225
FXUS61 KPBZ 091422
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
922 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2010
SYNOPSIS
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWS. GUSTY WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
LAKE AFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT FOR PRECIPITATION TIMING APPEARS
TO BE WORKING WELL. SNOW BEGAN IN OHIO COUNTIES AROUND 7AM...AND
SNOW IS ALREADY BEING REPORTED IN PRESTON COUNTY WV AS WELL.
CURRENT TIMING BRINGS PRECIPITATION INTO THE PITTSBURGH METRO AREA
AROUND NOON...AND ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHWEST PA DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE PROFILES STILL SHOW THAT THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR A PERIOD OF PATCHY FREEZING RAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FAR SOUTH IN SOUTHEAST OH AND NORTHERN WV.
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING RUSH WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED BY
ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS CWA...AS VIS ON CURRENT LEADING EDGE
DROPS QUICKLY TO AROUND A MILE...AND THE LOW IS DEEPENING.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW CONTINUING. THE LOW REDEVELOPS OVER THE EAST
COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST A
FAIRLY SHARP PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP...PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF
AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH. THIS COMBINATION OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS AND
GUSTY WINDS COULD MAKE TRAVEL QUITE DIFFICULT WEDNESDAY...AND
POSSIBLY PRODUCE TREE AND POWER LINE DAMAGE.
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...EVEN AS THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES FURTHER AWAY. LATER
FORECAST CYCLES WILL ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTENDING HEADLINES
NORTH AND OVER THE RIDGES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMS. LAKE SNOWS
AND WIND GUSTS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. MAV/MET NUMBERS FOR TEMPS...FAIRLY
SIMILAR...AND DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM THEIR AVERAGE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
BLEND OF RECENT GEFS MODEL OUTPUT AND HPC GUIDANCE SHOW A COLD
UPPER LOW CENTER BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE
GREAT LAKES THIS PERIOD. SO CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COLD AND MAINLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS PERIOD AS INDICATED BY
RECENT GFS MOS VALUES AND HPC GUIDANCE.
WITH THIS TYPE OF CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF SMALL SYSTEMS BEGIN TO ROTATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY...AS THE GEFS MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS ONE SUCH SYSTEM
DOING THAT NEXT MONDAY. HOWEVER TIMING SUCH SYSTEMS THIS FAR IN
ADVANCE IS ALWAYS AN ISSUE...SO AFTER COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORING
FORECAST OFFICES...HAVE INCLUDED ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...AND A GENERAL CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
MONDAY.
AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MVFR STRATOCUMULUS IS DISSIPATING ACROSS PORTS FKL/DUJ...AS MID DECK
CLOUDS BEGIN TO WORK IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT WINTER STORM. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY WORSEN AS THE WINTER STORM MOVES INTO THE
REGION...WITH PRECIP/MVFR ARRIVING AT ZZV BY 12Z OR SO...PIT BY
14-15Z...AND ACROSS NORTHERN PORTS 16-17Z. SNOW WILL INCREASE IN
INTENSITY...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR IN MODERATE SNOW BY LATE MORNING
ZZV...AND IN THE AFTN ACROSS THE OTHER PORTS. THERE IS SOME
POSSIBILITY OF THE PRECIP MIXING WITH OR BRIEFLY CHANGING TO
FREEZING RAIN AT MGW...BUT PROBABILITY IS RATHER LOW...SO WILL KEEP
FZRA OUT OF THE MGW TERMINAL FOR NOW. IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE WEDNESDAY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR. LIGHT E/NE
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST 6-10 KT THIS AFTN.
WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
SYSTEM...WITH NW WINDS 15-20 KT AND GUSTS TO 30-35 KT POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING...CAUSING ADDITIONAL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.
POST SYSTEM NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. PRECIP WILL END FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT AREAS OF MVFR STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY PERSIST WITH
COLD AIR FLOWING OVER THE LAKES.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ031.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-020>023-029-030-032.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
012-021>023-041.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page