343  
FXUS61 KCLE 231458  
AFDCLE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH  
958 AM EST FRI FEB 23 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT  
LAKES TODAY. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE  
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT BY SATURDAY  
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LOCAL  
AREA AND THEN BECOME A WARM FRONT AS YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY  
AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY.  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY AND  
MONDAY NIGHT AND TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT. A WARM  
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
WITH THIS MID MORNING UPDATE LOWERED EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES  
FOR TODAY BY A FEW DEGREES. THICK OVERCAST AND A COOL START TO  
THE MORNING WILL MAKE IT HARD TO GET A GOOD RISE IN TEMPERATURES  
UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. ALSO LOWERED QPF FOR TODAY. RADAR  
MOSAIC NOT SHOWING VERY WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EXPECTING MOST OF  
THE RAIN TO BE EXITING BY 18Z.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...  
 
YET ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA TODAY AS LOW  
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES  
HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING SO  
THERE IS NO THREAT FOR ANY FREEZING PRECIPITATION. RAINFALL  
EXPECTED TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 0.40" AND 0.60" ACROSS THE  
SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES AND 0.10" TO 0.20" IN THE NORTH. A LOOK AT 3  
HOUR FLOOD GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE  
THE RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT  
THIS TIME.  
 
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PULL OUT TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH  
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE LOCAL AREA. THIS SHOULD BRING A  
ROUND OF FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. ANOTHER LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT  
LAKES AND THIS FEATURE WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE AREA AND WARM AIR  
ADVECTION. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER STORM TOTAL QPF WITH  
THIS STORM SYSTEM AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 0.70" IS EXPECTED IN  
THE NORTH WITH UP TO 1.25" IN THE SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS IT HAS  
A MUCH BETTER CHANCE TO CAUSE FLOODING AS SOIL BECOMES FURTHER  
SATURATED LOWERING 3 HOUR FLOOD GUIDANCE. FORECAST AREA MAY NEED A  
FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS SYSTEM.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE  
FORECAST AREA AS PERIODS OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AFFECT THE LOCAL  
AREA; ESPECIALLY TODAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED  
FOR SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES  
WITH COOL AIR ADVECTION.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL OHIO  
SATURDAY NIGHT AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT  
LAKES. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THE POTENTIAL  
FOR FLOODING RAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE RAIN WILL  
END FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY BUT WE WILL LIKELY BE DEALING WITH  
FLOODED RIVERS INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCES  
FOR FLOODING APPEAR TO BE NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FINDLAY TO  
MEADVILLE WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FLOOD  
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY  
MORNING AND MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY OR SATURDAY MORNING.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE CONTROL OF THE REGION LATE SUNDAY  
NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE REGION  
TO BEGIN DRYING OUT.  
 
SUNDAY WILL BE A BREEZY WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.  
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON MONDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL  
AVERAGES. HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD REACH THE MID 40S TO AROUND  
50.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY.  
THIS WILL ALLOW THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE TOWARD THE  
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN DECENT  
AGREEMENT WITH SOME RAIN CHANCES RETURNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND  
THEN GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO THURSDAY.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. HIGHS  
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. SLIGHTLY  
COOLER WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN POTENTIAL ON  
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 50.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
WIDESPREAD IFR AND OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL  
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS AN AREA OF RAIN MOVES NORTHEAST  
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE  
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LOW PRESSURE FORCES THE STATIONARY FRONT  
TO SHIFT NORTH. EXPECTING RAIN TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST  
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY  
AFTERNOON. LINGERING IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT.  
VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY WITH THE ENDING RAIN BUT WILL  
LIKELY SETTLE BACK INTO IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE  
AROUND 10 KNOTS MOST OF THE AREA BUT INCREASING TO 15 TO 25  
KNOTS AT ERIE.  
 
OUTLOOK...VFR.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THIS  
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY BY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS  
ONTARIO WHICH WILL KEEP A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH NEAR THE OHIO RIVER  
VALLEY FOR TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEEPEN AS IT MOVES FROM  
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.  
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO AT LEAST 15 TO 20  
KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AS  
A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE LAKE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND  
THEN SOUTHWEST. THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY  
IN THE WAKE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT WINDS TO REACH  
AT LEAST 30 KNOTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT LOW END  
GALES. WINDS REMAIN SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BUT WILL  
GRADUALLY DECREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES ITS INFLUENCE.  
 

 
   
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...NONE.  
PA...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY  
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY/OUDEMAN  
SHORT TERM...MULLEN  
LONG TERM...MULLEN  
AVIATION...LOMBARDY  
MARINE...MULLEN  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab OH Page
The Nexlab PA Page Main Text Page