843
FXUS61 KCLE 260740
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
340 AM EDT FRI APR 26 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY
AND THEN MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK THIS MORNING IS
STILL IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN THIS MORNING. WE ARE
STARTING OFF THIS MORNING WITH FROSTY CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR
SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE. WE WILL ALLOW THE ONGOING FROST AND FREEZE
HEADLINES TO RUN THROUGH 9 AM THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY TONIGHT. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY WITH A RETURN
OF MILDER WEATHER COMING BACK INTO THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SKIES
WILL START OUT CLEAR THIS MORNING BUT HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE UPSWING TODAY CLIMBING INTO THE
MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THAT ADVANCING WARM FRONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
NO ORGANIZED OR SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BUT A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER COULD BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.
AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING,
THE TEMPERATURES WILL REALLY WARM UP BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
AREA WILL BE IN A DEEP SOUTHERLY AND HUMID LOW LEVEL FLOW. SKIES
WILL START OUR MOSTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY MORNING BUT BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS NWOH. LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NEOH AND UPPER 60S FOR NWPA.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
THERE WILL BE SOME LOW CONFIDENCE RAIN CHANCES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA WILL PRESENT SOME
OPPORTUNITY TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION. WITH A STRONG RIDGE
EMERGING INTO THE REGION, BELIEVE THAT THE TREND WITH THE FIRST PART
OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY. WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION WILL
BE EFFICIENT FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. SOME OF THE
RECORD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S AND COULD BE REACHED. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS ON MONDAY AND TRY TO SHIFT THE
UPPER RIDGE EAST, ALLOWING THE NEXT SYSTEM TO REACH THE AREA. WHILE
SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ALLOWING PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY, THE PATTERN WILL LIKELY BE
SLOWER TO DEVELOP WITH THE RIDGE STRENGTH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
AND HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS REFLECTED FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY STANDARD FOR THE END OF APRIL
INTO EARLY MAY WITH TEMPERATURES A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S AND
INTERMITTENT RAIN CHANCES WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
EARLY ON TUESDAY AS THE FIRST MAIN TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE
A TOUCH COOLER THAN THE WEEKEND. WEDNESDAY COULD END UP BEING A
DRIER DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME RIDGING ALOFT BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE
ENTERS FOR THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THERE ARE CONFIDENCE CONCERNS ON THE
TIMING OF THE PATTERN, SO HAVE SOME LOW POPS AT A MINIMUM DAILY.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THROUGH THE
END OF THIS TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL IN CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER PATTERN TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TODAY.
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION BUT REMAIN VFR.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE EAST 5 THIS MORNING AND INCREASE TO
5 TO 10 KNOTS DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
SOUTHEAST AROUND 8 TO 12 KNOTS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. ERI MAY HOLD ON TO EASTERLY OR EVEN NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
A LITTLE LONGER TODAY DUE TO SOME EFFECTS FROM LAKE ERIE. THERE
COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FOR ERI TODAY.
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT ERI
AROUND 12 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 25
KNOTS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR MAY RETURN IN PERIODIC SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE WILL PROMOTE EASTERLY WINDS
TODAY. WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST OVER THE WEST END OF THE LAKE
WITH THE LONG FETCH OF THE LAKE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE.
STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL OVERTAKE THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS COULD NECESSITATE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINE. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND AND WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND DECREASE THROUGH
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LAKE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY AGAIN. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BE
A BIT MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ003-006>014-
017>023-027>033-036>038-047.
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ002-003.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GRIFFIN
NEAR TERM...GRIFFIN
SHORT TERM...SEFCOVIC
LONG TERM...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...GRIFFIN
MARINE...SEFCOVIC
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