477  
FXUS61 KCLE 190448  
AFDCLE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH  
1248 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND BECOME  
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO AND SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA.  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES  
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT  
LAKES BY SATURDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
 
 
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN END OF THE AREA.  
HAVE HAD A COUPLE REPORTS FROM ERIE CO PA OF CLOSE TO 2 INCHES  
OF RAIN SO FAR. WITH MORE ON THE WAY WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE AN  
ADVISORY. NEW GUIDANCE COMING IN IS SHOWING THAT THE PRECIP  
SHOULD HAVE A HARD TIME REACHING THE SOUTHERN END OF THE AREA  
OVERNIGHT. HAVE TRIMMED CHANCES BACK IN THE FAR SOUTH BUT HAVE  
KEPT SCATTERED WORDING GOING FURTHER NORTH. LOT'S OF OUTFLOW  
BOUNDARIES ARE FLOATING AROUND SO IT IS TOUGH TO TELL WHERE NEW  
DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR. HAVE NUDGED TEMPS UP ACROSS NW PA AS DEW  
POINTS SHOULD BE SLOWER TO FALL THAN FORECAST.  
 
PREVIOUS...A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE  
AREA TONIGHT. SOME CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND DISSIPATE  
ALONG A LINE ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.  
ANOTHER LINE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTH OF LAKE ERIE THAT  
WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW IN FORWARD MOTION TONIGHT AND  
KEEP A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOCAL AREA.  
AS HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO THE GREAT  
LAKES REGION, THE FRONT WILL PUSH FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE  
SOUTHERN PARTS OF OHIO AND PENNSYLVANIA. CAPE VALUES WILL  
SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR THUNDER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT BUT  
WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH TIME. WINDS HAVE BEEN A  
BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BUT WILL  
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE STATIONARY FRONT  
WILL BEGIN TO WAFFLE NORTH AND SOUTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO  
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THIS FORECAST  
PERIOD. HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WITH RELATIVELY MOIST  
SOUNDINGS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE  
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NOT REAL IMPRESSIVE BUT  
THEY ARE RUNNING AROUND 1.5" TO 1.7" ACROSS THE AREA.  
 
AS COOLER AIR PUSHES SOUTH WITH THE COLD FRONT, EXPECTING  
TEMPERATURES TO BE MUCH COOLER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS COOL  
AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE FROM THE NORTH.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY,  
GRADUALLY CLEARING STARTING IN THE NORTH. THE HIGH HUMIDITY IN THE  
AIRMASS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SCOUR OUT, WITH PW VALUES STARTING  
AROUND 1.9" AND THEN FALLING TO 1.5" BY EVENING. CONCERNED FOR SLOW  
MOVING STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN DURING THE DAY, AND WPC HAS THE AREA  
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN. THIS THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST  
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THUNDER CHANCES LOOK  
LOW WITH LIMITED INSTABLILTY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN  
OVER THE UPPER LAKES REINFORCING THE NORTHEAST FLOW AND COOLER/DRIER  
AIR INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THURSDAY WE  
SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN OHIO/NW  
PENNSYLVANIA. MODELS ARE FAVORING HIGHS IN THE 70S AS THICKNESSES  
SHOW A NOTABLE DROP WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER, THIS BEING  
THE LONGEST DAY OF THE YEAR BELIEVE WE SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S  
GIVEN PLENTIFUL SUN.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
THE LONG TERM FORECAST BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH ALL OF THE EXTENDED  
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID-  
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THIS SYSTEM  
WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY BUT NOT WORTH OF  
LIKELY POPS UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE  
NORTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND EXTEND A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL  
THEN BE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION BEGINNING SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION, AS A BUFFER BETWEEN THE DEPARTING  
LOW AND A NEW LOW OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY. SOME RESIDUAL RAIN COULD  
IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY BUT THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY  
FROM SUNDAY EVENING ONWARD UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE  
AREA. TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLE AT THIS POINT IN TIME WITH  
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE ERIE LAKESHORE WILL PUSH SOUTH  
OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE  
TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. HAVE HAD WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS WITH  
STRONGER CELLS. HEAVY RAINERS...RAIN FALL RATES OF CELLS WEST  
OF CLE AT 2+ INCHES PER HOUR. BEHIND FRONT MVFR STRATUS DECK  
WITH AREAS OF IFR. STILL DOUBTS AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY  
WILL PUSH BY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES COULD SEE  
SOME CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY  
INTO SATURDAY IN -TSRA.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
HAVE HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THIS EVENING AS DOWNSLOPING  
WINDS OFF OF NW PA PRODUCING MARGINAL CONDITIONS. THE 20KT WINDS  
SHOULD WANE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO  
SUBSIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH OF THE LAKE TONIGHT WITH  
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15KT ON TUESDAY. THE FETCH COULD SUPPORT SOME  
3 FOOTERS IN THE CENTRAL BASIN. WINDS WILL RELAX ON WEDNESDAY AS A  
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. ON THURSDAY HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER LAKES WILL STRENGTHEN THE GRADIENT  
OVER THE AREA. NORTHEAST WINDS COULD REACH 20 KNOTS AND WAVES 3 TO 4  
FEET ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN.  
 

 
   
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...NONE.  
PA...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY  
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/LOMBARDY  
SHORT TERM...JAMISON  
LONG TERM...SEFCOVIC  
AVIATION...DJB  
MARINE...JAMISON  
 
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