069  
FXUS61 KPBZ 222332  
AFDPBZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA  
632 PM EST WED NOV 22 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
DRY WEATHER CAN THEN BE EXPECTED UNTIL THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT  
FRONT ON SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
CURRENT REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER  
ACROSS THE AREA, ALTHOUGH SOME CRACKS ARE STARTING TO FORM. THIS  
REMNANT MOISTURE LEFT IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHT'S COLD FRONT  
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO ERODE. THE FORECAST WILL HOLD CLOUDS  
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING UNTIL LOW- LEVEL FLOW CAN SUFFICIENTLY  
BACK AND BRING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL  
LIKELY HOLD STEADY THROUGH EARLY EVENING, BEFORE BEGINNING THEIR  
MARCH DOWNWARD.  
 
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, APPRECIABLE CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO BE  
RATHER SLOW TONIGHT. THIS, AND DEWPOINT VALUES CURRENTLY JUST A  
FEW DEGREES AWAY FROM THEIR EXPECTED LOW VALUES TONIGHT, WILL  
PROVIDE A FLOOR FOR TONIGHT'S LOW TEMPERATURES. VALUES ARE STILL  
EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE WILL LEAD TO A TRANQUIL  
THANKSGIVING AND FRIDAY. TROUGHING ALOFT WILL KEEP COOL  
CONDITIONS IN PLACE, BUT SOME TEMPERATURE MODERATION IS EXPECTED  
WITH INCREASED SUNSHINE. BY FRIDAY, HIGHS SHOULD BE BACK IN THE  
BALLPARK OF AVERAGE VALUES.  
 
THE NEXT HIGH-LATITUDE SYSTEM WILL STREAM THROUGH NORTHEAST  
ONTARIO EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY SWEEP ANOTHER  
RELATIVELY DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. SIMILAR TO  
YESTERDAY'S SYSTEM, THE MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL RESULT  
IN LIGHT RAIN, BUT HIGHER POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN  
HALF OF THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT, NORTHWEST FLOW GETS  
ESTABLISHED, BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF BACKLASH, LAKE-EFFECT  
SNOW SHOWERS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
BROAD TROUGHING WILL BRIEFLY CARRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
EVENTUALLY, THE STRONG SOUTHWEST CONUS RIDGE WILL DISLODGE AND  
MOVE EASTWARD. THIS WILL BRING OUR AREA ANOTHER ROUND OF  
TRANQUIL WEATHER TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE MIDDLE  
OF NEXT WEEK. SUBSTANTIAL TIMING DISAGREEMENT EXISTS FOR THE  
NEXT DISTURBANCE MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK, SO BROAD LOW CHANCE  
POPS WERE MAINTAINED.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
VFR AND BORDERLINE MVFR WILL PREVAIL IN STRATUS FOR A FEW HOURS  
BEFORE DISSIPATING RAPIDLY UNDER BACKING FLOW AND BUILDING HIGH  
PRESSURE. BIGGEST CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE WAS TO  
SLOW TO IMPROVEMENT TO VFR/ELIMINATE CEILINGS. EXPECT HIGH  
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO PASS OVERHEAD  
TOMORROW WITH NO FURTHER RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.  
 
NW WIND WILL SHIFT TO W-SW TOMORROW AND REMAIN UNDER 10KTS.  
   
OUTLOOK
 
 
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS FORECAST WITH A SATURDAY  
COLD FRONT.  
 

 
   
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
PA...NONE.  
WV...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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