585  
FXUS61 KCLE 242220  
AFDCLE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH  
620 PM EDT TUE APR 24 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST TO  
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS  
THE LOCAL AREA EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD  
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE  
A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE 630 UPDATE.  
 
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER TN AND  
KY CONTINUES TO BRING CONSISTENT LIGHT RAIN TO MUCH OF THE  
REGION. RAINFALL RATES ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF  
AN INCH AN HOUR TO AROUND ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH AN  
HOUR...MAINLY SOUTH OF US 30. THE SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN  
PERSISTENT WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING ACROSS THE  
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION AND STEADY RAIN BECOMING MORE  
SHOWERY THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE UPPER LOW IS  
FORECAST TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST WITH RAIN ENDING ACROSS THE AREA  
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE EASTERN HALF OF  
THE REGION...WHERE SHOWERS MAY LINGER A FEW HOURS INTO WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON.  
 
OTHERWISE...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE  
REGION WITH READINGS GENERALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW  
NORMAL FOR THE END OF APRIL.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE  
WILL CONTROL THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY.  
HOWEVER THE MAIN THING TO MONITOR WILL BE THE COLD FRONT THAT  
APPROACHES FRIDAY EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG  
AND AHEAD OF IT. THE RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO  
EAST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS  
IN THE 50S. SLIGHTLY WARMER ON FRIDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM  
LAKE ERIE WARMING INTO THE 60S. COOL IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT ON  
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS DIPPING BACK INTO THE 50S, A FEW 40S ACROSS  
INLAND NW PA.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
THE LAST OF THE SHORT WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP NORTHEAST  
TROUGH ALOFT IS PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES  
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE WAVE IS PRETTY FAR NORTH AND HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED  
TO BEGIN RISING OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SURFACE AND  
WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY  
RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT MAY BE ACROSS NW OH WHILE THE  
NORTH BREEZE MAY STAY UP ELSEWHERE. LOWS IN THE 30S. A LITTLE FAIR  
WEATHER STRATOCUMULUS COULD LINGER NE OH/NW PA ON SUNDAY. HIGHS  
SUNDAY FROM THE UPPER 40S NW PA TO NEAR 60 NW OH.  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY. THE RIDGE  
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD. ASIDE FROM A FEW PATCHES OF CIRRUS,  
MONDAY WILL BE SUNNY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE BY  
TUESDAY ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ALL THAT HIGH. SOME  
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.  
 
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD WARM AS MUCH AS THE MIXING  
AND SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW. FORECAST HIGHS MONDAY MOSTLY 65 TO 70,  
HIGHS TUESDAY WELL IN THE 70S. THE WIND WILL LIKELY COME ONSHORE,  
ESPECIALLY EAST OF CLEVELAND ON MONDAY AND PERHAPS TUESDAY, SO A  
LITTLE COOLER THERE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS  
INVERTED TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT  
LAKES. IFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS ENTIRE FORECAST AREA  
OVERNIGHT.  
 
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR WEDNESDAY INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS  
EASTWARD. EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AS AN  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION.  
WINDS MAY REACH 15 KNOTS WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH TO GET WAVES TO 4  
FEET FOR A FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. IT LOOKS  
TO BE BRIEF SO WILL LET THE NEXT COUPLE SHIFTS TAKE A LOOK AT IT.  
THE WEATHER THEN LOOKS QUIET THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT  
WINDS. THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE  
LAKE ON FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY  
NIGHT.  
 

 
   
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...NONE.  
PA...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...RILEY  
NEAR TERM...DJB/RILEY  
SHORT TERM...MULLEN  
LONG TERM...KOSARIK  
AVIATION...DJB  
MARINE...MULLEN  
 
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