136
FXUS61 KPBZ 150625
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
125 AM EST MON DEC 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY. VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE A WARM UP
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- LAKE-EFFECT SNOW BANDS EXPECTED INTO EARLY MONDAY
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY ALONG THE RIDGES
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LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH, UNDER PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW. ALTHOUGH KPBZ RADAR
REFLECTIVITY APPEARS UNIMPRESSIVE, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS-
INCLUDING WEBCAMS AND ASOS VISIBILITY REPORTS--INDICATED ONGOING
IMPACTS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE RADAR BEAM OVERSHOOTING THE
SHALLOW COLD CLOUD LAYER AND MISSING THE SNOW BANDS. AS A
RESULT, WINTER HEADLINES ALONG AND NEAR I-80 WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH 7AM MONDAY. SNOW CHANCES WILL DECREASE LATE
MONDAY MORNING AS WINDS VEER MORE WESTERLY AND MOISTURE FEED
FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEAKENS.
THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT, WITH WIND
CHILL VALUES RANGING FROM -10F TO -20F, COLDEST AT ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 3.5KFT IN EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE LATE MONDAY MORNING WITH THE ONSET OF WARM ADVECTION
FROM THE WEST, AS 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE FROM -19C TO -12C
BETWEEN 10AM AND 1PM MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLD TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
- DRY AND WARMER ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
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WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AND
RESIDUAL COLD AIR ALOFT, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.
HOWEVER, CONDITIONS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MILDER COMPARED TO EARLY
MONDAY BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES.
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY, WITH RISING
HEIGHTS HELPING HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FREEZING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARMING TREND THROUGH MID-WEEK; QUICK COLD-SHOT ON FRIDAY.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY.
- RAIN POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
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CONTINUED EAST COAST RIDGING IS FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
INTO THURSDAY, WITH SMALL TEMPERATURE UNCERTAINTY. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES UP TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ON THURSDAY.
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSED THE GREAT LAKES AND
PUSHES A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD END
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE CROSSING COLD FRONT. DROPPING
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PROMPT A CHANGEOVER TO
RAIN/SNOW AND EVENTUALLY LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY MORNING.
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES ON FRIDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON TROUGH STRENGTH. AT THIS TIME, A WEAKER TROUGH IS MORE
LIKELY, LEADING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER LAKE EFFECT
CHANCES. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION ON FRIDAY WOULD MOSTLY BE
LIMITED TO AREAS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH AND IN THE RIDGES.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, ALL CLUSTERS INDICATE A RELAXATION TO
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WITH SLIGHT 500MB HEIGHT UNCERTAINTIES LIKELY
RESULTING FROM WEAK LONGWAVE TROUGHS/RIDGES AND QUICK-HITTING
SHORTWAVES. THIS PATTERN GENERALLY FAVORS NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE AND PERHAPS HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THAN
NORMAL THROUGH CHRISTMAS.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR FKL/DUJ WITH LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
- SKIES BEGIN TO SCATTER ON BY THIS AFTERNOON
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LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL SOUTH OF FKL/DUJ, WHILE SCATTERED
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE. WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE SNOW DEVELOPMENT BY
MORNING AS WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY. DRY ADVECTION AND MIXING
BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT CLOUDS DURING THE DAY WITH ALL PORTS VFR
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN DURING
THE DAY WITH INCREASED MIXING WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20KTS
EXPECTED AT MOST PORTS.
OUTLOOK... GENERAL VFR SHOULD LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN. RESTRICTIONS LOOK TO RETURN LATER
THURSDAY WITH AN APPROACHING LOW. MILD TEMPERATURES LEAN TOWARDS
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ007-008.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ009-
015-016.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ074-
076-078.
OH...NONE.
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ510>514.
SYNOPSIS...HEFFERAN
NEAR TERM...HEFFERAN
SHORT TERM...RACKLEY/LUPO
LONG TERM...RACKLEY/LUPO
AVIATION...88
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