITH EMBEDDED  
HEAVIER BURSTS THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS  
ENHANCING THE LARGE-SCALE LIFTING, AND WEAK INSTABILITY IS  
HELPING TO GENERATE MODERATE ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS  
W-CENTRAL NY...IN THE CENTRAL FINGER LAKES REGION THIS MORNING.  
THE CONTINUOUS SUPPLY OF MOISTURE FROM THE EAST...WITH 1.75-2  
INCH PWATS ADVECTING IN...ALIGNED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT  
AND CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH  
A GOOD PORTION OF THE REST OF THE MORNING AND ALLOW FOR THE SAME  
AREAS TO SEE A STEADY DOSE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. HAVE  
ALREADY SEEN A FEW REPORTS OF AROUND 1 INCH IN A COUPLE  
HOURS...AND 2.5 INCHES IN ABOUT 3 HOURS. THESE RAINFALL RATES  
WILL LIKELY BE TOO MUCH TO HANDLE IN SATURATED SOILS AND LEAD TO  
NEARLY INSTANT RUNOFF AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES.  
 
THE AREA WE ARE WATCHING THIS MORNING IS FROM SENECA FALLS TO  
WATKINS GLEN INTO TO NE STEUBEN COUNTY. AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES HAS  
FALLEN SINCE LATE LAST EVENING, AND ANOTHER BATCH OF MOD-HVY  
RAIN TO THE NORTH APPEARS TO BE TAKING AIM AT THIS AREA IN THE  
NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS, WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE FURTHER FLOODING  
ISSUES IN SRN SENECA, ERN YATES AND NRN SCHUYLER COUNTIES.  
 
THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING FOR  
ALL OTHER LOCATIONS OF CENTRAL NY AND NE PA...WITH SLOW MOVING  
STORMS PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY BURSTS. HOWEVER, THE NEXT ROUND  
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS  
THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES AND MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPS.  
THE UPPER LOW SHOULD START TO PICK UP MOVEMENT LATER TODAY,  
WHICH MAY GIVE THE STORMS ENOUGH MOTION TO HELP MITIGATE THE  
HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING THREAT. THE CONCERN LATER TODAY WILL  
BE WITH THE SHORT-DURATION HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...WHERE A QUICK  
0.5 TO 1 INCH IN AN HOUR OR LESS WILL WORSEN ANY ON-GOING  
PROBLEMS. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL NY  
AND NE PA, BUT THE AREAS OF CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE  
CENTRAL SRN TIER AND CATSKILLS IN NY AND ALL OF NE PA WHERE MOST  
SURFACES ARE FAIRLY SATURATED.  
 
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD TAPER OFF LATER THIS  
EVENING AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT TO THE EAST. A FEW LIGHT RAIN  
SHOWERS MAY LINGER TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AS WELL.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
430 AM UPDATE...  
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY, AND ALLOW MUCH OF  
THE REGION TO DRY OUT, AT LEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE  
AFTERNOON HEATING ALLOWS FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WEAK  
STORMS. AIR MASS SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY ALOFT, SO NOT EXPECTING  
ANY SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN THREAT.  
 
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY WED EVENING WITH QUIET  
WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT WED NIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM  
BEGINS TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS  
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY THROUGH THE DAY.  
TEMPERATURES WED AND THUR SHOULD BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
3 AM UPDATE...  
 
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS PERIOD ESPECIALLY EARLY. A PROGRESSIVE  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES FROM THE MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO OUR  
AREA SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL BE A SURFACE LOW THAT  
PASSES JUST TO THE NORTH BUT MULTIPLE FRONTS WILL PASS THROUGH.  
TIMING OF THE FRONTS WILL BE CRITICAL TO HOW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS  
WILL BE AND HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS. AT THIS TIME, MODELS HAVE AN  
AFTERNOON WARM FRONT AND EVENING COLD FRONT. WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST  
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAK AROUND 2  
INCHES. MORE FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S  
WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 80S. ANOTHER HUMID DAY WITH DEWPOINT  
TEMPERATURES AROUND 70.  
 
THE REST OF THE DAYS, LOWER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT  
STILL SOME WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENING BUT STALLING ON THE  
EAST COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN BUT MIGHT NOT  
SUCCEED WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT. THESE DAYS MAINLY SCATTERED TO  
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS AROUND 60.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
740 AM UPDATE...  
 
AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLY EVEN THUNDERSTORMS  
WILL CONTINUE TODAY. CEILINGS AND VSBYS COULD VARY WIDELY  
ESPECIALLY AT ELM, ITH AND AVP EARLY. GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS  
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR LATE TODAY AND EVENING. SOME CLEARING  
TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO FOG AND FUEL ALTERNATE CIGS LATE. POSSIBLY  
LOWER CONDITIONS IN SOUTH CENTRAL NY WHERE THE BETTER RAIN IS.  
 
NORTHWEST AT 4 TO 8 KTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT..  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...PRIMARILY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF  
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED CONVECTION.  
 
FRIDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.  
 

 
   
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-  
047-048-072.  
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ022>025-044>046-  
055>057-062.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...BJT  
NEAR TERM...BJT  
SHORT TERM...BJT  
LONG TERM...TAC  
AVIATION...TAC  
 
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