693  
FXUS61 KCLE 241921  
AFDCLE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH  
321 PM EDT MON APR 24 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH  
TONIGHT. THE REGION WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF LOW  
PRESSURE, ONE TO THE WEST AND ONE TO THE EAST, TUESDAY THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY TRACK INTO THE GREAT  
LAKES THURSDAY BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS  
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO  
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE  
FORECAST AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE COMING TO A CONSENSUS ON THE POTENTIAL  
FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TOWARDS THE EARLY/MID MORNING PERIOD ON  
TUESDAY. MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN ACROSS  
NE OH AND NW PA BY THE MORNING HOURS WITH EASTERLY ATLANTIC MOISTURE  
RETURN AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT FOCUSED OVER THE AREA. WILL GO AHEAD  
AND EXPAND AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WESTWARD THROUGH THE AREA  
CENTERED AROUND 12Z, AS CONFIDENCE INCREASING ON AT LEAST THE NEED  
FOR MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES DESPITE FAIRLY DRY NEAR SURFACE LAYER.  
ANY PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD END BY MID DAY TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA  
WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO  
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT OR HIGHS TOMORROW FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REGAIN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT,  
WITH FAIRLY STOUT RETURN FLOW/WAA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.  
THIS WILL YIELD WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE WEDNESDAY INTO  
THURSDAY. KEPT HIGHS NEAR PREVIOUS FORECAST, WITH LOW 80S POSSIBLE  
FOR MOST LOCATION WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 70S WEST/LOW 80S EAST  
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT  
INTO THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE STILL IN  
SOME DISAGREEMENT BUT STARTING TO CONVERGE WITH RESPECT TO THE  
TRACK/TIMING OF THE LOW AND IT'S ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING EAST  
THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE OPTED FOR LIKELY POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON,  
WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST THURSDAY MORNING AND CHANCE POPS EAST  
THURSDAY EVENING.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT BEGINNING FRIDAY  
MORNING SHOWING LOW PRESSURE NORTHERN TEXAS WITH A STATIONARY FRONT  
EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE/LOWER OHIO VALLEY. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
SATURDAY NIGHT THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS  
AS THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST DEEPENS LIFTING HEIGHTS IN  
THE EAST. THIS IN TURN WILL LIFT THE FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA AS A  
WARM FRONT SATURDAY. WITH THE OVERRUNNING PRECIP SHIELD ON THE NORTH  
SIDE OF THE FRONT...A SIGNIFICANT VARIABLE IN THE FORECAST IS HOW  
FAR THE FRONT GETS GETS ON SATURDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT  
THE FRONT BEGINS SATURDAY JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND REACHES FROM TOL TO  
ERI BY SUNDAY MORNING SO HAVE WENT WITH LIKELY POPS MUCH OF THE AREA  
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH TO  
OUR WEST DEEPENS FURTHER MOVING THE LOW NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES  
AND LIFTING THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT CONTINUED  
ACTIVE WEATHER HOWEVER IN THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA  
AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING SYSTEM.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE  
NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AIRMASS  
ACROSS THE REGION IS CURRENTLY DRY HOWEVER THE EAST COAST LOW  
WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH THIS  
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS MOSTLY VFR BUT DID PUT IN MVFR  
CIGS IN A TEMPO THROUGH LATE TONIGHT OR AROUND DAWN MOST AREAS.  
 
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY  
AND THEN WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO  
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MUCH OF THE NEARSHORE AND WILL CONTINUE  
THROUGH 4AM WITH BUOY OFF CLEVELAND SHOWING WAVES 4 TO 5 FEET IN  
EASTERLY FLOW. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE SAME OR INCREASE A FEW  
KNOTS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING LATE TONIGHT.  
EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE VEERING SOUTHEAST  
TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND  
WESTERN LAKES. ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND  
THURSDAY AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKES  
FORCING AND COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE. WINDS WILL TURN  
SOUTHWEST ON THE LAKE AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND  
BRINGING THE LAKE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS. FRIDAY AND  
SATURDAY NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...NONE.  
PA...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>147.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...MOTTICE  
NEAR TERM...GREENAWALT  
SHORT TERM...GREENAWALT  
LONG TERM...TK  
AVIATION...TK  
MARINE...TK  
 
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