861
FXUS61 KBGM 241755
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1255 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2009
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE TO THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS
FROM THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER INTO NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING. ANOTHER SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WAS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
PATCHY LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND MOVE NE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST NAM
AND RUC MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE ZONE AND
SOME LIGHT QPF POSITIONED ACROSS THE WYOMING VALLEY IN PA AND
CNTRL SRN TIER OF NY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT
SOLUTION SINCE YESTERDAY'S RUNS. WILL THUS INCREASE POPS OVER THE
SRN TIER AND NEPA ONLY TO MENTION DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON. SYNOPTIC
LIFT WILL BE DECREASING, BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH WEAK
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITHIN THE CONVERGENCE
ZONE AND ALSO TERRAIN INDUCED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME MENTION OF
PRECIP. OVERCAST SKIES WILL REMAIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR
EASTERN ZONES WHERE SATELLITE AND MODELS DO SUGGEST SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO FLIP FLOP SOMEWHAT OVER THE TRACK OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE UP THE EASTERN COAST
LINE BEGINNING TODAY ACTUALLY. THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF IN ITS
LATEST RUN...PUSHING THE LOW WELL EAST WHICH WILL KEEP ANY AFFECTS
OF THAT SYSTEM WELL AWAY FROM THE CWA. IT DOES INDICATE ANOTHER
LOW THAT WILL BE INLAND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LOW WILL
GENERATE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE CWA TO BRING SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS. SO ALL IN ALL...THE GENERAL FORECAST FOR RAIN
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY HAS NOT CHANGED. THE
ECMWF IS NOW SHOWING A STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS IS SOMEWHAT FASTER THEN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
HAVE OPTED TO NOT BITE OFF QUITE YET ON THIS COMING IN SO FAST.
ALTHOUGH...THE GFS IS NOW INDICATING THAT THE COLD AIR WILL BE
BROUGHT IN SOMEWHAT SOONER AS WELL. WILL NEED TO SEE MORE
CONSISTENCY IN THE RUNS BEFORE ADDING SNOW INTO THE FORECAST
EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN LONG TERM AS CWA WILL BE BHND DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM. AT SOME POINT EARLY ON IN THE EXTNDD...CLDR AIR WL FILTER
INTO FA. MOST OF THE 00Z MODELS DROP H8 TEMPS WELL BLO 0C BY 12Z FRI
WITH INCREASINGLY CLDR AIR PLUNGING IN BHND THE SYSTEM ALOFT. WITH
NW FLOW COMING OFF THE GREAT LKS AND UL LOW PROGGED TO SKIRT THRU FA
DRG THE DAY FRI...LKLY POPS CERTAINLY APPEAR WARRANTED. TEMPS ON
FRI WL DEPEND ON TIMING OF CAA AND WILL CONT WITH NR/LWR 40S FOR THE
AFTN ALTHO MAY BE MORE IN THE WAY OF FALLING TEMPS DRG THE DAY.
WITH TEMPS EXPECTED INTO THE 40S...HV RETAINED RA/SN MIX FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ON FRIDAY WITH RAIN LKLY ACRS LOWER TERRAIN. BY FRI
NGT...EXPECT MOST PLACES TO SWITCH OVR TO ALL SNOW WITH POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF LK PLAIN AND LOWER VLY AREAS WHERE RA/SN WL CONTINUE.
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACRS TUG HILL AND SUSQUEHANNA REGION MAY SEE SOME
ACCUMS WITH LES KICKING IN. HWVR...MARGINAL SFC TEMPS HOVERING ARND
FRZG MAY IMPACT HOW MUCH ACCUMS OCCUR HERE.
LES CONTS ACRS UPSTATE NY THRU SAT NGT UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...ALTHO
LOWERING INVERSION HGT EXPECTED WILL RESULT IN DCRSG CVRG THRU THE
WEEKEND. FLOW LKLY BACKS OUT OF THE SW ENUF TO END PCPN BY SUNDAY.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...MED RANGE MODELS HINTING AT ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM DVLPNG OVR SERN STATES BUT DISAGREE ON TIMING AND EVOLN THRU
MS/OH RVR VLYS WITH GFS MUCH QUICKER IN BOOTING LOPRES NORTH AND
EAST. THEREFORE NO CHGS MADE AFT MON AS BOTH MODELS INDICATE SOME
FORM OF PCPN POSSIBLE BY MON AFTN.
TEMPS WL SETTLE OUT NR NORMAL OVR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS ELM AND ITH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS... AND ISOLATED IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS. EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER AT THE OTHER TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON... WITH CIGS RANGING FROM VFR TO MVFR.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CLOUD BASES SHOULD LOWER ONCE AGAIN...WITH
PREVAILING MVFR ANTICIPATED.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KT EXPECTED.
FOR KELM...KITH...AND KAVP...MAINLY MVFR ANTICIPATED THROUGH 18Z
WEDNESDAY. LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...A PERIOD OF
IFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT FOG IS FORESEEN.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 KT WILL CONTINUE.
AT KBGM...PRIMARILY IFR ANTICIPATED THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...AS
LOW CEILINGS HANG IN. A PERIOD OF LIFR CEILINGS AND FOG NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KT EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...
WED NGT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
THU...MOSTLY VFR.
THUR NGT-FRI...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY...IN RAIN OR SNOW.
FRI NGT-SAT...RESTRICTIONS AGAIN POSSIBLE...IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
SUN...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE.
CLIMATE
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW LATE THIS WEEK/INTO THE WEEKEND IT MAY
COME JUST IN TIME TO KEEP ONE OF OUR CLIMATE LOCATIONS FROM
BREAKING AN ALL TIME RECORD. THE AIRPORT IN SYRACUSE, NY HAS NOT
SEEN AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW SINCE FEBRUARY 24TH OF LAST WINTER.
THROUGH TODAY (11/23) THAT IS A TOTAL OF 271 DAYS WITHOUT SEEING
AN INCH OR GREATER OF SNOWFALL. THIS IS GOOD ENOUGH FOR 3RD PLACE
ALL TIME. GIVEN OUR CURRENT FORECAST WE SHOULD MAKE IT THROUGH
THANKSGIVING WITHOUT SEEING AN INCH OF SNOW. IF THE FORECAST
VERIFIES...IT WOULD MOVE US INTO A TIE FOR 2ND. IN ORDER TO BREAK
THE RECORD OF 276 DAYS SET BACK IN 1946...WE WOULD NEED TO GET
THROUGH THIS SUNDAY (11/29) WITHOUT SEEING AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW
AT THE AIRPORT.
* THIS DATA WAS ACCESSED FROM THE THREADEX DATABASE USING DATA
FROM THE SYRACUSE AREA...NOT JUST THE AIRPORT. THESE RECORDS GO
BACK TO 1902.
BELOW IS A LIST OF THE TOP 5 ALL TIME LONGEST STRETCHES WITHOUT
SEEING AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW FOR SYRACUSE.
TOP 5
1) 1946 276 DAYS (FEB 27TH - DEC 1ST)
2) 1998 274 DAYS (MAR 22ND - DEC 22ND)
3) 2009 271 DAYS (THROUGH 11/23)
4) 1978 265 DAYS (MAR 6 - NOV 27)
5) 1932/1941 263 DAYS (MAR 21ST - DEC 10TH)
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...10
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...MSE
CLIMATE...
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