607
FXUS61 KCLE 091149
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
649 AM EST MON NOV 9 2009
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EXTENDED
BACK INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. IT WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...LINGERING OVER THE REGION INTO
FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND EXTENDING BACK
INTO THE AREA. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEM
AFFECTING THE AREAS WEATHER TODAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM AIR
WILL CONTINUE...PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S OR LOWER
70S WELL ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHS THAT ARE IN THE LOWER 50S. THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY WEST WHICH WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST A LITTLE FROM YESTERDAY'S
HIGHS. RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY ARE ABOUT A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER
THAN YESTERDAY'S RECORDS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. MFD AND YNG HAVE
RECORDS OF 72 FOR TODAY AND HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR BEING BROKEN
BUT MAY FALL JUST SHORT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MAY GET
HUNG UP JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND ALSO ON
TUESDAY. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON TUESDAY WITH THE CLOUDY SKIES
AND A NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN
THE MID 50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA...STILL A LITTLE ABOVE THE
NORMAL HIGHS. UNDERCUT THE GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE FOR
TUESDAY OVER MOST OF THE AREA...I DIDN'T THINK IT QUITE CAPTURED
THE SHALLOW COOLER AIR THAT SHOULD BE IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN START TO BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
AND SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
AS IT MOVES EAST BUT THE RIDGE REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
NEW 00Z GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE SLOWING DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER PATTERN. FRIDAY WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIP MENTION FOR
SATURDAY AS THE HIGH WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT. IF NEW ECMWF IS TO
BE BELIEVED...EVEN SUNDAY COULD END UP BEING DRY. LATEST GFS STILL
BRINGS FRONTAL SYSTEM IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ALREADY HAVE
PRECIP IN THE FORECAST AND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL LEAVE MENTION IN
FOR NOW. TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE NEW TAF PACKAGE. COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK
TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. IN THE MEANTIME...HIGH
AND MIDDLE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ACROSS THE AREA. S TO
SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS WELL. NEW MODELS COMING IN KEEP THE AREA
DRY TONIGHT. WILL GIVE KTOL A SLIGHT MENTION OF SHRA BUT
OTHERWISE ALL AREAS WILL BE DRY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT.
SIMILAR TO 06Z PACKAGE HAVE GIVEN ALL SITES A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS TONIGHT. LIGHT N TO NE FLOW EXPECTED THE FRONT.
OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
THE WEATHER ON LAKE ERIE WILL BE UNUSUALLY QUIET FOR NOVEMBER. S TO
SW FLOW GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE THIS
EVENING. NOT MUCH OF A PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT SO WINDS
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. EXPECT THE FLOW TO BECOME NE ON
TUESDAY. THE NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS JUST TO THE NW OF THE LAKE. WAVES IN THE
NEARSHORE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. THE FLOW WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME SE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE FINALLY
SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RANDEL
NEAR TERM...RANDEL
SHORT TERM...RANDEL
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA
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