513  
FXUS61 KPBZ 241410  
AFDPBZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA  
1010 AM EDT TUE APR 24 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW  
NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
WARM CONVEYOR BELT RAIN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW OVER THE  
TENNESSEE VALLEY HAS ENGULFED THE REGION. RAIN WILL CONTINUE  
THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS THEN A DRY SLOT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD.  
THIS WILL MAKE PRECIP MORE OFF AN ON. TAILORED POPS TO ACCOUNT  
FOR THIS DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS FROM SOUTH TO  
NORTH. WITH EAST- SOUTHEAST WIND, THIS WILL KEEP RAIN RATES LOW  
AND ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER NOT TO BECOME SATURATED.  
 
SHALLOW SERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO RESULT IN  
WIND GUSTS OF 25-35KT ON THE LEE OF THE RIDGES, THOUGH THE  
HIGHEST WINDS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN CAPPED ABOVE A TEMPERATURE  
INVERSION. LESSER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES ARE  
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM S-N THIS EVE AS THE BEST MOISTURE AND  
LIFT SHIFT N OF THE AREA. THE TN/OH VALLEY LOW IS EXPECTED TO  
OPEN AND BECOME PHASED WITH A TROUGH/UPPER LOW CROSSING THE  
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGION WED. SHOWER CHANCES  
SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN THE  
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE  
LOW SHOULD CONTINUE LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WED NIGHT.  
 
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA  
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE  
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
MODEL ENSEMBLES AND WPC PROGS INDICATE SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD  
RETURN LATE FRIDAY AND PART OF SATURDAY WITH A TROUGH CROSSING  
THE EASTERN CONUS. DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMING  
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST  
PERIOD UNDER A BUILDING EASTERN CONUS RIDGE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY START VFR, BUT LIGHT RAIN OVERSPREADING  
THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS AND ALLOW  
CLOUDS TO SLOWLY LOWER. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FROM SOUTH  
TO NORTH THIS MORNING AT MOST TERMINALS AS STEADIER RAIN  
ARRIVES, AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. SOME IFR  
CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO APPEAR LATE TONIGHT, EVEN AS SHOWERS  
BECOME SPOTTIER. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN GUST TO BETWEEN 15 AND  
25 KNOTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY OUT OF  
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST, BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR ALL SITES  
WITH SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE.  
 

 
   
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
PA...NONE.  
WV...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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