599  
FXUS61 KBGM 230030  
AFDBGM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY  
830 PM EDT SUN APR 22 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT,  
PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. A  
SHOWERY PERIOD WILL BEGIN LATER TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH  
THURSDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
830 PM UPDATE...  
 
THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS BEGINNING TO DECOUPLE AFTER A BEAUTIFUL  
SPRING DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT FEW  
HOURS AND BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER-30S ACROSS MOST OF OUR  
FORECAST AREA. THE SHELTERED VALLEYS COULD TOUCH THE UPPER-20S.  
 
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR.  
 
THE LATEST GRID UPDATE IS PUBLISHED.  
 
4 PM UPDATE...  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT PROVIDING  
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WHICH WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER COLD  
NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.  
 
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST BRINGING A  
MODERATING SOUTHERLY FLOW BY AFTERNOON. WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE  
HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.  
 
MONDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY  
BUT ONLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z TUE  
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL RESIDES OVER THE LOCAL AREA.  
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MID 30S IN THE WESTERN  
CATSKILLS TO LOWER 40S IN THE LAKE PLAIN.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
345 PM UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL  
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OVER THE REGION WITH DRY WEATHER  
INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING.  
 
THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT BACK TO A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE  
ACTIVE WEATHER BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH INITIALLY CLOUD  
COVER INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY, AND EVENTUALLY RAIN MOVING IN  
FROM THE S/SW LATE IN THE DAY OR EVENING. INCREASED CLOUD COVER  
WILL CAP HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S  
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT SOME MID-60S STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS  
THE NORTH, NEAR THE NY THRUWAY AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION.  
 
THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE ONSET OF RAIN  
TUESDAY, BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE RAIN WILL PUSH IN  
FROM THE SW SOME TIME DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A WEDGE  
OF VERY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE EARLY TUESDAY OVER THE  
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...AND WILL LIKELY SLOW  
DOWN THE ONSET TIME OF PRECIP AS THE ATMOSPHERE TAKES SOME TIME  
TO SATURATE. A WEAKENING UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL  
MOVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND PHASE WITH AN INCOMING  
SHORT WAVE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. WILL  
LIKELY SEE WIDESPREAD PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION  
WEDNESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM ROUNDS THE BOTTOM OF A LARGE SYNOPTIC  
TROUGH AND BECOMES REINVIGORATED. RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD RANGE  
FROM A QUARTER TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH.  
 
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGS COOLER WITH HIGHS  
ONLY REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.  
 
UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY SLIDES ACROSS CENTRAL NY WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT...KEEPING SHOWERS LIKELY HERE, WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS  
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST PA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE  
FROM THE MID-30S TO LOWER 40S...SO P-TYPE STILL LOOKS TO BE ALL  
RAIN IN MOST LOCATIONS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
345 PM UPDATE...COOLER AIR WILL TRY TO FILTER IN ON THE BACK  
SIDE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. THE RAIN IS  
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY (FROM  
SOUTH TO NORTH) WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO  
THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND  
SATURDAY. THE LATEST GFS WAS MUCH FASTER, BRINGING A SYSTEM WITH  
PERIODS OF RAIN INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WAS  
CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER SOLUTION FOR NOW...BUT DID HEDGE SOME  
CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE  
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING  
WEEKEND. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS DIFFERING OPINIONS ON THE TIMING OF  
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER,  
THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS THAT OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER A BROAD AND  
COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DURING THIS TIME. BEST CHANCE FOR  
SHOWERS WILL BE ON SATURDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS  
THROUGH...WITH LINGERING CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS INTO  
NEXT SUNDAY. OVERALL, RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK RATHER LIGHT FROM  
THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE  
LEVELS, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS MID-30S TO LOWER 40S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD CLEAR SKIES, FAIRLY LIGHT WIND FLOW,  
AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.  
 
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE  
SOUTHEAST TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.  
 
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLY LATE DAY WITH RAIN  
SHOWERS, PRIMARILY KAVP, KELM, KITH, KBGM.  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE  
IN RAIN SHOWERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.  
 
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.  
 

 
   
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...RRM  
NEAR TERM...DJP/RRM  
SHORT TERM...BJT/MJM  
LONG TERM...BJT/MJM  
AVIATION...DJP  
 
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