308
FXUS61 KPBZ 210723
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
223 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DECK TRAPPED UNDER SURFACE HIGH HANGING OVER
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS WILL OPEN AT TIMES. PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE 50S LOOK GOOD. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN EARLY THEN THEN BEGIN TO
BREAK ALLOWING FOR COLDER READINGS AND DROP MIN TEMPS TOWARD NEW
MAV GUIDANCE.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE
SUNDAY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE TO THE VIRGINIA COAST
MONDAY. GFS AND NEW ECMWF SHOW MOISTURE FROM SYSTEM WORKING NORTH
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. TUESDAY WILL BE IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOW TO CLEAR AND SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN CLOUDY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DOMINATE THIS PERIOD WHICH WILL LEAD TO
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...WILL KEEP POPS CHANCE FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY MODELS ALSO COMING INTO LINE FOR A BIT OF A
COLDER SOLUTION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SINCE TIME RANGE IS SO FAR OUT DID NOT
LOWER TEMPERATURES DRAMATICALLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. SNOW
SHOWERS MIXING NOW LOOKS TO BE MORE DEFINITE AT NIGHT AND MAY
NEED TO ADD SNOW TO THANKSGIVING DAY AS WELL.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR 3-4KFT CEILINGS TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS ACROSS TAF SITES NORTH OF KPIT. WITH KZZV
ON THE EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...CLEARING MAY ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF PD OF MVFR VSBYS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...BREAKING
CIGS ACROSS THE SRN TERMINALS WITH CIGS LIFTING TO VFR EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT KDUJ AND KFKL BY 17Z SAT.
VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT AT KDUJ AND
KFKL WHERE MVFR CIGS WILL FINALLY ERODE BY SUNDAY MORNING. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CEILINGS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A KMGW-KLBE LINE. REDUCED
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY WHEN THE FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
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