642
FXUS61 KPBZ 200134
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
934 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
SYNOPSIS
A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL BRING PERIODIC SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
EVE RAOB PLOTS/STLT DATA SHOW AN UPR LVL WAVE OVR WV. THIS WL
CONT TO DRIFT SLOWLY EWD THRU MON. ISOLD SHWRS S OF PIT SHOULD
CONT TO DMNSH AND GRDLY END OVRNGT. REMOVED TSTMS FM THE FCST AS
INSTAB DROPS OFF. NR TERM MDL DATA SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS
DVLPG AREAS N-E OF PIT TNGT AS WELL. WL KEEP CHC POPS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS MAINLY E-SE OF PIT MON AS THE UPR WV BEGINS TO EXIT TO
THE E. MDL PROGS SHOW INSTAB SHOULD BE MINIMAL MON.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE DSPTG MON EVE AS THE UPR WAVE CONTS TO
MOVE OUT. LOW CHC FOR SHWRS/TSTMS RETURNS TUE AFTN...ALTHOUGH
SOME UPR AND MID LVL RIDGING AND LACK OF A GOOD TRIGGER SHOULD
HELP LMT ACTIVITY. TEMPS WL CONT MUCH ABV AVG.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE DISTRICT REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH
A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY WILL BRING
LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY THE RISK OF SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL. DRY WEATHER
CAN BE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE 40S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDS EXPD INTO THE EVE...EXCPT FOR DUJ WHERE IFR CIGS ARE
EXPD TO CONT OVRNGT. ELSW...COULD SEE SOME PTCHY STRATUS/MVFR BR
DVLPG OVRNGT. EXTENT OF THE STRATUS IS UNCERTAIN...WITH THE MOST
LIKELY PLACES TO SEE CIGS S-E OF PIT...AS WELL AS FKL/DUJ. CONDS
SHOULD RETURN TO VFR ACRS THE RGN MON MRNG. AN EXITING UPR LVL
WAVE MAY BRING A SHWR/TSTM E OF PIT BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR
MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.
OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
CHC FOR SHWR/TSTMS WL RETURN TUE AFTN AND INCR THRU THU EVE AS A
CDFNT APRCHS AND MOVES THRU. BLDG HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDS EXPD
FRI.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
07
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