802  
FXUS61 KBGM 291946  
AFDBGM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY  
346 PM EDT MON MAY 29 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
OVERNIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY WITH PATCHY FOG. SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY PRIMARILY  
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS  
DEVELOPED ALONG WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE  
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. TO THE EAST A COOL SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES  
WITH OVERCAST SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 50S ALONG  
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS THIS  
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH A LITTLE FARTHER EAST BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY  
SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE WESTERN CATSKILLS  
AND POCONOS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM I81 EAST  
THROUGH EARLY EVENING OTHERWISE THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE DRY  
UNTIL WE APPROACH DAYBREAK. SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING  
LOW STATUS AND AREAS OF FOG ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA, THE  
WESTERN CATSKILLS AND SOUTHERN TIER. LOW WILL RANGE IN THE 50S.  
 
TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE CAPE VALUES OF 800-1200  
J/KG IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. A MID  
LEVEL SHORT WAVE, DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50 KNOTS AND FAIRLY  
STRONG MID LEVEL WIND FIELD WOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF  
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST AREA FOR THIS ACTIVITY WOULD  
BE THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND SOUTHERN TIER. THE PRIMARY THREAT  
WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. AREAS FARTHER  
EAST MAY NOT DESTABILIZE ENOUGH DUE TO PERSISTENT STRATUS.  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY  
EVENING HOURS THEN THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE  
FAIRLY QUIET DUE TO LIMITED FORCING.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
225 PM UPDATE...  
 
NO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN ARE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE  
OF THE WEEK. A PERSISTENT TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE  
NORTHEASTERN CONUS, WITH A SHORT WAVE SPREADING SHOWERS INTO NY  
AND PA ON WEDNESDAY.  
 
SHEAR LOOKS STRONG ON WEDNESDAY (50 KNOTS) WITH CAPE VALUES  
AROUND 300-600 J/KG. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO  
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER  
60S TO LOWER 70S.  
 
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL NOSE INTO WESTERN PA ON THURSDAY, BRINGING  
A FEW BREAKS OF SUN. AN ISOLATED SHOWER REMAINS POSSIBLE.  
 
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF  
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
THE UPPER ATMOSPHERIC TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT  
WEEKEND, THOUGH THE ENERGY WILL FOCUS MORE ON ONTARIO AND  
QUEBEC. WHILE THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW MORE BREAKS OF SUN ACROSS  
NY AND PA, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.  
 
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL, WHILE THE  
CLOUDY AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL TEND TO SUPPORT TEMPERATURES  
OVERNIGHT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS  
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, THE EXCEPTION IS KELM WHICH IS ALREADY  
VFR AND KAVP NOT UNTIL EARLY EVENING. AT KRME/KSYR/KITH/KBGM,  
MVFR SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT A  
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS BACK INTO THE  
TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR KSYR. AT KAVP/KBGM/KELM/KITH, IFR/ALTERNATE  
MINIMUM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM APPROXIMATELY 06Z-12Z. AT  
KRME ALTERNATE REQUIRED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. IMPROVEMENT TO  
MVFR/ALTERNATE REQUIRED IS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING WITH  
SHOWERS POSSIBLY IMPACTING ALL TERMINALS BUT KBGM/KAVP. LATER  
IN THE AFTERNOON MORE SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE.  
 
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND  
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT THEN SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS MONDAY  
MORNIRNG.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR.  
 
FRIDAY...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS.  
 

 
   
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...RRM  
NEAR TERM...RRM  
SHORT TERM...DJP  
LONG TERM...DJP  
AVIATION...RRM  
 
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