019  
FXUS61 KCLE 111448  
AFDCLE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH  
948 AM EST MON DEC 11 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES TONIGHT DRAGGING  
AN ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL  
DEVELOP TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A  
SECOND CLIPPER WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
SNOW TO THE EAST HAS EXITED WITH MAYBE JUST A FLURRY POSSIBLE  
THROUGH MIDDAY. TO THE WEST ACROSS MI LIGHT SNOW HAS BEGUN TO  
FALL. SOME OF THIS WILL MAKE IT INTO TOLEDO DURING THE LATE  
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT NOT LAST VERY LONG AS THIS AREA OF  
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST. HIGHS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES  
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND WILL STICK WITH THE LOWER 30S. WILL BE  
LOOKING CLOSELY AT THE UPCOMING SYSTEM FOR DECISIONS ON HEADLINE  
CHANGES/ADDITIONS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
CONTINUED THE WINTER SNOW WATCH FOR THE INLAND SNOWBELT THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING  
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, CURRENTLY LOCATED ND/MN BORDER, ACROSS THE  
LOWER LAKES TONIGHT FORCING AN ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.  
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST  
AREA TONIGHT, WITH UP TO 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE HIGHER  
ELEVATIONS OF THE SNOWBELT. COULD SEE A LULL LATE TUESDAY  
MORNING, BUT EXPECT SNOW TO INTENSIFY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A  
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKE.  
 
THE SHORT TERM BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MODELS IN GOOD  
AGREEMENT SHOWING LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHERN NY AND ARCTIC AIR  
PLUNGING INTO THE REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM.  
THERE WILL BE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND  
NORTHWEST PA AND IT SHOULD CONTINUE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH THE  
NIGHT. MANY POSITIVES INCLUDING EXTREME INSTABILITY 850MB TO THE  
LAKE (BUFKIT), DEEP MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE DENDRITE GROWTH.  
NEGATIVES INCLUDE A SHORT FETCH AND A QUICK TRANSIT TIME WITH  
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AT 40 KNOTS. EXPECT A MULTIBAND EVENT WITH  
OROGRAPHIC LIFT A SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTING FACTOR. WILL HAVE  
ACCUMS TUESDAY NIGHT ROUGHLY 5 TO 7 INCHES. MODELS PULL MOISTURE  
EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING WEDNESDAY BUT OVERRUNNING  
MOISTURE AHEAD OF NEXT LOW APPROACHING CHICAGO AT 00Z THURSDAY  
WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT  
LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO DECREASE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY  
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE MOVES EAST HOWEVER LAKE EFFECT MAY PICK UP  
AGAIN AS WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY AND MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN  
LATE AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE ROUGHLY 2-4 INCHES FOR THE DAY.  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS  
THE AREA. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SNOWBELT AND CHANCE  
POPS ELSEWHERE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY CHANCE TO SLIGHT  
CHANCE.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY TWO SYSTEM. THE FIRST  
LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES FRIDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE  
GETS INTO THE REGION FOR CHANCE POPS NORTH/NORTHEAST. THE SECOND  
SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES SATURDAY PULLING WARMER  
AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS  
FRIDAY 28 TO 32. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY UPPER 30S TO LOWER  
40S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
A TROUGH OVER LAKE ERIE WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA  
THIS MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE SNOWBELT EAST  
OF CLE. WILL GET A BREAK TOWARD DAYBREAK.  
 
OUTLOOK...-SN LIKELY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AREA WIDE AS  
AS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SWINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LAKE  
EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SNOWBELT EAST OF CLE TUESDAY  
AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ALBERTA CLIPPER IS  
DUE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
WILL ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 4AM BUT WILL ISSUE  
A GALE WATCH FOR TUESDAY 10AM THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING 10PM. LOW  
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE LONG AXIS OF THE  
LAKE MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL SPREAD IN  
BEHIND THE LOW AS 925MB FLOW INCREASES TO 40 TO 45 KNOTS. WITH THE  
COLD ADVECTION WOULD EXPECT AN EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER SO WILL  
TAKE WINDS TO GALES TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY  
EVENING. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES WILL THEN BE REQUIRED THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY EVENING OR SO FOR SLOWLY DIMINISHING NORTHWEST FLOW.  
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT EXPECT WINDS 15 KNOTS OR BELOW.  
FRIDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS BY THE END OF  
THE DAY.  
 

 
   
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ013-014.  
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAZ002-003.  
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR  
LEZ145>149-165>169.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...DJB  
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN  
SHORT TERM...DJB/TK  
LONG TERM...TK  
AVIATION...DJB  
MARINE...TK  
 
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