087  
FXUS61 KCLE 291949  
AFDCLE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH  
349 PM EDT MON MAY 29 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE  
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY BEFORE A WEAK TROUGH  
SWINGS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO  
WEDNESDAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE  
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP MAINLY EAST OF THE I-71  
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. WENT AHEAD AND UPPED POPS TO MID CHANCE FOR  
A FEW HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE  
POSSIBLE, WITH AROUND 500 J/KG OF SBCAPE ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD  
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HI-RES GUIDANCE  
CONTINUES TO INDICATE WIDELY SCATTERED PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT,  
SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH SLIGHT CHANCE  
TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN GENERAL. SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE  
EVENING BUT ANY THUNDER CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE  
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY  
AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS THROUGH THE AREA. ANOTHER WEAK  
TROUGH PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT PROMPTS SOME SLIGHT  
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES FROM  
PREVIOUS FORECAST.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON  
WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED. HIGH  
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER  
CONDITIONS RETURNING. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY  
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AS THE NEXT  
WAVE APPROACHES IN THE NW FLOW.  
 
 
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES  
BUT ALL LOCATIONS RETURN TO AVERAGE LEVELS FOR THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST  
ON FRIDAY AS YET ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL  
TROUGH. THESE STORMS COULD BE A BIT STRONGER BUT THAT IS  
SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COLD FRONT SHOULD BE  
MOVING INTO CENTRAL OHIO ON SATURDAY WITH ANY  
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE  
AREA SO CHANGES MAY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS. HIGH  
PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY  
WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL AVERAGES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED DIURNAL CU  
EXPECTED ACROSS KCAK, KYNG AND KERI, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A  
STRAY SHRA BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z, BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO  
MENTION IN A TAF. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT,  
WITH VCSH MENTION FOR THE TAF SITES. BACKED OFF OF VCTS DUE TO  
LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE/TIMING, LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIMITED  
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE  
SOUTHWEST TODAY, MAYBE A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS TO 20 KTS FOR A  
BRIEF TIME.  
 
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR AT TIMES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH WAVES RUNNING IN  
THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY  
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BUT WE SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY LARGER WAVES ON  
THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE. AS A WEAK TROUGH/FRONT CROSSES THE  
LAKE ON WEDNESDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST. THIS  
MAY BUILD WAVES TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS WEDNESDAY  
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS DECREASE FOR THURSDAY AS HIGH  
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO.  
 

 
   
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...NONE.  
PA...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...GREENAWALT  
NEAR TERM...GREENAWALT  
SHORT TERM...MULLEN  
LONG TERM...MULLEN  
AVIATION...GREENAWALT  
MARINE...GREENAWALT/MULLEN  
 
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