332  
FXUS61 KCLE 241411  
AFDCLE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH  
1011 AM EDT MON JUL 24 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS  
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY  
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE  
REGION THURSDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA FOR THE  
WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
A FEW SHOWERS STILL MOVING THROUGH OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES  
THIS MORNING. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE  
FAR EAST FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BUT REMOVED ANY MENTION OF  
THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES  
START TO WARM AGAIN ALOFT WITH A CAP DEVELOPING. LOWERED  
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES FOR TODAY MOST AREAS GIVEN THE  
CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...  
A COLD FRONT PUSHING SE THRU THE CWA THIS MORNING WILL PRODUCE SCT  
SHRA/TSRA FOR MAINLY THE NE HALF OF THE CWA. EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT  
PUSHES OFF TO THE SE BY AFTN, A SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN  
INSTABILITY THE REST OF THE DAY SO A THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL HANG  
ON INTO EARLY EVENING UNTIL TEMPS START TO COOL AND STABILIZE THE  
ATMOSPHERE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WILL BE LIGHT WITH MOSTLY PLACES  
SEEING A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER, MOSTLY 75  
TO 80.  
 
AN ISOLATED SHRA OR TWO COULD COME INTO THE SNOWBELT OFF OF LAKE  
ERIE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH, BUT BY TUE  
AFTN THE TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT EAST ENOUGH TO END A LINGERING THREAT  
FOR SHRA FOR THE INLAND AREAS BY EVENING. MUCH OF THE CWA WILL SEE  
MORE SUNSHINE ON TUE BUT TEMPS WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS  
FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE FAR NE TO AROUND 80 SW.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL  
COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO  
RISE AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS IN BRIEFLY. SOME PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS  
WILL BRUSH THE AREA AND SOME CUMULUS MAY POP UP IN THE EASTERN  
COUNTIES BUT WE SHOULD BE CAPPED AND ABLE TO WARM UP NICELY. 850 MB  
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM 16 TO 19C BY THE END OF THE  
DAY. WILL FORECAST HIGHS A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE, GENERALLY IN THE  
LOWER AND MID 80S AND A FEW SPOTS COULD PUSH THE UPPER 80S.  
 
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE FRONT ON THURSDAY, WITH  
MANY OF THE MODELS EXHIBITING A LOOK OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. A WAVE  
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY INDEED DEVELOP ON THE FRONT, ALTHOUGH PROBABLY  
NOT AS DEEP AS PROGGED. A WAVE WILL LIKELY SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE  
FRONT AND WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.  
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY,  
WILL STICK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL,  
ABOUT 80 TO 85.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH THE  
FRONT MAY BE SLOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE MODELS IF THE SURFACE WAVE  
IS WEAKER. THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE FOR A SHALLOW FRONT THIS TIME OF  
YEAR. WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT, CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR PERHAPS  
DRIZZLE ON FRIDAY, PROBABLY JUST IN THE MORNING. TEMPS AND DEW  
POINTS WILL DROP BACK TO MORE COMFORTABLE LEVELS.  
 
MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATE A TRAILING SHORT WAVE, PERHAPS A WEAK  
CLOSED LOW, THAT SLIDES INTO THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT  
LAKES ON SATURDAY. WILL PLAY THE ODDS THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL  
BE DRY AND STABLE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SHOWERS AT BAY. HIGH PRESSURE  
SHOULD BE IN CONTROL BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL  
BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
A COLD FRONT FROM NEAR FDY TO JUST INLAND FROM ERI WILL PUSH SE THRU  
CAK AND YNG THRU THE MORNING WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS  
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT, THEN DIMINISHING BY LATE THIS EVENING.  
THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND YNG UNTIL 14Z. MVFR CIGS SHOULD  
DEVELOP THRU 16Z THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE THE REST OF THE DAY AS DRIER  
LOW LEVEL AIR SPREADS SE ACROSS THE AREA. ERI AND POSSIBLY YNG MAY  
NOT GET ABOVE MVFR CIG HEIGHTS BY THE END OF THE DAY BEFORE CIGS  
START TO LOWER AGAIN AFTER DARK.  
 
THERE WILL BE SCT SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA FOR MAINLY THE NE HALF OF  
THE AREA TODAY WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHRA LINGERING NEAR ERI  
TONIGHT.  
 
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR EXPECTED IN THE EAST TUE MORNING. NON-VFR IN  
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED THU.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE EARLY THIS MORNING  
AND WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO WEST AND SPEEDS WILL PICK UP TO  
THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND THE LAKE WILL GET CHOPPY.  
WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EAST OF THE ISLANDS STARTING  
AT NOON. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE THIS  
EVENING AND WINDS WILL VEER MORE NORTHERLY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL  
PICK UP IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND SMALL  
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY INTO TONIGHT EAST OF THE  
ISLANDS.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY. NORTHEAST  
WINDS WILL PERSIST BUT WIND SPEEDS AND WAVES SHOULD SUBSIDE.  
 
THE HIGH WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND WINDS WILL COME  
AROUND FROM THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP ACROSS THE  
LAKE ON THURSDAY ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY OR AT  
NIGHT FOR WINDS TO SHIFT FROM THE NORTH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY  
CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO  
FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ009>012-  
089.  
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ001.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ144>149.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS  
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KEC  
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK  
LONG TERM...KOSARIK  
AVIATION...ADAMS  
MARINE...KOSARIK  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab OH Page
The Nexlab PA Page Main Text Page