008
FXUS61 KBGM 060142
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
942 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2008
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL LIFT
NORTH AND DISSIPATE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL REKINDLE AGAIN OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHERN
NEW YORK SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
FILLING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NY WILL LIFT TO THE
EAST OVERNIGHT. ANY LINGERING...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA
ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE. A WARM FRONT SLOWLY MOVING NORTH MAY
TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN BY DAYBREAK ACROSS
NORTHERN PA...BUT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY WILL WAIT UNTIL
LATER IN THE DAY AS NEXT WAVE LIFTS INTO THE AREA FROM PA.
AREAS OF LATE NIGHT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE ONCE AGAIN LIKELY TO
FORM IN THE VALLEYS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/
WARM FRONT OVER THE MASON-DIXON LINE WILL FALL APART AS IT MOVES
NORTH LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST PA AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN
NY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
HIGHER DEW PTS... A LITTLE MORE CAPE... AND A WEAKLY COUPLED
UPPER- LEVEL JET PATTERN IS ALSO FORECAST ON SUNDAY... WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE TO THE STORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON COMPARED TO TODAY. CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG AND WEAK WIND
FIELDS WILL RESULT IN ANY STORMS BEING OF THE PULSE VARIETY.
AN UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY... BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA. NAM
CAPES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 1000-2000 J/KG J/KG WTIH THE
PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM... WITH LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS
FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 20 KTS OR LESS. PWAT VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO APPROACH 2 INCHES MONDAY SO SOME SLOW-MOVING STORMS
COULD PUT DOWN LOCALIZED 2 INCH PLUS RAIN AMOUNTS.
NEXT SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATER
TUESDAY... WITH POPS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
STILL NOT SEEING MANY CHGS NEEDED TO EXTNDD PORTION OF THE FCST.
MODELS AGREE ON KEEPING TROFFINESS IN THRU THE WEEK WITH THE BEST
CHC FOR RAIN AHEAD OF CDFNT ON WED. CUD BE SOME LINGERING POPS DRG
THE DAY THURSDAY AS GFS IS A LITTLE SLOW TO MV TROF OUT. HWVR...HV
CONTINUED TO KEEP THUR DRY BY STICKING WITH CONTINUITY.
THERE IS INDICATION IN GFS/EURO THAT THE WEST COAST RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN BY THE WEEKEND WITH H5 RIDGING ACRS EAST COAST FOR A
TIME. THIS WUD KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN CHCS TO OUR NORTH AFTER
THURSDAY AND HV KEPT DRY FCST THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM. AFTER
A BRIEF COOLDOWN FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY HV BROUGHT
TEMPS BACK ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL WX PATTERN AND AIRMASS THROUGH SUNDAY...
ALTHOUGH THIS EVENING IS A FEW DEGREES DRIER THAN LAST
NIGHT...ESPLY AT KAVP. SOME MVFR-IFR MIST/FOG AND LOW STRATUS
CIGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE USUAL SUSPECT SPOTS KELM-KAVP
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HRS...BUT GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY
NOT BE AS DENSE OR PROLONGED AS EARLY THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE VFR
WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING S-SW 5-8 KTS BY 18Z SUN.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED...VFR. ISOLD MVFR -TSRA PSBL DURG EACH
AFTN/EVE. LOCAL IFR FG PSBL ESPLY AT KELM DURG LATE NIGHT/EARLY AM
EACH DAY. CUD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN/THUNDER DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AHD OF AN APPCHG CDFNT. WINDS EXPECTED TO RMN OUT OF THE
SOUTH THRU THE PD.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...PVB
AVIATION...JAB
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