190  
FXUS61 KBGM 241919  
AFDBGM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY  
319 PM EDT MON APR 24 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE  
REGION, AS A WEAK STORM CENTER TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A  
FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, BEFORE DRIER  
CONDITIONS DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THICKER HIGHER CLOUDS STREAMING  
NORTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST PA AND SOUTHEAST NY WITH  
THINNER CIRRUS FARTHER NORTH REACHING THE SOUTHERN TIER. GOES-16  
IMAGERY DOES SHOW THIS HIGHER THICKER CLOUD COVER SLOWLY MOVING  
NORTH AND IN TIME AS PER MODEL DATA WILL REACH THE PA-NY BORDER  
BY AROUND 03Z AND NORTHERN NY BY 09-12Z.  
 
THESE HIGHER CLOUDS WERE ADVANCING NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A  
WELL-DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER GA WHICH WILL TRACK EAST-  
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY REACHING THE EASTERN NC COAST.  
WARM AND MOISTURE ADEVECTIONS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT OVER  
NORTHEAST PA AND CENTRAL NY AND SPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION  
NORTHWARD. THE LOW-LEVELS WERE VERY DRY AT FIRST SO WE EXPECT  
THE ONSET OF THE RAIN WILL BE DELAYED BY A FEW HOURS VS RADAR  
REFLECTIVITY PROJECTIONS.  
 
THE FIRST BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN REACHES INTO NORTHEAST PA BETWEEN  
03Z-06Z. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT INITIALLY AND BLOSSOMS  
MORE BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z AS IT REACHES INTO NORTHERN NY AS A  
SHORT WAVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTERCEPTS IT AND ENHANCES  
THE LIFT. THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF STEADY RAIN REACHES  
NORTHEAST PA BY AROUND 12-15Z TUESDAY AND 15-18Z ACROSS THE  
REST OF CENTRAL NY. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS FROM WEST TO  
EAST LATE IN THE DAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
245 PM UPDATE... TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, THE COASTAL  
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT OUT TO SEA. AS A RESULT, LINGERING  
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST-EAST.  
 
RESIDUAL LOWER CLOUDINESS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, SHOULD BEGIN  
TO BREAK UP BY LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY WEST  
OF THE INTERSTATE 81 CORRIDOR. SINCE THE ABOVE MENTIONED  
DISTURBANCE HAS NO REAL COOL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT, WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON WILL BE MILD, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S  
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS, TO AROUND  
70 DEGREES FOR OUR FINGER LAKES AND LAKE ONTARIO PLAIN COUNTIES.  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE, AS WE RESIDE UNDER A NARROW  
RIDGE AXIS, IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING COASTAL CYCLONE, AND A VERY  
SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. GIVEN A WEAK  
S-SE FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, SOME OF OUR MODELS ARE BRINGING  
A MARINE-TYPE CLOUD LAYER INTO AT LEAST PARTS OF NEPA AND THE  
SOUTHERN TIER OF NY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DETAILS ARE STILL  
SKETCHY THIS FAR OUT, SO WE'LL HAVE TO WAIT ON THIS FOR A BETTER  
CONSENSUS. FOR NOW, WE'LL OPT FOR PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN  
FAR EASTERN AREAS, AND CLEAR-PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FARTHER WEST,  
WITH MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE 50S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
3 PM UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE, A TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER  
THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY THIS PERIOD, WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE  
SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A RESULTANT BROAD SW  
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS CNY/NEPA WILL BRING GENERALLY WARMER  
TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH PERHAPS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS, AS  
MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVES ARE LIKELY TO BE EMBEDDED.  
 
AS FOR THE DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER, THURSDAY LOOKS RAIN-FREE AND  
WARM, AS THE COLD FRONT IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION REMAINS WELL OFF  
TO THE WEST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL  
TRACK ACROSS CNY/NEPA WHILE WEAKENING. AT LEAST SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED, THOUGH.  
 
NEXT WEEKEND, THE POSITION OF A W-E ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY  
WILL BE KEY TO OUR WEATHER, WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES LIKELY  
SOUTH OF THE FRONT, AND COOLER, MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS LIKELY  
TO THE NORTH OF IT. FOR NOW, DUE TO UNCERTAINTY, WE'VE RETAINED  
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH  
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES,  
WE'LL GO WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE 60S ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN  
AREAS (SOUTHERN TUG HILL AND MOHAWK VALLEY ZONES), WITH UPPER  
70S-LOWER 80S DOWN OVER NEPA.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON  
THROUGH MOST OF THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH AND  
THEN MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION. LIGHT EASTERLY  
WIND WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS  
TONIGHT AND THEN 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS TUESDAY  
MORNING. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN TO A LOWER VFR DECK WITH APPROACH  
OF SYSTEM BETWEEN 9Z AND 12Z TUESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD  
REACH KAVP- KELM- KBGM-KITH BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z AND AROUND 16Z  
OR SO KRME WITH RAIN. SYR LOOKS TO STAY LOW END VFR IN RAIN  
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS  
POSSIBLE, AS SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.  
 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR, OTHER THAN A BRIEF  
RESTRICTION/SHOWER STILL POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOR KBGM-KAVP.  
 
THURSDAY...VFR.  
 
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE, WITH AT LEAST  
SCATTERED SHOWERS ANTICIPATED ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER.  
 

 
   
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...DJN/MLJ  
NEAR TERM...DJN  
SHORT TERM...MLJ  
LONG TERM...MLJ  
AVIATION...DJN  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab NY Page
The Nexlab PA Page Main Text Page