434  
FXUS61 KPBZ 232012  
AFDPBZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA  
312 PM EST FRI FEB 23 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. CONDITIONS  
SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH RAIN  
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, THE BULK OF RAINFALL OCCURRED THIS  
MORNING WITH SPATIAL COVERAGE DROPPING OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON  
HOURS. MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY THAT IS OUT THERE REMAINS ACROSS  
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE FOR AN  
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON,  
ALTHOUGH OVERALL COVERAGE OF PRECIP WILL BE LACKING. COVERAGE OF  
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AROUND DAYBREAK, WITH MORE INTENSE  
SHOWERS REMAINING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES  
WILL REMAIN MILD, REMAINING IN THE 40S AND 50S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
THE MOST INTENSE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT,  
WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE AN INCH OF RAIN  
OVERNIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH HEAVY RAIN MENTION ACROSS THE  
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE COLD  
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY, BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY  
WINDS BUT ALSO BRINGING AN END TO THE RAINFALL. THE WEATHER WILL  
BE DRY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE  
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT,  
WITH HIGHS DROPPING FROM THE 60S ON SUNDAY TO THE 50S ON MONDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN DRY, BUT MODELS  
BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR TREATMENT OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM BY  
WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT  
STORM SYSTEM, WITH THE 12Z GFS REMAINING MORE PROGRESSIVE. UNTIL  
MODELS SHOW A BIT MORE CONSISTENCY, HAVEN'T MADE MUCH IN THE WAY  
OF CHANGES TO CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT  
ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL FRIDAY, WHEN THEY SHOULD RETURN TO NORMAL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
MVFR AND IFR RESTRICTIONS WILL PERSIST AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE  
REMAINS IN PLACE. SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER AS THE WARM FRONT  
CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTH OVER THE REGION IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY  
IT'S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. LLWS POTENTIAL DIMINISHES THIS  
EVENING.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS ANOTHER SYSTEM IMPACTS  
THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
NUMEROUS FORECAST POINTS ARE ALREADY AT ACTION STAGES ACROSS THE  
REGION. PITTSBURGH IS CURRENTLY OVER 20 FEET.  
 
2 SUCCESSIVE DISTURBANCES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL DROP  
RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 1.00 TO 3.00 INCHES ACROSS THE  
REGION.  
 
RIVER FLOOD WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED ACROSS THE REGION.  
WITH QPF, WE EXPECT RIVER FLOODING TO BE WIDESPREAD BY SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR MDZ001.  
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-  
057>059-068-069.  
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-  
020>023-029-031-073>076.  
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR WVZ001>004-012-021-  
509>514.  
 

 
 

 
 
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