138
FXUS61 KCLE 260908
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
408 AM EST THU NOV 26 2009
SYNOPSIS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
INTO FRIDAY AND WEAKEN AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER LAKES FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
ANOTHER DRY SLOT ROTATING AROUND LOW PRESSURE THAT IS LOCATED OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS PUNCH OF DRIER AIR WILL ASSIST IN PUSHING THE
LIGHT SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION NORTH OF THE LAKE. THIS
WILL LEAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SURGE OF COOLER AIR
APPROACHES. FOR NOW WILL ONLY RAMP IT UP TO CHANCE POPS OUT WEST
BUT MAY HAVE TO MODIFY THE TIMING IF THE LOW MOVES EASTWARD FASTER
THAN CURRENT THINKING.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
FOR FOR AREAS WEST OF I-71. EVEN WITH THIS BRIEF APPEARANCE OF THE
SUN HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT WARM ALL THAT MUCH. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
ONLY SEE A 2 TO 5 DEGREE DIURNAL RANGE.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PASS OVER NORTHERN OHIO
AND LIFT INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH THE SURGE
OF COOLER AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING INCREASED LIFT TO THE
AREA. BY LATE IN THE EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP ENOUGH FOR A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW AWAY FROM LAKE
ERIE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE HILLTOPS OF THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS TO SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW ON GRASSY AREAS.
THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL
JET ENERGY SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL KEEP A COOL WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS LAKE ERIE. SINCE WATER TEMPERATURES REMAIN
IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT PRECIPITATION. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NE OHIO INTO NW PA
MAY SEE SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SOME INLAND LOCATIONS OF EASTERN ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES IN
NW PA TO SEE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. THE WARM GROUND SHOULD
LIMIT THESE ACCUMULATIONS TO GRASSY AREAS AND WILL LIKELY NEVER
BE MORE THAN AN INCH ON THE GROUND AT ANY TIME.
BY SATURDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA
SHUTTING DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION.
AFTER A COOL FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO SEASONAL LEVELS
FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL JUST BE EXITING THE AREA AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A WET DAY AND
LATER SHIFTS WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO BUMP RAIN CHANCES UP AT SOME
POINT. IT APPEARS THAT THE PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO
EAST ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING OCCURS FROM THE SW. TEMPS MONDAY
NIGHT COULD GET COLD ENOUGH FOR MIXED PRECIP ONCE AGAIN. IT NOW
APPEARS THAT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY. BOTH THE
00Z ECMWF AND GFS TRACK A LOW INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD HOLD OFF TILL
JUST AFTER THE PERIOD ENDS. THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT PUSH OF WARM
AIR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE BUMPED TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FOR
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FIRST BOUNDARY NEAR THE INDIANA/OHIO BORDER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT ANY RAIN TO ACCOMPANIED WITH
SCATTERED MVFR. SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT TOWARD SUNRISE.
SECOND STRONGER FRONT NOW ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL GIVE US A SECOND
SHOT OF RAIN...COULD DEFINITELY SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN. EXPECT
RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AS 850 MB TEMPS DIP TO MINUS
6C BY 12Z FRIDAY. EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IN THE SNOWBELT
EAST OF CLEVELAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK
MVFR AND LOCAL IFR GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WIDESPREAD VFR RETURNS SAT INTO
SUN THEN AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE NW OHIO LATE SUN...AND EVERYWHERE
SUN NIGHT AND MON.
MARINE
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALREADY IN EFFECT. BOUY 005 STILL
SHOWING 18 KNOTS ALTHOUGH THE LIGHTHOUSES ARE GENERALLY SHOWING
WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. WILL LET THE HEADLINE GO AS IS GIVEN THE
FACT THAT WINDS OFFSHORE A COUPLE OF MILES ARE LIKELY IN THE 15 TO
20 KNOT RANGE. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY CAUSING
THE FLOW TO BECOME SW. ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LAKE TONIGHT WITH WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT LATER TONIGHT. WINDS
FRIDAY SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 25 KNOTS WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF 30
KNOTS POSSIBLE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE LAKE. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY AND THEN BECOME SW AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE LAKE. SW FLOW WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT CAUSING WINDS TO
AGAIN BECOME NW.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
LEZ142>149.
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...KUBINA
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