272  
FXUS61 KCLE 271310  
AFDCLE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH  
910 AM EDT MON MAR 27 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
THE NEXT LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OH TONIGHT. HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA WILL BE IN CONTROL TUESDAY  
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A NEXT LOW IN THE SERIES WILL MOVE ACROSS  
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
THE REMAINING SCT SHRA AROUND THE SNOWBELT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF  
TO THE EAST INTO MIDDAY THEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE  
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL RAIN FROM THE NEXT LOW TRIES TO PUSH  
INTO THE SW BY THE END OF THE DAY.  
 
THERE MAY BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. SW WINDS WILL GET  
PULLED MORE TO THE WEST WHICH WILL PROBABLY BRING SOME COOLER AIR  
OFF OF LAKE ERIE INTO THE ERIE PA AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF THE RAINFALL FOR  
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BUT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE BRINGS RAINFALL  
ACROSS MOST OF OH TONIGHT AND BRINGS IT ACROSS THE REST OF THE  
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THUNDER A POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY ACROSS  
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTIES. WITH THE SURFACE LOW PASSING  
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN OH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WINDS WILL  
SHIFT TO THE NORTH. UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXITS TUESDAY MORNING AND  
MOST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO DRY OUT. BY TUESDAY NIGHT HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDS  
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BRINGING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR  
WEDNESDAY AND REINFORCING THE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF OF THE COOL  
LAKE. FOR WEDNESDAY EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MID 40S NEAR THE LAKE  
TO THE LOWER 50S WELL INLAND...THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK. WE  
TURN THE WEATHER OVER TO THE NEXT LOW MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY FOR THE  
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. FOR THURSDAY WITH AN APPROACHING WARM  
FRONT, SHOWER CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. WINDS WILL LIKELY  
REMAIN EAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKESHORE WHICH WILL  
KEEP THE TOLEDO AREA COOLER FOR YET ANOTHER DAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS FROM THE  
SOUTHWESTERN STATES THAT WEAKEN AS THEY TRACK TO THE GREAT LAKES.  
 
THE NEXT SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.  
THERE IS NO AGREEMENT ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW SO WHILE THERE  
IS GOOD CONFIDENCE FOR THE THREAT OF SHOWERS THERE IS LESS  
CONFIDENCE ON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE ON  
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND THERE IS PROBABLY MORE UPSIDE THAN  
DOWNSIDE IF WE ARE IN THE WARM SECTOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL MENTION  
THUNDER IN THE COUNTIES FROM AROUND MANSFIELD AND AKRON SOUTH.  
 
SHOWERS COULD LINGER FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY  
NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA. FORECAST TEMPERATURES A LITTLE LOWER  
THAN GUIDANCE ON SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE ERIE AND IN THE  
SNOWBELT WITH A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW.  
 
THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE STRUGGLING IN DIFFERENTIATING A NORTHERN  
BRANCH SHORT WAVE ON SUNDAY AND THE NEXT UPPER LOW EJECTING FROM THE  
SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THERE WILL LIKELY BE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR  
AT THE SURFACE AND WOULD JUST AS WELL KEEP SUNDAY RAINFREE FOR NOW.  
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE NEAR NORMAL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
WEAK FRONT HAS ESSENTIALLY WASHED OUT BUT A RELATIVELY MOIST  
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS AND MVFR CEILINGS AND A FEW  
PATCHES OF IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS  
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING INCREASES AND  
CEILINGS RISE. MORE RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA  
TONIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS  
TOWARD NORTHERN OHIO.  
 
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR TUESDAY. NON-VFR DEVELOPING AGAIN ON THURSDAY  
AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
A WEAKENING FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING. SOUTH  
WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON EASTERN LAKE ERIE WHILE SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD  
INCREASE FOR A FEW HOURS ON WESTERN LAKE ERIE. WINDS AND WAVES  
SHOULD STAY COMFORTABLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.  
 
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY AND WINDS WILL  
COME AROUND FROM THE EAST BACKING NORTHEAST AND NORTH. THE FORECAST  
FOR WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR  
TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY  
OR MORE LIKELY THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN  
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS  
THE PLAINS STATES.  
 

 
   
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...NONE.  
PA...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN  
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN/ADAMS  
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN  
LONG TERM...KOSARIK  
AVIATION...KOSARIK  
MARINE...KOSARIK  
 
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