028  
FXUS61 KBGM 221406  
AFDBGM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY  
1006 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT ON  
FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH SHOWERS  
SPREADING IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY, WHILE A SLOW MOVING CYCLONE  
BEGINS TO TRACK OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY.  
 
THE MARINE CLOUD LAYER IN THE POCONOS IS BURNING OFF THIS  
MORNING BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO  
NORTH TODAY. WITH DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE, WE TRENDED ANY SHOWER  
CHANCES LATER WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS HOLDING OFF TILL THE  
EVENING OR LATER. OVERALL, WE ARE GOING TO GET ONE MORE MOSTLY  
SUNNY DAY IN BEFORE THE WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES HAVE ROSE VERY  
QUICK THIS MORNING. HIGHS SHOULD END UP WELL INTO THE 70'S WITH  
EVEN AN 80 OR TWO NEAR SYRACUSE AND ROME WHERE IT WILL BE  
TOTALLY SUNNY THE LONGEST.  
 
WITH A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY, CLOUD COVER  
WILL BE DENSE AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OFF-AND-ON THROUGH THE  
DAY. THIS WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES, HOLDING READINGS IN  
THE LOWER-70S FOR THE MOST PART.  
 
WHILE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY APPEARS MEAGER ON SATURDAY,  
LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE A LITTLE BETTER AND SUGGESTIVE OF ISOLATED  
CONVECTION.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
SATURDAY NIGHT...INITIAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE  
AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD DURING  
THE EVENING HOURS WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDER DUE TO MID  
LEVEL INSTABILITY. AFTER MIDNIGHT ACTIVITY WILL BE JUST  
SCATTERED AT BEST AS WAVE MOVES EAST AND FORCING WEAKENS.  
 
SUNDAY...SECONDARY TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION WITH THE BEST  
LIFT AND INSTABILITY OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL  
ADVERTISE CHANCE POPS DURING THE MORNING THEN LIKELY IN THE  
AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS INDICATE THE  
BEST SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND  
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE MID  
TO UPPER 70S.  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH AREA  
DURING THE EVENING HOURS RESULTING IN DECREASING COVERAGE BY  
LATE EVENING. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE FAR  
SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING AS SOME SURFACE  
BASED INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE AVAILABLE EARLY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
MONDAY MORNING THERE STILL MAY BE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS  
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS  
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. BY THE AFTERNOON HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN  
CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.  
 
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH  
A WARMING TREND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RESIDES OVER THE  
NORTHEAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE LOCAL AREA  
TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE  
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS  
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS  
FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO EASTERN CANADA.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS  
EVENING. THE CLOUD DECK WHICH BROUGHT A BRIEF MVFR CEILING TO  
KAVP HAS BURNED OFF.  
 
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A 5000-10000  
FOOT CEILING THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL LOWER TO AROUND  
4000-6000 FEET OVERNIGHT, WITH SHOWERS SPREADING INTO KELM AND  
KAVP BETWEEN 3Z AND 6Z.  
 
SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION AFTER 6Z SATURDAY  
MORNING, WITH AVP, BGM, ELM, AND ITH LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE  
CEILINGS BETWEEN 1200 AND 2500 FEET, AND POSSIBLY MVFR  
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIVE  
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.  
 
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.  
 

 
   
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...DJP  
NEAR TERM...DJP/MWG  
SHORT TERM...RRM  
LONG TERM...RRM  
AVIATION...DJP  
 
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