854  
FXUS61 KCLE 201722  
AFDCLE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH  
122 PM EDT WED SEP 20 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FILL AND SLIDE SE AS HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN  
ANCHORED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
MINOR CHANGES TO THE POPS THIS AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES  
WERE MADE.  
 
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...  
WEAK UPPER LOW WILL KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AWAY  
FROM THE LAKE. CAPES RISE TO AROUND 1200 J/KG, BUT LITTLE SHEAR OR  
OTHER LIFTING MECHANISMS. WITH SO LITTLE DYNAMICS JUST KEPT LOW  
CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NE OH THIS AFTERNOON.  
DIFFUSE BOUNDARY NW OH WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FILL AND SLIDE SE TONIGHT AS UPPER  
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. EXPECT MORE SUN TOMORROW WITH TEMPS INTO  
THE LOWER TO MID 80S AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN.  
 
SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE TO END THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE  
STRENGTHENS ALOFT, EXTENDING WELL NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE  
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE EASTERN  
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN OVERHEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE  
AIRMASS DRIES DURING THIS TIME WITH A LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW.  
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE  
SEPTEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
THE WARM PATTERN CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL  
RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD TO NEW ENGLAND. THE TROUGH OVER  
THE WESTERN US SLOWLY APPROACHES BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BREAK DOWN  
THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES UNTIL THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.  
WILL CONTINUE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS  
THROUGH THE EXTENDED.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS  
NORTHEAST OHIO. EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF MVFR  
POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWER/STORM. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM  
TONIGHT ONWARD. WILL SEE FOG DEVELOP AFTER 06-08Z TONIGHT,  
MAINLY INLAND. FOG COULD BECOME DENSE IN SPOTS WITH LIFR  
CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY AT KTOL. FOG WILL DISSIPATE AFTER  
14-16Z TOMORROW WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.  
 
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN FOG THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY  
MORNINGS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
GENERALLY GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON LAKE ERIE  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY WITH LAKE BREEZES  
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER QUEBEC  
ON THURSDAY THEN EXPAND ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES OVER THE  
WEEKEND. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL CONTINUE  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...NONE.  
PA...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...DJB  
NEAR TERM...DJB/MOTTICE  
SHORT TERM...DJB/KEC  
LONG TERM...KEC  
AVIATION...MOTTICE  
MARINE...KEC  
 
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