544
FXUS61 KPBZ 071830
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
130 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. WENT JUST
UNDER MOS TONIGHT AS WITH LOW DEW POINTS AND POSSIBLE DECOUPLING
MAY BE ABLE TO RADIATE DOWN A BIT. NEAR WARM MOS SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
CONTINUED WARM AND DRY THROUGH MONDAY. MONDAY HIGH TEMPS WILL
REACH INTO THE 70S AND RECORDS MAY BE APPROACHED MAINLY AT
RELATIVELY NEW STATIONS. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THEN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
TUESDAY WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY OR
TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING, MAGNITUDE
OF COLD AIR, AND DEPTH OF UPPER/MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE. EARLY
PERIODS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL THUS BE OF GENERAL
PERSISTENCE WITH DECLINING PRECIP PROBABILITIES INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
THEREAFTER, QUICK MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES TO, THEN ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES IS EXPECTED WITH FLAT RIDGE PROJECTED OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS THROUGH FRIDAY. THAT RIDGE, WITH SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF
COAST STATES TO RETARD SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN, WILL
PROVIDE A DRY CLOSE TO THE WORK-WEEK.
BY SATURDAY, NEXT LOW/COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ON THE APPROACH SO PRECIP
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH A DECLINE IN
TEMPERATURE.
AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS MAY BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
CANADA. RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS HAS/WILL
GENERATE AFTERNOON WIND OF APPROXIMATELY 10 TO 12 KTS WITH GUSTS
SLIGHTLY OVER 20KTS.
WIND WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS MIXING DECREASES AND AS SURFACE
TROUGH/WEAK FRONT IS DRAGGED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. RECENT MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN POOLING MOISTURE ALONG THAT
BOUNDARY IN THE EARLY MORNING OF SUNDAY. HAVE THUS FORECAST SOME
VFR CEILINGS AT FKL AND DUJ AS PER EXPECTED PROGRESS OF THAT
WEAKENING FRONT, WHICH SHOULD WASH OUT RAPIDLY AS SUNDAY MORNING
PROGRESSES.
GENERAL VFR IS THEN EXPECTED UNTIL THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY, WITH A RETURN TO VFR WITH MID WEEK HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
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