886
FXUS61 KPBZ 151018
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
518 AM EST MON DEC 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THIS MORNING ALONG WITH
COLD TEMPERATURES. WARM UP MID-WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES ON
THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- LAKE-EFFECT SNOW BANDS EXPECTED TO END MONDAY MORNING
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 9AM
- COLD TEMPERATURES STICK AROUND THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING
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LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE DISSIPATING THIS MORNING WITH THE
WIND GRADUALLY VEERING MORE WESTERLY AND MOISTURE FEED FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WEAKENS. THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
UNTIL MID-MORNING, WITH WIND CHILL VALUES RANGING FROM -10F TO -20F.
THE COLDEST LOCATIONS ARE AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3.5KFT IN EASTERN
TUCKER COUNTY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATE MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
ONSET OF WARM ADVECTION FROM THE WEST, HOWEVER, THE HIGH WILL STILL
BE ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THROUGH THE MORNING, SKIES WILL
REMAIN OVERCAST. BY THE AFTERNOON, CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN THE
THIN AND BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY LATE TONIGHT.
THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN COLD OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY TUESDAY
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.
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UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY, WITH RISING
HEIGHTS HELPING HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY.
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, A LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
QUEBEC THAT WILL SWING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH. THIS COULD BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOW 40S (NEAR AVERAGE).
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY.
- QUICK COLD-SHOT ON FRIDAY.
- RAIN POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
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ON THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR RAIN BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSH A WARM
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD END THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH THE CROSSING COLD FRONT. DROPPING TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL PROMPT A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN/SNOW AND EVENTUALLY LIGHT SNOW
FRIDAY MORNING.
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES ON FRIDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
TROUGH STRENGTH. AT THIS TIME, A WEAKER TROUGH IS MORE LIKELY,
LEADING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER LAKE EFFECT CHANCES. ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION ON FRIDAY WOULD MOSTLY BE LIMITED TO AREAS NORTH
OF PITTSBURGH AND IN THE RIDGES.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, ENSEMBLES INDICATE A RELAXATION IN THE
PATTERN WITH WEAK LONGWAVE TROUGHS/RIDGES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW.
THERE IS LIKELY TO BE WEAK LONGWAVE TROUGHS/RIDGES AND QUICK-HITTING
SHORTWAVES. THIS PATTERN GENERALLY FAVORS NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE THROUGH CHRISTMAS.
AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR FKL/DUJ WITH LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
- SKIES BEGIN TO SCATTER ON BY THIS AFTERNOON
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LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL SOUTH OF FKL/DUJ, WHILE SCATTERED
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE. WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE SNOW DEVELOPMENT BY
MORNING AS WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY. DRY ADVECTION AND MIXING
BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT CLOUDS DURING THE DAY WITH ALL PORTS VFR
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN DURING
THE DAY WITH INCREASED MIXING WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20KTS
EXPECTED AT MOST PORTS.
OUTLOOK... GENERAL VFR SHOULD LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN. RESTRICTIONS LOOK TO RETURN LATER
THURSDAY WITH AN APPROACHING LOW. MILD TEMPERATURES LEAN TOWARDS
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ007-008.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ009-
015-016.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ074-
076-078.
OH...NONE.
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ510>514.
SYNOPSIS...LUPO
NEAR TERM...LUPO
SHORT TERM...LUPO
LONG TERM...RACKLEY/LUPO
AVIATION...88
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