273
FXUS61 KBGM 261942
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
342 PM EDT FRI APR 26 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CALM AND
DRY CONDITIONS. A WARM FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS FORECAST SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY, WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON TUESDAY AS A FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
230 PM UPDATE
DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO THE EVENING, AS
TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID-50S BY SUNSET.
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO INCREASE BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM; SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
BETWEEN 5 TO 15 MPH FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES FALL FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING, BUT THEN LEVEL
OFF LATE AT NIGHT WITH THE GRADUAL INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND
WINDS...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S.
SATURDAY MORNING LOOKS TO START OFF DRY WITH PLENTY OF LOW AND
MID LEVEL DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE. HIGH CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN
THROUGH THE DAY. THERE ARE VERY MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCE IN THE
CAMS, LIKELY DEPENDING ON JUST HOW FAST THE LOW LEVELS CAN
MOISTURE UP. OVERALL, THE CONSENSUS IS FOR LIGHT RAIN TO BREAK
OUT WEST OF I-81 BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
LIGHT RAIN SPREADING EAST OF I-81 DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE INITIALLY, TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID-50S LATER IN THE DAY DUE TO
WET BULBING AS THE COOL RAIN FALLS. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE I-90 CORRIDOR TO MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE MORNING
SUNSHINE ONLY GRADUALLY FADES AND SHOWERS HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY
EVENING...HIGHS LOOK TO REACH 60-65 DEGREES HERE. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL BE LIGHT;
GENERALLY UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CLOUDS LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE AREA. LATER
AT NIGHT ELEVATED INSTABILITY ARRIVES AND THERE COULD BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER CNY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
STRONG INVERSION REMAINING PRESENT OVER THE AREA BELOW 925MB,
BUT THEN POTENTIALLY SEVERAL HUNDRED OR MORE J/KG OF ELEVATED
CAPE OVER THE FINGER LAKES AND CENTRAL NY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
IT WILL BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
3 PM UPDATE...
ALL OF CNY AND NEPA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS PERIOD. A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHEAST US. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY MID 70S TO LOW 80S MONDAY. DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID
50S TO AROUND 60 WILL GIVE A HINT OF SOME SUMMER HUMIDITY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S. MONDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE FINGER
LAKES WILL BE AROUND 60 AS CLOUDS COME IN.
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS.
THERE IS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A WEAK SURFACE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MONDAY NIGHT RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE AS A WEAK WARM FRONT APPROACHES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FOR TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
330 PM UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
EVENING WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE 70S MIDDAY BEFORE THE STEADIER RAIN
MOVES IN. INSTABILITY ON ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS NOTEWORTHY,
AROUND 500-1,000 J/KG SURFACE CAPE WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW
60'S. IN TERMS OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
IS MODELED TO BE AROUND 20-40 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH
MAY LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS WITH
A GUSTY WIND THREAT. OF COURSE THIS FAR OUT TIMING OF THE FRONT
CAN HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON INSTABILITY. LAPSE RATES LOOK POOR FOR
ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TOO. SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AFTER A BREAK IN SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, ANOTHER SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA AS THE
UPPER LEVEL BROAD RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD BACK IN. IN GENERAL THERE
IS A WARM WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW. A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHEAST INTO NY/PA WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY.
NEPA HAS THE BETTER CHANCE OF DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING COMPARED TO CNY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL FALL
INTO THE 60S FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
130 PM UPDATE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR MOST OF THIS TAF PERIOD
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS. MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR
SKIES PERSIST THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SOME HIGH LEVEL
CIRRUS CLOUDS BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH THE CLOUDS LOWERING TO A VFR STRATUS DECK
BETWEEN 5K TO 15K FT AGL BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND MIDDAY.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS BEGIN TO TRAVERSE THE AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EVENING (AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD).
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TRANSITION SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON REMAINING UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) IS EXPECTED AT ELM AND SYR AS
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT INCREASE UP TO 30-35KTS AT 2K FT AGL
BY ABOUT 08Z TO 12Z EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. BY MIDDAY AND EARLY
AFTERNOON SURFACE WINDS INCREASE, OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 10-20 KTS
FOR MOST OF OUR TAF SITES.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY..RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
RAIN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
T'STORM IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR; SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MWG/TAC
AVIATION...ES/MJM
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